Fantasy Baseball Advice

…Or How I Learned to Stop Loving Pronk as He Bombed. As The Three Stooges may have said, we’re here for the yucks. These draft busts are compliments of Rudy Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. I’m simply his servant relaying you some information, but if you ask me to carry the piss bucket, it’s a no-go.  For these 20 draft busts, I took Expected Point Shares and Actual Point Shares and found the schmohawk hitters with the biggest difference. It ain’t rocket science, ya’ll. It’s fantasy baseball. Now some of the busts were so, um, busty that they didn’t even show up on Rudy Gamble’s Point Shares because he dropped all of the schmohawks that didn’t have over 377 at-bats. So will this draft bust list be without Hafner and Victor Martinez? Nope, I got the master Point Shares list — oh, snap! — and added in some schmohawks. In each entry you’ll find the Average Draft Position (ADP) from Mock Draft Central and the Forget the Plunger, Call the Plumber (FPCP) metric, which I made up to illustrate how badly these fantasy baseball hitters messed up your team. Anyway, here’s the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, the hitters:

20. Rafael Furcal - His one saving grace was his relative quick exit. One real solid month and goodbye. Other than clogging up your DL spot for a bit, his bust is Linda Hamilton-like. ADP, 78 — FPCP, .4

19. Jorge Posada - He’s a catcher that people were warning you against drafting, so you should’ve known better. ADP, 91 — FPCP, 1.8

18. Andruw Jones - Again, doesn’t hurt as much as some because you should’ve known not to draft him. ADP, 100 — FPCP, 2.9

17. Khalil Greene - Khalil Greene is the lowest drafted guy on this list, but his ugliness made it necessary. ADP, 191 — FPCP, 3.3

16. Eric Byrnes - Every ‘pert, including me, warned you in the preseason of an impending bust for Byrnes, so his bust feels a bit easier to swallow — like it’s lactating. Though he was still a hustling piece of crap while he was playing. ADP, 52 — FPCP, 4.1

15. Gary Sheffield - Bad temper + no roids = Old cranky dude who can’t stay healthy or hit with power. ADP, 86 — FPCP, 4.2

14. Jimmy Rollins - I tried to warn people against hoping for a repeat MVP campaign, but even I didn’t envision him hitting only 11 home runs. Micah Owings could’ve hit 11 home runs in Citizen’s Bank. ADP, 6 — FPCP, 5.7

13. Prince Fielder - He ended earning the most Point Shares on this list. He still fell way short of predicted value. He would’ve been worth drafting 40th not 11th. ADP, 11 — FPCP, 6.2

12. Hideki Matsui - Hideki loves porn and this year he left his owners feeling like jerk offs. ADP, 88 — FPCP, 7.0

11. Paul Konerko - Drafted on average 84th as he sprinkled one week of value between six months of weak. ADP, 84 — FPCP, 8.7

10. Carlos Guillen - I ain’t down with Guillen because of what he offers even in a good year. This year’s blowout was not a good year. ADP, 49 — FPCP, 10.2

9. Jeff Francoeur - I drafted Frenchy right in front of Josh Hamilton in one league. Now Frenchy will be the one player I will never draft again. Every year one player gets this distinction and this year Francoeur earns the badge of dishonor. ADP, 101 — FPCP, 11.4

8. Robinson Cano - This one hurts more than some because I really believed that Cano would turn it around in the 2nd half. *sniffles* It still hurts. ADP, 64 — FPCP, 13.1

7. Ryan Zimmerman - And the pain from Cano has worn off already. It actually feels good to see this schmohawk here. Schadenfreude! ADP, 89 — FPCP, 15.9

6. Chone Figgins - 34 steals is what you wanted. 72/1/22/.276 is not. ADP, 53 — FPCP, 16.0

5. Victor Martinez - With an average draft position of 29, anyone that drafted Victor Martinez probably felt like they were the catcher for the Riker’s Island softball team.  ADP, 29 — FPCP, 17.3

4. Travis Hafner - The pride of North Dakota remains Roger Maris and Angie Dickinson. You wanted a bit more from Pronk than 5 home runs and a .197 average. The best thing Hafner did all year was go on the DL the better part of the season.  If only Hafner would’ve dropped his big melon head on V-Mart in spring training, you could’ve avoided drafting either of them. ADP, 44 — FPCP, 17.7

3. David Ortiz - In 2008, Big Papi was like a big teddy bear of suck. He was drafted on average 17th and he gave you the value of a player drafted 227th. To quote the late great Curly Howard, “Yuck, yuck, yuck.” ADP, 17 — FPCP, 18.9

2. Troy Tulowitzki - I had a Polish friend growing up whose father would shovel snow in socks and flip-flops. Was it because he was impervious to cold or he didn’t own boots? I have no idea. It might have been the booze. Either way, I like to think it was because the Poles are hard-working and he was proving a point to his lazy American neighbors. With this season, Tulo disgraced himself and all of the Poles. ADP, 45 — FPCP 19.3

1. Carl Crawford - In May in one league, I traded Crawford for Braun. Phew. Crawford needs a good punch in the mouth for all of the fantasy teams he ruined this year. Somebody give Brett Myers a call. ADP, 15 — FPCP, 19.7

Tommy John Surgery, “Hey, has anyone seen Billy Wagner’s arm?” All Pitcher Arms ignore Tommy John Surgery as they continue to read Men’s Fitness Magazine. Tommy John Surgery, “Well, it’s important he gets this message. His arm’s not going to get better without me.” Other Pitcher Arms whistle. Tommy John Surgery, “I will not be ignored!” Then Tommy John Surgery boiled Billy Wagner’s Arm’s Rabbit and followed his kid to a local carnival. Now it looks like Billy Wagner’s career is in danger. Ayala should continue to get the bulk of the saves, but always keep this in mind, Ayala is just not that good. Even in keeper leagues, drop Wagner. He’s no good to you anymore, Tommy John Surgery came calling. Next year, the Mets will probably look to make Francisco Rodriguez the highest paid closer in baseball. Hey, I wonder if Tommy John Surgery and K-Rod were working together? Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

B.J. Upton - Out until the weekend with a strained quad. A B.J. quad strain is blue balls, no?

Emmanuel Burriss - For those who just lost Upton. Burriss got a steal yesterday. He might get 3+ steals this week. In all of my H2H leagues, I’m currently starting him. He goes from the Diamondbacks to the Padres later in the week. I could steal against the Padres; I’m not fast. (UPDATE: He was injured yesterday and is no longer a replacement option for Upton.)

Jack Wilson - Might be out for the season with a hairline fracture in his right index finger. Before you throw in the towel because you’ve lost Jack Wilson, take comfort in knowing you don’t own him on any team.

Tim Lincecum - 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K and 126 pitches. I hope his innings/pitches this year don’t catch up to him next year. I do, because I think Lincecum could be special. With that said, why can’t these schmohawks limit him to 100 pitches when he’s up six runs? How much evidence do you need that high pitch counts lead to injuries? If you were making a run for the pennant, would you let him throw 180 pitches? Inconceivable!

Gary Sheffield - 2 HRs. Afterward Sheff said, “Sheff tried to hit the white off the baseball.”

Jon Lester - 7.2 IP, 9 Ks, 0 ER. Looks like Lester didn’t ask Make-A-Wish for just a no-hitter, but a whole season of productivity.

Jeremy Guthrie - Not pitching tomorrow because he has the “flu.” That’s short for he has a crapload of innings on his arm. If you’re still waiting around for him in leagues, I wouldn’t anymore.

Kevin Gregg - Will return on Tuesday and Fredi Gonzalez said he’ll continue to use Matt Lindstrom as the closer. Why? Because Gonzalez is in a H2H matchup and he owns Lindstrom, obviously.

Dave Bush - 8 IP, 2 ER. It’s only fitting that Bush comes right before Wood.

Brandon Wood - 2 HRs. I told you to pickup Brandon Wood on Friday, since then he has three HRs.

Yusmeiro Petit - 2 2/3 innings and 5 ER. And we might see Jobacum again after all. (Yes, Jobacum just came after Bush and Wood. And that’s how you make a triple-decker double entendre sandwich.)

Matt Antonelli - 1-for-21 since being called up. Don’t worry, Padres. You still have the future promise of Khalil Greene.

Albert Pujols - Said he’s considering Tommy John surgery in the offseason. Wasn’t Wagner enough for you, you monster?!

Kila Ka’aihue will need a nickname if he plans on being as good as he looked in the minors this year. How about Misplaced Apostrophe? Nope. Ka’aihue hits home runs and, get this, doesn’t strikeout. Weird! Check this out, Tootsie Roll. He had 67 strikeouts and 104 walks. Sign me up! Wait, you haven’t even heard the exciting part yet. He hit the fourth most HRs in the minor leagues in 2008 with 37, which were hit between Double-A and Triple-A. How about the nickname, Keanu? It means Cool Breeze Over the Mountains in Hawaiian. Nope. Ka’aihue has to battle for playing time on the Royals, but if he gets some, I’d take a flier in AL-Only leagues and monitor closely in keeper leagues and mixed leagues. How about The Big Island? Hmm, that’s not bad. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Josh Fields - With Crede suffering from back pain (Crede should totally go see my acupuncturist. She speaks no English and she tries to charge me double every time I go, but still she’s like Anne Sullivan with needles.), Guillen turns to Uribe, a guy that somehow has had a major league career. C’mon, Josh Fields Forever…

Josh Anderson - Who’s this effin’ schmohawk Grey’s touting this week? Easy there, guy. I’ll slice you. Josh Anderson has started every game in the last week and he has a home run and three steals. If you’re hurting for steals, you can do worse.

Mike Lowell - If he was dropped in your league, he’d due back today.

Dexter Fowler - Worth a NL-Only flier in keeper leagues. He might be someone to look at late in the season if/when the Rox get Elimidated by the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. He might not have a spot next year, but I think the Rox are going to do all they can to move on from Taveras.

Brandon Wood - Starting just about every game. When the Angels clinch, which is academic at this point, Wood should see even more time as Scioscia gives his regulars some rest.

Travis Snider - I mentioned picking up Travis Snider earlier today. And that’s me linking to me!

James Loney - My first baseman had a second name, it’s L-O-N-E-Y. He’s a .370 September hitter.

Casey Kotchman - Since we’re talking about 1st basemen that don’t have a cholesterol problem. Kotchman bats near .320 in September.

Rafael Furcal - At middle infield, you can afford to gamble on a DL slot.

Mike Hessman - With the Tigers playing for nothing and Guillen hurting, Hessman could see time at 3rd base. He had 32 home runs in Triple-A this year and he was awesome in Head of the Class.

SELL

Carlos Zambrano - He’s inflammed! Inflammed, I tell ya!

Mike Lamb -Well, he got the “out like a Lamb” part right.

Carlos Gomez - Bad week for Carloses (Carli?). In some leagues, where I’m desperate for steals, I’m holding him, but the Twins have been going out of their way to find other options. You probably should too.

Brandon Morrow - Let’s be realistic, he hasn’t been that good in the minors while stretching myself out, he pitches for the Mariners (F-Her is 9-9) and he won’t last much longer than six innings in any start. If you’re in a pinch, I could see taking a flier. Caveat emptor, for those in Latin America.

Gary Sheffield - He’d show you, but he’s too old; too banged up and too fuckin’ blind– I mean… See the first two.

Evan Longoria - I had my doubts about Longoria returning, and now he’s yet to pickup a bat, 4 days after he was supposedly returning. There’s. Three. Weeks. Left.

Carlos Guillen - This is the time of year that regulars give way to rooks, especially on clubs that are out of it. This goes double for guys who are battling injury. En garde, Injury!

Carlos Quentin - Actually, it’s an awful week for Carloses. He has a fractured wrist. Drop him in all leagues, except keepers.

Our boy Timmy took a Lincecumbacker to the knee. Not good if you’ve been riding his amazing 12-3 record (for the Giants?!?!), sub 3.00 ERA, and 10 K/9 IP.  He hobbled out of the game.  We’ll have to see if he’s as bad off as our other favorite Timmy but start scouting pitchers just in case.

In other injury news, there is the Flyin’ Hawaiian and The Overrated Mulatto. Shane Victorino came out of yesterday’s game with stiffness in his back, while Jeter left the game with a foot injury after fouling a ball off it earlier in the game. Both players are listed as day to day, which is sports journalist code for “I have no idea.” I wish I could get away with this in my every day life. Are you going to pickup dinner? Day to day. What’s that sore on your lip? Day to day. Why are you peeing on my leg? Day to day. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carl Crawford - It’s official. He’s done. Off to have surgery. This is probably a blessing for your team in some leagues. Crawford wasn’t having the best year, yet you had to start him because he was Crawford. Buh-bye.

Evan Longoria - I’d expect him to miss the rest of the season too, but the Rays are saying he should be back by September 1st.

David Ortiz - 2 HRs in the 1st inning with 6 RBIs. It’s the kind of inning that makes owners drool. Ortiz is now on pace for 430 HRs and 1.7 million RBIs for the rest of the year. He might fall short. Let’s not forget he did hit the HRs against Scott Feldman. If you’re not familiar with the name, that means you’re not related to Scott Feldman. Congratulations. Let’s not forget, Part II: The Return of More Deflating News From Grey, Ortiz was just complaining of a sore wrist.

Emilio Bonifacio - Since going 8-for-18, he’s gone 0-for-20. If he keeps going from feast to famine like this, the Nats might have to make Bonifacio watch the very special episode of The Facts of Life when Blair had an eating disorder.

Randy Johnson - 7 starts, 6 wins, 1.58 ERA and a .85 WHIP. Obviously, he’s ownable in every league. Even two team leagues where the other guy’s already quit.

Jermaine Dye - Hit his 28th HR yesterday. I picked him up off waivers in my 15 team ‘pert league back in April, but I’ve since traded him and Kouzmanoff to the ghost of George Carlin, which I kinda regret.

Lance Berkman - HR yesterday after hitting only two since July 1st. He was due for a cold spell. Too bad he’s not injury prone like Chipper so you could’ve just replaced him for a month or two.

Felipe Lopez - Landed in perhaps the only place where he could actually have value, St. Louis. If LaRussa can turn Aaron Miles, Adam Kennedy and Cesar Izturis into serviceable nine hitters, he might make Lopez into a decent number 2. And a “decent number two” is exactly what Lopez is.

Johan Santana - 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks. Has only struckout ten or more batters in a game twice this year. Cust kayin’.

Pedro Feliciano - Won the bullpen paper, rock scissors and got the save.

Mike Cameron/Jody Gerut - Two Carlos Lee replacements, two home runs yesterday.

Austin Kearns - 2-for-4 with a steal. My third Carlos replacement.

Juan Rivera - HR yesterday. I don’t currently have him on a team, but he might be heating up again after hitting well in July. (He was not good in August thus far.)

Brad Ziegler - Save yesterday. Officially the A’s closer and he’s pitched 38 straight scoreless innings.

Gio Gonzalez - 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks. After watching him pitch well last week (minus the first inning), I held onto him and was rewarded tonight with Savviest Fantasy Baseball Owner for August 12th. First, I wanna thank God. Without him, none of this would be possible. Second, I wanna thank Yahoo for having Gio Gonzalez in your database. We had some touch and go moments this season, but you came through when I needed you. Third, I wanna thank Aaron Cook for shitting the bed a couple of starts in a row and forcing me to pick a pitcher off waivers.

Gary Sheffield - 2 HRs yesterday. He obviously hit these homers because he was pissed off he was being placed on waivers. Can’t they hire someone to come into the locker room to insult Sheff? “Yo mama is so fat, she can only fit into a throwback Cecil Fielder jersey.” Maybe they can get Wilmer Valderrama.

Mark Reynolds/Krispie Young/Adam Dunn - .246/.235/.235/ respectively. Stinker to Whatevers to Fat Chance.

I don’t like Brandon Webb. Why, Grey? Why the hard feelings? Did he have sex with your sister and then make you smell his fingers? No, you sick bastard. In 2004, I owned Brandon Webb in a league that counted Ks minus BBs and Webb had 119 walks that year, which is about twice his usual amount. I left that season vowing never to draft him again. So what did he do since my vow? He went on to become one of the top pitchers in the game. Did he become great as a personal vow of vengeance against me? Probably. Now just because Brandon Webb wants to be petty doesn’t mean I have to be, too. So while he has sucked dog balls over the last month, am I celebrating his struggles during Mojito Night at Case de Grey? No, it’s not necessary. A 6.05 ERA in June is bad. He knows. I don’t need to point out the obvious. Only 14 strikeouts in 22 IP is dreadful. In his last two games his ERA is 9.58. That’s 11 ER in 10.1 IP. Ugh and ugly. So this is great news for me because I get to see Webb struggle, but even better news for all of you that don’t own him. Not simply for the schadenfreude glee you get from seeing your friends miserable. (But that helps!) No, his recent struggles opens up a buying opportunity. Last year his Pre-All Star break ERA was 3.37; Post-All Star was 2.56.  His three year average against is .256 before the break and .239 after. I’m not a huge fan of trading for pitchers, especially not top ones, but while Webb struggles, there might be a chance to get him cheaper than usual. So if you need to get a pitcher, Webb should get better. Anyway, here’s some other players to buy and sell in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Chris Davis - Mentioned this morning. How’s that for timeliness?

Fred Lewis - On one hand, he has a name that sounds like he should be an 80s sitcom character, on the other he has 6 HRs and 13 steals. Consider him a weak man’s 30/30. Say 10/30?

Steven Pearce - Starting to hit everything he sees out of the park. Pirates prospect should get a look soon once the Pirates realize they should be playing for next year. (Yes, they should’ve been playing for next year in March. That’s cute. Did you think up that one on your own?)

Vladimir Guerrero - He already made one Buy list. Guess what? I’m still buying. Not because I think he’ going to go 40/40 after the break, but I do think he will be better than he has been and his price tag is extremely low right now.

Jim Thome - I noticed he was on waivers in one of my ten team leagues. Hmm… Once interleague is over, I’m picking him up. As a utility guy, he’s that bad? (That was rhetorical!)

Wandy Rodriguez - Well you came and you gave without taking, but I sent you away, oh Wandy… Where else do you go to get your fantasy baseball and Barry Manilow fill in one place? (That’s not rhetorical.)

Ryan Church - He should be back this weekend from his concussion. (On a side note, I was hit by a truck in college, knocking me into a coma. Long story short, I was back within the week getting drunk on Lansdowne. The truck was bigger than Marlon Anderson. Seriously, Willie might have made a misstep chucking Church back in there the next day, but now Church’s moving close to pulling a Kotchman.)

Gary Sheffield - Sheffield hates you. He just does. There’s no rhyme or reason. He especially hates those who think he can’t play anymore. To prove your stupid face wrong, he will continue to hit and prove his worth. But Sheff has the distinction of being both a Buy and a Sell. See below why he’s a “Sell.” (Talk about hedging my bets!)

SELL

Gary Sheffield - He’s old and steroids are now banned. Nagging injuries become DL stints and “Sheff needs a day off.” It’s hard for me to hate on Sheff too much; Sheff talks about himself in third person. Grey likes that, but Grey also is not picking Sheff up in any league.

Carlos Pena - If Pena was dropped in any league while he was injured, he’s worth grabbing to see if he can get hot. But, like Chief Jay Strongbow, I have my reservations. Then again, I used to think George Michael was straight, so I’ve been wrong in the past. Wait, this sounds like a Buy. Yeah, it is sorta (Grey’s hedging again!), but I also think Pena will be a season long bust and if Pena gets hot I think he should be sold immediately before he gives you a .220 average.

Francisco Liriano - He might be a Buy again next week, but for now, I’m dropping him. He’s looked bad in his last two minor league starts.

Kurt Suzuki - He had two home runs in the last two weeks and now he’s a hot add. An arm wrestling match between Suzuki vs. Kendall would last for three hours with one of them quitting because of a broken nail.

Eric Stults - I loved him as Rocky Dennis. Is he some kind of wonderful? Eh.

J.D. Drew - He will break your heart, just ask Philly.

Milton Bradley - He hates you more than Sheff. Larry King seems to think Milton Bradley should add “Fun For All Ages” at the end of his name. I think Milton Bradley would Chacon the air from your lungs if he heard you say that.