Fantasy Baseball Advice

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America

2012 (11) | 2011 (3) | 2010 (1) | 2009 (4) | 2008 (1) | 2007 (1)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [91-71] AL East

AAA: [80-62] International League – Durham

AA: [65-74] Southern League – Montgomery

A+: [64-75] Florida State League – Charlotte

A: [77-63] Midwest League – Bowling Green

A(ss): [37-39] New York-Penn League – Hudson Valley

The Run Down

It’s no secret that the Rays’ player development systems are tremendous.  And when reviewing these Rays prospects, it’s important to keep that in mind.  They’re so adept at churning out major league talent that it’s hard to imagine even the fringy guys not panning out.  It’s also no secret that Matt Moore is for real.  Of all the prospects arriving this year, I’m comfortable saying his impact will be the most profound – perhaps by a wide margin.  He makes everyone else in this post look kinda boring, but I assure you there are other bright spots in this Tampa Bay system.  As there will be next year, and the next year, and th… You get the idea.

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Saguros

Shane Dyer (RHP); Marquis Fleming (RHP); Adam Liberatore (LHP); Tim Beckham (3B); Tyler Bortnick (2B); Mikie Mahtook (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Jeremy Hellickson (RHP); Desmond Jennings (OF); Jake McGee (LHP); Alex Cobb (RHP)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Brandon Guyer | OF:

At 26-years-old, Guyer has little left to prove in the minors.  48 XBH (14 homers) in 443 trips to the plate with Durham reflects his readiness.  Guyer has the tools and makeup of a regular in the bigs.  It’s only a matter of time, now, ’til his opportunity arrives.

Tim Beckham | SS:

Beckham was the #1 overall selection in the 2008 draft, but he’s been a disappointment thus far.  Despite his struggles, he has been able to push his way through to Triple-A and 2011 was his best professional year to-date – still not great, though:  .271/.328/.408.  At 22-years-old, I suppose there’s still time for him to come around.  I find it unlikely, however, that he’ll ever be much more than a bench player in the majors.  Beckham will open 2012 back in Durham.

Pitchers

Matt Moore | RHP – SP:

Moore ranks as my top prospect for 2012 and you can read that post here.  Just yesterday, I happily overpaid for him in an auction for a weekly H2H.  His RP eligibility allows me to free up an extra SP slot – one which I’ll exploit with 2-start pickups off the wire.  I hate closers, anyway.

Alex Torres | LHP – SP:

Torres has already pitched some high-leverage innings with the Rays late last season and he’s ready to return to big league action for 2012.  Unfortunately, though, Tampa’s rotation is too crowded to accommodate.  Torres will open 2012 in Triple-A, instead.  A filthy fastball-changeup combo helped him lead the International League in strikeouts last season.  He’d likely be the first option if the big club has a need.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Hak-Ju Lee | SS:

I recently ranked Lee at #25 in my Top 25 Prospects for 2013 & Beyond post.  His defense is major league-ready now, and I’m confident his bat will be ready by 2013. The Rays could use help at short, so don’t expect them to be overly patient with Lee.

Mikie Mahtook | OF:

Mahtook, a first-round selection in last June’s draft, signed late and made his pro debut – an impressive one – in the Arizona Fall League.  The LSU product is advanced enough to start 2012 in High-A and he should move quickly from there.  Still, don’t expect to see him in Tampa ’til 2014.

Pitchers

Chris Archer | RHP – SP:

Archer will open 2012 with Durham and he’s widely thought to be arriving in Tampa at some point this year.  I’m a little more skeptical.  Stuff-wise, he’s certainly capable of blossoming into a frontend starter, but control issues are holding him back.  He needs to develop an improved feel for his delivery if he’s to succeed in the majors and he hasn’t shown enough in that regard for me to believe that he will.  Dangerous guy if he gets it together, though.

Alex Colome | RHP – SP:

Colome delivers an effortless mid-90′s sinker and counters with a nice change and a work-in-progress slider.  Like Archer, he can be wild at times, but the Rays are confident he’ll develop into a quality mid-rotation starter.  I believe them.  A 2013 arrival seems likely.

I spend most of my time here focusing on prospects who’re nearing their big league debuts.  Today, though, I’m gonna be discussing some guys a little further out.  In these rankings, talent trumps all – although, I broke that rule a few times based on lack of experience (see Bundy, Sano, Starling).  Among all of these names, though, one fact is constant:  each has an enormous ceiling.  All of these guys have the potential to develop into tremendous fantasy assets.  Unless you’re drafting in a dynasty league, however, these are not players you want to be considering on draft day.  For the top 25 fantasy baseball prospects for right now, click that link.

1. Jurickson Profar | SS, Rangers:  Profar has already put up some exciting numbers, and scouts are drooling over his physical development this offseason.  The upside here is preposterously high.  More on Profar in my Rangers post.  ETA:  2013.

2. Manny Machado | SS, Orioles:  The slugging shortstop has drawn comparisons to a young A-Rod.  The arrival of Machado and Profar will certainly aid the shortstop scarcity currently plaguing fantasy baseball.  ETA:  2013.

3. Gerrit Cole | SP, Pirates:  Cole was the #1 overall pick last June and made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League, where he was clocked as high as 102 MPH.  He’ll start at High-A this year, but should move quickly. ETA:  2013.

4. Jameson Taillon | SP, Pirates:  Although he’s a year ahead of Cole in terms of experience, Taillon is behind his teammate developmentally.  Legitimate ace potential here.  The future is bright for the Pittsburgh rotation. ETA:  2014.

5. Travis D’Arnaud | C, Blue Jays:  Projects better than Arencibia both offensively and defensively, so it’s only a matter of time ’til D’Arnaud takes over as Toronto’s regular behind the plate.  He should be up late this season and ready for full-time in 2013.   ETA:  Late 2012.

6. Anthony Rendon | 3B, Nationals:  Rendon is a polished hitter and he could be ready for the bigs by late-season.  With Ryan Zimmerman at third for the foreseeable future, Rendon might have to arrive as a 2B.  More on Rendon in my Nationals post.  ETA:  2013.

7. Nolan Arenado | 3B, Rockies:  Arenado doesn’t impress scouts quite so much as Rendon, but he’s an impressive all-around talent and the Rockies have no one blocking him at third.  He’ll start 2012 at Double-A and try to push his way through to the big club this year.  More on Arenado, here.  ETA:  Late 2012.

8. Dylan Bundy | SP, Orioles:  An ace in the making, Bundy is looking forward to his first taste of pro ball in 2012.  He should move quickly.  Could rank higher if he backs up the hype with on-field production.  ETA:  2014.

9. Taijuan Walker | SP, Mariners:  Ace potential is even more attractive when you factor the Safeco effect.   ETA: 2014.

10. Mike Montgomery | SP, Royals:  Montgomery has a chance to gain some big league time this year if the Royals’ staff is injured and/or terrible.  More likely, Kansas City remains patient with their prized prospect and he makes his impact in 2013.  ETA:  Late 2012.

11. Miguel Sano | SS, Twins:  Sano will get his first taste of full-season baseball in the Midwest League this year.  That means he’ll make a few visits to Kane County, which isn’t too far from me.  Can’t wait to watch him live.  ETA:  2015.

12. Bubba Starling | OF, Royals:  The fifth overall selection last June, Starling is oozing with talent.  He could be playing full-time at Kane County this year.  OH HELL YEAH – when can I pre-order Beloit at Kane County tix?   ETA:  2015.

13. Carlos Martinez | SP, Cardinals:  Command seems to be the only thing holding Martinez back at this point.  He’ll return to the Florida State League to begin 2012 in order to refine that aspect of his game.  Once he can work that out, he’ll push through quickly.  ETA:  2013.

14. Archie Bradley | SP, Diamondbacks:  Bradley joins Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs as three potential aces in the D’Backs system.  He’ll need quite a bit more time than the other two, however.  ETA:  2015.

15. Wil Myers | OF, Royals:  In terms of pure talent, Myers falls a bit short of Starling.  At this point, though, he’s far closer to the bigs.  Long shot to arrive late this year. ETA:  2013.

16. Manny Banuelos | SP, Yankees:  Banuelos is probably ready now, but the Yankees have nowhere for him.  Based on readiness, he’s a good candidate for a late-seasn arrival.  More on Banuelos, in my Yankees prospect review.  ETA:  Late 2012.

17. Jonathan Singleton | 1B/OF, Astros:  Singleton joined the Houston system by way of Philadelphia in the Hunter Pence swap.  He put up some outstanding post-trade figures in the California League.  A beacon of hope for Astros fans.  More on him, here. ETA:  2013.

18. Christian Yelich | OF, Marlins:  Yelich projects above average in hitting, power and speed.  Defensively, he’s just average, though.  Good thing we don’t care about defense.  ETA:  2013.

19. Mike Olt | 3B, Rangers:  He could very well be ready by the second half of 2012, but the opportunity in Texas won’t exist while Beltre is entrenched at third.  Could be trade-bait.  More on Olt, here.  ETA:  2013.

20. Martin Perez | SP, Rangers:  Three plus offerings has Perez looking like a frontline starter if he can get his command in order.  Read more on him in my Rangers post. ETA:  2013.

21. Zack Wheeler | SP, Mets:  Wheeler profiles best as a #2 starter, but he could develop into an ace if he can transform his curveball into a plus offering – his fastball and changeup are already there.  Wheeler could reach Triple-A this year.  ETA:  2013.

22. Francisco Lindor | SS, Indians:  Yet another huge upside talent who’ll be playing in the Midwest League this year.  The Cleveland system is horrendous, but Lindor provides some reason for hope.  ETA:  2015.

23. Gary Brown | OF, Giants:  Brown will begin 2012 trying to prove he can put up big numbers outside the hitter-friendly California League.  But his speed and defense will play in the bigs, regardless.  Read more on Brown in my Giants post.  ETA:  2013.

24. Anthony Gose | OF, Blue Jays:  Extremely toolsy centerfielder swiped 70 bags at Double-A.  Gose will work on refining his approach at the plate in Triple-A this year.  He could push Colby Rasmus out of center in 2013.  ETA:  2013.

25. Hak-Ju Lee | SS, Rays:  Lee, for now, is a defensive-minded shortstop, but he has all of the tools to develop into an exciting offensive player.  Shortstop is a weakness at the top of the Rays’ organization, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Lee up at some point next year.  ETA:  2013.

Ten more, in alphabetical order:  Xander Bogaerts (SS, Red Sox); Nick Castellanos (3B, Tigers); Jarred Cosart (SP, Astros); Yasmani Grandal (C, Padres); Billy Hamilton (SS, Reds); Zach Lee (SP, Dodgers); Rymer Liriano (OF, Padres); Wily Peralta (SP, Brewers); Oscar Taveras (OF, Cardinals); Kolten Wong (2B, Cardinals)

Tampa Bay Rays 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (1) | 2009 (4) | 2008 (1) | 2007 (1) | 2006 (10) | 2005 (9) | 2004 (9)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [84 – 78] AL East
AAA: [88 – 55] International League – Durham
AA: [72 – 65] Southern League – Montgomery
A+: [80 – 59] Florida League – Charlotte
A: [61 – 78] Midwest League – Bowling Green
A(ss): [39 – 36] New York – Pennsylvania – Hudson Valley

The Run Down
The Rays have enough young, good pitchers that they can just pull one out for a spot start with mild success like Alex Cobb. Then they have everyone’s favorite young pitcher in Jeremy Hellickson making the opening day rotation. Jake McGee struggled but has the skills and pitches to eventually be a major league regular. Elliot Johnson looks overmatched at times, but has provided serviceable defense and at-bats. The one prospect they are missing is the can’t miss hitter. Desmond Jennings has tremendous upside, and given the opportunity, could be a solid major league contributor today (assuming you buffer and accept some rookie slumps). However, beyond Jennings, the next rated hitting prospect (#5 (OF) Josh Sale) hasn’t played in the minors and then (#8 (C) Justin O’Conner) has just played in rookie league. The sustained excellence of the Rays minor league system has been in their pitching prospects. They may have to start trading some of their pitching prospects too for a hitter, especially since there are only so many rotation and bullpen spots for some of the high-ceiling arms. Here’s a look at some prospects for the 2011 season and beyond.

Graduated Prospects
#3 (LHP) Wade Davis; #5 (SS) Reid Brignac; (C) John Jaso;

Players of Interest
* All player rankings are from Baseball America Handbook 2011
Hitters
#3 Desmond Jennings | CF: A household name by now, with comparisons to Carl Crawford. The one concern throughout his career are injuries. However, in 2010 he had a slash line of .278/.362/.393 in 458 at-bats to go along with 34 XBH (3 Hr), 37 steals in 41 attempts and a 67:47 K:BB Ratio at Triple-A. Currently, he’s back at Triple-A waiting for an opening.

Pitchers
#16 Alex Cobb | RHP: Although his major league debut wasn’t anything spectacular, Cobb has pitched well at Triple-A this year. He’s currently sporting a 11.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 22 Triple-A innings. This was after posting a 9.6 K/9, a 2.6 BB/9 in 119 2/3 IP with middling control (1.30 WHIP) at Double-A. He throws a low 90s fastball with sinking action, an above-average changeup, a curveball that is better than his slider. Baseball America believe his future is as a set-up man or a number four of five starter.

#2 Matt Moore | LHP: I fell in love with Hellickson in 2007, I’m in love all over again with Moore. He throws a 92 to 96 MPH fastball, an excellent curveball and an above-average changeup that could become a plus-plus pitch. His strikeouts (12.9 K/9) and control (3.8 BB/9) remind me of Clayton Kershaw. With 144 2/3 innings last year at High-A, when he is called up, there shouldn’t be much holding back. He’s currently at Double-A with with the following rates: 11.8 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 in 24 1/3 innings. It’s early, but Moore will be a force.

#6 Alex Torres | LHP:Throws a 88 to 91 fastball with tremendous amounts of movement, a tight slider, and a biting curve. His control is lacking due to a couple of reasons. One, his arm slot is inconsistent, and two, the movement of his pitches are extraordinary. Last year, he posted a good strikeout rate (9.5 K/9) with questionable control (4.4 BB/9) in 142 2/3 innings at Double-A. He’s currently at Triple-A struggling with his control. Long-term he’s a number two or three starter if reaching ceiling. Otherwise, he could be a solid set-up man.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#15 Tim Beckham | SS/3B: Has been derailed by a wrist injury and hasn’t lived up to expectations. Still has a high ceiling with his plus bat speed and quick wrists. Will need to lay off the high fastball and play better defense. He has a good hitting approach and at just 21 (D.o.B: 1-27-90), not sure why he’s starting to be written off. His slash line last year wasn’t pretty (.256/.346/.359 in 465 AB), though he did have 22 steals in 36 attempts and a 119:62 K:BB ratio at High-A. He’s currently trying to improve upon those numbers at Double-A with mild success.

#4 (CHC) Hak-Ju Lee | SS: Received in the Matt Garza trade, Lee has plus-plus speed and a good hitting approach. Still needs to physically develop and scouts believe his swing will produce average power (10 to 15 home runs). Last year he slashed .282/.354/.351 in 485 at-bats with 27 XBH (1 Hr), 32 steals in 39 attempts with a 86:49 K:BB ratio at Single-A. Currently at High-A. Could be another Starlin Castro.

Pitchers
#1 (CHC) Chris Archer | RHP: Also received in the Matt Garza trade, Archer throws a 92 to 95 MPH fastball (has topped 97 MPH) with a mid 80s slider. Both are plus-plus pitches. Struggles with control (4.1 BB/9 last year), but has great strikeout potential (9.4 K/9 last year). He threw 142 1/3 innings last year at High-A and Double-A. Currently throwing at Double-A again to start this year.

#7 Alexander Colome | RHP: Has 91 to 93 MPH fastball that tops at 96 MPH. His curveball has the potential to be a plus-pitcher and his changeup has become more consistent. His 9.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 114 innings at Single-A last year were impressive. Currently, he’s struggling to have solid traditional stats at High-A but still is keeping similar ratios at High-A. His ceiling is a number three starter.

#20 Zach Quate | RHP: Quate is a minor league closer that throws a 90-91 MPH fastball and a slider that is deceptive due to having the same arm slot as his fastball. He had a 11.2 K/9 last year with good control (2.2 BB/9) at High-A. Currently, he’s not having the same kind of success at Double-A with a 5.5 K/9 rate, but still has impeccable control (.7 BB/9) in 13 innings (10 Appearances, 4 saves) and a 1.00 WHIP. Quate is nothing more than a bullpen arm.

Chicago Cubs 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (27) | 2008 (20) | 2007 (18) | 2006 (15) | 2005 (10) | 2004 (7)

Record of Major League Team and Affiliates
Majors: 83 – 78 (NL Central)
AAA: 72 – 72 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 71 – 69 (Southern League)
A+: 64 – 71 (Florida State League)
A: 81 – 57 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 34 – 52 (Northwest League)
R: 29 – 27 (Arizona League)

The Run Down
Two really interesting factoids from Baseball America’s preview on the 2009 Cubs, factoid number 1 – “Chicago hasn’t gotten long-term production out of a first-round pick since Kerry Wood in 1995; factoid number 2 – other than Geovany Soto, who as drafted in round 11 in 2001, they “haven’t developed a position player it signed into an All-Star since they drafted Joe Girardi in 1986.” With a couple of trades this past year (Sean Gallagher and catcher Josh Donaldson for Rich Harden; Jose Ceda (#4 ranked prospect) for Kevin Gregg) the Cubs traded away a third of their top ten prospects. Through trades in the recent past, Chicago has built a contender each year at the expense of their farm system.

After another disappointing season on the north side, the Cubs have several pressing issues about their team. Milton Bradley was a flop, Rich Harden is a free agent, Alfonso Soriano got old really fast, and second base was a tale of two halves. Bradley looks like he on his way out of town, Harden may be too costly to keep around, Soriano is on the tail end of his career, and there are few solid options from within to replace the outfield spot of Bradley let alone another injury ravaged season of Soriano. On a positive note, Derrek Lee was his old self hitting 35 homers and .306/.394/.579, Randy Wells came out of nowhere to have an extraordinarily great rookie year, and Ryan Theriot provided good defense and sufficient offense from the shortstop position.

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Andrew Cashner, John Gaub, Blake Parker, James Russell – All SP
Welington Castilo (C) ,Starlin Castro (SS), Josh Vitters (3B)

Players of Interest
*A number prior to a player’s name indicates Baseball America’s 2009 prospect Ranking

#1 – Josh Vitters | 3B | A/A+ | 19 | totals – .284/.314/.456 | 458 AB | 18 HR | .172 ISO | 65:12 K:BB
If you’ve been reading Razzball all summer, you would have saw here that I wasn’t sold on Vitters being a stud major league hitter in his career. This isn’t to start a debate, but a harsh analysis on Vitters may not be terrible. Each prospect has their pros and cons. I will look at Vitters again next summer and see where he is at. His overall total numbers look pretty good, but he struggled at High-A this year. Look at his slash line at each level:

A – .316/.351/.535 in 269 AB
A+ – .238/.260/.344 in 189 AB

Not what you want your hitter doing upon a promotion; granted his BABIP at Single-A was .330 and at High-A was .258 indicating he was having some “bad-luck.” He is only 19, is a level-or-so above his age, but his walk ratio will start to become a larger red flag as he progresses through the minors unless he can change his walking ways. He still is one of the best young hitting prospects in the entire majors, so patience may be a HUGE key (and for me, as well).

Kyler Burke | OF | A | 21 | .303/.405/.505 | 465 AB | 43 2B | 15 HR | .202 ISO | 99:78 K:BB
2009 was a career year for Burke. He cut his strikeout rate by a third and increased his walk-rate from 7.7% to 14.4% since 2008. With an aging outfield in Chicago, he may be a bright spot if he can reproduce these numbers at higher levels. Take this all with a grain of salt, this year was his first full year at Single-A, but he has had half seasons there in the past two seasons.

#10 – Hak-Ju Lee | SS | A(ss) | 18 | .330/.399/.420 | 264 AB | .090 ISO | 25/8 SB/CS | 50:31 K:BB | .401 BABIP
Chicago’s big international signing out of Korea did pretty well for his first year in America. He looks to be a light hitting, defensive shortstop with some speed. Keep in mind he had an extremely high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Being so young, his ceiling is still sky high. Look for him to play at Single-A in 2010 and ideally progress to Double-A by the end of ’10.

#7 – Starlin Castro | SS | A+/AA | 19 | totals – .299/.432/.392 | 429 AB | .093 ISO | 28/11 SB/CS | 53:29 K:BB
Another prized shortstop in the Cubs organization put things together this year.  The upper brass is really hoping that Theriot can keep the spot warm for Castro. He has more speed than his steals would even lead one to believe as he is still learning the stealing craft. Playing predominately at Single-A, his late season promotion to Double-A proved that he could handle the higher competition. Look for him to start at Double-A in 2010, even if he performs above expectations at Arizona this fall.

#3 – Andrew Cashner | SP (RHP) | A+/AA | 22 | totals – 6.7 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 100 1/3 IP | 2.60 ERA | 1.18 WHIP
Once he was promoted to Double-A his stats started to fall. Both his strikeouts and walks took large hits at Double-A. One positive is he only gave up one homer all season. His ranking should take a hit as he didn’t produce like a top prospect. If he has a strong Fall League performance, he may be nearing a mid-season look or September call up in 2010. Look for him to start in Double-A.

#9 – Jay Jackson | SP (RHP) | A+/AA/AAA| 22 | totals – 9 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 127 IP | 2.98 ERA | 1.22 WHIP
His level spread is a bit deceiving as he only started and pitched in one game at Triple-A. Once he started pitching in Double-AA his walk rate went from .8 BB/9 in 36 1/3 innings at High-A to 4.2 BB/9 in 82 2/3 innings at Double-A. His dominance in High-A is truly what makes his stats look really impressive. He might start 2010 in Double-A, waiting for the warmer weather of the Pacific Coast games, or could start in Triple-A.  Either way, he should be given the chance to play in the majors next summer.

Jeff Antigua | SP (LHP) | A(ss)/A | 19 | totals – 8.9 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 68 2/3 IP | 3.01 ERA | .99 WHIP
A little under the radar, Antigua pitched brilliantly aside from his seven home runs he gave up. Being left-handed will increase his stock greatly as the Cubs don’t have many top left-handed prospects. He’ll probably start again in Single-A with a mid-season promotion to Double-A.

Honorable Mentions
Brett Jackson | OF | R/A(ss)/A | 20
Drafted number 31 in the 2009 draft. Hit seven of his eight homers, 11 of his 13 stolen bases, and five of his six doubles at Single-A.

Rebel Ridling | 1B | A | 23
As both ranked first basemen above him in the Cubs organization have graduated, look for Ridling to be a prospect rated in the low twenties for 2010. He finally produced in his second year at Single-A. He cut his strikeouts by nearly half, almost doubled his walk rate (not hard when you start so low), yet he still has a long ways to be more than organizational depth.

#16 – Tyler Colvin | OF | A+/AA | 23
Actually got promoted in September with three hits in 17 at-bats.

#8 – Ryan Flaherty | 3B/2B | A | 22
Hit 20 homers in 485 at-bats while producing an above average slash line of .276/.344/.470 and a decent K:BB of 98:50.

#18 – Chris Carpenter | SP (RHP) | A/A+/AA | 23
Finally moved up a few levels to match his talent and age. Still performed below expectations at each level besides Single-A, while pitching the best overall at High-A