Fantasy Baseball Advice

A right to the jaw, Gallardo goes down. Left to the jaw, Rich Hill sucks. Go to throw in the towel and Guthrie grabs your hand. Uppercut to the chin, Harang sucks. Aaron Cook takes a few body blows and rights the ship. Body blow and Franceour hits the canvas. You prepare to throw in the towel, but Hamilton grabs your hand and you’re feeling a second wind, then, out of nowhere, right, left, right — you’re toothless. Damn, these fantasy baseball injuries are ruthless. You’re stammering, “Momma?” as you hobble around the ring. You see three of your opponent because your eye needs to be cut and then Kinsler hits the DL. Like Saddam’s gold-ish statue, you topple to the ground. Kinsler may be out for the season. I have nothing else to say, but this totally sucky-suck-sucks. Some guys I’m looking at grabbing, Wigginton, Kent, Cesar Izturis, Sanchez or Polanco. I say “or,” because God help you if you need more than one of those. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ryan Braun - Ugh, Part II. He left the game after swinging and missing. I’m pretty sure he’s headed to the DL. I wish he would’ve just sat out the last two games so he wouldn’t now need another 15 games, but when it hurts to swing, it’s not a good sign.

Justin Duchscherer - And the hits keep coming. He reinjured the same hip that shut him down last season. He’s thrown nearly as many innings this year as he’s thrown in the last three years combined. You guys had a good run. When Dook-sher goes in for the MRI and CornNuts, leave him by the side of the road.

Greg Maddux - Looks like he’s being traded to the Dodgers. This is the one place where Maddux may have slightly more value than Petco. Dodgers Stadium is also a pitcher’s park, it’s in the same crap division (now he can face the Padres!) and the Dodgers score a few more runs. That is a win, win, win! Though, he’s still a questionable starter depending on matchups.

Barry Zito - 7 scoreless innings against the Braves. After the game, Bobby Cox said, “I’d give back ‘95 if someone could make this end.”

Jorge Campillo - 6 2/3 innings, 5 ER. As I mentioned last week, I quit Campillo in all of my leagues. There’s an addendum to that, I picked up Campillo for my Razzball team, so now Campillo’s job is to become the worst pitcher ever.

Matt LaPorta - Was hit on the head during the Olympics and taken to the hospital where Michael Phelps performed open head surgery and now LaPorta will be fine. Phelps also made a the most delicious Dum-Dum Lollipop for LaPorta to suck on while he heals. The ingredients were two parts corn syrup, one part lepruchuan.

Evan Longoria - Rays are still saying September 1st is Longoria’s return date. On a real baseball note, the Rays seem like they’re having one of those special seasons where it doesn’t matter who gets hurt. They could fill Willy Aybar in for their 1 thru 9 hitters and it wouldn’t matter.

Al Reyes - Declined his minor league assignment and is now a free agent. Here’s some obvious speculation, Al Reyes’s new home will be with the New York Mets.

Troy Percival - Supposedly Percival will be able to return without surgery. He’s still due to miss 2-4 weeks, which in old man weeks is 4 weeks. I still like Wheeler to be the Rays closer.

John Maine - 5 scoreless innings only to have the bullpen give it away. He walked four through five innings. Against a better offense, this line may not look as good.

Jason Bay - 2 HRs and a steal. Manny who? The guy who hits a home run every game for the Dodgers. Oh, right!

Adam LaRoche - HR yesterday. 6-for-20 since returning, which for him is hot.

B.J. Upton - After being reprimanded two times prior for lack of hustle, he jogged to 2nd yesterday and was tagged out. Well, everyone knows you shouldn’t rush a B.J.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame. To read more on the FBHOF, click here.

In a continuation from last week, Part II of the starting pitcher class is enshrined today. The corresponding FBHOF page for the catchers can be found here.

I have a confession to make – chick’s may dig the long ball, but I dig a sub-2.00 ERA.  I have always been a sucker for starting pitching and would take 1994 Greg Maddux over 2001 Barry Bonds every day of the week.  I weep openly when reviewing the 1906 Chicago Cubs rotation and pine for the next Walter Johnson.  An elite starter is the most potent weapon a team can field as he alone has the singular ability to render every other player at the park virtually meaningless.  It didn’t matter who Bob Gibson or Randy Johnson faced when they were at their best because making contact was a fruitless exercise.

Five starting pitchers are to be enshrined today, four of which are immortals that separated themselves from the rest of baseball like no quartet has done before.  Randy Johnson, Gregg Maddux, Roger Clemens, and Pedro Martinez are all first ballot Hall of Famers when considering skill and skill alone.  They are elite Fantasy Hall of Famers as well.  No players, at any position, improved their team’s chances at winning more than these four.

But first we pay our respects to #5 all time, Curt Schilling, a starter who battled himself and injuries for 9 years before becoming a fantasy star.  Schilling’s best season came as a 35 year old with the Diamondbacks in 2002.  He won 23 games, held his WHIP down to 0.97, and struck out a whopping 316 batters.  The year before he won 22 with a 1.08 WHIP and had 293 strikeouts.  In 1997 and 1998 he also struck out an extreme number of batters, giving him three 300+ strikeout seasons.  Since 1990 Schilling is one of just three pitchers to strike out this many; has the second most such season seasons since 1980; and third most since the deadball era ended.  Yet, Schilling never finished any season as the best fantasy pitcher, with good reason though - his competition was fierce.

The Top 25-Fantasy Pitchers:

Schilling was superb, scoring over 72 points while contributing in just 4 categories, but had no where near the impact of the “Big Four”.  Martinez, ranked 4th, scores full 17% better than Schilling, who himself scores 15% better than Kevin Brown.

Holding fantasy value aside for the moment, one can make a convincing argument that no pitcher in the history of the game was more dominant over a two year stretch than Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000, the latter year being the single greatest pitching performance in the history of the sport in my opinion.

I think we are all now familiar with Baseball-Reference.com at this point, and likely all familiar with ERA+, but in case you are not, ERA+ is a statistic that shows how much better than average a pitchers ERA is, when considering ballparks (it is more difficult to pitch at the Ballpark in Arlington than it is at Shea).  Holding aside the 1800’s where the game was vastly different than it is today (9 balls, batters get to call their own pitch, etc) here is the Top 10 list of best seasonal ERA+ scores:

291 – Pedro Martinez, 2000
279 – Dutch Leonard, 1914
271 – Greg Maddux, 1994
262 – Greg Maddux, 1995
259 – Walter Johnson, 1913
258 – Bob Gibson, 1968
253 – 3-Finger Brown, 1906
243 – Pedro Martinez, 1999
242 – Walter Johnson, 1912

As impressive as it is to have an era 191% better than league average, it is probably more impressive to be this much better than the next best.  Further, in 2000, Martinez had an unheard of WHIP of 0.74.  That figure is so good it’s unjust, perhaps even Wiffle Ball good, and is best mark all time 1800’s be damned.

Martinez had more to his career than 2000 of course.  He also finished first among pitchers in 1999 and recorded 4 other Top-5 seasons, giving him a stellar record of performance during his peak:  19 W, 0.92 WHIP, 2.18 ERA, 278 K during his best 5 years.

It’s odd thinking about this now, and it isn’t just a reaction to the recent criticism Roger Clemens has brought upon himself, but somehow the greatest pitcher likely since the 1930’s has gone underrated.  Make no mistake, Clemens was awesome over a period of almost 20 years.  In 1986, his third year in the bigs, and in his first season as a full time starter, the Rocket won 24 games, struck out 238 batters (in 254 innings), recorded a WHIP of 0.97 and an ERA of 2.48.  In his 22nd season as a major league starter, Clemens came through a 1.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in just over 211 innings of work.  In between he won 17+ games eleven times; had ERA’s well below league average thirteen times; and struck out 185+ batters 14 times.

As a fantasy player Clemens was at his best in 1997 when tossing for the Blue Jays:  21 W, 1.03 WHIP, 2.05 ERA, 292 K’s and the #1 pitcher ranking in the game, a feat he achieved on three earlier occasions as well in 1987, 1990 and 1991.  His 5 year peak average looks like this:  21 W, 1.06 WHIP, 2.56 ERA, 260K with finishes of 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd.

What separates Clemens from Greg Maddux for fantasy purposes is an utterly dominant season.  At his best, Clemens scored 16.2 FBHOF points.  Maddux finished both his 1994 and 1995 seasons with more points, and more points by far.  In 1994, a strike year of course, Maddux won 16 games mostly because of his off the chart rate stats – 0.90 WHIP and 1.56 ERA.  He also struck out 156 batters, which seems low, but is quite good when considering he lost as many as 10 starts, perhaps 60-65 total K’s.  This line of thinking is instructive - prorating for the whole season his stat line becomes:  22 W, 0.90 WHIP, 1.56 ERA, 221 K which just happens to be the single most dominating performance in fantasy history – 18.8 FBHOF points.

The following year he bested Clemens top performance again, this time with 17 points due to a 0.81 WHIP and 1.63 ERA.  In all Maddux has four #1 finishes to his name and his peak 5 year average is masterful:  18 W, 0.96 WHIP, 2.03 ERA, 183 K.

Finally, we end with Randy Johnson, of whom it can be argued, for fantasy anyway, was Clemens and Maddux rolled into one.  Clemens was amazing for his longevity – 12 seasons of 8+ FBHOF points.  Maddux scored so high due to his tantalizing rate stats - eight seasons with a WHIP under 1.10 and seven with ERA’s under 2.65.  Johnson himself is just shy of Clemens with eleven “Hall of Fame” worthy seasons and does indeed match Maddux for incredible ERA’s and falls just one short on WHIP side of the ledger.

Remembering that pitchers can score in just four categories we also need to bring up Johnson’s record of six seasons scoring 16+ FBHOF points.  How good is this?  In 2000 Johnson had 19 W, 347 K, 1.12 WHIP, a 2.64 ERA and it basically doesn’t count towards his Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame credentials since it wasn’t good enough to count as part of his 5 year peak.

Further, Johnson struck out 300 or more batters twice as much Schilling and all told bested the 290 mark another nine times. Nine! What do you get when you combine the power of Schilling with the finesse of Maddux, and then mix in the sustained greatness of Clemens?  You get the best Fantasy Baseball player in history.

A chart of some key metrics for our last five inductees, because, yes, I love great pitchers:

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 San Diego Padres preview.)

When evaluating Padres players in terms of fantasy value, it’s important to consider their home park. The Padres play half their games in an environment that stifles offense, particularly home runs. This means that their pitchers tend to perform better than might otherwise be expected, while hitters tend to perform worse. Each individual is different, of course, but this is a good thing to remember in general.

What follows is a position-by-position look at the 2008 Padres. I’ve also included a few (hopefully useful) tips at the end. Enjoy!

• Catcher

Josh Bard is an above-average hitter at his position. The downside, from a fantasy perspective, is that his 2006 power surge appears to have been a fluke. Bard hits a lot of doubles and draws a lot of walks, both of which are more useful in real life than to your fantasy team.

Michael Barrett was a train wreck after coming to San Diego in 2007. He looked lost at the plate last season, but he’s only 31 years old and he was a top-shelf offensive catcher from 2004 to 2006, so he could rebound. Barrett’s playing time is uncertain, though, and Petco Park is a tough place to re-establish one’s offensive game.

• First Base

Although Adrian Gonzalez probably is a better hitter than, say, Brad Hawpe, fantasy owners must temper their expectations. If Gonzalez played half his games in Milwaukee or Philadelphia, he’d be an instant MVP candidate. But he doesn’t play in either of those places, so don’t pay him like he does.

• Second Base

The Keystone corner can’t get much worse for the Padres than it was in 2007, when Marcus Giles and Geoff Blum manned the position. Newcomer Tadahito Iguchi’s numbers appeared to be in decline last year. Then he moved to the Phillies late in the season and got to experience the joy of hitting at Citizens Bank Park. He won’t have that advantage in 2008. Like Bard, Iguchi provides greater value to his team than to yours.

• Third Base

Kevin Kouzmanoff is a nice little secret. His overall numbers as a rookie were depressed by a miserable start, but from May 7 onward, he hit .309/.362/.511. Kouzmanoff is a good bet to hit .300 or knock 25 home runs in 2008 – possibly both.

• Shortstop

Petco Park is tough on all hitters, but it destroys Khalil Greene. If he played all his games on the road, he’d be Alfonso Soriano at shortstop. But he doesn’t, and he isn’t. His lack of plate discipline won’t hurt you as much as it will hurt the Padres. Greene is good for 20-25 homers, maybe more, but his batting average seems to be stuck in the .250s. If he can get one more hit a week, Greene will vault into the elite shortstop category. If not, he’ll remain what he is – pretty good, but not great.

• Left Field

Scott Hairston hit everything thrown his way after coming to the Padres late last summer. The question with Hairston is whether he can sustain that over a full season. He’s never been given the chance, but he once was a top prospect and he’s still only 28. Assuming Hairston stays healthy and can build on last year’s success, he looks like a good breakout candidate to me.

Chase Headley is a third baseman who has been moved to left field because of Kouzmanoff. All indications are that the transition has been successful, and it’s just a matter of time before Headley contributes for the big club. If he doesn’t win the starting left field job, he may start the season at Triple-A. Long term, think Jeff Cirillo with a little more power, or maybe Mike Lowell lite.

• Center Field

Jim Edmonds is 38 years old and coming off two straight injury-marred campaigns. His skills appear to be in steep decline, and at this point, he’s good for the occasional walk and home run, but probably not much else. There are better options for your fantasy team, and if you can’t find them, you need to look harder.

• Right Field

Like Edmonds, Brian Giles is in the twilight of a fine career. Turn back the clock 5 years, and the Padres have themselves two-thirds of the best outfield in baseball. Without a time machine, though, they have a couple guys hoping for one last good season.

• Starting Pitcher

In 2007, Jake Peavy had the year we all thought he was capable of having. He stayed healthy and mostly dominated, winning the Cy Young Award in the process. The one area where Peavy could improve is efficiency. Because he throws so many pitches, he never made it through the eighth inning last year. Even so, he is a true ace for a big-league team as well as for a fantasy team. Expect more of the same: 15+ wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, and 200+ strikeouts.

Chris Young was establishing himself as one of the NL’s elite pitchers when he landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain in late July. Young didn’t miss much time, but when he came back, it was without his command. Like Peavy, he is inefficient and sometimes has trouble late in games. A return to pre-injury levels (1.82 ERA) is unrealistic, but assuming Young is healthy, he should continue to be a great option for the front of a fantasy rotation.

Greg Maddux doesn’t get old; old gets Maddux. Lame jokes aside, put the veteran right-hander down for his usual: 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, and an army of frustrated hitters.

The last time Randy Wolf made as many as 20 starts in a season was 2004. The last time he posted an ERA below 4.00 was 2002. Petco Park may help with the latter, but whether the 31-year-old southpaw can make it through a full season remains to be seen.

Mark Prior is the nominal #5 starter but isn’t expected to pitch until late-May at the earliest. He worked 43 2/3 innings in 2006 and none last year. Expect nothing and maybe you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

Justin Germano got off to a great start as a rookie in 2007 before the league figured out that his stuff is eminently hittable. He’s a stopgap solution who, given the track records of Wolf and Prior, may be asked to do too much. Again.

• Relief Pitcher

Trevor Hoffman basically had two bad outings last year. Unfortunately they came at the worst possible times and in full view of a national audience that ordinarily ignores the Padres. Pundits have been prognosticating Hoffman’s decline for years. At age 40 and with less margin for error than ever (keep your eye on the shrinking K/9), he may finally prove them right.

One wonders what the New York Mets might have been able to accomplish last year had they not chosen to discard Heath Bell. The right-hander throws hard, throws strikes, and proved extremely durable in his first full big-league season. Bell may not be able to duplicate his monster 2007, but even if he slips a little, he should hold plenty of value. Bell may get some save opportunities when Hoffman needs a day off and could eventually take over the closer role in San Diego.

There is no more extreme groundball pitcher in baseball than Cla Meredith. He elevated his pitches during the middle months of 2007 but finished strong. Meredith won’t get any save opportunities and has little or no value to fantasy players. If you play in sim leagues, e.g., Scoresheet, Meredith can be a useful part of your bullpen.

• Parting Thoughts

I know what I’ve said about Petco Park, but Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff really are terrific young hitters. Gonzalez has done it two years in a row now, and he’s still only 26. His batting average dropped a bit last season, but his walk rate and isolated power improved.

As for Kouzmanoff, he has a great approach at the plate and hits everything hard. Don’t be fooled by his slow start last year. One thing the Padres like about him is the way he handled himself during that stretch. As a rookie, he easily could have gotten down on himself and lost his job, but if anything was bothering him, he never let it show. He will produce at third base.

It’s a small sample, but Hairston looked legit down the stretch last year. If I had to pick one breakout candidate on offense for the Padres, he’d be the guy.

On the pitching side, Peavy is a no-brainer. Keep a close eye on Bell, too, as he’ll be first in line if Hoffman falters. Even if Hoffman doesn’t falter, he’s good for no more than 60 innings these days, which means some saves could land in Bell’s lap.

Finally, Padres pitchers did a miserable job of holding runners in 2007. Young and Maddux were the biggest culprits. Young has been working on this aspect of his game in spring training, but it’s hard to say how much that will pay off during the season. Base stealers who play in the NL West could have a slight advantage over their counterparts who don’t get to face the Padres as often. It might not be enough to make a difference, but you may want to keep this in the back of your mind.

Happy hunting!
Geoff Young runs Ducksnorts and Knuckle Curve.

The blog is about fantasy baseball, but it’s sometimes hard to ignore what goes on in the real baseball world. Frankly, if we weren’t baseball fans first, we wouldn’t give a rat’s ass about fantasy baseball. So, with a heavy heart I write, yesterday was a tough day to be a fan. Taint on lots of big names, past and present — Bonds, Clemens, Pettitte, McGwire, Bagwell, Gagne, Sosa, Justice, Tejada and, um, F.P. Santangelo. The list goes on for pages. If you want to read The Mitchell Report in its entirety, you can here. It’s lengthy and pretty depressing, kinda like if Ken Burns did a seven-part documentary on Tonya from The Real World. But today is a new day, and I’m going to try and put a positive spin on things. Here is a list of some players NOT in The Mitchell Report. If you will, a tribute.

Greg Maddux – 347 wins going into 2008. In 1998, while McGwire racked up 70 homers, Maddux went 18-9 with a 2.22 ERA and 208 strikeouts. Good to hear the Padres are bringing him back for another year. Maybe he’ll pass Clemens on the all-time wins list.

Tom Glavine – 303 wins, 2570 career Ks, and a lifetime 3.51 ERA. In 1998, Sosa hit 66 homers, but went 0 for 4 against Glavine with three strikeouts. In the Cubs second game against Glavine in 1998, Sosa sat out to give Matt Mieske some at-bats.

Randy Johnson – 4616 career strikeouts. Hopefully, he can make it back for his 300th win. It would be nice to see. In 2001, while Bonds hit 73 homers, Randy struck out 372 batters, which is eleventh most for a season and the most since Nolan Ryan in 1973.

Pedro Martinez – From 1997 to 2003, the heart of the having-a-trainer-inject-my-ass-with-something era, Pedro had ERAs of 1.90, 2.89, 2.07, 1.74, 2.39, 2.226 and 2.22 respectively.

Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera – Combined they have over 900 saves and zero mentions in The Mitchell Report. What’s that? Gagne had trouble bouncing back day after day? Trevor smiles at Mariano then, “Try it for twelve years.”

Cy Young Winners from 1996 ‘til present – Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, John Smoltz, C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay and Barry Zito.

Alex Rodriguez – Canseco claims Arod should be in the Mitchell Report, but he’s not. I say we give him the benefit of the doubt. BTW, he’s arguably the best hitter in the game. When you’re in that argument, you’re pretty good.

Albert Pujols – See that premature balding is hereditary! BTW, second best hitter in the game.

Todd Helton – In 2001, he batted 132/49/146/.336. Too bad it was overshadowed.

Vladimir Guerrero – Some players medicate when they’re hobbled by injuries, some hobble. Here’s one for the hobblers.

Ichiro Suzuki – For not being in The Mitchell Report — arrigato.

Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder – If they test positive, it’s because their steak was injected on the way to the slaughterhouse.

Frank Thomas – Okay, so he’s the Henry Hill of all of this, but it’s still a shame his 500 home runs came at a time when that was a ticket for Copperstown consideration and not a ticket to Copperstown.

Manny Ramirez – The thought of Manny trying to inject himself with something is ludicrous. Actually, the thought of Manny thinking is pretty ludicrous, but Manny get a hug from Big Papi for not being in The Report.

David Ortiz – While we’re here, someone Big Papi wasn’t hugging was McNamee.

Ken Griffey Jr. – Maybe if Griffey took the shortcut many of colleagues did to help recuperate from injury, he would be approaching 800 home runs. Maybe his self-respect meant too much.

I wish these players above had received more recognition then and now. There’s lots of names I’m failing to mention. Please feel free to comment below some names that weren’t on The Mitchell Report.