Fantasy Baseball Advice

Chipper Jones says he thinks he injured himself while running out of the batter’s box. For a baseball player, this seems like a pretty innocuous place to injure themselves. How exactly do you get injured coming out of a batter’s box? Swing, turn, run. A layperson (you and I) does not come out of a batter’s box, but a similarly innocuous place might be, say, a bathroom. So imagine a buddy told you he hurt himself taking a crap. Previous week, he strained something showering. Couple of weeks ago, while putting unicorn jizz (that’s what I call toothpaste) on his toothbrush, he pulled a metacarpal. Previously, he’s broke a toe changing the TP, popped an eardrum Q-Tipping, sliced off a piece of nose while shaving, got a hernia while toweling off and he got a Grade 3 windburn from a blow dryer. Would you think your friend was a good bet to stay healthy until October? Yeah, me neither. As for Wainwright, this strikes me as really bad luck for his owners (which is me for many teams). He says that he should be fine and there’s no official word. I doubt official word is at all positive. Brace yourself for different options. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Matt Garza/Dioner Navarro – Had a scuffle in the dugout yesterday, causing Garza to get pulled early. Going forward this is a problem for one of my teams because I have both guys. Here’s my plan of action, I’m going to sit Navarro whenever Garza pitches, but in the meantime I’m going to have my corner infielder, Helton, talk to both of them about the importance of the Lord, charity and all of that. Then I’m going to bring Keith Foulke in to talk to both guys because– Wait, this is fantasy baseball, not real. Oh, yeah, then Dioner and Garza will be fine.

Kyle Lohse – 7-2. The “h” in his name is like a precarious Jenga piece.  At some point it will be pulled out, his success will collapse, and all he’ll do for your team is Lose.

Kevin Slowey – 8 ER in 3 IP. Another outing like that and he’s on the short bus back to AAA.

Aaron Harang – I’m trying not to blame that long relief outing still, but…. Ugh. He’s an excellent buy low candidate right now. He is better than his numbers.

Alexei Ramirez – 3-for-4 with a home run. The Alex(e)i with the ‘e’ is showing the Alexi without the ‘e’ they’re only similar in almost names.

Mark Reynolds – Now 6 home runs in 15 games. If you remember from the beginning of the season, Reynolds is what you call streaky.

Nick Swisher – Getting hot. If he’s on your waivers, he’s absolutely worth a pickup. He’s valuable when he’s hot.

Jason Giambi – 14th home run. Much like Ron Jeremy, Giambi sports a ’stache, swings a big bat, and appears out of shape and over the hill.

Luke Scott – From the files of abandoned outfielders that never produced, here comes another streaky hitter. Hit two home runs yesterday. Might hit three more in the next week. Cust kayin’.

Gavin Floyd – He has a 20/1 K/BB ratio in his last three starts. And his first name is Gavin. What’s not to like?

Wandy Rodriguez – Lost to the Cards, but his line doesn’t look awful. Only allowed four hits and no earned runs. 7 Ks.

Mark Teixeira – PABST has five HRs in the last 11 games. Might have officially turned the corner into a full season stud or FABST? Um… Not sure about this one anymore.

Justin Masterson – That’s it. You got what you got. I wouldn’t start him in his next start.

Curtis Granderson – I was happy to see Granderson hit a HR, but I was even happier to see him bat ninth. That makes a lot more sense than Miggy in the sixth hole.

Ryan Tucker – Must Die. I’d bid maybe a $1 in NL-Only leagues, but that’s about it.

BJ Upton – Two home runs in three days. Maybe this is when the power streak comes on. Then again, it was in Texas and Ramon Vazquez is hitting in Texas.

Vernon Wells – Not only came back early from a wrist injury, but hit a home run yesterday. I’d try and sell him quickfast.

Jose Guillen – Just in case you missed it, he hit 3 HR and 9 RBI over the weekend at Yankee Stadium. That’s now 9 HR and 45 RBI for the year (albeit with 25 R and .262 AVG).  Between this and Milton Bradley’s triple crown run, 2008 is shaping up as the year of the crazy. Jose had a incredibly silent 23/99/.290 last year in Seattle after some troubles in Washington, but he’s worth taking a flier on if he’s hanging around on the FA wire.  BTW, how incredibly dull is Carlos Guillen in comparison to Jose and Ozzie Guillen?  Jose and Ozzie Canseco were pretty nutty too.

Today, I noticed my diploma from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston was a bit dusty and hanging crooked. So, I removed it from the wall, gave it a spit shine, polished the wood frame and fixed the wire so it would hang straight. Before I returned it to its rightful place next to my framed TV Guide cover of Miss Piggy and Kermit, I took a hard look at that diploma. I thought back on of all my classes with Matthew Berry, who insistently hit on all of the undergrads, male or female. I reminisced about hanging in the CFB quad with Rudy as we hacky-sacked and discussed a classmate’s trade of Alfonso Soriano for Dustin Hermanson. I remember being young and free and unable to get laid. Now many years later, and still unable to get laid, I miss those days. I miss the carefree attitude. The excitement I felt when a player would get hot and I would think he can hit .800 for the year. Or the frustration when a first round pick went 1-for-5. “Why can’t they go 4-for-5 every day,” I would yell at Prof. Berry. Alas, the highs and lows are gone. But, thankfully, in its place is patience. So now I know Robinson Cano refuses to hit in the first half of the season. This season is no different. Last year, post All-Star Break he went 53/13/57/.343. Pre-All-Star break, in almost 50 more at-bats, he went 40/6/40/.274 and three of those home runs came in July. In ‘06, more of the same shizz. This would make him a prime Buy Low guy. Hmm… Maybe those fourteen years weren’t wasted getting my CFB diploma. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Troy Percival – As mentioned in the comments yesterday, Percy hurt himself and Wheeler came in to finish out the game. If Wheeler’s gone, go for Reyes if you have room.

Melky Cabrera – Of course he goes 2-for-4 on my bench. I love your name, Melky, I hate what you do to me.

Joba Chamberlain – He’s going to make his first major league start next Tuesday. This is subject to verification because I heard it from the Orioles announcers, who also manage to find positives about Mora, Millar and Ramon/Luis Hernandez, so they’re not that reliable. Though I will say they are a lot better than the YES announcers. Seriously, when I was a kid we had Rizzuto calling a black guy White and talking about huckleberries. This is not nostalgia talking. Scooter got into the Hall of Fame because of that nonsense (not officially, but still). Where have all of the good announcers gone? YES, I’m talking to you, Michael Kay.

Andy Pettitte – Rudy swears by this guy in deep leagues. I think Rudy’s caca-cuckoo. You make the call!

Adam Wainwright – You know what Wednesday means, right? Top Chef and The Real World: Hollywood! It also means a bunch of my pitchers went today, but I guess that’s more of a coincidence than anything. Wainwright does no wrong! It’s kind of a pun. Now groan!

Jeremy Guthrie – Another Grey pitcher!  I like him more than most and less than his Mom. Go figure!

Zach Greinke – Rudy gave me this schmohawk for Melky. Rudy has since dropped Melky. Wow, who’s winning this trade? Rudy’s been Greinke’d! (Yes, it’s a verb now.)

Jermaine Dye – Hit a home run yesterday. Last month, I picked him off waivers in my ‘pert league. I thought it was a bit crazy at the time that he was dropped, but since then Granderson’s been traded for Johan, and Rios was dropped by a team that held onto David DeJesus, so you just never know.

Chase Utley – You want regrets? I have a few. One is not having Utley in any league. I think I only could’ve had him in one league because of where I drafted. Alas… Nothing.

Jose Reyes – He’s at 7/16 and .279. Weren’t people saying he’s having a bad year? I love Reyes. (BTW, wouldn’t it be great if someone drafted Jose A. Reyes with their first pick? “What do you mean he’s only elgibile at catcher? He’s 0-for-his last two seasons? No, there’s got to be some kind of mistake. Wait, I’ll take a Molina!” “Which one?” “Um…. Alfred?”)

Cody Ross – 2 home runs. I wonder if his last name used to be Rosenweig.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Another guy I’m fond of, but I don’t have him any leagues. Yet.

Jason Giambi – Here’s my theory: they tested Giambi for ‘roids in April.

Joe Saunders – 5 ER in 5 IP. There’s a correction to ease your trigger finger about picking him up.

Jake Peavy – Had a promising sideline throwing session and might be back as early as this weekend. Figure he’ll be out at least 10 more days but, nonetheless, this is best case news for Peavy owners. This might be the last time you can get Peavy at a discount.

Pitching – We’d rave more about Bedard, Halladay, Harden, and Zambrano if it weren’t for the fact that Lowe, Wakefield, and Suppan also pitched well. You know it’s an odd day when San Francisco scores more than both teams combined in the majority of games.

Travis Hafner – He’s shown nothing so far and is playing with a bum shoulder (2 cortisone shots and counting). Evidently sore shoulders are harder to play with than high-grade tears of the elbow. When you start your career as a 27-year old DH, the clock’s ticking and it’s already a quarter to 12. Like a comet with a really big head, Pronk appeared out of nowhere, shone brightly, and seems to be disappearing just as fast.

Rafael Soriano – Picture John Smoltz is Nic Cage. Now picture Soriano is a bird. Okay, now picture Manny Acosta is a brown jacket. Finally, Will Ohman is a grey shirt. Okay, here’s the Braves closing picture.

J.R. Towles – 109 AB hitting .147. No SB. Makes you long for the salad days of Brad Ausmus.

Bowden Fluffer (noun) – A young, nubile outfielder that gets one all excited about their 5 tools but never fulfills the promise. See Justin Upton (May=.203, 1 HR, 34 Ks), Adam Jones, Cameron Maybin, Felix Pie, et. al.

I put “Should I trade Frenchy?” into Google’s French translator. The translator steered me towards Kayak.com. So naturally, I flew to France. Stayed at a lovely hostel in the Arrondissement 4 right in the heart of the fabled Latin Quarter. The joie de vivre from the mix of students was intoxicating (and so was the wine!). When I asked a garçon at the local café about Francoeur, I talked in my worst French accent, but no strange, sideways looks. Locals embraced me and my American flag t-shirt. One Frenchman, who I asked about Francoeur, took me by the arm and whispered in my ear, “The answer is right under your nose.” I replied, “The only thing under my nose is your smell.” “No,” he explained, “The answer is in your heart.” I laughed and said, “Thank you, Yoda-like Frenchmen. Maybe when your daughter shaves her pits, we’ll meet again.” Arriving back in the States, I realized he was correct, the answer was right under my nose. I can’t find one single reason to not think Francoeur will turn around his early season power outage. So why can’t he? His BABIP is fine; Ks actually aren’t bad at all. Is he being more selective? Not really. But whatever, he never was. Is he still hitting doubles? Yup. Ground balls up? Well, they are literally up, as in his fly balls are okay. A compilation of expert projections has him hitting at least 22 more home runs. I think he gets 25 more. Since he currently sits at 3, that makes him a Buy guy. Like Sam Cooke said, “Change gonna come, nephew.” Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:

BUY

Salomon Torres – My favorite to replace Gagne (BTW, put Gagne into French translator and it came back with, “Backne.” Weird!). Can he do the job? I’m not convinced but The Backne Situation™ could get worse before it gets better. If I were a betting man (and I am, just not on this particular situation), I’d say Backne gets 22 saves, Torres 12, Mota 3.

Dontrelle Willis – I liked him (very sorta, kinda, a little) coming into the season and soon he returns to the Tigers. There’s some value there. How much? Well, I’d drop a middle reliever for a flier on Willis, but not much more. I would not start him his first time out. Or second.

Ian Snell – I think his price has reached rock bottom by this point. I would definitely drop a marginal player on my team for him. I would also not start him the first time out. (And, yes, I do have a school girl crush on all NL starters.)

Juan Pierre – Okay, whose eyes just bugged out of their sockets? Yes, I’m telling you to buy Pierre. I think his value is way down and he’s still doing what you want from him. However, I would not give a lot.

Jermaine Dye – Someone dropped him in one of my ‘pert leagues last week. (I don’t understand it either.) So I picked him up and he’s hit three home runs in the last three days. Can Dye keep it up? Here, I’ll text you the answer: Y not?

Carlos Quentin – By this point, I don’t expect he’s available in any league, but even in shallow leagues he should be picked up.

Kevin Slowey – Yes, I like NL starters, but occasionally an AL-er sneaks through. Don’t drop anyone you’ll regret, but Slowey’s been a bit of a favorite of mine for a while. Last Triple-A season, he had a 107/18 K/BB ratio, that’s solid, ya’ll.

Ben Francisco – Has 15/15 upside, just needs the at-bats (like 500 of them), but he’s started off well, hitting seventh, second and fifth in the last three games respectively. He definitely will see at-bats against lefties, so in AL-Only leagues, he could be a platoon-mate for an outfielder.

Franklin Gutierrez – Honestly, I could put the entire Indians team, except Hafner, on the Buy list. They’re all underperforming.

Jason Giambi – He goes on streaks where he hits a few home runs and shows flashes of ‘roided Giambi.

Nick Swisher – I don’t think that highly of Swisher, but he’s not as bad as he’s been. Just keep expectations in line. Caveat emptor for those in Latin America. ¡Hola!

Ryan Howard – He will not hit .165 the rest of the season unless he gets traded to the Rockies and starts at shortstop and their Shortstop Injury Curse hits him.

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta will toil away/Until judgement day/You will be rewarded for the good things he did/Believe me every year/There is another one here/Don’t you see Iannetta used to be the new kid… (BTW, this reference was for maybe two readers. Don’t try and figure it out if you don’t get it. Just buy their new album next Tuesday. They’re much better than that crap movie, The Breakup, that they were featured in. Trust me.)

Dioner Navarro – He will never be spoken of again. Pick him up or not; it is after all your team.

Blake DeWitt – Elias Sports Bureau, in conjunction with Jayson Stark, announced that the third base situation for the Dodgers is the first time in the history of baseball that a guy (DeWitt) is blocking another guy (LaRoche) and they both have a capital letter three letters into their last names. (Actually, that’s completely fabricated by me, but it sounds like something the ESB would say. Here’s some more things recently overheard at the Elias Sports Bureau, “That is the first time in thirty years that someone has drank Tang at lunch while using a stapler.” “The parking lot has 17 empty spots for the first time since 2006.” “That is the first time Gary has ever said, ‘Excuse me,’ after burping.”  Anyway, DeWitt’s hot. You can do worse in all leagues. *cough* Longoria *cough*

SELL

Justin Verlander – See this morning’s post.

Tim Lincecum – Now, Papa Smurf, don’t comment later in the day that you traded Lincecum for Slowey, Giambi and box of Munchkin donuts. I like Munchkins as much as the next guy, but Lincecum is worth more than that. I’m only telling you to sell him because you probably could grab two top OFs with him. His BABIP actually tells us that he’s been unlucky, if you can believe that. So get what you need, but don’t sell him short. Stick to your guns with ‘cum! (That’s a line right out of “The Magnificent Semen,” a remake of the Japanese classic, “The Semen Samurai.”)

Chipper Jones – He’s having an unreal beginning to the season. But here’s what we know from past seasons, he’s still very injury-prone. If you can move him for Ryan Howard or Edwin Encarnacion and McClouth or… Well, you get the picture. When Chipper’s on the DL in a month, don’t forget you had an option to move him.

Rich Harden – Please trade him. I’m begging you. You have like a millisecond before the next injury comes.

Eric Hinske – These early season home runs are a nice story. (Actually, it’s not that nice… It’s not even really a story.) If you can drop Hinske for a worthwhile middle reliever, I would do it.

Mariano Rivera – I don’t think he starts throwing Livan Hernandez-type eephus pitches, but he’s just saves more or less. If someone in your league, thinks Ray’s Original Pizza is freakin’ awesome and tawks about their honeymoon to the Jersey Shore, then maybe you trade Mo to them.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 New York Yankees preview.)

The 2008 Yankees greatly resemble the team from the second half of 2007—a team which had a better winning percentage post all-star break than that of 1998—with the exception of a couple additions to the bullpen and a new manager.

The Yankees will likely compete with the Tigers for the best offense in the American League, but their starting pitching is heavily dependent on young pitchers that have a lot of expectations on their shoulders.  They have no proven ace yet, but many think Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain could eventually fill this roll.  However, Joba will be starting the season in the bullpen, which is both a testament to his excellence out of the pen and the uncertainties the Yankees have in that area.

If they stay healthy, and everyone on the Yankees, especially the young talent, plays up to their full potential, the Yankees could be the team to beat, but that’s assuming a lot works out, and without considering the growing pains they’re likely to experience, especially with Joe Girardi in his first year as Yankees’ manager.

For the Fantasy Buffs:

Likely Opening Day Line-Up:

1. Johnny Damon, LF:  Much better in left than center or DH.  Solid lead off guy, when he’s healthy.  Good speed.  Doesn’t hit much for power.

2. Derek Jeter, SS:  Clutch athlete, but not likely to do a whole lot for your fantasy team outside of hits.   Doesn’t hit for power.  Smart baserunner.  Declining fielder.

3. Bobby Abreu, RF:  Underrated, slow start last year due to injury.  Will get you 100 RBI, with some power.  Strong arm, but not the best outfielder.  Not a bad addition to your line-up.

4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B:  MUST HAVE.  Lead the league in Home Runs and RBI last year, and while he might not equal the numbers, he’s likely a lock to hit at least 40 HR and 100 RBI.  Underrated fielder.  Stays healthy.  Should go #1 or 2 for non-pitchers in your draft.

5. Jorge Posada, C:  Coming off of career year.  Unlikely to repeat his .330, 20 HR season, but he’ll give you some solid hits and good defense behind the plate.  Switch hitter.  36 years old.  Mauer is likely a better fantasy pick for catcher, but Jorge is invaluable for the Yankees.

6. Jason Giambi, DH:  Missed much time last year with a foot injury.  Better player the more he plays.  Not the Giambi of Oakland As.

7. Shelley Duncan 1B:  Sleeper pick.  Wasn’t supposed to hit as well on Major League level as he has and he has shown a good eye.  Will likely be in a 1B platoon, still learning the position.

8. Robinson Canò, 2B:  One of the best 2B in the league.  Hits for average and power.  Good fielder that can look sloppy at times.  Slow on the basepath and doesn’t make good baseruning decisions.

9. Melky Cabrera, CF:  Solid CF. Doesn’t hit for power, but a good hitter for the nine spot.  Doesn’t hit for average, but can bunt and sac RBI.  Great arm but takes bad routes to the ball on occasion.  Switch hitter.

Rotation:

Chien Ming Wang:  Will find ways to wind games, sinker ball pitcher, but high ERA and WHIP.  Not a good addition for a fantasy team, though he is working on improving his strikeout totals.

Andy Pettitte:  Solid left hander.  If he’s healthy, he’s an excellent, dependable addition, but he’s been known to have elbow issues.  Press is likely to attempt to make HGH issue a distraction.

Mike Mussina:  Coming off a bad year and horrible August.  Can’t make any mistakes or gets hammered.  Probably the weakest link in the Yankees’ rotation.

Phil Hughes:  Prized ‘rookie’, who’s not technically a rookie any more.  Excellent make-up, and projected to put up big numbers.  However, he’s young and untested over the full course of the season.  Under innings cap and potential injury concern.

Ian Kennedy:  Sleeper Pick.  Of the Yankees’ “big three” he is supposed to be the most polished.  Location pitcher.  Untested.

Bullpen:

Mariano Rivera:  One of the game’s best closers.  Elite.  Usually has a poor April, but will be an excellent strikeout pitcher.

Kyle Farnsworth:  Inconsistent.  Overpowering fastball, but poor location.

LaTroy Hawkins:  New addition.  Low risk, high-reward type signing.

Joba Chamberlain:  Had a 0.38 ERA last year out of the bullpen, giving up one home run to Mike Lowell.  Great for strikeout totals.  Loses effectiveness in second inning of work.

Bench:

Wilson Betemit:  Can play all infield positions, but a weak hitter.  Has some power from the left, but none from the right.

Hideki Matsui:  Left fielder, coming off of a bad knee injury.  Might start season on the DL.  Okay fielder, good hitting addition if he gets regular playing time.

Jose Molina:  Excellent back up catcher.  Great defensively and good enough with the bat.  Doesn’t hit for a ton of power but will get doubles.  Too slow for triples.

Morgan Ensberg:  Sleeper pick.  Had All Star numbers before injuring his shoulder.  If he fully recovers, he could be an excellent addition.

Rebecca

If readers are interested, then you can find Rebecca’s blog at Purist Bleeds Pinstripes.