Fantasy Baseball Advice

Luke Warm on Hochevar

May 11, 2009 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 127 Comments →

Royals prospect Luke Hochevar was called up yesterday to replace Sidney Ponson in the rotation.  But he’s Aruba’s favorite son!  You know who I feel bad for?  The Royals caterer.  With Ponson out of the rotation, who’s going to eat that side of cow he ordered?  Hochevar has been lights out so far in the minors with a .90 ERA, .95 WHIP and 5-0.  His 30 Ks in 40 innings is solid, not quite crazysexycool.   He doesn’t seem like the kind of pitcher that is going to dominate like, say, a Volquez last year.  Fortunately, he’s cut his walks this year.  As I said with Cecil two weeks ago, you pickup Hochevar to see if dominates.  Cause if he does dominate, people will start going gaga goo-goo for him and then you can flip him.  Or you take the rookie pitcher’s thunder, slide it next to your lightning and make it rain.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joakim Soria – Went to the DL.  Juan Cruz will fill-in mostly, with Jamey Wright maybe seeing the occasional chance.  You’re thinking, I’m not bothering with Cruz, Soria will come back and be fine.  Who cares if he comes back and he’s fine?  Cruz may take the job and hold it for the next two months while accumulating 15 saves.  Or maybe Soria returns fine in a week.  All I know is Soria has said his sore shoulder dates back to WBC (Nice, Selig!) so maybe he doesn’t recover that quickly.  Add Cruz, ask questions later.

Hank Blalock – 2 HRs, 9 on the year and zero DL stints.  Somewhere Nomar shakes his head, disappointed.  Maybe Blalock’s staying healthy because it’s his walk year and he wants to, um, walk.

Jorge De La Rosa – Over the weekend, he threw a spectacular game where he K’d 12 ‘lins.  More importantly, he only walked one.  Walks have always been his issue, but it’s looked like he’s harnessed his control.  I’d throw him in his next start against the Pirates.  Keep in mind, he’s capable of giving you a devastatingly awful start.  High risk/high reward — no pain/no gain and all that shizz.

Troy Tulowitzki – Hit his 2nd homer yesterday in the last three games.  Though he was pulled from game in the ninth with a tweaked quadriceps.  Seemed to be a day-to-day thingawitzki.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper left Sunday’s game with elbow soreness.

Rick Porcello – 5 IP, 1 ER.  Was a good matchup for him and he’s a good matchup starter.

Juan Pierre – 6 hits in two games.  Led off yesterday and he stole his third base.  This is what it looks like when Pierre’s flexing.

Orlando Hudson – Hit third yesterday.  Zoinks!

Emmanuel Burriss – Member how hot Bonifacio was the first week?  That’s what Webster’s doing right now.

Kenshin Kawakami – 6 IP, 2 ER.  Myers and him battled in a 1-1 game that looked like it should’ve been a 10-10 game.

Mike Gonzalez – Pitched a scoreless 8th inning because there was three lefties up in the 8th.  Soriano will continue to get the occasional save.

Dustin Pedroia – Tweaked his groin.  Michael Jackson was wildly successful in the 80s doing that.

Jay Bruce – Hit his 10th home run yesterday.  He’s on his way to 30+ homers, 10+ steals and a .270 average.  Bruuuuuce!

Adam Wainwright – 6 IP, 4 ER. Obviously not a stellar start, but the encouraging sign is there was only one walk.  Then again, it was the Reds, not exactly the most patient team.  Wainwright is turning into more of a split between a number two/three fantasy starter, rather than a number one/two.

Ryan Franklin – 1 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Phew, Gagne’s record is safe. Consecutive save record, not the record for the biggest difference between one’s pre- and post-steroid performance.  B. Giles is still going after that record.

Kip Wells – Recorded his first save over the weekend.  I’d place the over/under at 7 and take the under.

Casey Kotchman – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs.  In Friday’s roundup, I thought Kotchman was breaking out.   He now has 2 homers this past week and has tied for the NL lead for doubles.

Bret Cecil – 8 IP, 0 ER.  With Romero set the return, Cecil probably just bought himself a little more time in the rotation.  He gets both colors of the Sox in his next two starts.  If you could flip Cecil for a junky closer right now, I would.  Otherwise, ride the lightning, Lars.

Brad Ziegler – 1 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  I’d say Kazaam, but I don’t even think he’s the closer anymore.  The A’s want Ziegler as a long man in the bullpen and one and two-thirds innings would indicate what the A’s want, they get.

Alexei Ramirez – 0-for-7 since Ozzie put the Nix gun to his head.  [sarcastic] Way to step up! [/sarcastic]

Adam LaRoche – 4-for-May with zero RBIs.  Looks like he’s decided to go cold in the 1st half after all.  Now is that any way to set an example for your little brother.

Brandon Morrow – Returned for the save and to give up a run in a shaky inning.  I’d hold Aardsma for now if you have room.

Roy Oswalt – 6 IP, 4 ER.  Winning the game, but giving up four runs against the Padres is like winning a stuffed animal for your kid by slipping the carny a twenty spot.

Travis Snider – His May has been terrible and now he’s losing time.  He’ll get some starts and home runs, but he’s a liability for this year because of his average.

Sean Marshall – 5 IP, 2 ER.  Yup, and he gets the ‘Stros next.

Edinson Volquez – 6 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Julio-Reyes-Edison-Edinson Volquez will forever be unpredictable.  If you own him, you just have to accept you’ll never know when he’s going to pitch well.

Cameron Maybin – Demoted after he ran the ‘lins out of a ninth inning rally with a boneheaded mistake.  Oh, and it didn’t help he’s sucked for a month and a half.  Sorry, Maybin, our love affair will continue next February when I publish my sleeper outfielders for 2010.

Chris Coghlan – Didn’t show much this weekend and still showed more than Maybin.

Mariano Rivera – Worked a scoreless save yesterday.  Good thing, because Joba wasn’t available to relieve him. (BTW, how do you spend so much money and not get a bullpen?  George Steinbrenner just rolled over in his scooter.)

Koji Uehara – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  He’s looking a lot more usable than his fellow import, Kawakami.  And his Korean tacos are delicious!

Jim Johnson – Was hit yesterday.  Baez was hit on Saturday.  Tomorrow Sherrill will be hit.  As long as Ray doesn’t pitch, he might be the closer by next weekend.

Joba Chamberlain – 6 IP, 3 ER.  Pattern emerging — tough first inning, then settled down.  Oh, and in honor of yesterday’s Mother’s Day —   Owen doesn’t have a friend!

Top 20 3rd Basemen for 2009 Fantasy Baseball

January 21, 2009 By: Grey Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft 20 Comments →

With these top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, we finish off the twenty lists for the infield.  From weakest to strongest, the top 20s go top 20 catchers, top 20 shortstops, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 third basemen then top 20 1st basemen.  The outfielders will be coming up next, and I’m sure they’ll be deeper than all of these lists, but that’s just by virtue of the sheer number of them.  If you want some overall perspective, look at our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  In addition, there’s a list of every player who has multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. David Wright – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for David Wright’s projections.

1 1/2. Miguel Cabrera – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Evan Longoria’s projections.

3. Aramis Ramirez – Welcome to a new tier.  This tier goes from Aramis to Chipper.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for a rock solid 3rd baseman.”  As for Aramis, he was a bit underwhelming in 2007 to follow that up with more underwhelming shizz in 2008.  That he ranks 4th on the list is more of a condemnation of 3rd basemen than an endorsement of Aramis.  I like him, but only to a certain extent.  2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295

4. Kevin Youkilis – I liked Youuuuuk going into the 2008 season and he didn’t disappoint.  Now, like with Dusty “The American Dream” Pedroia, Youuuuuuk’s getting slightly overrated.  Though Youuuuuk will have a better chance of matching expectations than Pedroia.  Remember I said match, not exceed.  Recognize!  2009 Projections:  95/27/110/.290/5

5. Alex Rodriguez – Drugs bad, A-Rod good, Cyst bad.  Any questions?  2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4

6. Chipper Jones – Sure, the Glass Chipper is never going to make it a full 150 games ever again, but you forget how many guys are available on waivers during the season.  You get Chipper Jones for 120 games then grab a hot waiver pickup for the other 30 games and you end up with a much more productive player than Atkins for 155 games.   2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5

7. Garrett Atkins – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Atkins to Zimmerman.  I call this tier, “Guys with question marks but upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Garrett Atkins’s projections.

8. Chris Davis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Chris Davis’s projections.

9. Jorge Cantu – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Jorge Cantu’s projections.

10. Ryan Zimmerman – If only I liked Martin and Huff more, so I could have dropped Zimmerman even further.  Bummerman!  Someone once asked why I dislike Zimmerman so much, I replied, “Read Razzball!”  To which they said, “Razz what?”  I said, “Ball.”  They said, “Ball what?”  We went on like that for twenty minues.  Honestly, if Zimmerman’s on the board late, I could see myself grabbing him this year, unlike last year when there was no chance I was getting him on any team.  The reason I’m saying there’s a chance this year is because he’s now being severely underrated.  He can still hit 20+ home runs and he’s not that old.  Last year, I hated the wrist surgery.  Now we’re an extra year away from it…  Okay, I’m going to stop now bef0re someone catches me defending Zimmerman.  2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7

10 1/2. Russell Martin – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Martin to Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “Guys with fewer question marks and less upside.”  He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Martin’s projections.

11. Aubrey Huff – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Aubrey Huff’s projections.

12. Adrian Beltre – I had ’04 Beltre.  His 48 home runs.  I got them off waivers.  I knew it would never be that good again. And it won’t.  But he’s actually not putting up awful numbers from year to year.  What, you don’t want 25/10?  Of course you do.  He’s only just turning 30 at the beginning of the 2009 season.  2009 Projections:  80/25/85/.270/10

13. Edwin Encarnacion – Edwin’s one of those guys that I would draft in all leagues.  He’s not going to blow you away with numbers, but he’ll keep you afloat and let other guys carry your team.  In September of 2009, you’ll look at Encarnacion and say nothing good or bad. And that’s the best I can say about him.  2009 Projections:   75/25/90/.285/5

14. Mark Reynolds – Here’s a new tier.  This tier is just Reynolds and Figgins.  I call this tier, “Guys who could potentially kill your team.”  A guy who admittedly doesn’t mind striking out 200 times isn’t usually worth the headache.  But one of these years, Reynolds might hit 40+ home runs and .270 just from having one of those lucky BABIP years.  Later in a draft, if you feel like your team is really weak on power, I’d take a flier on Reynolds.  2009 Projections: 75/31/100/.255/7

15. Chone Figgins – Figgins is exactly the kind of guy I’ve never had on any team.  Why, Grey?  Please explain! Okay, random italcized voice, but lower the eagerness a bit, it’s weird.  Figgins always goes in the mid-rounds and he gives you essentially one category (steals).  This puts way too much pressure on your other guys to bolster Figgins’s power shortage.  Also, if he gives you 35 steals and Emmanuel Burriss (fill-in any speed schmohawk SAGNOF player) at a better position gives you the same ten rounds later, why draft Figgins?  I don’t know, Grey! Why?! That was rhetorical; I just explained why.  2009 Projections:  95/5/55/.295/35

16. Mark DeRosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from DeRosa to Lowell.  This tier I call, “Guys I’d prefer not to have on my team, but if they get hot I’d pick one up.”  See the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Mark DeRosa’s projections.

17. Hank Blalock – Honestly, I had Mike Lowell here then looked at reports of his recovery from hip surgery, looked at his age and decided I’d prefer this schmohawk then Lowell.  But, the thing is, I don’t really want Blalock either.  It was a tough call and in the end Blalock won because I think he’d get injured and I’d be able to drop him, where Lowell would play through injuries and end up costing me much more.  2009 Projections:  55/17/65/.280 in 100 games.

18. Carlos Guillen – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Carlos Guillen’s projections.

18 1/2. Pablo Sandoval – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Sandoval’s projections.  BTW, I like Sandoval, just not so much as my 3rd baseman.

19. Mike Lowell – “Hip surgery on an old doode,” my trepidation says.  2009 Projections:  75/20/85/.275

20. Alex Gordon – Here’s the last tier.  It’s called, “Fliers that could pay dividends.”  I’ve said it many times before, and I’ll say it again.  When you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier on a guy rather than the safe, aging vet.  It’s worth the risk.  As for Gordon, can you believe I’m pushing this schmohawk for another year?  Old habits die hard, ask John Holmes.  I already went over Alex Gordon as a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Listen, I just know know KNOW (Yes, the regular-italicized-caps emphasis.  That’s like the triple dog dare of emphasis.) Alex Gordon’s going to come around.  He’s like that really awkward girl in your eleventh grade gym class that had Doritos in her hair.  You know the one — the one that asked your stupid ass out and you turned down.  Then you ended up going out with Psycho Sally and her crazy-ass ex-boyfriend keyed your ’87 Camaro.  Well, the girl with the Doritos in her hair grows up to be Cindy Crawford.  Don’t you see you’re making the same mistakes in life over and over again?  Geez!  2009 Projections:  85/22/90/.270/10 (<–optimistic, but doable)

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s three that stand out:

Dallas McPherson – I covered him in a 2009 fantasy sleeper post.  Search the site!  2009 Projections:  60/20/80/.245/5

Kevin Kouzmanoff – No, he didn’t explode on the scene like some (me!) would’ve hoped, but he’s still young and… Well, he plays in Petco and I don’t think Ryan Howard could hit 40 home runs in that park so keep expectations in check.  2009 Projections:  75/25/95/.270

Troy Glaus – Don’t even bother drafting him.   Anyone who decides to have shoulder surgery in January isn’t worth the ulcer.   2009 Projections:  Old/Doode/Injured/Shoulder