Fantasy Baseball Advice

It has not been a good year for the Joneses. Jacques Jones is headed for retirement, Marion Jones went to jail and Ed “Too Tall” Jones banged his head on a doorway. And none of them will even acknowledge their brother from a white mother, Todd Jones, who was offcially replaced as closer on Sunday. I know what you’re saying, “But Todd Jones had just under a 3 K/9 ratio! Life’s unfair!” Yup, it sure is for everyone but Fernando Rodney, who Leyland announced would take over the Tiger’s closer job. (Leyland also announced he’s returning to filtered cigarettes now that Jones is gone.) Do I think it will last with Rodney? Sure, unless the Tigers trade for Fuentes or Street. Fuentes has closing experience, but Rodney can be just as dominant. Street has experience, and is just as injury prone as Rodney. So six of one, half dozen of another. Also, Zumaya is not without his issues as he had right triceps tightness and had to leave Sunday’s game. As for Todd Jones, drop him. He was useless when he had the job. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

John Grabow – Gave up 2 home runs yesterday. I still think he’s first in line for saves, but he could be traded too (or just not covert any saves or just not get any saves to convert). You might need to look at Tyler Yates and Denny Bautista, as well. Honestly, I grabbed Grabow and that’s as deep as I’m going for Pirates saves. These other schmohawks are not being picked up by me, except in the deepest of leagues where I really need saves.

Brian McCann – Out with a mild concussion from The Flying Hawaiian going all Tonga Kid on McCann and giving him a flying headbutt.

Shane Victorino – HR yesterday. Now has 8 HRs (Alexis Rios has 8 HRs, as well).

Billy Butler – Doesn’t he sound like a character from Clue? It was Billy Butler with the candlestick in the library. Anyway, since the All-Star break, Butler has 4 HRs, 14 RBIs and 2 moobs.

Jack Cust – HR yesterday. Will now hit three HRs this week, walk seven times and strikeout ten times. Hot week ahead!

Eric Chavez – He says he could be done as a third basemen. He could’ve said this in 2006.

Manny Ramirez – Says he’ll accept a trade out of Boston. They should trade him to the Nationals and then see how quickly he accepts. Honestly, I couldn’t believe the amount of people falling for Manny’s shizz back in March when everyone was saying Manny’s going to have a career year because of a contract. In December of 2007, I said Manny’s done trying. He’s been done. It’s fine. I just wish people would stop falling for the same nonsense.  Now I know it’s against a high-ranking baseball commandment to say anything against Gammons, but he was even reporting about Manny’s off-season conditioning. Listen, Manny’s off-season conditioning involves Xbox, Chuck E. Cheese and Mama’s Family DVDs.

Nomar Garciaparra – Left the game with knee irritation. After the game, Nomar said he might have injured his knee the previous night when he forgot the safety word with Mia.

Mike Jacobs/Derrek Lee – 22 HRs/60 RBIs and 17 HRs/63 RBIs, respectively. Granted, Lee (Buffalo) is not the negative on average like Jacobs, but Lee is only batting .296. Cust kayin’.

Scott Hairston – 17th HR yesterday. Later this week his bro, Jerry, returns. The brother battle between the Hairstons and the Uptons is almost as lopsided as The Von Erichs and The Bushwackers.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Besides having one of the best first names in baseball, he also put together a solid July. Last year, he had a solid July then got progressively worse as the year went on. Caveat emptor, for those in Latin America.

Johan Santana – 7th career complete game. CC Sabathia almost had 7 complete games in July.

Hank Blalock – 2-for-3 and he’s going back to Texas. If he can stay healthy (Yes, that’s a big if. BTW, how come people don’t say it’s a small if something is very probable? Like, “I guess we’ll get donuts if Dunkin’ Donuts, a store that never closes, is open. Yes, that’s a small if.”), Blalock could be in for a big week.

Jeff Samardzija – Got the save yesterday after Marmol threw 1 2/3 innings on Saturday. I suppose he could get more saves if Wood continues to have blister problems, but I think Marmol will out-save him 4 to 1 and if Wood’s out-saving Marmol… Well, you get my drift.

Clayton Kershaw – Got his first major league win. The only thing is, I would start just about anyone at Dodgers Stadium against the Nats.

Marcus Thames – Got one hit yesterday. Guess what it was? Okay, so you platoon Thames and Joyce just like Leyland is doing. They’ll probably hit 45 HRs combined. What, you don’t want 45 HRs?

Javier Vazquez – Was roughed up again on Sunday. It’s of little consolation to his owners (which I’m not, suckas!), but Vazquez’s K rate is fine and his BABIP is at .335, which means he’s been unlucky — sorta like his owners, which I’m not, suckas!

Kyle Lohse – Drop the H.

Brad Ziegler – Set major league rookie record with 27 scoreless innings to start a career. Interesting factoid, he hasn’t given up a home run since he switched to pitching sidearm, 128 1/3 innings ago. Uninteresting factoid, his Mom’s name is Beth.

I can picture Tim Kurkjian’s voice cracking, Is this a Great Game, or What?!. Joe Morgan won’t be invited. Bill James will throw out the first pitch. A nickname like Baseball Crank will be worn as a badge of honor. Someone will argue that Pat Burrell isn’t really that bad of a baseball player and make a perfectly logical argument. Everyone will be wearing a lazy frown yet be completely happy. So why does Santana start the All-Star Game in our world instead of in The Real World where he wasn’t even invited? (Not The Real World: Hollywood, which lost two key members of its cast, and now sputters towards a reunion.) Quality Starts this year: Haren, Hudson and Lincecum are tied for first with 15. Santana (it’s safe to say Santana would’ve got another QS last night if not for rain) is #2 with 14. Webb and Volquez win the bronze with 13. Yet, Haren and Santana are tied for 15th in wins with 8. Listen to some with 10 wins — Lohse, Nolasco, Cook, Padilla, Floyd (not Bannister) and, of course, Andy Sonnanstine. Okay, but what does this have to do with fantasy baseball? Everything, you schmohawk! If any potential trade partner thinks any of those guys gets to twenty wins, then you politely agree and rob them blind. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dustin McGowan – Placed on the McDL. I’d look McElsewhere. He’ll be an interesting sleeper (as they say in the biz, whatever biz this is) next spring.

Scott Linebrink – It was annonced he would fill-in for closer. So, of course, Dotel got the save. Yeah, that works. Thanks. If I was looking for a few saves, Dotel would now be the man I’d target.

Ryan Spilborghs – To the DL with an oblique strain. Doctor, I have an oblique problem. Well, Ryan, why don’t you just be more specific? Oofa!

Derek Lowe – Almost pitched a perfect game. Sounds like Alyssa Milano’s giving herpes to someone tonight.

Scott Hairston – HR yesterday. Guess how many he has. Go ahead. I’ll wait. Wrong! 14. You ready for a double dose of brain freeze? You would’ve got better production if you drafted the Hairstons instead of the Uptons. Ow, my temples hurt! Wait, here comes the knuckler — ESPN: The Magazine should’ve featured the Hairston brothers on their baseball issue instead of the Uptons. Stop, Grey, my eyes are bleeding from these sentences that make no sense!

Moises Alou – Still battling nicks and crannies. Probably has something to do with him being 84-years-old and older than his father.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!

Jonathan Sanchez – Got a tough break when the rain came and forced his start to get cut short. He could’ve went another two innings. Or not! What am I, psychic?

Carlos Quentin – 2 HRs. I see no reason why he can’t hit 5 home runs a month from now until the end of the year aka 35 HRs total also also known as 14 more HRs.

Garrett Atkins – 2 HRs. Now has 14 on the year, I say he ends with 27. That’s less than most think, making him a Buy Low of Moderate Proportions.

Mark Mulder – In the forums, Peter had this to say, “Mulder recorded one out in the top of the 1st, walked 2, then left the game with an injury…. On the bright side, neither of the runners scored… so it is arguably Mulder’s most effective start since May 17, 2006.” It’s funny, because it’s true.

Josh Hamilton – He gets high on K-Rod’s supply.

Juan Rivera – Hit his third home run and this is officially the last time I will mention him. Some other guys I officially stopped talking about this season are Carlos Quentin, Josh Hamilton, Dioner Navarro, Shane Victorino, Eugenio Velez… Okay, they weren’t all gems. (BTW, Velez just got recalled and Bochy said something like this (I don’t feel like looking up the exact quote), “Velez might get to pinch run, but that’s about it.” Seriously, he said something like that. Ouch, right? What? Without the actual quote it loses its oomph? You look it up then.)

Lance Berkman – 2 steals, now 14 on the year. Berkman is making a strong case for Fantasy MVP, if they gave out an award for that shizz. His numbers so far 76/22/70/.348/14. He will absolutely kill some fantasy owners next year when he’s drafted too early.

Jeff Francoeur – You ride out Player A for three months through the worst slump of their career, then you drop Player A on Friday when they are demoted to the minors. Now Player A returns three days later and, in his second game back, he hits a home run. Do you pick up Player A again? Or do you risk watching Player A perform well on someone else’s team? Within the answer to this question is your very existence. If you pick up Player A again, you’re the type to give people lots of chances, including girlfriends. Sure, she slept with my best friend, but she was thinking about me. Sometimes this leads to people walking all over you. You’ll think you’re happy, but you won’t actually be for your entire life. Now if you’re the type that doesn’t pick up Player A, you’re tough as nails, and no one walks over you. You also distance yourself from people and don’t cut people enough slack. We broke up because she talked during the opening fifteen minutes of Goodfellas. NOBODY’S allowed to talk during that. You’ll probably find yourself cold and alone for the rest of your life. And that my friends is the Intro to the Tao of Frenchy. You’re welcome.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 San Diego Padres preview.)

When evaluating Padres players in terms of fantasy value, it’s important to consider their home park. The Padres play half their games in an environment that stifles offense, particularly home runs. This means that their pitchers tend to perform better than might otherwise be expected, while hitters tend to perform worse. Each individual is different, of course, but this is a good thing to remember in general.

What follows is a position-by-position look at the 2008 Padres. I’ve also included a few (hopefully useful) tips at the end. Enjoy!

• Catcher

Josh Bard is an above-average hitter at his position. The downside, from a fantasy perspective, is that his 2006 power surge appears to have been a fluke. Bard hits a lot of doubles and draws a lot of walks, both of which are more useful in real life than to your fantasy team.

Michael Barrett was a train wreck after coming to San Diego in 2007. He looked lost at the plate last season, but he’s only 31 years old and he was a top-shelf offensive catcher from 2004 to 2006, so he could rebound. Barrett’s playing time is uncertain, though, and Petco Park is a tough place to re-establish one’s offensive game.

• First Base

Although Adrian Gonzalez probably is a better hitter than, say, Brad Hawpe, fantasy owners must temper their expectations. If Gonzalez played half his games in Milwaukee or Philadelphia, he’d be an instant MVP candidate. But he doesn’t play in either of those places, so don’t pay him like he does.

• Second Base

The Keystone corner can’t get much worse for the Padres than it was in 2007, when Marcus Giles and Geoff Blum manned the position. Newcomer Tadahito Iguchi’s numbers appeared to be in decline last year. Then he moved to the Phillies late in the season and got to experience the joy of hitting at Citizens Bank Park. He won’t have that advantage in 2008. Like Bard, Iguchi provides greater value to his team than to yours.

• Third Base

Kevin Kouzmanoff is a nice little secret. His overall numbers as a rookie were depressed by a miserable start, but from May 7 onward, he hit .309/.362/.511. Kouzmanoff is a good bet to hit .300 or knock 25 home runs in 2008 – possibly both.

• Shortstop

Petco Park is tough on all hitters, but it destroys Khalil Greene. If he played all his games on the road, he’d be Alfonso Soriano at shortstop. But he doesn’t, and he isn’t. His lack of plate discipline won’t hurt you as much as it will hurt the Padres. Greene is good for 20-25 homers, maybe more, but his batting average seems to be stuck in the .250s. If he can get one more hit a week, Greene will vault into the elite shortstop category. If not, he’ll remain what he is – pretty good, but not great.

• Left Field

Scott Hairston hit everything thrown his way after coming to the Padres late last summer. The question with Hairston is whether he can sustain that over a full season. He’s never been given the chance, but he once was a top prospect and he’s still only 28. Assuming Hairston stays healthy and can build on last year’s success, he looks like a good breakout candidate to me.

Chase Headley is a third baseman who has been moved to left field because of Kouzmanoff. All indications are that the transition has been successful, and it’s just a matter of time before Headley contributes for the big club. If he doesn’t win the starting left field job, he may start the season at Triple-A. Long term, think Jeff Cirillo with a little more power, or maybe Mike Lowell lite.

• Center Field

Jim Edmonds is 38 years old and coming off two straight injury-marred campaigns. His skills appear to be in steep decline, and at this point, he’s good for the occasional walk and home run, but probably not much else. There are better options for your fantasy team, and if you can’t find them, you need to look harder.

• Right Field

Like Edmonds, Brian Giles is in the twilight of a fine career. Turn back the clock 5 years, and the Padres have themselves two-thirds of the best outfield in baseball. Without a time machine, though, they have a couple guys hoping for one last good season.

• Starting Pitcher

In 2007, Jake Peavy had the year we all thought he was capable of having. He stayed healthy and mostly dominated, winning the Cy Young Award in the process. The one area where Peavy could improve is efficiency. Because he throws so many pitches, he never made it through the eighth inning last year. Even so, he is a true ace for a big-league team as well as for a fantasy team. Expect more of the same: 15+ wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, and 200+ strikeouts.

Chris Young was establishing himself as one of the NL’s elite pitchers when he landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain in late July. Young didn’t miss much time, but when he came back, it was without his command. Like Peavy, he is inefficient and sometimes has trouble late in games. A return to pre-injury levels (1.82 ERA) is unrealistic, but assuming Young is healthy, he should continue to be a great option for the front of a fantasy rotation.

Greg Maddux doesn’t get old; old gets Maddux. Lame jokes aside, put the veteran right-hander down for his usual: 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, and an army of frustrated hitters.

The last time Randy Wolf made as many as 20 starts in a season was 2004. The last time he posted an ERA below 4.00 was 2002. Petco Park may help with the latter, but whether the 31-year-old southpaw can make it through a full season remains to be seen.

Mark Prior is the nominal #5 starter but isn’t expected to pitch until late-May at the earliest. He worked 43 2/3 innings in 2006 and none last year. Expect nothing and maybe you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

Justin Germano got off to a great start as a rookie in 2007 before the league figured out that his stuff is eminently hittable. He’s a stopgap solution who, given the track records of Wolf and Prior, may be asked to do too much. Again.

• Relief Pitcher

Trevor Hoffman basically had two bad outings last year. Unfortunately they came at the worst possible times and in full view of a national audience that ordinarily ignores the Padres. Pundits have been prognosticating Hoffman’s decline for years. At age 40 and with less margin for error than ever (keep your eye on the shrinking K/9), he may finally prove them right.

One wonders what the New York Mets might have been able to accomplish last year had they not chosen to discard Heath Bell. The right-hander throws hard, throws strikes, and proved extremely durable in his first full big-league season. Bell may not be able to duplicate his monster 2007, but even if he slips a little, he should hold plenty of value. Bell may get some save opportunities when Hoffman needs a day off and could eventually take over the closer role in San Diego.

There is no more extreme groundball pitcher in baseball than Cla Meredith. He elevated his pitches during the middle months of 2007 but finished strong. Meredith won’t get any save opportunities and has little or no value to fantasy players. If you play in sim leagues, e.g., Scoresheet, Meredith can be a useful part of your bullpen.

• Parting Thoughts

I know what I’ve said about Petco Park, but Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff really are terrific young hitters. Gonzalez has done it two years in a row now, and he’s still only 26. His batting average dropped a bit last season, but his walk rate and isolated power improved.

As for Kouzmanoff, he has a great approach at the plate and hits everything hard. Don’t be fooled by his slow start last year. One thing the Padres like about him is the way he handled himself during that stretch. As a rookie, he easily could have gotten down on himself and lost his job, but if anything was bothering him, he never let it show. He will produce at third base.

It’s a small sample, but Hairston looked legit down the stretch last year. If I had to pick one breakout candidate on offense for the Padres, he’d be the guy.

On the pitching side, Peavy is a no-brainer. Keep a close eye on Bell, too, as he’ll be first in line if Hoffman falters. Even if Hoffman doesn’t falter, he’s good for no more than 60 innings these days, which means some saves could land in Bell’s lap.

Finally, Padres pitchers did a miserable job of holding runners in 2007. Young and Maddux were the biggest culprits. Young has been working on this aspect of his game in spring training, but it’s hard to say how much that will pay off during the season. Base stealers who play in the NL West could have a slight advantage over their counterparts who don’t get to face the Padres as often. It might not be enough to make a difference, but you may want to keep this in the back of your mind.

Happy hunting!
Geoff Young runs Ducksnorts and Knuckle Curve.