Fantasy Baseball Advice

Desmond Jennings was called up. “No, he wasn’t.” “Yes, he was.” “No.” “Yes!” “Yes!” “No– Wait, I was the one saying yes.” Or so went us, me, you, we for the last two months. Why do we care so much? Because we have a void in our own lives? Oh, you meant it more why do we care about Jennings so much, gotcha. He’s the number one prospect in baseball for fantasy, according to Grey Albright, Fantasy Master Lothario. There’s guys that can hit with more power. There’s pitchers that have great stuff, but speed translates easiest to the majors and Jennings gets a lot of his value from his legs. Also, he’s had a great OBP through the minors, so getting on base shouldn’t be an issue. Then you throw in his teen homer power and you’re looking at a guy that could be B.J. Upton without the phantasmagorically bad average.  Call the engraver, we need a plaque for Cooperstown!  As with all rookies — or rooks if you have a short attention span — there’s the chance he falls flat on his face or steps on a rake and isn’t good until next year. Wasn’t like he set the world on fire last September when he was used off the bench (.190 average, 0 homers in 21 ABs with 2 steals). For his huge upside, you should take a flyer on him in every league. Yeah, even yours. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

B.J. Upton – As the Rays started the Jennings’ arbitration clock, they also started the Upton nice-knowing-you clock.

Alex Cobb – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 2 Ks.  The Tampa Bay Peach was much better in the minor leagues this year than he’s been in the majors, and he hasn’t been too bad in the majors.  Decent flyer in deeper leagues, but he’s not guaranteed anything.  Like all of us.  Geez, that’s dark.

Zack Cozart – Just when I drop my other shortstops, deciding to roll with Cozart, he goes and gets hurt.  I know, here’s the world’s smallest violin.  Here’s you putting the world’s smallest violin on eBay and when someone meets the opening bid of one cent, they’ll play it for me.

Mike Carp – Hit two homers this weekend while maintaining his tilde .250.  BTW, someone who raises you but isn’t your mother?  Matilde.  You’re welcome, English language.  I’m making you better.

Adrian Beltre – To the DL with hammy issues.  Know who else had hammy issues?  Kermit the Frog.

Chris Davis – Called up to replace Beltre.  Someone change Bill James’s sheets!

Josh Collmenter – 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Through 92 innings, has a 0.93 WHIP.  That’s good.  More impressively, he’s only walked one batter in his last 21 innings.

Chase Headley – I refused to own him this year…Actually, besides Bartlett, I’ve abstained from Padre hitters.  And Bartlett just for speed.  So I wasn’t exactly following Headley’s season.  Any the hoo!  He has 3 homers on the year!!!  (Extra exclamation marks provided by my 14-year-old niece.)   And he has only two homers since April 2nd.  Your deity of choice, that’s terrible.

Phil Hughes – He was in Friday’s Buy column then he went out and served you lunch in a Port-A-John.  Totally 20/20 hindsight here, but would I start him every time out?  Nope.  Do I still think he should be owned in most leagues?  Yup.  Should he be owned in your league?  Mupe.  That’s colloquial for maybe.

J.P. Arencibia – Hit three homers this weekend to bring his season total to 15.  The funny thing — and by ‘funny’ I mean not funny at all — people ask me if I like so-and-so catcher better than so-and-so catcher, and in my head I’m like, “It’s a catcher.  Just put him in your slot and stop picking the scab.”  Unless we’re talking about the difference in McCann and Chris Iannetta, there’s very little separating most catchers.  Yet, this seems impossible to get through to people.

Eric Chavez – As the trading deadline approaches, Eric Chavez is the one player that no teams are interested in.

Gio Gonzalez – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER in The House They Built Next To The House Ruth Built.  You’re basically drinking jungle juice straight from a bathtub if you started him here.

Hideki Matsui – 5-for-5.  I almost included him in hitters that had a big 2nd half last year, but I didn’t think it was possible for a repeat.  I figured he was too old, too tired and too effin’ blind from his huge porn collection.  He’s now hitting over .400 in the last week with 2 homers.  He also dedicated this big game to his anime-inspired wife.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs as he stays hot.  He’s now hit in almost as many consecutive games as there are syllables in his name.

Dustin Pedroia – Sawx scored 12 runs and Dusty went 1-for-5 with a run.  Ticker tease!

Tim Stauffer – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER in Citizens Flank.  See Gonzalez, Gio or 2 inches above.

Mike Trout – Not to be shown up by Carp, Trout went deep for the first time in his career.  Somewhere, Kevin Bass is smiling.  Trout’s also hitting .179, so there’s that.

Marlon Byrd – 4-for-5 yesterday and 2-for-3 with a home run on Saturday.  Member in the preseason when you drafted Byrd as your 5th outfielder?  Yeah, he could still do that.

Carlos Lee – 4-for-8 over the last two days with a homer.  First Byrd, now Carlos Lee — it’s like I found this roundup in a time capsule.

Adam Jones – Yesterday, a slam and legs to go with 2 homers over the weekend.  Next year, he’s gonna be 26 years old.  Giddy up.

Mike Stanton – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer this weekend.  He’s younger than the youngest Culkin brother.  Yup.

Emilio Bonifacio – Hitting streak at 23 games.  Imagine he broke Joe Dimaggio’s hit streak?  Baseball historians, sporting tweed jackets, would be jumping out of windows all over our fine nation.

Gaby Sanchez – Hit three homers over the weekend.  He (she?) is having one of those borderline seasons.  In NL-Only leagues, you’re more than happy.  In mixed leagues, you’re kinda meh.

David Wright – 3-for-4 with his first home run since he returned on Friday.  Don’t want to jinx him by saying he looks like he hasn’t missed a beat, and not totally sure if it’s a jinx just by saying I don’t want to jinx him.

Bobby Parnell – 1 IP, 2 ER.  When you don’t have the closing job, but you’re trying to get it, it’s not the best move to blow a game.  Maybe he should switch to Bob or Robert to try and instill some confidence.  Bobby’s a child; this is a man’s game!

Antonio Bastardo – Got the save yesterday.  Manuel just got on the phone with the bullpen and said he didn’t care which bastard came in and Antonio warmed up.  Madson had also saved the previous two games.

Chase Utley – Hit 2 homers on Saturday.  I hope it’s the start of something magical that would make his pomade-fueled hair proud, but sadly I think his best days are behind him.

Colby Rasmus – 2-for-4 with a home run.  In an odd turn of events, Rasmus started.  And for the Cardinals.  Geiger, let’s go!

Francisco Liriano – 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER.  If someone asks if they should still own this schmohawk, they should just put their password in the comments and I’ll drop him for you.

Justin Upton – 9 for his last 11 with 9 RBIs and 2 homers.  Still enough season left for him to make his case for being a top five draft pick next year.  Go ahead scoff, you scoffer.  But if he gets to 30/20 with a .290 average, at the age of 24 you’re going to doubt him?

Brett Cecil – 9 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I’m warning you now, I’m gonna like him a lot going into next year.  You know, I like high-K, sexy pitchers that are totally inconsistent.  These guys are the insane, hot girls that you wanna date but you really shouldn’t.  Your friend, “You should break up with her.”  “We all have our quirks…”  Your friend, “She just set your car on fire.”  “But she has great breasts!”

Adam Dunn – Went 3-for-16 (.188) this week to raise his average to .160.  My man’s on fire!

Justin Masterson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  I continue to watch every start of his with my hands in front of my eyes.  Somehow, his ERA is 2.57.

Michael Pineda – 4 1/3 IP, 7 ER as the Mariners losing streak hits 15 games.  That’s an impressive skid mark.

I call this, “Highlights of Grey and Rudy Panicking Over a Blown Win for Danks,” which is also a Jewel poem title.  Chris Sale entered in the ninth, recorded no outs, gave up three hits and three runs.  That, sir, is a ‘Fire Sale.’  Then Ozzie brought in Crain, who has a great leg kick.  He’s not the best around… Pitched wild, didn’t look good in general then was lifted so Ozzie could avoid Crain vs. Sweeney, which sounds like a Tim Burton film, and brought in Matt Thornton.  Bringing in a struggling Thornton with the bases loaded in a 4-2 game is like helping someone with impotence problems by filming them have sex.  In the end, Rudy and I lost our Danks win.  Is all that clear?  Yeah, I don’t know either.  I’d hold Thornton and Sale, in that order.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Juan Pierre – 3-for-4 with a run, but would be most valuable in leagues that count brain farts.  He was picked off twice and made his 3rd error of the year.  You’d expect better judgement from someone named after two apostles.

Hideki Matsui – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer.  Now he can reward himself with his epic porn collection.

Jay Bruce – Tweaked his groin.  Hey, sounds like Matsui!  Reds say Bruce should return by the weekend.  Matsui would tell you through a translator that’s prime groin tweaking time.

Jose Valverde – Recorded his 2nd win in two days.  In one of our leagues, we only have one win for the entire team after two weeks.  I must’ve killed puppies in a former life for my Win Karma.

Max Scherzer – 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  After the game, Max reentered Michael Chabon’s latest book about the search for Golem.

Lance Berkman – 1-for-3, 5 RBIs and his fourth homer in three games.  Sure, it’ll end but there’s no reason why you can’t be there while it’s happening.

Jorge Posada – Now has 4 homers in the first two weeks.  The same number of homers as A-Rod.  Guys and three girl readers, why do you keep asking me if you should drop him?  If he gets 4 homers a month (24 homers on the year), what else do you want?  Why is it so hard to not pick at your catcher scab?  You’re gonna leave a scar.

David Murphy – 1-for-4 with 2 steals.  As I said yesterday, you should pick him up.  Wait, is there an echo in here?

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 7 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Time for our first installment of Point/Counterpoint.  Rudy says, “He’s #3 risky pitcher of 2011 and is pitching like he’s trying to prove me correct.  He’s now 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA and hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings per start.  On the plus side, he only walked one in this game after walking 8 in his first 9 1/3 IP.”  Grey says, “He had a terrible fourth inning with a bunch of junky singles.  He only threw 78 pitches (53 strikes) into the 6th inning and the last run was given up by Glen Perkins, the pancake king.  I’d roll the dice for his next start vs. the O’s, then reevaluate.”

Denard Span – 4-for-5, 2 Runs.  A leadoff man who gets 4 singles and doesn’t steal a base is in a nutshell why I don’t like Denard Dawg.

Drew Storen – Riggleman said Storen will continue to share save chances with Sean Burnett.  Don’t you need to give Storen save chances before he can share them?

Matt Wieters – 2-for-3, 2 RBIs and his first homer.   Matt Wieters Fact:  The only person that can get Matt Wieters out is himself.

Tim Stauffer – 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  I had Wood (not like that) and Stauffer going in many leagues yesterday.  Wood looked great, should be owned everywhere.  Stauffer is a borderline fifth starter that I’d continue to roll out there for home games for one reason alone, watching a game at Petco is what I imagine watching baseball in 1968 was like.

Orlando Hudson – 1-for-4, and his 5th steal.  He’s the Padres hitting star.  I.e. the world’s tallest midget.

Aroldis Chapman – 1/3 IP, 1 ER, which usually would be nothing but he was only throwing 92 MPH… Which Usually Would Be Nothing, Part II:  The Return of Which Usually Would Be Nothing, that’s nowhere near his top velocity.  Dusty might’ve figured out a way to injure Aroldis while not even throwing him that much.  It’s an (anti-)medical breakthrough!

Josh Johnson – 7 1/3 IP, 4 baserunners (1 Hit), 9 Ks.  To celebrate, his brother, Gosh Johnson, sprayed his co-workers with champagne.  At least, everyone hopes it was champagne.

Logan Morrison – Hit his third homer and is batting .317 on the year.  I don’t know, sounds okay to me.

Vernon Wells – 1-for-5 and now batting .102, which is also the temperature under the collars of his fantasy owners.

Ian Kennedy – 3 IP, 9 ER.  Ouch… Wait, what?  Oh, ouch.

Carlos Carrasco – 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Now has back-to-back solid starts, though one was against the M’s in Safeco.  Have to be in an AL-Only league to get excited about him or any Indians starter.  BTW, Carmona ‘n Carrasco sounds like an upscale Mexican restaurant.  “Forget your pinatas, hit us!”  That’s their slogan.

Wandy Rodriguez – 5 IP, 5 ER, 11 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Obviously wasn’t a great start, but the five runs came with two outs in the 1st.  If he gets that third out there, Wandy would’ve been fine.  (And if if’s and but’s were prunes and nuts, we’d all have to wear diapers.)

Jon Niese – 6 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I hate to move on in only the second week of April, but I’ve had it with Niese and his rock n’ jock aerobics.

Justin Smoak – Hit his first homer.  He’s not in the greatest home park/lineup for production, but at some point his OBP and power are going to make me look brilliant for liking him even if it was a year or two early.  BTW,  the Mariners lineup yesterday — Ichiro, Adam Kennedy, Milton Bradley, Jack Cust, Smoak, Ryan Langerhans, Luis Rodriguez, Brendan Ryan and Chris Gimenez.  That’s murderer’s row.  As in, I’d murder the GM if I were an M’s fan.

We fill out the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the last few hitters, the top 10 utility players for 2011 fantasy baseball.  These players are only eligible at DH aka Utility.  Frankly, I don’t think you should draft any of these designated hitters.  They don’t allow enough flexibility.  For example, what if you had Travis Hafner clogging up your Utility spot last year and you really wanted to pick up Jose Bautista?  You would’ve been wretched, retching on all fours to borrow from The Decemberists.  These guys have no position eligibility for fantasy baseball.  As with past rankings posts, this top 10 for 2011 will be broken up into tiers, and their 2011 projections will be included.  Anyway, here’s the top 10 utility players for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Adam Lind – This is the first tier.  Lind is the only one in this tier.  I call this tier, “Lind will bounce back, check his eligibility in your league.”  Went over Lind’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  (Note: Has 11 games at 1st base and 16 games in the outfield.)

2. Vladimir Guerrero – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ortiz.  I call this tier, “These guys will tempt you to draft them.  Don’t.  Okay, draft Vlad if he has outfield eligibility in your league.”  Went over Vlad’s projections in the top 40 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball.  (Note: He only has 19 games in the outfield.)

3. David Ortiz – Big Popup’s HR/FB% went from 17.2% in 2007 to 14.8% in 2008 to 13.4% in 2009 to 19.0% in 2010, which was actually near his career norm.  So that means at 34 years old, Ortiz stopped the career slide and reverted back to his old ways or it means he had one last good year and will go back to the career slide this year.  I’m guessing on the latter.  2011 Projections:  80/27/100/.255

4. Luke Scott – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Matsui.  I call this tier, “Don’t draft these guys under any circumstances.”  I don’t mind picking Scott off of waivers when he’s on one of his hot streaks.  If you draft him and keep him on your team, you probably autodrafted.  You’re also not reading this so I can say whatever I want.  I was the one who used your Seven Samurai Criterion Collection DVD as a coaster.  That’s for not even knowing Kurosawa until the Barenaked Ladies mentioned him in one of their songs.  Scott’s projections are in the top 80 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball. (Note: Scott has 19 games at 1st base and 14 games in the outfield.)

5. Hideki Matsui – I worry about you and your fantasy baseball team if you even consider drafting Matsui.  If he’s on the board and you’re considering drafting him, go for an upside pick.  2011 Projections:  50/18/70/.270  (Note:  Matsui has 18 games in the outfield.)

6. Jim Thome – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Now would be a good time for the AL to revert back to the pitcher hitting.”  People convince themselves Thome is a good bet on draft day.  “Hey, he hits 25 homers!  That’s better than a flyer on some guy who I’m not even sure is getting playing time.”  That’s you.  And that’s incorrect logic.  If, say, Reid Brignac is not getting playing time when you draft and Thome is, you’re still better with Brignac because when it’s the day before the season starts and Brignac is suddenly the starter, guess whose value shoots up?  Thome’s value never goes anywhere.  Ever.  It’s like this, do you buy a penny stock of Atari hoping they regain their past glory even though they haven’t done anything new in 20 years and their factory is three Chinese men passing around a porn magazine or do you buy a penny stock of a hot shot new company that may or may not burst onto scene?  Go with the hot shot.  2011 Projections:  50/22/60/.255

7. Jack Cust – Another Atari.  Cust kayin’.  2011 Projections:  60/20/70/.235

8. Travis Hafner – More like ColecoVision.  2011 Projections:  45/15/55/.265

9. Dan Johnson – I could see telling people to pick Johnson off waivers during the season, but unless he has 1st base eligibility in your league (14 games) and your league is an AL-Only league, there’s no reason to draft him.  2011 Projections:  60/15/70/.245

10. Jake Fox – I almost put Nick Johnson here, but I was afraid if I ranked Johnson, he would read it, get excited and throw out his back.  As for Jake, I still have the “Unathletic like a Fox!” t-shirts.  As soon as he hits, they hit the market.  2011 Projections:  30/10/40/.245

Cliff Lee not only signed with a team finally, he signed with the team that would give him the most value from the three rumored suitors. (BTW, Rumored Suitors would be an awesome R&B album title.  If you’re reading Jodeci, take it, it’s yours.)  Carlos Ruiz got a new battery mate and the Philly fans don’t have to throw batteries at anyone until at least 2013.  The Adverb’s return to Philly makes me think he can easily be a top ten starter in 2011.  The Mess and Gnats can’t hurt that.  Even in Citizens Flank he’s pitched, like, Excellent Lee — 2.52 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 5 starts.  The Phillies now have the top three WHIPs for starters in the major leagues last year, with The Adverb coming in first with a 1.00.  A 1.00 WHIP in 212 1/3 IP goes a long way to helping a fantasy staff that is filled with Brain Freezes.  Wins are obviously unpredictable.  Somehow the Phillies have to lose at least 50 games.  And Lidge can only realistically be relied on for 10 of them.  For 2011, I’d give The Adverb the line of 16-6/2.95/1.05/190.  I.e., Fo’ realz?  I.e., Day-uhm.  I.e., Yup.  Anyway, here’s some more moves and what they mean for fantasy baseball:

J.J. Hardy – The O’s aren’t sitting idly by while the Red Sox put together an all-world team.  No, sir.  They landed J.J. Hardy.  You know how you make J.J. Hardy look like an upgrade?  Play Cesar Izturis at shortstop the year before.  The left side of the infield may hit a combined .240 in Baltimore.  They could also hit 60 homers.  Hardy could be a nice endgame target in AL-Only leagues.  Though a full season of at-bats is far from a guarantee with Hardy.  Though II, The Return of Though, in a full season of ABs, Hardy’s should be good for 17 to 22 homers.  Though III, The Bride of Though, his average won’t be pretty.

Russell Martin – Yeah, the Yankees are going to play Jesus Montero any year now.  Only 2011 isn’t going to be that year.  As I’ve been saying for the last two years, the Yankees just aren’t the type of team to turn over catching duties to a rookie.  This move will help Russell Martin’s value, but let’s face it his value could only go up at this point.  Before, I wouldn’t have told you to ever draft Martin.  Now, I could see taking him in the very last round of a draft.  I wouldn’t expect a return to his year in 2007 when he hit 19 homers and .293, but a return to a 10/10 year with good Runs and RBIs because of the lineup seems possible.

Hideki Matsui – Signed with the A’s.  The porn loving Hideki Matsui said through a translator that he can’t wait to give the A’s his best shot.  Matsui’s barely ownable in mixed leagues even when he’s hot, so this is more of an AL-Only blurb.  So in AL-Only leagues — meh.

Brendan Ryan – Signed with the M’s.  Know how you make this look good to your fans?  Have Jack Wilson as your starting shortstop.

Jake Westbrook had everything going against him.  No schools in his area had an athletic program.  His mother was strung out on drugs.  His father was absent from his life.  Then he met Sandra Bullock.  Wait, those aren’t my notes, that’s the back cover of The Blind Side DVD.  Yesterday, Westbrook threw 8 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Okay, in the broader sense, Westbrook is the dog’s breakfast, but you mix that with one certain pitching coach and, well… For his next trick, Dave Duncan will turn a cucumber into a pickle…mobile!  I don’t think it lasts for Westbrook, but he gets the Pirates next.  It’s September, you shouldn’t need more.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tim Stauffer – 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks.  You don’t get them wet, you don’t expose them to light, you don’t feed them after midnight and you never start a hodgepadre away from Petco.

Aaron Cunningham – 1-for-4 as he continues to hit leadoff for the Padres.  He’s also batting .400 over the last week.  I’m not picking him up yet, but I’m watching Mr. C.

Edinson Volquez – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  After the game, when asked about his playoff rotation, Dusty said, “(Edinson’s) throwing it as well as anybody we have right now.  I’d like to throw him for another 250 innings, but time does not permit unless we can get ourselves into an extra inning game that goes 200 innings.  Are you finished so I can put my toothpick back in my mouth?  I’m wasting artificial mint flavor.”

Jonny Gomes – 2-for-4 and now 4 for his last 8… Okay, like I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.  But it’s the final weeks of the season.  Play the hot hands!

Drew Stubbs – 1-for-4 with his 25th steal.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  I have a feeling which way Late Afternoon Grey is leaning.

Delmon Young – 3-for-5 with his 2nd homer in three games.  I think this season is Delmon Young’s amuse bouche.  Next year, we’re going to get the meal.

Alexei Ramirez – 2-for-4 with a homer and two steals for the slam and double side of legs.  If he could only get his act together in April… If it’s the cold weather, maybe we have him sleep in an incubator for a month.

Angel Pagan – 3-for-5, 2 RBIs and his 34th steal.  I wanna get excited about him for next year, but you know there’s a 60% chance he’s going to get injured and miss three-quarters of the season just because he’s on the Mets.

Hideki Matsui – 2-for-5 and his 20th homer.  Okay, this is my third time this week talking about him.  He’s obviously hot.  Say Hideki, bye other 5th outfielder.

Rodrigo Lopez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  If there were more games yesterday, I wouldn’t even bother mentioning Rodrigo.  In fact–

Fausto Carmona – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks.  He gets the Twins and Royals next and he hasn’t been terrific against either this year, but he has been incredible in September.  I can only walk you to the table, you have to decide if you want to roll the dice.

Michael Brantley – 1-for-4 with a steal.  Stop me if you’ve heard this before.  Too late, I already started.  Brantley’s hit in every game since the beginning of August, except for 4 (stutterer!).

Ted Lilly – 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  Frank McCourt said Jamie could have him.

Jonathan Sanchez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 12 Ks.  Have I mentioned lately how much I love Filthy Sanchez? 3.21 ERA on the year, 188 Ks in only 176 2/3 IP and a 1.23 WHIP.  He’s the poster boy for why you should just start your pitchers every single time out.

Nyjer Morgan – Will begin serving his 8-game suspension on Friday.  On his time off, he’s going to start filming the Ice Cube-directed comedy “I’m Smoking A J Up In The Middle Of My Name” with Elijah Dukes.