Fantasy Baseball Advice

Last night, Dan Haren took the naysayers and said you know nay.  The line was 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 hits, no walks and 14 strikeouts, and, note to Scherzer, he managed 13 other outs.  Good thing Haren and Pujols started clicking before the trade deadline, Arte Moreno was seen buying some leftover Vegas hotel dynamite and about to give the big poof you to the Anaheim Angels Of A 40 Minute Commute From Los Angeles.  Haren showed great command and movement last night even though his velocity’s been down.  I’d still bet a season ERA above 3.50, unless Haren’s traded every fifth day to the team facing the Mariners.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Albert Pujols – 3-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs.  What, horsemeat?  Al-Pu is made of 100% ground chuck, baby!  24 more days in a row like this, and we’re good.

Austin Jackson – While he mends his strained abdominal — he’s the Abdominal Strainman! — Quintin Berry should see some time in Jackson’s stead.  Yesterday, he went 1-for-3.  Too bad Quintin Berry doesn’t play for the Royals.  Or that his name isn’t Dan with the middle name Quintin.  You’re still alive in our hearts, Quiz!  I’m gonna eat a submarine sandwich for you.  Berry likes to run.  In fact, I’ll call him, HeRun.  In Triple-A, he had 19 steals in 39 games.  In AL-Only leagues, HeRun isn’t much more than a flyer for speed.  The darker the Berry, the sweeter the SAGNOF!  In mixed leagues, you can do better.  Look at me showing confidence in you.  I’m like your Dad on opposite day.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. Justin Masterson (7 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.)  It was a game that was all about Justin your instincts.  Sorry, my pun muscle is a little Justy.  Must be because I’ve been fencing at my gym rather than joustin’.  For Masterson, it’s all about adJustin’.  Or re-adJustin, if you dropped him.  His luck shows a guy that was dealing with a bit of injustice.  Is he the meow’s cat?  Nah, that’s unJustinfied.  He could be a back end starter on deeper mixed leagues without an unJustinly amount of Ks.  Not remotely Verlander though, he’s the master, son.

Shin-Soo Choo – Hitting leadoff seems to be working for Choo as he hit his 3rd HR of the year off Verlander.  He’ll probably find a way to go 20/20 out of sheer habit like Bobby Abreu used to.  In a lot of superficial ways (decent stats, kind of boring), these two seem really similar.  Maybe we’ll start calling Shin-Soo-Kabrechu.

John Danks – To the DL with left shoulder soreness.  That might explain why he’s been terrible.  In fact, maybe it’s been lingering since 2010.

Alex Rios – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer in as many games.  If an impatient owner (like me) stupidly (still me) dropped him (that’s what I did), I’d grab him.

Dayan Viciedo – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 1 RBI and his 8th homer.  If you’re gonna own him, it looks like there’s going to be 0-for-24 slumps scattered amongst his homers.

Brian McCann – Out for the third straight day.  Sounds like he caught something.

Michael Bourn – 1-for-4 as he homered again yesterday for his third in the series.  This gives me an idea.  How about all players that weigh 170 pounds and under can use an aluminum bat?  Then before each AB, players can weigh-in like a wrestling match.  “Too many sunflowers seeds, Bourjos, grab some wood!”  “Prince Fielder’s out for two weeks for Lap-Band surgery, but when he returns watch out!” and finally “Juan Pierre homers!”

Randall Delgado – 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Looked a lot better than his line indicates, but even if your league has an “Appearances” category, I’m not sure this is what they have in mind.

Juan Francisco – 1-for-4 and 5th homer as he played third base for Chipper, who the Reds honored during their pregame show because it was the last time he’d be playing in Cincy.  Classy move as they gave Chipper an artificial hip.

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  There should be a Vegas bet where you bet whether Bailey will go 6 innings and give up 2 earned or if he’ll go less than 4 innings and give up four plus runs.  Those seem like the only lines he ever gives.

Logan Ondrusek – Got his second save last night because Aroldis had worked the night before.  I wouldn’t own the whole Reds’ bullpen, but this could be a semi-frequent occurrence.  Dusty hates fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!).

Devin Mesoraco – 1-for-3 with a grand slam.  Thursdays are a fun day for 2 catcher leagues, huh?

Yadier Molina – 4-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 6th homer.  The best of the Flying Molina Brothers came out yesterday — Alfred Molina, “Excuse me, I could catch AND do improvisation theater.”  Yadier had been like half a mummy since his oven-roasted April, but this could be a sign he’s turning it on again, facing Blanton certainly didn’t hurt.

David Freese – 2-for-5, 3 runs, 2 RBIs.  Another guy that took a fortnight siesta, but his bat woke up on Wednesday and now has two homers in the last two games.

Ty Wiggington – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 2 RBIs and a homer.  I’d say he’s going to be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, but he won’t.  He’s here now.  Wiggy rarely hits just one and done, and he’s probably out there in a ton of leagues, so if you need a little HBI (Hot Bat Injection), go for it.

Carlos Ruiz – 3-for-5, now hitting .366.  Elsewhere, Konerko homered and went 2-for-4 to raise his average to .384, David Wright homered and raised his average to .405, and Tony Gwynn just hit 415 on the scale.

Austin Kearns – His hamstring injury could mean Gaby Sanchez’s return from Triple-A on the first day he’s eligible, which also happens to be the day the Marlins are giving away Gaby t-shirts to the first 15,000 fans.  That’s like breaking up with your girlfriend on February 13th and getting back together on February 15th.  Anthony Rizzo may want to consider having 15,000 Rizzo t-shirts given away on June 1st.

Anibal Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Such a frustrating start.  Pagan drove in three runs on broken bat hits, a botched rundown that could’ve wiped out one run, a passed ball that was ruled a wild pitch was another run, a blooper by Belt for another run… Basically, Anibal gave up one well hit ball.

Emilio Bonifacio – Who has one good thumb and likes to steal bases?  This Bonifacio!  Looks like Emilio won’t be throwing any air punches for the next four to six weeks.

Omar Infante – 4-for-5, 2 runs and 2 steals, batting .340.  Bonifacio who?!  Emilio.  I know, Random Italicized Voice, it’s an expression.  ‘Bonifacio who’ is an expression?  Forget it.

Melky Cabrera – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 4 RBIs and a steal.  If there’s anyone out there who believes Melky is a .362 hitter, I’d sell him Melky and anything else you got lying around the house that you might not want.

Joe Mauer – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 1 RBI as he homered yesterday.  Hey, does he weigh under 170 pounds?

Justin Morneau – 3-for-5, 3 runs, 3 RBIs, 2 homers and third in three games.  Justin the nick of time!… Okay, I’m done.  Morneau should be owned, shoot, he’s doing better than Ryan Zimmerman. (<–saying nothing!)

Ike Davis – Mets told Ike he definitely won’t be going to the minors.  They had one of their doctors tell him though, since they’re never accurate.  Yesterday, he sat for Veal Rottino.  At least that’s what I think the V. stood for in the box score.

Jeremy Hefner – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  No grotto for you tonight!

Will Venable – 2-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs.  What’s this week’s Creeper not doing?  You should thank FtA for the tip of the week.

Eric Stults – 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  You know who really appreciated this performance?  Peter Bogdanovich.

Everth Cabrera – 4-for-5, 2 runs and EverCab got the Heartspark Stealsign.  Honestly, I think this is more hits than he had combined over his entire career.

Yoenis Cespedes – Changing his bat grip so he can return from the DL.  He used to nestle the knob, which might’ve caused the muscle strain.  I’d say!  Nestling knobs in the palm of your hand?  That’s the kind of thing you want to keep on the DL, Yoenis.  In related news, Brian Dozier is upset Thome is no longer in Minnesota as his dream growing up was to play with his Jimmy and the Twins.

An action packed week is in store for ya.  I know you can barely contain yourselves. Every single team has 7 games this week. Add in the fact that the start of interleague play is upon us and it is like a delicious fantasy burrito.  I mean who doesn’t like a great burrito, besides vegetarians and really weird people who don’t eat burritos.  Okay, I’m back; I had to go out and get a burrito. Where was I…Ah yes, this week in fantasy baseball for two start starters.  Man, that is clunky.  Either way, lots of really good options this week, for both maximizing on starts with some of the lads I have listed, but also the streaming variety.  So be heady this week, and keep in mind that some of your lineup selections will be affected by the no DH factor. So enjoy the 210 games of baseball action this week and good luck.  (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

5/16

Felipe Paulino vs Bal – Hunter

Chris Capuano @ SD – Richard

5/17

Jerome Williams vs CHW – Axelrod

Phil Hughes @ Tor – Hutchinson

5/18

Drew Pomeranz vs Sea – Beavan

Scott Diamond @ Mil – Estrada

TWO START OPTIONS:

Ryan Vogelsong ( Col vs. White, Oak vs Ross) I most definitely cannot sing, I can whistle though.  I would certainly not whistle a Vogel of anything, regardless of what it is.  Well, if it’s a huge piece of ice cream cake maybe.

Jeff Niemann (@Tor vs Morrow, Atl vs Delgado) If I were Jeff, I would most definitely have name my son Marcus.  Just for giggles.  Nothing gets kids to make friends faster then torment.

Bruce Chen (@Tex vs Lewis, Ari vs Miley) I wish he had a sidekick cat named Spot and posed as a janitor when he wasn’t pitching. To me that would make the world a better place.   Just don’t tell Sergeant Flint he is a drag.

Joe Blanton (Hou vs Harrell, Bos vs Lester) He should change his name to Blahton. He really isn’t blah, but compared to the other SP options in Philly he looks like vanilla in a sea of chocolate.

Ross Detwiler (SD vs Suppan, Bal vs Hammel) Looking at his home ERA makes me smile. You know what else makes me smile, not having to type out Tom Gorz-what’s-his-name’s name.

Anthony Bass (@Was vs Strasburg, Ana vs Santana) He would look a lot sexier if both of these were at home. That and the fact that he has to face St. Rasburg.  Oh, and if he sang “Take me to the river.”

Jason Vargas (@Bos vs Beckett, @Col vs Friedrich) One of those guys that looks better on your fantasy team, then everyone else realizes. I hope he changes teams midseason and pulls a Fister, literally not figuratively.

Wade Miley (@LAD vs Billingsley, @KC vs Chen) ERA is better away from Chase Field.  I wonder if it has to do with the ATM fees when you’re not banking at home.

Paul Maholm (@STL vs Lohse, CHW vs Peavy) If you like to roll the dice then roll Maholm for 4 straight wins, 1 earned run or less in each start.  Just don’t tell Marmol that he has a lead because he will want to blow on those dice.

Homer Bailey (@Atl vs Delgado, @NYY vs Nova) I couldn’t hate a fantasy player more than this guy. Okay,  I just got yelled at by my mom who said hate is a strong word.  I told her so is assisted living.

Christian Friedrich / Alex White (@SF – Vogelsong / Lincecum, Sea vs Millwood / Vargas) Combined they form the super tandem of White Christian.  Separate they may pull off the same feat.  I’m not hear to judge, there is a total separation between church and stats.

This post is not going to get into drafting strategy because Grey has already got that lined up so well and in such alignment with what I’d do, it’s not worth repeating.  Plus deep leagues usually don’t have a change to their pitching format so you don’t need pitcher pairings like you need SS pairings.  Madison Bumgarner will be the first pitcher I draft this year with how ADP shakes out and I hope to find Anibal Sanchez as well as Jordan Zimmermann on my team along with him.  I’m jumping straight to the do’s and don’ts and situations.  You don’t like it?  Don’t read it (though I secretly want you to).

I’ll Avoid:

Stephen Strasburg - The guy is a stud, no question.  He’s also got an ADP higher than Bumgarner and won’t pitch a full season…say what?  Sixth round is a little early for me to take a pitcher I know I have to get off my team by July or August.  I prefer my team to get me off, personally.  Let the other guy in your league gloat that he got Stras’ then watch as you get those ‘SUBJ: Strasburg’ emails by summer.  ‘Hey guys, Stephen’s having a great year and the Nats are pushing for the playoffs.  I’m willing to sell him for Ricky Romero or Matt Garza or something.  That’s, like, MAJOR value dudes’.  No it’s not, hypothetical Strasburg drafter and don’t call me dude.  I prefer not to be forced to replace 6th round value partway through the season.

Johnny Cueto - Yes, pretty stats:  2.31 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.  Those stats sparkle brighter than Edward Cullen after getting bedazzled (as an aside, I’m really angry I had to look up Twilight to find that name; be thankful).  But under the hood we have a K rate less than 7 per 9, and a lucky 5.8% HR/FB rate and a 76% strand rate.  He’s looking like a high 3, low 4 ERA guy with minimal K upside and a 1.20+ WHIP.  I’m not drafting that when Gio Gonzalez is going quite near his 113 ADP.  Nope, not gonna do it.  Wouldn’t be prudent.

I’ll Go For:

Homer Bailey - This is what I love about pitching.  Even in deep leagues, when your late round guys flounder, you can drop them for someone else and have a reasonably good staff.  If Homer doesn’t build on his 2011 campaign, you’re not going to be hurt.  The Reds have been quite good at keeping his innings at a reasonable level over the last 3 years.  Or maybe its his injuries that have done it.  Well, whatever, most places have him only pitching 160 innings this year with a K/9 over 7.  I’m a bit more bullish and think you can get 180 to 190 innings out of that with a 1.30 WHIP and around 155 K’s and a won’t hurt you high 3, low 4 ERA.  Hey, you don’t like that, you can take Cueto 11 rounds earlier with less K’s.  It’s your bad idea/horrible season/death knell team, not mine.

Chris Capuano – I liked Capuano so much this year, I gave him his own post.  I’ve got a thing and it’s called Greydar love.

Situation to Monitor: St. Louis

There’s a lot of situations to watch when it comes to pitching so its hard to narrow down to one.  Personally, I’ll be watching and waiting for the Cardinals to call up Shelby Miller in the summer.  When I look for a rookie pitcher to pick up, I focus on three things.  First, are they coming up in an organization that has a history of success with their pitchers?  I’d say the Cardinals have a great history of turning guys like Kyle Lohse into serviceable pitchers and that says a lot.  Secondly, will they be brought up at just the right time so their flaws won’t be exposed?  I say this as I truly enjoyed Madison Bumgarner and Daniel Hudson on my team in 2010.  They were good pitchers who had a great end of season runs that weren’t hiccup’ed by a bad start with a 2nd or 3rd turn against a team.  When those guys are your 6th and 7th pitcher, you’re pitching drifts into the ‘kinda awesome’ area.  Third, are they talented?  I’d say Shelby’s minor league stats speak for themselves on that question.  Well, not literally, they’re numbers written in the next sentence.  In 86 2/3 IP in Double-A, 9+ K-rate and a 2.70 ERA.  Okay, they’re very good numbers.

I could probably draft a team of these starters, who are drafted after the 150 mark in mock drafts, and win your league’s pitching stats.  In this post last year was Ricky Romero, Hellickson, Kuroda, Gio Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Chacin, Cueto, and Daniel Hudson.  I had those guys on multiple teams.  I don’t say this to brag, but I’m really good at targeting starters to, um, target.  Well, I’m good with hitters too, but starters I’m really good.  I’d like to say it’s because I’m smart, but since I’m sorta dumb I’m not sure what it is.  Maybe I’m an idiot savant, who I believe was Doug Savant’s cousin that had a walk-on part on Melrose Place, the Original.  And with all of that said, you should still draft a starter or two before you see any of these names on the top of your draft list.  Well, you know what to do from my top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  It’s good to have a safe starter or two before you go upside.  In the immortal words of some drunk tightrope walker, “I don’t need the net under the trapeze but I want it there.  Burp.”  There’s also a pitchers pairings post to help you along with your staff.  That’s what she said!  Wait, what?  Finally, you can check out APPLES.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target in your 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

Ubaldo Jimenez – Under that link is my projections and thoughts.  To read a less optimistic man’s thoughts on Ubaldo, click on the thing that says “thoughts on Ubaldo.”  Though that might’ve been clear.  I need a mentee to seamlessly link to shizz.

Brandon Morrow – I’ve put years of love into Morrow (that sounds like the start to a cheesy poem).  This is all I ask, one good year for Morrow (that’s an even cheesier poem start).  I can almost guarantee if he’s good this year, everyone else will like him next year and I’ll end up going the other way (cause I think if Morrow’s going to be good, it’s gonna take some luck (that sounds more like song lyrics)).

Derek Holland – My heart’s saying Holland is a potential bargain where he’s currently being drafted, but my brain is saying watch out for pitchers in Arlington.  I guess my heart and my brain are going Dutch with my excitement for Holland.

Jaime Garcia – Does he enter games to Funkytown, but his first name is substituted in for Funky?  He should.  Give the ADL something to get worked up about.

Trevor Cahill – It’s nice when you can forget BABIP, xFIP, MESHUGAS and you can fall back on simpler times like, “He was traded to the NL, that’s good for his value.”

Doug Fister -  Fister, but I hardly remember placing him in a favorable tier!  Hmm, that didn’t work so well.  But it is true.  I haven’t changed my opinion on him, but he’s also being drafted later than I think he should be, so there’s that.

Jhoulys Chacin – Know what it means when a pitcher ends up on this list two years in a row, even after producing solid results the year before?  He pitches his home games in Colorado.

Brandon McCarthy – If the last few names above McCarthy could’ve been called, “Look at the top 60 starters post.”  This next plouping could be called, “Top 80 starters.”  Two points for those that remember my use of plouping.  Better yet, you’re like a cyclops with a monocle!

Scott Baker – I doubt we see a full season from Baker, but — and this is a J. Lo-sized but — if we do, he could be a top 25 starter.  How’s dem apples?  Golden Delicious!

Tommy Milone – Is it Tom Milone or Tommy?  “Are you my brother Rob or Disco Bob?”  A nickel to anyone that gets that reference without the aid of Google.  Too late, you cheated.  You know someone who’s not cheating, but loving you all slow and low like a good BBQ?  Tommy Milone.  Yeah, so Peacock didn’t come up aces, but instead dropped a deuce.  Milone looks like he’s gonna make the A’s staff and pitch in a park that ends in “co.”  That’s good news.  Also good news, he doesn’t walk anyone, which will limit the amount he could roofie you.  Milone’s 2011 in Triple-A was a 3.22 ERA with a 155/16 K/BB ratio.  The not-so-great news, he’s not going to win any games or put up huge Ks.  That’s all right; you don’t draft Wins and solid ratio help from a late-round flyer can be helpful.  For the season, I’ll give him the line 7-9/3.70/1.18/130.  Solid last man on the staff stuff, no bluff, Aubrey Huff.  Sorry, got a little Seussian there.

Jake Peavy – See what I said about Scott Baker and add an extra exclamation mark.  Now remove a comma.  Okay, put a period there.  Yeah, that’s about right.

Edinson Volquez – We’re only three years removed from Edinson having 200+ Ks and a 3.21 ERA and now he’s gonna be in Petco.  As Pauly D would tell you, you don’t come in with a big banana and expect everything to be peaches, but it’s worth a shot.

Tim Stauffer -  I evaluate him as a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.  Why am I not a scout for a major league baseball team?!  “How does Stauffer look, Grey?”  “He’s a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.”  “I like when you use made-up words and talk nonsense.”  “There’s more where that came from!”

Randall Delgado – I could’ve also put Teheran here.  Tim Hudson is out for a month.  I do think he returns and bumps someone from the rotation, but it doesn’t mean if Delgado or Teheran are pitching well they will definitely be the ones bumped.  Jar-Jar isn’t the bill of good health and Hanson’s got a shoulder issue… Let’s just say Teheran and Delgado could both be in the rotation by May 1st.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Delgado.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Teheran:  2.55 ERA in Triple-A last year in 144 2/3 IP.

Vance Worley – In 131 2/3 innings last year, he had the stats of 11-3/3.01/1.23/119.  In the top 60 starters post, I gave Worley the projections of 12-9/3.75/1.27/130.  I’ll tell you what, those numbers are crazy conservative.  February Grey must’ve had his shorts on too tight that day.  Worley is only getting 11 Ks more from last year when he could throw 200 innings without being in danger?  He’s only winning one more game?  I said in that rankings post that I was worried about a sophomore slump, I must’ve been really worried.  I kinda want to go in, give Worley 30 more Ks, three more wins and ask February Grey what he was thinking.  February Grey, “Don’t believe me at your own risk.  See you next year… Muahahahahahaha…”

Jonathan Sanchez – I don’t buy that a guy like Filthy Sanchez, who walks everyone no matter the batter, will benefit much from the league switch and having hitters less familiar with him.  He still strikes out more than a hitter per inning and can luck into an ERA and WHIP anywhere from 3.07/1.23 (2010 numbers) to 4.26/144 (2011 numbers).  It’s worth taking the chance on that late.

Bud Norris – In drafts, when you see Bud, I would add a bid.  I think there was a pun in there, but I’m not entirely sure.

Mike Minor – On one hand, the Braves don’t seem to share my love of Mike Minor.  On the other hand, Hudson’s out for at least a month so they have room.  On the third hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, you’re late in your draft, take the flyer.  On the fourth hand that is actually one of this Hulk Hogan #1 foam hands, he’s having a great spring.

Shelby Miller – In the Cards’ minor league review, Scott said, “By all accounts, Miller has the repertoire and mental makeup of a big league ace.  With an effortless mid-90s fastball, a plus curveball, and a plus changeup, to go along with solid command, the 21-year-old should work his way into the St. Louis rotation at some point during twelve after twenty.”  Okay, he didn’t use twelve after twenty, but he should’ve.

Chris Sale – Rather than posting the Awolnation song in the Verlander overrated post, I probably should’ve put it in Chris’s sleeper post.  SALE!

Homer Bailey – In a draft recently, I told Rudy I liked Homer Bailey this year.  He said, “The Homer Bailey that pitches in major league baseball?”  Yeah, so Bailey hasn’t given much reason to trust him in his major league career, but his xFIP last year was respectable and he’s so overdue for a breakout.  And there’s the most scientific and least scientific reason jammed into one sentence.

This is almost the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there were a few guys that shot up the rankings (Hellickson, Anibal, Garza and Zimmermann), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list, but there will be some.  Now humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

61. Brandon McCarthy – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Peavy.  I called this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in the top 60 starters post.  Let’s see some names I like.  Please.”  The first two guys in this tier could’ve been called, “Young pitchers who don’t strike out many that you should start at home.”  McCarthy’s ERA at home was 2.65 and 1.11 WHIP.  As said two sentences ago, McCarthy doesn’t strike out a whole lot of guys.  Two Sentences Ago, “Why don’t you come up with your own points?”  2012 Projections:  8-11/3.50/1.17/140

62. Tim Stauffer – Last year Stauffer had a home ERA of 2.57 and a 1.13 WHIP.  I’ll give this to you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it.  Stauffer is a Hodgepadre.  Start him at home and sit him on the road.  He did have 94 1/3 IP innings at home last year, so you’re talking about a top tier reliever’s ratio stats if you hold firm when to start him.  2012 Projections:  8-10/3.80/1.24/135

63. Ted Lilly – I could’ve made a sub-tier within this tier calling these last three guys, “Pitchers that I refuse to learn from no matter how many times they burn me.”  I really believe last year we saw the beginning of the end of Lilly.  Fading Lilly, if you like pithy comments that sound like sushi restaurants.  There’s some arguments to be made that that (stutterer!) is incorrect.  He did come on in the 2nd half (2.94 ERA, 8+ K/9).  If you believe his 1st half (4.79 ERA) was just an aberration on the that-ain’t-the-real-thing tip, then I could see grabbing Lilly late.  For his price, it’s probably worth it.  2012 Projections:  11-8/3.85/1.18/160

64. Scott Baker – For those of you that can’t wait to read the end of this post just to comment that Lilly and Baker’s projections look better than Stauffer and McCarthy so why do I have them below?  Don’t.  Lilly is on the downswing of his career and Baker can’t stay healthy.  Take an upside flyer with Stauffer or McCarthy before these guys.  Those of you who didn’t read this blurb and commented about the order of the rankings, you’re not reading this either.  Too bad, I would’ve had you say hello to your mother for me.  Hey now!  2012 Projections:  11-7/3.65/1.19/160

65. Jake Peavy – If he can stay healthy, he could be valuable.  Unfortunately, my man can’t stay healthy.  Grey, you have no faith in medicine, The White Stripes.  If I were the type to say completely unsubstantiated claims with no factual evidence, I’d say Peavy can’t stay healthy because he used to do steroids.  I would never say that though.  I’m way above that!  Hopefully, there’s no my-momma-didn’t-name-me-that scandal with the reveal that he’s really Jack Peavy and actually 78 years old, but that would jive with all of his health problems.  For those worried about the integrity of our great game, I do think the name scandals will soon end with all players selling their naming rights to companies.  Now pitching for the New York Yankees… Saran Wrap!  2012 Projections:  10-8/3.75/1.21/130

66. Ryan Vogelsong – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Jackson.  I call this tier, “You may get a number three fantasy starter or you may get someone similar to Nadir Bupkus.”  Last year didn’t really make sense.  Not in general, unless you’re trying to figure why you like baseball yet weren’t that crazy about Moneyball.  I think you had to not like baseball to love Moneyball.  But I was referring to last year not making sense for Vogelsong.  He’s like 40 years old (34) and he just put up his best season, even though his peripherals (pitch speed, where the pitches were, etc.) didn’t get better from the last time he was in the States.  Maybe he can repeat it.  More likely, you’re going to get a good spot starter when he faces the Padres, Dodgers and some other weaker offenses.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.26/140

67. Jonathon Niese – Last year, his ERA was 4.40 and now the Mets are moving in the fences and constructing a giant Madoff head to blow hot air out to right field.  So why is Niese in a positive tier?  Thanks, clunky expository question!  He had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher.  Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better.  All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.32/160

68. Bud Norris – You can’t predict wins.  You shouldn’t even try.  It is totally pointless.  But since I had a “Totally Pointless” college degree this is right up my alley.  You are not going to get wins with Norris.  You will get some walks and nice Ks.  I kinda want Norris on every team.  Might even draft him on my AL-Only keeper team for when the Astros realign.  2012 Projections:  7-9/3.80/1.32/190

69. Mike Leake – His ground ball percentage was solid, walks were dropped by over one per game and his strikeouts increased (though not to a rate that is drool-inducing).  If Leake can avoid dribblers through the vas deferns, he should have some success.  2012 Projections:  13-8/3.75/1.22/135

70. Ryan Dempster – I’m tentatively liking Dempster this year.  His 4.80 ERA last year was H to the ideous, but he did have a 3.70 xFIP and a 8.50 K/9.  I’ve seen worse stats.  Some of the guys above him, for instance, they have worse stats.  I don’t know the intricacies of his contract and I don’t think you should draft someone in March with the hope they’re traded, but wouldn’t shock me to see Dempster on a pennant contender before 2012 is through.  Maybe he’ll go to the Padres, if the Yankees change their name to the Padres.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.90/1.33/190

71. Edwin Jackson – Signed yesterday with the Nats, naturally.  Looks like all the Nats needed to become a contender was to get rid of Bowden.  Great addition for the Nats’ rotation.  For fantasy, it’s a’ight.  Earlier in his career, he was better in the AL than the NL, but now that he’s matured I think it was an immaturity thing.  Funny how that works.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and kinda icky WHIP.  Worst case scenario is a 4 and a half ERA and icky WHIP.  Speaking of which, I was thinking about what’s the best best case scenario of recent times and I have to think it’s The Jersey Shore.  I can’t help watch the opening and think about how when they made that title sequence they all were probably glad to just be employed by a t-shirt shop, MTV almost axed the show before it started and none of them really had much chance for a future unless you count success by the number of acquired STDs.  Now they’re all millionaires and it’s laughable that they would work at a t-shirt shop.  Of course, the worst worst case scenario would have to be leaving the show a’la Angelina and not reaping any of its benefits.  What a stunod.  2012 Projections:  11-10/3.80/1.35/160

72. Hiroki Kuroda – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Collmenter.  I call this tier, “Solid, but unspectacular.”  See, I will draft solid with a chance for spectacular.  I’ll even take a chance on very risky with a chance for spectacular.  But “Solid, but unspectacular” gets drafted around the time I want to take flyers, so I don’t bother with this tier.  When you’re this late in a draft, it makes no sense to draft a guy like Kuroda, Danks, Buehrle, etc.  Like any investment, they’re the last one in and first one out.  It’s a shame that Kuroda was picked up by the Yankees.  When he was on the Dodgers, he was a solid back end of your fantasy rotation starter that no one ever reached for.  For whatever reason, everyone looked the other way even though his career ERA is under 3.50, WHIP’s under 1.20, walks are low and his K/9 last year was over 7.  Oh, well.  I wouldn’t draft him with your fantasy team in 2012.  AL East and The Stadium They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is two negatives that don’t equal a positive.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.90/1.24/150

73. John Danks – I’ll admit I’m probably too down on Danks.  He’s the very definition of solid, but unspectacular.  A big issue with solid but unspectacular that I didn’t mention above.  If for some reason you get less than solid, you get Danks’s 2011:  4.33 ERA, 135 Ks and 1.34 WHIP.  That’s not even solid.  At 27 years old, he should revert back to solid, but unspectacular.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.28/150

74. Mark Buehrle – Gets wins, mid-3 ERA, lots of innings… What’s not to like?  Oh, yeah, he strikes out about as much as Mystery in a college bar on “Ladies drink for free” night.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.70/1.28/100

75. Ivan Nova – With a 3.70 ERA, he won 16 games last year in 28 games started.  Basically, Blyleven would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer on the Yankees.  If you’re chasing wins, I could see going with Nova, but chasing wins is a losing proposition. (<–Turn of a phrase point!)  2012 Projections:  14-8/4.00/1.33/110

76. Gavin Floyd – I’ve tied Floyd to Danks in my rankings for as long as I can remember, which sounds like a nerdy version of the Goodfellas voiceover.  Floyd is a tad under Danks because of his age.  There’s a better chance of Danks exceeding his projections than Floyd, but they’re both solid, but… Well, you know.  2012 Projections:  9-11/4.00/1.26/155

77. R.A. Dickey – I don’t like Dickey, not that there’s anything right with that.  He’s totally blown away my projections the last two years, but I can’t trust a knuckleballer.  I don’t like when I’m relying on a pitcher that has no idea where the ball is going.  I’m sure he’s used to the hate.  Can’t be easy going through puberty with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.27/130

78. Josh Collmenter – You thought I didn’t like Dickey?  Try my dislike of Collmenter on for size.  Too snug?  That’s cause you have both of your arms in the same sleeve.  Collmenter had a 5+ K-rate and a 4.18 xFIP.  No Ks there is a than, but no thans.  2012 Projections:  8-10/4.25/1.24/110

79. Francisco Liriano – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Screw you, Liriano.”  He got very lucky last year.  No, not with his FIP or xFIP or BABIP or men left on base or with runs scored for.  He got lucky I didn’t kill him.  2012 Projections:  11-11/4.30/1.35/155

80. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Volquez.  I call this tier, “You’ll probably drop most of these guys by mid-April and may not even have the nads to start them once on your team, but you may as well take a flyer.”  (The projections in this tier are optimistic.)  I saw one ‘pert didn’t rank Cecil in his top 100 starters.  I thought that was odd.  He’s only 26 years old.  Then I looked at mock draft results and he wasn’t anywhere.  I saw Joel Pineiro.  I saw Jason Hammel.  I even saw Javier Vazquez.  He retired.  We’re all that done with a 26-year-old pitcher who was being drafted last year in the top 200?  I don’t want to point any fingers, but you — yeah, you.  Don’t look behind you. — were excited about drafting Cecil last year.  Nothing in his stats say bounce back, but between him or Pineiro or a guy that retired, I’m going with Cecil.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.30/145

After the top 80 starters, there’s a lot of names, but here’s some that stand out:

Homer Bailey - With a career ERA of 4.89, I’ve warded off Homer to use two of the better father names in the history of television.  Now, I find myself seeing a scenario where I could draft him very late.  His walk rate last year was more than one walk off his previous year.  His K-rate fell a bit, but it’s still over 7.  His xFIP was 3.77 and his team should win some games.  Bailey is long overdue for a breakout.  I’m saying sleeper and grab him late.  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it until he defecates all over my ERA.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.70/1.28/130

Chris Sale – If I had to, and I probably do, write a sleeper post about Sale or Bard, it’s a no-brainer.  It’s Sale all the way.  Sale’s only real question mark is how many innings will the Pale Hose throw him.  (BTW, if I was writing newspaper headlines in 1919, I would’ve wrote “Paint the White Hose Black.” If there’s any time travelers reading this, take it, it’s yours.)  I think Sale sees about 125 innings.  2012 Projections:  8-8/3.50/1.24/130

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I still think the Red Sox make a last minute move to keep Bard in the bullpen and acquire another starter.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.70/1.22/160

Brad Peacock – I already went over my Brad Peacock fantasy.  It’s January Grey’s favorite post.   2012 Projections:  9-8/3.60/1.30/170

Edinson Volquez – If he gets 200 innings, he will strikeout 200 hitters.  Look at the rest of this post and try to find another guy K’ing 200.  So why isn’t he ranked higher?  Well, there’s this little problem with him walking people like it’s his job.  It’s not his job.  If that’s getting lost in the translation, someone should tell him that is not his job.  Yo camino no trabajar!  2012 Projections:  8-12/3.75/1.33/200

Ricky Nolasco – This is the last tier.  This tier is called, “I didn’t forget these guys.  I’m just not drafting them.”  Nolasco hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in 3 years, but if you’re playing in a league that counts K/BB rates or guys that underperform, then by all means go with Nolasco.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.25/1.29/150

Wade Davis – He had strikeout numbers in the minors, and I think those return from wherever they went, but I’m not drafting him on the assumption they will.  Could be a nice during-season-pickup if he gets his shizz together.  2012 Projections:  10-10/4.15/1.35/115

Carlos Zambrano – Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed.  My money’s on the latter.  2012 Projections:  11-10/4.10/1.35/130

Johan Santana – The Mets are hoping to get 25 starts out of Johan.  The Mets are saying he’s a question mark for Opening Day.  The Mets pronounce players ready to return usually six months before they’re back on the field and they’re saying bad things already about Johan.  Instead of drafting Johan, if you’re into torturing yourself, try meeting up with random people from Craigslist’s Missed Connections.  Here’s one, “You didn’t tan, your freckles merged.  Now I want our bodies to.  I saw you at the Jiffy Lube on Tuesday.  I can’t wait another 3 months or 3,000 miles.”  2012 Projections:  7-5/3.75/1.22/80 (in 120 innings)