Fantasy Baseball Advice

The average for caught stealing percentage in the Major Leagues is 28% so there’s not a whole lot of clubs that believe keeping the guy at first base is of much importance.  Of course, some pitchers and catchers are just much easier than others.  I remember watching one game where John Popper stole 2nd, 3rd and home on Chris Young while Run Around was playing on the stadium’s PA.  Or maybe I just made that up.  Either way, Chris Young’s terrible but he’s also a seven foot stick of injury proneness, which is a “u” and some fiber short of pruneness.  So let’s look at some guys who are actually playing and how easy they are to steal on for fantasy baseball:

Gil Meche – Leads the league in steals allowed at 13.  That’s also more than a third of the bases stolen against Kendall.  So Kendall sucks, but Meche is making the most of his suckiness.  Or the least.  Not sure, lost myself there.

Tim Wakefield – About as obvious as Chris Young when it comes to allowing steals.  When you throw the ball 37 MPH, these things happen.

Fausto Carmona – The Indians have actually only allowed 26 steals, but Fausto has allowed 10.

Victor Martinez – Three of the top 20 worst pitchers are Sawx.  It’s not all their fault.  V-Mart’s a DH disguised as a catcher.

Bengie Molina – The throwing out baserunners’ gene definitely is not hereditary.  Bengie’s inability to throw past his belly also hurts Jonathan Sanchez, Zito and Cain; all three appear in the top 24 pitchers for stolen bases allowed.

Carl Pavano – Mauer helps only so much.  Pavano led the league last year in stolen bases allowed and he’s top 15 this year.

Ervin Santana – Teamed up with Mike Napoli and you’ll see Scioscia shake his fist at the sky at least 3 times a game.

Ryan Doumit – During the pre-All-Star Game festivities, Century 21 should pick one lucky fan to try and steal a base on the Chris Young-Ryan Doumit tandem.

Justin Upton left yesterday’s game with a sprained ankle.  It’s obviously not easy carrying around millions of fantasy baseballers’ hopes and dreams.  He hurt his ankle while stealing second, then he advanced to third and scored one batter later.  I liked Upton 1.0 better, which came with customizable speed and power but no hustle.  The good news is Upton wasn’t removed until after scoring, so it doesn’t sound serious.  Just precautionary.  It’s an exhibition, after all.  You know, like when Kenny Mayne ran Daisy Fuentes for Jerry O’Connell in the 2005 Celebrity Softball game.  Anyway, here’s some more news in fantasy baseball:

Dustin Pedroia – Left wrist sprain.  It’s spraining, men!  That’ll teach Pedroia to try and open the pickle jar all by himself.  This actually worries me more than the Upton sprain.  Injured wrists are tricky for, ya know, hitting.  He’s scheduled to take BP on Thursday so hopefully it’s very minor and the pain doesn’t have to, doesn’t have to, doesn’t have to let it linger.

Ian Desmond – With five errors this spring (as of this writing), he was making it hard for the Nats to choose him over the yawnstipating Guzman.  Nevertheless!  Jon Heyman of SI, which I believe is not a Spanish language magazine, says Desmond is going to win the starting job.  Shine on you crazy Desmond!

Jaime Garcia – Will be the Cards fifth starter.  In the minors, he showed a solid K-rate and great ground ball rates.  Strikeouts + ground balls = Success.  The only downside is his lack of experience, i.e., he can blow up in your face.  Right now, he’s a solid NL-Only sleeper, but he can easily jump onto mixed league radars.

Albert Pujols – Returned to the lineup.  Pujols eats MRIs for breakfast.

Sean Rodriguez – Zobrist will definitely be playing somewhere, but where might factor into if Matt Joyce or Sean Rodriguez play.  Sean-Rod has been hitting in the spring and has a solid pedigree.  I put Rodriguez in my top 20 2nd basemen post, and I’m a big fan if he can score an every day job.  Joyce, meanwhile, hasn’t done anything and may start the season on the DL.  If Gabe Kapler starts in lieu of Rodriguez and Joyce, then it’s welcome back 1999.

Ervin Santana – Hurt his elbow after hitting it on some furniture.  Not a broken armchair, just a slightly sore armchair, thankfully.  Word on the streets of Bobby Grichville is Ervin will be fine.

C.J. Wilson – Will be the Rangers number two starter this year.  (Feldman, Harrison and Colby Lewis will join him after Harden.  I wish the Rangers would dump Wilson and Harrison and add some guys named Astin and Brolin to Feldman.  Let’s get some Goonies up in there!)  I’d chalk up Wilson becoming a starter to the Rangers going with an innings eater, but he’s never pitched more than 74 innings any season in his career.  If Wilson can maintain his reliever K-rates, he could surprise, but I wouldn’t touch him outside of AL-Only leagues until during the season.  And even then, I’ll have a hard time adding him.

Gil Meche – Out with shoulder stiffness.  If you needed a reason to ignore him, now you have one.

Alex Gordon – Won’t be ready by Opening Day.  Not sure if this is good news or bad news for Royals, fantasy baseball owners or Gordon.  Jury’s been out for three years now.

Alberto Callapso – Hillman plans on trying Callaspo out in the three hole.  This is one of the funniest bits of news I’ve read this Spring Training.  It’s just inherently hilarious.  Callaspo a three hitter?  Ha!  Ladies and gentlemen, your peasant Royals!  If Alex Gordon was the unrealized hopes of another George Brett.  Callaspo is Kevin Seitzer.

Blake DeWitt – I might be the only one that cares about this because I drafted Belliard in my Fantasy Razzball league, but DeWitt looks like he has the inside track for the 2nd base job.  He’s a poor man’s Casey McGehee. (<–Not a compliment)

Chris Iannetta – I wish I could say Chris Iannetta is proving Olivo to be from The Department of Redundancy Department.  Still think Iannetta emerges with more ABs, but they might be pretty close to a timeshare like your Aunt Mitzi has in Boca.  Playing only four days a week, Iannetta might just be Napoli for the NL.  If only Joe Torre managed them… Or Paul Sorvino.

Andrew Bailey – Close to returning to action and should be ready for Opening Day.  Doesn’t mean another flare-up isn’t a week or so away.

Mike MacDougal – Released by the Marlins and signed by the Nats.  Capps is still the closer in Washington, but MacDougal could serve as insurance.  He was good in Washington last year and he was great in the Doobie Brothers.

Jon Niese – Just about has the 5th starter job locked up.  He hasn’t reached mixed league material yet.  In NL-Only leagues, he’s there.  He’ll get you a mid-4 ERA and a near 7 K/9.  Last round or dollar flier?  It can’t hurt.

Daniel Murphy – With Ike Davis sent down (surprisingly, Ike is not a slap hitter), Murphy has secured the 1st base job.  It won’t be pretty though.

Jose Reyes – Reyes finished first in full-squad sprints.  I’m putting it at 3 to 1 for him playing Opening Day.  Even odds says he’s back within two weeks.  The time to buy low is running out.

Gary Matthews Jr. – Okay, this is the funniest news I’ve read this Spring Training.  The Mets are shopping Gary Matthews Jr.  Reminds me of the homeless man who lives down the street selling his barely used pants.

Chad Billingsley was a fave on mine coming into the year, and he pitched great for maybe a third of a season, passable for a third and pretty forgettable for the other third.  It’s with great regret I tell you to sell him for fifty cents on the dollar in one year leagues.  He wasn’t pitching all that well for a while now and now he’s dealing with a hamstring injury.  (This injury may actually save his arm from falling off.)  In one year leagues, you need guys that are going to help you right now.  It’s August, ya’ll — thanks, Mr. Winkle calender — and Billingsley may end up on the DL.  You don’t need the headache in one year leagues, I would take the best deal I could get and grab a waiver wire pitcher that has been doing well to fill-in.  I hate selling low, but, as my old Polish neighbor used to say, what can do?  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Gil Meche – Here’s the kind of pitcher I’ll take a flier on for a 5th to 6th starter in leagues over the random Texas Rangers rookie starter of the day.  If you ignore two terrible starts from Meche out of his last ten starts, he has a 2.66 ERA.  Sure, it’s cherrypicking stats, but it’s my blog so there.

Chris Coghlan – I’ve been remiss in not mentioning Coghlan much, but he’s yawnstipating to me outside of OBP leagues.  Rocks solid eligibility, but even when he’s hot he has very mild power and some speed he doesn’t like to show.  *removing my chewed-up cigar*  It’s the bigs, kid.  Show your speed.

Alcides Escobar – SAGNOF!  Don’t expect much else unless your league credits secondary characters in Medellin.

Cliff Pennington – Isn’t this the guy who told me flip-flips weren’t appropriate footwear for the country club? No, random italicized voice.  This is the guy who’s currently hitting way over his head, but has some speed and plays middle infield.  I think he’s the guy at the country club too.

Carlos Gonzalez – CarGo is a pending trademark by Carlos Gomez, so I’m not sure we can use it for him.  Then again, Carlos Gomez may have let that lapse, like he let his career.  Carlos Gonzalez is not without his caveats, Latin Americans.  He usually only plays vs. righties.

Randy Ruiz – I don’t actually own this random outfielder schmohawk behind door number three, but I do like saying his name… Randy Ruiz, Randy Ruiz, Randy Ruiz…

Alex Gonzalez – The Sawx finally figured out their shortstop shituation.  Gonzalez isn’t worth grabbing in mixed leagues unless you’re in dire need of power at MI, but I’d grab him in an AL-Only league.

Wladimir Balentien – Transylvania’s number one son is hitting near .400 in his last 7 games, and he’s been playing nearly every day.  The average will come down, but his power could explode.  In NL-Only leagues, he should be owned.  Mixed leagues, I’d wait and see.

Trent Oeltjen – If you don’t own Oeltjen, it means you probably have some sense in your head.  I, on the other hand, lack sense.  I own him so many places it’s kinda embarrassing.  I might need utility scab rehab after the season. It would be me and five fat guys in a room talking about how we dropped Dexter Fowler after a 3-for-30 slump only to watch him steal 4 bases in his next 7 games.  Just us, and coffee, cigarettes, a bowl of assorted jellybeans that all taste like the black ones, an assortment of Danish Cookies and WD-40, because of its multi-purpose eligibility.  Yes, I’ve given this too much thought.

SELL

Junichi Tazawa – Solid Sawx prospect.  Just like they said about Buchholz, Masterson, Bard….  Wait, no, he’s a solid import like they said about Dice-K.  He’s also about 15 points short of Javier Vazquez in Scrabble.  He’ll be good in a year or two, I wouldn’t own him in non-keepers this year.

Nate McLouth – McLousy.

Vernon Wells – This isn’t a sell as much as a drop, and this isn’t for just Vernon Wells.  This is for all the guys that are currently owned because their name says they should be.  Vernon Wells hasn’t been good in a while.  Was he solid then?  Yeah, and maybe one day you’ll be sitting behind Vernon and his grandkids in a Friendly’s and you can hear all about it.  Until then, lose the nostalgia.

Tommy Hunter - For Neftali next year, I’m going to work all winter on getting used to owning a Rangers pitcher, but I just can’t get behind one right now.  Besides, Tommy Hunter?  C’mon, that’s a Witness Protection name.  He’s hiding something.

Adrian Beltre hits the DL with Jockular Sphincteritis as a grounder clipped one of his testicles.  It’s the best contact he’s made all season.  When reached for comment, Beltre said, “Aw, nuts!”  After being badgered, he yelled, “Stop busting my balls!”  Turns out, Beltre doesn’t wear a protective cup.  He claims it’s uncomfortable.  You know what else is uncomfortable?  A bleeding testicle.  Beltre could be out for the season, but he hasn’t really been much use this year so his owners shouldn’t worry.  On a related note, I wonder if he’ll let his teammates sign his cast.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jonny Gomes – 3 HRs.  Half of me (the Lily Tomlin half) wishes Dusty would start benching Gomes again for no good reason, because I don’t own him anywhere.  – Quote from Grey after he picked up Wladimir Balentien for Thursday’s short schedule day.

Bronson Arroyo – 9 IP, 3 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Arroyo was on my list of pitchers to watch in the 2nd half, and he now has 4 straight solid starts and only one poor start since the All-Star Game.  MLB’s Non-approved supplements + marginal pitchers = fantasy gold.

Jorge Cantu – HR yesterday.  He is so long overdue for a hot streak it’s not even funny.  Man, the hot April guys are the hardest to cut, aren’t they?

Hideki Matsui – 2 HRs yesterday to bring his total to 19.  He just needs about 6 more homers to really confuse people next year when it comes time to draft.  “Hmm… need one more outfielder… Screw it, I’ll grab Matsui.  He’s good for 25 homers.  That’s Jason Kubel-ish!”  Slot Matsui in for two weeks, snooze alarm goes off and drop him.

Jake Peavy – Three shutout innings in his rehab start and two baserunners.  His Sox debut is set for the 28th vs. the Yankees.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 5-for-5, as he bats .283 away from Petco.  Do you think any Padres hitters have a no trade clause?

Mike Rivera – 2 HRs yesterday.  I saw the homers listed next to M. Rivera and I really thought Mariano hit two homers for the Brewers.  I’d prefer to own Mariano.

Victor Martinez/Ryan Howard – Both stole bases yesterday.  According to Elias Sports Bureau, this was the first time two slow guys stole a base on the same day since Bob Horner and Steve Balboni stole a base in 1985.  Actually, they didn’t say that, but here’s something that was overheard this week at the Elias Sports Bureau compound, “For a record five times this week, Ken, in the mailroom, advised the company to save money by putting the intended address in the return address field and leaving off the postage, so the Post Office ‘returns’ the mail where it’s supposed to go.”

Matt Capps – 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Kazaam!

Dexter Fowler – 4-for-5 yesterday.  Nice, but it’s not HAGNOF, it’s SAGNOF!

Jason Marquis – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  If you started him here, nay, if you own Marquis, you have cojones.  Speaking of Joneses.

Garrett Jones – 0-for-4, 4 Ks.  Me and Mr. Jones, our thing is no longer going on.

Prince Fielder – 2 HRs.  Okay, but Ryan Howard and Victor Martinez stole bases.

Gil Meche – 5 IP, 4 ER, in his return.  He’ll be covered more in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  If you’re a time traveler from the future, don’t spoil it for anyone.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks.  My head is spinning from how many Ks Verlander is racking up?  My head isn’t meant to spin!

Clay Buchholz – 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 Ks.  He has enough major league innings under his belt that I would give him a chance if he were on waivers, but beware the unbalanced schedule.

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 6 ER.  I wouldn’t own Dempster.  I said it in the beginning of the year and I haven’t wavered on him once.  (Clever pun point for Grey.)

Shane Victorino – 2-for-5 as he filed charges against the guy who threw beer on him.  I could see if he threw the beer on Josh Hamilton, but c’mon, it’s Wrigley.

Neftali Feliz – Has 13 Ks in 6 innings and only one baserunner (a solo homer to Adam Kennedy).  MR. B’s unite.

Josh Hamilton – 4-for-4, 2 RBIs and 1 Run.  Let’s hope this good day doesn’t send him on a misbehavior spiral.  Hopefully he just gets another tattoo and calls it a day.

CC Sabathia left his start with biceps tightness.  Or is it bicep?  Hmm…  Either way, it’s not great to hear about an arm issue with your fantasy ace.  Right now they’re saying no tests are even necessary.  Give me two hundred CCs of a White Russian and I’m asking this, you pay one hundred trillion dollars for a player and then you don’t send him for tests when he hurts his bicep(s)?  Are they joking?  Seriously, is this Candid Camera?  I thought I saw my Adam Lambert poster’s eyes move.  Is there a camera behind there?  Send me a signal, throw me a line.  Hopefully, tests aren’t necessary because it’s so obviously not a problem.  They don’t need to administer tests for how Sabathia feels about his new home park, The Jetstream.  To the left, to the left… Now, up, baby, up… He has a 3.99 ERA at home and 3.35 away.  His 6 K/9 is more troubling.  That would be the lowest mark of his career.  Even last year in April when he was struggling, he was K’ing more than one batter per inning.  Hopefully in the 2nd half of the year he can rearrange the girth and makes things right.  (Fun with anagrams!)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Disgraceful List just got one more as the Sawx made room for Smoltz.  Neither funny nor that insightful, but you’d think there would be some kind of rule by the MLB that teams can’t just DL someone because they’re ineffective.

Ryan Howard – In and out of the hospital with a fever.  Phillies doctors said he’d be fine, he just ate a quart of ice cream too fast and his body temperature was trying to overcompensate.

Carlos Beltran – Going for an MRI on Monday for his knee even though he complained days ago and played on Sunday.  Um, okay.  Supposedly he only has pain when he decelerates abruptly.  Here’s an idea, slide!

Endy Chavez – Out for the season so Transylvania’s favorite son, Wladimir Balentien, should get the starts.  Now the Mariners just need all of their major league and minor league catchers to hurt themselves so they have to play Jeff Clement.

Casey McGehee – HR yesterday.  Has 10 homer power, but right now he’s scorching hot, batting over .400 for the last week.  He’s worth a flier over the schmohawk behind door number 3.  For what it’s worth, last week I dropped Kennedy for McGehee in one league.

Chris Coghlan – 3-for-4, 3 Runs.  According to ESPN, Coghlan’s only owned in 3.1% of leagues.  Actually, I kinda understand that.  In June, he has 1 homer and 3 steals.  Excuse me while I burp.

Don Kelly – 2-for-4 and batting .417 since his callup.  He’s a minor league journeyman who has some light speed.  Not speed of light.  Totally different thing.

Aaron Harang – 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 Ks.  It’s like 2008 never happened.  But, you know what?  I remember it.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  Note from the author (me).  This was sent in by a longtime reader, Tarasco’s Secret Stash, “Ortiz’s swing this year has been interesting to watch evolve lately, and it’s finally clicking. Dave Magadan first tried the Drew back-shoulder tap as his first timing correction, but that didn’t really seem to get him out of his funk. Papi was rocking that timing mechanism for a couple weeks in May, until they started trying his current approach, which is much quieter and more vertical. He’s setting his hands smoothly now, Hideki Matsui style, instead of waggling the bat or cocking his wrists, and he’s instead leaving the hands up higher and the wrists more loaded. That’s letting him dip slightly to load his weight back while keeping the wrists much more steady, and it’s keeping his swing plane on the ball better. His hip rotation is still strong, which is the best sign for him going forward. He’s able to turn through balls as well as years past, and he seems to have rediscovered his bat path over the last couple weeks. He’s drilling the ball to left center at Fenway of late.”

Dallas Braden – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Solid fill-in for this week without Peavy.  I’m sticking for now and going with him in Oakland vs. the Rox in his next start.  If I were feeling particularly lucky, I’d roll the dice with Cahill (vs. SF, COL) or Garrett Olson (vs. Padres, LAD) this week.  I’m not feeling lucky, but some of youse may be.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  The Wandwagon rolls again.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Nice start vs. the Nats.  I’d take a flier on him for a fifth to sixth fantasy starter.

Lyle Overbay – Hit his 9th homer yesterday with 5 RBIs.  You’re showing Derrek Lee and the dealer’s showing Lyle Overbay.  That’s a push.

Khalil Greene – Two games, two homers.  Now that he has his emotional baggage safely stored in his overhead compartment, he’s mollywopping the ball.  Worth a flier for cheap power at your MI spot.

Gil Meche – 3 1/3 IP, 9 ER.  It was the Cards, man.  The Cards.  Pitch around Pujols (who had 6 RBIs in this game).  Pitch. Around. Him.  Come on!

Michael Cuddyer – HR yesterday.  Hitting .444 over his last week with 2 homers, which is also known as Joe Mauer every week.

Geovany Soto – HR yesterday.  Clearly he’s found his power stroke with 3 homers this month, but he’s still batting .238 in June and only has 6 RBIs all month.

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Got the Win after 6 starts when he could’ve easily been victorious.  I’m still not endorsing him past matchups and his next matchup’s kinda eh.

Kevin Millwood – 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Finally listened to Nolan Ryan as he emphasized the importance of the K.

Chris Davis – Over the weekend, Davis became the fastest man ever to 100 Ks.  Maybe Nolan Ryan should be careful about to who he’s emphasizing the importance of the K.

Troy Tulowitzki – 3-for-3.  His average has been on the rise all monthowitzki.

Matt Holliday – 0-for-4, batting .269 on the year with 8 homers.  Where’s that blogger/guy/doode who in the preseason said Holliday just needed to get familiar with Oakland then it would all start clicking?  Is he familiar yet?

Jeremy Accardo – Left yesterday’s game after tweaking something on his right side.  Eddie Vedder says, “Jeremy’s broken…”