Fantasy Baseball Advice

Frenchy’s back, Jordan Schafer’s going to hit 161 home runs (accounting for one rainout, of course) and McCann’s going to win the MVP.  Oh, and Lowe’s winning the Cy Young.  Unanimous.  Spring has sprung and baseball’s back.  It’s a good time to be alive.  Aren’t you glad you didn’t eat any peanuts in the last three months?  They’re poisonous, ya’ll.  (It’s a wonder Jimmy Carter’s still going strong.  He is a superhero.)  Right now, I feel like putting some tilapia on the grill, an Olde English in an oversized cozy and kicking back for the next six months while the sounds of baseball dance in my head.  Oh, and win all my fantasy baseball leagues; that would be nice too.  The number one thing you don’t want to do in the next few weeks is overrate anything you see.  You’re not winning your league in the first few weeks, but you can sure as heckfire lose them.  As inviting as Jordan Schafer seems right now, don’t drop Milton Bradley for him.  Even if Milton does the devil’s work.  Jordan Schafer’s an intriguing name in deep leagues.  Just don’t jump out the window until you see how real the fire is.  On the other hand, don’t ignore what goes on these first few weeks.  This is when The ’08 Nadys (<–great band name) emerge.  Anyway, here’s what I saw this weekend for fantasy baseball:

Joey Devine – Aching Joey Devine is out for 60 days.  Punt!  Not worth holding a “potential” closer who may not be back for a while.

Gary Sheffield – Omar Minaya must’ve heard Sheff was raised in a Latin district of Tampa.  Not worth looking at in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Ichiro Suzuki – Bleeding ulcer, out until April 15th.  Endy Chavez will be batting leadoff on opening day.  Good to see the Mariners have a Plan B.  See Razzpoll on the bottom right for possible reasons behind Ichiro’s ulcer.

Derek Lowe – 8 innings, 0 runs.  Had a 2.88 ERA last April and has started off this one on a good note.  Next start, Washington.  Yum.

Josh Anderson -  Will get the nod for the Tigers in the opening today.  Has little power, but speed to burn — SAGNOF.

Brandon Morrow – Will close from the onset of the year.  If you think you’re being cute with Aardsma or Mark Lowe or Batista, you’re not.

Elijah Dukes – 4th outfielder to start the season.  Was on the Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell on Friday as a Sell.  I wonder if Dukes is angry.

David Freese – Just when you think you’ve got LaRussa figured out, he plays Brian Barden at third in the Cards first game.  It’s only against lefties… supposedly.

Jeff Francoeur – HR yesterday.  Could this be the start of something?  

Kelly Shoppach – Getting time behind the plate in the first game with Garko sitting.  Encouraging sign, except for Garko owners.

Brian Wilson – Boo-boo healed. Will get saves to open the season.

Matt Lindstrom – Ready to go for opening day.  Aren’t we all?

B.J. Ryan – No velocity, no cry.  He’s the closer to start the season.

Mark Reynolds/Justin Upton – Sitting tomorrow against the “tough” righty, Aaron Cook.  Let’s hope for a speedy collision between Chad Tracy and Eric Byrnes.

Brett Myers – This time on the other side of a beating.  Was on our risky pitcher post.  Am I worried?  Not really, but I didn’t go near him in any draft either.

Mike Gonzalez – Our first Kazaam! of the season.  It’s good to be back.

Losing Gary Sheffield from your fantasy baseball team is about the best thing that could’ve happened to you if you owned him. This isn’t really a big fantasy story as far as Sheff goes.  He was a decrepit ex-roider.  (He was a great hitter to watch in his prime and it’s sad when great players devolve into nomadic, expensive NVORPS (negligible value over replacement players).  For every neat and tidy retirement like Ripken and Gwynn, there seems to be at least three like this.) The best thing that could happen is he ends his career at 499 homers.  Instant karma’s gonna get you.  What this does do is open up a spot for someone else.  As I said in the comments yesterday, “The Thames runs through it.”  Damn, I’m pithy.  I’m like Charles Nelson Reilly on The Match Game pithy.  RIP, C N R, you were one of a kind… Until me.  Marcus Thames is a source of 20 – 25 HRs and a .240 average.  Not bad for AL-only but not remarcusable.  He usually only plays against lefties, so I’m not sure if Sheff’s departure gives him that many more ABs.  He’s a masher to watch.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Joey Devine – Now Aching Joey Devine is off to see Dr. Freeze.  Ugh.  This never turns out well.  Casilla is Ziegler’s handcuff for the time being.

Scott Lewis – Gave up 10 runs in less than 4 innings.  As I said last week when he got the starting job, you don’t really want him.

Justin Duchscherer – Surgery went well.  A stitch without a hitch!  (Alliteration in lieu of wit.)  He’ll be back by June.  Wake me when I care.

Emmanuel Burriss – Webster won the 2nd base job!  The cherubby 2B stole 51 SB in a minor league season and SAGNOF is better at MI than OF.

David Murphy – As I said in my fantasy baseball 300, platoon this doode with Byrd.

Alexi Casilla – Why does every starting MI in the AL Central have a Russian first name?  The Tigers need Edgar back to round out the Perestroika.  Casilla’s hitting over .400 in spring training and he stole 50 SBS at A/AA in 2006 then 11 in a short stint with the Twins in 2007.  But he only stole 7 last year in 385 ABs with the Twins.  At MI, it doesn’t really matter if you need steals.

Alexei Ramirez – Fellow comrade was back in the lineup and again in the eight hole.  Diamonds are from Sierra Leone and Ozzie’s from Mars.  I’m not going to stress this yet, but if it continues into the season, Ozzie and I will be having words.

Russell Branyan – Having a nice spring.  When Branyan grows up, he wants to be Jack Cust.

Huston Street – Announced he’ll find out by Thursday if he’s the closer.  I think he gets over that last… *pinkie to mouth* Hurdle.

Ryan Braun – Left the game yesterday with a bruised thumb.  X-rays turned up negative.  I hear that means it’s positive.  Not sure why they can’t just say that.

Dexter Fowler – Made the club.  Keepers and NL-Only’ers rejoice.

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) was optioned to The Big Easy.  The opening for Bonifacio appears to widen.

Jeff Keppinger – Big trade came in off the wire yesterday.  Keppinger to the Astros.  Now that’s how to build a team up after losing Ausmus.  We were rooting for Bill Bialystock from Houston’s Double-A affiliate in Corpus Christi to get promoted and platoon with Blum.  Now that’s a platoon that can produce!

Geoff Blum – Seems pretty puzzled that he’s in the running for opening day 3rd baseman, saying “There’s an outside chance. I’m not going to believe it until I see my name in the lineup or they give me the OK…”  Geoff added, “I can’t believe my wife has sex with me.  I don’t believe she’s going to let me until I have it halfway in.”

Before we take our 2009 fantasy baseball rankings to the arms, we look at the top 5 designated hitters for 2009 fantasy baseball.  These players are only eligible at Utility.  Frankly, I don’t think you should draft any of these hitters.  They don’t allow enough flexibility.  For example, what if you had David Ortiz clogging up your Utility spot last year and you really wanted to pick up Jayson Werth but had 5 outfielders already?  You would’ve been S to the Crewed.  If you want some perspective on where these 5 designated hitters fall in the big picture, look at our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  As always, this top 5 for 2009 will be broken up into tiers, and their 2009 projections will be included.  Anyway, here’s the top 5 designated hitters for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. David Ortiz – This is the first tier. This tier goes from here to Thome.  I call this tier, “David Ortiz and Jim Thome.”  Ortiz just turned a Latin 33 and is easily coming off his worst season in six years.  Was it the knee?  Was it the wrist?  Was it the real birth certificate that says he’s actually 47 years old?  I can’t say for sure, but I’m not counting on much of a rebound season.  Though some ‘perts are.  At Utility, it’s not worth the risk.  2009 Projections:  85/27/110/.285

2. Jim Thome – As Adam Dunn should say, “Thome is the Founding Father of Country Strong.”  2009 Projections:  85/30/100/.250

3. Travis Hafner – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I like to call this tier, “For sadomasochists only.” As some of you might remember, I had faith in Hafner going into last year.  Then some time in May, Hafner let me see behind the curtain and he looked like Zelda Rubinstein.  2009 Projections:  60/22/85/.275

4. Gary Sheffield – With three years since his last thirty home run season, I think it’s safe to say he’s not going to suddenly explode back on the scene.  Could the Yanks have parted ways with an aging vet at the right time?  Appears so.  2009 Projections:  50/15/60/.255/7

5. Rocco Baldelli – Take that, mitochondria!  2009 Projections:  50/12/50/.280/3

Our boy Timmy took a Lincecumbacker to the knee. Not good if you’ve been riding his amazing 12-3 record (for the Giants?!?!), sub 3.00 ERA, and 10 K/9 IP.  He hobbled out of the game.  We’ll have to see if he’s as bad off as our other favorite Timmy but start scouting pitchers just in case.

In other injury news, there is the Flyin’ Hawaiian and The Overrated Mulatto. Shane Victorino came out of yesterday’s game with stiffness in his back, while Jeter left the game with a foot injury after fouling a ball off it earlier in the game. Both players are listed as day to day, which is sports journalist code for “I have no idea.” I wish I could get away with this in my every day life. Are you going to pickup dinner? Day to day. What’s that sore on your lip? Day to day. Why are you peeing on my leg? Day to day. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carl Crawford – It’s official. He’s done. Off to have surgery. This is probably a blessing for your team in some leagues. Crawford wasn’t having the best year, yet you had to start him because he was Crawford. Buh-bye.

Evan Longoria – I’d expect him to miss the rest of the season too, but the Rays are saying he should be back by September 1st.

David Ortiz – 2 HRs in the 1st inning with 6 RBIs. It’s the kind of inning that makes owners drool. Ortiz is now on pace for 430 HRs and 1.7 million RBIs for the rest of the year. He might fall short. Let’s not forget he did hit the HRs against Scott Feldman. If you’re not familiar with the name, that means you’re not related to Scott Feldman. Congratulations. Let’s not forget, Part II: The Return of More Deflating News From Grey, Ortiz was just complaining of a sore wrist.

Emilio Bonifacio – Since going 8-for-18, he’s gone 0-for-20. If he keeps going from feast to famine like this, the Nats might have to make Bonifacio watch the very special episode of The Facts of Life when Blair had an eating disorder.

Randy Johnson – 7 starts, 6 wins, 1.58 ERA and a .85 WHIP. Obviously, he’s ownable in every league. Even two team leagues where the other guy’s already quit.

Jermaine Dye – Hit his 28th HR yesterday. I picked him up off waivers in my 15 team ‘pert league back in April, but I’ve since traded him and Kouzmanoff to the ghost of George Carlin, which I kinda regret.

Lance Berkman – HR yesterday after hitting only two since July 1st. He was due for a cold spell. Too bad he’s not injury prone like Chipper so you could’ve just replaced him for a month or two.

Felipe Lopez – Landed in perhaps the only place where he could actually have value, St. Louis. If LaRussa can turn Aaron Miles, Adam Kennedy and Cesar Izturis into serviceable nine hitters, he might make Lopez into a decent number 2. And a “decent number two” is exactly what Lopez is.

Johan Santana – 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks. Has only struckout ten or more batters in a game twice this year. Cust kayin’.

Pedro Feliciano – Won the bullpen paper, rock scissors and got the save.

Mike Cameron/Jody Gerut – Two Carlos Lee replacements, two home runs yesterday.

Austin Kearns – 2-for-4 with a steal. My third Carlos replacement.

Juan Rivera – HR yesterday. I don’t currently have him on a team, but he might be heating up again after hitting well in July. (He was not good in August thus far.)

Brad Ziegler – Save yesterday. Officially the A’s closer and he’s pitched 38 straight scoreless innings.

Gio Gonzalez – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks. After watching him pitch well last week (minus the first inning), I held onto him and was rewarded tonight with Savviest Fantasy Baseball Owner for August 12th. First, I wanna thank God. Without him, none of this would be possible. Second, I wanna thank Yahoo for having Gio Gonzalez in your database. We had some touch and go moments this season, but you came through when I needed you. Third, I wanna thank Aaron Cook for shitting the bed a couple of starts in a row and forcing me to pick a pitcher off waivers.

Gary Sheffield – 2 HRs yesterday. He obviously hit these homers because he was pissed off he was being placed on waivers. Can’t they hire someone to come into the locker room to insult Sheff? “Yo mama is so fat, she can only fit into a throwback Cecil Fielder jersey.” Maybe they can get Wilmer Valderrama.

Mark Reynolds/Krispie Young/Adam Dunn – .246/.235/.235/ respectively. Stinker to Whatevers to Fat Chance.

And now for the actual opening day of the baseball season. The first full slate of games is almost in the books (minus the rainouts.) What I saw:

Verlander was dealing. He easily could’ve gotten the win, if not for…

Alex Gordon. After ranking him extremely high in my top 100, I’ll be watching closely all year.

When Miguel Cabrera hit his homer, he sprinted down the first base line hoping to get a double, which is what he would have had in South Florida. He’s accustomed to the Dolphin Stadium. He’s in for a huge season. And that’s not a waistline crack.

If Gary Sheffield stays healthy, he’s in for a terrific season batting in that lineup. His hands are still quick and he takes walks.

Tigers Announcers, Rod Allen and Mario Impemba, suck.

Nationals Announcers, Don Sutton and Bob Carpenter, are worse. They inexplicably described Pedro Feliz as one of the most underrated players in the league.

Surprisingly, Don’s kid, Darin Sutton, is one of the best announcers.

Nick Markakis has a stolen base. Here comes 30/20. Outside of The Greek God of Roto, the Orioles will be painful to watch this year and I would stay away from all Orioles starters and relievers. Sherrill won’t even be worth it.

Victor Martinez was pulled from the game with a hamstring injury. Am I worried? No, because I didn’t draft V-Mart in any league. Should you be worried if you did draft him? Yup. Someone you might want to think about…

Chris Snyder was batting fifth. He’s looking like a great pickup if he lasts in that spot.

Torre put Posada Russell Martin in the sixth hole. Guess it’s a force of habit for him to bat a catcher sixth. This could be an issue for Martin’s value.

Mark Reynolds might strikeout 200 times this year.

No reason to think Jim Thome can’t hit 35 home runs if he stays healthy.

My better logic says it’s only one day, my gut is telling me Franklin Gutierrez is in for a great year. I already said this, “…Franklin Gutiérrez is 25 and about to get the right field job on one of the best offensive AL teams. Gutiérrez could go 70/20/80/.270/20 in the ninth hole.” Between Gutierrez and Lastings Milledge, I like Gutierrez better.

Johan Santana… Oh, man.

Eric Gagne… Oh, crap.

Kerry Wood… You knew that was coming. Carlos Marmol will be closing by May and end the season with more saves than Wood.

Carlos Zambrano, I’m not too concerned he was pulled because of the forearm cramp. Big Z could find a way to throw 120 pitches with a broken hand.

On one team, I had Pujols and Wainwright. Not thrilled I lost the home run, but I am thrilled there was a home run to lose. You should be too. Though I’m having a hard time seeing the positive in losing the Wainwright start.

Ian Snell will find a way to lose more games than he wins, but he’ll keep the games close. Always gives up a home run at some point.

I’m hoping Cox moves Matt Diaz up and Mark Kotsay down in the order against righties.

Michael Young hit a home run. That projects to 162 on the season. I’d say he falls short by about 150.

Yunel Escobar looked good. Quick wrists, knocking the ball to the opposite field.

Michael Bourn stole 2 bases. Granted, Ronnie Paulino could steal against Bard, but I told you to avoid drafting steals early and grab Bourn late. He might steal 50 this season.

I hate Tom Gordon.