Fantasy Baseball Advice

Third base is not getting deeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.  It’s just not.  If Jacques Cousteau played fantasy baseball and was still alive, he wouldn’t even need a snorkel to see the bottom of the 3rd base basin.  Shoot, Jacquese from The Real World: San Diego could probably see the bottom.  There’s guys at the top (Longoria, Wright, Sandoval, Zimmerman, Youuuuuuk, Reynolds, A-Rod and Young).  There’s plenty of schmohawks at the bottom (Cantu, Blake, Lowell).  But there’s not a whole lot of guys at the bottom that could move to the top.  You’re gonna have to deal with it.  After Michael Young, there will be a drop off.  Some of the upside picks at 3rd will be Ian Stewart, Casey McGehee and Gordon Beckham.  Each of those guys will probably get a fantasy baseball keeper or sleeper post dedicated to them.  Today, it’s 2010 fantasy baseball keeper (and sleeper) time as we look at Gordon Shumway Beckham.

In 378 at-bats last year, Gordon Beckham came away with the line of 58/14/63/.270/7.  The Royal We is not going to sit and say add 50 games worth of stats to his numbers and look at how beautiful they are, but it’s fair to say he will get more Runs.  Ozzie hit him 2nd for 218 at-bats.  There’s no reason why that should stop.  So let’s give him 85 Runs.  Since we can’t have our ice cream and cake and cake and eat it too, I’m not going to give him any more RBIs.  If he’s batting 2nd, he’s not also batting 8th. (It’s impossible; LaRussa tried it briefly with Pujols.)  Beckham stole more bases when he hit 2nd than anywhere else in the order.  (Not many, but still it is true.)  So let’s say he gets 14 steals.  He did steal 18 bases in his last year of college, so it’s not a huge termite-infested limb we’re traipsing out onto.  He hit more homers from the two hole.  Not sure what lineup protection he actually got from the middle of the White Sox order, but let’s assume he did.  So let’s give him 18 homers.  Seems pretty conservative.  I like that.  Less you expect, less you’re disappointed.  He strikes out a decent amount and he’s prone to slumps.   Average can come down from .270.  Doesn’t have to, but can.  Let’s assume it does.  Again, less expectations.  Okay, so we have a 2010 line of 85/18/63/.260/14.  That’s a top 10 3rd baseman with upside for a bit more.  I love you, Gordon Beckham even if you sound British and their teeth aren’t the best.

Alfonso Soriano is out indefinitely with knee problems.  Backdate this news three months.  Al-So is beginning to look like every bit of his Latin 33 age.  A real *pinkie to mouth* Al-so ran.  I’d drop Soriano in all leagues.  So it’s Jakie Foxx time, right?!  Since Soriano’s been gone, Sam Fuld (no power, light speed) got two starts, Bobby Scales (minor league journeyman) got two starts, Fox hasn’t had one start.  In other news, Jake Fox slept with Piniella’s wife.  As for Grady Sizemore… Early last week I said Sizemore’s injury would shut him down sooner than later.  Sooner happened over the weekend.  Grady’s done for the season and the Indians will go with Michael Brantley.  Hey, ain’t that the guy from Riverdance? Nope, but he also has quick feet.  Like Ron LeFlore, Brantley could provide some cheap speed.  Right now, he’s batting first and hitting close to .400 since his call up.  If there’s room in your bottle, there’s your lightning.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Iannetta – The Rockies announced Torrealba will be their starting catcher.  I.e., the Rockies finally gave up on Iannetta.  So bad, so sad.

Johnny Cueto – 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks.  Now has two solid games back from his Disgraceful List stint.  While he has a name like a high school bully character from an 80s movie (Shut up, geek!), Cueto could have decent value in the last month.

Jay Bruce – Should return from his DL stint on Tuesday.  If he’s out there, I’d grab him, but don’t expect a miracle.  Bruce had three hits on Saturday in Triple-A, but Dusty Baker said, “There is more to being ready than just hits.”  Hmm… Maybe that’s why the Reds are dead last in the major leagues in hits.

Drew Stubbs – HR yesterday.  Now has 4 homers in the last seven games with one steal.  Has 23 Ks and 25 hits since his call up.  That’s Dusty Ball!

Tim Hudson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks vs. Reds.  See above for why this was a terrific match-up.

Jeremy Guthrie – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks.  I had a brief love affair with Guthrie last year.  It ended poorly in the beginning of this year, but then last month I saw he threw a solid game and I texted him that I was glad he was back on track.  He responded with “Thx.”  I hate when people abbreviate thanks.  They should respond with, “I don’t appreciate you enough to write out thanks.”  Then Guthrie threw another good game and another and another.  We may not be on the best of terms and the Orioles schedule is ugly in September, but if you’re really hurting, Guthrie has four straight solid starts and might have more in the tank.

Derek Holland – 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER A.K.A. why I wouldn’t trust Holland this year.

Leo Nunez – No outs recorded, 3 ER.  Now has blown two games in his last three opportunities.  May lose some save chances in the near future, but, unfortunately, Lindstrom hasn’t been much better.  Maybe Kiko Calero takes his awesome sounding name and does something with it.  Though, I doubt it.

Ryan Franklin – 1/3 IP, 2 ER as he blew his 1st save since June.  Normally, that would mean he’s as secure as they come, but the Cards can’t afford to lose games in the ninth and I’d imagine LaRussa will have another guy warming up as Franklin takes the mound next time.

Wade Davis – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks.  Might have a solid couple of starts in his arm for this month, but he can roofie you at any time.  Eric Karabell calls that high risk, high reward.  He’s so smart!

Fernando Rodney – Got two days off on Saturday and Sunday.  Leyland’s saying it was just some rest in the long season.  I think it’s because Rodney fired a 97 MPH fastball into the press box after saving Friday’s game.  Incredibly, members of the press were able to make a split second decision to leave the nachos and duck.  Lyon may have some appeal if you’re hurting for saves.

J.P. Howell – No outs recorded, 1 ER.  More disconcerting, Grant Balfour opened the ninth in a save situation.  Howell then entered to face a lefty, then gave way to Russ Springer, who gave up the grand slam to Brandon Inge.  It’s a closerousel, and the Tampa closer is Grant P. Springler.

Gordon Beckham – Sat out yesterday with a sore side.  He should be back in a few games to make his run at .250 while hitting a homer every fifth game.

Krispie Young – 3 HRs yesterday.  Now he just needs to get 20 homers and 20 steals while batting .600 the rest of this month to salvage his season.

Cole Hamels – 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks.  On the bright side, he should be a relative bargain next year.

Seth Smith – 2 HRs, giving him 4 in the last five games as he hits near .600 in the last week and his Grandpappy settled Jamestown.

Carlos Gonzalez – HR yesterday.  He’s hitting near .400 in the last week with 3 homers and 3 steals.  Like Kyle Blanks’s afro, CarGo’s well rounded.

Doug Fister – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks and a no decision.  Confession:  I’m way under my innings limit in one league, so I gambled on Fister.  Plus, I always dreamed of having someone with a porn name on my team.

Brad Hawpe – The Rockies scored 13 runs and Hawpe went 0-for-3 with 2 runs.  Ticker Tease!

Pablo Sandoval – 1-for-3, and 3 walks, which is the same amount of walks he got in all of April.  In the same game, a triple play.  Obviously, there was two full moons in Milwaukee yesterday.

Randy Ruiz – Hit in the cheek with a pitch.  The cheek you pinch if you’re an Italian mother, not the cheek you pinch if you’re Italian who drives an IROC.  Ruiz will probably miss a few games.  After the game, he said, “I’m fine now.  Nothing growing up in New York City that I haven’t experienced.”  I grew up in New Jersey.  There you get hit by the strong stench of Drakkar.

The Flying Molina Brother, who likes his seconds, is dealing with a sore quad (only one, not four – weird!).  So the Giants called up Buster Posey yesterday.  Well, ain’t that a kick in the shin pads?  He wasn’t supposed to get the call and I don’t think he sees much time this year to make a difference in one year leagues.  It’s keepers where you wanna grab him immediately.  Sabean’s already said Fat Molina is on his way out of The Bay after this season.  Buster Posey should get every opportunity to win the job in spring training of 2010.  I wouldn’t expect anything, but he’s capable of 14 homers and a .300 average if he gets the job from jump street.  In the non-perverse way, I’ll touch on him many more times during the offseason.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Wade Davis – Being called up to start Sunday vs. the Yanks. Davis is a decent flier for AL-Only leagues and deep mixed ones.  I wouldn’t expect more than a 4.50 ERA and 7 K/9 the rest of the way, and vs. the Yanks isn’t a great one to begin with.  Literally.  He was broken down in detail here. –> Wade Davis Fantasy <– There

Jake Peavy – Chances of him pitching this year have gone from slim to anorexic.

Michael Young – Out at least two weeks.  I’d drop him in leagues where space is limited and you can’t fit any more overhead, useless baggage.

Joe Nathan – 2/3 IP, 4 ER as Kevin Gregg chloroformed Nathan pre-game and did the ol’ switcheroo.

Brian Duensing – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  Scroll down to yesterday’s roundup and read what I wrote about Manship.  Same applies.  Go ahead, scroll.  Just moving your eyes down isn’t going to work.  You need to scroll.  Oh, forget it.

Gordon Beckham – HR yesterday.  Now has back-to-back games with homers.  Also, he hasn’t recorded more than two hits in a game in two weeks.  Adam Dunn throws him his jersey, “I like your style, kid.”

Drew Stubbs – HR yesterday.  This is actually kinda comical.  Not a funny comical, but more like “This is worse than watching Eyes Wide Shut on basic cable” painfully comical.  I grabbed Stubbs in leagues where I don’t need power but need steals.  He’s hit three homers in the last four games.  It’s like ten thousand spoons and all you need is a knife.

Carlos Marmol – No Cuddle Boy here as he continues to convert the saves he’s getting.

Adam Jones – Close the curtains on the hot box, Jones looks like he’s done for the season.  Grab Felix Pie! (<–last reminder until tomorrow)

Kevin Correia – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  In Petco vs. the Nats B lineup.  What does a Nats B lineup consist of, you ask.  Ryan Zimmerman defected in his pants and Riggleman hung it up as his lineup card.  Pete Orr hit 5th (.245 in Triple-A) and Justin Maxwell (.242 in Triple-A), Willie Harris (.222 in majors) and Jorge Padilla (Latin 30) in the outfield.   Razztastic!

Jim Johnson – Zero innings, 5 ER.  Kazaam!

Nolan Reimold – 5 for his last 7 with a homer yesterday.  I’m watching to see if he gets hot, so you don’t have to.  You’re welcome.

Rick Porcello – 7 IP, 2 ER in just 80 pitches.  Tigers are watching his innings and he can/should be shutdown any day now.

Mariano Rivera – Day-to-day with a strained groin.  That was my story from ages 13-19.

Josh Hamilton – Has dealt with back pain before and yesterday he had a relapse.  What, bad choice of words?  He says he’ll return on Friday.

Brad Penny – 8 IP, 0 ER.  After the game, he was seen talking to Cliff Lee.  They high-fived, saying, “NL!”

Josh Beckett – 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 Ks.  Actually, not a terrible start.  Sure, you expect more from Beckett, but I’d take 9 Ks in 6 innings every day of the week and twice of Muesday.

Carl Crawford – HR yesterday.  Hitting .311, 13 homers and 55 steals.  Great, terrific, wonderful!  I’ll go into it more in the offseason, but I think he’s going to be overvalued in 2010.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 2 ER.  Oh, and he’s a Cy Young contender.  Zoinks!

Franklin Morales/Huston Street/Rafael Betancourt – Morales notched the save for the Rockies.  Was just a case of Street being used too much…. For the last five months.  Huston Street has bicep(s) tendinitis.  UPDATE:  Rockies are saying Morales will be the closer.

Felix Hernandez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks vs. the Angels.  F-Her strong, but not in the Big A.

Scott Kazmir – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  If you can’t get traded to the NL, the AL West isn’t a terrible consolation.

Garrett Jones – Another homer yesterday for Robot Jones.  Compliments of frequent commenter, Mgeoffriau, “In honor of Isaac Asimov, Will Smith, and Tom Brady’s ex, I present the 3 Laws of Robot Jones:

(1) Robot Jones must always hit home runs.
(2) Robot Jones must always steal more bases than expected.
(3) Robot Jones must always talk in a creepifying, flat tone that reminds everyone that you can’t trust a robot.

The Mets infirmary added a new member yesterday with Johan Santana complaining of elbow soreness.  M-E-S-S… Mess, Mess, Mess…  I can’t remember another team that has been this Kotchman-bitten.  Now pitching for the New York Mets… Angel Pagan.  He will also lead-off.  I don’t think in spring training when the Mets promised no September collapse they anticipated a June collapse.  Johan Santana may need surgery.  Or maybe he can return.  If you were the Mets, would you press your luck and hope for no whammy?  I mean this is more common sense than ‘pert sense.  Don’t do anything drastic until we hear more, but, as with anything Mets related this season, plan for the worse.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jeff Francoeur – Ligament tear in his thumb.  Frenchy’s toast?  This free swinger says to ball gag that thought.  Francoeur thinks he can continue to play.  It may be financially motivated… Oh, who are we kidding?  No one owns him.

Billy Wagner – Will stay with the Mets.  Anyone wanna take bets that he’ll be examined by a doctor for an injury by next Thursday?

Chris Davis – I mentioned him briefly in the September call ups post-a-ma-thingie yesterday.  He’ll get opportunities to be better than earlier in the year.  Can Davis provide you with some pop?  Um, yeah.  He can hit 10 homers in September alone.  Will he?  Sorry, the Magic Eight Ball’s in the shop.  He’s worth a flier if you need power.  Hank Blalock’s value will probably take the biggest hit with the Davis recall, but Blalock was hurting his own value anyway.

Pablo Sandoval – Left yesterday’s game in the 3rd with a tight calf.   If he were on the Mets, he’d be out for the year, which is to say he’s day-to-day.

Freddy Sanchez – Could be headed to the DL with a sore shoulder.  The same sore shoulder I could’ve told the Giants front office about prior to them trading away Tim Alderson for Sanchez.

Ryan Howard – 2 HRs yesterday and 7 homers in the last ten games.  The first homer was an opposite field shot where he was jammed and had no business hitting it out.  Somewhere, Frank Howard is requesting a paternity test.

Cliff Lee – 7 IP, 2 unearned runs, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Against the Mets lineup, the two unearned runs were probably a ticker shock to some.

Jose Contreras – 2 2/3 IP, 6 unearned runs.  Hey, Cliff, that’s not a ticker shock, this is a ticker shock.  Contreras heads to the bullpen and Peavy will probably take his Saturday start.

Gordon Beckham – HR yesterday.  He has been going through the usual rookie difficulties recently as he hits near .150 in the last week or so (<– now that’s some exact calculations!).  But he still has a few homers this month and 8 on the year.  I can’t wait to see where February Grey is going to rank him for 2010.  If I had to take a guess, I’d say around 150 with a blurb talking about how Beckham can outperform that draft spot.  Just as I was writing that, February Grey peeked his head in my office to say, “You don’t know me at all.”

Yovani Gallardo – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks and 4 flippin’ walks.  How about someone sign up Yovani, Kershaw and Scherzer for Be A Twinkie Fantasy Camp hosted by control freak, Brad Radke?

Scott Baker – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Now has a 12-7 record and hasn’t lost in almost two months though his ERA is at 4.47.  That immediately sent me looking up one thing — Run Support.  He has the 11th best in the majors with over 8 runs/game.  Cust kayin’.

Jason Frasor – Hasn’t pitched in almost a week and is being bothered by shoulder tendinitis, which may speed up Downs’s save chances.

Ben Zobrist – Hit his 4th homer in the last six games.  Kiss your imaginary girlfriend goodbye, cause I’m about to blow your mind.  At 2nd base, Zobrist has been more valuable this year than Kinsler.

Jason Marquis – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Sure, it was vs. the Giants, but Marquis has a 3.47 ERA on the year.  Incredible.

Roy Halladay – 6 IP, 7 ER.  After the game, Halladay was seen mumbling, “I coulda been in the NL.”

Randy Ruiz – Hit his 4th homer in 46 ABs since his call-up.  He’ll be exploited at some point but until then he can give you some pop.

Jason Giambi – Giambi sat down with his family to discuss his future, but they were unable to come to a decision.  Later that night, Giambi fell asleep on the couch.  In his dreams, the dwarf hooker from the movie, Orphan, greeted him with a pamphlet.  That pamphlet’s title, Choose Your Own Career Path.  Inside, there were two options.  1. Retire  2. Before you fade into oblivion, latch onto a team and become a pinch hitter.  Giambi woke in a sweat.  His wife asked if he had to do number two and Giambi rapidly nodded, he did.

Jake Peavy is due back August 28th.  Member when I told you to drop him?  Yeah, that was so two months ago.  We’re in August, check your Mr. Winkle calender.  It’s a brand new day, Sting.  We gotta update you when you you have to pick him up, too?  (That’s a Royal we since this is just me.  Rudy’s in Prague doing spy business.  Ooh, I’m a spy, no time for Razzball for two weeks. Okay, Rudy… Or as I shall call you, Bill Clinton.)  So what can we expect of Jake Peavy when he returns?  Dominance in 30 minutes or less?  Probably not.  I’d put his line at 7 starts, a 4 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP with good Ks.  He’s dealing with a tougher league, but he’s also dealing with guys who don’t know him as well, though he’s also dealing with a shizzy ballpark, unless you’re Gavin Floyd. — Recently overheard convo between Buehrle and Danks, “If I’m not pitching well, and you’re not pitching well.  Who’s pitching well?”  “Uh-oh, Gavin Floyd!”  — With all of the unknown factors happening right now with Peavy — Will he return?  Will he be good? Will his robot foot hold up? — It’s worth a flier to grab him because his price tag is way below what he can give you.  Just don’t bet too heavily on him.  He may have a setback and not show up until October.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Will Venable – Don’t cha love Padres hitters?  They’re like other team’s hitters without the messy HRs, RBIs and Runs to worry about.  Venable’s been hot.  What, you don’t like hot?  I expect you’re going to want to drop Venable by the middle of August, but worth a week grab. (I used to try for the “weak grab” back in college.  The girls would retaliate with the “strong slap.”  Good times!)

Ty Wigginton – From August 1st to August 30th, give Wiggy one more chance.

Jim Johnson – Sure would be nice to see him get a save so we know it’s even him I should be touting.  I mean, I’m pretty sure it is, but ya never know.  I’d also be holding Danys Baez too, just in case.

Alex Gordon – Hitting near .300 since his return and he just hit his first homer since April 15th.  How’s dem apples?!  Yeah, not very delicious.  But if you’re hurting at CI, you can do worse.  Maybe!

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee stars in, “The MI That Won’t Go Away,” with Claude Rains.  Razzball’s Buy/Sell’s going all noir on yo’ ass!  <– You might remember that line from MC Dark Shadows’s most famous song, “Fred MacMurray’s Macking Your Wife.”

Rajai Davis – SAGNOF!  Oh, and not just any SAGNOF.  We’re talking Bourn-type numbers in a very affordable off-waivers price tag.  It’s a steals for clunkers-type deal.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 2 homers and over .400 in his last seven games.  When I say, As… You say, Drubal…  As… Drubal… As… Drubal… As… You got it.

Neftali Feliz – Guy’s sick, but not sick as in ill, but sick as in healthy.  But he’s still just a middle reliever, so I don’t suggest you grab him in every league, but if you need a little relief — hehe — go for it.

Elijah Dukes – If he has a solid final two months, prepare yourself for every fantasy site telling you he’s a sleeper next year, until he’s no longer a sleeper.  Cust kayin’.

Matt Lindstrom – We now begin our portion of the program of middle relievers that may be closing by this time next week.

Mike Gonzalez – Soriano could lose the job any second now.

Yusmeiro Petit – Show me a -eiro, named Busta!  What, no LONS fans in the Razzpound?  Maybe Yusmeiro took the -eiro power from Pineiro, maybe he gets shelled next time out like the latter -eiro.  In certain leagues, I’d gamble on Petit (namely H2H ones), but keep your caveats in check.

Ryan Roberts – Johnny, who’s the MI schmohawk behind door number three?  Ryan Roberts!!!  The crowd looks around, “Should we cheer?”  One guy stands up and screams, “I want Clint Barmes to get hot again!”  With the help of her granddaughter, an older woman stands, “You and your (bleeping) Barmes!  Shut the *bleep* up!”  A chair flies.  A melee ensues.

SELL

Tom Gorzelanny – Don’t let a Cubs fan get in your ear telling you they’ve stumbled on something with Gorzelanny.  His solid game was vs. the Reds.  Gorzelanny needs to do it for another month before I consider owning him next year.

Randy Wells – Had a 120 IP last year, and he’s already at 120 this year with the minors and majors combined.  This has nothing to do with his stuff, but the Cubs should start limiting his innings/skipping his starts soon.  Lesser Known Fact of the Day:  His middle name is David.

Jarrod Washburn – I’m pretty sure his ESPN ownership numbers and his suddenly poor pitching are directly related.  He gets over 50% owned, he gets dusted like Tom Joad.

Gordon Beckham – Let’s get it out of the way right off the bat, I don’t think you should trade him for a bottle of Mad Dog 20/20.  I like Beckham.  I think he can be solid.  But here’s the thing, CBS wrote a cover story on him, ESPN gave him some pub….  (Bee tee dubya, I was the first one to go for the side of the barn title of, Buy It Like Beckham.  Since then, I’ve seen Hit It… Break In… and Rake It…  Just remember who’s setting the trends on layup titles.  Also, take a second and look at that Buy/Sell link.  I could sit here and tell you the numbers Beckham’s done since July 3rd, but I’ll let your eyes dance through those stats on your own time.)  People are starting to realize how good Beckham’s been in the last month plus (over .400, 4 homers, 3 steals).  In one year leagues, has he been that much better than, say, Asdrubal Cabrera?  No, not really.  Gordon Beckham will be one of my favorites for next year, but this year, he’s still just a rookie trying to get his swerve on while hitting the slurve.  If someone overvalues Beckham, fleece ‘em, North Face.