Fantasy Baseball Advice

Closer Look

May 16, 2008 By: Grey Category: Buy Low, Sell High 61 Comments →

It’s been a while since I went through all the major league closers and their setup men and where they should be ranked. So I figured I’d break it down for you because knowing all the closers and all of their setup man could be helpful for all of you. A million dollars and a naked Christina Ricci chained to your furnace could also be helpful, but I don’t have a furnace. Anyway, all the major league closers and their setup men seems like something all fantasy baseball players could use, so here it is. BTW, do you see how giving I am? I’m like Jolie-giving. Seriously, I should be wearing a habit and carrying a Malaysian orphan in a baby sling while talking on my solar-powered cellphone.

NO-BRAINERS

This tier is filled with a bunch of no-brainers (Papelbon — a no-brainer! Get it? Oofa!). These closers could get you the most in any trade. I would not hesitate to trade away any of these guys for the right price. In the end, closers are here to get you saves. You could end up with more saves from Rauch than Joe Nathan. When stacked with closers, unstack and trade.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Justin Speier, Scot Shields)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain)
5. Billy Wagner, NYM (Aaron Heilman)
6. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon)
7. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)

BRAINERS

These closers seem like they have a lot more risk than they actually do. It takes a real brainer to see how potentially valuable some of these brainers are. If you trade a no-brainer for a brainer and another player, you’re likely coming out on top.

8. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez, Leo Nunez)
9. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
10. Jon Rauch, WAS (Luis Ayala)
11. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel)
12. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell, Cla Meredith)
14. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
15. Brian Fuentes, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
16. J.J. Putz, SEA (Brandon Marrow, Sean Green)
17. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)
18. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
19. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto)
20. Kerry Wood, CHC (Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol)
21. George Sherrill, BAL (Bunch of Schmohawks)

BRAIN FREEZE

At some point soon, you’re going to squeeze your temples and grimace like you just ate a pint of Dreyer’s. All of these guys should be traded after they go on a string of few saved games, assuming they go on a string of a few saved games.

22. Huston Street, OAK (Keith Foulke, Joey Devine)
23. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Al Reyes)
24. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
25. Manny Acosta, Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer, et al, ATL (John Smoltz)
26. Rafael Betancourt/Masa Kobayashi, CLE (Joe Borowski)
27. Todd Jones, DET (Clay Rapada, Aquilino Lopez, Fernando Rodney)
28. Eric Gagne, MIL (Salomon Torres, G. Mota)
29. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
30. Ryan Franklin/Russ Springer, STL (Jason Isringhausen)

Curtis Blows

May 13, 2008 By: Grey Category: May's Daily Notes 79 Comments →

Curtis Granderson looks like the same hitter he was last year. Just without the luck. He had a .391 BABIP last season. Whoa, Grey, those numbers scare me. Grab your blankie, and listen. I’m trying to educate you. Razzball Point Shares ranked Granderson 73rd overall. Baseball Prospectus put Granderson’s 2008 projections at 88/21/80/.267/15. They were admittedly being generous. They did not rank him in the top ten for outfielders. Adam Dunn is ranked tenth. Granderson’s speed and power will remain, but those home runs and steals may come at a price. If you could trade him for Vladimir Guerrero or even Corey Hart, I would do it. I don’t think you can get, say, Johan Santana. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Eric Gagne – Backne into the closer’s role. How far has he fallen? When he closed it out, Shouse was warming up in the pen just in case. I’m positive Gagne’ll blow another save by this time next week. If you have room, hold onto Torres or Mota.

Edinson Volquez – He fell into some trouble in the fifth and looked like he was getting frustrated even when he was getting some good calls by the ump. *I’m going to write this next part before the Reds go to bat in the fifth with Volquez due up third* Volquez is removed for a pinch hitter and finishes the game with 95 pitches thrown. A great start again from Volquez, but his temperament when he started to walk people in the fifth should be watched. *Okay, I’m going back to real time.* OF COURSE, HE’S BATTING IN THE BOTTOM OF THE FIFTH. Hey, Dusty, Mark Prior called, he wants his arm back. Luis Gonzalez just singled to leadoff the sixth. Why is Edinson starting an inning when he’s at 95 pitches and his top of the fifth was a very stressful inning? I hate Dusty. Well, it ended up okay, although Jacobs hit a long fly ball to the warning track to end the inning.

Jeff Keppinger – The knee bone is connected to the… Oops. Drop him in all leagues. People probably aren’t even reading this, unless it affects them, so I’m talking to the former Keppinger owners. I feel your pain, man! *manly pat on your shoulder* He was having a very solid MI season for NL-Only. I know, I had him. This injury kinda killed me. Who I’m looking at for replacing him: Vizquel, Cedeno, Hairston, Amezaga, Izturis and Bruntlett respectively. Not a noisemaker in the group.

Khalil Greene – Hit another home run. I have this theory that all mulatto children are attractive, so I’m going to assume Khalil doesn’t have any coffee in his cream. Just not sure where the name Khalil comes from.

Ryan Garko - The entire Tribe team is too talented to struggle offensively forever.

Matt Joyce – Took Greinke deep. He could be some cheap power.

Ronny Paulino – In NL-Only leagues, he’s getting a bulk of the starts because Doumit is headed to the DL.

Kevin Slowey – I’ve already mentioned how I’m not a huge fan of AL pitchers, but Slowey is one I like.

Jo-Jo Reyes – When Hill went down, I said Jo-Jo was a good possible replacement. He pitched better than his four earned runs. Howard hit him hard, but not much else. Also, no walks.

Jeremy Guthrie – Another starter I pegged to look at to replace Hill. He beat the Sox with solid Ks.

John Maine – Ya’ll know how I feel about Maine. I did rank him fifteenth overall for starting pitchers.

Zach Greinke – Labored a bit in this start, but made the big pitches when he had to. BTW, this was against the Tigers, the team that was pegged coming into the season as the ’27 Yankees. Even though sportswriters say that shizz every year in March about at least three teams.

Edwin Jackson – Since we have on our throwback jerseys, the Yankees look like the ’86 Angels minus the pitching. I can’t imagine Girardi is thrilled with this group. Jackson looked good again. He was a great prospect and he’s still very young (24). I think you absolutely have to give him a shot at this point. He should’ve got the win if it wasn’t for Percival, who surprisingly wasn’t on the ’86 Angels. It just feels like it.

Jered Weaver – The one-hitter left Ozzie Guillen with no one to kiss.

Eddie Guardado – Those saves vultures out there might want to look here, especially after the poundings CJ Wilson took the last two times out. If he gets roughed up like that a couple more times, Ron Washington may open up the “Conventional Baseball Managing for Dummies” book and pitch a righty in the ninth.

Stephen Drew – Since my trade of Shawn Hill for Stephen Drew was turned down faster than Eckstein trying to buy beer, Drew’s gone 6/2/7/.333.

Cliff Lee Cures Blindness

May 12, 2008 By: Grey Category: May's Daily Notes 38 Comments →

Cliff Lee threw nine innings of shutout ball to lower his ERA to 0.67. Seriously, he’s not Bob Gibson. He wasn’t even the best pitcher in his game last night. Shaun Marcum got him there. If someone’s buying into Lee’s early season performance, can you command a high offensive guy in a trade? You can try. His brother from another mother, Carlos Lee? Maybe. Markakis? Rios? Tex? Possibilities. This is why you have to send out feelers. Cliff Lee will be untradeable at the first sign of trouble. He doesn’t have a track record to instill much confidence. If you can’t get someone to trade Lee to right now, you have to hope he has a career year and doesn’t regress to his career norms. His peripherals all look solid, but history tells us he’s not what he’s been thus far. I would not trade for Cliff Lee (unless the owner is worried the correction is coming and wants to undersell him). Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Erik Bedard – Gave up 6 ER in 2 IP. Blowing a 5 run cushion after the top half of the 1st inning. In fairness, Texas has a really deep lineup: Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Bradley…. Um… Toby Harrah, a guy named Murphy, a Boggs that only plays like he drank 70 beers and Chuck Norris.

Eric Gagne – He pronounced himself fit to close. Other fifteen NL teams agree with him.

Alexis Rios – With Wells’s injury, he’s now batting third. But in one game yesterday, Wilkerson led off. Wilkerson was cut by a team that is starting Jose Vidro at DH.

Adam Wainwright – Co-Chief Officer of Razzball saw a blip on the radar.

Clay Buchholz – The argument over who’s better — Buchholz or Philip Hughes — rages on. Phil Hughes might take the lead soon buoyed by a stint on the DL for a fractured ERA.

John Van Benschoten – Rudy picked him up for his Razzball team. How could he not take a flier on a Pittsburgh starter with Bench in his last name? His 4 IP with 6 ER and 11 base runners were all he could’ve hoped for. Can’t wait for San Francisco to bring up their 1B prospect Bobby Easyout.

Adam Dunn – He has to be the worst RBI guy ever for a 40 HR player. Best case scenario with men in scoring position – sac fly. 5 for 29 with men in scoring position — 11Ks. Last 3 years (2005-2007), he’s hitting .236 with runners in scoring position. Someone tell Dusty that Dunn should be hitting 1st or 2nd. He’s great for OBP. Keep him out of the middle of the lineup.

Barry Zito – He got a victory against the Astros last night. A moral victory. Get the man some orange slices.

Adam LaRoche – He slumped in April like he does every year. 4 HR in last 9 games. He’s got to be available in some leagues.

Livan Hernandez – He’s 6-1. Johan Santana is 4-2. Silva and Lohse continue to get rocked. The Twins are geniuses! (It’s just a matter of time before Nick Punto explodes like Pat Neshek’s elbow.)

Dioner Navarro – Okay, I promised not to say his name again, but I keep getting questions about Johjima and Pudge. Those schmohawks should not be on a team, except in the deepest of leagues. DNV (<—-forced nickname) went three-for-three with 2 RBIs. He’s now batting .363 over 72 at-bats. Last year’s post-All-Star break numbers were 30/8/31/.285/2 in 179 at-bats. He’s only 24.

Wladimir Balentien – Mentioned two weeks ago how Rudy grabbed Wlady while I grabbed Lind, just to spread the Razzball love even though I liked Balentien more. Yeah, I should’ve just grabbed Wlad the Impaler.

Jair Jurrjens – With two outs, Freddy Sanchez got a double that scored three. It was a clutch hit, but Jurrjens looked just fine. I’m still buying.

Aaron Harang – He didn’t pitch that well, but won. See what I mean about wins. Yeah, he’s 70th and Webb’s 10th overall.

Rafael Furcal – Lands on the 15-day DL with a strained lower back. Hope Mia Hamm has a cute friend for him.

Fausto Carmona – Another guy I’m not sold on. His 18/35 K/BB is a disaster waiting to happen.

Mike Jacobs – He was supposed to be back in the lineup last Friday. Not according to me — according to the Marlins. Seriously, teams should be required to release accurate injury reports. I’m having trust issues!

Luis Castillo – Looks like he might be headed to the DL with a strained quad. Castillo has had strained quads for 6 years. That’s like putting Willie McGee on the DL for ugliness.

Josh Hamilton – He is the only player in the majors who has gotten better since he’s been off drugs.

Frenchy Not As Lame As French

May 09, 2008 By: Grey Category: Buy Low, Sell High 43 Comments →

I put “Should I trade Frenchy?” into Google’s French translator. The translator steered me towards Kayak.com. So naturally, I flew to France. Stayed at a lovely hostel in the Arrondissement 4 right in the heart of the fabled Latin Quarter. The joie de vivre from the mix of students was intoxicating (and so was the wine!). When I asked a garçon at the local café about Francoeur, I talked in my worst French accent, but no strange, sideways looks. Locals embraced me and my American flag t-shirt. One Frenchman, who I asked about Francoeur, took me by the arm and whispered in my ear, “The answer is right under your nose.” I replied, “The only thing under my nose is your smell.” “No,” he explained, “The answer is in your heart.” I laughed and said, “Thank you, Yoda-like Frenchmen. Maybe when your daughter shaves her pits, we’ll meet again.” Arriving back in the States, I realized he was correct, the answer was right under my nose. I can’t find one single reason to not think Francoeur will turn around his early season power outage. So why can’t he? His BABIP is fine; Ks actually aren’t bad at all. Is he being more selective? Not really. But whatever, he never was. Is he still hitting doubles? Yup. Ground balls up? Well, they are literally up, as in his fly balls are okay. A compilation of expert projections has him hitting at least 22 more home runs. I think he gets 25 more. Since he currently sits at 3, that makes him a Buy guy. Like Sam Cooke said, “Change gonna come, nephew.” Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:

BUY

Salomon Torres – My favorite to replace Gagne (BTW, put Gagne into French translator and it came back with, “Backne.” Weird!). Can he do the job? I’m not convinced but The Backne Situation™ could get worse before it gets better. If I were a betting man (and I am, just not on this particular situation), I’d say Backne gets 22 saves, Torres 12, Mota 3.

Dontrelle Willis – I liked him (very sorta, kinda, a little) coming into the season and soon he returns to the Tigers. There’s some value there. How much? Well, I’d drop a middle reliever for a flier on Willis, but not much more. I would not start him his first time out. Or second.

Ian Snell – I think his price has reached rock bottom by this point. I would definitely drop a marginal player on my team for him. I would also not start him the first time out. (And, yes, I do have a school girl crush on all NL starters.)

Juan Pierre – Okay, whose eyes just bugged out of their sockets? Yes, I’m telling you to buy Pierre. I think his value is way down and he’s still doing what you want from him. However, I would not give a lot.

Jermaine Dye – Someone dropped him in one of my ‘pert leagues last week. (I don’t understand it either.) So I picked him up and he’s hit three home runs in the last three days. Can Dye keep it up? Here, I’ll text you the answer: Y not?

Carlos Quentin – By this point, I don’t expect he’s available in any league, but even in shallow leagues he should be picked up.

Kevin Slowey – Yes, I like NL starters, but occasionally an AL-er sneaks through. Don’t drop anyone you’ll regret, but Slowey’s been a bit of a favorite of mine for a while. Last Triple-A season, he had a 107/18 K/BB ratio, that’s solid, ya’ll.

Ben Francisco – Has 15/15 upside, just needs the at-bats (like 500 of them), but he’s started off well, hitting seventh, second and fifth in the last three games respectively. He definitely will see at-bats against lefties, so in AL-Only leagues, he could be a platoon-mate for an outfielder.

Franklin Gutierrez – Honestly, I could put the entire Indians team, except Hafner, on the Buy list. They’re all underperforming.

Jason Giambi – He goes on streaks where he hits a few home runs and shows flashes of ‘roided Giambi.

Nick Swisher – I don’t think that highly of Swisher, but he’s not as bad as he’s been. Just keep expectations in line. Caveat emptor for those in Latin America. ¡Hola!

Ryan Howard – He will not hit .165 the rest of the season unless he gets traded to the Rockies and starts at shortstop and their Shortstop Injury Curse hits him.

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta will toil away/Until judgement day/You will be rewarded for the good things he did/Believe me every year/There is another one here/Don’t you see Iannetta used to be the new kid… (BTW, this reference was for maybe two readers. Don’t try and figure it out if you don’t get it. Just buy their new album next Tuesday. They’re much better than that crap movie, The Breakup, that they were featured in. Trust me.)

Dioner Navarro – He will never be spoken of again. Pick him up or not; it is after all your team.

Blake DeWittElias Sports Bureau, in conjunction with Jayson Stark, announced that the third base situation for the Dodgers is the first time in the history of baseball that a guy (DeWitt) is blocking another guy (LaRoche) and they both have a capital letter three letters into their last names. (Actually, that’s completely fabricated by me, but it sounds like something the ESB would say. Here’s some more things recently overheard at the Elias Sports Bureau, “That is the first time in thirty years that someone has drank Tang at lunch while using a stapler.” “The parking lot has 17 empty spots for the first time since 2006.” “That is the first time Gary has ever said, ‘Excuse me,’ after burping.”  Anyway, DeWitt’s hot. You can do worse in all leagues. *cough* Longoria *cough*

SELL

Justin VerlanderSee this morning’s post.

Tim Lincecum – Now, Papa Smurf, don’t comment later in the day that you traded Lincecum for Slowey, Giambi and box of Munchkin donuts. I like Munchkins as much as the next guy, but Lincecum is worth more than that. I’m only telling you to sell him because you probably could grab two top OFs with him. His BABIP actually tells us that he’s been unlucky, if you can believe that. So get what you need, but don’t sell him short. Stick to your guns with ‘cum! (That’s a line right out of “The Magnificent Semen,” a remake of the Japanese classic, “The Semen Samurai.”)

Chipper Jones – He’s having an unreal beginning to the season. But here’s what we know from past seasons, he’s still very injury-prone. If you can move him for Ryan Howard or Edwin Encarnacion and McClouth or… Well, you get the picture. When Chipper’s on the DL in a month, don’t forget you had an option to move him.

Rich Harden – Please trade him. I’m begging you. You have like a millisecond before the next injury comes.

Eric Hinske – These early season home runs are a nice story. (Actually, it’s not that nice… It’s not even really a story.) If you can drop Hinske for a worthwhile middle reliever, I would do it.

Mariano Rivera – I don’t think he starts throwing Livan Hernandez-type eephus pitches, but he’s just saves more or less. If someone in your league, thinks Ray’s Original Pizza is freakin’ awesome and tawks about their honeymoon to the Jersey Shore, then maybe you trade Mo to them.

T.R.O.Y., They Reminisce Over You

May 01, 2008 By: Grey Category: May's Daily Notes 37 Comments →

If I were an emoticon, I would be a sad face. Maybe Tulowitzki shouldn’t have been jogging in socks and flip-flops after all. The only way he wouldn’t get on track this year is if he were injured. What does Tulo do? Gets injured. Badly, as it turns out. Tulowitzki is out until the All-Star break and that’s being optimistic. As Seinfeld might say, “What is the deal with all of these quad injuries?” In one year leagues, if you have no room on your DL, I’d say drop him. There’s not much positive to be had from these. I picked up Bobby Crosby in one deep league and Barmes in another. Why do I suddenly feel like I want to roller skate down a spiral staircase while carrying eighty pounds of deer meat? Some guys I’d look at to replace Tulowitzki (of course it depends on the league and needs): Felipe Lopez, Erick Aybar, Keppinger, Ronny Cedeno… I just thought of something. How about someone “take out” (those real quotes would be air quotes if we were, ya know, speaking) Grudzielanek? Then we can get Callaspo in there. Oh my God, I’m hoping for Callaspo to replace Tulo. The loss of Tulowitzki has made me delirious. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Chad Cordero – I’ve been saying for three weeks now Rauch gets more saves than Cordero. Now I wouldn’t be surprised if Cordero doesn’t get one more save this year. I’d drop him too, if you have no room.

Phil Hughes – Out until July, you probably don’t have him anyway, except in AL-Only leagues.

BJ Upton – Injury bug’s sure going around. He hurt himself on a swing. He says he’ll be all right. I say expect him to miss ten days, not go on your DL and be a nuisance.

Zach Greinke – Okay, onto something positive. He K’d nine Rangers. I think Carlos Silva could K seven Rangers, so it is what it is. But Greinke looks phenomenal this year. He’s always been a control pitcher with three solid pitches to strikeout opposing hitters. It’s just when he starts acting like Joey from The Real World: Hollywood is when we have to worry. (BTW, I like how the stripper/cokehead comes home with JoJo, a guy who wears a bling gun belt, and tells Joey that he’s a bit too messed up for her. That’s like getting blown off by… Well, a stripper/cokehead. BTW II, I would’ve put spoiler alert, but I don’t think anyone watches this shizz anyway. But I digress.) To think, Meche is better than Greinke. Karabell reminds me of the little kid who lives on my street. They mean well, yet I still wish them harm.

Travis Hafner – Okay, Pronk’s in a funk, but to drop him to sixth against a righty? So Dellucci could bat third? Listen, I’m as big a fan of fourth outfielders as the next guy, but Dellucci? I’m going to move on before I have aneurysm.

Jack Cust – Went 4-for-4 and deep. I really hope this is the start of big things because Rudy’s got him on his Razzball team. Cust kayin’.

Alexis Rios – Home run, steal, and the move to the leadoff spot doesn’t bother me that much. Where you thought you were getting RBIs, you’re now getting a few more runs. You won’t take 120/32/80/.300/25?

AJ Burnett – Burnett has been giving Rudy headaches lately. (Rudy doesn’t mind drafting AL pitchers; buy him a beer sometime and ask him about it. Or search the site. Whatever.) Burnett was wild, but unhittable last night against the Red Sox.

Hiroki Kuroda – Good start, but he seems completely unpredictable.

Paul Byrd – 1.71 ERA in last four starts. I guess that’s good if you had him for the last four starts. I wouldn’t want him for his next four.

Rafael Betancourt – Ichiro Suzuki (cause I use last names) scored on a fielding error by Blake (who was batting second, I’m assuming Wedge is trying to get fired). If you thought Kobayashi would be next line, he gave up the go ahead home run to The Big Sexy in the tenth.

JJ Putz – I think he threw one strike the entire inning and that was a hanging splitter to The Big FraGu. Maybe he’s hiding some lingering soreness from his injury? Just speculating.

Kerry Wood – I’m by no means a Wood apologist, but HBP, Soriano misplays a ball, infield single, walk, Braun hits a triple, it wasn’t really Wood’s fault. Just bad circumstances.

Eric Gagne – Walk, strikeout, then a bullet double play. Just good circumstances.

Carlos Marmol – I’m pretty sure he would’ve just struckout the side in his third inning of work. BTW, Marmol has 19 innings of work through May 1st. This will probably kill Marmol for next year, but Piniella doesn’t seem to care.

Brian Shouse – Second win this season by Shouse where he only needed one pitch. Get on board!