Fantasy Baseball Advice

Even though major league teams have only played 3 or 4 games, RCL managers have been extremely active, averaging 50 moves per league. 10.6% of rostered players were picked up from the free agent pool. Factoring in players on the DL, you’re still left with the fact that 8% of drafted players have been dumped after only 3 full days of action.

Of course, many of those moves occurred before the season started, and in the week between the 2 games in Japan and the “real” start to the season. And 58% involved relief pitchers. Some of that is managers taking advantage of the RCL’s Game Started rather than Innings Pitched limit (more on that later), but the majority appear to be chasing saves, guessing who might be the next to get the opportunities as injuries and struggling pitchers abound in the relief corps. 19 pitchers have recorded 26 saves so far this season. 4 leagues have an almost perfect score with 25 saves; I don’t think anybody owned Brian Shaw, who picked up the save for Arizona yesterday as J.J. Putz was rested. Congratulations RCL 24, ECFBL, Robust Herd, and Schmohawk in Training. 41 other leagues have 22-24 saves, while the remaining 3 have 19, 20, and 21.

18 trades involving 54 players have already been made. The biggest names involved were in RCL 38, where Big Mess traded the 13th overall pick, Carlos Gonzalez, to Team Arnold for Hanley Ramirez, the 16th pick. Big Mess had not drafted a shortstop until the 20th round (Yunel Escobar), while Team Arnold had also taken Elvis Andrus in the 5th. In RCL 46, Team Stacy traded Andrew McCutchen to Hooka Man for Drew Stubbs and J.J. Putz. RPs were included in 8 deals, with Mariano Rivera and Heath Bell among those changing teams.

OK, as promised, some thoughts on our pitching limits. For those of you in your first season in the RCL, the 180-game started limit (approximately 1 start per day) is probably different than what you are used to. It makes management of your rotation more important to get the maximum numbers from your key starters. Middle relievers also become more valuable, as you can get ratio help and add Ks without eating into your 180 starts. And, it is important to remember, stats from relievers continue to count after you reach the games started limit. It is also possible to get a few extra starts, as all stats will count on the day you reach the 180-game limit. So, if you load up on starters for that day, you could actually finish with 188 starts. See 2011 results here.

TEAM OF THE WEEK – March 28 – April 8
snooki’s baby daddy (Balls and Razz)
.304(49/161) 27 R/7 HR/28 RBI/11 SB	40.2 IP 38 K/4 W/1.55/0.93/3 S
snooki’s baby daddy rode Matt Kemp (.412/6 R/2 HR/8 RBI/1 SB) and Carlos Pena (.500/2 HR/7 RBI) to 1st place in their league with 106.5 points. Their pitching was even more impressive, with Jeremy Hellickson, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Johnny Cueto totaling 30.2 shutout innings.

I’m not putting that title up there to brag.  That’s really the name of the league.  But within a few rounds of bidding I tittered like a little school girl when Troy Tulowitzki went for $42 and Miguel Cabrera went for only $40 as proof that even Gods don’t do everything right.  I mean, have you seen what a platypus looks like?  But I digress, the draft didn’t go as perfectly as I wanted but I don’t feel bad about the end result.  With it being a 14 team league with no bench positions except for two DL spots, having a strong hitting crew was important; so important I broke a bit from the 180/80 strategy posted here.  I overspent by about $20 on hitting and left $3 on the table when it was done.  In hindsight, looking over my pitching staff and that remainder on the table, I wish I’d thrown a couple more bucks at Jordan Zimmermann who went for $12, but that’s what auction drafts are for: 20/20 thoughts about a time when you weren’t as strapped for cash as you perceived.  For the list of the entire draft results, click here.  Fooled!  Sorry, they didn’t make the league public but you should still click on that link for random awkwardness.  Now without further ado or foofaraw, here were the experts:

Razzball – ONC

FP911.com – Rich Wilson

FP911.com – Paul Greco

RotoRob – Tim McLeod

CBS Sports – Scott White

Fantasy Alarm – Ryan Hallam

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa – Bob S and Scott Swanay

Fantasy Sports Empires – Jeff Boggis

FantasyBaseball.com – Chris McDonnell

FB Tonight – RC Rizza and Todd Farino

FB365 – Charlie Saponara

RotoExperts.com – Dave Gawron

The Fantasy Man – Mike Kuchera

TPFS Baseball – Mike Myers

Full disclaimer here: I was a little nervous at first.  I mean, I was drafting to represent Razzball here.  I had a quick ‘palms sweaty, mom’s spaghetti’ moment as I had two spreadsheets on the right screen, draft on the left screen with my two hands on the keyboard and my third hand reaching for a slice of pizza.  Well, at least that’s what I must’ve been thinking when I ordered one.  Barely got a bite when nominations were posted and were alotting 15 seconds to bid.  But more to the ‘stop whining ONC, we don’t care just bring us the goods’ point: my offense is stacked.  Like a game of Jenga where the blocks haven’t been moved stacked.  With there being no bench, that’s important.  I can stream pitchers if I need it, but it’s harder to stream hitters.  I will probably move a bat in the near future for at least one solid arm to go with my core staff of Anibal Sanchez, Brandon Beachy, Shaun Marcum, and Ubaldo Jimenez but the trade will be on my terms.  I wanted guys like Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner but couldn’t justify their respective $25 and $20 pricetags.  The lone regret of my crew was the dreaded click slip – an embarassment on par with Tara Reid’s nip slip if she hadn’t been too coked out to notice - as I went to nominate Max Scherzer and wound up with Neftali Feliz for a $1.  I quickly fixed this, grabbing Henry Rodriguez for K’s and saves potential but did curse at the screen for a bit afterwards.  Thankfully, everyone had left work by that time or I might have been visiting HR the next day.

True to form from my catchers post, I treated my backstops like pole dancers, throwing singles at Josh Donaldson and Wilin Rosario at the end which oddly matched my keeper league catchers for the year.  I was saved from spending any money on Ryan Doumit when a mini-bidding war for his services came to pass, pushing his price up to $7 at the end of the draft.  I don’t have extremely high hopes for either of my guys but with how the rest of my offense came to be and how much Doumit went for – especially with the Justin Morneau as near full-time DH news – I don’t have to worry much about it.  My Evan Longoria steal left me feeling saucy.  So saucy, I actually dove right in on Hanley Ramirez when he came up and then shocked myself with a $17 Starlin Castro.  Auctions make for weird drafting patterns.  Its from SS I feel I have a good chance to grab myself a solid starter via trade if I need it.  I really wanted one of the top end first basemen but the prices were just too high to justify so I ended up with the savvy veteran – code word for ‘old as the hills’ – Paul Konerko for $17.  Not my most favorite pick, but even if he gets me 25 HRs and a .275 average, I don’t see a reason to complain.  With Eric Hosmer going for $30 and my Paul Goldschmidt and Mat Gamel pickups only costing me $11 in total, I’ve left myself plenty of trade space with Konerko as well.

Based on CBS projections and going off of this helpful Razzball post, we’re a little light in steals (148), almost in line with runs (1021), up on average (.274) & RBIs (1039) and flat out obliterating HRs (305) for a 14 team league.  As to be expected based off the draft, we’re behind on our pitching stats at the moment in wins (83), saves (66) and ERA (3.65) but are still far ahead in strikeouts (1226) and good in WHIP (1.24).  Considering there is no innings cap, we can stream for wins as needed and where appropriate.  As far as saves and steals well…SAGNOF suckas!  All and all, a bit off the beaten strategy path but still a team set to compete in a roto setting for 2012.

You smell that?  No, not your armpits.  That’s Opening Day.  The real thing this time!  I love you, you sick, twisted, little game run by an egomaniac with a bad toupee.   I love you!  I want to touch baseball’s boobies!  They are warm to my touch; those beautiful baseball boobies!  I am gushing over baseball’s boobies!  Grey, um, you’re writing this down; this isn’t your inner monologue.  Good call, Random Italicized Voice.  Embarrassing.  Speaking of embarrassing, how about that monstrosity just past the Marlins’ outfield fences?  It’s a passive-aggressive ode to a fan base and city that is loathed by Marlins’ senior management.  “You Marlin fans – all you care about are pretty colors.  You don’t even appreciate the ode to Miro!”  That was what the Marlins president said after he called Marlin fans stupid.  (The last part isn’t a lie.  You can use Google, if you don’t believe me.  I understand; the Internet made me cynical too.  I blame you, Al Gore!)  Oh, that’s all assuming you can see the outfield fences.  Where’d they put the center field fence?  Cuba?  It’s like they combined Petco with AT&T Park.  They have Cuban raftees floating just past the outfield fences.  You got humidity blowing in, fences 28 miles off the coast of Key West, my beautiful Giancarlo Stanton, whose boobies I’d gush over too, and now I got agita.  We should suggest in the comments what to call this pink and aqua-blue hot mess the Marlins call a stadium.  I got one idea, Unicornco.  Anyway, here’s what else happened yesterday in 2012 fantasy baseball:

Matt Holliday – 0-for-5 as he hit third.  Looks like that’s a big Pujols to fill.

Rafael Furcal – 3-for-5, 1 RBI (which isn’t a Ron Ben-Israel) and a steal.  This is something I’ve noticed in my *covers mouth* years covering fantasy baseball.  Old players get off to fast starts.  I think it has to do with them not being tired of the grind of the long season yet.  Their legs are still fresh.  You’ll see, Alfonso Soriano will start the year fast, Torii Hunter will start hot, etc. etc. etc.  There should be a name in the glossary for these old players that start hot.  Suggest in the comments.  Thank you.

David Freese – 3-for-5, 2 RBIs, 1 Run.  A nationally televised game and Freese turns into Babe Ruth.  I will now call you, The Primetime Kid.

Kyle Lohse – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 Ks.  Last year, his April ERA was 1.64 and his May ERA was 2.57.  Okay, so there’s worse flyers for the early months of the season.

Hanley Ramirez – 0-for-4 and looked about as good at third, giving away at least two base hits.  Also, Reyes and Ramirez are really going out of their way to bring in a new Miami crowd.  Miguel Olivo’s probably soooo jealous.

Josh Johnson – 6 IP, 3 ER, 12 baserunners, 4 Ks.  On the bright side, he didn’t get injured.

Andrew Bailey – Underwent successful surgery in Cleveland, then visited the Jock and Skoal Hall of Fame, which features a glob of Lenny Dykstra’s used dip and an extracted mouth lesion from Terry Francona.

Alfredo Aceves – For a man that invented the sandwich wrap, Bobby Valentine is totally crackers.  Yesterday, he announced that Aceves would be the Sawx closer.  Let’s see, a pitcher who would be better in relief is in the rotation (Bard), a pitcher who saved games last year is in middle relief (Melancon) and a pitcher who whined that he wanted to start (Aceves) is the closer.  To recap — Huh, what, oh, okay, wait, what?  Valentine said Aceves would see the save if the Sawx were leading in the first game.  He didn’t say anything about game five or ten or twenty.  It may be needlessly nitpicky, but I think there’s something between the lines there.  Obviously, Aceves is the first one to own right now, but I wouldn’t drop Melancon if you have room.

Kyle Farnsworth – Diagnosed with an elbow strain that’s “not a major concern.”  And I’m getting an elbow strain from making the “jerking off” motion after hearing them say it’s “not a major concern.”  The Rays can spin this any way they like, but a pitcher with an elbow strain in April is a major concern.  I wouldn’t hesitate to grab Peralta, though the Rays are saying they may use a committee.  Is anything done better by committee besides jerk seasoning, which is flavor by committee?

Sean Rodriguez – Named the Rays starting shortstop…. And he’ll probably be benched at least twice a week unless he becomes a hot schmotato.

Jed Lowrie – Astros’ GM said he would wait until Friday to decide on whether or not he was going to DL Lowrie.  Sounds like even the Astros’ GM doesn’t own Lowrie in fantasy.

Devin Mesoraco – Dusty announced Hanigan would be the Opening Day starter.  Well, that stinks, but to take the sting away, Votto is buying a Lamborghini for the first 2,000 fans in attendance.

Hector Santiago – Robin Ventura has still said nothing about who’s the actual closer in Chicago.  This is ridiculous.  The season’s started already, name someone!  No wonder Nolan Ryan beat the crap out of him.  As of right now, I’d go with Matt Thornton, Hector Santiago, Addison Reed and Jesse Crain.  I have little to no confidence in that order.  So, as Al Pacino would scream at me, , “No, those closers are out of order!”

Brandon Belt – When Bochy lifted his giant melon out of bed yesterday, two things were on his mind.  First, I want to make Grey happy by having Brandon Belt make the Opening Day roster.  Second, I wonder if they make back support but for heads.  Can’t help on the second, but thank you and your giant cantaloupe for the first one.  Here’s what I said in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, “If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year.  The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain.  Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together.  2012 Projections:  70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)”  And that’s me getting very excited about Belt!  He still has great promise for a better tomorrow.  This message was brought to you by the Committee to Elect Grey Albright for Public Office and Stop Whoever Keeps Vandalizing the L Out of the Word Public.

Josh Outman – Hits the DL after he injured himself vomiting.  I thought only the players’ wives got injuries like that.  Anna Benson, “Finally a pitcher who understands me!”

48 leagues made 14,400 selections at the draft table in March. 440 different players were chosen, with 218 being selected in all leagues. Another 15 were drafted in 47 of the 48 leagues. 33 were taken in just 1 league.

Last year Albert Pujols was the first choice in 37 of the 38 leagues, but this year there was a bit more variety. Miguel Cabrera led the way with 28 selections at #1, while Pujols trailed with 10. Ryan Braun (5), Matt Kemp (4), and Jose Bautista (1) also were honored with a first-overall pick.

Those 5 went in the first round in every draft, along with Joey Votto. A total of 20 different players were drafted in round 1, including Alcides Escobar, surely by someone thinking they were in a Fantasy Razzball draft. First basemen dominated round 1 with 207 selections, followed by outfielders (170), third basemen (87), shortstops (67), and second basemen (39). Pitchers were selected 6 times, with Roy Halladay (4) and Justin Verlander (2) taking those spots.

Miggy had the top ADP at 1.8, followed by Pujols at 2.1. The rest of the top 10 consisted of Kemp (4.1), Braun (4.2), Bautista (5.1), Votto (6.2), Troy Tulowitzki (6.5), Evan Longoria (9.6), Adrian Gonzalez (10.2), and Robinson Cano (10.4). Cabrera’s face injury may have worried a few drafters, as Pujols had the slightly better ADP (1.7 to 2.0) over the last 2 days (11 drafts). Roy Halladay (19.4) was the top pitcher, 18th overall, followed by Clayton Kershaw (22.6) and Verlander (22.9). Craig Kimbrel was the first relief pitcher chosen 45 times and finished with a 70.7 ADP.

Hanley Ramirez: Despite the horrible 2011 from the consensus 2nd-overall pick, drafters weren’t giving up on Hanley. He went in the first round 18 times, and the 2nd round in the other 30 drafts for a 13.6 ADP.

Carl Crawford: People were not as willing to trust Crawford would return to form, and he was generally chosen in the 6th or 7th rounds.

Eric Hosmer: Razzers are all in, driving his ADP to 41.4.

Ian Kinsler: Was taken in the 2nd round of every draft, improving on his 2011 ADP by 17 spots.

Giancarlo Stanton: Lots of love for the man they used to call… I want to say Mark, but that doesn’t sound right. Anyways, he usually went in round 2, but did fall to the early 3rd on 4 occasions.

The Defending Champion: Random ItalicizedVoice is back to defend our title (I was in his league, so I must have had something to do with it) and picking out of the 10th slot started his team with the Gonzalez Gang, Adrian and Carlos, followed by Ryan Zimmerman. Now, don’t embarrass us, RIV.

The ECFBL: The toughest 2011 league has returned and once again followed their own path, drafting fewer starting pitchers than any other league. With the average being 80 starters per league, the ECFBL took just 64. Pitchers they ignored who were drafted in the other 47 leagues include Jhoulys Chacin, Bud Norris, Wandy Rodriguez, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Justin Masterson.

We Like You More Than Grey Does, Mr. Bourn: Ranked 125th by Grey in his top 300, RCL drafters still valued him highly. He was picked as early as 25th, with an average of 47.4. Also in this category would be David Ortiz (184th/ADP: 85.1), Ben Zobrist (96th/ADP: 53.1), Ichiro (148th/AD:97.3) and Dee Gordon (165th/ADP 108.6), along with pitchers James Shields, Matt Cain, and Matt Moore.

We Can’t Agree: David Freese was drafted as early as 109th , and as late as 283rd, a 174 slot difference. Jose Tabata was picked 124th and also 292nd. Jason Kubel’s ranged stretched from 98 to 264.

What Does Grey See That We Can’t, Roger? Grey has Roger Bernadina ranked 201st, in a tier called, “You may get a top 20 OF from any of these guys. Or a guy you want to drop by April 15th.” Every other OF in this tier was grabbed at least once, but not Mr. Bernadina.

>>You can find all the draft numbers here.

Looking forward to another great year of Razzball Commenter League action. I’ll be posting stuff in the fantasy baseball forums all season, so check it out. Good luck!

Traditional, smarishional, am I right?

I mean, long gone are the days when your soon-to-be father-in-law would actually pay you (in sheep, no less) to take his wretched daughter off his hands.

Similarly, Razzballers are becoming masters of their own domains and kicking the traditional 5×5 fantasy baseball game to the curb. According to this survey, a ton of you guys are adding OPS to your leagues. OPS is on-base plus slugging – basically the sum of a player’s OBP and their slugging (to put it in almost identical wording).

I understand it, it’s new. The long ball is fun. It’s not the 1940s anymore when players hit only singles and everyone had tons of acres and sheep and whatnot to give away.

Back to fake reality: if you’re in one of these newfangled leagues, you have to change the kind of dowry you offer for certain players.

Black OPS All-stars

Not surprisingly, a lot of hitters featured in the OBP value risers will gain value in OPS leagues. Jose Bautista, Lance Berkman, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher all become even more valuable in this type of league. In addition a few other guys gain a good bit of value.

Hanley Ramirez: Shortstops, as a whole, tend to suck even more when it comes to OBP and OPS leagues. Troy Tulowitzki stands a cut above the rest. However, even including last season’s disaster, Ramirez is the #2 SS in OPS over the last three seasons. For his career, Ramirez has a .886 OPS. While he might not get back to his .900+ OPS ways, a .370 OBP and .450 slugging percentage would net him a .820 OPS, which would have been in the top 40 last season and third at the position. A resurgent Hanley is a phenomenal option in OPS leagues.

Carlos Gonzalez: Gonzalez posted the 12^th best OPS among OFs last season and has the third best OPS since 2009 at the position. A .365 OBP and .545 slugging percentage (i.e., .910 OPS) seem par for the course with Gonzalez now. That’s a top 15 mark most years. If you add the steals and other counting numbers, Gonzalez becomes an incredibly interesting option in the late first round.

Carlos Beltran: A healthy Beltran represents huge value in OPS leagues. He has the seventh best OPS since 2009 among OFs and posted the ninth best mark at the position just last season. Over the last few seasons, Beltran has increased his walk rate and OBP, and, when healthy has maintained an ISO above .215. Beltran will post a .372 OBP and .487 slugging percentage, meaning an .859 OPS. He has the upside to #1 OF status for your team who you can probably get as your third OF.

Kevin Youkilis: Youkilis (Grey’s geriatric love), who didn’t post an OBP below .390 from 2007-2010, could have been mentioned in the OBP piece (but he’s a no brainer in that format). However, he has posted the 10th best OPS over the last three years. While his 2011 OPS (.833) was low by his standards, it would easily finish top 10 at the position. Outside of health, the only concern entering 2012 is that lack of fly balls from Youkilis last season. Unless he is trading fly balls for liners off the green monster, his slugging percentage will suffer (as it did in 2011). For that reason, Youkilis seems like a .490 slugging guy (oddly right in line with his career number). Add in a .395 OBP and you have an .885 OPS, which would have been second at the position last year and 16th overall. Even if you want to dock him a few more points in SLG and OBP, he’s still a top OPS performer.

Mark Teixeira: Teixeira is tied with Ryan Howard for the 10^th best OPS among first basemen over the last three seasons. Still, that OPS lands him in a tie for 21st overall during that time. OPS, it’s a first baseman’s game. Teixeira shows that you can obtain elite production in OPS from the back-end of the first baseman pool, suggesting waiting on a slugger makes a lot of sense. Teixeira has an .877 OPS with the Yankees and should be good for a .360 OBP and .510 SLG this season, i.e., an .870 OPS, which would have put him among the top 25 players last season and eighth at the position.

Sleeper OPS

Jim Thome: Thome has the 15^th best OPS over the last three years. During that time, he has averaged 27 HRs, a .376 OBP and a .526 SLG. While last season was nowhere close to his near-vintage 2010, it was in line with his production in 2009. For the Phillies, a .360 OBP and .480 SLG is not out of the question. That would give him a solid .840 OPS. The at bats might not be there, but he’s decidedly worth a flier in OPS leagues.

Josh Willingham: Surprisingly, Willingham is tied with Jayson Werth for the 41st best OPS over the last three seasons. That places him tied for 14th among OFs during that span as well. While Willingham’s OBP struggled last season, it was the first time he was in the American League and first time his walk rate dipped below double digits. Clearly some adjustment was needed and Willingham hit far better in the second half. There’s no reason Willingham can’t get his walk rate back to 11.5%, which should push his OBP to at least .355. In addition, he slugged .477 last year in Oakland, so he should have no problem putting up a .470 SLG in Minnesota. This would give Willingham an .825 OPS, which would put him in the top 20 at his position.

Luke Scott: Last season was a disaster for Scott. However, in the previous three years, he averaged a .348 OBP and .497 SLG (.845 OPS). Of course, there is a legitimate chance father time is catching up to Scott as he will be 34 this season. Nevertheless, he is mostly an afterthought in drafts and should be a cheap lottery ticket in OPS leagues.

Matt Joyce: Joyce, 27-years-old, has put up an .829 OPS over the last two seasons. While he took a small step backward in OBP last year (his walk rate was 9.4%), there’s no way he can’t get it back to 11% or so. If he does, he can post a .355 OBP. In addition, Joyce is entering his prime, hit more line drives last year and could be good for a few more extra base hits. A .482 SLG would net him an .837 OPS, making him an incredibly solid option in OPS leagues. In addition, his splits give you a blueprint to use him, i.e., only when a righty is starting.

Dexter Fowler: There aren’t many speed guys who rank among the OPS leaders at their respective positions (and calling Fowler a speed guy might be generous). Fowler’s .796 OPS last season was 29th for OFs and he demonstrated solid growth throughout the season. His three highest OPS months were in the second half and there was a near 200 point gulf between his first half OPS and second half. Fowler has always walked at a good clip and has posted 21%+ line drive rates the last three seasons. A .365 OBP and .435 SLG are not out of the question, which would help him reach a .800 OPS. Those numbers are a tad optimistic, but he could also improve on them. The biggest aspect of Fowler’s game that limits his value is his failure to use his speed. He was 12/21 in SB attempts last year and is 52/80 in his MLB career. Still, Fowler has two important ingredients in a base stealer: speed and OBP. Call Fowler a real big sleeper in OPS leagues.

Taco Bell Black OPS (non)Ballers

There is a bunch of cross-over from the OBP post to the OPS one when it comes to sucky guys for this format (cough shortstops). Alcides Escobar, Ian Desmond, Ichiro and others who don’t get on base a ton and hit a lot of singles lose tremendous value in OPS leagues.

Elvis Andrus: Andrus had the 13^th best OPS among SS last season (behind Erick Aybar, Derek Jeter, Emilio Bonifacio, Yunel Escobar and others). While Andrus has begun to walk at a decent clip and his ISO double last season, his career OBP and SLG are separated by just .003. Andrus will get on base just fine (.350), however his SLG won’t be much higher (.360), leaving him with a pretty terrible .710 OPS. There’s better ways to get 40 SBs than sacrificing that OPS.

Jimmy Rollins: Surprisingly, Rollins posted the 11th best OPS last season at the position and has the 16th best OPS over the last three years. His OPS during that time is lower than Marco Scutaro and Juan Uribe. Rollins’ ISO has trended down since 2007 and has apparently stabilized at .130. While he has begun to walk more, he has also tried to hit more fly balls (potentially to make up for his lack of power), which has zapped his batting average. Consequently, he is giving back the OBP he would have gained with his walks in trying to hit homers. At this point, he looks like a .330 OBP and .400 SLG. He won’t post an OPS much higher than Andrus in 2012.

Michael Bourn: While not as weak as Andrus, Bourn doesn’t drive the ball at all. Bourn maintains value in OBP leagues, but posting around a .700 OPS leaves fantasy owners wanting. Bourn is basically Mark Reynolds in OPS leagues. He provides elite value in one-category while hurting you remarkably in another. He’s not quite as disastrous as Reynolds in average, but it’s probably better to get speed somewhere else.

Alex Rios: Even when Rios was great in 2010, he didn’t crack a .800 OPS. In fact, his OPS over the last three seasons is barely in the top 90 OFs. Even if he bounces back in an optimistic sense (.325 OBP and .440 SLG), that’s a .765 OPS, which would have tied for 34th at the position last year and would be worse than what Jon Jay did.  Right now, he’s ranked 70th at Fleaflicker, which is madness, but even if he were another 100 spots later, I’d pass in an OPS league.

Cameron Maybin: Maybin is an odd case as he walks a decent amount and has the potential to drive the ball (.130 ISO last year, .132 for his career), yet he has a .704 OPS for his career. Still, he has posted mammoth OPS seasons in the minors and is still relatively young, so there is room for optimism. However, not even the most optimistic projections (.350 OBP, .425 SLG) get him to an .800 OPS. In reality, it’s far more likely he posts a .330 OBP and .400 SLG. That marginalizes his 40 steal potential.