Fantasy Baseball Advice

Linguist, academic and all-around good guy with a lot of free time on his hands, David Crystal says there’s been no definitive research on how many people are actually laughing out loud when they type out el oh el  (Thanks, Wikipedia!).  I’m guessing the number is less than 50% and the number of people actually rolling on the floor laughing when they type that dopey acronym is far less.  I bring this up to impress on you the amount of things read on the internet that turn out to be false.  With all that said (and it was a lot, wasn’t it?), the internet tells me the Yankees are going to promote Jesus Montero in the next couple of weeks.  If you read that and no streamers or balloons fell from the ceiling, then pull the rip cord harder.  In keeper leagues, he should be owned already.  If he’s not, I’m assuming you’re in an NL-Only league or a mixed league filled with atheists.  Back in February, the two thousand and eleventh year of Jesus Montero’s call up, I gave him the projections of 20/5/30/.290 in 100 at-bats.  Still sounds about right.  I’m a God, mortal!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hanley Ramirez – Day-to-day with a sprained shoulder.  That sounds like nothing for a guy who plays through injuries and just lives and breathes the game like he’s Luke Appling or some other old timey player.  Unfortunately, that’s not Hanley Ramirez.  My guess is he’ll miss at least five to seven games.

Omar Infante – 3-for-5, 2 homers.  Hmm… I feel like I heard about him somewhere recently…Something about how you should pick him up…Oh, I know.  I wrote it yesterday.  I’m a genius, even if I need the spellchecker to spell genius.

Jason Isringhausen – Screwed the turkey, or whatever that cliche is, yesterday for the second day in a row.  Give Bobby Parnell, who sounds like a character Don Cheadle would play, the closer job.  Sure, Parnell hasn’t been great, but at least he has a potential future.  What do you have to lose?  More games?  You can only lose one game at a time, which sounds like something Casey Stengel once said.  BTW, he really got the short end of the “That guy has the greatest quotes” stick compared to Yogi.

Johan Santana – Felt discomfort and is having his shoulder examined.  Maybe the Mets can trade Johan’s shoulder for Chipper Jones’s lower back.  Assuming they both pass through waivers.

Ricky Romero – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  He only gave up one hit… A homer to Desmond Jennings!  Don’t you love when I work Desmond Jennings into other players’ blurbs?

Jose Bautista – 1-for-3 with his first homer since, like, when the U.S. gave Canada its independence.  Though I’m no history buff.  “Take hockey, ‘eh’ and weird police outfits.  Leave the Mckenzie brothers.”  That’s me at the Treaty of Vancouver.

Yunel Escobar – 1-for-3 with his tenth homer, and his first since June 30th.  Tends to hit a few after he gets one, so look for him to tack on.  Not tacky though, like that bald guy on Design Star.  What, I’m the only one that watches HGTV?  C’mon, three lady readers, where are you?

David Price – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks and wasted a Desmond Jennings’ homer.  See?

Ian Desmond – 2-for-3 with his 4th home run.  Has been so nonexistent for so long, I kinda thought he retired from baseball and opened an emu farm selling giant eggs.  Hopefully, if there is a God besides Jesus Montero and Jesus Guzman, Ian Desmond will get hot.

Michael Morse – 2-for-5 with his 18th homer.  Dash-dash-dot.

Derek Lowe – 4 IP, 7 ER.  Can’t spell Derek without reek.

Jose Constanza – 2-for-4 as he started in place of Heyward.  A’la George Costanza, “FREDI!”  Would’ve been awesome if Constanza would’ve went into the dugout between innings, then when his name was announced to bat, if he would’ve ran out with no shirt on. This Heyward/Constanza shituation is worth monitoring.  In NL-Only leagues, I’d grab Constanza for steals.  He did steal 49 bags in Double-A and 23 this year in Triple-A in only 86 games.

Chris Davis – 2-for-5 with his first home run for the Orioles, or the Orange Birds as no one calls them.  If you need to catch lightning in a bottle with power, Davis could provide it.  The preceding was brought to you by Bill James’ beard.  No, not that definition of beard.

Mark Reynolds – 3-for-5, 5 RBIs and his 24th homer.  Earl Weaver could’ve managed the shizz out of this team.

Brennan Boesch – 3-for-4, and his 16th homer and 5th steal for the nourishing slam & legs.  Tellin’ ya right now (as if that’s not obvious), it’s gonna be hard to figure out where to draft Boesch next year.

Alex Avila – 2-for-3, 3 RBIs and his 11th homer.  His July (.197, no homers) kinda smelled like an old man’s fart, but every other month he’s been usable.

Edgar Renteria – 1-for-4 with a home run.  I’m not proud to tell you this, but I picked him up in one league where I was hurting for a middle infidel.  Sometimes trades give players a boost in the arm.  And sometimes you need a booster shot in the arm if you have the Renterias.

Homer Bailey – 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Don’t care, I wouldn’t pick him up.

Garrett Jones – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and two homers.  How dare you steal the thunder from the arrival of Ryan Ludwick! Assuming you can make sure Jones never sees a lefty on your fantasy team, he might be worth a look.

Alfonso Soriano – 2-for-5 and two homers as the Pirates pitching staff decided to suddenly regress to what they should’ve been all year.

Kyle Kendrick – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Somewhere, Joe Blanton, “That could’ve been me!  I swear!”

Troy Tulowitzki – Left the game after hurting his pinkiewitzki.  Should be fine to go tomorrow.  Hopefully, since his fantasy owners paid top dollar for his final two months of production.

Ervin Santana – 9 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Extremely solid start following his no-hitter.  Also, Johnny Vander Meer’s family can stop following him around now.

Mark Trumbo – Hit his 20th home run yesterday.  I get the feeling he’s going to take a big step forward next year.  Assuming the Sciosciapath doesn’t bench him for an Izturis, an Aybar or a Mathis.

Jason Kipnis – Now has three straight games with a homer.  “Why didn’t I pick him up?”  That’s you after you see someone else in your league grab him.

Phil Hughes – A complete game shutout! (Okay, the game was rain shortened to six innings, but whatever.  Final thirds are overrated.  I would’ve loved Inglourious Basterds without the final third.)

Matt Holliday – Hit his 16th homer and got his first steal.  See, just needed a little razzing.  BTW, do something, Pedro Alvarez!

Paul Goldschmidt – 1-for-3 with his first major league homer.  Or as you say his name in German, Au Shit!

Hiroki Kuroda – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks vs Latos (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks) as the two offensive powerhouses, Dodgers and Padres, met in Petco.  Luckily, someone scored and this game didn’t need to be decided with a game of duck, duck, goose.

Mike Adams – 1 IP, 1 ER.  If there’s no Padre fans, is there still derisive laughing when Adams gives up runs?  Ponder that after three bong hits.

Danny Duffy is much better than Stan Stuffy.  Or Brian Bruffy.  Now Gerry Guffy, well, he’s another story.  Stephen literally just went over his Danny Duffy fantasy.  He wrote it in pink highlighter while having cornrows put in his hair.  Oh, Stephen.  So what can we expect of The Duffman?  Maybe just a spot start.  Though when the Royals announced it was only a spot start they did wink, wink, nudge, nudge the Royals beat reporter.  His stuff/numbers have been dynamite this year.  The Royals should just keep him in the rotation.  I mean, who are they rushing to get back to in this rotation?  Jeff Francis?  Vin Mazzaro?  Nadir Bupkis?  No, blech and belch.  I’d grab Duffy in AL-Only and very deep mixed leagues then wait to see if he stays in the rotation.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Guerrier – Just when you thought you had the Dodgers bullpen figured out, Don Mattingly bats his long, beautiful eyelashes and brings Guerrier on for the save.  How many closers do the Dodgers have now?  I don’t know, but more the Guerrier!  What’s that circling above Dodgers Stadium?  Oh my God, it’s save vultures!  Don’t you dare peck at Vin Scully!  He’s a national treasure!  I think everyone knows how I feel about Padilla.  I think he’s crizz to the ap.  He’s not an effective closer.  Guerrier, actually, can be.  That still means to get Guerrier to five saves on the year in the City of Angels he needs a wing and a prayer.  (Pun point!)  But I would grab Guerrier if I had room and really needed saves.

David Wright – The Mets made a shocking move yesterday putting Wright on the DL a day after saying he wouldn’t need the DL.  The Mets lie, when they cry…

Ubaldo Jimenez – 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks.  After having a 16:15 K:BB ratio in his previous three starts, it’s good to see him have 7 Ks and only one walk in this game.  Well, I mean, it’s good for his owners to see, I don’t own him.  Natch!  (Though I do own Pedro Alvarez… Biatch!)

Troy Tulowitzki – 1-for-3 with his 11th home run.  Guess this means he’s going to now hit 10 homers in the next two games.  Well, ain’t you Prince Charles?  (Not sure what that means, but some old lady said it to me at the post office when she thought I was cutting.  Actually, it was more like, “Back of the line, Prince Charles!”)

Josh Johnson – His arm MRI came back negative, which is positive, not just in opposite world.

Rafael Soriano – To the 15-day DL with an elbow injury.  Or maybe he just didn’t like where they were planning on batting him during interleague.

Alex Rodriguez – 2-for-4 with 2 homers.  Or one homer for each time Cameron Diaz calls Jeter’s name out during sex.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – To the DL.  Alfredo Aceves will take Dice-BB’s spot in the rotation.  I look forward to Alfredo throwing meatballs to Saltimbocca.

Gio Gonzalez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Here’s what I said in the preseason about Gio, “He went 13 innings over the 30 inning Verducci threshold last year, but Verducci’s a crackpot who told you to avoid F-Her, Latos and Josh Johnson (in 2010).  I’m sorry, but he’s throwing darts at a board.  Can we all agree to never listen to him again?  This year I expect Gio to up his K-rate from 7.67 to a mid-8 and to keep his walk rate (which isn’t great) around where it is or lower it slightly.”  And that’s me quoting me!  So far his K-rate is in the mid-8′s and his walk rate is slightly lower than where it was.  Gio is real and he’s beautiful.

John Danks – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks as his team won but he stayed at 0-6.  My Win Karma is so terrible –> Match Game refrain, “How terrible is it?” It’s so terrible that we’re in 2nd in one league, 5 points out of first and we have a one in wins.  Not only is it a one, but we have only 12 Wins, making us 5 wins away from getting 2 points.  We have 12 wins after a month and a half!  That’s two wins a week even though our ERA is 3.49!   And one day in April we got 4 wins in that league.  We have 8 wins in 41 other days of the season.  Or less than a win every five days.  In one of our NL-Only leagues, we have 22 Wins.  Sorry, that was probably only interesting to Rudy and me.

Elliott Johnson – Now has 2 homers in his last two games and three steals.  For a middle infielder, I say the same thing as Fonzie’s horse, “What the hey!”  I’d grab him just to see if this hot schmotato can keep hitting.  Keep in mind, his minor league numbers say he has very little power, but he could steal 20 bases.

Wandy Rodriguez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks, but no win because Mark Melancon blew the save.  Second time in 4 games Wandy’s gone this deep into the game and lost the win.  This Wandy no decision has me feeling Melancholy.  I would’ve been Lyon about it two weeks ago.  Maybe Wandy could help ingratiate himself to the bullpen by taking them to Six Flags and buying them spray-painted t-shirts.

Mark Melancon – First, the Astros refused to name Melancon the closer, now he blows the game.  In one of my leagues, I went to the Wilton Lopez dispenser and grabbed one.

Brett Wallace – 1-for-4, batting .321 and hit his 3rd homer yesterday.  Not terrible numbers, but, wow, this guy is yawnstipating.

Hiroki Kuroda – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks and his ERA is down to 2.80.  And, for whatever reason, I will still get questions on whether or not Kuroda’s worth owning.

Francisco Liriano – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Honestly, if he didn’t do this vs. the Mariners I was going to tell everyone to drop him.  So, now you have the good fortune of holding onto him.  Yay, you.

Jaime Garcia – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Now has a 1.64 ERA.  I could totally be remembering this wrong but I think Jaime Garcia has had a 1-something ERA two years in a row now.  Who died and made him Prince Charles?!

Roy Oswalt – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks in his return from the DL.  After the game, he said, “I felt good out there.  I was mumbo-jumboing around like a lily pad on the back of hornet’s nest.  Now where’s my tractor?!”

Asdrubal Cabrera – Hit his 7th homer yesterday.  In a race that has captivated Razzball nation and made me want to cry, Asdrubal now leads Morneau by 6 homers.  You don’t even want to know how many RBIs Asdrubal has compared to Morneau.  Let’s just say it’s more than double.

Brian McCann – 2-for-2 with 2 homers as he hit a pinch hit homer to tie the game, then in his next at-bat he won it.  Pretty heroic stuff.  Could be McCann hinting at another presidential run.

Julio Teheran – For what it’s worth — or wurst if you’re German — after his start on Wednesday, Teheran is being sent right back down due to the Braves schedule not needing a fifth starter for two weeks.

Daniel Hudson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Brought his ERA down to 4.03, next stop 3.50.  Woot, woot.

Matt Garza – 6 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Hope everyone took my advice to grab him.

Carlos Pena – 2nd day in a row with a home run.  He could hit 15 homers this month and it wouldn’t surprise me.

Tyler Colvin – Singer/songwriter, Tyler Colvin, was demoted to the minors.  As recently as last week, Matthew Berry said Colvin would hit 40 homers this year.  I kid you not.  Berry, “My motto’s go big or go home!  Maicer Izturis will be the MVP!  I go big or I go home!  Miguel Olivo will hit more homers than Miguel Cabrera!  I said it!  I go big or I go home!  I’m not saying all of these things will be true!  Or that some of them will!  Or any of them!  I go big or I go home!”

Kendrys Morales is out for another 6 months with surgery to remove scar tissue.  Who was the first surgeon to operate on him?  Dr. Nick Riviera?  Hey, boys and three girls!  Bummer for the Los Angeles Angels of Not Los Angeles County…I mean, hello, Trumbo.  Giddy up, snitches!  The Sciosciapath has to play Trumbo now, right?  I mean, probably.  Can’t put anything over on that sly fox.  And by ‘sly,’ I mean dumb.  And by ‘fox,’ I mean not a fox.  If you’re hurting for a corner man, this should be all the incentive you need to sound the Trumbo.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Grady Sizemore – It’s the return of Wounded Knee.  Sizemore went for an MRI for his knee pain.  In other news, water is wet, taco diarrhea burns and astronaut ice cream is delicious.  If you own Sizemore, consider therapy to find out why you keep trying to hurt yourself with your life choices.  “Why’s everyone in my living room?  I was just going to move Sizemore to my bench.”  “Billy, have you thought about trading Sizemore for a pitcher?”  “No!  He makes me feel special!  I hate all of you!”  “Why can’t you just do crank like your brother?!”  That’s you on the show Intervention when your family confronts you about your fantasy draft choices.  Now Sizemore’s MRI says (yes, the MRI talks) his knee is fine.  Right.  So let him play a few days, then you trade him.  He’s not going to run this year, so what do you have with Grady?  You have Beltran, Jason Kubel or a host of other some power, no speed outfielders.  You don’t have the 30/30 Sizemore of yesteryear (2008).

Ryan Braun – The Hebrew Hammer was removed from the game with an ankle contusion after he ran into an outfield wall.  Pending the seriousness of the injury, the wall may now be known as The Wailing Wall of Milwaukee.

Randy Wolf – 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Was in last week’s post about pitchers that should see a correction, and yesterday the Padres dropped a whole bottle of White-Out on his stats.

Jason Bartlett – 4-for-6, 2 runs, 2 RBIs, 2 steals, 2 Girls, 1 Cup.

Chris Denorfia – 3-for-4, home run and is hitting .370.  He doesn’t really play every day, but he should. (Really, compared to playing Will Venable every day anyone seems like an upgrade.)

Cameron Maybin – 4-for-6, 2 runs and 2 RBIs.  That’s so Maybin!

Tim Stauffer – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  After not feeding a hodgepadre after midnight, what’s the next most important rule?  Don’t start them in away games.

Edinson Volquez – 4 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Guys and three girl readers, I want to formally apologize, or apologise if you use the Queen’s oldfangled spelling, for pushing anyone to draft this schmohawk.  When you can’t go into Houston and pitch well, you’re meat.  Now hang this jerky out to dry.

Drew Stubbs – The King of Slam & Legs doffed his crown and screamed, “As you were, peasants!”

Al Alburquerque – 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Santa K, even you’ve turned on me?  For shame.  *shakes fist at the sky*  For shame!

Geovany Soto – His strained groin has forced him to the DL.  Sounds like an injury that would sideline a porn actress.

Matt Garza – He’ll be mentioned in this afternoon’s post about pitchers who should be better.  It’s an extravaGarza!

Felix Hernandez – 5 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  F-Her should’ve had a nine inning O face against the Orioles.  Probably just teaching us a lesson for drafting him in the 2nd round.

Adam Jones – 4-for-4, 2 RBIs.  He’s hitting .286 with 5 homers and 4 steals on the year.  That, friend, was a surprise to me because I swear I get at least 4 comments a day about dropping him.  He’s on a 25/15 pace.  That’s Pence-ish.  What’s the major malfunction here?

Hiroki Kuroda – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  You know how you say reliable in Japanese?  Toyota.  But it could be Kuroda.

Hong-Chih Kuo – To the DL with an anxiety disorder.  Maybe you get to take days off for this shizz in Taiwan, but where I come from, we bottle up our emotional issues and play like crazy until we have a heart attack and die prematurely.

Matt Joyce – 2-for-5, back-to-back games with a homer while batting .358.  Sure, it won’t last but that matters?  Rhetorical!

David Price – 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  You know who is annoyed he avoided Price this year?  This guy!

Scott Baker – 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 11 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Ream me up Scotty!

Matt Capps – 1 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Nathan hasn’t given up a run in almost two weeks.  Um, that’s only three appearances. Not now, Random Italicized Voice.

Jason Kubel – 2-for-3, 4 RBIs and his 4th homer.  Prolly a tad late on talking about Kubel.  I’m *pinkie to mouth* Kubelated.  Not sure what eggs you got in your outfield basket, but right now Kubel’s a good egg.  Usually, I find he has salmonella.  (BTW, I’m waiting for someone to name their daughter Salmonella.  Hopefully it doesn’t then go viral.)

Eric Hosmer – He hit his 1st homer.  Guess what else?  *taps finger, scratches chin, trims mustache, plucks nose hair*  Give up?  He’s batting third!

A.J. Burnett – 7 IP, 6 baserunners (1 Hit), 6 Ks.  Now has an ERA of 3.38.  Quite a change from Ass Jack’s 2010.  His walk-rate is in the vicinity it was the last time he had a respectable year, so it’s possible he keeps it going.  (Relatively, he’s not more than a 3.75 ERA pitcher.)

Ryan Madson – Recorded his 5th save, has an ERA of 0.60.  “That whole ‘he doesn’t have what it takes to close’ thing was an obvious motivational tactic.  Dur.” That’s what the Phils pitching coach will say any day now.

Leo Nunez – 1 IP, 2 ER.  As we learned last August, when Nunez goes south, he goes monkey-fightin’ south fast.  Mike Dunn would be the handcuff.  Then if he gets the job, after every save you can scream, “Mmm…Dunn!” and throw your mitt in the air like Jesse Orosco, because you wear a glove to watch baseball games, even at home.

Scott Podsednik – Blue Jays release Pods, hope to retain his wife.

Rajai Davis – 4-for-4 with his 2nd game in a row with 2 steals.  Somebody’s got the fever for the SAGNOF!

Craig Kimbrel – 1 IP, 2 ER with the blown save.  I love you, Kimbrel, so why do you hate the ones you love?

Ian Desmond – 2-for-6 with 2 steals to bring his total up to 12.  Wow, is he gonna go 10/30 this year?  Cause that would be huge.  (Be even nicer if he hit .270.  But that’s quibbling!  Or is it?!  No, actually it’s not.  Seriously, get to .270.)

Miguel Cabrera – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs when he was ejected for arguing with the home plate ump.  Went something like this, “Taste great!” “Less filling!”  Well, you know Miggy — he always wants to stick around after the last call.

I could probably draft a team of these starters, who are drafted after the 150 mark in mock drafts, and win your league’s pitching stats.  In this post last year was Jonathan Sanchez, Cueto, Colby Lewis, Tim Hudson, Jorge de la Rosa, Clay Buchholz, David Price, Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos and Ian Kennedy.  I had those guys on multiple teams.  I don’t say this to brag, but I’m really good at targeting starters to, um, target.  Well, I’m good with hitters too, but starters I’m really good.  I’d like to say it’s because I’m smart, but since I’m sorta dumb I’m not sure what it is.  Maybe I’m an idiot savant, who I believe was Doug Savant’s cousin that had a walk-on part on Melrose Place, the Original.  And with all of that said, you should still draft a starter or two before you see any of these names on the top of your draft list.  Well, you know what to do from my top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball.  It’s good to have a safe starter or two before you go upside.  In the immortal words of some drunk carny, “I don’t need the net under the trapeze but I want it there.”  There’s also a pitchers pairings post to help you along with your staff.  That’s what she said!  Wait, what?  Anyway, here’s some starters to target in your 2011 fantasy baseball drafts:

Ricky Romero -  Whenever I hear his name, I always want to sing The Batdance by Prince and replace Vicki Vale with Ricky Romero.  Never the hoo!  I love that Romero’s K-rate has been steadily climbing the past few years and think it continues to rise.  There’s going to be some moments during the season when you’re gonna get sonavabenched by him and other moments when you’re gonna wish you benched him vs. some AL East teams, but I still like him.  Stop the press!  Who’s that?  Ricky Romero!  Ricky Romero!

Brett Anderson – I’m not thrilled Rudy put Anderson his risky pitcher post.  I’m also not thrilled when I get along well with a girl that has angry brothers.  Just depends on how much risk you’re willing to take on.

Jeremy Hellickson – I think Hellickson is going to be in the rotation in June.  I’m not sure if he’ll be in it in April, no matter what is currently being reported.  I’m not a big fan of sitting on players for two months who are in the minors unless it’s a deep keeper.  Hellickson should be a good one though.  (<–Illuminating!)

Hiroki Kuroda -  He has a 3.60 career ERA in almost 500 IP, he pitches in a pitchers’ park and his walk rate is tidy.  Sure, he doesn’t strikeout a lot of batters, but his K-rate isn’t terrible.  Yet, he’s perennially underrated.  I guess real G’s move in silence like lasagna.

Gio Gonzalez – Another guy from Rudy’s risky pitcher post.  Do I not have enough stress in my life?  Va fongool, what are you going to do?  Even Rudy admits in the post for the right price, everyone’s ownable.  (Speaking of va fongool, as some of you know I’m half Italian (the good half).  So I was hanging with my Italian grandfather and his paisans and one of the guys was Tommy DeSimone’s cousin.  Pesci’s Goodfellas character is based on DeSimone.  The cousin told stories about DeSimone whacking people with such pride that it got me thinking.  Who else but the Italians are so proud of a murderous legacy?  Most convicted murderers families can’t even show their faces from shame.  I love that about the Italians.  And that’s Deep Thoughts with Grey Albright.)

Javier Vazquez – It’s interesting to me that people watched Vazquez go into the AL East and The Stadium They Built Next To The House That Ruth Built and they still drafted him aggressively last year.  Now this year, people are ignoring him.

Jorge de la Rosa – This list is starting to get unwieldy so I’m going to get to the point, if you want to read about dlr, click his name.

Jordan Zimmermann – In my pitchers pairing post (which I link to in the intro; scroll up, doode), I talk about how I’m going to have Zimmermann or Mike Minor as my sixth starter in every league.  So far, hasn’t worked out the way I drew it up, but it’s not from a lack of trying.  It’s those auctions, ya’ll.   Everyone can bid on everyone, which sounds like a Brand Nubian song.  BTW, I should write a sleeper post for Zimmermann.  That’s a note to myself.

Jonathon Niese – Has a nice K-rate, good walk rate, pitches in Metco and ESPN doesn’t even rank him in the top 300.  For a real crack up, ESPN ranks Niese 138th for all starters.  Just in front of Bobby Cramer, who I believe was the little black kid in the movie Role Models.

Derek Holland – Obviously his K-rate potential is enticing.  I like him real late in deeper mixed leagues, but he plays in an unforgiving park and he walks people.  It’s a’ight; I like him better in AL-Only leagues.

Mike Minor – Looking for a Latos from 2010 type breakout?  Here ya go.   Though, if Beachy is the fifth starter on the Braves, then Minor’s useless.  Though II, The Return of Though, I think the fifth starter job will go to Minor.

Jhoulys Chacin – Another guy that didn’t escape Rudy’s risky pitcher wrath.  Rudy can be such a buzzkill sometimes.

Johnny Cueto – How is he being drafted on average at the 254th spot?  Is Jason LaRue drafting multiple mock teams just to suppress Cueto’s ADP?

Carlos Zambrano – Can put him in the Kuroda camp.  Sure, when you draft Zambrano, girls aren’t going to flock to you and sit on your lap and shizz, but, let’s be honest, if you’re playing fantasy baseball those chances are low anyway.

Edinson Volquez – He’s going to have some games where you want to strangle someone.  It’s the nature of the beast with a guy that walks people.

James McDonald – He’s being drafted after Andy Pettitte.  Makes sense. /sarcasm

Tim Stauffer – Mark my words, prematurely balding man, by the end of April, you will be asking me if you should pick him up.  The answer is yes.

Brett Cecil – I did a “Find” for Cecil at Mock Draft Central’s ADP 300 and he wasn’t on it.  I then double and triple checked my spelling because I was sure he would be.  Nope, not there.  Then I did the same on ESPN’s top 300 and still no Cecil.  I did find him on my top 300.

Daniel Hudson – He’s at 145 at ESPN, so he misses the cutoff, but I’m doing as I do and ignoring my arbitrary cutoff.

Edwin Jackson – Potatoes to chips, I try to avoid reading other fantasy advice so I don’t inadvertently get influenced, but I have a pretty good idea who people are going to get crazy over with their sleeperitude.  Edwin Jackson is not one of those guys.  If I had to guess, no one else is telling you to draft Edwin Jackson.  Or at least no other sites that you read.  So this is a trust exercise, do you fall backwards into Grey’s advice?

The royal we just went over the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball.  For those that skipped the title, this post is the top 40 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball.  If you’re looking for the hitters, it’s under the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings, which is also at the top of the page.  Barring unusual circumstances, I usually try to grab two starters from this list of twenty.  So I’ll have one starter from the first twenty and two from this, which gives me three.  Math’s been berry, berry good to me!  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball:

21. Dan Haren – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Billingsley.  I call this tier, “Times weren’t always the best for some of these guys last year, but here we are in a new year.  Nice of you to join us.” Wasn’t it swell when Haren could be relied on to only pitch well in the 1st half of the year?  Yeah, swell indeed.  Unfortunately, May and his 6.08 ERA happened.  However, his xFIP was only 3.62 in May.  Across the board in the 1st half of last year, his terrible luck haunted his ERA.  Boo!  He’ll only be 30 years old for the majority of 2011 and we’re about to see a nice bounce back year from him.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.  2011 Projections:  15-9/3.60/1.18/215

22. Tommy Hanson – In May and June combined last year, he had a 5.70 ERA.  Yet, I kinda want Hanson on every team of mine.  Even AL-Only ones where I draft him as Hommy Tanson and pretend he’s on the Mariners.  I’m not thrilled with the drop in K-rate that we saw last year, but there was no velocity loss so I’m not overly concerned.  I’m getting that vibe that this is the last time we see Hanson outside of the top 10 starters for a long time.  (Since I’m going to get it in comments, here’s my attempt to explain why Hanson’s below Haren but has better projections.  A) As I’ve said all along, if a guy is the same tier as another guy, they’re interchangeable.  B) There’s more risk attached to Hanson’s projections than Haren’s.  C)  There’s no C.  2011 Projections:  14-7/3.20/1.15/190

23. Max Scherzer – If the AL Cy Young voting ends up in 2011 as Dan Haren, Max Scherzer and Hommy Tanson, I wouldn’t be surprised, other than, of course, there is no Hommy Tanson.  As for my Scherzer fantasy, it’s under where it says Scherzer fantasy.  I’m drafting Scherzer all over the place and haven’t been this giddy since the first time I touched a boob.  2011 Projections:  14-9/3.40/1.22/210

24. Matt Cain – Member when we let things like xFIP dictate whether or not we were going to draft Cain?  Those were the days, huh?  It was way back in 2010 when we found out a hashtag wasn’t a breakfast item, meat could be worn as a dress and our suspicions were confirmed that a union of Ryan Reynolds and Scarlett Johansson made no sense.  Cain is nothing but a 3.50 ERA pitcher with solid Ks, which isn’t bad unless you don’t like number two fantasy starters.  2011 Projections:  13-9/3.50/1.12/180

25. Brett Anderson – During last year’s preseason, I warned you to avoid Anderson because of his innings in 2009.  (Kinda like I’m doing this year with Latos.)  Now that we got 2010 out of the way, we’re back in again on Anderson.  The K-rate that fell to a 6 per nine will bounce back a K or so.  The ERA will be around a low 3.  And he might only win three games because of the A’s hitting.  We’re going to ignore that bit of potential trouble.  2011 Projections:  10-6/3.15/1.18/150

26. Chad Billingsley – He feels like an elder statesman, but he’ll only be 26 years old entering the 2011 season.  Not sure if we ever see the huge Cy Young-type season I once imagined for him, but he’s been a fairly consistent 3.50-ish ERA and around 8 Ks per nine pitcher.  God willingsley, he won’t try to imitate Dorothy Hamill this year.  2011 Projections:  14-8/3.50/1.22/185

27. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Nolasco.  I call this tier, “Some ‘perts are drafting these guys.  I’m not.”  I’m sorry, I just can’t get on board drafting Carpenter.  I mean, I would draft him if he were to fall this low, but it’s not happening.  He gets drafted way too early for me when I look at his K-rate and his age.  You have to draft him as a number one, and, for me, he’s not a number one.  2011 Projections:  14-10/3.45/1.15/150

28. Tim Hudson – I’ll be honest, I almost put Hudson in a tier of guys I would draft.  In fact, I did put him in a tier of guys I don’t want, then switched him to a tier of guys I do want, then switched him back to a tier of guys I don’t want, then I went to the bathroom and forgot what I was doing otherwise I might’ve switched him back again.  What ultimately had me skipping Hudson is his K-rate last year.  I just can’t roll with a 5.47 K-rate, even if he was better at striking guys out in the 2nd half of the year.  2011 Projections:  14-10/3.75/1.20/130

29. Phil Hughes – Know when I’m going to draft Phil Hughes?  After he’s traded away from the Yankees.  Nothing personal.  He just had the 2nd worst fly ball rate in the majors and he plays in The House They Built Next To The House That Ruth Built.  Just can’t draft that headache.  2011 Projections:  14-11/4.00/1.22/160

30. Josh Beckett – I’m getting the sense that people are whirlybirding around Beckett like he’s about to resurrect from the dead.  Yeah, um, maybe, but I have enough stress in my life just waiting for my Netflix Instant Queue to buffer.  I don’t need to pray Beckett’s better in the AL East while pitching in Fenway.  2011 Projections:  15-9/4.15/1.24/170

31. Trevor Cahill – Makes sense that Cahill can’t even buy a K in his last name.  In 2009, Cahill’s K-rate was 4.53.  Last year, it was 5.40.  It’s a good trend but I’ll wait until 2012 when it’s actually up to something presentable.  No Ks is a than, but no thans.  He’ll probably have an ERA over 4.00 in 2011, but I’ll be generous and give him… 2011 Projections:  8-9/3.90/1.15/130

32. Ricky Nolasco – Underlying numbers, schmunderlying numbers.  In his career, he’s had one year of an ERA below 4.50. Let him figure it out on someone else’s team.  You owe it to your ulcer.  2011 Projections:  12-7/4.35/1.25/170

33. Shaun Marcum – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Volquez.  I call this tier, “I kinda love these guys.”  I touched on Marcum briefly in the Adrian Gonzalez trade post.  He needs more press from me.  He was solid in the AL East, now he gets the NL Central.  Here’s my doesn’t-really-make-any-sense-whatsoever-and-is-not-really-reliant-on-anything-but-my-gut prediction, Marcum’s starting the All-Star Game.  You heard it here first!  (But please forget I said anything about this if he has a poor April.)  Nonsense, hedging parenthetical!  Marcum’s going to have a terrific year.  Go all in, loyal Razzball reader.  2011 Projections:  15-8/3.35/1.15/185

34. Daniel Hudson – Daniel Hudson is getting a sleeper post this afternoon.  I originally wrote the post on the back of my Trapper Keeper with a giant heart around the whole thing then transcribed it into WordPress.  2011 Projections:  12-9/3.50/1.18/190

35. Gio Gonzalez – He went 13 innings over the 30 inning Verducci threshold last year, but Verducci’s a crackpot who told you to avoid F-Her, Latos and Josh Johnson last year.  I’m sorry, but he’s throwing darts at a board.  Can we all agree to never listen to him again?  This year I expect Gio to up his K-rate from 7.67 to a mid-8 and to keep his walk rate (which isn’t great) around where it is or lower it slightly.  It’s a step forward, ya’ll.  Maybe he slows down next September but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.  2011 Projections:  12-8/3.60/1.28/195

36. Edinson Volquez – I already drooled out a Edinson fantasy post.  2011 Projections:  13-9/3.80/1.35/190

37. Ted Lilly – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Dempster.  I call this tier, “Kinda boring, but reliable number three starters.”  I don’t think anyone gets up and does a jig after drafting a guy in this tier.  There might’ve been a time when the Wandwagon brought you some excitement, but, let’s face it, the only one excited about owning an Astros pitcher is Ed Wade’s toupee.  These pitchers are good to balance out a little bit too much upside in your number two starter like, say, Volquez or Gio.  As for Lilly, he’s about as reliable as they come.  With him pitching the whole year in the NL West, you might even get lucky and find yourself with a solid number two to borderline one fantasy starter.  For instance, Hudson was in my boring tier last year and he far exceeded it.  2011 Projections:  13-9/3.55/1.12/155

38. Wandy Rodriguez – As I went through the top 40 starters, something became apparent.  There’s a crapton of guys I’d draft.  I might be able to grab four starters from the first 40 guys.  And we haven’t even got to my upside 4th and 5th starters yet like Romero, Bumgarner and everyone’s favorite, Yo-Lease.  As for Wandy, he’s a reliable number three fantasy starter.  Don’t expect more and you won’t be disappointed.  2011 Projections:  10-12/3.65/1.28/180

39. Hiroki Kuroda – Hiroki is basically Wandy without the upside, and Wandy doesn’t really have any upside.  Or does he?!  Keep in mind that if you draft Kuroda, you will probably grow bored of him and want to drop him.  2011 Projections:  12-9/3.45/1.18/140

40. Ryan Dempster – You might’ve noticed that C.J. Wilson didn’t even make this list.  He’ll be in the top 60 starters.  It takes me a long time to trust these converted reliever guys.  It’s called being stubborn.  But you can’t say I’m in denial.  As George Bush said to the Iraqi Information Minister, “No sir ree Bob!”  2011 Projections:  14-11/3.85/1.30/190