Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’m admittedly not a fan of rookie catchers. There’s not a long history of success, Piazza and… Um… Well… Benito Santiago. Granted in fantasy baseball, you don’t need a whole lot from a catcher for him to have a good year. But this is something you can work to your advantage. Rudy’s catcher projections for the BAO are 47/13/57/.273/2. (That’s Best Available Option from waivers, not a pork bun. The BAO is basically saying if you drop Posada, this what you’re probably going to get off of waivers.). Some close statistical fits: Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski. So if Geovany Soto gets you 67/25/87/.285/7 (which are unreal numbers, but I’m going with the ceiling for this experiment to prove a point), this puts you waaaaaay above the BAO for catcher. As I understand these honkytonk numbers, you are a plus 20/12/30/.012/5 from crap. And, by crap, I mean that’s if you pickup LoDuca, Estrada or Pierzynski. If you were to pickup Salty, and he gets better numbers than those three schmohawks, then you are ahead of the game. “What do I do with these geeky numbers, Grey? My eyes are bleeding!” Yeah, I know. I like to leave the numbers to Rudy, but I’m proving a point here. So if you have a glaring weakness, say your fifth OF is Luke Scott, you trade Soto for Torii Hunter and pickup Salty. Now the other guy’s psyched because he got Geovany Soto, who’s, like, better than gravity and can cure blindness, and gave you Torii Hunter, an aging outfielder. Well, if you paid attention, you just made your team better by trading Soto for Double I because the difference between Torii and Luke Scott is more than Soto and Salty. Soto would have to significantly outperform his projections to match the expectations of Torii. If you could get a reliable player who’ll fill a need, take it. Okay, here’s some more guys to buy and sell for your fantasy baseball team:

BUY

Wladimir Balentien - Wlad the Impaler got the call from the Mariners and I say he’s an immediate pickup in AL-Only leagues and worth a flier in deep mixed leagues. As with any flier, there’s plenty of risk so don’t drop anyone you might regret.

Chase Headley - No, he didn’t get called up yet. No, he’s not doing that well in the minors right now. Edmonds, which I believe is Slavic for injury-prone, is the only thing standing in Headley’s way.

Ian Stewart - I’ve already mentioned that Tulowitzki’s injury might force Atkins over to 2nd and Stewart into the bigs. I’d put that ‘might’ at about forty percent chance of a Stewart sighting. In fifteen team leagues and NL-Only, he must be owned now unless you want to risk missing him when he does get the call. In other leagues, ‘waiver’ at your risk, but when he gets the call he will be snatched up as fast as Jobacum.

Reggie Willits - If you need speed and Red Bull ain’t cutting it, here ya go. He’s supposed to be batting in the two hole going forward.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Three games a week are enough to show I care. (BTW, I hate The Beatles.)

Dioner Navarro - Anything goes when it comes to Navarro. (Love Big Daddy Kane.)

Randy Wolf - 37/11 K/BB ration is very good. Pitching in Petco is excellent. Cheap starters on waivers are priceless worth the guckin’ famble.

Scott Baker - Rare when I tout an AL starter, so, ya know, check him out. But be cautious, in his next start he gets the Tigers and he has a sore groin. (I really never thought I’d be writing ’sore groin.’)

Melky Cabrera - What, you don’t like 15/15 players? He gets there with ease. Sure, I just traded him away, but I also never touch a public bathroom door handle, you gonna do everything I do?

Santiago Casilla - I’ve had him on a team for about two weeks. 7 IPs/0.00/.90/9Ks Your starters can’t start every day. Why not boost your stats while they’re sitting?

Shane Victorino - People are starting to get annoyed with his slow start and lack of playing time. I say buy. Rudy just traded Capps for him. I think it’s a great trade.

Moises Alou - He’ll be back on Friday night. He’s an immediate add in deep leagues.

Robinson Cano - He won’t be a buy low guy for the entire season. You should try and steal him from someone.

Ryan Howard - He won’t bat under .200 for the entire season. He will hit 40 home runs. Go after him.

Rafael Betancourt - Sure, he’s blown a couple of saves, but Borowski isn’t good when he’s healthy. If you can get someone to throw-in Betancourt in a trade, do it.

Jeff Clement - He needs 5 starts or 10 games played. Started yesterday, there’s plans to start him again today. Kenji’s getting a “rest.”

Homer Bailey - If Matt Belise throws a game like he’s capable of, say, two and two-thirds innings with 7 runs allowed, Bailey will be up.

SELL

Brian Burres - Seems worth a pickup in a 30 team AL-Only league, anyone else should use extreme caution. Caveat emptor for those reading in Latin America.

Emil Brown - He’s sitting on 4 walks in a hundred at-bats. Francoeur has five walks. Emil simply had a good RBI month.

Armando Galarraga - *GEEKY NUMBER ALERT* He has an unsustainable BABIP. (Stands for Better Avoid Because I said Pho.)

Jayson Werth - Is he (pinkie to mouth) Werthless? No, but he’s not better than Victorino. He’ll be a faint memory in about a month.

Cliff Lee - I wrote in the comments on one of our posts, “His composite preseason numbers come out to about this: 12-8/4.68/1.43/130. That’s according to every noteworthy fantasy expert. Not simply us (we’re not that egotistical). Rudy goes over this stuff pretty in-depth, but you can start here for a primer. Does this mean Lee can’t breakout because no one saw it coming? No, it doesn’t. It just means there’s less of a chance.” And that’s me quoting me! If you can get Manny for Lee, I’d do it. (Which reminds me, whatever happened to Buddy Lee? I’m no advertising expert, but he was like the first cute advertising icon that wasn’t racist. He was a trailblazer. An icon. He stood for something — dungarees.)

Assuming you have already drafted your teams for this 2008 fantasy baseball season, these are the players you want to drop, add or simply hold onto for your fantasy baseball roster.

DROPS

Cameron Maybin – He’s gone. Might be in the minors until rosters expand.

John Patterson – After being released by the Nationals (how embarrassing!), he’s going to get another shot with the Rangers. Ugh. You don’t want any part of him, unless you’re into tall, long-haired hippies that are injury-prone.

Scot Shields – I love middle relievers, but he has forearm issues. Not worth it. Grab Justin Speier if you want to handcuff K-Rod.

Kelvim Escobar  – If you have a spot on your DL, then I guess hold onto him. If no room, drop his injury-prone ass, he might be done for the year.

Jay Bruce – Dusty Baker’s not playing him this year.

Homer Bailey – You’re waiting for magic in the NL-only leagues. Other leagues, look elsewhere. (Aside, if his name was John Smith, you wouldn’t have even drafted him. He’s got a great name!)

Evan Longoria – Braun was a special case last year. The Rays are cheap bastards and may call Longoria up in June or may wait even longer. I’m sorry, but you need someone else.

Chase Headley – Not happening here either. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the call sooner than Longoria for two reasons, 1) Padres aren’t cheap bastards 2) Edmonds and Giles aren’t long for this world. Headley just needs to prove he can play some outfield.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – It’s with a heavy heart I report you should drop Salty. He’ll probably be up sooner rather than later, so you might have to pounce to get him back, but a catcher in the minors does nothing for you. Come back soon, Salty… (I am thrilled I won’t have to spell his name for a little while.)

ADDS

Carlos Villanueva – Brewers sent Vargas packing and handed his rotation keys over to Villanueva. Vargas really wasn’t that bad of a pitcher and he was having a decent spring. This says what you need to know about Villanueva’s talent.

Jayson Nix – If you need a 2nd basemen, he’s got the job in Colorado. I’d expect a decent value here. Think a young Marcus Giles. (BTW, Giles got old fast, right? I guess steroids do that.) For Nix, say 10/10/.270.

Edinson Volquez and/or Johnny Cueto – They’re going to be a hot add everywhere (in fact, I’ve already pimped them once) and the hype might exceed the results, but they’re worth trying on for size if you need a starter.

Matt Diaz – I’ve been telling you to draft him for three months now. The Braves are going to play him and he can hit .320 with some pop.

Carlos Gomez – He recently had a cramp in his hamstring and Punto took over for him, but the injury’s not serious. Not sure why he’s suddenly off everyone’s radar, but he is. He shouldn’t be. He can steal 50 bases, though he might strikeout 130 times. The Twins are committed to him and they’re a running team. This is another reason why I told you to not reach for steals in your drafts. Juan Pierre’s old; Carlos Gomez is not.

Joey Gathright – More speed if you need it.

Eugenio Velez – And yet more speed. Aren’t you pissed you drafted Juan Pierre, Willy Taveras or any of those other all-speed schmohawks?

Chris Snyder – If you punted catcher and you’re sick of looking at Pudge or Varitek on your roster, take a flier on the D-Backs backstop. He’s having a super-sized spring training.

Austin Kearns – I dislike Austin Kearns as much as the next person, and he’s burned me on many occasions, but he’s only 27. His road average last year was .301. The new Nats park might play like Coors East. You gotta take that chance. Just don’t drop anyone too precious.

Nate McLouth – He went 13/22 last year and he has a decent eye. He’s not going 40/40 with 150 RBIs, but you can do worse off the waiver wire.

Tom Gordon – Lidge is on the DL to start the season. Why not grab some free saves?

HOLDS

Josh Fields – He was sent down, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Crede gets traded or Fields ends back up in the majors very soon.

Brad Lidge – He was put on the DL, but he wants to play. He’ll be fine as far as the knee goes.

Manny Parra – He had a rough time of it in spring training, but he’s got a job for as long as Yovani’s on the DL, Parra will get a shot. Here’s hoping it goes well.

Andy Pettitte – He’s still having back issues, but he’ll still be good value for some wins.

Lackey, Beckett and Kazmir are currently fighting injury. Lackey’s looks like it will hold him out until mid-May. Kazmir was recently scratched from making his first spring training start due to a lack of arm strength. Beckett… Well, Beckett was oft-injured up until last year. Blisters preliminarily, but hardly a model of good health. What does this mean for fantasy? It means don’t draft them unless they fall way down in your draft. The amount of risk involved with drafting a starter with an arm injury isn’t worth it. Sure, the season is long and by June both of these guys may be okay, but why risk it? There’s a chance that these spring training arm injuries will be a sign of things to come. This is one of the biggest reasons why I like to draft mid- to late-March. If you drafted Lackey last week (I put him on my short list for AL Cy Young contenders and placed him very high (for an AL pitcher) on my top 100), it’s just crappy luck. If you draft later in spring training, luck is removed from the equation. And skill remains. As for…

Homer Bailey. He’s 21 years-old. As Dusty Baker is not someone you want managing your pitching staff, inexperienced pitchers are not something you want on your team. If you’re in an NL-only keeper, I could understand taking a flier. Everyone else, wait until he’s called up from the minors or next year. So who does get the Reds rotation spot?

Edinson Volquez and/or Johnny Cueto.  Let’s look at what our favorite ESPN “analyst,” Eric Karabell, said, :”…Volquez who is past prospect status…” Edinson is 23 and averaged over 9 Ks per 9 innings in the minors. Granted, he is (or was) a bit wild. Later in the same piece, Karabell said Cueto was a prospect to watch. Cueto is 22 and averaged almost exactly the the same K/9, but does walk less people. If anyone knows what Karabell is talking about, please do share. Anyway, grab Volquez and/or Cueto in late rounds in your NL-only and even deep mixed leagues. Rookies that can strikeout people are very valuable their first time through the league.

You’re so lucky there’s an extra day in February or this post would have had to wait until March. We’ve already ran through the rest of the top outfielders for 2008. Today we look at the rest of the top pitchers. These are the pitchers that I usually draft. I love Peavy and Santana this year, but I won’t have them, unless they fall to me. By fall, I mean late second round. They’ll be lots of value from them, but pitching is too unpredictable and way too easy to patch together decent enough stats. If you draft Santana with your first round pick, who will be your second pick Carlos Lee? Mark Teixeira? Eh, these names don’t excite me enough in the 2nd round to forgo a hitter in the first. I’d prefer to take a Verlander/Haren-type a little later on.  Solid number one starter, but not a first rounder. Anyway, if you want to look at the 2008 Player Rater that was put together by our very own, Rudy Gamble; click here. If you’d like to look at the top twenty projections for every other position; click here. Now, without further ado, your top starting pitching for 2008, rankings 21-40.

21. Javier Vazquez – Vazquez had the best ’07 season you didn’t know about. (If you did know, then jump ahead, I wouldn’t want to bore you.) 3.74/1.14 with over 200 Ks in ‘07. He finally returned to his former Montreal glory. And, yes, that is the only time Montreal and glory have ever been used in a sentence. Projections: 17-7/3.50/1.15/200

22. Scott Kazmir – Purposely left Kazmir off my top twenty, cause I don’t want any starter sporting a high WHIP. Now there’s word that he has arm problems. That article is a press release filled with optimism. Aside, aren’t all injury articles press releases? Aren’t you sick of this? Reporter, “How does the arm feel?” Athlete, “It’s a little sore, but I’m going to be fine. The doctor said that I should be back on the field in seven to ten days.” Is there anyone left that speaks the truth? Stop with the press-release tone! But I digress. Maybe Kazmir’s injury is nothing, but here’s something, why would you risk it? Pitchers with arm problems in spring training are a caution flag. Do yourself a favor, don’t draft a pitcher with a spring training arm injury. Projections: 14-8/3.75/1.30/210

23. Daisuke Matsuzaka – His division is ridunkiculous with offense. The last pitcher I drafted from the AL East in any league, I believe, was Roy Halladay in ’06 and that turned out vaguely crappy. If you can get excited about Dice-K, I’m assuming you’re a Son of Sam Horn messageboard poster. His best quality (which, all snark aside, is actually a really good quality) is his durability. Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.25/200

24. A.J. Burnett – I know; I keep preaching safety first. Avoid injury problems. Yes. And that’s true. But this whole next tier of pitchers has question marks. A.J. is the most predictable when he’s healthy and even his injuries are predictable. There’s safety in that. Projections: 14-8/3.85/1.20/170

25. Brett Myers – I’m not too concerned about the inexplicable bullpen move last year. Can’t be great for his arm to go from 200 innings to 100 back to 200, but Myers seems like too much of a total doucebag to let it bother him too much. Maybe he slows down in August, but by then you’re trucking towards first place and there’s some spectacular call-up that can replace him for a start or two or three. Myers has my full endorsement. Projections: 16-7/3.75/1.28/175

26. Pedro Martinez – It’s with great regret that Pedro places no higher than 26th. He was absolutely incredible when I was in my twenties and now, well, we’re both getting old. I miss the old Pedro like I miss the old me, or the newer me. Alas… Projections:12-5/3.30/1.15/160 in 140 innings/24 starts.

25. Francisco Liriano – Heffin’ hey, he’s back! At least according to the stock press release-type articles being written. I’m not drafting Liriano in any league. It’s too fast, too soon. If you’re feeling lucky go to Vegas, if you want to play fantasy baseball, skip Liriano. Projections: 10-3/3.15/1.05/150 in 120 innings/20 starts.

26. Yovani Gallardo – I’ve detailed how you should avoid 2nd year players if at all possible (hitters or pitchers). YoGa has a good offensive team behind him or I would have clumped him down with Lincecum. (Instead, Lincecum will be clumped with Sheets. Which we’ll get to, sorry, I was being premature.)  Projections: 14-8/3.50/1.20/180

27. Ian Snell – I enjoyed a good season from Ian Snell last year, but, no matter how it played out, he always got a little roughed up. Whether it was Paulino dropping a pop-up or if he gave up a home run, Snell got rattled. He’s another year older and I think he can get better in ’08. I’d draft him with confidence. Projections: 12-9/3.60/1.20/200

28. Chien-ming Wang – Wang’s even a little too safe/unexciting for me. It’s hard to find fault with drafting him. He proved last year he doesn’t need to strikeout hitters to be effective. I do kinda worry when someone can’t strikeout someone out, but wins are wins and his ratios aren’t bad. Projections: 18-8/3.75/1.25/100

29. Tim Hudson – Boring, right? Yeah, he is a boring pick. Boring wins titles! Besides, I wouldn’t draft the next three pitchers on any team. Projections: 15-8/3.70/1.25/135

30. Matt Cain – Yes, he’s the opposite of boring, but his team’s offensive standout is Aaron Rowand.  His stuff is filthy; I’ll give you that. His division’s All-Stars probably would lose at least one game to the Taiwanese Little League team. His ballpark is ideal for a pitcher. Yet, he has too many games where he gives up six runs in five innings. He’s young still and he walks too many people. Maybe next year… Projections: 11-9/3.90/1.30/190

31. Tim Lincecum – Tim over at Roto Authority has a man crush on Lincecum like I have on Michael J. Fox. I think you’re asking for trouble if you draft Lincecum. As is my policy, second year players provide too much risk.  Taking a second year player on the worst offensive team is additional risk. Will he try to do too much? Will hitters catch up to him? Let it play out on someone else’s team. Projections: 10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170

32. Ben Sheets – Ugh, I wanted to just leave him off the list to prove a point, but he’s got great stuff. Unfortunately, you can’t draft him. He’ll make you miserable. If anything, let someone else draft him, then, after the second injury, trade Nick Punto for him and hope for a good September. Projections: 60-Day DL

33./34. Derek Lowe/Brad Penny  – See Hudson, Tim. (I could see one of you schmohawks commenting below that Lowe/Penny doesn’t get enough Ks to win titles or something like that. Penny/Lowe’s your third starter. Try and draft safety with your third starter and you’ll be in the hunt for a title in September. Draft Lincecum with your third starter and you’ll be in fifth place wondering where you went wrong.) (Penny note: I’m aware of his splits, but simply trade or apply caution in the second half.) Projections for both: 15-7/3.90/1.30/140

35. Ted Lilly – I almost tossed Lilly into my Penny/Lowe daily double, but he doesn’t have the advantageous pitcher’s park. Not to mention, there’s no weather in LA, when Wrigley’s blowing out, you want no part of any pitcher. That’s a headache I try to avoid. Projections: 16-8/4.20/1.20/160

36. Chad Billingsley – While your leaguemates are drafting Lincecum and Cain, I give you my approval to draft Chad late. He’s young and he’s a bit wild. Two things I usually avoid, but his team will be a lot better than the ‘Aints. That’s a confidence builder. With Grady Little, one of the worst managers of all-time (him and Jim Tracy were vying for top spot) gone, there’s reason to think Torre’s inheriting a future Cy Young. I’m thinking it, at least. 16-7/3.20/1.30/190 in a 180 innings/27 starts

37. Kelvim Escobar – I see Kelvim turning up on a lot of draft rankings for 2008. Yeah, see, the thing is, he’s missing all of April. That’ll turn into the All-Star Break, then he’ll return in August for the stretch run. Pretend like you have an idea of the haps and don’t draft him. Projections: Nothing yet, but maybe I’ll remind you in August to pick him up. If you’re good…

38. Adam Wainwright – Perfect example of why you avoid 2nd year players. His 1st half  was horrendous. Unusable. His 2nd half was great. I know he’s not as exciting as Cain or Lincecum but here’s someone who can actually help your team. Projections: 12-7/3.20/1.30/160

39/40. Phillip Hughes/Homer Bailey – Just give them a year. That’s all I’m asking. They might be good, but you don’t want any part of the other side of the coin and you have to draft them too early. Wait, ‘til next year and everyone’s excitement for these two is gone, then pounce. I repeat:  They might be good. The problem is they might be bad. If you want risk, have casual sex with a prostitute. Projections: 12-7/4.00/1.30/140

Your Bonus, you’re welcome:

41. Dontrelle Willis – Usually when pitchers go from the NL to the AL, their value takes a hit (literally!), but Dontrelle’s got some things going for him. His delivery is convoluted, he’ll have lots more run support and he won’t have to worry about hitting anymore. That last one seems like a bad joke, but he really did take his hitting seriously, a little too seriously, to the point I’d wonder if he cared more about that than pitching. I could see Willis getting back some value he’s lost over the last two seasons. Just don’t expect pre-06 numbers. Projections: 16-9/4.15/1.35/180