Fantasy Baseball Advice

There’s only two types of years for AJ Burnett.  He’s either playing hard because it’s a contract year or he’s hardly playing because he contracted an injury.  Unless the Yanks are willing to give him a new contract every year to add to this one (which is definitely possible with the Yank$), our guess is that this will be a lot closer to a Pavano redux than a Mussina repeat.  For now, Burnett becomes the Yankees number two pitcher, though Wang might have a thang to say about that. Or maybe Joba will be considered the number two by the end of 2009.  So what say I about Burnett for 2009 fantasy baseball?

Burnett’s fairly unpredictable and now that he has a contract it’s almost guaranteed that he’s not going to be as productive in 2009 as he was 2008.  He’ll probably go in 2009 fantasy drafts sometime in the second fantasy pitching tier (think Dice-K, Haren, Shields), though he’s more likely to give you value of the third or fourth tier with all his injuries, i.e. Burnett’s overrated. But, and this is J. Lo-sized but, if he can make it through 2009 healthy, Burnett could give you 18 to 20 wins, a mid-3 ERA and 200+ Ks. In 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, this is the kind of guy I would grab if my pitching were already stacked. Let me explain, you’re in a keeper league and you already have Johan and Halladay. Here, you grab Burnett because if he flames out in 2009 — no big whoop, you’re already set with a solid one and two starter.  In all other cases where AJ’s drafted like he probably will be in 2009, I’d let someone else take a chance on The AJ Burnett Variety of Injuries Show.

Harnessing the pitching brilliance of Native Americans and intergalactic tubbies, Joba Chamberlain appeared to be the savior the Yankee fans, Girardi and Hankenstein needed for their pitching staff. So it was a terrific blow when Joba Chamberlain left yesterday’s game rubbing his shoulder. The only thing worse would be if Joba hurt it in a fight with The Drunken Ghost of Billy Martin. (Fortunately, he’s in a cloud lined with sawdust, boozing it up with Mickey Mantle.) Fantasy baseball owners can’t be thrilled either. Pitcher leaves game rubbing shoulder? Fantasy baseball owner leaves seat walking funny. It’s too bad they can’t trade for Jar Jar on the Braves. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Cliff Lee – I figured since I hadn’t watched him in over two months, it was time to jinx him. I was so close in the 2nd when I got him to walk a few and load the bases. Alas, he pitched well in every other inning. Never fear, non-Cliff Lee owners, I will grab him like some friggin’ floating astronaut and drag him back to earth.

C.J. Wilson – Wilson says he’s feeling fatigued, maybe he got mono from a Kotchman open-mouth kiss. Either way, Eddie Guardado should be owned in all leagues because he would step in if C.J. pulls a Prince Valium.

Jason Bartlett – Won’t be able to throw a baseball for a few days, maybe Kotchman kissed his hand.

Kerry Wood – Word out of Wrigleyville is Wood can close again, but he’s going to get a bit of work in the middle innings then move into the closing role by the end of the week.

Gil Meche – Everyone mocked KC for signing him to that ridiculous contract but who’s dancing now.  That’s right.  Good ol’ Gil.  9 Ks in a 6 IP win against the Sox.  10-9 for an awful team – including 9-5 with a 3.27 ERA since May.

Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman says he should be able to avoid the DL with his bruised hand, so he can just clog up your bench instead.

Eric Chavez – Shut down for the year.  Maybe they could build a healthy 3B out of the spare parts of Chavez and Blalock?  Those A’s don’t have a long shelf life, do they?  Mulder, Hudson, Chavez, Byrnes… Who’d have thought Harden and Giambi would be the poster children of durability?

Jay Bruce – 3 HRs in 4 games.  That’s the Bruce we know and love.  He obviously idolized Griffey Jr. and was emulating the current version.  Now that he’s out of Cincy, he’s back to emulating the 90’s version.

Bronson Arroyo – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  This on the heels of Zito besting Peavy yesterday.  Guess it’s premature for both to retire and start a rock trio with Slow Hand Pete called Baked Zito and the Republic of Bro-Yo, featuring Slow Hand Pete.

Roy Halladay – 8 IP, 1 ER. Queue the projector.  It’s time for another installment of Out of Contention Run For Cy Young in Toronto. (see Clemens, Hentgen, Halladay…)

Tyler Yates – Third of an inning, 5 ER. This works out to a 135 ERA, 15 WHIP and 1 less closer on all of my teams.

Manny Parra/Prince Fielder – Hit hard by the Reds, hit harder by Fielder in the dugout. I haven’t seen anything this lopsided since Andre took on this guy. “Stop talking about meat and I mean it!”

Luckily someone transcribed Eric Karabell’s crayon drawings into a blog post so we can see which players Karabaloney is thinking are overrated this year. As Common said, “It doesn’t take a whole day to recognize sunshine…” Well, it also doesn’t take a mouthful to recognize shit either. The following is only a sampling of Eric Karabell’s crap. Seriously, try and wrap your head around these puppies.

Roy Halladay – The ESPN ‘perts ranked him at 67. The rest of the free world ranks him at 99. You can’t say someone is overrated when you are the one overrating him?! Inconceivable! This would be like me saying Alex Gordon’s overrated after rating him sixty spots higher than everyone south of Canada and north of Mexico. Halladay may be good value at 99 because other than Ks, he has a proven track record of Wins, ERA, WHIP and injuries. He’s not in my top hundred for a reason.

Placido Polanco – The ESPN ‘perts ranked him 133. Everyone else ranked him at 163. This is akin to me saying I’m an overrated lay, even though I’m the only saying I’m good in bed. Polanco will guarantee you 90/7/65/.310/7 and a fifth place finish in your league. Try harder!

Travis Hafner – The World says 42. ESPN says 37. I said 34, and I thought I was overrating him. Hafner’s one of my risky picks because of his injury history and his position eligibility. I could understand if you passed him by, but to say he’s overrated… Ugh.

Bobby Abreu – Check out this Karabell turd nugget, “I bet most people who draft him think he can still be a 30/30 player. I do not.” Seriously, is it me or is Karabell The Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer? Abreu hasn’t come close to 30 homers in a while; does anyone actually believe they are getting a 30/30 guy? My projections were 120/15/110/.310/20. Sure doesn’t look like 30/30. Abreu hasn’t hit 30 homers since ’04 and has only recorded two 30 homer seasons in his career. Who’s expecting 30/30 at the age of 34? Seriously. crickets

What have we learned from this exercise? ESPN overrates players then dispatches their experts to tell us to be careful they’re overrated. Do yourself a favor and ignore ESPN. They will hurt you. And they’re owned by Disney. Do you need other reasons?