Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Fantasy All-Stars, 1995-97

August 12, 2008 By: Lou Poulas Category: Fantasy Baseball HOF, Lou Poulas 1 Comment →

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame in conjunction with Razzball.com, are electing the All-Star teams of the Fantasy Era. For every season from 1980 to today full 23 man rosters will be created and analyzed. In the second installment the 1995 through 1997 seasons are identified.

Year: 1995
First Time All Stars: 11 – Edgar Martinez, Jose Mesa, Mike Mussina, Hideo Nomo, Tim Salmon, Pete Schourek, Sammy Sosa, Mike Stanley, Jon Valentin, Mo Vaughn, Mark Wohlers
5 Time All Stars: 4 – Barry Bonds, David Cone, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 9 – Albert Belle, Craig Biggio, Bonds, Cone, Randy Johnson, Maddux, Mike Piazza, Sosa, Thomas,
Snubs: 2 – Chuck Knoblauch (11.9), Reggie Sanders (11.7)
16 Pt Season: 1 – Maddux (17.3)

1995 was the calm before the storm. This team was ranked 14th overall and the All-Stars would soon head into a stretch of four consecutive Top 10 teams, finishing with the best three of all time.

With the exception of relief pitching, all other positions were ranked between 8th and 16th making the team about average in total. For every Mike Piazza (12.6 FBHOF points) there seemed to be a Mike Stanley (5.9 FBHOF points) to counterbalance the team more towards mediocrity. Greg Maddux had an incredible year (17 FBHOF Points, 19 W, 0.81 WHIP, 1.63 ERA) but his All-Star teammate David Cone managed just 9.2 FBHOF points.

One important aspect of 1995 stands out though. Not only was Maddux great, but for the first time in the fantasy era there were two 16 point pitchers in the same year. Joining Maddux is #2 starter Randy Johnson who tossed 214 innings with a 1.05 WHIP and 2.48 ERA, winning 18 and striking out 294.

On offense, Albert Belle and Dante Bichette led the way with 15+ FBHOF point seasons and hitting 90 HR and 254 RBI combined.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 16th
IF: 12th
OF: 11th
SP: 8th
RP: 27th
Overall: 14th

Year: 1996
First Time All Stars: 11 – Kevin Brown, Ellis Burks, Ken Caminiti, Jeff Fassero, Pat Hentgen, Chipper Jones, Chuck Knoblauch, Robb Nen, Alex Rodriguez, Mel Rojas, John Smoltz
3 Time All Stars: 4 – Albert Belle, Dante Bichette, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Piazza
5 Time All Stars: 2 – Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 9 – Belle, Bonds, Brown, Griffey Jr, Jones, Maddux, Piazza, Rodriguez, Smoltz
Snubs: 3 – Brady Anderson (11.7), Gary Sheffield (11.6), Frank Thomas (11.5)
16 Pt Season: 2 – John Smoltz (16.8), Ellis Burks (16.2)

Due to the strength of their potent offense, the 1996 All Stars rank 7th overall. The infield was very good (7th) with only the 2nd catcher Ivan Rodriguez failing to score 10 FBHOF points. First Basemen Andres Galarraga hit 47 HR and drove in 150; Second Basemen Chuck Knoblauch batted .341 with 140 R; Third Basemen Ken Caminiti hit 40 HR; and future FBHOF’er Alex Rodriguez made his first All-Star appearance batting .358 with 141 R, 36 HR, 123 RBI, and 15 SB as the starting shortstop. Other FBHOF’ers making their first all star appearances were Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, and Kevin Brown.

Smoltz was the best player on the team with 16.8 FBHOF points after putting up career highs in Wins, WHIP, ERA, and strikeouts. Ellis Burks’ season was the best ever for a non Fantasy Baseball Hall of Famer, he went: .344 AVG, 142 R, 40 HR, 128 RBI, 32 SB for 16.2 FBHOF points.

The outfield, led by Burks, was stellar, finishing 5th overall. Barry Bonds had a 40/40 season and a .300 batting average; Albert Belle hit 48 HR and almost reached 150 RBI; Kenny Lofton stole 75 bases with 132 runs and a batting average well over .300; and Ken Griffey Jr. had one of his best years going 125 / 49 / 140.

Multiple time All Stars Bichette, Lofton, Hideo Nomo, Mo Vaughn made their last All Star appearances in 1996.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 12th
IF: 7th
OF: 5th
SP: 18th
RP: 18th
Overall: 7th

Year: 1997
First Time All Stars: 6 – Nomar Garciaparra, Darryl Kile, Pedro Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Jeff Shaw, Larry Walker
3 Time All Stars: 6 – Craig Biggio, Andres Galarraga, Ken Griffey Jr, Trevor Hoffman, Ivan Rodriguez, Randy Jonson
5 Time All Stars: 5 – Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 14 – Jeff Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Griffey, Johnson, Chipper Jones, Maddux, Martinez, Piazza, Alex Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Thomas, Walker
Snubs: Vinny Castilla (11.2), Tino Martinez (10.2)
16 Pt Season: 2 – Larry Walker (19.4), Roger Clemens (16.2)

Never in the history of fantasy baseball has such a collection of talent been assembled. This team has it all:

.350+ AVG: Tony Gwynn, Mike Piazza, Larry Walker
50+ HR: Ken Griffey Jr
140+ R: Craig Biggio, Walker
140+ RBI: Andres Galarraga, Griffey
20+ W: Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson
Sub-1.00 WHIP: Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez
Sub-2.00 ERA: Martinez
300+ K: Curt Schilling, Martinez
40+ S: Jeff Shaw

The only missing attribute was a preeminent base stealer, though six players did have 25 or more, capped off by Biggio’s 47.

This team was also second to none in terms of elite seasons. A record five players recorded FBHOF scores of 15 or better:

The crown jewel of the ’97 All Stars is Walker, who amassed more FBHOF points in a single season than any other batter in fantasy history. Walker was good enough to lead the league in On Base percentage, Slugging Percentage, OPS, Total Bases, Home Runs, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits and several other Sabermetric minded stats like Offensive Winning Percentage and Adjusted Batting Runs. He was also Top-Three in Runs, Hits, Doubles, and RBI. It was an all around masterful season and I for one can’t wait to see how it stacks up against the greats of earlier decades (hint hint about future FBHOF developments).

Frank Thomas and Galarraga appeared on their last All Star roster and welcomed newcomers Nomar Garciaparra, Darryl Kile, Martinez, and Walker.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 2nd
IF: 14th
OF: 4th
SP: 1st
RP: 22nd
Overall: 1st

The Fantasy All-Stars, 1992-94

August 04, 2008 By: Lou Poulas Category: Fantasy Baseball HOF, Lou Poulas 2 Comments →

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame in conjunction with Razzball.com, are electing the All-Star teams of the Fantasy Era. For every season from 1980 to today full 23 man rosters will be created and analyzed. In the second installment the 1992 through 1994 seasons are identified.

Year: 1992
First Time All Stars: 10 – Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Brady Anderson, Darren Daulton, Travis Fryman, Marquis Grissom, Doug Jones, Dennis Martinez, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield
3 Time All Stars: 6 – Barry Bonds, Joe Carter, David Cone, Dennis Eckersley, Greg Maddux, Mickey Tettleton, Kirby Puckett
5 Time All Stars: 3 – Roger Clemens, Paul Molitor, Ryne Sandberg
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 11 – Alomar, Bonds, Clemens, Cone, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas
Snubs: 2 – Terry Pendleton (11.4), Ray Lankford (11.2)
16 Pt Season: None

The finest All-Star teams were assembled in the late 1990’s, coinciding exactly with the period of off the charts offensive levels and thanks to the ability a handful of great pitchers who were able to maintain their own production levels despite this increase. While the early 1990’s featured some of the worst all star squads, several key greats made their first appearances in this timeframe. Roberto Alomar, Albert Belle, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield, and Frank Thomas each made their first all star team between 1990-1993.

This wasn’t much of a help in 1992. In only a few rare cases in baseball history do players have their best season the first time they’re considered great, rather, they start good, become great, level off to good again and then retire. So while the 1992 team may be riddled with all-star names, they hadn’t quite reached superstar status yet. In fact, the 1992 team is the second worst on record.

Their two defining qualities were the catchers and relief corps – which happen to be the two least important aspects of any fantasy team. Darren Daulton and Mickey Tettleton were power hitting backstops, averaging 29 HR, 96 RBI, and 81 R between them. Daulton even threw in 11 stolen bases for good measure. The two were good enough to be ranked 2nd best among all star teams that didn’t feature Mike Piazza.

No closer had an ERA above 2.00 and Doug Jones, Dennis Eckersley, and Duane Ward combined to strike out nearly 300 batters.

The Toronto Blue Jays, led by fantasy All Stars Roberto Alomar, Joe Carter, and Ward bested the Atlanta Braves 4 games to 2 in the World Series.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 6th
IF: 26th
OF: 19th
SP: 28th
RP: 9th
Overall: 27th

Year: 1993
First Time All Stars: 11 – Kevin Appier, Rod Beck, Albert Belle, Juan Gonzalez, Ken Griffey Jr, Randy Johnson, Jeff Montgomery, Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Piazza, Billy Swift, John Wetteland
3 Time All Stars: 4 –Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Ron Gant, Frank Thomas
5 Time All Stars: 1 – Paul Molitor
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 9 – Roberto Alomar, Belle, Bonds, Griffey, Johnson, Maddux, Molitor, Piazza, Thomas
Snubs: Marquis Grissom (11.7), Lenny Dykstra (11.7)
16 Pt Season: Bonds (17.0)

After a long hiatus of ten consecutive well below average teams, the All-Stars of 1993 finally cracked the Top 15. This was not a great team, but after finishing 27th the year before, their 11th place finish was quite remarkable.

The key areas of improvement were in the outfield and starting pitcher positions. Barry Bonds was the best player in fantasy baseball, amassing 17.0 FBHOF points, the first exceptional fantasy season since 1988 when Jose Canseco recorded 18.3 points. Bonds combined power, speed, and a high average as only a select few have done before – .336 AVG, 129 R, 46 HR, 123 RBI, 29 SB. Joining him in the outfield were Ken Griffey Jr, Juan Gonzalez, Albert Belle, and Ron Gant who between them averaged 106 R, 41 HR, 118 RBI, and 18 SB.

While the outfield improved considerably, it was nothing compared to how much better the 1993 pitchers were over their predecessors. They rank 11th, a 17 slot improvement, due to the fact five pitchers scored 11 or more FBHOF Points. Compare this to 1992 when just 2 accomplished the feat. Fantasy Baseball Hall of Famer’s Greg Maddux (20 W, 2.36 ERA) and Randy Johnson (19 W, 308 K) led the charge with 14.5 and 13.9 FBHOF points respectively. While not great names, Jose Rijo, Kevin Appier, and Bill Swift all had great seasons with a combined average 18 W, 1.09 WHIP, 2.62 ERA.

FBHOF’er catcher Mike Piazza made his first in a string of ten consecutive All-Star appearances in 1993, beginning a stretch of greatness unparalleled in fantasy baseball. No player has dominated his position like Piazza. The only catcher elected to the FBHOF, Piazza has the best three year positional score in the history of fantasy baseball. The official FBHOF score is comprised of two data points – scoring against the peers at a player’s position, and a scoring against all players. Looking solely at the positional component:

Piazza ranks first in 3-year peak and second in 5 and 10 year peak scores.

The 1993 World Series featured the famous Joe Carter walk-off home run to lead the Blue Jays past the Phillies in 6 games.  Roberto Alomar and Paul Molitor represented Toronto, and Darren Daulton Philadelphia.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 14th
IF: 20th
OF: 13th
SP: 11th
RP: 7th
Overall: 11th

Year: 1994
First Time All Stars: 6 – Jeff Bagwell, Dante Bichette, Jeff Brantley, Trevor Hoffman, Kenny Lofton, Ivan Rodriguez
3 Time All Stars: 7 – Carlos Baerga, David Cone, Doug Drabek, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Bret Saberhagen, Matt Williams
5 Time All Stars: 3 – Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Cal Ripken
10 Time All Stars: None
Future FBHOF’ers: 13 – Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Bonds, Albert Belle, Clemens, Cone, Ken Griffey Jr, Randy Jonson, Maddux, Mike Piazza, Saberhagen, Thomas, Ripken,
Snubs: Jose Canseco (11.3, 2nd Snub), Paul Molitor (11.2), Kirby Puckett (11.1, 2nd Snub)
16 Pt Season: Maddux (18.8), Bagwell (17.6)

Two aspects of the 1994 team stand out – no other season featured two players to reach 17+ FBHOF points, and this was one hell of an outfield. The outfielders collectively rank second, behind only the 1981 team which featured four players with 14 or more points. Three players reached 14 this year – Albert Belle (36 HR, .357 AVG, 101 RBI), Ken Griffey Jr (40 HR), and Barry Bonds (37 HR, 29 SB). Keeping in mind that nearly 30% of the season was lost due to the strike, these numbers are impressive.

The best offensive player of the season was Jeff Bagwell. He batted .368 with 104 R, 39 HR, 116 RBI, and 15 SB en route to 17.6 FBHOF points – 5th best all time and tops among first basemen. It was his first year as an all star and he would eventually be elected to three more All-Star squads.

The premier player of 1994, regardless of position, was Greg Maddux who turned in the best season in fantasy history, recording 18.8 points. Using funny math and adding back the missing 30% of the season due to the strike, we arrive at a line of 21 W, 0.90 WHIP, 1.56 ERA, and 203 K. Complete domination.

Unlike the great seasons of Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson that would soon be upon the fantasy community, Maddux was the only pitcher of his time to be 50% better than his closest competition. This is reflected in the FBHOF scoring system. The table below depicts the elite pitching seasons of the fantasy era along with the scoring of the next best pitcher of the year:

Maddux had no equals.  Later in the 1990s, it was a constant battle between Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez.  In 1994 Maddux stood alone atop the pitching community.

Several new All-Stars of 1994 would go on to have great careers: Ivan Rodriguez (6 ASP), Trevor Hoffman (5 ASP), Craig Biggio (4 ASP), and Dante Bichette (3 ASP).  Three 3-time all stars made their last appearance this year as well – Carlos Baerga, Doug Drabek, and Matt Williams.

In one of the biggest mistakes in baseball history, the 1994 World Series was canceled due to labor strife.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 15th
IF: 25th
OF: 2nd
SP: 10th
RP: 28th
Overall: 17th

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame, Outfielder Inductees Part 2

May 20, 2008 By: Lou Poulas Category: Fantasy Baseball HOF, Lou Poulas 7 Comments →

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

1 – Barry Bonds
Where to start with the best baseball has seen this side of George Herman?   Maybe a list will suffice:

- Bonds has more 10 FBHOF Point seasons that any other.
- If 10 Points is the mark of “goodness”, the mark of greatness is 13.  Bonds has more of these than any other as well.
- He has taken longevity to the extreme.  Bonds is the only player to be Fantasy Worthy in 20 or more seasons and never have a single year in his career where an eligible season was deemed not worthy.
- He has had fourteen finishes as a Top-15 ranked batter, a mark 40% better than any other.
- His 5 year peak average is off the charts:  .317, 112 R, 45 HR, 112 RBI, 32 SB
- During various times in his career, Bonds has batted .370, hit 73 HR, scored 129 times, had 137 RBI, and stole 52 bases – there is nothing else he could have accomplished on the field of fantasy baseball.
- And if you were in On-Base leagues, well, he singled handedly carried many a team.

Bonds mark of 90.0 FBHOF points is best all time among hitters.  He’s first in any position in Career total, and his peak score of 77.6 is second only to Alex Rodriguez.  He’ll have a special write up for in commemoration of being one of a handful to accumulate 85 or more FBHOF points.

2 – Rickey Henderson
Henderson is another all time great that had an ability to combine power and speed like few others.  In his case, few others in the history of all baseball, and not just within the fantasy era.

Henderson owns the record for most career stolen bases, and given how precious these can be in fantasy baseball, we’ll start there.  He appeared in 90 or more games 21 times in his fantasy career, missing the mark in 1996 and 2002.  Of those 21 seasons, he stole 30 or more bases all but once.  He stole 40+ sixteen times, 60+ ten times, and 100+ three times, topping out at 130 in 1982.  Some whole fantasy teams don’t steal 130 bases today.

While not a great average hitter (.279 fantasy career, though he did reach .300 on seven occasions) he did walk a great deal (2190 career), which led to a prolific amount of run scoring.  He reached the 100 runs scored mark thirteen times and averaged 126 during his 5-year peak.

What truly set him above others of his ilk was the fact he could hit for some power.  He hit between 20 and 30 home runs four times, in 1985, 1986, 1990, and 1993, and on several occasions finished in the Top 20.

His best fantasy season was the first year he was with the Yankees.  In 1985 he hit .314 with 24 HR, 72 RBI, 80 SB and the # 1 rank in batters.  This was also good enough for 3rd in the MVP ballot behind teammate Don Mattingly and George Brett.  Mattingly also finished as the second best batter in fantasy baseball.

3 – Ken Griffey Jr.
4 – Sammy Sosa
The careers of the next two outfielders overlap almost perfectly, and given the fact they have almost identical FBHOF scores we’ll chart them in tandem.  First, a graph of their point totals by year.

Both started their careers in 1989 but with much different pedigrees.  Sosa signed for $3,500 as an amateur free agent in 1985 by the Texas Rangers.  He made the majors in 1989, but started slowly and did not become a major fantasy force until 1993 when he hit 33 HR and stole 36 bases.

At the same time, Griffey was the first pick of the draft in 1987, and had an impact immediately, and almost attaining the 10 FBHOF point mark in the second year of his career.  Griffey ultimately outpaced Sosa in each year through the 1994 season.  At the end of these first 6 years Griffey accumulated 63.8 FBHOF points to Sosa’s 19.2.  With exception of Griffey’s injury riddled 1995 seasons, this trend would continue through 1997, with the gap widening to 93.1 vs. 46.3

1998 and 1999 were banner years for both players with Sosa’s ‘98 campaign going down as one of the best seasons ever (and better than any of Griffey’s):  .308 AVG, 134 R, 66 HR, 158 RBI, 18 SB.  Griffey declined steadily from this point forward, routinely succumbing to injuries, though he did have a decent 8 FBHOF point season in 2005.

Sosa lasted a few more years, putting up 5 consecutive seasons of 10 or more FBHOF points.  His other great season was 2001 when he batted .328 with 146 R, 64 HR, 160 RBI, but no stolen bases.  Still, Sosa hung on at the tail end of his career until he hit rock bottom in 2005.

Let’s compare their years in point order instead of chronological:

Sosa’s best two years are better than Griffey’s best two, but Griffey picks up the slack topping Sosa by a fairly wide margin in the remaining 3 year peak period gives him the edge.  Further, though this does not specifically count in the induction criteria, Griffey’s best 6th through 9th seasons are better than the corresponding seasons for Sosa.  And if we simply add up the best 9 seasons for each, Griffey leads comfortably 113.8 to 107.0.

One last comment before moving on to the next player.  While both of these greats played in virtually the same exact years, Griffey’s stardom came a bit earlier than Sosa’s.  The offensive levels from 1991-1999 were lower than the same nine year period from 1993 -2002.  Sosa’s great years came during a time when many a player were having great years – proof of which can be seen in a 2 line table:

Top 10 Finishes Among Batters
Griffey – 6
Sosa – 4

5 – Dale Murphy

The two time Most Value Player was one of the premier outfielders of 1980’s.  His 16.6 FBHOF points in 1983 is 11th best of the fantasy era and his 5-year peak score is 10th best.

Murphy was a power hitter with the ability to steal a fair amount bases.  His 5 year peak average stat line was superb:  .294 Avg, 114 R, 38 HR, 109 RBI, 20 SB.  This was good enough for five Top-6 finishes among batters, two of which were the best of the outfielders in 1982 and 1983.

His career total of 109.7 FBHOF points is just 31st of all time since his peak was relatively short.  Thirty-four players have accumulated a score of 65 or better, the bogey used for induction (though special circumstances can aid one’s case as well).  However, only five retired players have less career points.

6 – Albert Belle
Belle was his generation’s version of a disgruntled Dale Murphy.  During his prime, few could hit a ball any harder.  His peak average of .318 AVG, 108 R, 44 HR, 131 RBI, and 11 SB is 9th best among batters.  But his career lasted just eleven seasons before an arthritic hip forced an early end to his career.

He was fantasy baseball’s best batter in 1995 and had seven total top-25 finishes.

7 – Andre Dawson
“The Hawk” is the first outfielder we’ve come across to require additional seasons beyond the peak 5 years in order to meet FBHOF requirements.  His peak score of 64.7 is very good, but just a hair shy of the magical 65.  Dawson did have 10 additional fantasy worthy seasons though, bringing his score up to a more than respectable 71.2.

His best run was in the early 80’s when on average he finished seasons ranked, on average, 7th.  This does not mean there were 6 better batters – over the four year stretch of 1980-1983 only Cecil Cooper was ranked higher.  The strike shortened 1981 season receives the most FBHOF points – in just 103 games he batted .302 with 71 R, 24 HR, 64 RBI, and 26 SB.  This was second best behind an extraordinary season from fellow FB Hall of Famer, Mike Schmidt.

The season most remembered was in 1987 after he hit 49 HR and drove in 137 runners.  1987 was an abnormal year for power hitters though, and this was good enough for ‘just’ 5th best.

Just Missed the Cut
The complete list of the Top 25 outfielders is as follows:

Quite a list for sure, but two names below the red line require additional commentary.

Dwight Evans was great, but had only two seasons where he was a top 5 outfielder.  He falls just short of the 65 FBHOF point mark and with a field as crowded as this, he doesn’t warrant induction.   Additionally, there appears to be a clear line separating Evans and those ranked above him.

Tony Gwynn certainly deserves his spot in the Baseball Hall of Fame, but he didn’t do quite enough at the plate to impact Fantasy Baseball like he did for the Padres.  FB Hall of Famers can sometimes get by being great in four of five categories, but only a relative few can do so in three.  In his peak 5-year period, Gwynn averaged just 9 HR and 73 RBI. For sake of comparison, Tim Raines averaged 11 HR and 55 RBI, but he also bested Gwynn by averaging 71 stolen bases during his peak, almost twice as many.