Fantasy Baseball Advice

There’s only two types of years for AJ Burnett.  He’s either playing hard because it’s a contract year or he’s hardly playing because he contracted an injury.  Unless the Yanks are willing to give him a new contract every year to add to this one (which is definitely possible with the Yank$), our guess is that this will be a lot closer to a Pavano redux than a Mussina repeat.  For now, Burnett becomes the Yankees number two pitcher, though Wang might have a thang to say about that. Or maybe Joba will be considered the number two by the end of 2009.  So what say I about Burnett for 2009 fantasy baseball?

Burnett’s fairly unpredictable and now that he has a contract it’s almost guaranteed that he’s not going to be as productive in 2009 as he was 2008.  He’ll probably go in 2009 fantasy drafts sometime in the second fantasy pitching tier (think Dice-K, Haren, Shields), though he’s more likely to give you value of the third or fourth tier with all his injuries, i.e. Burnett’s overrated. But, and this is J. Lo-sized but, if he can make it through 2009 healthy, Burnett could give you 18 to 20 wins, a mid-3 ERA and 200+ Ks. In 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, this is the kind of guy I would grab if my pitching were already stacked. Let me explain, you’re in a keeper league and you already have Johan and Halladay. Here, you grab Burnett because if he flames out in 2009 — no big whoop, you’re already set with a solid one and two starter.  In all other cases where AJ’s drafted like he probably will be in 2009, I’d let someone else take a chance on The AJ Burnett Variety of Injuries Show.

I’m not looking at his wins and losses. I’m not even looking at Matt Cain half the time. Just the numbers, ma’am. His BABIP shows he’s been unlucky this season. His Ks say he can still hang with the big boys. I don’t like walks. After last night, he has a 29/23 K/BB ratio. That’s atrocious. Last night, I actually watched Cain. He’s got filthy stuff, but the numbers don’t lie. He’s not just missing; he’s missing. Last night, he walked Hawpe and Tulo then got Baker to line out. Actually he got lucky to get a line out. Then you throw in a Taveras bunt out to kill another rally and good relief from Vinnie Chulk to save Cain in the sixth inning and what I saw was a pitcher who gave up four runs in five innings in most games. I’d see what kind of offers I could get if I dangled Cain. Anyway, here’s what else I saw:

Eugenio Velez – Heffin hey, he’s fast. If you need steals, here you go. Still not sure if he can get on base with any regularity.

Mike Napoli – Now at six home runs. Does it really matter if he’s not playing every day? That was rhetorical.

Dan Haren – I didn’t end up with him on any team, but I loved him coming into the season. As I said in the beginning of the season, any concern about his 2nd half stats should be assuaged (Word of The Day) by the move to the NL.

Jon Garland – I’d say he could be a giant bust this year, but I think you need to have positive expectations for that to happen. No one really bought into Garland, did they? Except for The Orange County Angels, of course.

Frank Thomas – He got a triple? I was watching Thing 2 get the boot from Flavor of Love and missed it, but… wow. Did anyone see this? Did Vlad’s leg finally fall off when he was going after the ball? Did the Angels pull their outfield for Frank’s at-bat? I’ve seen The Big Limp barely make it to first legging out a walk; I can’t believe he got a triple. I’d like to see some video evidence of this. BTW, Thomas has value if you need some pop in your utility.

Carlos Quentin – Now with six home runs. If you still have Sheffield on your team while Quentin languishes on waivers, I’m blocking your IP. Expose yourself!

Franklin Gutierrez – Not an exciting 2-for-4, but The Big FraGu still got it. You should take gambles on fifth outfielders. He’s one I’d consider.

Mike Mussina – If he’s on your team, you’re just not trying hard enough. Laffey looked better taking the loss and that’s not praise for either pitcher.

Albert Pujols – He’s batting .382 with five home runs and 20 RBIs. Cust kayin’.

Edwin Encarnacion – Hit in 17 of the last 18 games. I think he might finally be up to 51% owned in ESPN leagues.

Brandon Wood – He was recalled by the Angels and then made to watch from the bench. I don’t understand either.

Daniel Cabrera – Member that corner he turned last week? Yeah, he just turned another corner back to crap.

Hank Blalock – He was placed on the DL? How could it be? That makes no sense. I thought he was already on the DL. Okay, you want to carpool to work because it will save you two hours a day because you’ll be able to drive in the HOV lane. But Hank Blalock and Nomar are the carpool captains for your neighborhood and will be driving you every third week. Do you drive with them or sit in traffic an extra two hours every day? Trick question.  You sell your house and move.