Fantasy Baseball Advice

David Robertson to the DL for three weeks with a left oblique strain.  2009 was the Year of the Oblique, then there was the Middle Infieluenza Outbreak of Twenty-Ten, and 2011 was a war between General Soreness and Major Discomfort.  This year is The Closepocalypse.  If you’re a closer and gonna go to the DL, at least get your make-believe plague right. (Oh no, I Can Haz Razzburger has taken over the site!!!  Guys and four girl readers, picture the earth is a lolzpop, then this is The Closepocalypse.  My apologies, but our advertisers asked if I could bring in more of the teenaged Asian girl demographic.)  So Rafael Soriano will continue to get saves.  I wouldn’t assume the Yankeensteins will just go to Robertson when he’s healthy, so it’s imperative and other serious-sounding words to grab Soriano.  Bee tee dubya, it’s crazy how much Soriano sounds like Sanrio, right?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brett Lawrie – Got two marginal-to-bad strike calls on him and went DRUNK HULK on the ump.  DRUNK HULK WISH UMP BAD THINGS LIKE HAVE TO TEACH FIELDING TO EDWIN ENCARNACION.  I hope the fact that Lawrie was right about the lousy calls gives him solace when he gets his 5-10 game suspension.

Freddie Freeman – Day-to-day with corneal abrasion.  I always thought corneal abrasion was being constipated after you ate corn.  Eh, what do I know?

Kevin Youkilis – On Wednesday, he will begin a minor league assignment.  That assignment is to re-injure himself so Middlebrooks can keep playing.  If he fails, Middlebrooks will be back in the minors in a week.

Josh Beckett – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Nothing kills the inspiration for country song writing like a start vs. the Mariners.

Alfonso Soriano – Ended his HR drought on his 116th AB.  He’s also at 1 SB.  He went from 40/40 to probably 40 in 10 years.

Bryan LaHair – 1-for-4 with his 10th homer.  *phone rings*  “This is Grey.”  “LaHair  LaHere.  Sell this!”  *dial tone*

Chris Heisey – Has now started three games in a row and is 6 for his last 7.  In mixed leagues, it’s still wait and see right now, but he’s got a nice bat if Dusty would stop chewing on his toothpick long enough to let him play.

Johnny Cueto – 4 IP, 5 ER and his ERA is still 1.89.  Ridiculous.  I wouldn’t freak out just yet, ERAs aren’t meant to be that low.  Lance Lynn, “Shh!”

Matt Carpenter – 1-for-4 with his third homer as Berkman sat out sore.  Well, at least I didn’t have to talk about Craig’s three hits.  D’oh!

Jon Jay – Onto the DL with shoulder soreness.  Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman can shift over to CF if the Cards schedule all home games in 2007.  Short of that, it’s going to be a blahtoon of Skip Schumacker and Shane “Reggie Cleveland All-Star” Robinson in CF.  If you don’t have the DL room, feel free to drop Jay in shallow leagues.

Jason Motte – 1 IP, 1 ER as he blew his 2nd save, but Dolis returned volley with a run, so Motte got the win.  With The Closepocalypse, it’s a wonder some games ever end.

Bartolo Colon – 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 12 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Oh, no, Bartolo needs another collagen injection!  FWIWuertz, there should be a DRUNK BARTOLO Twitter account.

Cliff Lee – Pitched 8 innings of one run, 10 K ball against the Astros, but he still couldn’t earn his 1st win of the year because of a blown save by Chad Qualls.  Really?  Chad Qualls?  Fine, Papelbon needs a breather now and then but that’s the 2nd best option in the Phillies’ pen?  Ruben Amaro is tugging on something and it ain’t no McGraw.

Hunter Pence – 3-for-5 with his 8th and 9th homers, raising his RBIs to 25.  You can set your watch by Pence’s stats, and right now it’s 9:25.

Vance Worley – Scratched due to a sore arm.  If it’s sore, stop scratching!

Mike Moustakas – Hit his 5th homer yesterday.  Go, go, go, go, go, go, go…  It’s Greek Lightning!

Colby Lewis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  We talk a bit about Colby later today in our podcast.  You can hardly wait.  No, you!

Scott Van Slyke – 0-for-4 as he got the start in the Dodgers’ outfield (and in the three hole), and will continue (to start in the outfield) while Kemp’s on the DL.  In Triple-A this year, he had 8 homers and a .336 average, showing solid plate discipline, but that was in the PCL.  Van Slyke looks like a ‘just okay’ grab for NL-Only leagues if you’re an outfielder down.  I will say this, he’s a much better fielder than Bobby Bonilla’s son.

Jake Peavy – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Cruised through 5 innings against the tough Tiger lineup, then got blasted for six in the 6th.  Ventura should’ve pulled him before he gave up the 3rd/4th/5th runs on a homer to Ryan friggin’ Raburn.  I think Ventura went to pull him out and Peavy’s southern drawl reminded him of Nolan Ryan and he wanted him to suffer.

Travis Ishikawa – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and 2 homers.  Eh, he’s nothing but a deep NL-Only flyer. Does that make sensei?  See, he is Sucky-san.

Jose Valverde – Left yesterday’s game with back stiffness that isn’t supposed to be serious.  Too bad, I was hoping for a reason why he’s been so terrible all year.  Octavio Dotel ended up saving the game after allowing two runs to be tacked onto Valverde’s line.  Thanks, friend!  I grabbed Benoit then dropped him immediately for Dotel.  My figuring is Dotel has a bit more closer experience.  He’s cagey!  It could easily be Benoit who sees saves too.  If anyone knows exactly which closer will be used while Valverde is on the mend, Dotel!

Max Scherzer – 4 IP, 5 ER.  You know how they’re doing that dopey MLB cave thing where they take a bunch of fans and subject them to every inning of every game like it’s Clockwork Orange?  I have a spinoff for MLB.  Tell one guy, while he’s been cooped up in the fan cave for the last two months, the entire west coast was wiped out due to an earthquake.  Then compare that heart rate with his when he owns both Scherzer and Gallardo in fantasy.

Anthony Bass – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  This comes two starts after he gave up 6 ER to Miami, so I’d grab Bass, but get ready to throw him back.

Josh Johnson – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks with his first win, but second quality start in a row.  By Josh, I think he’s got it!  Sorry, that’s terrible.

Omar Infante – 4-for-5, 1 run and 2 RBIs.  Okay, I’d trade you Zack Cozart for Infante right now.  Can we make that happen?

Bryce Harper – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  On the bright side, ESPN’s 24 hour Harper news cycle has a 2nd highlight.

Stephen Strasburg – 4 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  The sub-par start was due to him being bothered by the ointment, Hot Stuff, in his groin area.  Now when he’s pitching well, Nats fans can yell, “It’s da bomb!” and when he’s pitching poorly, they can yell, “It’s da balm!”

Ervin Santana – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Pitchers like Ervin should have their own category.  They’re not Hodgepadres.  They’re not Marginers.  They’re mixed league starters that are must-starts against weaker offenses, then you pray in other starts.  Maybe you suggest a glossary term in the comments.

Albert Pujols – 3-for-4, 2 RBIs.  And just like that he’s hitting .212!  Yeah, that’s still not so good.

Mike Trout – 3-for-4, 3 runs and a slam (3) and legs (3).  Maybe he can have a half of a blurb on the ticker right when ESPN HARPER is going to commercial.

Adam Jones – 2-for-3, 2 runs and also a slam (11) and legs (6).  Let’s play a little game.  Who’s higher on the Razzball Player Rater?  Ryan Braun or Jones?  Bruce or Jones?

Wei-Yin Chen – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Lowered his ERA to 2.45 but unless I lowered my standards (see what I did there?) I wouldn’t pick him up in a mixed league.

Elliot Johnson – 2-for-4, I’m not going to point out again that he’s hot but I will point out that I’m not pointing out that he’s hot.

Alex Cobb – Sounds like he could take Niemann’s spot in the rotation.  He didn’t exactly shine last year in his call-up (6+ K/9, 3.90 xFIP), but in the minors he was able to push his K-rate towards 9 with decent ratios.  In AL-Only leagues, I’d grab him if you need to *pinkie to mouth* Cobble together some pitching.  And that was corny on the Cobb.  I’m on a roll!  Literally, it’s pumpernickel.

Derek Lowe – 9 IP, 0 ER, 10 baserunners, 0 Ks vs. Twins.  It was throwback day at Target Field.  Derek Lowe pitched like it was 2002, and the Twins hit like it was the Dead Ball Era.

Michael Brantley – 2-for-4 with a steal.  Now hitting around .350 in the last week with one steal.  Well, it’s better than batting .150 with nothing.  Hey, Hosmer!

Shin Soo-Choo – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 1 RBI and his 2nd homer.  He was Soo-Overdue.

A.J. Pierzynski – 5-for-5. 3 RBIs, 2 runs with 4 singles and a double.  Solid year for A.J. (.288, 24 RBIs is 4 more than Konerko) although I keep thinking he’s on Arizona.  That’s A.J. Pollock which is really close depending on how you pronounce it.

Yoenis Cespedes – Cleared for all baseball activities except hitting.  Cool, he can spit and grab himself now.

Manny Ramirez – Billy Beane knows that the Johnny Gomes show isn’t going to do too well in summer re-runs so get ready for May 30th when Manny brings his brand of zany mediocrity to Oakland’s part-time DH slot.  His show is called, “Once Too Manny” with Jerry Blevins as The Bleaver.

The answer to the pregunta, “Que es CarGo?” no longer requires an obligatory snail reference as he ended his 15 game homerless streak to start 2012 with 2 HRs against the Pirates, going 3-for-4 with 4 RBIs. He’s never going to hit .336 again like he did in 2010 (doubt he’ll ever hit .300 with his K-rate) but he is one of the few players that has legitimate 30 HR/20 SB potential. He had a similarly slow start last year before a great May/June (11 HR, 10 SB, .300+ AVG). If you can get a CarGo owner to sell low for a 3rd round or later OF like Jay Bruce or Adam Jones, sign that waybill or stick your hand in one of their many pockets or some other strained metaphor. Other fantasy baseball news….

Yu Darvish - Darvish out-samurai’d Kuroda with an 8 1/3 IP, 10K, 9 baserunner, 119 pitch effort against the Yankees. That’s 3-0 now for Darvish with wins against the Tigers and Yankees. Even better, he had only 2 BBs after entering the game with 14 walks in his first 3 outings. He has the stuff to put up 20 wins and 200 Ks but I’m not sold just yet that he’ll be able to maintain his control or hair color.

Johan Santana – Great start by Johan – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 Ks – that didn’t net a win because the Mets have yet to score for him in 4 starts. It’s hard to jump on board the Santanawagon based on his velocity to date (88 MPH on the fastball) but even a return of 2008-2009 Santana (8 K/9 and near 3.00 ERA) would be a nice return given his draft slot. Maybe they’d have more money to build around Santana if they paid him in Madoff shares.

Shin-Soo Choo - Left the game with left hamstring tightness – which was a relief (as a multi-team owner) as he was pinch-hit for with Jason Donald with the bases loaded. If he wasn’t physically hurt, that kind of thing would have to mentally hurt. He might miss a game but the Shin-Soo Choo train should be running again in no time.

Jair Jurrjens – Demoted to AAA after a ghastly first 4 starts – 16 IP, 30 Hits, 17 ER, 10 BB(!), 8 Ks. He’s not a great pitcher but he’s managed two very good ERA seasons (despite poor FIP) in 2009 (2.60 ERA vs. 3.68 FIP) and 2011 (2.96 ERA vs. 3.99 FIP). Or maybe he is just the living proof of Saberhagenmetrics and you should stash him for next year.

Josh Johnson – The Mets seem to be running a Slumpbuster service for aces – one day after giving Lincecum his first win in a WHIP-filled 5 innings, Josh Johnson threw a 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 K gem. He’s had a rough start in his first couple of starts (16 IP, 8 K) but his performance should be fine as long as he stays healthy. And a guy who jumps from the roof of a skyscraper should be fine as long as he remains airborne.

Andrew McCutchen – Finally some RBIs for the Dread Pirate! 17 singles and 3 doubles in 15 games resulted in only 2 RBIs to start the year but he got 3 RBIs last night on a groundout and 2-run double. I think the braiding session between him, Presley, and Tabata really paid dividends.

Tom Milone – Earned a win with an 8 IP, 3 hits, 5 K, 0 BB gem against the White Sox. He’s never going to be a dominant K guy but he’s turning into a must-start at least for home starts – even if his name reminds me of a loser’s MySpace friend list (yes, I know…what non-loser has MySpace….it’s creative license).

David Price – Complete game shutout against the Angels. He must’ve been mad at Arte Moreno for saying he wasn’t an object during the Pujols negotiations.

Mike Aviles - 4 for 5 with 2 doubles, a HR, 2 runs and 3 RBI against Nick Hackburn and the Twins. Aviles now has 3 HRs and is hitting well over .300. Not to mention the trifecta in position eligibilty (2B/SS/3B). Definite sell high candidate as he seems to have a meteoric streak like this every year and then falls down to Earth.

David Ortiz – Big Papi is hitting .444 with 3 HRs so far. He really seems to be physically and emotionally into the game.

Rex Brothers – The Rex Brothers tag-teamed on a few of our teams’ ERA/WHIPs with a disastrous 4 batters – double, single, double, walk – against the season-long slumping Pirates. That’s now two straight outings where he got no outs (so two straight ings?). Love his K potential and he might have an outside chance at the closer gig at some point….but he’s unownable in mixed leagues right now and near unplayable in NL-only leagues.

Hunter Pence - Put his owners and Phillie fans through the ringer the last couple days. Hurt his shoulder over the weekend, sat on Monday, had an MRI during the day on Tuesday, was twurmered (tweet murmur) to be sitting today, and then hit a 2-run HR at night. Way to put the Pence in suspense, Hunter.

Matt Wieters – HR #6. Take note – next time there’s a hyped catcher, just wait a couple years before drafting them high.

Tony Campana – Second straight 2 SB game for Campana – even if the 2nd was an AWFUL call. Cuz safe ain’t got no face either.

Max Scherzer – Not cool, Max. It’s one thing to get blasted by the Red Sox in your first start of the season but giving up 5 ER and 12 baserunners in 5 innings at home against Seattle is like a surprise nut punch.

Gerardo Parra - 3rd SB in 6 games for Parra. SAGNOF!

Chris Perez - That’s 7 straight converted saves for Chris Perez with only 1 ER. He’s anything but a sure bet this year (5 K / 4 BB in 10 IP this year) but, if I was Pestano, I’d pull a Delilah and cut his mullet in his sleep.

Vance Worley – A very impressive start (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks) on a night where the ball was carrying at Chase Field (5 HRs in the game). He’s now at about 163 MLB IP with 150 Ks and a 1.22 WHIP. I think I’m catching the VW bug.

Craig Kimbrel – Got the save after giving up 1 Hit, 1 BB, and, of course, getting 3 strikeouts. Can we start calling a 3 K inning for a save a ‘Kimbrel’?

Jose Altuve - The slam and legs for Altuve. That’s 3 SBs in the past 5 games. The .350 AVG is inflated by a lucky BABIP but Altuve’s showing an improved eye (same amount of BBs this year as he did in 3x the PAs last year) which should only help his runs and SBs. If only his last name didn’t make him sound like a terrorist.

Mike Pelfrey – There are murmurs that Pelfrey may have a partially torn UCL and be sent to Dr. Freeze for Tommy John surgery – or at least Sandy Alderson can’t ‘rule this out’. He’s like bizarro-Minaya – overreporting possible injuries vs. underreport confirmed injuries. “You know, Mr. Met may very well be a man in costume who drank too much nerve tonic and suffered the same ill effects as Ken Griffey Jr. in the Simpsons ‘Homer at the Bat’ episode.”

In the doubleheader, Nate Schierholtz went 6-for-10 with a homer, 2 runs, 3 RBIs, steal and back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-etc. starts from Bochy, go ahead with your big head self!  “This is the year Schierholtz breaks out!  And fill up my Merlot!”  That’s every Giants fan for the last three years.  Then within a few weeks, he’s usually hurt.  If Schierholtz is indeed German for pantyhose, he sure gets rips in them quickly.  Maybe he should bathe in clear nail polish.  (See, ladies, Grey doesn’t forget about you.)  Schierholtz has power, he just needs to stay healthy.  For now, I’d pick him up in all leagues.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tim Lincecum – Good news:  5 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  Bad news: 4 hits, 5 walks, 108 pitches.  Reminds me of my stat lines when playing backyard Wiffle Ball.  Maybe Timmy needs to throw to a Pitchback instead of a Posey.

Mike Gonzalez – Boras said Gonzalez is expected to sign with a club in the next ten days.  Boras better get a deal fast before the terrible closer bubble bursts.

Lorenzo Cain – Expected to come off the DL on Friday.  Make room in your fantasy cupboard for Cain…Sugar!

Josh Donaldson – After starting the year on a sub-.100 anti-tear, the A’s brushed him aside like the ABC makeup lady used to do to his grandfather’s hair.  He will be sorely missed by opposing pitchers, Fantasy Razzball managers, and frustrated owners in 2-catcher leagues who hoped he could outperform the Barajii of the league.

Adrian Beltre – Should return soon as the MRI showed his leg was normal.  Right above the foot and below the hip.

Francisco Liriano – Twins will skip his next start.  Guess that’s easier and more legal than getting John McDonald to drop a knee on his head.

Josh Willingham – Out until Friday on maternity leave.  A lesson in the birds and the bees brought to you by Grey Albright:  Nine months ago there was a Drillingham with a throbbing lardon, asking to porker and now there’s a baby back.

Derek Holland – 6 IP, 7 ER, 13 baserunners, 1 K.  An embarrassment to pitchers and mustaches everywhere.

Josh Hamilton – 1-for-4 with his 8th homer as everyone who didn’t draft Hamilton continues to have their balloon Burrst.

Hunter Pence – Missed yesterday with a sore shoulder.  Chase Utley scoffed and raised him a sore everything.

Michael Bowden – The key piece in the Byrd trade is headed to the bullpen as predicted here first after reading it elsewhere.  He was a top pitching prospect once, but had a pedestrian K-rate as a starter in AAA so they turned him into a closer where he showed some signs of dominance (10+ K/9).  Nothing to see right now, but, if he has some early success and Marmol is traded (as I think he will be), Bowden could be saving games by the end of the year.

Cody Ross – 2 HRs yesterday and another one on Saturday (his last game).  Hot schmotato!

Daniel Bard – Shut the door yesterday in the 8th inning, but Bobby Valentine said that there’s no “great temptation” to have Bard stay in the bullpen.  In related news, Valentine is going for psychological testing.

Jake Peavy – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Now has an ERA of 1.88.  I told you to draft him in the preseason, I drafted him in the preseason and then I dropped him.  Why do you make me rue?  I don’t wish to rue.  I’m fine with no ruing.  I’m stirring butter and flour in my soul!

Alex Rios – 3-for-5, hitting .360 on the season and hitting about .500 over the last week.  Cust kayin’.

Dontrelle Willis – The O’s confirmed that they signed Willis.  This was hilarious to me.  I imagine the O’s front office said, “Dah!  Yes, we signed Willis.  Stop mocking us!”

Chris Capuano – 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Is it the Year of the Cap?  Not probably, no.  But he could have end of the rotation appeal in mixed leagues and be one of those guys that’s cheap in NL-Only leagues that can really help you.

Michael Pineda – Headed for an MRI on Tuesday.  Here’s the Cliff Notes of a book I wrote (besides this one).  The name of this other book, “Signs of Trouble for Your Fantasy Starter.”  Chapter One:  If your starter is shut down and almost a month later they need an MRI, it’s not good.

CC Sabathia – 8 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks as he has an ERA of 5.27. Without looking at our Player Rater, I’m guessing his FIP is much lower.

Derek Jeter – 4-for-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI, batting .411.  So is he an Early Bird Special or a (Fill-in blank for term of older player who has a renaissance year.  Regarding that term that I asked for with Beltran last week.  I liked Ponce De Leon-g Balls, Hologram Tupac and Dead Cat Bounce, but Rudy nixed them.)?

Dillon Gee – 6 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  He alternated good start/bad start last year and he’s continuing this trend.  It’s pretty uncanny.  It’s like his job is to rope in and frustrate streamers and he takes his job very seriously.

Jason Bay – Left yesterday’s game with bruised ribs, which is nowhere near as delicious as braised ribs.

Hideki Matsui – Rumored to be signing a minor league deal with the Rays.  The Rays hope he still has a little left in the tank if they need a lefty DH.  Matsui just wants a job and heard good things about their potato chips.

Brandon Morrow – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Can we get Scooby on the Case of Morrow’s Missing Ks?  He only had 2 starts all last year of 3 Ks or less and he’s already had 3 starts this year like that and his other start was a 4 K effort.  His velocity didn’t look bad last night, but I’m starting to get concerned.  A guy who walks as many as he does (though he didn’t yesterday), isn’t very cute without Ks.

Krispie Young – Won’t return when his DL stint is up in 15 days.  With a ligament tear in his shoulder?  Really?  Here I thought a ligament tear was a good thing.  Just when you think you got the world figured out.  Wow.  File that in the surpriseapedia.

Wade Miley – 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Phillies (Just think, Phils fans, in another 25 years your team will be good again, not like the Red Sox who have to wait 80 years.), and Bauer’s call-up just took two steps back with this Miley effort.  The key word with Miley is serviceable.  That makes for good real world pitching and only matchups appeal in fantasy.

Justin Upton – 2-for-3, 2 runs, 2 RBIs as he hit his first homer.  Formally document it:  In the nick of time, Justin.

Eric Hosmer – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in 3 games and 4th on the year.  He’s still hitting .203, but I bet he’s about to go on a tear and be hitting near .260 by this time next week.  Get it, Hosmer, get it!

Tony Campana – 1-for-1 with 2 steals.  He stole 2nd base so fast that he actually overran it, ran all the way around the globe, causing time to rewind, and allowing him to steal 2nd again.

Jason Motte – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and the blown save.  What a follower!  Ooh, all the cool closers are blowing games so he figured he would too.

Bill Hall – Signing a deal with the Orioles to replace Josh Bell on the Triple-A roster.  Bell to Hall?  This is a big score for the equipment manager.

Went over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2011. Guess what’s next!  No, not pitchers. Read the title, man.  In 2010, there were only 5 outfielders that hit 30 homers, this year there were 9.  It isn’t exactly like a bleached Sammy Sosa is sticking players with needles, but at least the rich got a little richer — yay, capitalism!  Steals were still in abundance, and that doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere any time soon.  There were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases with Michael Bourn still eating the baby out of the king cake.  Since outfield is a deep position, I’m going to turn this one to 40.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Matt Kemp – In the preseason, I ranked him 12th overall for all players.  Find another ‘pert who ranked him that high last year.  You’re wasting your time, you won’t find them.  I ranked him as the 2nd outfielder overall.  Just off Ryan Braun.  He was drafted on average 26th overall and some ‘perts had him in the 40′s.  He wasn’t an obvious pick.  2010 was not a good year, but he dropped his ball and anchor — or is it whips and chains? — and asked you to say his name.  In the preseason, I said, “A total off year in 2010.  That’s clear.  He still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases.  Sure, he hit .249, but he’s a career .285 hitter and his BABIP shows he was horribly unlucky last year.  Yes, his Ks went up, but what happens when someone is unlucky?  They press and start swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone.  At 26 years old for the majority of 2011, now is not the time to give up on Kemp.”  You can’t make that shizz up.  Okay, you can, but it would be pretty easy to double-check it.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  100/30/105/.285/22, Final Numbers: 115/39/126/.324/40

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – And as right as I was on Kemp, I didn’t see any of this Ellsbury season coming.  About a month into the season I even compared Ellsbury to Gardner.  While Gardner didn’t have a bad season, Ellsbury came out of nowhere with power that made him way more valuable.  But the whole “came out of nowhere” thing makes me think we’re looking at a career year for Ellsbury.  Preseason Rank #21, 2011 Projections:  90/7/70/.290/45, Final Numbers: 119/32/105/.321/39

3. Ryan Braun – In honor of The Hebrew Hammer, I wrote this about three weeks ago on Yom Kippur so I’ll make this fast.  Zing!  BTW, what’s the only thing you’re allowed to eat during Yom Kippur?  Atone-mints.  Zadow!  The fact that Braun wasn’t the number one outfielder with the year he had is more an (old) testament to the guys above him.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/32/120/.295/15, Final Numbers:  109/33/111/.332/33

4. Curtis Granderson – It sure was fun while it was going on, but now that Grandy’s 2011 is over it’s time to get real, I mean, was he for real?  God, no.  Will depend on where he gets drafted next year, but off the top of my head I’ll say he will be overrated next year.  Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.260/15, Final Numbers:  136/41/119/.262/25

5. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post.

6. Justin Upton – There’s guys that will repeat 2011 for a few years if they can avoid injury like Braun and there’s guys like Grandy and Melky.  Upton’s not a Melky or Grandy.  He’s a Braun.  Though Upton’s a lot more the Upton we saw this year than Braun was the Braun that we saw this year.  And that sentence wasn’t half as confusing in my head.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  85/26/95/.270/20, Final Numbers:  105/31/88/.289/21

7. Michael Bourn – There’s a few Razzball concepts that just work perfectly, if I can be so immodest.  SAGNOF is one.  It becomes apparent when you see ESPN rank someone like Bourn 7th overall.  Imagine on April 15th you were to trade Bourn straight up for Justin Upton then grab someone off waivers like Coco Crisp.  Your league would’ve had a conniption.  People would’ve immediately started sending notarized letters to your commissioner, using synonyms for unfair that they found in the thesaurus.  Preseason Rank #40 1/2, 2011 Projections:  80/3/40/.265/45, Final Numbers: 94/2/50/.294/61

8. Melky Cabrera – First player to come out of nowhere, but I don’t think he was the 8th ranked outfielder.  (I know it seems like I recap the players according to the ESPN Player Rater then disagree with it every step of the way, but c’est la vie, as Francouer would say.)  Melky’s stats made him a great third outfielder, solid across the board production.  As for where this season from Melky came from, he’s being seriously aided by plate appearances.  706 PA’s last year for 18 homers and 20 steals?  If his PA’s fall into the 550 range as they had most years prior to 2011, his stats are gonna look like Mike Aviles.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  102/18/87/.305/20

9. Alex Gordon – I recapped Alex Gordon’s season already.  I wrote that while stuffing a duck’s gullet for some foie gras.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  101/23/87/.303/17

10. Carlos Gonzalez – I knew CarGo wasn’t repeating his 2010, gave you preseason projections that were almost perfect and told you he was overrated.  Yet, I feel like he didn’t disappoint as much as he could have.  How dare you overperform your underperformance!  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections:  90/24/95/.285/20, Final Numbers:  92/26/92/.295/20

11. Hunter Pence – Here’s a guy that is cast in the Braun/Upton mold.  You can set your watch to a decent year from Pence.  Give or take some power, some speed, some average… Well, his stats are always there…thereabouts.  Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections:  90/25/90/.290/15, Final Numbers:  84/22/97/.314/8

12. Lance Berkman – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

13. Jeff Francoeur – Imagine if the peasant Royals would’ve actually had some pitching in 2011.  They would’ve easily made the postseason only to be bounced by the Rangers.  The Royals had more runs scored than the Phillies, Brewers and Rays.  As for fantasy, guys that surprise by overproducing are terrific.  But — and unless you’re an alien, there’s always a but — how many fantasy owners actually got these seasons in their entirety?  In deep leagues?  Sure.  You draft a guy like Frenchy and pray, then thank your deity of choice when he pans out.  But in shallow leagues, you look at a guy like Frenchy and maybe pick him up after he does some hitting, then maybe drop him when he stops for a few weeks then maybe you grab him again, but you don’t have these players for the whole season.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  77/20/87/.285/22

14. Michael Morse – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

15. Josh Hamilton – Ellsbury threw me for a loop, Grandy exceeded my expectations by a shizzton and Melky did what no one thought he could with a bunch of plate appearances, but Hamilton once again did exactly what I thought he would.  Good while healthy with “while healthy” having its own solar system.  Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections:  85/27/100/.305/7, Final Numbers: 80/25/94/.298/8

16. B.J. Upton – People seem to hate B.J.  I think it’s the low average bias that permeates fantasy.  It’s odd that there’s such a bias when average is the hardest thing to predict.  Hate on low power or low speed, but low average?  It’s a horn bet.  Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections:  95/17/75/.250/40, Final Numbers: 82/23/81/.243/36

17. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

18. Andrew McCutchen – Last year we found out that The Dread Pirate wasn’t quite ready to take the next step like I thought he would.  He didn’t come up that short, but short enough as they say at dwarf bowling.  I really try to focus on making these blurbs about what the players did last year rather than looking ahead, but that’s easier said than done.  The Dread Pirate is gonna be my 2012 Matt Kemp.  There’s no one more exciting to me for next year that had a slightly down year.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  100/18/60/.290/38, Final Numbers: 87/23/89/.259/23

19. Coco Crisp – At 31 years old, he had his best season.  Coco Crisp must’ve been eating his Lucky Charms.  All of these steals came from a Billy Beane-GM’d team.  I guess there’s market efficiencies with steals now.  You’re probably not asking yourself what I thought of Moneyball, but I’ll tell you anyway.  SPOILER ALERT (but the movie has been out for over a month, you really have that much to do?)  I was kinda disappointed.  To go all EW on you, I’d give it a B, but I was hoping for an A.  Damn you, expectations.  I know Michael Lewis glossed over the fact Zito, Mulder, Hudson and the steroid-fueled Chavez and Tejada were actually a big part of the A’s success so I figured the movie would do the same.  It did.  They want a fairy tale about how some unknowns carried the team to glory.  Yay, Scott Hatteberg is undervalued and he uses a bat carved from a tree that lightning struck!  Not really, but whatever.  I was more disappointed because I was bored during stretches and I didn’t like Jonah Hill at all.  Hey, let’s get the Jew to find value where others are missing it!  Finally, I wanted some unintentional comedy with Royce Clayton playing Tejada.  “Hey, Miggy, do you have diabetes?”  Cut to:  Tejada holding a syringe.  Tejada, “Yes.  Blood sugar low.”  Though that song the daughter sings is hella (do the kids still say this?) catchy.  Should’ve changed the lyrics though:  I’m just a GM stuck in Oakland… I’m kind of sick of being so broke and having my team get to the playoffs only to choke.  Slow it down, make it stop… Miguel Tejada’s arms look like their gonna pop… BTW, if you wanna read movie reviews, my friend has a movie review blog.  Preseason Rank #62, 2011 Projections:  50/6/35/.260/22, Final Numbers:  69/8/54/.264/49

20. Emilio Bonifacio – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post.

In the first installment of the grading process, we’ll look at the gold stars, the players that exceeded expectations.  As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players!

Anibal Sanchez – I pegged Sanchez to be a sub-4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks, and liked him over several guys (Happ, Holland, Niese, Hudson and Lackey) that were going well before him. I projected him to be the 52nd best starting pitcher, but with considerable upside. Well, Sanchez has eclipsed my K projection, has a 3.64 era and is the 49th SP. Not bad, eh?

Ian Kennedy – There isn’t anything more enjoyable than an ex-Yankee doing dirty things for another team…other than maybe a game winning bloop single off the best closer ever in game 7 of the World Series. I ranked Kennedy as the 43rd best starting pitcher, roughly 20 spots higher than most projections. I had him posting an ERA around 3.70 with 175+ Ks and liked him over: Niese, Garcia, Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz. Well, Kennedy is currently the 10th best pitcher in fantasy with a dazzling 2.99 ERA and 182 Ks. For all kinds of reasons this one makes me happy.

Hunter Pence – I was all over Hunter Pence, touting him as the #11 outfielder going into the year with a .280+ average, 25 HRs and 15-20 SBs. While Pence has the under on homers and SBs, he has batted quite well: .312. Even though my projections were slightly off, he is the 11th best outfielder in the game, 10 spots better than where most had him.

Justin Upton – Obviously JUp’s talent makes it difficult to label him a “sleeper.” However I ranked him about 20 spots higher than consensus. I thought 2009 would be his floor for the next decade and that he would hit .285+ with 25 HRs and 18 steals. Well Upton, who I had at 20, is a top 12 player, and has put up a .294 average with 31 homers and 21 steals. I got him in a lot of leagues and I’m winning a lot of leagues.

JJ Hardy – I said Hardy would push 20 HRs and bat .270. Well, Hardy is pushing 30 HRs and batting .265. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Joe Mauer – I ranked Mauer as the top catcher, but had him 2+ rounds after most preseason analysts. I continue to think 2009 was the outlier of his career, given his BABIP and HR/FB rate that season. I said “Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.” I suggested waiting and drafting Mike Napoli over Mauer – Napoli has outpaced Mauer in every 5×5 category.

Trevor Cahill – Calling Cahill a potential bust was like looking outside the window, noticing it’s raining, and saying the ground will likely be wet later. I had him as the 111th pitcher when he was comfortably going among the top 100 players in drafts. Well, Cahill is currently the 936th ranked player. In fact, he has performed so badly, that players who didn’t pitch at all this year are ranked ahead of him. I had Cahill at 130 Ks and a 3.67 ERA. Well, he has 140 Ks and a 4.31 ERA. I wasn’t pessimistic enough!

Mark Teixeira – The preseason Teixeira hate was obviously based on nuances. I ranked him as the 27th best player while most people had him in the top 15 or so. I thought Teixeira would be a .280 hitter with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Well, Tex is the 48th ranked hitter, has 87 runs, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs and has continued his downward average trend. He sits at .245 now. I told you not to spend a top 15 pick on him!

Drew Stubbs – I have been a huge fan of Stubbs for an incredibly long time now. I thought a 20-50 season was possible, with the floor being 20-30. Well, Stubbs is the 80th ranked player to date with 15 HRs and 37 steals. Looks like I was a little high on the HRs but otherwise, I’m pretty comfortable calling this a success. Stubbs is going to come in around the 25th best outfielder. I had him 17th; general consensus had him at 42. I’m closer!

Bud Norris – I’ve always liked Bud Norris because he brings it. I had him as the 114th ranked pitcher compared to consensus around 317. I own Norris and clearly undersold him, projecting 180 Ks, a 4.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Well, he sits at 176 Ks with a tasty 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but no one is arguing with his results to date.

Jhoulys Chacin – At the beginning of the year, I said I wanted Chacin over Derek Holland, Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson. I said he was a lock for 160 Ks, a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 142 Ks. I was right to tout him over Holland, Slowey (obviously), Niese, and Garcia, but not the hurlers from Atlanta. I’m very happy with Chacin though!

Seth Smith – I thought Smith would be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers. In 2011, Smith has batted .282 with 15 HRs – not bad, remember always bet on black…jerseyed Rockies…or something to that effect.

Pedro Alvarez – While Alvarez was a consensus top 100 player and top 7 guy at 3b, I had him as the 21st 3b. Alvarez has been nothing short of a total bust. He is batting well below .200 and has just three HRs to his name. My advocacy for Aramis Ramirez over him makes me smile…and the whole world stops and stares for awhile.

Erick Aybar – I thought Aybar would be a very serviceable SB option, capable of stealing 20+ bags easy. Well, Aybar has batted .281 with 29 steals – not bad for a late round flier.

Danny Espinosa – In a perfect world, Espinosa was a 20+ HR guy with a .250 average and some steals. While the average hasn’t quite been there (he is hitting .236), he does have 21 HRs and 14 SBs. I’d be wary of him in the future – he just can’t seem to grasp what a strike is, but for now, 2011 was pretty nice.

Clay Buchholz – I didn’t predict doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I did say he had no business being in the draft day neighborhood of guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Haren, Billingsley and Marcum. I saw Buchholz landing squarely in the mid-3.00s for ERA with an unimpressive K-rate (maybe 7 per nine).  While he has been injured, Buchholz has an ERA in the mid-3.00 (3.48), and he has 6.53 K/9.

Aaron Harang – I can’t go a year without promoting Harang. Entering 2011, I saw him as a low 4.00 – 4.25 ERA candidate with 150 Ks or so. He is going to fall short in the K category (he has just 124), but his ERA (3.64) has been tasty.

Derek Holland – I called Holland a sneaky strike-out source who could have an ERA under 4.00. Well, he has a 3.92 ERA and 155 Ks. The Ks fall a little short of expectations, but otherwise, he was a damn good value pick!

Brandon McCarthy – I thought McCarthy could easily log 150 innings as the A’s fifth starter and post a sub-4.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d wow you with the Ks, but as a late choice, he would pay big dividends. Well, McCarthy has a 3.26 ERA, 117 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP – I’d say he was well worth the price of admission.

Jordan Zimmerman – Before the season began, I wrote: I think you can expect a sub-4.00 ERA about 130 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.20 – 1.35 range for Zimmerman. Well Zimmerman has a 3.18 ERA, 124 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.