Fantasy Baseball Advice

I don’t particularly like the term ‘beginner’s luck’.  If we won the LABR NL-Only Expert League (sponsored/hosted by Steve Gardner at USA Today), I imagine this dismissive term would be tagged on us.  Those smart-ass bloggers won LABR – such beginner’s luck!

Unfortunately, we’ll never know because we finished in a tie for 7th place and ‘Beginner’s average performance’ doesn’t have the same colloquial attractiveness.

(Congratulations to Doug Dennis who managed 41 pitching points (out of 65) after investing just $30 on pitching in the draft.  That’s what can happen with a little luck, a couple of good $1 picks (F. Salas, D. Gee), and an April trade for Ian Kennedy)

Coming out of our draft, we were feeling pretty good about our offense (which we spent about $180 of our $260) where we placed three big bets (Albert Pujols – $40, Ryan Braun – $37, Jose Reyes – $29) and three medium-sized bets (Todd Neil Walker – $18, Logan Morrison – $18, Danny Espinosa – $13).  While none of our ‘cheap’ picks played particularly well or stayed particularly healthy (Casey Blake, Mark DeRosa), these guys helped carry us to 51 points which was the 3rd best offense.  (Our in-season pickups had a modest impact – our three notable ones were Juan Rivera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Brandon Wood).

If our pitching – which we thought might be average – could only overperform a bit, we had a chance to compete for the title.  Those of you with 8th grade math skills can surmise that it performed awfully (14 points).  And that’s AFTER trading Pujols in an August trade for Cliff Lee who gave us a sick line of 60.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 61 Ks.

Here’s a Spaghetti Western breakdown of our pitching:

The Good:
Yovani Gallardo ($21) – Can’t complain too much about 207.1 IP / 17 W / 3.52 / 1.215 / 207 Ks

Randy Wolf ($3) – 212.1 IP / 13 W / 3.69 / 1.319 / 134

Carlos Marmol ($20) – Yeah, wish we spent $15 for Kimbrel or Marmol blew less saves but 33 saves and 99 Ks (!!!) from a closer is solid.

Chris Capuano ($4) – The 4.55 ERA was ugly but 11 Wins and 168 Ks with an okay WHIP (1.349) was good value.

The Bad:

Clayton Richard ($5) – Ugh, why’d we draft this Hodgepadre instead of Harang or Stauffer?  The fact he only made it through 99 IP didn’t help.

Tom Gorzelanny ($2) – He pitched great (1.235 WHIP, nearly a K an inning) but he only pitched 100 innings as the Nationals preferred to give Chien-Mien Wang starts down the stretch and only managed 4 wins.

Matt Lindstrom ($2) – We were hoping for more than 2 saves and he was injured when Huston Street inevitably got hurt.  Hurts more when you think what gambling on a SP like Brandon Beachy ($1) or Dillon Gee ($1) might’ve netted.

Clay Hensley ($5) – We hoped he might steal the job from the pitcher formerly known as Leo Nunez.  He then switched to SP where he was sub-average.

The Ugly:

Hong-Chih Kuo ($6) – We really liked three middle relievers with some Saves potential – Kuo, Madson, and Venters.  If Kuo has a Madson-like year of 25 saves, it would’ve netted us 7 more points in Saves.  Yip!

Javier Vazquez ($11) – This really couldn’t have worked out worse.  Grey has covered this numerous times in daily roundups but here’s the painful story.  LABR rules dictate that anyone on a 25-man roster HAS to be started.  So we couldn’t bench Vazquez during his atrocious April/May.  It was either start him or drop him.  We prayed he’d go on the Disgraceful List or show some sign of a turnaround but all we got was one bad start after another.

Vazquez has always been one of those guys who Ks a lot but gives up too many HRs and underperforms on his ratios (career xFIP of 3.75 and ERA of 4.22).  There is no way Vazquez can be effective if he isn’t K-ing in the 8-10 K/9 range.  He started the season at about half that rate  so there was little hope for the K mojo (and any level of effectiveness) to return.  I dropped him sometime in May – after lobbying hard against a hesitant Grey – when Vazquez had a  line of 39.1 IP / 2 Wins / 7.55 ERA / 1.907 WHIP / 20 Ks.

So what did he do the rest of the way?  Only 146. 1 IP / 10 Wins / 2.83 ERA / 1.011 WHIP / 135 Ks.  My guess is just holding onto Vazquez – which we would’ve done had he not had a historically bad first 8 or so starts – would’ve netted us 10 pitching points (in Wins, Ks, and ERA) and put us close to the top 3.

Oh well…hopefully if they let us in next year, we’ll learn from these pitching mistakes and make a run for the pennant.  Or at least make new mistakes so we don’t look stupid when writing the end of season post.

I was like, “Yo, Grey, you gotta do a Closer Look, like, last week so everyone knows what is the haps on closers!”  Then I was like, “After the trading deadline, which I went over in Toto, not a whole lot changes.”  Then I was like, “What is “the haps?”  The happenings?  Then say that.  And ‘in Toto?’  Are you talking in code for ‘in Total Douchebag?’”  It’s a constant struggle with myself to give you the best product, and, when I don’t give you the best product, it’s usually me blabbering about how it’s a constant struggle to give you the best product.  Incredibly, in the last month there’s only been three closer changes.  Capps to Nathan, Bastardo to Madson, which only happened because Madson was briefly injured last month when I did the last Closer Look, and D-ork to the Brewers, making Izzy the closer, which has been well documented on this site, and by ‘this site’ I mean the one you’re reading right now, not the porn window you have open underneath it.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
2. Heath Bell (+3) (Chad Qualls, Ernesto Frieri)
3. Jonathan Papelbon (+1) (Daniel Bard)
4. Jose Valverde  (Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque)
5. Brian Wilson (+1) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Carlos Marmol (-3) (Sean Marshall)
7. Joel Hanrahan (Jose Veras, Chris Resop)
8. Craig Kimbrel (+3) (Jonny Venters, Scott Linebrink)
9. Francisco Cordero (Aroldis Chapman)
10. Huston Street (Matt Lindstrom)
11. Sergio Santos (+8) (Matt Thornton, Chris Sale)
12. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
13. Leo Nunez (Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn)
14. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez)
15. Andrew Bailey (+3) (Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour)
16. Kyle Farnsworth (+1) (Joel Peralta, J.P.Howell)
17. Joe Nathan (+5) (Matt Capps, Glen Perkins)
18. Drew Storen (-2) (Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett)
19. Ryan Madson (+11) (Brad Lidge, Antonio Bastardo) 
20. Joakim Soria (Aaron Crow)
21. Brandon League (+2) (Jamey Wright)
22. Jordan Walden (+2) (Scott Downs, Fernando Rodney)
23. Fernando Salas (+3) (Jason Motte, Octavio Dotel)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kevin Gregg– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Brian Roberts in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Neftali Feliz (-3) (Mike Adams, Koji Uehara)
25. Chris Perez (-17) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez)
26. Kevin Gregg (-2) (Jim Johnson, Mike Gonzalez)
27. Mark Melancon (Wilton Lopez)
28. Javy Guerra (+1) (Hong-Chih Kuo, Matt Guerrier) 
29. Jason Isringhausen (-15) (Bobby Parnell, Pedro Beato)
30. Jon Rauch (-1) (Frank Francisco, The Ghost of the Seagull that Dave Winfield Killed)

Ryan Madson hit the DL and some Bastardo took over, Broxton is a bastardo and Guerra is getting saves since Kuo can’t watch Lifetime without crying — assuming there are Dodger saves, Rauch was named the closer and Frank² started getting all the saves, Lyon is out for the season and Melancon looks terrible, La Russa changed closers three times since you started reading this run-on sentence, Jordan Walden has been taking pointers from Fernando Rodney and Kevin Gregg actually moved up the ranks.  Brain Freezes, your saves are cheap, but your headaches are senseless.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Mariano Rivera (+3) (David Robertson, Luis Ayala)
2. Jose Valverde (+3) (Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque)
3. Carlos Marmol (-2) (Sean Marshall)
4. Jonathan Papelbon (-2) (Daniel Bard)
5. Heath Bell (-1) (Mike Adams, Ernesto Frieri)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Brian Wilson (+5) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
7. Joel Hanrahan (+8) (Jose Veras, Chris Resop)
8. Chris Perez (+1) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez)
9. Francisco Cordero (+3) (Nick Masset)
10. Huston Street (Matt Lindstrom, Rafael Betancourt)
11. Craig Kimbrel (-5) (Jonny Venters, George Sherrill)
12. John Axford (+1) (Kameron Loe)
13. Leo Nunez (+1) (Steve Cishek, Mike Dunn)
14. Francisco Rodriguez (-6) (Jason Isringhausen, Pedro Beato)
15. J.J. Putz (-8) (David Hernandez)
16. Drew Storen (+2) (Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett)
17. Kyle Farnsworth (-1) (Joel Peralta, J.P.Howell)
18. Andrew Bailey (+5) (Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour)
19. Sergio Santos (Matt Thornton, Chris Sale, Jesse Crain)
20. Joakim Soria (+10) (Aaron Crow)
21. Neftali Feliz (-1) (Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kevin Gregg– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Brian Roberts in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Capps (+5) (Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares, Alex Burnett)
23. Kevin Gregg (+2) (Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez)
24. Brandon League (+2) (Jamey Wright, David Pauley)
25. Jordan Walden (-4) (Scott Downs)
26. Fernando Salas (-4) (Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Eduardo Sanchez)
27. Mark Melancon (-3) (Wilton Lopez)
28. Frank Francisco (Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, Jason Frasor)
29. Javy Guerra (Hong-Chih Kuo, Kenley Jansen)
30. Antonio Bastardo (-12) (Ryan Madson, Michael Stutes, Brad Lidge, Battery Throwing Fan)

Wilson Betemit collided with Albert Pujols and… Why is Wilson Betemit playing?!  He never plays.  Doesn’t your Quad-A Beer Pong Tournament partner, Shelley Duncan, need you for a tourney?  Manzo!  (Which is my new favorite exclamation that means nothing.)  Another tough break (strain?) for a high draft pick.  You high draft picks remind me of my shoe closet — I got one penny and a bunch of loafers!  (Thanks, Lil Penny.)  Pujols supposedly only has a sprained wrist, but will be reevaluated on Monday.  If it’s any more serious than a strain, I suggest Betemit enter the Witness Protection Program.  Your deity of choice willing Pujols will be back on the field in a day or two.  Luckily, Pujols has severed elbow tendons in the past and only missed one game.  Manzo!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Lance Berkman – Didn’t start on Sunday because his back and leg were “barking.”  Sounds like someone has figured out how to appeal to La Russa’s PETA leniencies.

Carl Crawford – Heads to the 15 day DL with a hamstring injury.  Manzo!  Crawford is now starring in “Hammy Dearest.”  Maybe J.D. Drew got in Crawford’s ear.  Drew, “Do you know they pay you the same amount whether you play all the games or take 30 of them off? Muahahahaha…Hey, you gonna finish that kale smoothie?”  The Sawx will turn to McDonald, Cameron and Reddick, which is enough to remove the pleats from Dan Shaughnessy’s dockers.  The good news, if there is any good news — why must there always be bad news first?  Why?! — the hamstring strain isn’t serious and Carl should be flapping his gums back on the field with the minimum time missed.

Brian Matusz – Left his start on Saturday with cramps.  Must be that time of the month.

Francisco Liriano – 7 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Of course you want slightly better vs. the Padres in the Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome, but 8 Ks vs. 2 walks tells me he’s still headed in the right direction.

Aaron Hill – 1-for-4 with his 2nd home run this week.  I’ll bestow on you a very lukewarm “Go ahead and pick him up if he’s on waivers, but I don’t think any major corner has been turned.”  And that’s me bestowing on you!

Carlos Villanueva – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Chuck Newtown has a 3.17 ERA on the year, but that’s being buoyed by a solid run in middle relief earlier in the year.  As a starter, he’s been just a’ight, which is less than a’ight and way off from a’ight a’ight.  AL-Only leagues is about the only place I could see adding him for right now.

Bronson Arroyo – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Guess what time it is, ya’ll?!  No, not 8:28 AM.  I mean, it might be, but that’s not what I meant.  It’s time to add Arroyo to your teams.  In the last three years, his post-All-Star Break ERA is 3.09.  Yup.

Brandon Lyon – To undergo season-ending surgery.  If I said I was sad, I’d be Lyon.  And, as we learned from Semisonic, every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end, so Melancon will take over the closer job.  It’s closing time… BTW, if you’re at a bar where they play that at the end of the night, find a new place.  However, if your girl suggested the bar, then consider yourself lucky, you got a good one.

Hunter Pence – Missed Saturday and Sunday’s games because of a sprained elbow.  Sounds like he should be okay.  Let’s hope so because I need him for my teams and I’m sure that’s his biggest concern right now.

Bud Norris – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Noob Hint Alert!  If a guy has more strikeouts than innings, he’s good.  When the pitcher is doing that and has a 3.26 ERA, he’s very good.

Ty Wigginton – 1-for-3 with a home run.  When Wigginton hits one home run, what’s his over/under for homers for the week?  I feel people in H2H leagues might want to know this.  3 homers this week?  4?

Wily Mo Peña – After hitting 21 home runs in something like 18 games in Triple-A, he’s getting called up this week to play DH.  That’s the good news.  Bad news is he’s not yet in Yahoo and by the time he’s added he may no longer be playing in the majors.

Vernon Wells – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 7th home run.  He hit two home runs earlier this week, then everyone and my mother came out of the woodwork and said he’s a buy then he went 2-for-16 over his next 4 games then, to continue this run-on sentence, he hit a homer yesterday.  At this point, you throw him in the pile of Carlos Lee, Carlos Beltran and Chipper Jones.  There will be times of decent fantasy value but don’t field the entire 2003 All-Star team.

Tyler Chatwood – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Besides having a last name that sounds like it would open up seven pop-up windows on your browser, he has way too many walks.  Don’t bother with him, not worth the ulcer.

Brandon Belt – Had the cast removed from his left wrist.  Inside, he found a metal hanger, a remote control and a coat check receipt.

Alex Rios – 1-for-4 with homers in back-to-back games.  People kept asking in the comments if Rios would ever turn it around.  Looks like he’s providing an answer.

Mike Stanton – Missed Saturday and Sunday’s game with an eye infection.  My guess is Hanley farted on his pillow.

Chris Volstad – 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  I highlighted him in the post the other day about pitchers who should be better.  And he was better yesterday.  See how that works?

Roger Bernadina – 3-for-4 with his 3rd home run in the last four games.  The one game he didn’t go deep, he stole a base.  In the last week, he’s hitting over .405, it’s Bernadina Bounty!  He’s owned in less than 2% of all ESPN leagues.  Sure, 95% of ESPN leagues are abandoned already, but it’s still too low.  In 39 games, he has 4 homers and 10 steals.  Over the course of the season, that’s better than that other guy you own.  And him too.

Danny Espinosa – This weekend, 2 steals and a home run.  Whatever, you don’t need that.

Clay Buchholz – To the DL with a lower back strain.  Geez, lots of injuries this weekend.  Reminds me of the time in 3rd grade when Little Joey Stanicky came to school with lice and knocked out half of our class with the head bugs.

Jair Jurrjens – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks vs. Alexi Ogando (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks) in a battle of the seemingly stoppable force meets an immovable xFIP, illustrating the Irresistible Sell High Paradox.

Hong-Chih Kuo – With his anxiety disorder at bay, he was activated from the DL.  You think the Dodgers are gonna put him in a tie game in the ninth inning?  Scully, “Kuo’s first pitch is a ball.  Looks like he’s pulling a samurai sword out… The first samurai sword was used in the 13th century.  Its popularity was fueled by the rise of close-combat warfare.  Wow, and there goes Loney’s head… Did you know some animals can survive decapitation?   A cockroach, for instance.  Guess we can safely say Loney is not a cockroach.”

Javy Guerra – The last time the Dodgers had a closer, Kuo saw a pile of baby powder and thought it was Broxton dehydrated like in the original Batman movie.  Hopefully things work out better this time.  Three ladies and gentlemen, Guerra recorded a save!

Jesus Guzman – 1-for-4, utility man who sounds like a character actor was called up by the Padres and started over Rizzo vs. a lefty. (Liriano, “I have a name.”)  Hopefully, the Padres don’t sit Rizzo vs. many lefties cause that could hurt his value.

Alcides Escobar – 2-for-3 with a home run.  Prior to that, 5 steals in 6 games.  Potatoes to chips, he could steal 40 bases.

Casey McGehee – 1-for-3, not much to say here other than to say there hasn’t been much to say all year with McGehee.  Last year doesn’t look as fluky as this year is making it look.  I think he will turn things around a bit, but he’s not giving you anything besides some occasional power, so if he’s a .260 hitter with 15 home runs, it’s really not that great anyway.

Shaun Marcum – Left Friday’s start with hip inflammation.  He was throwing butter with the ‘er’ up until this point in the season, so hopefully this isn’t that big of a setback.  If you want, touch your computer screen with your hand and we’ll hold hands hoping Marcum can bounce back quick… Did you just put your nuts on the screen hoping I’d hold them?  So juvenile.

The questions have started about Heath Bell getting traded.  I think there’s a good chance it happens.  Well, Hair Lip, there goes his value! Not so fast, random italicized voice.  I guess you have all the answers! Actually, I have questions.  What if he’s traded to the Cards or Angels?  What if Huston Street gets hurt and the Rockies grab Bell?  What if the Mariners gain a few games on the Rangers and become buyers?  What if your boss replaces you with a coyote that was raised by humans and can flip burgers better than you?  Do you see what I’m saying here?  Don’t sell Bell short because of trade rumors.  Lots of things can happen. Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Carlos Marmol (+1) (Kerry Wood, Sean Marshall)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (+2) (Daniel Bard)
3. Heath Bell (-2) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, Chad Qualls)
4. Mariano Rivera (-1) (Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Jose Valverde (Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque)
6. Craig Kimbrel (+1) (Jonny Venters, George Sherrill)
7. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Juan Gutierrez)
8. Francisco Rodriguez (+1) (Jason Isringhausen, Bobby Parnell)
9. Chris Perez (+1) (Tony Sipp, Chad Durbin, Rafael Perez)
10. Huston Street (+1) (Matt Lindstrom, Rafael Betancourt)
11. Brian Wilson (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
12. Francisco Cordero (+1) (Nick Masset)
13. John Axford (+1) (Kameron Loe)
14. Leo Nunez (+1) (Clay Hensley, Edward Mujica)
15. Joel Hanrahan (+1) (Jose Veras, Evan Meek)
16. Kyle Farnsworth (+5) (Joel Peralta, J.P.Howell)
17. Drew Storen (Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett)
18. Ryan Madson (+10) (Jose Contreras, Antonio Bastardo, Brad Lidge)
19. Sergio Santos (+9) (Chris Sale, Jesse Crain, Matt Thornton)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kevin Gregg– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Brian Roberts in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

20. Neftali Feliz (+10) (Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes)
21. Jordan Walden (-3) (Fernando Rodney, Scott Downs)
22. Fernando Salas (+4) (Eduardo Sanchez, Jason Motte, Ryan Franklin)
23. Andrew Bailey (+1) (Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour)
24. Mark Melancon (-4) (Wilton Lopez, Brandon Lyon)
25. Kevin Gregg (-3) (Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez)
26. Brandon League (-3) (Jamey Wright, David Aardsma)
27. Matt Capps (-3) (Jose Mijares, Alex Burnett, Joe Nathan)
28. Frank Francisco/Jon Rauch/Octavio Dotel (-3) (Jason Frasor)
29. Matt Guerrier/Javy Guerra/Rubby de la Rosa (-2) (Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo)
30. Aaron Crow (-25) (Joakim Soria, The Winner of a Radio Call-In Contest)