Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jay Bruce has hit four homers in the last four days while hitting over .500 in the last week.  Now has 22 homers in only 74 hits with 73 Ks to go along with 3 steals.  I never thought Mark Reynolds would steal 24 bases.  I didn’t think he had 15 in him.  So, don’t take this comparison the wrong way, but Mark Reynolds is lucky he snatched up the Mini Donkey nickname because Jay Bruce looks like he could be headed that way next year.  Bruce is still very young, and his propensity to strikeout leaves him vulnerable to big slumps, so I won’t predict a huge breakout in 2010.   But he can hit 30 homers and steal 10 bases while batting .250.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Homer Bailey – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Now we’re getting to the point where he might actually be touted by the analcysts over at ESPN, which would mean his 2010 sleeper status could be in jeopardy.

Rick Porcello – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  He was in the borderline starters post for this week with a very mild recommendation.

Denard Span – 4-for-9 in the doubleheader.  Quietly having a very solid year.  Those Minnesotans are so modest!  He needs a spokesman.  His Wikipedia page is a third the size of the Wikipedia page for mutton.  He needs the mutton man!  His numbers are looking a lot like Victorino’s.  Let’s see, someone already has the nickname, Feign Victorino.  (I think I gave it to Fowler.)  So, Victorino’s The Flying Hawaiian.  Maybe The Flying Twinkie?  Hmm… That needs work.  Maybe The Flying Minnesotan?  Hmm, that sounds like someone on a roller derby team.  How about Wing Span?  Too cutesy?  Yeah, probably.  Forget it, this is a job for the mutton man.

Josh Hamilton – Shutdown for the season.  Back date this to April.

Mark Buehrle – Also shutdown for the season.  Back date this to his perfect game.

Jack Wilson – Lastly, shutdown for the year.  Back date this to the day he was drafted.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4, HR and a steal yesterday.  He hit the longest homer (460 feet, which was not this homer, but I just heard this yesterday) for any Nationals player at home this year.  This is a team with Paul Bunyan aka Big Donkey aka Adam Dunn on it.  Ian Desmond’s a shortstop.  You ready for a math problem?  Come on, I hear Winnie Cooper from The Wonder Years loves math.  Okay, here it is:  A shortstop that can hit a ball 460 feet + speed = Fantasy Sleeper.

Cameron Maybin – Speaking of fast guys with sneaky power, Maybin has two homers in the past 4 games.  I was pushing him last March for a reason, and I’ll be pushing him again next March.

J.A. Happ – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  He has a 2.85 ERA on the year with 12 wins.  Is he generating Rookie of the Year buzz?  Is there such a thing as Rookie of the Year buzz?

Ryan Madson – 2 IP, 0 ER and his 10th save.  On Sunday, he got a four out save.  Manuel’s finally figured out how to make the set-up man comfortable in the closing role.  Start him in the 8th inning.

Huston Street – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Maybe he’s still injured?  I don’t know, that’s why I put a question mark on it.

Trevor Cahill – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER as the A’s continue to flummox me.  I might need to reach out to Bubb Rubb to see if he can counsel me.

Tony Gwynn – Has 4 steals in the last week.  SAGNOF!

Cesar Ramos – 5 IP, 1 ER.  The latest HodgePadre.  Okay, close your eyes for a second.  Don’t worry, I won’t pickpocket you.  Now imagine Adrian Gonzalez is traded to the Rockies for Ubaldo Jimenez.

Miguel Montero – 2 HRs.  Speaking of trades, hopefully the Diamondbacks move Snyder this offseason.

Scott Kazmir – Scratched to ready himself for the playoffs.  He probably won’t see anything more than a tuneup before the end of the season.

Curtis Granderson – 2 HRs with the 2nd being his 30th.  He also has 20 steals.  Sure, his average is .252, but don’t get so tied up in average.  That’s how you ended up missing Mark Reynolds this year.

Grant Balfour - Now has saves in back-to-back games.  This could mean he doesn’t see another save this year, or it could mean he saves two more games.

Wade Davis – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s still going to be too young and prone to major mistakes in the AL East for me to get that excited about him in 2010.

Adam Lind – 3 HRs yesterday.  Now has 35 homers on the year.  I already went over my Lind for 2010 campaign.

Clay Buchholz – Had a 3.21 ERA coming in, now has a 3.74 ERA.  7 earned runs in 5 innings is one way to make your 2009 stats look worse than they are.

Josh Beckett – Supposed to start on Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitch 5 innings and then get pulled from the game.  Or as Dodgers fans say, “A Kershaw start.”

Edwin Encarnacion – Out with groin tightness.  Sounds like an injury that would sideline a porn actress.

If the last week of the baseball season is the final leg, we’re in the toe portion of the fantasy baseball season.  In roto, you’re throwing everyone you need to if you’re behind in your starts/innings limit.  For instance, yesterday I started eight guys in one league.  Were they all gems?  Aw, heck no.  If you have starts/innings to spare and you need the Ks/Wins, you have to throw people you wouldn’t normally throw.  Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.50 ERA, 46 Ks, 6 Wins in 72 innings.  Yeah, that’s pretty good.  Maybe I won’t draft any starters next year and just stream.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 28th

Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday.  Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league.

Tuesday, September 29th

Brian Duensing – In 14 2/3 innings, he has a .61 vs. the Tigers.  Coincidentally, that’s who he’s facing on Tuesday.

Trevor Cahill – Has been very strong vs. the West and, in particular, the Mariners.

Jonathan Sanchez – Last week I pointed that he was going to face the Diamondbacks and he’d strike out a lot of them.  He did both.  This week, more of the same.

Wednesday, September 30th

Bronson Arroyo – I probably should’ve mentioned this three weeks ago, but I’ve been judging “borderline” by ESPN ownership numbers.  30% owned and under gets the pitcher listed.  Bronson Arroyo really shouldn’t be owned in only 28.7% of leagues.

Vicente Padilla – Last week I said I’d never recommend him again.  Well, he’s in Petco and I lied.

Thursday, October 1st

Tom Gorzelanny – He falls into the Porcello category of guys I wouldn’t start outside of very deep leagues.  Really is only listed because it’s a short schedule day.

Paul Maholm – He’s also in the Gorzelanny and Porcello category.  Deep leagues only.

Brett Anderson – Also in the Gorzelanny/Porcello/Maholm category.

Friday, October 2nd

Randy Wells – He’s been real iffy lately, but this is a decent start to take a risk on him.

Clayton Richard – HodgePadre.

Saturday, October 3rd

Ryan Rowland-Smith – His last start vs. the Blue Jays wasn’t a thing of beauty but two of those runs he gave up were courtesy of The Pitcher Laureate, Miguel Batista.  (BTW, in that article, Batista compares himself to Brian Benben from Dream On.  And not because he often finds himself in comedic situations that also provide their fair share of T & A.)

Kevin Correia – He actually has been very solid even away from Petco, but enough of that now, he’s home vs. the Giants.

Sunday, October 4th

Homer Bailey – Nothing like ending the season and relying on Homer Bailey.

Chris Narveson – This is an iffy recommendation.  If the Cardinals bench their A lineup (Holliday and Pujols) on the final day, I’d start Narveson.  So, game time decision.

Edward Mujica – If the Padres are home, I’m more than likely buying.

Jonathan Sanchez – Only thing better than pitching at Petco is getting to face the Padres.

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.

Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.22 ERA if you started Justin Masterson, even though I said I wouldn’t start him unless your situation was dire.  So if you didn’t start him, you had a 2.71 ERA from the guys I pointed out last week.  You also had 47 Ks in 63 innings with 4 Wins.  And Harrison Ford’s a quarter Jewish.  Not too shabby.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 21st

Wade LeBlanc – He gets the Pirates.  Do I have to say more?  No, I really don’t.

Daniel McCutchen – If you throw LeBlanc and McCutchen, you can be the first person to ever watch 6 innings of a Padres/Pirate game.

Tuesday, September 22nd

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t thrown a bad start in two months and gets the Nats.  It’s percentages, ya’ll.

Zach Duke – In 20 innings this year, Duke has a 2.70 ERA vs. the Little Red Machine That Dusty’s Run Off The Tracks.

Trevor Cahill – Going against the A’s hasn’t worked out for me at all.  So I’m sure going with them won’t either.

Wednesday, September 23rd

Jonathan Sanchez – Has a 1.71 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks.  He Ks people, Diamondbacks like to swing.  Do the math!

Thursday, September 24th

Homer Bailey – Borderline Starters aka Pitchers Going Against the Pirates.

Vicente Padilla – He wasn’t exactly lights out when I suggested him last week, but he gets the Nationals this time.  Decent shot at a win, if nothing else.

Friday, September 25th

Bronson Arroyo – Has a 2.42 Post-All-Star Break ERA.  Should’ve really been owned for the last three months.

Kevin Correia – Good for at least Ks vs. the Diamondbacks.  Might squeeze out a Win.

Saturday, September 26th

Barry Zito – There’s absolutely no matchups I’d go near on 95% of my teams for Saturday the 26th.  If I were really desperate, I’d try Zito, i.e., throw him at your own risk.

Sunday, September 27th

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Really, he should just be owned at this point.

Hiroki Kuroda – He gets the Pirates.  BTW, why are the Nats and the Pirates playing the Dodgers at the end of September?  Who did Alyssa Milano have to “talk” to to “work” that “out”?

How about them White Sox?!  Yeah, they chucked in the pale towel sometime between Ozzie Guillen’s Monday outburst and Ozzie Guillen’s Tuesday outburst of this week.  One of the pieces them grabbed that was hailed by many as being a stroke of genius was Jake Peavy.  Yeah, the Padres actually made a good trade there as Peavy struggles with an elbow injury.  Another piece, Alex Rios.  I think even Jessica Shaw would concur Rios is so fifteen minutes ago. He’s batting a cool .156 for the Sox with one homer and one steal.  Those stats are also known as Less Than What Drew Stubbs Did Any Day This Week.  You drafted Rios pretty high, I’m sure.  It didn’t work out.  Holding him is compounding your mistake. Anyway, here’s so other players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Brad Penny – For Christmas, I want a Official Red Ryder Carbine-Action Two-Hundred-Shot Range Model Air Rifle!  But I’ll settle for pitching in the NL.

Barry Zito – No, anyone but Zito! Has a 1.92 ERA since the ASB.  But please keep in mind his last blow out was a 4 1/3 IP, 9 ER game vs. the Padres.  So at any time, at any place he could say to you he just ran over your dog, Arfer Woofruff.

Brian Duensing/Jeff Manship – Why doesn’t Manship give his name a LaRoche-type flair?  A’la ManShip.  Much better, right?  Then DuenSing… Well, that kinda looks like an Asian prison name.  These guys may burn you like chlamydia, but if you need to take match-up chances with AL pitchers, I’d take them here.

Buster Posey – This is more about keepers.  Not girls that can tell you Carney Lansford’s career batting average.  Fantasy baseball keepers.

Wade Davis – Same as above.  Go ahead, shift your eyes up.  Too lazy?  Okay.  I’d only go after Davis in keepers.  Or, of course, AL-Only leagues.

Tim Hudson – 5 IP, 2 ER.  (<–Probable pitching line)  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Franklin Morales – Huston Street’s MIA for a few days, giving way to Morales.

Phil Hughes – If Mariano has to miss time to prep for the playoffs, Hughes would probably get the majority of the saves.

Juan Gutierrez – SAGNOF!  I’d even grab Zavada and Vasquez in leagues where I’m really hurting for saves.

Brett Myers – I see Myers getting up to 3 saves in September, so think about how bad you need those 3 saves.

Brandon Allen – Strictly for power and in deep leagues.  He hit two homers in the last week and a third was robbed by Andre Ethier’s Mom’s son.

Casey McGehee – 3 HRs and 9 RBIs in the last four games.  Unfortunately, he doesn’t steal any bases, but if you need MI pop, there ya go.

Felix Pie – I’ve mentioned him so much in the last few days, I got Pee-ay coming out my ears.  If you haven’t heard me mention him, where ya been?  Vacay?  That’s nice.  Hope you SPF’d the proper areas.  Skin damage is only cool when you’re under 25.

Andy Marte – Loving me some Marte in some leagues.  Why, Grey?  Do tell, you *pinkie to mouth* Smarte. Sure, random italicized voice.  3 homers in the last 7 games for Marte.  Added bonus:  No relation to Damaso.

Yunel Escobar – Batting near .400 in the last week with two homers.  He goes hot to cold quickly, so grab him no or forever hold your peace.  Or piece, if you’re gangsta.

Michael Brantley – My ‘pert radar is telling me Sizemore’s not long for this season.  Brantley’s got speed.  SAGNOF!

Drew Stubbs – He should only be steals, but he’s been showing power.  The power will stop, the Ks and steals will begin.  Any day now, Annie Potts.

Rajai Davis – He’s only listed here because he’s owned in less than 30% of ESPN leagues.  Why is he owned in less than 30% of ESPN leagues?!  Seriously.  He had 15 steals in August and he’s batting near .400 in the last week.

Matt Diaz – It’s Dye-as.  Lefty killer.  Lately, slaughtering both sides.  Anyone who’s read this site for a long time knows that I’ve always liked Diaz as a platoon outfielder. (Play him against his strong side, sit vs. weak side.  Kinda like I’ve been doing with David Murphy and The Big FraGu in one league.)  Really Diaz should be in your lineup vs. everyone until further notice.

SELL

Homer Bailey – Love to be the bearer of good news, but I don’t have any good news for you.  I have bad news.  Bad, unfortunate, sad news.  Bailey has three solid starts in a row, but two were against the Pirates.  If you have to take chances, I kinda understand it.  But Bailey gets the Rockies then the Cubs.  Don’t mind if I don’t.

Brian Matusz/Chris Tillman – Headed for Camp Shutdown.

Kyle Davies – Has back-to-back wins that have netted him a 2.25 ERA and 11 Ks in 12 innings.  Sounds nice, right?  One was vs. the A’s and one was against the M’s.

Adam Jones – Jones is done-zo.

Josh Willingham – Lately, he looks likes the one-tool outfielder he’s always been.