Fantasy Baseball Advice

Bottom of the Ninth: Every Closer Be Shuffling

May 03, 2012 By: Albert Lang Category: Closers 187 Comments →

I blame the media: every manager has an itchy trigger finger early in the season when it comes to the bullpen. Or I blame myself and everyone else who obsesses over fantasy as we’ve created a culture where 5.2 IPs are something that need to be dissected and reacted to as if a reliever is only going to throw 10 innings, not 60-80 innings, in a season.

That said, that’s the culture we’re in. Fantasy baseball owners need to be nimble and react and jump on potential closers. With that in mind, let’s get bold and look down the line at which RPs will emerge as saviors.

As always, check the bottom of the column for the BS meter, which will track blown saves for relevant relievers all season long. As you’ll note in the nifty third-grade-level chart, only 16 subjectively “relevant” relievers have blown 2 or more saves. Of those, nine were closers to start the year. Oddly, Scott Downs has two blown saves and the pitcher he replaced, Jordan Walden, has only blown one.

Oakland Athletics: In two of his last four outings, Grant Balfour has blown saves. It has actually been worse than that, as Balfour has pitched 2.1 IPs, allowed six hits, six runs and walked three batters during that span. His ERA rose from 1.50 to 4.72. That said, he’s getting hurt by more HRs than should be expected and he’s walking a few more batters. While there’s a small decline in his fastball velocity, his swinging strike percentage remains constant. The Athletics need Balfour to close to trade him, so he is in no immediate danger of losing the chance at saves. His manager said as much after Tuesday’s debacle. However, he will likely get traded or demoted after the trade deadline if the A’s can’t move him, which would give Ryan Cook save chances. A lot can happen between now and then, but he’s worth a stash. Cook, just 24, came over in the Trevor Cahill trade. He has always walked a ton of people, but, at least, he’s posted great K-rates along the way, and, so far, a hot-air balloon-sized walk rate hasn’t hampered him. At the end of the year, Cook will have 65 K’s, a 3.90 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Update: Fuentes got the save opportunity against Boston in a cushy three-run game last night. He gave up a hit on a weak grounder, an RBI double to Dustin Pedroia but otherwise perfect. Cook pitched the 8th and, until the trade deadline, might be behind Fuentes for save chances. I’d still prefer Cook as the handcuff/speculative add as Fuentes is nothing but a slightly better LOOGY.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: As noted, Scott Downs is now the closer for the Angels. However, everything coming from the Angels seems to suggest this is a temporary move. Downs is doing his best to keep the job and is a short term stash, however the chances he stays the closer all year are probably under 50%. Recently Mike Scioscia said it wouldn’t take long for Walden to rediscover his “mojo” (the media didn’t ask how that 2011 form, which included 10 blown saves, differed from his 2012 form). Walden is also the “future” at closer, so he’ll get some shots unless Downs is just amazing (which he isn’t). In addition, word is the Angels have kicked the tires on a variety of RPs: Joel Hanrahan, Brandon League, Balfour and Huston Street. If the Angels continue to scuffle and the bullpen gets painted as the culprit, expect the Angels to make a cosmetic move to make up for it. If you can trade Walden or Downs, that makes sense. If not, hold them and hope Albert Pujols decides to be El Hombre.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Sometimes actions speak louder than words and sometimes they don’t. Don Mattingly gave Kenley Jansen all the save chances over the weekend, while a seemingly rested Javy Guerra was available. Jansen, because he’s one of the best relievers in baseball, acquitted himself quite well. Then, of course, in a tight game in the ninth against the Rockies, Mattingly went to Guerra who pitched a decent frame. Guerra has allowed 10 hits over his last 3 innings and has a 5.56 ERA. Still, Guerra will get most of the easy saves and a few of the toughies. Given Jansen’s ability and decent shot at double digit saves, he’s worth owning everywhere. In addition, I’d try to work a trade for Jansen based on Guerra’s latest save.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura has put himself in a corner with this Hector Santiago business. While he maintains Santiago is the closer, Matt Thornton recently got save opportunities against lefty-heavy/tough line-ups. Santiago was then given an inning of work on Tuesday, put three batters on base and narrowly escaped without allowing a run. He hasn’t pitched in a high leverage spot since April 25. At the moment, the rosiest glasses picture Santiago on the good side of a platoon with Thornton. Of course, Thornton gave up a couple of runs, including a HR to lefty Travis Hafner last night. Meanwhile, Addison Reed is straight killing it. Go all in on Reed, as he’ll emerge quickly as the guy who gets 80% of the save chances during the season. For those of you in dynasty leagues or intense save formats, check out Dylan Axelrod. From my Wikipedia research, that is not a made-up name. Axelrod has been a starter in recent history and has shown he can control the strike-zone.Ventura first chose his fourth best reliever to close, so stranger things have already happened.

New York Mets: I continue to maintain that the only thing that will stop Frank Francisco from closing all year is his health. Of course, he now has a bizarre hamstring issue that the Mets are claiming is a result of dehydration because of their trip to Colorado. That sounds fishy, but, according to Terry Collins, Francisco was available on Tuesday. Frank Franc hasn’t pitched since April 29 when he got the awesome blown save-win, and, before that, he converted two saves in a row. Since the 29th, the Mets haven’t won a game, but Jon Rauch and Bobby Parnell have pitched well. Given how bad the Mets are, speculation on this bullpen is near fruitless. I wouldn’t mind betting on Parnell in a league where most middle relievers are owned.

Minnesota Twins: Has there been more ink wasted on anything as useless as the Twins closer situation? Matt Capps has been horrible but hasn’t pitched in a high leverage spot since April 23 and hasn’t had a save opportunity since April 20. Startlingly, Capps hasn’t actually blown a save this season and is a perfect 4/4. Meanwhile, popular handcuff Glen Perkins is off to a tough start as well. If you’re in a dynasty league that can stash minor leaguers, check out Deolis Guerra. I know, “another Guerra,” but who doesn’t love war? Besides pacifists, I mean. Guerra earned a quick promotion from AA to AAA and could be in the majors later this year. If there’s a true future closer in the Twins organization, my money is on Guerra.

Miami Marlins: Holy crap, Heath Bell pitched a clean inning in a save opportunity. It should be noted that Edward Mujica got the hold in the game, while the younger Steve Cishek sat on the bench. Bell has a long leash, so if you’re going to burn a roster spot on a pitcher, take the better guy: Cishek.

Pittsburgh Pirates: With the Pirates going nowhere fast, Joel Hanrahan could very well be traded. While Juan Cruz seems like the add, I’d actually bet on Jason Grilli. Grilli has recorded a hold in each of Hanrahan’s saves. In addition, he has been fantastic: posting a 15.0 K:BB rate. He’s not that good (no one is), but he could finish with a 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 70 K’s. If you’re stashing grab Grilli.

San Diego Padres: Huston Street should be traded this year. If he gets moved, Andrew Cashner and Ernesto Frieri are the likeliest to step in a close. I prefer Frieri, who has paired great K-rates with dangerous walk rates. However, you can succeed with high walk rates in Petco (just ask Heath Bell). At the end of the year, I expect a 3.05 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 85 K’s for Frieri. As for Cashner, if you thought Frieri walked a ton of batters, just wait. So far, Cashner has been walking the tight rope with a 6.39 BB/9 rate. At the end of the year, he’ll have a 3.60 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 68 K’s. In addition, Cashner was acquired to start, not relieve. Consequently, there shouldn’t be much pressure on the Padres to put Cashner in that role, while Frieri could be the “closer of the future.”

Seattle Mariners: Tom Wilhelmsen is about nine months younger than Brandon League. You would think either would be available at the trade deadline. Naturally, if League is dealt, Wilhelmsen is the man. He is off to a good start, increasing his strike-outs and improving his command. He’ll be good for 75 K’s, a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Given his skill set and K potential, he’s worth owning right now.

Colorado Rockies: Rafael Betancourt blew a save in rather spectacular fashion yesterday: he allowed two runs on two hits and two walks. He did strike-out the side, so there’s that. His ERA sits at 2.45 after the disastrous outing, so there’s not much to be seen here.  Both Matt Belilse and Rex Brothers had their problems as well.

Tampa Bay Rays: Kyle Farnsworth is on the 60 day DL and Fernando Rodney is dealing. What is the world coming to?

Name BS Name BS
Heath Bell

3

Francisco Rodriguez

1

Alfredo Aceves

2

Frank Francisco

1

Brad Lidge (DL)

2

Glen Perkins

1

Brandon League

2

Greg Holland (DL)

1

Carlos Marmol

2

Henry Rodriguez

1

David Hernandez

2

J.J. Putz

1

Francisco Cordero

2

Jason Motte

1

Grant Balfour

2

Joaquin Benoit

1

Hector Santiago

2

Joe Nathan

1

Javier Lopez

2

Joel Peralta

1

Javy Guerra

2

Jon Rauch

1

Kevin Jepsen

2

Jonathan Broxton

1

Matt Belisle

2

Jordan Walden

1

Rex Brothers

2

Jose Valverde

1

Scott Downs

2

Kenley Jansen

1

Sergio Santos (DL)

2

Marc Rzepczynski

1

Andrew Cashner

1

Mariano Rivera

1

Brian Fuentes

1

Matt Lindstrom

1

Chris Perez

1

Pedro Strop

1

Clay Hensley

1

Ramon Ramirez

1

Darren Oliver

1

Sean Marshall

1

Edward Mujica

1

Tyler Clippard

1

Wilton Lopez

1

Vinnie Pestano

1

Evan Legwrongia

May 02, 2012 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 358 Comments →

Evan Longoria is out for 6 to 8 weeks.  Let’s look on the bright side.  According to our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater, Longoria has been less valuable than Encarnacion and Aviles at 3rd base.  On the less bright side, those guys have been really, really good.  Okay, that bright side argument didn’t play out so well.  Let’s try again.  On the bright side, I told everyone to draft Longoria and drafted him myself, so you can point at me and say how screwed I am.  On the less bright side, if you’re reading this, there’s a chance you listened to me and drafted Longoria too.  Okay, last try.  In the 6 weeks he will miss, Longoria would’ve gave you around 8 homers and 30 RBIs with a .300 average.  You can get that off waivers from Pedro Alvarez or Chris Davis (if all those coins I just dumped into a wishing well mean anything).  Did I just try to convince myself that Pedro Alvarez was going to give me the same stats as Longoria?  Wow, glad I haven’t convinced myself anything dangerous like I can fly or I can heal Longoria’s torn hammy by kidnapping him and taking him to St. Petersburg where they filmed Cocoon.  Though I guess taking him to St. Pete couldn’t hurt… Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Moore – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Pull your arms inside, I’m closing the window to buy low on Moore.

Matt Joyce – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 6th homer.  Every year he’s a beast before the All-Star break.  Will someone remind me next February to place Joyce in my top 100 overall?  It sounds like crazy talk, but think about this.  You draft Joyce in the top 100, then someone will underperform on your team when the season starts (Stanton, McCutchen, do I have to continue with the names?) so you trade the underachiever for a different piece and play Joyce.  Then you’ll be winning your league and people will be like how is this schmohawk winning when he took Joyce in the 8th round?

Nolan Reimold – Will miss a few days with a bulging disk — no, that’s not like when you tried to jam a CD into your radio and one was already there.  Reimold says he will be back in a few days, which is pretty much what he’s said for the last week, so he also has a broken record.

Brian Matusz – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  2nd consecutive solid start from Matusz…And his WHIP is still 1.70.  Ma nish ta no thank you as I pass over him.

Chris Davis – 3-for-4, 3 runs and his 5th homer.  See, he’s totally as good as Longoria!  (Or I’m taking my fountain coins back.  All of them Mouth-style.)

J.J. Hardy – 1-for-5 with his 4th homer as he bats .185, which is my weight soaking wet, holding a 20 pound bottle of mayonnaise.

Shin-Soo Choo – Yesterday, Rudy said over IM that he thought they were going to designate for assignment Choo.  Then I remembered his keyboard N doesn’t work.  He meant Chone with an E typo and no N.  Though, DFA’ing Choo didn’t sound as crazy as it should have.  With that said, Choo sat out again yesterday with a tight hamstring and hasn’t played in a week.  If Choo’s hamstrings wrote for Razzball, you’d get a roundup every other week.

Jordan Schafer – Out with an oblique strain.  Just thinking about how weird words are that start with oh-bee.  Oblique, oblong, OB-GYN.  Eh, maybe it’s just me.

Jed Lowrie – 1-for-2 with his 2nd homer in three games.  When Lowrie gets hot, he gets hot schmotato hot, and when he gets cold, it’s because he’s injured.  WHO!  (While Healthy Own.)

Paul Goldschmidt – 3-for-4, I was thinking that his 1-for-3 on Monday might’ve been a sign, but yesterday’s telling me he’s alive.  If an impatient owner dropped him, grab him immediately.  AuShizz is on!

Krispie Young – Took 35 swings yesterday.  Just give me three of your best and get on the field!  Ah fanabla, he’s not due back for a few weeks still.

Trevor Cahill – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  His ERA is now at 3.13.  Aren’t you glad you panicked after his last start?

Jarrod Dyson – 2-for-4, 2 runs out of the leadoff spot.  He also got a steal on Sunday.  If you need steals, I could see grabbing him, but once Cain returns (soon) I’m not sure Dyson will play.  Or maybe I’m just not picking up Dyson because I’m chicken.

Jeff Francoeur – 3-for-4, maybe Frenchy is finally coming out of his season long slump.  If he is, could he bring Hosmer with him?  Thank you.

Rick Porcello – 8 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks, lowering his ERA to 5.64, and raising his “How many times will someone ask in the comments if they should pick up Porcello” quotient to 6.89.

Mike Carp – Activated from the DL.  94% (no math done) of the outfielders on waivers are the Alex Presley type, which leaves only 17% (still no math) of the outfielders giving power.  So if you’re in the lesser quarter percentile (throwing math out the window at this point), I’d grab Carp, or Crap if you’re kinda dyslexic.

Jesus Montero – 4-for-4 with no runs, RBIs or steals.  The Charley Lau Special!

Michael Saunders – 1-for-4 with his 4th home run.  We actually go over Saunders later on today in the podcast.  You can hardly wait!  No, you!

Jason Kipnis – 3-for-4 with a SB.  Now has his AVG up to .280 with 3 HR and 5 SB – good for top 5 in the Player Rater for 2B.  We are Kipnissing history.

Ryan Zimmerman – Says he’s going to return on Sunday.  I’ll file that under “I’ll believe it when I see it.”  It’s filed right after, “If there was celery ice cream, I could eat all I want and still lose calories.”

Bryce Harper – Jumped into a pickup softball game yesterday in Washington.  Softball when you’re not old enough to drink?  That sounds terrible!  Somewhere, Matt Stairs is nodding his head yes.

Jose Iglesias – Recalled by the Red Sox to provide depth as Youuuuuuuuk nurses his big-baby-itis.  Iglesias is a good pick up if your league has a Web Gem category.

Gordon Beckham – 3-for-4 including his 1st HR of the year.  One more of those and someone’s gonna have a big boy average (.200+).

Yadier Molina – 2-for-5 with 3 runs and 2 SBs.  Other catchers are having great years but Yadier is #1 on the player rater for catchers and it’s not that close.  He must’ve kept some of Pujols’s mojo.

Cory Luebke- Will be skipped with a sore elbow.   As frequent commenter, royce! said, “With Luebke being hurt, the Padres get to show off their minor league depth and call up… Jeff Suppan?  I’m thinking a sad trombone would work here, but a “trombone being kicked in the nuts” would be more appropriate.”

Jonny Venters – 2/3 IP, 2 ER as he blew Beachy’s quality start (7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks).  Fredi Gonzalez said Venters’s punishment is having to throw another 120 games in a row.

Curtis Granderson – 2-for-3 with his 9th home run.  Okay, but Stanton has 10 RBIs, so there!

Kelly Johnson – 2-for-3, 4 RBIs and his 5th homer.  I’ll be honest, I don’t know what every player is currently doing.  Johnson was one of those I wasn’t sure about.  So someone asked if they should drop him the other day and I looked at his stats.  This guy you want to drop?  I’d give you Cano’s stats for Kelly Johnson’s stats right now.  Actually, I’ll give you Longoria, Cano and Stanton’s stats if you want them.  Kelly Johnson has more RBIs than Bautista right now.  Oh, and I like Aaron Hill right now too.  Danny Espinosa, not so much.  He looks like the turd that my ex-girlfriend put in my bed in college.  A story you can read all about in my e-book!

Adam Lind – 0-for-4 with one homer on the year as he bats .203.  This ship sailed and then sunk.

Jemile Weeks – 2-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and his 5th steal.  Holding the mirror to his nose, and it faintly fogs up.

Grant Balfour – 1/3 IP, 2 ER and his fifth earned run in his last two appearances.  As the closerousel turns… I’d grab Ryan Cook only because I think Brian Fuentes is bad at, ya know, pitching.

Jarrod Parker – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks in Fenway.  Sonavabench!

Pedro Alvarez – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 6th homer.  Only 7 more homers and 27 more RBIs and you will have admirably filled in for Longoria.

Jose Tabata – 1-for-4 with his 1st homer.  He’s also batting over .350 in the last week.  Hey, Tah-bah-ta, Tah-bah-ta, Tah-bah-ta, swing, Tah-bah-ta!

Ubaldo Jimenez – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER– Well, whatever.  You can’t own him anywhere.  Take him and Chacin, give them two Entertainment.com coupons to Souplantation and hope they get food poisoning.

Giancarlo Stanton – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer to keep pace with A.J. Ellis.

Heath Bell – Threw the perfect inning for the save, and the closer leash goes out a hair, but remember it’s retractable.

Jerome Williams – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks as he threw a shutout vs. Minnesota.  Nothing gives pitchers the O face like facing Twins.

Torii Hunter – 2-for-2 with his 2nd homer in as many games, equaling the I’s he dots.

Albert Pujols – 0-for-4.  Now being outhomered by Dee Gordon.  Though Dee Gordon’s homer came off his head as Matt Kemp was swinging him.

Peter Bourjos – Benched for the 4th time in 5 games by the Sciosciapath who has decided not to play a struggling prospect with awesome defense in favor of Vernon Wells.  Peter, welcome to the Doghouse That Napoli built.  The Sciosciapath is going at this all wrong.  He should try to one-up his student, Joe “Infield Shift” Maddon, by playing a two man outfield of Bourjos and Trout and then play five infielders.  “Hey, Maicer, you always wondered what UTIL meant?  It means U stand behind second base ‘TIL I tell you to come back to the dugout.”

Mat Gamel – Left yesterday’s game after running into a fence.  This gives me a great idea.  Baseball stadiums should have no fences.  Only players should wear electric shock collars, so when they get to a certain point in foul territory they’re shocked. Problem solved!

Closer Look

May 01, 2012 By: Grey Category: Closers 405 Comments →

Well, not much has changed for closers since last month when we did a run down of all of them.  Kimbrel got a save, Axford got a save, and everyone else sucks.  Holly Robinson Peete closers are a mess!  I don’t think there’s ever been so many Brain Freezes before.  I almost feel like adding an extra category below the Brain Freezes called, “The Legend of Gloom.”  Wha’ happened?  Did someone poison the bullpen water?  Has Mariano Rivera made it so when he retires there won’t be any more closers?  There will only be starters and “Those Other Guys.”  To recap this month in closing quickly:  Valverde has been less than stellar, Putz and Street just don’t close games, Motte hasn’t been good, Brian Wilson became Casilla who Bochy pulled after one batter during one game, Joel Hanrahananananan gave fantasy owners the question, “Who’s Juan Cruz?”, Sergio Santos may start throwing at some point in the next few weeks, the Red Sox gave the job to someone who has an over 10 ERA, Frank-Frank hasn’t had a blank-blank inning in forever, Kyle Farnsworth left stage right and Rodney, who couldn’t get saves last year, entered stage “I can’t believe Rodney’s closing games,” Guerra’s been about as bad as expected, Walden blew one save and lost the job, What the H. Santiago?, What the H. Bell?, Grant Balfour might get traded, Jim Johnson gave fantasy owners the question, “Juan Cruz or Pedro Strop?  Wait, who?”, the closers on terrible teams have looked good so they’ll probably be traded or just not save games, and Brad Lidge is afraid of heights and the mound is above the field so he went to the DL which is on sea level.  Got all of that?  Yeah, I’m not sure I did either.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Huston Street (+3) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
6. Jim Johnson (+15) (Pedro Strop, Matt Lindstrom)
7. Joel Hanrahan (+4) (Juan Cruz, Jason Grilli)
8. J.J. Putz (-2) (David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw)
9. Jason Motte (-1) (Fernando Salas, Mitchell Boggs)
10. Jose Valverde (-6) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
11. Rafael Betancourt (+7) (Rex Brothers)
12. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen)
13. Fernando Rodney (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
14. Grant Balfour (+6) (Brian Fuentes, Ryan Cook)
15.
Brett Myers (+8) (David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
16. Joe Nathan (+6) (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
17. Kenley Jansen/Javy Guerra (+2) (Matt Guerrier)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

18. Sean Marshall (+3) (Aroldis Chapman, Jose Arredondo)
19.
Santiago Casilla (-10) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
20. Chris Perez
(+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
21.
Matt Capps (+6) (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
22.
Jonathan Broxton (+6) (Aaron Crow)
23. Henry Rodriguez (+6) (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
24. Frank Francisco (-8) (Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Ramon Ramirez)
25. Alfredo Aceves (-13) (Franklin Morales, Daniel Bard)
26. Carlos Marmol (-11) (Rafael Dolis, Kerry Wood)
27. Heath Bell (-19) (Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica)
28. Scott Downs (-11) (Jordan Walden, LaTroy Hawkins)
29. Matt Thornton/Hector Santiago
(-1) (Addison Reed, Jesse Crain)
30. Francisco Cordero (-15) (Casey Janssen, Luis Perez, Sergio Santos, Lloyd Moseby)

The Future of the World (Or At Least Angels and Nats) Saved!

April 30, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball 613 Comments →

Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were called up by their respective clubs this weekend.  When Bryce left Syracuse for his first major league game, the grand opening of the “Eye Black Isn’t Just For The Ultimate Warrior And Owls” store turned into a Going Out of Business sale.  When Mike Trout left Salt Lake for the Angels, Bobby Abreu’s three year Going Out of Business sale came to an abrupt end.  Bobby, “I still have some seven-pitch walks to sell!”  With Trout and Harper called up, the minor leagues were closed.   There’s no more minor leagues.  In his major league debut, Harper looked like all that and a bag of douche.  Who over the age of twelve flips their helmet off when they’re running?  Wait, is he over the age of twelve?  Definitely more auspicious of a debut than Trout’s (or is that inauspicious?).  (NSFWUYWAAPPH (Not Safe For Work Unless You Work At A Porn Production House):  In case you didn’t see it, Harper roped a double to deep center while someone behind home plate dropped their pants.  (Here’s Bryce Harper’s first major league hit in motion.)  I can’t wait to go to Cooperstown in 25 years and see Bryce Harper’s 1st major league hit.   The curator showing a group of middle school kids, “Here’s the film of Babe Ruth calling his shot and here’s Bryce Harper with a booty call.”  In 50 years, Bryce Harper showing his granddaughter, “There’s your PawPaw getting his first major league hit.”  “PawPaw, are you the one with your ass showing?”  “No, sweetheart, that’s how fans celebrated baseball players when I played.  A great time to be alive.”)  Mike Trout, nor the fans behind him, flashed anything.  Whatevs, I like him better for this year.   I went over my Mike Trout fantasy back in November and it mostly still applies.  Only thing I’d change is how many ABs I gave him there.  There I gave him 55/7/30/.270/20 in 300 ABs.  Give him 400 ABs and his stats move to 70/10/40/.275/25.  Basically what you were hoping to get from Bourjos.  That’s giddy up, the un-sarcastic  excitement.  As for Bryce Harper, I like him a lot and he’s worth grabbing.  But he’s also worth trading if you can in redraft leagues.  He hasn’t really pounded minor league pitching since last July.  There were guys on his own minor league roster that were out-performing him.  He’s going to be a great one; I’ll give him that.  I just don’t think once Morse and/or Zimmerman return he’s even going to stay in the majors.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Scott Downs – The Sciosciapath replaced Walden after one blown save.  If only he was as reactionary with over 35-year-old outfielders.  Here’s a scenario:  Downs gets five straight saves and Walden scuffles in a set-up role because his confidence is fractured after being removed from the closer role that quickly.  In that scenario, Downs stays the closer for a few months, maybe the rest of the season.  Another scenario:  Downs blows a game and Walden’s back in there after a week.  More succinctly, you need to hold both guys.  Even more succinctly, hold both.  Personally, I don’t think Sciosciapath’s move is a long-term cure for Scott Downs’ Syndrome.

Peter Bourjos – Didn’t play for the Angels yesterday because of Mike Trout.  Bourjos also didn’t play on my fantasy team, because I cut him immediately when I saw he was losing time to Trout.  Later, schmohawk!  Thanks for the month of the .167 average and 1 homer and 1 steal!   Wish I would’ve known your last name was French for “Bore the crap of youse.”

Albert Pujols – For the first time in his career, Pujols is one day away from having his first homerless month.  Like how Roger Maris’s family followed around McGwire in ’98, Juan Pierre’s family will be following around Pujols.

Kyle Lohse – 6 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Easily his worst start of the year.  Uh-oh, Mr. April may be done.  Hehe.  That’s punny!

Josh Hamilton – Left yesterday’s game with a stiff back, which is less embarrassing than a stiff front.

Tim Hudson – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Pirates.  Not a tough matchup, but I wouldn’t mind Hudson as a 5th fantasy starter on a team.  He usually keeps his ratios in check and does decent with Ks — or simply oK.

Jay Bruce – 4 homers in 4 straight games with yesterday’s being a slam & legs.  BRUUUUUUU + UUUUUUUUUUU + UUUUUUUUUUU = Excitement for Red Square.  Damn, was supposed to equal excitement for Reds outfielder, Jay Bruce.  Think I forgot to carry a U.

Mat Latos – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners (0 Walks), 4 Ks vs. the Asstros.  Latos seems like a guy who asks you at the bar, “Did you say something to me?” like he’s picking a fight even if you didn’t say anything to him.  Not much to like about his ERA so far either (5.97).  I still want to remain patient with him.  He will get better.

Drew Smyly – 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Yankees.  The Emoticon just had a most impressive start on Saturday and has his ERA down for the count of 1.23.  Last week when I said to grab him, it was a bit of a “What the hey, pick him up” waiver wire acquisition.  Now, it’s more of a “What the hey, seriously, pick him up.”  His LOB% is a bit of an eephus that’s about to get smacked, but his K-rate should prevent him from falling too hard.

David Phelps – Will take over for Freddy Garcia in the rotation.  A terrible starter being replaced by a middling middle reliever.  Phelps looks like he might have a 4-ish ERA and a 7-ish K-rate.  Wouldn’t even be news if it was for any team other than the Yankees.  Maybe the Yankees can exact some revenge and trade David Phelps to the Mariners for the rights to Jay Buhner Jr.

Robinson Cano – Batting third for the Yankees for the first month and has 4 RBIs.  Chris Davis got 4 RBIs on Saturday.  The number nine hitter for the Orioles, Andino, has 6 RBIs.  I will now put on a gorilla suit and mail myself to Africa.

Anibal Sanchez – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 14 Ks.  I heard Justin Bieber’s Boyfriend song on the radio, and I immediately thought of Anibal.  No lie.  It’s not gay since his name’s Anibal.  It’s gay that I was listening to Bieber.

Giancarlo Stanton – 1-for-4 with his 1st home run.  Is it bad I actually had to look at three different sites to make sure I was seeing right that he hit a home run?  Yeah, probably.  Now hit nine more tomorrow and we’ll be so cool again.  I’ll even massage your sore knee with my tongue.  What, it’s the strongest muscle!

Josh Johnson – 5 1/3IP, 5 ER.  Obviously got tired of that reputation that he could only pitch well when he was healthy.

Hanley Ramirez – 0-for-3; Jose Reyes – 0-for-3, as they both bat .205 on the year.  Maybe move both of them to 2nd base and let Omar Infante play shortstop and 3rd base.  I’m thinking of creative solutions; don’t kill the messenger.

Max Scherzer – 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 Ks… Why was he pulled so early?  Oh, 14 baserunners in less than 5 innings.  Wow.  It’s nearly mathematical impossible to have 14 baserunners, only record 14 outs and only allow 3 earned runs.  I hate to give up on him and drop him to waivers, but I’d want to see at least one good start on my bench before starting him in any league.

Matt Thornton – Got the save yesterday.  My over/under for Santiago losing the job was the end of April.  Not too shabby.  Yeah, I do think Thornton takes over, at least that’s what I’ve been writing on this site that you are reading, but as of right now Ventura is still saying Santiago’s the closer.  We shall see.  Or not!  Your choice.

Gavin Floyd – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks as he took a no hitter into the 7th vs. the Red Sox.  But the Red Sox have Nick Punto, Marlon Byrd, Ryan Sweeney, Mike Aviles, Cody Ross and Kelly Shoppach in their lineup!  Somehow the Red Sox have been able to bamboozle fantasy owners into thinking they’re good, even though Sweeney, Aviles, Shoppach, Byrd, Ross and Punto are all guys coming from other teams where they were marginal starters.  Right now, the Red Sox lineup looks like cemetery of fallen fantasy value.

Jake Peavy – 9 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If you Google “resurgence,” you’re going to find five articles about Jake Peavy and five about al-Qaeda.  Of those ten articles, 2 mention selling Peavy, 3 mention buying him and 10 mention injuries.

Edwin Encarnacion – Three games in a row with a homer and capped this three-peat (trademark Pat Riley) with a slam & legs yesterday.  I’m really happy for all his owners.  I’m not bitter at all.  I’ll probably get Edwin’s as-of-right-now stats (7 homers, 4 steals) from Ryan Zimmerman by August.  The RZ:  Brand new from Toyota.  Flashy exterior and tons of hype, then, as soon as you drive it off the lot, you regret the purchase and it breaks down for 5 months.

Jose Bautista – 1-for-4 with his 2nd steal as he sits on 3 homers for the year while Omar Infante struts around like Buddy Love.

Kenley Jansen – Got two saves this weekend.  Mattingly’s saying some shizz about Guerra needing a rest.  I’ll say Mattingly needs to give that a rest.  Mattingly seems like the type that can’t admit he was wrong (or so says his Rip Torn-ish looking, mugshot-taking ex-wife), so he may pull one of these deals where he never says Jansen is now the closer, but Jansen just starts getting saves until it’s obvious he’s the closer.

Chris Capuano – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  What’s this the longest post ever?  Maronna mia!  Yeah, I’d pick up Capuano.  Solid Ks in a good pitchers’ park.

Wade Miley – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He’s pitching above his head right now.  Well, he’s not a sidearmer.  Cute, Random Italicized Voice.  I mean, he can’t keep this up.  That’s what she said!  What?  Miley has NL-Only appeal for now, but I’d be careful in mixed leagues.

Gerardo Parra – 2-for-3 with a steal.  You know who Parra is playing like right now?  A guy that is getting a chance to play and wants to prove himself, i.e., he’s building a wall of stats to fend off any other Diamondback options, a *pinkie to mouth* Parra-pet.

Patrick Corbin – He was the pitcher the Diamondbacks called up for Monday’s start, relegating Collmenter to shoveling crap out of the bullpen.  “Hey, Shaw, will you stop pooping on the bullpen mound?”  “Why, we got Collmenter now.”  That was overheard in the D-Backs bullpen this weekend.  Corbin had a solid K/BB and could surprise some major league hitters.  The downside is he’s 15 years old (22) and probably is just a placeholder for Bauer or Skaggs.  BTW, Bauer and Skaggs opened for Big & Rich.  Their big song, “Save a Morse, Ride a LaRoche.”

Dexter Fowler – At four homers, he has 2 more homers than steals.  Fowler also weighs the same as one of Stanton’s thighs.  Cust killin’ myself.

Frank Francisco – Blew the save yesterday as the closepocalypse sweeps through the Mets.  Jesse Orsoco’s house fell on top of Frank Francisco’s legs and Ram-Ram got the save.  I don’t think a change of closer is imminent here, but that’s more because the Mets’ other options haven’t been great and my brain can only compute 17 closer changes per roundup.  Overload!  Overload!  Red alert!  Let me off the closerousel!

Tim Lincecum – 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks cutting his ERA to about half what it was two weeks ago.  Sure, this game was against the Padres, who had one good hitter coming into this year and he’s now batting under .200 and in the 7th hole and his name rhymes with Maynotbeasgoodasyouthoughtbin, but I’m guessing it’s too late to buy low on Lincecum.

Wilson Betemit – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in his last three games as he played third and made Reynolds’ excuse, “It’s not me, it’s 3rd base,” look bad.

Matt Garza – 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 1 Walk, 10 Ks.  You can’t spell Garza without Rza, so you know he got The W with no help from Ol’ Dirty Barney.

Grant Balfour – 0 IP, 3 ER and his 2nd blown save, Matt Capps just gives up runs for S’s and G’s and, while they might not be in the same team, Carlos Marmol seems to be picking up whatever it is that Collmenter is shoveling.  I don’t think any of them are in serious danger of losing their closer jobs (this week).  All three teams are going nowhere fast and they’d be better served to get to the trading deadline with a closer to trade.

Brandon Inge – About to sign with the A’s.  That’ll fix the A’s!  Goodbye, cellar!  There’s gotta be a Moneyball sequel with the little white kid from The Blind Side playing Inge and Don Swayze playing Billy Beane.

Bartolo Colon – 8 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Remarkable turnaround of his career continues since his fat and bone marrow stem cell surgery.  At what point does Bartolo Colon surgery become as prevalent as Tommy John surgery?  It doesn’t seem like you need an injury to get the surgery either.  Get the surgery and you’re just good.  The doctor who did the surgery is out of Boca Raton, the old Jew shuffleboard capital of the world.  Soon we’re gonna have Ira Shlomowitz and Harvey Edelbaum, once legendary mah-jong players, throwing 95 MPH, and asking the home plate ump if they can go to their mouth, not because it’s cold, but because they need to adjust their dentures.  Having their choice of teams to sign with, Ira says, “I think I’m gonna pitch for the Mariners.  Seattle has great herring.”

Closer Look

March 27, 2012 By: Grey Category: Closers 293 Comments →

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16.
Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra
(-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21.
Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22.
Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan
(Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)