Fantasy Baseball Advice

Well, that took care of the hitters.  They’re done.  That cake is done.  Unless you count Utility-only players, the Hall of Fame committee doesn’t count them, not sure why you do.  Maybe you like players so unathletic that they can’t even play first.  You deal with your own hang-ups, ‘kay?  Now we look at the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  Bee tee dubya, I’m still calling this year twelve after twenty.  Hope you are too, hate to think I started a fad that only lasted for a minute or two right after midnight on January 1st.  We’re gonna take this top 20 to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  Sounds daunting to you?!  Try being the one writing all this gobbledygook.  I have a pretty off color joke for that last word, but you would’ve had to be in ‘Nam to appreciate it.  You’re not going to find me drafting many of the top tier 20 starters unless they drop to the point where I feel they’re a bargain.  Say two to three rounds past their average draft position.  There’s just too many starters you can grab in the 5th to 7th rounds that are pretty safe to mess with the top, top guys.  I do like to grab at least one starter from the following post, but we’ll get to that.  As with the hitters, the projections are mine and I’ll list where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Roy Halladay – This is the top tier.  This tier goes from here until Verlander.  I call this tier, “The top tier.  Didn’t I already say that?”  Halladay’s projections can be found in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Clayton Kershaw – I saw some ‘perts rank Verlander above Kershaw.  For shame, shame balls.  I saw another ‘pert rank Verlander above Halladay.  Shame ball me once?  Shame balls on you.  Shame ball me twice?  Shame balls on you.  To think I don’t get paid for this astute analysis.  Inconceivable!  Seriously (uh-oh, you know I’m about to get serious), what is there to say about the top pitchers?  Kershaw just slept with your sister in the back of a hooptie, then left her on the side of the 101 in Reseda.  Are you angry or proud?  Proud, that’s how awesome he is.  2012 Projections:  17-7/2.55/1.05/230

3. Cliff Lee – The Adverb had a tough time with walks last year (for him, which is way below normal for any human pitcher), and that lead to a huge step forward in Ks (7.84 to 9.21 K/9).  Doode, I’ll take a full 2.00 BB/9 if it means another 40 Ks.  You feel me?  If you do, could you stop?  It’s making me uncomfortable.  2012 Projections:  18-8/2.50/1.05/215

4. Justin Verlander – The other day I heard a ex-jock, sportscasting announcer guy say, “Verlander didn’t have a good year…. He had a great year!”  Is there any other profession that could get away with such trite shizz?  Imagine your mechanic told you your muffler wasn’t good… It was great!  You’d think twice the next time a Groupon for Jiffy Lube showed up in your Inbox.  You know ESPN et al think they can get away with ex-jocks/idiotic sportscasters because they think you’re dumb.  With that said, Verlander did have a great year.  DAH!!!  2012 Projections:  18-7/2.75/1.08/240

5. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Greinke.  I call this tier, “The aces that once were.”  I’m seeing Lincecum drafted after a couple of guys I have after him on my rankings, so if he were to fall far enough, I could see maybe getting him.  He would have to fall probably much later than he will.  He had a solid enough 2011 to still be an ace.  Don’t love the falling K-rate, burgeoning walk rate or his highest xFIP since his rookie year.  None of it is terrific, but I also wouldn’t yell fire in the theater of Lincecum.  2012 Projections:  15-10/2.75/1.18/230

6. Felix Hernandez – Ready to have your mind blown?  F-Her actually had a better season in 2011 than his dream Cy Young year when he won a whole 13 games.  Thinking about that, Murray Chass just rolled over in casket, assuming he sleeps in a casket to make things easier for his family when he dies.  F-Her’s K-rate was better in 2011, his xFIP was nearly identical (3.14 vs. 3.15) and he won an extra game.  (His WHIP was a little off, but that was due to some rollers finding holes, as they say on the Skee-Ball World Tour.)  2012 Projections:  15-12/2.80/1.14/220

7. CC Sabathia – I’m trying not to be too stupid this year.  In previous years, I’ve said I’m avoiding CC because he has too many innings on his arm.  Then he’s gone out and thrown another 200 innings.  He can throw a lot of innings.  He’s just a dandy Yankee who eats lots of cheese doodles — stick a feather in his arm and call it macaroni and then he’ll eat that too.  2012 Projections:  20-7/3.10/1.20/210

8. Zack Greinke – Okay, I probably will end up drafting Greinke cause I’m ranking him pretty high.  That doesn’t mean I’m taking him in the 3rd round overall.  (I’ll get to the top 300 overall where I rank everyone together; don’t worry your cute little egg-shaped head about that.)  I can’t say I owned Greinke last year when everyone was crazy about him in the preseason because, well, everyone was crazy about him.  Then he went out and had a 3.83 ERA.  Belch called you up and burped.  Obviously there’s more to his ERA than meets the eye.  He had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.56 xFIP.  *drool*  Everyone’s writing the Brewers off this year, and there’s some reason to, but Greinke used to do work on the Royals.  He’ll be a’ight.  2012 Projections:  15-8/2.90/1.18/220

9. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Lester.  I call this tier, “If I don’t have one starter already, here’s where I’m drafting and I’m fine with that.”  Are we going to get the Hamels that gives a 9+ K-rate or the under-2 walk rate?  Doesn’t matter.  He really hasn’t had one bad year when you look under the hood.  Four straight years of 32+ starts and no xFIP over 3.63.  You’ll take it and like it.  2012 Projections:  15-10/2.95/1.10/200

10. Madison Bumgarner – I already went over my Bumgarner 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while counting my licks to the center of a Tootsie pop.  2012 Projections:  15-8/2.90/1.18/200

11. Yovani Gallardo – I took some flak for ranking Gallardo so high last year.  Well, last year I ranked him 10th and this year 11th.  Correction done.  I don’t know, guys and three girl readers, he had a 8.99 K/9, dropped his walk rate by more than one per nine and had a xFIP of 3.19.  Was it really that bad of a year?  Rhetorical!  If he gives me the same season as last year, I’m all right with that.  (Side note:  Gallardo was on the Verducci list of risky pitchers.  Here’s what I said about that list.)  2012 Projections:  15-9/3.15/1.20/210

12. David Price – I saw one fantasy baseball ‘pert rank Price 11th and Gallardo 18th.  Let’s see what we know from last year:  Price’s K-rate 8.75; Gallardo’s 8.99, Price’s walk rate 2.53; Gallardo’s 2.56, Price’s xFIP 3.32; Gallardo’s 3.19, Price is in the AL East; Gallardo is in a Pujols-less NL Central (which actually sounds painful), Price won 12 games last year; Gallardo 17.  I’m willing to throw wins out the metaphorical window, but is anything else saying Price is that much better?  None of this is meant to disparage Price, bee tee dubya.  I just don’t see the discrepancy between the two.  You know what happens when you feel sick from French pancakes?  You’re having a discrepancy.  Take it, Highlights.  It’s yours.  2012 Projections:  15-10/3.20/1.18/200

13. Jon Lester – I beat myself up a little (no, that’s not a euphemism for something else) on where to rank Lester. His xFIP last year was 3.62.  I’ve seen better.  His K-rate of 8.55 is great, but he’s done better.  Looking inside his months, it’s hard to see why we should penalize him for two bad months (May and September).  In May, he had one start vs. the Cubs where he gave up 5 earned in six innings, but the Sawx had a huge early lead, so he was pitching to bats.  He was then torched by the Blue Jays for five runs in 5 innings, but three came in the 1st and then he settled down.  Finally, he gave up 7 earned vs. the White Sox (obviously he doesn’t like Chicago pizza).  In that game, he gave three early runs then 4 in the 6th to get chased.  Then his bad month of September came when the entire club crapped on the memory of Johnny Pesky.  Am I making excuses for Lester?  Oh, fo’ sho.  But he strikes out a lot of people.  Hmm, guess I could’ve just said that.  2012 Projections:  16-9/3.25/1.22/200

14. Dan Haren – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until C.J. Wilson.  I call this tier, “Wim Wenders’s favorite tier.”  With my Haren ranking here, I’m basically blocking a Triple Word score with a solid, yet unspectacular word.  I don’t think Haren is going to be someone who ends up out-performing this ranking (unless he lucks into, like, 22 wins).  He is terrifically solid.  No more, no less.  It’s not a knock.  It just is.  2012 Projections:  17-10/3.30/1.12/190

15. Jered Weaver – This year in and year out exceeding of his xFIP worries me.  It’s like we’re being told to proceed with caution, but continue to ignore it and it works out.  I don’t want the rug to get pulled out from underneath me, but I also don’t want to say he’s garbage because he has a bit of a track record that says he’s not.  I’m going to put my ERA projection at 3.35, but if we get a 3.60 it wouldn’t shock me.  I also don’t think it would make for that awful of a season either.  2012 Projections:  16-10/3.35/1.12/200

16. C.J. Wilson – When he landed in SoCal, I went over my C.J. Wilson fantasy.  I wrote it while juggling fire.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.45/1.21/190

17. Gio Gonzalez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!”  You’ll pardon me if I link to my Gio Gonzalez 2012 fantasy rather than reiterating.  This post is already pushing 2000 words and eyes tend to glaze over after the first 125 words.  2012 Projections:  15-8/3.50/1.28/200

18. Matt Cain – He’s the only name in this tier that isn’t crazy exciting just reliable.  If you think this is too high and that I’m crummy with crackers, his ERAs the last three years were:  2.89, 3.14 and 2.88.  Like Harrison Ford’s Jewish roots, those aren’t too shabby.  Need more convincing?  He had more quality starts than Halladay last year.  Sure, his xFIPs aren’t great, but he beats those every year, let’s just accept that.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.10/1.10/180

19. Mat Latos – Albert went over Latos’s trade to the Reds when it went down.  There he said, “When you think Padres pitching, you assume they get huge bumps from Petco – not exactly the case for Latos. While he has a slightly better K:BB rate at home during the course of his career, his slash lines are virtually identical: .229/.287/.348 at home versus .224/.286/.351 on the road.  Bingo-bango!”  I added the bingo-bango.  To add to that, Latos was facing the Giants and Dodgers a heck of a lot.  They’re, how do I say, terrible.  Yes, that’s how I say it.  Home or away.  He’ll be a bit less the pitcher he was, but he’ll also have an actual offense and could be a sleeper to get 20 wins.  I know, I know, I don’t count on wins either.  Just putting it out there in the ether, no relation to Andre.  2012 Projections:  16-10/3.50/1.20/200

20. Stephen Strasburg – His fan club, The House of Strasburg, better launder their early-1900s, Austrian officer uniforms because we’re about to have our ordainment of St. Rasburg.  I want to watch him more than I want to get in a bidding war to own him.  If you catch my drift… If you don’t catch my drift, stand behind me.  I’d be shocked if he pitches one inning over 160.  For our friends from Latin America, we have a caveat:  I wouldn’t go near Strasburg in H2H leagues, there’s no way he pitches in September.  2012 Projections:  12-5/2.90/1.10/165 in 160 innings

Andrew Bailey bettah work on his non-rhotic (Word of the Day!) pronunciations cause he’s headed to the town of beans.  This is my town and these are my beans!  Not to say I told you so, but to tell you I told you so.  When Melancon went to the Sawx, I said, “The GM over in Beantown says Melancon is “capable of closing.”  In big market speak, that means he won’t be the closer.  Melancon is the stereotypical small market closer, big market set-up man.”  Prescient ain’t just a word you need a spell checker for.  It’s a state of mind!  Bailey will be absolutely fine as a closer when he’s healthy, which is to say maybe 4 of 6 months of the season if the Sawx are lucky.  So Melancon will get some saves, say, maybe, I don’t know, interjection, 10 saves.  It’s not bad for a guy that won’t be drafted in many leagues.  This also solidifies the Sawx’s intention of putting Bard into the rotation.  I think it’s slightly crazy talk, but I’m wearing a burlap sack and drinking a Capri Sun without a straw so what do I know?  Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves and what they mean for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Sike!  Before we get into today’s post, just want to say that if you’re into fantasy basketball, you should check out the work Adam’s doing; it’s smart and funny, and I don’t know basketball at all.  One time I was playing a pick up basketball game and I tried to do a layup and I threw the ball over the backboard.  I was like, “Call me Calista Flockhart cause I’m throwing up shizz.”  Ah, the laughs we had.  Then I was never picked to play on a team again.  Anyway II, some offseason moves for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Josh Reddick – Heads to the A’s on the other side of the Bailey hullabaloo.  Did Beane get enough?  I don’t know.  Instead, let’s ask ourselves this:  Did Braun test positive because he was treating herpes?  In Triple-A, Reddick hit .127 in 2009, then .266 in 2010, then .230 last year.  So I’d be surprised if he hits above .260 over the course of the 2012 season.  He has shown the ability to hit for power, but now he moves to the unfriendly confines of Oakland.  Best case scenario, you’re getting a 15/10/.260 guy.  It’s all right, but if he fails to meet those modest expectations, he’s nothing but a third outfielder for AL-Only leagues.  Herpes, Braun, really?  That’s your defense?  That’s like telling your wife you killed her cat to take your mind off cheating on her.  Braun, you couldn’t say you tested positive because you were taking some non-FDA approved Chinese medicine for migraines?  Who’s advising this schmohawk?

Casey Blake – To Rockies.  When Blake’s healthy, Cuddyer will move to the outfield.  (30% of the time.)  When Blake’s injured, Cuddyer will play 3rd base.  (45% of the time.)  When Helton’s injured, Cuddyer will play 1st base. (20% of the time.)  When Cuddyer and Blake are both healthy, but the Rockies feel like playing someone else they’ll work in Seth Smith or Eric Young Jr.  (15% of the time.)  (I have no idea if those percentages add up, but you get the general gist.  By the way, General Gist would be a great band name.  “Have you heard General Gist’s new album, Neither Here Nor There?  It’s awesome!”  Speaking of great bands, loving the new Black Keys album.  Love!)  In the end, this has nothing to do with Casey Blake or Michael Cuddyer or even Nolan Arenado.  The Rockies absolutely refuse to give Seth Smith a regular job.  Maybe someone in the front office has a lisp and can’t stand to say Seth Smith has a starting job.  Oh, and they hate Eric Young Jr.’s guts.  The Rockies are Mike Scioscia and Eric Young Jr. is Mike Napoli.  Just trade that ain’t-getting-any-younger Young to a team that will let him play.  Please.

Sean Marshall – Off to the Reds in a swap of Marshall and Travis Wood.  Right now the Reds are saying Marshall may serve as the closer.  That’s just a bargaining tool against Francisco Cordero.  Marshall’s not going to be the closer.  He’ll be a setup man to either Cordero or Chapman, who is supposed to start as of right now but I don’t think that’s gonna happen either.  Here’s a formula for you:  What a GM Says + Reality = Nothing.

Travis Wood – To the Cubs in the aforementioned mentioning of Marshall.  I have a feeling the Reds are going to regret losing Wood.  Dusty Baker, “I haven’t lost wood since that one time in the 70′s when George Foster unexpectedly walked into my hotel room.”  If the Cubs play their hand right, they’ll send Wood to the minors to regain his confidence then bring him back when the time is right.  If he makes the rotation, he’s nothing but a cheap flyer in NL-Only leagues.  I would be very aware of him in keeper leagues though.  He does have number two starter upside.

Gio Gonzalez - Beane pulled another trade.  Can someone say Moneyball sequel?!  Actually, if you can’t say it, you should see a speech therapist.  How about the Nats looking like they’re gonna be contenders?  Hopefully they get some new announcers so it’s not as wretched watching them.  Get back Dibble so he can call into question a guy headed for Tommy John surgery!  I love that kind of manic enthusiasm.  Anyway, Gonzalez wasn’t nearly the pitcher his 3.12 ERA showed last year, but he has far exceeded his xFIP the last two years while posting solid K numbers.  I’m willing to get on the Gio aeroplane in twelve past twenty (BTW, that’s what I’m calling 2012, go with it).  A guy that is moving to the NL with a 8.78 K-rate is plenty all right, even with the wonky walks.

Brad Peacock – With Gio going to the Nats, Peacock gets inserted into the A’s.  That sounds like it hurts!  Which Billy Beane is making these trades anyway?  Peacock had a great season in Double- and Triple-A last year, putting up a 2.39 ERA and a 177/47 K/BB line.  The A’s basically got Gio Gonzalez back.  I’m gonna be all about Peacock in 2012 like I just woke up from a nap after drinking seven glasses of water.

Tommy Milone – Just another great arm bagged by Beane.  I’m not saying the Nats paid too much for Gio but — Well, actually, I am saying that.  They just paid the price of two potential Gios for one real Gio.  (Not to mention, A.J. Cole, who was also received, has a great arm but is just a bit young for our purposes, and Derek Norris will slide in nicely once the A’s move on from their Suzuki sidekick. What an ugly trade by the Nats.)  Milone’s 2011 in Triple-A was 3.22 ERA with a 155/16 K/BB ratio.  Hello, beautiful.  Peacock and Milone will have match-ups appeal in 2012 for mixed leagues and be sexy sleepers for AL-Only leagues.

Jim Johnson – O’s said he’ll open the season as the closer.  I’d go ahead and drink that Jim Johnson Kool-Aid.  O’s are competing for 4th place in the AL East so they have no reason not to use Johnson.  Though I think Selig now made the 4th place finisher in the AL East a playoff team.  Need to double check that.

Carlos Beltran – Cards add Beltran to their Rafael Furcal/Lance Berkman-powered lineup.  Your 2012 Cardinals are brought to you by Bengay and the used 1994 Chrysler LeBaron in your driveway.

So, how’s everyone holding up without baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Mike Stanton for 2012.  We’ve gone over the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  There’s only one of these godforsaken recap posts left before we’re into 2012 fantasy shizz.  You’re welcome.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Madison Bumgarner – Trying to find some info that hasn’t been reported before, I decided to look at some of Bumgarner’s splits vs. his NL West opponents.  I figured he would’ve dominated them and I was going to conclude Giants pitchers are can’t misses because of their most-faced opponents.  Against the Padres (4.24 ERA in 23 1/3 IP), Dodgers (4.11 in 30 2/3 IP!) and Arizona (4.26 in 12 2/3 IP) — hey, metaphorical window, how about you open so I can throw a theory out?  Preseason Rank #46, 2011 Projections: 12-7/3.60/1.25/140, Final Numbers:  13-13/3.21/1.21/191

22. Daniel Hudson – I had so much love for Hudson in the preseason that he kinda needed to compete for the Cy Young to please me.  Instead, he produced respectable numbers but disappointed in the one category that gives me the goose pimples — Ks.  His K-rate dropped from 7.93 to 6.85.  Mr. Obvious, “Yeah, that’s not good.”  Preseason Rank #34, 2011 Projections: 12-9/3.50/1.18/190, Final Numbers:  16-12/3.49/1.20/169

23. Hiroki Kuroda – Definitely the Rodney Dangerfield of major league starters.  Kuroda could’ve been coming off 5 solid starts and I’d have people asking me in the comments if they should hold him.   Hold him, squeeze him, love him.  On an unrelated note, what if Chazz Palminteri became Chastity Palminteri?  Or Chazz Face-Palminteri?  Preseason Rank #39, 2011 Projections: 12-9/3.45/1.18/140, Final Numbers:  13-16/3.07/1.21/161

24. Johnny Cueto – I played a broken record during the season about how Cueto wasn’t a sub-2.50 ERA pitcher.  Not going to play that tune again.  Everyone who owned him got lucky.  Let’s leave it at that.  Preseason Rank #42, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.65/1.26/160, Final Numbers:  9-5/2.31/1.09/104

25. Jeremy Hellickson – Member what I said about Cueto?  No?  I just said it Mr. Short-Term Memory.  He got lucky.  Yeah, Hellickson did too.  In a huge way.  2.95 ERA vs. 4.72 xFIP and a 5.57 K-rate.  Can anyone say Blechellickson?  Sure, you can.  It’s Hellickson with a Blec.  Preseason Rank #64, 2011 Projections:  9-5/3.60/1.10/140, Final Numbers:  13-10/2.95/1.15/117

26. Ryan Vogelsong – As will be a recurring theme that won’t emerge until January of 2012, just about all of the pitchers that ended up in this top 40 that were unranked, I won’t like next year.  Except Pineda.  Vogelsong left a bunch of men on base, walked hitters, didn’t strike out guys… He looked like a fantasy number two but he’s really a four to five.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-7/2.71/1.25/139

27. Shaun Marcum – Tale of two pitchers with Marcum and Greinke.  I liked both of them in the preseason and they both produced, but I still felt disappointed by their end of the year numbers.  Hmm, that’s not really a tale.  With Marcum, I gave some lofty expectations, telling you he was going to start the All-Star Game.  Yeah, that turned out as bonkers as it sounded even at the time.  I thought Marcum could step up his K-rate in the NL, instead it took a small step backwards and we were actually lucky to get the ERA we did get.  It worked out; it could’ve easily backfired.  Preseason Rank #33, 2011 Projections: 15-8/3.35/1.15/185, Final Numbers:  13-7/3.54/1.16/158

28. Zack Greinke – He had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.56 xFIP.  Who are you, Ricky Nolasco?  How dare you try to confuse Murray Chass!   Or Murray Chass Bono.  Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 15-9/3.50/1.18/200, Final Numbers:  16-6/3.83/1.20/201

29. Jon Lester – One of the biggest disappointments, but at least he wasn’t Liriano.  And you were wondering how long it would be until I mentioned Liriano.  Hey, at least I didn’t mention Morneau.  Oh, wait.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 17-9/3.30/1.18/220, Final Numbers: 15-9/3.47/1.26/182

30. Ervin Santana – One of my misses in the preseason.  I was done with him going into 2011 because of his yawnstipating 2010 and 2009.  Now not to turn every square peg into a round one, I wasn’t totally wrong on Ervin.  He outperformed his xFIP (3.93) by a decent amount.  He did produce more ground balls and upped his K-rate ever so slightly.  All in all or some other idiomatic phrase, Ervin gave us some magic.   Preseason Rank #51, 2011 Projections: 13-10/4.30/1.32/150, Final Numbers:  11-12/3.38/1.22/178

31. Gio Gonzalez – In my tier of guys I kinda love for a third starter, there was Marcum, Daniel Hudson, Gio Gonzalez and Volquez.  To one-up Meatloaf, 3 out of 4 ain’t bad.  Seriously, everyone talks about how pitchers aren’t predictable, but I do a pretty good job of picking them out.  BTW, this kinda made me laugh, in the preseason I said, “(Gio) went 13 innings over the 30 inning Verducci threshold last year, but Verducci’s a crackpot who told you to avoid F-Her, Latos and Josh Johnson in 2010.”  Ha, Verducci.  What a jizzie-joke.  I wonder if he puts all pitchers under 25 years old on a dart board, or if he puts a picture of the pitcher on the dart and sees if he can hit the board.  Preseason Rank #35, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.60/1.28/195, Final Numbers:  16-12/3.12/1.32/197

32. Javier Vazquez – Then in my tier of guys I kinda l0ve as my fourth starter were Vazquez, Garza, Zimmermann, Hellickson and James McDonald.  Quite a few hits in there too.  Yeah, I did like Vazquez last preseason only to have Rudy badger me to drop him in our 12-team NL-Only league.  A league where middle relievers were owned, forget about finding a starter with a rotation job.  Fongool my life.  Preseason Rank #61, 2011 Projections: 12-10/3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.69/1.18/162

33. Mat Latos – On the Verducci list this year was Latos, Bumgarner, Price, Beachy and Gio Gonzalez.  One of my favorite parts of the offseason is hearing how he justifies the previous year’s misses.  Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections: 9-7/3.50/1.10/160, Final Numbers:  9-14/3.47/1.18/185

34. Kyle Lohse – I would’ve had a hard time picking up Lohse in September even after he had 5 solid months.  That’s how much I trust him.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.39/1.17/111

35. Matt Garza – He was in my early season difference between ERA and xFIP articles that told you he was going to be much better, then he went ahead and made me look like a genius.  Though I still can’t spell genius without a spellchecker.  Preseason Rank #62, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.75/1.27/165, Final Numbers:  10-10/3.32/1.26/197

36. Alexi Ogando – God, his Ks were terrible.  I know, I know, it’s only one category.  But they’re not.  They’re a category that every other category can hinge on.  Strike guys out and they don’t get on base and it lowers your ERA and WHIP and gives you a chance for Wins.  Sure, there’s other ways pitchers can get hitters out, but they’re not as straightforward.  I like straightforward!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-8/3.51/1.14/126

37. Michael Pineda – Now he struck people out.  I already went over my Michael Pineda 2012 fantasy.  In that article, there’s German women dancing in lederhosen.  BTW, shouldn’t more than one German be Germen?  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  9-10/3.74/1.10/173

38. Justin Masterson – I Cameron Maybin’d Masterson this year.  Was all about him in 2010, but then when I should’ve actually been in on him I Mr. Bungled it.  Though I did recover quickly and ended up with him on some teams because I grabbed him off waivers in April-ish.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-10/158/3.21/1.28

39. Cory Luebke – And with a bullet… The first hodgepadre!  Earlier in this post (I think it was this post… Jesus Montero, what am I going on like 1300 words?  Offseason is supposed to be easier for me, crimey a river, Timberlake), I said there’s no unranked pitchers that I will like again next year except Pineda.  Luebke will probably be liked too, depending on January Grey’s mood ring color.  January Grey, “I hocked my mood ring for blow.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-10/3.29/1.07/154

40. Josh Collmenter – Yeah, Collmenter wasn’t that good.  An under 6 K-rate?  As the French say, “Parlez vous crap.”  (The French don’t say that.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-10/3.38/1.07/100

In the second installment of the grading process, it’s helpful to look at those sleepers I, Albert Lang, just nearly missed on – basically guys who were a push. These are players who were almost successful sleepers picks but walked too many, gave up too many HRs or just swung and missed a ton.

Dan Uggla – This is the most miraculous push in the history of the world. After Uggla’s horrendous start to the season, he rebounded to bat .234 but with 35 HRs.

Jimmy Rollins – Consensus had Rollins as a top 5 option. Rollins is 6th at the position. However a bigger pre-draft split was where he should fall overall. I thought Rollins could push 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, but rest on the low end of each. He had 14 HRs and 28 SBs. We also saw his average stay below .275. If you drafted Rollins in the top 50, you are probably somewhat disappointed.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus was a tricky player to write about all year. I liked him, but the hype was a little ridiculous. While I would rather have Nick Swisher, I thought Rasmus was capable of hitting .260 with 20-25 HRs and 15 SBs. Petty squabbles in St. Louis and poor health have Rasmus at 14 HRs, five steals and a .235 average. I was clearly wrong on my projection.

Jason Bartlett – I thought Bartlett could get back to batting .275 (didn’t happen: .251), but I also thought he was a good bet to reach 20 – 30 SBs (he has 23). It’s a wash, but with how bad the SS position has been, he’s been a useful figure in 2011.

Nick Swisher – God it is disgusting how dirty good Brian Cashman is – he absolutely stole Swisher from Kenny Williams. Still, the entire fantasy community also seems to sleep on Swish, as he was the 33^rd consensus OF. Well, he is the 31^st OF, so they were closer in terms of ranking.

Gio Gonzalez – I had Gonzalez as the 42^nd best SP, consensus put him around 49, and he will end up about 46^th overall. So maybe I overvalued him…or maybe not.  I predicted a 4.00 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 200 Ks. Right now, he has bested my ERA prediction (3.41 ERA) and come very close to meeting my WHIP prediction (1.37 WHIP). He has 177 Ks, so he’ll likely fall a tad short of 200.

Will Venable – While, technically, I had Venable ranked higher than most people, I still warned against the hype I saw building. Specifically, I said that his ceiling of a .320 OBP and the amount of balls he swings at out of the zone wouldn’t get him anywhere near the 30 steals he approached last season. Well, he currently sits at 26 – whoops. I did add in the caveat that we could see some weird things with the Padres this year, i.e., that in the absence of any real offense, their players would be running silly and that could artificially buoy Venable’s SB number. So, I was sort of correct in my Venable assessment.

Mark Reynolds – It’s so weird to be wrong about a known commodity. I had Reynolds buried on the draft board (22^nd 3b), whereas consensus had him a bit higher. I believed he was a .240 hitter with 35 HRs and 10 SBs. He has actually batted worse (.222) and has 36 HRs and just 6 SBs, but has come in as the 6^th best 3b for the year. What a dreadful position.

Edwin Jackson – Partly because he was born in Germany, partly because I believed in the Chicago White Sox pitching coaches, I thought Jackson would have a nice year. I expected an ERA in the 4.25-4.50 range with 170 Ks. He has fallen short of the Ks (he has just 146) but his ERA has been a nice surprise (3.85). Sure the WHIP is miserable, but he wasn’t that bad of a pitcher.

Chris Iannetta – I had Iannetta as a sleeper for the millionth year in a row, expecting a .250 hitter with 15 HRs (with upside as well). Well, Iannetta has batted just .236 this year but does have 13 HRs. He hasn’t helped at all down the stretch though and has really sputtered out. It would be nice if he batted anything other than eighth, but you have to play the cards you’re dealt.

On the first day of the season, I said something profound and uplifting.  Don’t go back to look.  I’m sure I did.  Today, I’m like Mark Twain talking about summer in San Francisco but less pithy.  The coldest winter I ever spent was the last day of the baseball season.  It’s metaphorical, friend.  Trust me.  Here’s where I tell you how everything’s gonna be okay.  How there will be a next season, barring the Mayans taking things into their own hands… I can’t do that.  I can’t tell you there will be a next season.  *checking notes*  Actually, I can do that.  There will be a next season.  Hey, that’s good news!  Also, next year we’ll know not to draft Morneau.  That’s more good news!  And next year we’ll be done with the hair transplant so girls will start to react favorably to us.  That’s good news too!  So, I know you’re blue, but without clouds there’s no sun.  Actually, I don’t know if that’s true.  Again, metaphorical.  Or is that meteorological?  You know what?  These aren’t things we need to get hung up on.  We’re gonna sit here, read all my year-end recaps that’ll be coming in the next few weeks and wait until next year.  Even if gangrene sets into our legs from lack of circulation!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jose Reyes – Laid down a bunt single then had himself removed from the game to guarantee he won the batting title.  That’s not how Ted Williams would’ve liked it.  He risked a .400 average to take all his ABs in the last game of the season.  The only time he quit while ahead was after death.

Miguel Batista – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks.  After the Mets-Reds game, Batista learned that this great start was all a hilarious stunt for a new show on MLB.TV called “Last Wish” starring the incomparable Steve “Psycho” Lyons.  Gotcha, Miguel!  Stay tuned for Sean Casey’s talk show ‘The Mayor’ where guests come out and chat while standing on 1st base.

Cubs – Reached out to Tampa Bay’s Andrew Friedman to take over their vacant GM job.  Unfortunately, Bartman deflected Friedman and the Cubs couldn’t make the catch.  Moises so mad!

Gordon Beckham – 2-for-4 and his 10th homer.  I told you he’d be a sleeper this year!  Deep, effin’ REM sleeper.  I hate this schmohawk.  I’d like to write Beckham’s blurb with cut-out magazine letters from the basement of an undisclosed location.

Brandon Morrow – 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Now here’s an underperforming sleeper I can get behind (every year and every year he fails to live up to expectations).

Hector Sanchez – 1-for-4.  How many Sanchezes does this team have?  Jonathan, Freddy, this other guy… Does Sabean think Sanchez translates to 35-year-old player?  Call them Tres Sanchezes and they play just outside Creme de Carmel, California.  BTW, with the addition of Hector, Sanchez just edged out Sandoval as the surname with the highest net weight in the Giants clubhouse.

Phil Humber – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Wasn’t in love with his K-rate this year and I’m not convinced it’s ever gonna nudge above 7.  Though he can maintain around a 3.75 ERA next year. #Humberbrag

Craig Kimbrel – 2/3 IP, 1 ER as he blew the save and the Braves playoff chances.  What a Wohlers.

Carl Pavano – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 3 Ks as he beat the Royals’ Bruce Chen who went 8 IP, 0 ER.  There was no actual runs in this game.  Mercy rule was called so these two teams could return home to people who care about them.

Mike Napoli – 2-for-3 and 2 more homers against Scioscia and the Angels to bring his season total to 30 homers.  Me, Napoli and his mom’s nipples have made it to the mountain top!  And it’s chilly!  Which is perfect weather.  So we have to snuggle.

Dan Johnson – Hit a huge homer for the Rays to tie up the game in the ninth.  How is Johnson even playing?  He was Pipp’d by Monoboy.  What a great day for baseball.  Speaking of which…

Evan Longoria – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs, 2 homers with one being the walk off winner that took the Rays to the postseason.  Hopefully now Longoria can forget about finding out who Tony Parker was sleeping with.

Mark Teixeira – 2 homers, 5 RBIs and… Oh, who cares?  Did you see the Rays, Braves and Red Sox games?

Cole Gillespie – Homered in the heat of the ninth.

Eric Young Jr. – 2-for-5 with his 27th steal.  I know I’m a damn fool for Young, but bear with me.  Or bare, if you’re a naturist.  He had 41 singles this year and 26 walks.  That means he was on first roughly 67 times (I say roughly because if he legged out a single and then there was an error, he’d end up on second, I’m not looking into shizz that closely).  So imagine he played in 155 games and got on first 150 times.  He’d have like a thousand steals.  Or 50+.  Either way, please let someone free Eric Young Jr. from platoon duty.  He’s got a family to feed!

Chris Carpenter – 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 11 Ks.  Sure, it was against the Astros B lineup… Wait a second, that’s not their B lineup.  Aw, Shuck.

Gio Gonzalez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 11 Ks vs. the Mariners which is worse than the Astros B lineup.

Milton Bradley – Was arrested yesterday on suspicion of battery.  No word yet on Milton Bradley’s accomplices, but I’m sure the Parker brothers will be brought in for questioning.

Stephen Strasburg – 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 10 Ks.  The Nationals season is like getting a massage at a shady parlor.  Awkward, messy, but at least you get a happy ending.