Fantasy Baseball Advice

Cleveland Indians 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (3) | 2009 (7) | 2008 (19) | 2007 (10) | 2006 (9) | 2005 (7) | 2004 (6)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [69 – 93] AL Central
AAA: [79 – 65] International League – Columbus
AA: [71 – 61] Eastern League – Akron
A+: [73 – 67] Carolina League – Kintson
A: [77 – 62] South Atlantic League – Lake County
A(ss): [30 – 46] New York Pennsylvanian – Mahoning Valley
R: [21 – 35] Arizona League

The Run Down
The Indians have been abysmal in the majors the last two years, even if they’re off to a fast start this year. They’ve had some exciting talent graduate last year (see: Carlos Santana and Brantley) amongst many others, and this year should be no different. Their system should produce a few more fantasy sleepers with Chisenhall headlining the way in 2011. The 2010 draft class was led by Drew Pomeranz, who won’t get a blurb, but know that he’s a stud with a power fastball and biting curve. Although Cleveland’s King left for the beaches of south Florida, the Indians have the talent to claim Progressive Field as a viable entertainment venue; Flo may not have the right – read, medical – insurance to correctly protect the players though. Ranked as the number seven farm system in baseball for 2011, the Indians will start giving the AL Central leaders a run for their money.

Arizona Fall League Players
Pitchers: Scott Barnes (LHP), Eric Berger (LHP), Chen-Chang Lee (RHP),
Hitters: Jason Kipnis (2B), Cord Phelps (2B), TBA (C), TBA (P)

Graduated Prospects
#1 (C) Carlos Santana; #5 (CF) Michael Brantley; #8 (RHP) Carlos Carrasco; #11 (C) Lou Marson; #15 (SS) Jason Donald; #21 (RHP) Jeanmar Gomez; (RHP) Josh Tomlin

Players of Interest
Rankings are current 2011 rankings from Baseball America.

Hitters
#1 Lonnie Chisenhall | 3B: Lonnie has a pure swing that is made for moderate power (20 to 25 home runs) with a good average. Last year, he slashed .278/.351/.450 in 460 AB with 42 XBH (17 hr) and a 77:46 K:BB ratio. Defensively, he’ll hold his own. Looks like a mini-Longoria to me. Currently playing at Triple-A waiting for June.

#3 Jason Kipnis | 2B: Think of a mini-Dan Uggla for his ceiling fantasy wise. Floor could be another Felipe Lopez. Kipnis can take advantage of mistake pitches, but his aggressive approach can leave his swing long. He has average power, is an average runner and plays average defense. Doesn’t sound super exciting but did hit .307/.386/.492 in 518 AB with 56 XBH (16 Hr) and a 107:55 K:BB ratio last year between High-A and Double-A. He is currently playing at Triple-A but is blocked by both Luis Valbuena and Jason Donald.

#5 Nick Weglarz | LF/RF: Often injured. Has a sweet stroke. Great OBP player. Moderate power. Defensively challenged. Weglarz is everything a sleeper pick has besides consistency. Weglarz is much like Jason Kubel mixed with J.D. Drew’s health. After hitting 41 XBH (14 Hr) with a 69:50 K:BB ratio in 312 at-bats last year, Weglarz’s bat has nothing left to prove. He’ll try to stay healthy at Triple-A this year.

#20 Cord Phelps | 2B: He’d get an opportunity in the early going if Valbuena or Donald both are hurt. Phelps is what he is. A smart hitter, solid defender and, well, boring. He could provide some value if hot at the shallow middle-infield position. Currently boring Triple-A managers and fans alike.

Pitchers
#2 Alex White | RHP (SP): He has superb control with is 87 to 92 MPH fastball with heavy sink. He also throws a two-seamer, a slider and a splitter. White induces plenty of groundballs. Ceiling is a fringe number one starter, or a number two or three starter. He’ll get a major league opportunity in the latter part of 2011. Currently throwing at Triple-A trying to match last years 150 2/3 innings.

#15 Hector Rondon | RHP (SP): Projects more as a reliever than a starter. Rondon throws a low 90s fastball that tops out at 96 MPH. His slider is fringy and his changeup is average at best. These pitches were good enough for a 8.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 last year in 146 1/3 innings. This year, he is still a starter and is pitching at Triple-A

#19 Josh Judy | RHP (RP): The Honorable Josh Judy is a mirror of Rondon. Judy throws a mid-90s fastball with a biting slider. The perfect reliever combination. With a career 10.4 K/9, look for Judy to see some late season innings at the major league level. Currently is pitching at Triple-A.

#27 Jess Todd | RHP (RP): See 1/8 inch above; career 9.3 K/9 pitcher.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Jared Goedert | 3B: Has a good double-swing and moderate power upside. Isn’t a flashy prospect but could have a wandering major league career. Maybe Kevin Kouzmanoff. His slash line at Double and Triple-A last year was .283/.358/.532 in 481 AB with 65 XBH (27 Hr) and a 112:53 K:BB ratio. If Jack Hannahan is hurt before Chisenhall is ready, Goedert is your guy. Currently hitting at Triple-A.

Pitchers
#10 Nick Hagadone | LHP (RP/SP): Hagadone was part of the Victor Martinez trade but his age (25) is starting to catch up with his prospect moniker. Struggling to gain control since Tommy John surgery, he still throws a high 90s heater and an inconsistent slider. Although a starter in the past, projects best as a reliever. In 85 2/3 innings last year, he had a 9.4 K/9 and an ulcer-inducing 6.6 BB/9. Until that control is more, um, under-control he’ll stay at Double-A.

#21 Chen Lee | RHP (RP): What I wrote about him last year still applies, “Lee throws a 92 to 93 mph fastball that has topped 96 mph [from a low three-quarters arm slot]. He also has an average slider and a developing split-finger to combat lefties. His future is in the bullpen” So a career 10.2 K/9 man is on this list for another MR. B. Currently, struggling at Double-A after thriving there last year.

Zach McAllister | RHP (SP): A spot starter at best. McAllister came over from the Yankees in the Austin Kearns trade in 2010. His stuff was good in the lower minors but more advanced hitters are taking BP out there when he’s on the mound. His 88 to 92 MPH fastball and fringe curve, slider and change-up reek of long-reliever and/or spot starter. How bad did he throw last year at Triple-A? To the tune of 5.29 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP and ratio stats of 6.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 n 149 2/3 innings. He has been known to make solid adjustments. Currently is back at Triple-A.

Cleveland Indians 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (7) | 2008 (19) | 2007 (10) | 2006 (9) | 2005 (7) | 2004 (6)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [65 – 97] AL Central
AAA: [57 – 85] International League
AA: [89 – 53] Eastern League
A+: [60 – 78] Carolina League
A: [71 – 66] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [49 – 27] New York Pennsylvanian
R: [24 – 32] Arizona League

The Run Down
After a season of trading away their major league assets and marketability (Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez and Mark DeRosa to name a few), the organization still looks like it’s in rebuilding mode. There is still some quality talent on the major league squad (Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera).  However, their team and fans should expect much of the same struggles that 2009 saw in 2010. There is some great young talent nearly ready for the majors in Carlos Santana (2010 Fantasy Outlook and his Scouting the Unknown), the major league ready Carlos Carrasco (Scouting the Unknown), and the freshly graduated Matt LaPorta; not to mention the once stud prospect, Andy Marte, at third base. Oh, and don’t forget about the speedy Michael Brantley (Top 300 Fantasy Player Rankings, Top 60 Outfielders #50). There are things to be excited for in Cleveland, it’s just not winning a pennant (or a football game). With one of the top ranked minor league systems in the majors, again, the Indians look poised for a youth invasion.

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers – Conner Graham; Josh Judy; Zach Putnam
Hitters – (C/1B) Matt McBride; (3B) Carlos Rivero; (2B) Josh Rodriguez; (OF) Nick Weglarz

Graduated Prospects
#2 (OF) Matt LaPorta; #8 (LHP) David Huff; #10 (2B) Luis Valbuena; #15 (OF) Trevor Crowe; #17 (LHP) Tony Sipp; #3 (STL – RHP) Chris Perez

Players of Interest 2010
Hitters
#3 (PHI) Lou Marson | C | AAA | 23 | .277/.361/.360 | 314 AB | 21 XBH | 2 HR | .083 ISO | 59:40 K:BB | .335 BABIP | 53.1 GB% | 19.7 LD% | 27.2 FB%
Received in the Cliff Lee trade this past season, Marson projects long term to be the backup for Carlos Santana. Marson truly is the ideal prototypical catcher. He is able to call a good game, keep the opposing teams running game in check, plays excellent defense, handles the strike zone well when batting and projects to hit somewhere between .250 and .275 with a league average OBP. But Marson is just keeping the seat warm until Carlos Santana is ready. For fantasy, Marson is somewhere between a good backup and a league average catcher.

#3 Nick Weglarz | LF | AA | 21 | .227/.377/.431 | 339 AB | 35 XBH | 16 HR | .204 ISO | 78:75 K:BB | .253 BABIP | 45.9 GB% | 14.3 LD% | 39.4 FB%
Weglarz’s slash line looks terrible due to a couple of reasons, maybe even three. Item one, he hurt his back in July. Item two, he had a stress fracture in his left shin in August. Item three, his extremely low batting average on balls in play (.253). Considered one of the most patient prospects in the minors, Weglarz is similar to Jaff Decker of the San Diego Padres. Both players are able to control the strike zone, hit for power, however, both players have questions about their physical stature and where they are going to play defense. Weglarz may need to return to Double-A to start the season and with any sort of improvement in his BABIP and ability to stay healthy, which has been a problem in the past, he should make a cameo in September.

#25 Jordan Brown | 1B | AAA | 27 | .336/.381/.532 | 417 AB | 52 XBH | 16 HR | .196 ISO | 64:30 K:BB | .370 BABIP | 43.5 GB% | 20.9 LD% | 35.7 FB%
With Grady Sizemore occupying that spot and Brown’s poor defense, he should, and usually does, play first base. He also doesn’t have above average power. His strengths are his ability to make consistent contact and drive the ball to the gaps. His BABIP would predict a lower slash line in 2010, however, John Sickels believes he could be this year’s Garrett Jones. With Russell Branyan oft-injured, Matt LaPorta yet to prove himself, and being cellar dwellers, the Indians may give Brown a chance in his age 27 season. He’ll start the season at Triple-A barring any injuries.

Pitchers
#13 Hector Rondon | RHP | AA/AAA | 21 | 8.4 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 3.38 ERA | 3.11 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 8.8 H/9 | .319 BABIP | 37 GB% | 15.8 LD% | 42.3 FB%
Rondon possesses a 90 to 94 mph fastball, a slightly above-average changeup and a fringe-average slider. His fastball has great late movement that can top out near 96 mph. At just 21, Rondon was playing with prospects several years older than him and handling the adversary quite well. As one can expect at their first stop at Triple-A, Rondon’s numbers lagged, or dropped off from previous stops in the minors. Definitely a fly ball pitcher, he is able to control the free passes (1.8 BB/9) while keeping the ball in the park (.7 Hr/9). Could be a dominant reliever or a mid-rotation innings eater. Either way, he’s a name you’ll want to watch this summer.

Jeanmar Gomez | RHP | AA | 21 | 8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 123 1/3 IP | 3.43 ERA | 3.86 FIP | 1.27 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 8.5 H/9 | .302 BABIP | 46.3 GB% | 15 LD% | 35.3 FB%
When you throw a perfect game (May 20, 2009), people are bound to notice. He throws a 88 to 91/92 mph fastball, with an average but inconsistent slider and a change that has some splitter-like action. Relying heavily on deception, Gomez isn’t going to make people’s jaws drop or mouths drool, but can provide serviceable performances and organizational depth. He’ll start the year in the Triple-A and may see a late season call up.

Josh Judy | RHP | AA | 23 | 11.5 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 49 1/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 2.59 FIP | 1.07 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 6.4 H/9 | .320 BABIP | 47.8 GB% | 10.3 LD% | 36 FB%
Used as a reliever, Judy has a deceptive 90 to 95 mph fastball that he throws with a hard slider. He keeps the ball in the park, punches out batters impressively (11.5 k/9, 188 K’s in 168 IP), and has a 1.88 GO/AO ratio. Judy could easily see action out of the Indians bullpen in 2010.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#6 Lonnie Chisenhall | 3B | A+/AA | 20 | .258/.325/.472 | 481 AB | 56 XBH | 22 HR | .214 ISO | 96:44 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 42.4 GB% | 15.2 LD% | 41.7 LD%
Chisenhall is easily the best ranked prospect in the organization behind Carlos Santana:

• Ranked #25 overall hitter by John Sickels
• Ranked #26 overall prospect by Keith Law
• #25, #17, #25 overall prospect by Baseball America Editors

His swing is considered one of the best in the minors and could easily produce above average numbers at each stop on the way to The Show. Most scouts aren’t worried about his strikeouts getting out of control or his spotty, but, improving defense. He was a shortstop at college and transitioned to third last year. The promotion to Double-A rocked his world as he slashed .183/.238/.387 in 93 at-bats. Now, that is a small sample size to draw upon, however, the peripherals show that there isn’t anything to worry about as his ISO stayed similar (.216 at High-A and .204 at Double-A) and he has a slightly below average BABIP at .275. His age and level of play puts him on the fast track to the majors. He’ll be getting more attention this summer in a Scouting the Unknown. Look for him to start in Double-A. This is a good thing as this puts him on the fast track to the majors with his movement only impeded by fringe players to begin with.

#16 Abner Abreu | RF | A | 19 | .305/.351/.488 | 246 AB | 27 XBH | 7 HR | .183 ISO | 68:11 K:BB | .399 BABIP | 49.3 GB% | 21.6 LD% | 29 FB%
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: his ceiling is tremendously high, his power is absolutely astonishing but he cannot control the strike zone and has too many strikeouts. Abreu’s at-bats are low because he dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball in the outfield in June. Nevertheless, the extremely high BABIP would indicate that his poor strike zone judgment would eventually catch up with him. Remember that his ceiling is high, but his downside is low, as well.

Pitchers
#22 Zach Putnam | RHP | A+/AA | 21 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 80 2/3 IP | 4.13 ERA | 2.74 FIP | 1.29 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 9 H/9 | .332 BABIP | 53.6 GB% | 16.5 LD% | 25 FB%
Pitching in relief this past year, Putnam throws a 90 to 94 mph sinking fastball, a slider, and split-finger that is his out-pitch. He also has a change and a curve but doesn’t use them in the bullpen. He’ll get a chance to start at Double-A in 2010, but the Indians aren’t sure where he’ll end up. In the ‘pen, he could provide the Tribe with another power arm that could go more than an inning, or a groundball backend starter. Putnam is definitely one of the more interesting prospects that I have found this off season.

#3 (BOS) Nick Hagadone | LHP | A/A+ | 23 | 11.8 K/9 | 4.8 BB/9 | 45 IP | 2.80 ERA | 3.00 FIP | 1.11 WHIP | 0 Hr/9 | 5.2 H/9 | .265 BABIP | 55.5 GB% | 7.6 LD% | 18.5 FB%
Ignore his age as he had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and returned on a strict pitch count in June 2009. Received as a part of the Victor Martinez trade, Hagadone has a 92 to 98 mph fastball, a power slider, and the potential for an above-average defense. Everyone really likes his potential, but I am hesitant to put any sort of hype into Hagadone as his control is sketchy (4.8 BB/9) and he hasn’t pitched many innings in the minors due to his injury. With only 5 innings at High-A, Hagadone has a lot to prove in 2010. His ability to keep the ball on the ground will help his status, he just needs to do this over a full season. At this point, I would reserve any more comments or judgments until further data becomes available.

Chen-Chang Lee | RHP | A+ | 22 | 10.5 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 83 1/3 IP | 3.34 ERA | 2.94 FIP | 1.14 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 7.2 H/9 | .314 BABIP | 46.7 GB% | 11.5 LD% | 36.1 FB%
If Hagadone does what Lee has done in 2009, in 2010, he’ll be receiving my praises. Lee throws a 92 to 93 mph fastball that has topped 96 mph. He also has an average slider and a developing split-finger to combat lefties. His future is in the bullpen and he’ll need to prove himself at Double-A to cement his future as a possible Tribe bullpen member. Think a solid middle-reliever and nothing more.

September 1st may mean autumn is around the corner for meteorologists, but you’re not Sam Champion, are you?  No, of course you’re not.  He’s handsome.  For us in the fantasy baseball trenches, September 1st means rosters expand and rookies are called up.  Unlike the September hitter call ups we went over yesterday, I’d use kid gloves with these call ups.  As Paula Dean might say, pitchers can hurt you, ya’ll.  If you need to take a flier on a rookie pitcher, tread carefully, young Razzball reader.  Anyway, here’s some potential September call ups to keep your eye on for fantasy baseball, the pitchers:

Aaron Poreda – I’m crazy for HodgePadres, what can I say?  Actually, I just said it.  But even I’d be careful with Poreda.  In NL-Only leagues, yes, please.  Elsewhere, maybe home matchups.

Madison Bumgarner – Scouting the Unknown broke down, Madison Bumgarner.  Bumgarner will be one of those adds that everyone does and just about everyone regrets (this year).  Though I am prepping a giggle for when Bumgarner attacks Pujols with his number 2.

Tim Hudson – I heard this kid’s got good stuff.  Hope his call up goes smoothly, he might have a nice career ahead of him. /sarcasm

David Purcey – Blech.

Carlos Carrasco – I was bonkers for him in the preseason.  That’s the drawback to working without a net in December.  Carrasco’s hype I extolled was obviously a year too early.  Don’t worry, I’m go crazy for him again this offseason.  You’ve been caveated.

Hector Rondon – Is Wedge trying to get fired?  Are the Indians trying to lose?  Heffin’ hey in the screw hole, bring up Rondon and see what he can do.  Cause right now he do what he do and he do it in Triple A.  Over a 9 K/9 and under a 2 BB/9, which comes out to 42 Ks to 7 walks.

Wade Davis – For a while he looked better than David Price, then for a while he stopped striking out hitters.  And both “whiles” came in the minors, so there will be some growing pains, Kirk Cameron.

Dana Eveland – Had a long look last year and pitched well enough for AL-Only leagues.  Might have some matchup value in September.

Brandon Morrow – Not a rookie, but I think he can make a nice fantasy impact in September.  Worth grabbing in all leagues.

Todd Wellemeyer – He wasn’t that great when he was already in the majors.

Daniel McCutchen – What’s the chances the Pirates have another fantasy-worthwhile McCutchen?  Okay, combine those odds with the chances the Pirates have a worthwhile pitcher.