Fantasy Baseball Advice

Gordon Beckham, the pride of Surrey, wrote little ol’ me a letter last week.  It went on for three pages and his penmanship left a lot to be desired, but let me share with you an excerpt.  “Hey, Grey, Gordo here.  I’m probably not going to be that great for an extended period of time in 2009.  But I appreciate you supporting my efforts.  Please share with your readers my plate disclipine and above-average speed.  I’m probably nothing more than a doubles hitter right now with the occasional dinger (the word dinger makes me giggle).  I don’t want to toot my own horn (though if I could, I’d never leave the clubhouse), but when you look at other MIs in your fantasy league, am I really that much worse?  As the President of the Debate Club, I once argued in favor of keeping Ben Grieve over Roy Halladay, so what do I know?”  Thanks, Gordo!  I think he covered everything.  At MI, ride the white lightning.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Casey McGehee – When I grow up, I wanna be just like Casey McGehee.  Be touted relentlessly by me and do just okay in the major leagues.  You wanna be fair?  Okay, let’s be fair.  McGehee is a serviceable MI.  He’s not winning you leagues.  But without serviceable MIs, our great sport wouldn’t be nearly as proud.

Martin Prado – I rank them Beckham, McGehee then Prado, in that order.  And that’s me figuring someone’s gonna ask me that in the comments!

Pat Burrell – You would think A) I actually like Burrell. B) He’s done something to warrant being included in back-to-back Buy/Sells. C) There’s no C.  D) Why would there be a D if there’s no C?

Marlon Byrd – He went 22/4/20/.393/2 last August.  When the weather heats up in Texas, the caged Byrd sings.

Chad Gaudin/Kevin Correia – This Hodgepadre of starters are worth owning and starting, at least, at home.

Jason Hammel – He’s the inverse of the Gaudin/Correia daily double.  Start him in Away games.

Dallas Braden – Hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in his last seven starts.

Ty Wigginton – Hit a homer two days ago. Exciting, right?  Now what if I told you he just played his fifth game at shortstop?  Ah, now your wheels are turning.

Garrett Jones – A Pirates has-been rookie? Please, Grey, I had Mexican for lunch. I know, random italicized voice.  Not all that attractive.  But in deep leagues, he’s worth a flier to see what he does with playing time.  He can’t be much worst than Delwyn Young.  But Delwyn Young sucks! That’s sorta my point.

Leo Nunez – Owned in 6.7% of ESPN leagues.  That means about 93.3% of ESPN leagues are abandoned.

SELL

Torii Hunter – He’s at 17/13.  He’ll get to 27/22.  My gratutity calculator is telling me if you own Hunter, you’ve gotten more production from him than you will if you continue to hold him. No one’s saying to sell him for Felipe Paulino and an old TV Guide cover with Kermit and Miss Piggy, but I’d explore options.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Hey, he had a good run.  Not this year.  This year he was terrible.  He had a good run last year.  I wouldn’t own him this year with your team.  If you don’t have room on your DL, lose Dice-BB.

Glen Perkins – No one’s buying Perkins, so this is less a sell, more of an Ignore.  Can’t throw the speedball by anyone.  He could be a participant in my All-Star Game festivities where he faces off against Chris Davis.   The Movable Object vs. The Movable Object.  Whose flaw will be more pronounced?

Vladimir Guerrero – I know in the beginning of the year you Rochambeau’d your buddy to own Vlad, but Guerrero’s being outslugged by Scott Hairston by almost 200 points.  Oh, nuts, Vlad’s bad.  And not bad as in good, but bad as in bad.

Carlos Delgado might as well enjoy a Cocktail or two as he’s the latest member of the new hip injury (double entendre) – the torn labrum.  It took A-Rod two months to come back from this and he’s younger, in better shape, and a bigger poser (not sure how the 3rd point is relevant, just felt like saying it).  If you drafted Delgado, you’ve got to just let him go.  No use clogging up a DL slot except if you’re in a real deep league.  Forget the Mets replacements for now – Tatis, Murphy, Kranepool, etc – as none of them have 1B eligibility.  Hopefully you have another player for the 1B slot and can just grab the best 1B/3B available for cornerman.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rickie Weeks – Weeks’s out-for-the-seasony is epidemic, ya’ll.  Hardy likes to hit 2nd and Hart or Counsell would make sense in the leadoff spot.  If Gamel plays 3rd, Counsell or Hall would be play 2nd.  Hall would get a nice boost in value if he gains 2nd base eligibility, which is to say he would go from no value to some value in deep leagues.  This Weeks injury should be a wake up call for all Blalock owners.  One day he’s hitting homers, the next day he has a root canal that sidelines him indefinitely.  Okay, Weeks, Nomar and Baldelli offer you a ride, but the catch is you can’t wear your seatbelt, do you accept the ride?

Mat Gamel – HR and error yesterday.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  Defense be damned!  Gamel got the start at 3rd.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems like how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the right side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.

Kyle Lohse – 4 IP, 4 ER.  He’s not good.  Wait, do I hear an echo?  Oh, no, that’s just me the last five times he’s pitched.

Scott Richmond – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  Was a good match-up, still not a fan of his going forward.

Ross Detwiler – Was 0-3 with a 2.98 ERA in Double-A.  Sounds like he should be a starter for the Nats!  I wouldn’t go after him outside of NL-Only leagues and even there, I’d want to see more… On someone else’s team.

Joel Hanrahan – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Hanrahanahanananan got Kazaamahamahammed!

Glen Perkins – 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Got flapjacked by the Yanks and now is being sent to the Disgraceful List with elbow inflammation.  I don’t know who the Twins end up replacing him with, but two guarantees:  1) over/under on K/start will be 1.5 and 2) you don’t need to pick him up.

Carl Crawford/B.J. Upton – Rays scored a kajillion runs and they went a combined 0-for-6.  What a bunch of ticker teases!

Ross Ohlendorf – 5 IP, 5 ER.  The only thing standing in the way of The Dorf is his lackluster pitching.

Carlos Gomez – 4-for-8 in the last two games with a steal.  He’s starting for about a week with Young out.  Those desperate for steals may be able to sneak in a few for the next couple of days.

Mark Teixeira – 2 HRs yesterday with 4 RBIs.  Almost June?  Yup, makes sense.

Jason Marquis – 8 IP, 1 ER.  The Marquis de Sad did it to the Braves royally.

Bobby Abreu – 0-for-2, zero home runs and 14 steals on the year.  The Angels ended up with the 2nd coming of Reggie Willits.

Kendry Morales – 2 home runs yesterday to bring his total to 8 on the year while batting .289.  I realize he’s been yawnstipating in his career, but he’s having a solid year and could end up with 25/100/.280.

Russell Branyan – Hit his 10th homer on the year.  Hey, cheap power, say hello to your mother for me.

Vladimir Guerrero – Coming back from his torn pectoral to be the Angels’ Designated Hacker.  You have to think the pectoral plays some role in swinging.  Wouldn’t bet that Stitch Tits is going to deliver much more than an empty .280 average.

John Lackey – 5 IP, 4 ER.  Aren’t you glad you held onto him for two months?  His owners probably wish he would’ve just pegged Ichiro to start the game (Ichiro’s owners probably wish that too).  I think this was just rust with Lackey, I wouldn’t be too concerned.

Brandon Morrow – Pitched the 6th and 7th, giving up 2 earned runs.  The way he’s going he’s going to be pitching the 3rd inning soon.

Randy Wolf – Is he Randy for a win or Hungry for a win?  Either way, 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER should buy a brotha a win.  To give you a glimpse into my soul, I own Wolf in three leagues and I haven’t been disappointed at all.  56 1/3 IP, 46 Ks, 1.07 WHIP and a 2.72 ERA.  If someone was willing to give you Wolf for say the random rookie nookie you have (Zimmermann, Gamel, Parra), I’d do it.  I think it’s possible too, because Wolf gets no love.  In fact, I grabbed him off waivers in one of my ‘pert 15 team leagues.

Garrett Atkins – Getting benched by Hurdle.  Mrs. Garrett’s Atkins diet was more successful than Atkins this year.

Phil Coke – Got the save as Mo needed rest after pitching on Sat and Sun.  The last time Coke got credit for a Yankee save was when Steve Howe donned the pinstripes.

Joey Votto – Votto’s in the Scripps Clinic for an examination… E-X-A-M-I-N-A-T-I-O-N… Examination.

In yesterday’s game, Matt Kemp had 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. On the season, he’s batting .383 with 3 HRs, 14 RBIs, 12 Runs and 4 steals.  The 7th spot in the order is killing his value like Daniel Craig killed the Bond series.  Kemp’s a solid choice for NL MVP and I could see him moving to the 1st round next year for fantasy baseball drafts.  He said in the preseason that he wanted to go 40/40.  Can he actually do it?  Like Chris Young, it’s a tall order.  You don’t fall into 40/40 and, in Chavez Ravine, it’s not going to be easy for the 40 homers.  But the fact he wants to steal 40 bases is telling.  Steals are partially about motivation.  Sometimes guys just don’t want to steal (see Krispie Young in ‘08).  Other times, players pile steals on to show they can (Canseco’s 40/40 year).  I doubt Kemp reaches 40 homers, but 30/30 with a .300 average isn’t crackers.  We shall call him Sizemoremore.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Glen Perkins – 8 IP, 1 ER.  You’re talking about a pitching who had a 4.41 ERA last year, but a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate of 5.14.  That’s pretty bad.  Okay, I’m being generous.  That’s awful.  Yes, he was lucky to only have an ERA of 4.41.  His MOLLY (Mitigating Of Lousy Loathsome Yuck) was 7.  That means he got pretty lucky.  So far this year his MOLLY is 9.9.  His BABIP has been insanely lucky so far, his fly balls are all over the place yet falling into fielders’ gloves.  He’s due for a regression.  If you own him, you’re bound to get Mollywopped.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 0 ER.  To answer 95% of the questions off the bat, he’s better than Perkins.  We thought at first that he might be an old-school Joker (BLAM!) but he has a fairly sustainable BABIP, his K/9 could get better and his average against is in line with norms.  His walks are very low (for him), and he’s left a lot of guys on base, so he will see a correction in his future (SMACK!), but his FIP is only 3.86.  You feeling stressed with Baker, Parra and Dice-K?  Might want to try a little R & R. (POW!)

Rick Porcello – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s matchups material in 12 team and smaller leagues.  He’s very young, so Mike Seaver-sized growing pains should be expected.  6 innings, three earned, four Ks should be his typical line.

Adam Jones – Left with a sore hamstring and bloodshot eyes.

Manny Corpas – Kazaam!  Don’t you just love Clint Hurdle anointing him closer then bringing him into this game?

Edinson Volquez – 6 IP, 1 ER, but gave up 5 walks.  I hate to rain on your fantasy parade, but Volquez is still not pitching well.  You can’t walk 5 guys in 6 innings and win… Unless, of course, you’re playing the Astros.

Cody Ross – 3rd HR.  Could he be this year’s Nady?  Well, if he gets real lucky on average.  He could hit .260 and 25 HRs aka 90% of the outfielders on waivers in 12 team and smaller leagues.

Randy Johnson – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 1 Hit.  Didn’t hurt that no one on the Diamondbacks is currently hitting, but Randy’s still very capable of these games.  Unfortunately, he’s now capable of the 7 run disaster he threw last time out.

Matt Garza – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  It’s becoming a broken record, but he was also a risky pitcher.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks. Since his breaking pitches went up, he also showed up on the risky pitchers post.  But so far JV has been, like ohmigod, straight varsity.

Raul Ibanez – HR and batting .386.  I wasn’t a huge fan of his coming into this year… I mean, I liked him, but he is what he is.  Anyway, one league where my team is doing abysmally, he’s been that team’s one bright spot.  If he can now send a memo to Prince, Reynolds, Bruce and Alexei, that would be swell.

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta answers all Razzball readers who were looking to drop him with a HR yesterday.  Now if he can get 28 more hits this year, he’ll have those 30 HRs you covet.

B.J. Upton – Left with quad tightness.  Looks like he now has an excuse for his lollygagging.

Kyle Davies – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 Ks.  If he gives you that line every time out, you have to be happy.  Not happy happy, but “Hey, it’s Kyle Davies, I’ll take it” happy.

Gavin Floyd – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Ted Nugent.  Is the answer to, “Who could persuade me to pick him up?”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – With that last name would it have been too much to go with the standard Jared or even Jarod?  His saving grace so far this year is Teagarden hasn’t been much better.  I’m going to suggest you punt Salty by next Sunday if he doesn’t breakout out of his funk.  The only reason why I’m being so patient is A) He’s a catcher, so if he only hits 15 HRs this year, he’s still worth it.  B) He’s talented in a great home park and in a stacked lineup.  C) No C, but you could break B up into a few parts if you’d like.

Chris Davis – Benched yesterday.  If he ends up the biggest bust of the season, we’re gonna have to get a collection together to fly someone to have a “word” with Bill James about his Davis preseason projections of 107/40/118/.302/8.  I think we should send Mr. Met.  Bill will never expect anything.

Lastings Milledge was sent to the minors yesterday clearing room for Elijah Dukes to cover for him in center and probationary hearings.  Luckily, on his way out of town, Milledge stopped by Razzball HQ with some “word science.”  After you read the rhymes Milledge dropped, feel free to drop him.

Dukes has a good 3 days, so he gets a buffer?
I’m da original Bowden Fluffer!
My rhymes are so hard they break bats,
Why you go out and sign that Three-True Outcome Fats?
To the minors, you’re sending moi?
I’m declaring a fatwa!

Don’t push me, cuz I’m close to the edge,
I’m trying not to lose my head,
Uh huh ha ha ha…
It’s like a jungle sometimes it makes me wonder,
Why MLB didn’t let this team go under.

Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tom Glavine – Career might be over.  Take a moment, go to the front lawn, pocket some dirt in honor of Glavine’s career, then drop him.

Chris Carpenter – From the top 60 starters post, “There’s plenty of pitchers to choose from, give Carpenter a year to prove himself.  That’s all, one year.  Or maybe until the All-Star Break.  Just don’t draft him out of the gate.” Do I need to continue?  Carpenter left yesterday’s game with a strained oblique.  That’s vaguely a belly ache.  I wouldn’t drop him, but I would hope he gets placed on the DL so you can at least free up a spot.

Jesse Litsch – Wasn’t worth owning prior to forearm tightness and now he’s on the 15-day DL.  Call in Reggie Roby.

Xavier Nady – Left with elbow pain.  In the 1st basemen to target post, I said, ” I think (Swisher) takes the job from Nady when Nady’s exploited for not being what he was last year.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Nady’s one of the bigger busts this year outside of Billy Butler’s moobs.   Nady was injury-prone prior to last year and last year was a career year.  Do the math!

Nick Swisher – 4th HR yesterday.  Read again what I wrote about Nady.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – One inning, 5 earned.  I’m not going to quote or link to anything, but I told you to avoid Dice-K this year.  You do what you do, I do what I do.  Word on the Bean Streets is he’s suffering from “arm fatigue.”  Clay Buchholz may be getting the call to replace him for a couple of starts.

Scott Podsednik – Jeopardy contestant, “Questionable Manager Moves for $100.”  Alex Trebek, “The answer is ‘The White Sox signed Scott Podsednik.’”  Contestant, “How could Ozzie Guillen find a worst centerfielder, leadoff man than DeWayne Wise?”

Vladimir Guerrero – Admitted this offseason to lying about his age and is now coping to a Latin 34.  He seems like a nice guy, but, man, he’s been looking like a Latin 40.

Ricky Romero – 8 IP, 2 ER.  C’mon, that’s a made-up name!  It’s too perfect.  Good results for “Ricky” so far as he’s kept his walks in check.  His minor league numbers say trouble isn’t too far away.  In AL-Only leagues, he’s worth a flier, but don’t get too excited.

Glen Perkins – Also 8 IP, 2 ER.  Another great start for The Pancake House.  Again, don’t invest too heavily.  He’s like Slowey-lite.

Nelson Cruz – Hit his 4th homer.  If he’s on waivers in any leagues, he shouldn’t be.  If you have a power void on your team, I’d trade for Cruz.

A.J. Burnett – No hitter into the 7th.  I’d look to trade him if you’re fine on starters.  Five dollars says he doesn’t get through May.

Carlos Villanueva – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Kazaam!

Javier Vazquez – 12 Ks in the loss.  Ah, those patient Marlins hitters.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-5 to drop his average to .485.  The correction is complete!

Melvin Mora – To the DL with a hamstring injury.  Wigginton will field the spot for a few weeks.  That’s no endorsement of Wigginton unless you’re desperate.  Then again, if you were playing Mora, you probably are desperate.

Manny Parra – 6 IP, 3 ER.  Two runs scored on walks to Taveras and Hairston, two guys that need to be knocked down to take a pitch.  In summation, Parra really needs to cut down on his walks.

Chris Davis – 2nd HR in two days.  Now don’t you feel bad for hating him three days ago?

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  Okay, Davis 2, Reynolds 1… Now go to your corners and when you hear the bell come out swinging.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Stole his fourth bag as he bats .194.  I could see him hitting .260 and stealing 40 this year.  Oh, and Jacoby Ellsbury says, “It’s April 15th, do your taxes!”

Already sporting 2 of the top 3 NL windmills in Krispie Young and Mark Reynolds, the D-Backs traded for #5 Adam Dunn.  Dunn will give you HR.  Dunn will give you OBP.  Everything else is ugly and it looks like the Reds just couldn’t take looking at it anymore. It’s as if he’s Moneyball on the rocks and everyone prefers to add some tonic or juice. This doesn’t do much for Dunn’s value.  He still has home games in a hitter’s park and it’s not like his HRs wouldn’t clear the walls in San Diego and SF. This move adds some offensive punch to the D-Backs lineup, but remember Dunn was never a huge RBI guy. Speaking of huge, there’s a hole in the Reds team now that Kamala, the Ugandan Giant, (or Jim Thome) could walk through. Hairston should benefit from the lineup spot vacancy and Patterson should get most starts in the outfield. But who will the Reds now judge burly against? Their lardstick has left the building. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Evan Longoria – Fractured wrist sends Longoria to the DL. Word around Wisteria Lane is the injury happened from bitch-slapping Nicolette Sheridan. It’s tough being the youngest and prettiest on the block… For the Rays, this is a tough 1-2 after losing Carl Crawford. It’s as if the world realizes something is amiss with the Rays winning and wants to put things back in order. Bad news for Longoria owners. There’s a chance the Rays rush him back for the pennant race, but there’s also a good chance he may not return this year in time to help anyone or he may return and not be the same hitter in the final month. Wrist injuries are often doom for hitters’ short-term production.

CJ Wilson – Done for the season. Guardado will remain the closer until he begins to look more like the real Guardado then Frank Francisco will take over. ETA for real Guardado? 3 days to one month.

Justin Verlander – 4.1 IP, 6 ER. Reports are saying he has a dead arm. That doesn’t mean he’s walking around like a zombie with his arm sticking out. It means Leyland had him throw 130 pitches last week then had him throw 4 days later. Luckily, a dead arm is not as bad as an injured arm. But it’s the first step.

Aaron Heilman – 3 ER, blowing the save. If Heilman’s got Jerry Manuel pulling out his hair, he might want to call Guiseppe Franco. When the best righty closer in your team’s 40+ year history is Armando Benitez, you’ve got to expect the worst. If you’re Double D’d with closers, you might want to punt this whole situation.

John Grabow – Save for Pittsburgh. Might be good for 5-7 more saves the rest of the way which will require 10-12 Tums.

Glen Perkins – Kudos to those of you who had the cajones to start the now 9-3 Perkins against the Yanks as he shut them out for 8 innings.  He’s not going to give you K’s or a great WHIP but he might be worth keeping an eye on for spot starts the rest of the way.

Carlos Lee – Had surgery on his pinkie. The operating doctor said, “It had been torn apart like a jigsaw puzzle that we put together.” Okay, but was it like a snow scene puzzle where there’s like 3000 white pieces or was it a dogs playing poker puzzle?

Shaun Marcum – 6 IP, 2 ER. He looks flat-out usable. (Which is, of course, below flat-out dominating and above flat-out awful.)

Nomar Garciaparra – Returns from the DL on Tuesday. Hopefully he doesn’t hurt anyone else reinjuring himself on Wednesday.

Hideki Matsui/Joba Chamberlain – Hideki’s running the bases and Joba’s set to throw on Friday. Everything’s all right in Yankee land, except for getting shutout by the aforementioned Glen Perkins. And batting Justin Christian lead off. And being 9 games behind the Rays. And being closer to the fourth place Jays than the second place Sox. And starting Sidney Ponson every fifth day. And starting Rasner. And relying on Xavier Nady. And still paying Carl Pavano. And thinking Ivan Rodriguez would really matter in the big picture. But other than those things, all is right in Yankee land.