Fantasy Baseball Advice

I went over the fantasy baseball implications of the Holliday trade for Holliday the other day. Now that the deal has been finalized, approximately three days later, I’ll go other the other parts of the trade. This part of the trade is also known as, “The Players That the Rockies Received from Beane as He Played the MLB Version of Let’s Make A Deal.” Dan O’Dowd, “I’ll take Door Number 3!” Announcer, “It’s…. Huston Street!” The Rockies fans groan. Anyway, here’s the other schmohawks that the Rockies received in the trade for Matt Holliday and some other fantasy baseball implications:

Huston Street - 2009 Vegas line for Huston Street is an Over/Under of 15 saves and a 60-Day DL trip. You need to know more? Okay, side note. At some point during the 2008 season, I mentioned that I owned Kerry Wood on a team. People commented that they were surprised since in the preseason of 2008 I was down on Wood. I said I owned Wood because everyone was down on Wood. He ended up being a late-round bargain. They’re zigging, man! Then zag. If the Rockies are saying Street is the closer and if he falls far enough to me, then I’m drafting him.  As always, SAGNOF.  I just know I’m going to end up with Street on a team or two or three. No one thinks he’s going to make it the whole season or get many saves. Whatevs, he might not. I’m still drafting him real late and taking his 15 saves. What, you don’t have a DL slot?

Joey Devine - I’ve already shown you my campaign pin for Devine in 2009. Unfortunately, the louder I sing his praises, the more Devine is going to be hyped up going into 2009 drafts. Make no mistake, this will not make him better, just more hyped. Make sure to keep those two separate in your mind.

Brad Ziegler - No one has come out and said Devine will be the A’s closer in 2009. I just think he will. Ziegler has “Setup man” written all over him. It was written on him by Devine while Ziegler was passed out drunk.

Carlos Gonzalez - Last year, Gonzalez did not show one sign that he was ready for the majors. He’s a decent prospect that needs to be grabbed in keeper and NL-Only leagues as an endgame option. He may not do a thing in 2009. His role will have to be watched in spring training.

Greg Smith - He was the recipient of terrible run support on the A’s (Shocker!), but now that the Rockies gave away their offensive centerpiece, they may look like the 2008 A’s in 2009. Greg Smith is a flyball pitcher heading to Coors — Hey, Gus, leave the balls in the humidor for another twenty minutes. I don’t think they’re done yet. — and Smith doesn’t strikeout many hitters. I want Ubaldo and Francis before Smith on my fantasy teams in 2009 and I don’t really want them either. Understand? Or am I being obtuse?

Guess what time it is? No, not three o’clock. It’s time for this week’s fantasy baseball buy/sell thingiemajig. Dur! As we move closer to the end of the season, I wanted to take this opening section to point out some hard facts. Arod is sleeping with a fifty-year-old lady. Ew! No, wait, that wasn’t what I wanted to point out. I wanted to say it’s now or never. Okay, I said that before, but now it really is. Don’t leave anything on the table. Or put it all on the table. Or whatever that inspirational poster with the guy rappelling a mountain says. If you’re thirty steals out in front of your nearest competition, why are you still starting Brian Roberts? He sucks. He’s not hitting as many home runs as Ty Wiggington. (Okay, he doesn’t suck, because he is hitting for a high average right now. But if you need home runs — big whoop! Or not! Depends on your need.) If you can’t gain any points in saves, why are you carrying seven closers? So my nearest competition can’t get any saves. Oh, well, that actually makes sense. As weird as it is to drop some players (Kinsler!), if they’re not helping you right now, they’re not helping you. You have, like, no time, people! P.O.Y.M.G.S.S. (Put On Your Make Grey Smile Shoes) Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Adam Wainwright - If he stays healthy, he might be the September Cy Young. Unfortunately, it’s a Zelda Rubinstein-sized if. (Which is about a 4′ 11″-sized if.)

Jo-Jo Reyes - Member that Campillo dude. Yeah, Reyes is him minus the innings.

Tom Gorzelanny - Easily could be in the Sell list, because, earlier in the year, he added the third suck in sucky-suck-suck. Since July, he’s been T to the -orrid in the minors at a 2.06 ERA and .91 WHIP. To misquote Wyclef, he’ll be back in September.

Pablo Sandoval - A lot has been made of his weight. Well, there’s a lot there to make of it. Oofa! Let’s just say, if Pablo Sandoval gets a single against the Brewers, leaving him and Prince Fielder both at first, everyone else on the field should shift their weight towards third to avoid a landslide. Might get some starts in front of Benji. He’s got some pizz-op.

Travis Metcalf - Three homers in three starts this week. Could be something, might be nothing. If you’re struggling at corner, you take a flier. He might lose all playing time with Blalock’s return, but as we know from knowing what we know, Blalock will get hurt as soon as he returns.

Juan Salas - Just called up from the minors. Middle relief numbers to make you feel alive with pleasure like a Newport.

Mark Reynolds - The other day I mentioned Reynolds could move to 2nd base when Justin Upton returns. Look at Reynolds’s numbers (77/24/85/.245/8). Now imagine them from a 2nd basemen. That’s almost a top five 2nd basemen and he’s better than Uggla. In keeper leagues, this could be huge.

Alexei Ramirez - As I mentioned in yesterday’s fantasy baseball keeper post, I fell in love with Alexei and I liked it! I hope my girlfriend don’t mind it! (Sorry, that stupid song is still stuck in my head.)

Jeff Kent - Yeah, he’s a douchebag, but he’s been hot since Manny’s come to town. Get involved!

SELL

Clayton Kershaw/Johnny Cueto/Edinson Volquez/Zach Greinke/Jair Jurrjens/Jorge Campillo/Ricky Nolasco/Justin Duchscherer/Mike Pelfrey/Any pitcher that is pitching far too many innings for their arm - I’m not saying you need to drop these guys outright (though I have started dropping a few them. I’m looking at you, Greinke, Campillo and Jurrjens. Also, if I had Dook-sheer, I wouldn’t be expecting anything from him.). You just need to make sure you’re not too reliant on any of them. They might go from usable to having starts skipped in the matter of seconds.

David Price - Could be here by September 1st, might be worth the flier in ‘09, he’s not ready yet.

Ian Kinsler - I know this injury hurt you, but there’s not much time left. You can’t be waiting around for him to return.

Chris Carpenter - You might get more from Tim Redding this year. Okay, bad example. But there still has to be more valuable guys on your waiver wire.

Brandon McCarthy - He’s on his way back to claim a Rangers’ rotation spot. In deep leagues, I could see the flier, but I’m not expecting anything from him. That’s not true. I’m expecting him to suck.

Ken Griffey Jr. - He’s looked like Ken Griffey Sr. all year.

Chris Davis - He’s hitting .211 in August with 2 HRs. Could he have a good September? Perhaps, but he’s a K machine. When I told you to pickup Chris Davis in June, I said, “Adam Dunn struckout 101 times in his last full year of the minors. Chris Davis struckout 150 times.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me! Now if Metcalf keeps hitting and Blalock returns and stays healthy, Davis may sit a few games a week. Sorry, but don’t shoot the messenger.

Huston Street - He’s owned in 83% of ESPN leagues. As usual, I assume 97% of ESPN’ers abandon their team so this ownership number means very little, but let’s assume just 7 people actually play ESPN fantasy baseball and out of those 7, 1 person still has Street on their team. That’s one person too many.

Carlos Lee is hurt. Bad. He broke his left pinkie finger sending him to the DL. This also can’t be good for his Dr. Evil impersonation. Chances are he won’t be back this year. I’ve gone ahead and cut him in a 15-team league. Currently, my Carlos Lee replacement is Mike Cameron/Austin Kearns. Mike Cameron’s been hot and… I can’t even justify Austin Kearns, though he did hit a home run yesterday. This hurts everyone in the Astros lineup and their pitching staff, which will now receive even less run support. Too bad, because, with that Randy Wolf acquisition, they were really looking like legit contenders for fifth place in the Wild Card standings. Now the Braves might have their number. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carl Crawford - The other “Carl loss” is our good friend, Carl Crawford. Looks like it was a bad year to predict he would finally show some power. However, it was a good year for me to trade him for Ryan Braun about two months ago. Phew. The right hand injury that forced Carl Crawford to the DL could force him out of action for the rest of the season. I would not drop Crawford just yet, because he thinks he’ll be back in 15 days. We’ll see. This opens up a spot for Rocco Baldelli to get quickly injured, Cliff Floyd to throw a tantrum and Gabe Gross to pickup the pieces. Hopefully you have different options than the Rays.

Chris Carpenter - Right triceps strain. At the best, gone for a start. At the worst, gone ’til March. You shouldn’t have been counting on Carpenter for much anyway.

Brad Lidge - Complaining of a sluggish shoulder. Hopefully no one puts salt on it. (Get it? Cause if you put salt on a slug…Oh, forget it.) Ryan Madson got the save yesterday. Chad Durbin got the save on Saturday. Probably will be some combination of the two (or even JC Romero, if the matchup is right) that will fill-in for Lidge. If this doesn’t turn into a 15-day DL stint for Lidge, I’d be shocked. If the Phillies push him through, it could turn into a “Lidge hopes to be ready for spring training”-type deal.

Orlando Hudson - Will need season-ending surgery to fix a dislocated wrist. If you were counting on O-Dog for anything, you have bigger fish to fry. This boosts Conor Jackson’s value a bit because he’ll be inserted into the three hole on a regular basis. Looks like Upton will have to find someone else to carry him around.

Aaron Harang - 4 IP, 8 ER. Good to see him pickup right where he left off.

Scott Rolen - Placed on the DL with a sore shoulder that has caused him problems in the past. Unless you’re in a league that only used aging vets that are drafted on name recognition alone, you probably didn’t have Rolen anyway. And, if you’re in a league like that, grab Aurilla. He’ll suit you just fine.

Cliff Lee - 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 K. The C. Lee that didn’t break any hearts this weekend.

Mike Hampton - 4 IP, 6 ER. After the game, he didn’t say, but should have said, “I sucked, but that shouldn’t surprise you.”

Todd Helton - If you just read his name and said to yourself, “Oh, wow! I totally forgot Todd Helton existed.” You’re not alone. Helton had a minor setback and now might not return this season.

Carlos Quentin - HR yesterday. 10th since the All-Star Break. Making a strong case for AL MVP and being pretty overvalued next year.

Manny Parra - 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats. Ah, to pitch against the Nats, if only you weren’t followed by Backne. Parra, “Hey, Billingsley, I saw Kuo blew your lead–” “Actually, Alyssa Milano is blowing my lead right now.”

Fernando Rodney - Got the save yesterday, but the Tigers made it a five run game in the bottom of the 8th so it wasn’t a traditional save. As to who would get the ball in a traditional save opportunity, whoever Leyland wants to point his yellow-stained finger towards. My guess is Rodney, Zumaya and Farnsworth, in that order.

Huston Street - Not sure how far down the depth chart Street’s fallen? He entered the 5th inning  yesterday and gave up 3 runs. Joey Devine might get a save before Street. (BTW, Street only had 18 saves in three quarters of the season. You gotta ask yourself how badly do you want those other five saves he might get.)

Lastings Milledge - Hit another HR yesterday. Has 5 HRs in the last ten games. Might give Mike Cameron a run for the least owned 20/20 man in the history of fantasy baseball.

Emilio Bonifacio - 0-for-6 and nary a hit all weekend. I’m giving him until the end of the week and then will reevaluate. To try and jumpstart Bonifacio, I’m wearing a rally merkin (Weird Thing of the Day) on my head.

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for $10 schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, Justin Speier)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Jose Veras, Damaso Marte)
5. Brad Lidge, PHI (Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson)
6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto, Matt Lindstrom)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton, David Weathers)
9. Salomon Torres, MIL (Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota)
10. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
11. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
12. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
14. George Sherrill, BAL (Fernando Cabrera/Jamie Walker/Jim Johnson)
15. Brian Fuentes, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
16. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
17. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton)
18. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going to a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and C.J. Wilson– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Kinsler in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Carlos Marmol/Kerry Wood, CHI (Bob Howry, Jeff Samardzija)
20. Billy Wagner, NYM (Eddie Kunz, Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez)
21. Huston Street, OAK (Santiago Casilla, Brad Ziegler, Alan Embree, Joey Devine)
22. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, Al Reyes)
23. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman)
24. Brandon Morrow/J.J. Putz, SEA (Sean Green)
25. Fernando Rodney, DET (Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Zumaya)
26. Masa Kobayashi/Rafael Perez, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
27. Chris Perez, STL (Kyle McClellan, Ryan Franklin)
28. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Luis Ayala, Saul Rivera)
29. C.J. Wilson/Eddie Guardado, TEX (Joaquin Benoit)
30. Tyler Yates/John Grabow/Denny Bautista/Corky Thatcher, PIT

Pudge (<—this nickname wasn’t always ironic) was traded to the Yankees for Kyle Farnsworth, a cuddle boy if there ever was one. This moves yawnstipates me from a fantasy perspective. Farnsworth should not take over as closer, but that does not mean he won’t take over as closer. I think it’s still Rodney, with Zumaya and Farnsworth battling over holds. Did I take a flier on Farnsworth in any leagues? Of course, I did. I’m like Pookie from New Jack City and saves are my crack. It didn’t help anyone’s cause that Rodney blew a save last night. It pains me to say this, but I don’t think Farnsworth is as far out of the closer picture as he should be. Though the Tigers may still go after Street or another reliever. As for the Yankees, I-Rod is reunited with A-Rod. Now they just need to find a really manly looking woman and have a menage-a-trois. Pudge is better than The Oldest of the Catching Molina Brothers and Chad Moeller (though I will miss him on my Razzball team. Hopefully Josh Bard can pull his dead weight.). Pudge waived his no-trade clause for the opportunity to let the NY Media figure out ways to blame him for the Yankees inevitable early exit from the playoffs. I say if Pudge didn’t want to be in Detroit, Tigers fans should be glad to get rid of him. Pudge will probably bat towards the bottom of the Yankees lineup and do pretty much what he was doing for the Tigers. This does little to his value. Who this trade really affects fantasy-wise is Brandon Inge. Rudy became (very mildly) giddy to pickup Inge in one league. As he put it, “.240 and 20 HRs at 3rd is George Foster-ugly. That at catcher, I’ll take it and like it.” Well said, Rudy. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Manny Ramirez - Traded to Marlins? Perhaps. Manny in Florida makes the NL East more fun. (And if you’re an AL fan, trust me, the NL East is already fun. Hanley, Wright, Howard, Utley, Reyes, Brian Schneider, the list goes on) The Sox supposedly want Bay. They nixed Kemp. This confuses me. Is Kemp too raw? Not enough power yet? The Sox have become the Yankees and they can’t wait longer than one winter for a player to fully mature? Can’t be, Manny still hasn’t matured. Either way, Manny anywhere is Manny being Manny. You can’t mess with his head cause he’s like Robert DeNiro in Awakenings. Manny, you’re wearing a pancake on your head. Yeah, so? As for Bay in Boston, this has the upside of a better lineup, but Bay seems like too much of a thinker and Boston could get in his head. I’m 50/50 on whether this is a boon or bust for Bay if it happens. You make the call!

Tim Hudson - Dr. Grisly Andrews says Hudson’s going on his Xmas card list under the category, “Tommy John recipients.” Drop Hudson, if you haven’t yet. Unless you’re stockpiling for 2010, when we will be taking flying cars to our fantasy baseball drafts. Mark my words!

Dioner Navarro - I figured since I mentioned Pudge and Inge, I may as well throw a Razz-bone to Dioner. It’s been a while since I’ve mentioned him. Regular readers now I loved him back in May when he first returned from the DL. Well, he’s still hitting .300, but, honestly, this is like a Keppinger .300. I think Yunel excited me more– Scratch that, I think Mini-Me’s sex tape excited me more. The only positive is Dioner is a poor man’s Mauer at an eighth of the price. Yawnstipating at best. I would consider an Inge look if you’re okay at average.

Kelly Shoppach - 2 HRs. If you’re keeping score at home. Shoppach 11 HRs, VMart 0. If I had access to the government’s time machine (and they have one!), then I’d go back in time to March 2008 and draft Shoppach as the first catcher off the board in every league just so I can see my leaguemates’ looks. (I’d still draft Rios in the third round. I’m a slacker like my father!)

Alexi Casilla - Done for the year. Just as he was on his way to the coveted 5/5 club. There’s always next year!

Huston Street - 1 ER and the loss. Somehow he’s still an Athletic and uninjured. Sometimes you roll snake eyes and sometimes you roll your eyes.

Bobby Abreu - 2 HRs and batting .400 since the All-Star break. Next year you’ll look at 2008’s stats which will be 20/20/.310 and you’ll have no idea how Abreu did that last year, so you’ll refuse to draft him again. Then next year, he’ll get 20/20/.310 and you’ll have no idea how he did that, so the following year… Do you see where this is going?

Carlos Pena - 1-for-4, HR. As I said in the rankings of top 100 for the 2nd half, Pena coul actually put up decent numbers. He hit 7 HRs in July. The most HRs for any month this season.

Rocco Baldelli - Set to come off the DL this weekend. However, last time he was due to return, he stubbed his toe on his DL history and broke his foot, or some shizz. Caveat emptor, for those in Latin America.

Adam Wainwright - Had a setback in his bullpen session and now won’t go on his rehab assignment until August. Guys, bad news, I don’t think we’re seeing Wainwright until September at the earliest and maybe not at all.  The mouth on the lefthand side of the screen says, “Contingency.” The mouth on the righthand side says, “Plans.”

Chad Billingsley - Shutout, 8 Ks. I said a while back that he was my very early 2009 Cy Young prediction. Unfortunately, now he’s gone and made himself look too good and he’s not going to be a bargain at all next year. Oh, well.

Cliff Lee - 5 IP, 6 ER. I’m under contractual obligation to only mention when he pitches poorly. Something I signed at the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston.

Shane Victorino - HR yesterday. Now has one more than Alexis Rios. I’m so keen-o on Shane Victorino…

Dan Uggla - HR yesterday. Member this dude? In May, he was so going to bat .400 and hit 50 HRs. Member that? Yeah, he hit .145 in July and .122 after the All-Star game. cough Told ya so. cough

Brandon Inge - Hit a HR. Pudge is gone and now you got a fatty for Inge.

Ben Francisco - 2 HRs and 4-for-7. Still batting third for the Indians. Yeah, the Indians collapsed this year. Hafner and VMart should be forced to work one of those winter fantasy camps where the Account Manager for your company goes to play ball with Mike Pagliarulo.

Manny Parra - 5.1 IP, 5 ER, Had a 3.05 Home ERA coming into today’s start. Then the Cubs happened.  I like Parra going forward, but you have to expect bumps. If you can’t handle bumps, a rookie pitcher is not the way to go.

Chad Gaudin - 1.54 ERA in almost 14 IP. As most of youse know, I’m a big believer in solid middle relievers balancing your ratios. Gaudin can help.

Wandy Rodriguez - 4.2 IP, 6 ER. It’s like Daniel Cabrera and Oliver Perez had a son and they named him Wandy.

Ray Durham - Ray Ray started second game in the row over Weeks. From the dugout, on his cellphone, Rickie Weeks, “Hey, whatcha doing?” Giambi, “Watching Sexson strikeout.” Weeks, “Tell me about it. If they wanted a lousy 2nd basemen, they had me!” Giambi, “I know! What, I wasn’t striking out enough for them? That can be fixed. The only thing I can’t do is tall. I guess that’s what they wanted!” Weeks, “Durham’s not even tall. I don’t get it.”