Fantasy Baseball Advice

Robinson Cano hit his third and fourth homer yesterday.  He’s now batting .395.  This will probably sound homeless-person-crazy since we’re only 12 days into the young season, but I think Cano could win the MVP and will win the batting title.  You thought Pedroia’s MVP season was nice from a fantasy standpoint?  How’s .330 and 30 homers coming from your 2nd baseman?  You like that?  What, you want it a little higher?  Okay, how’s .335?  Yeah, that feels good, doesn’t it?  I have Cano’s 2010 projections at 90/27/100/.315/5.  Hold those numbers up to the light and they sing gospel songs that will make your ears smile.  And Cano can exceed those numbers.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carlos Gonzalez – CarGo sounds like he’ll be shipped off to the DL. I’m officially a bad person because I’d be happy to see him get DL’d since I don’t own him anywhere.  Hey, Glockenspiel, what’s that speck on the map of Grey’s soul?  It’s a tiny city-state.  What’s the city-state called, Glockenspiel?  It’s called Schadenfreude!  This will mean more time for Seth Smith.  He’ll be covered more in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  Keep refreshing.  It’ll appear.

Jorge de la Rosa – 6 IP, 4 ER, 13 baserunners.  Why you little Whipper Crapper!

Bud Norris – 5 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 9 Ks.  It’s been said Chuck Norris could win at Connect Four in 3 moves.  Well, Bud Norris can strike out 9 in 5 innings (albeit using 100 pitches and walking 3 or 4).

Mat Latos – 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners.  See Jorge de la Rosa or an inch above.  Seriously, throw these three and Gio Gonzalez into a blender and you have one messy WHIP.   I like Ks, but at what price?

Astros Hitters – As a team, the Astros have 2 homers through 9 games.  Someone should take some egg whites and fold them into the Nats.  Two birds, one lemon meringue pie.  Even if Ed Wade’s toupee were pitching against the Astros, I’d start it in mixed leagues.

Carlos Zambrano – 5 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners.  Eh, Big Z’s a mediocre pitcher pitching mediocre, so not much to say, but he did make me think of something.  Member the Lil’ Penny Nike campaign?  Of course you do.  Put down your Razzhand.  Okay, so my question is why is there no Lil’ Z to go with Big Z?  We need a claymation expert, stat!  Lil’ Z can be on top of the Gatorade while Big Z’s flipping out.  “Look at you, the big bad man beating up a lemon-lime container!  Now everyone’s thirsty!  Sweet Lou’s gonna get sour!  You big dummy!” Hmm… My Lil’ Z sounds a bit like Redd Foxx, but we can work on that.

Derrek Lee – Returned and homered.  That is all.

Scott Kazmir – 4 IP, 6 ER.  I’m sure his owners are happy to have him back.

Casey McGehee – 1-for-3 with his third homer.  He’s in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, too.  Yes, I am pimping it a bit because there’s an announcement in there you’re gonna wanna read.

Mike Gonzalez – He’s now going to be out about a month.  My guess is Jim Johnson is getting saves still at the end of May.

Adam LaRoche – Sat out with a tight quad.  That’s what she said!  Hey, that made more sense this time.

Chad Qualls – Second blown save in a row.  Juan Gutierrez is the backup for you save vultures.  I already grabbed him in two leagues.

Daric Barton – 2-for-5 as he hits .343 on the year.  He has little power, but you can do worse in OBP leagues.

Shin-Soo Choo – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs with his third homer.  I own him in one league and you know what?  Loving Choo is easy cause you’re beautiful.

David Huff – 9 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  There’s some pitchers you grab, there’s other pitchers you let others grab.  Huff falls in the latter group, but could move to the former.  His 2008 K-rate and walk rate were decent in Triple-A, but he lost all those gains last year.  Worth watching to see if he can string some starts together, but I have my doubts.

Matt Harrison – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks.  His minor league K-rate is pretty bleh.  I wouldn’t bother outside of AL-Only leagues.

Elvis Andrus – 1-for-3, hitting leadoff.  This will mean less Runs for Borbon, but as long as he’s getting on base and stealing them, I wouldn’t worry.  I think I predicted Andrus would move to the top of the order by the middle of April.  Natch!  Actually, the prediction might’ve been for Alcides, but he’s moved up for some games, as well.  Natch point!

Cameron Maybin – 3-for-4 and a homer as he hits .310 on the year with 2 steals.  Looks like Maybin may be in (stutterer!) for a breakout.

Josh Johnson – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 10 Ks.  His porn star brother, Gosh Johnson, would be proud.

Alexei Ramirez – Homered yesterday.  It is still early, and he usually doesn’t start playing until May, but I’m not sure how much I believe you’re ever going to fully enjoy owning Alexei.

Travis Snider – Hallelujah!  Snider hit a homer yesterday.  I still think he could go back to striking out every fifth AB.  The potential is there though.

Fred Lewis – The Blue Jays acquired Lewis.  If this doesn’t push them over the Yanks, Sawx and Rays, I don’t know what does.

J.A. Happ – 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 BBs as sabermetricians cry onto their calculators.  Here’s a clean BABIP, wipe those tears away.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4, and a steal as he batted second.  Man, that was long overdue.  I hope we’re not heading down FeLopezian territory where every time I think about dropping Desmond he does just enough to buy himself some more time.

Ryan Zimmerman – After sitting out the last couple, he snuck into the game for a pinch hit homer.  Yeah, you got sonavabenched.  It’s all right, so did I with…

Francisco Liriano – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Sonavabench!  But he was going against the Red Sox!  He gave up 5 BBs to the White Sox in his last start.  It was the right call to bench him for the Red Sox.  Why do you hate me fantasy baseball gods?  Is it because I don’t capitalize gods?  Was it my crack about Jim Abbot two months ago?  I apologize to you and commenter, IowaCubs.  Please, embrace me again!  The rain makes me shiver.  Don’t let me shiver.  Okay, thanks for letting me vent.  Liriano goes against the Indians next time out.  Yes, please.  Though, he could go against the 1927 Yankees featuring a 2001 time traveling Barry Bonds and I’d start Liriano.  I’ve learned my lesson!

Jacoby Ellsbury – Can’t breath without sharp pain in his side.  Obviously, not a good thing.  He may end up *pinkie to mouth* D’Ellsburied.

Edwin Encarnacion – Will be out a few days with a sore arm.  If only he were a bigger star, so I could’ve used the title, “Clipped Edwing.”

Jose Guillen – Revealed yesterday that he almost died in 2009.  The Royals had the day  off and Guillen’s not hitting homers, so he reveals this?  Sounds like someone might be getting addicted to the press coverage.  This is how Heidi Montag started.  Before you know it, Butler won’t be the only one with a size C rack.

Roy Oswalt pulled something in his back and is presumably headed to the DL.  The bad news here is he was supposedly a 2nd half pitcher in some people’s minds, though my mind wasn’t yet made up.  It’s a guy’s prerogative to change his mind, or just not make it up at all.  As someone who has struggled with lower back pain for most of his adult life… Oh, who am I kidding?  I’m fit as a fiddle.  I once dwarf bowled a 170.  (Of course, he helped by kicking over that 7-10 split.)  Wait, what was I saying?  Oh, yeah!  Oswalt.  Yeah, he’s off to see a back specialist, the Astros are calling up Bud Norris, hopefully related to Chuck.  Bud Norris might sound familiar to some of youse.  Why?  Cause I just said his name in the previous sentence.  Hello, Mr. Short-Term Memory.  He also may sound familiar to you because he was in last week’s Scouting the Unknown.  For those too lazy to click-through, his walk rate isn’t pretty.  I’d grab him in NL-Only leagues and take a flier on him in 12 team and deeper mixed leagues if you really need the help, but he may cause migraines.  Best case scenario is he foolz (the kids love the Z) some hitters for about a month worth of starts and racks up the strikeouts while barely making it out of the 5th inning because of a high pitch count, see also Clay/ton Buchh/shaw.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

LaTroy Hawkins – His MRI came back negative on his back so he’s heading to the DL with shingles.  Whaaat?!?  Don’t you need to check off a few things before going from an MRI to shingles?  It’s not a bulging disk… Okay, let’s check for shingles.

Randy Johnson – Torn rotator cuff.  Just be glad I didn’t go with the title, Torn Johnson.

Clay Buchholz – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners and tied me to the WHIPping post.  The home plate ump looked like he wouldn’t call a strike.  Put Fieldin Culbreth behind home; he’ll call a strike.  Just be glad Buchholz got out of the 5th.  Against the A’s no less.  Not a great sign.  Go after a hitter.  Pitch to contact.  Trust your stuff.  Listen to Eck, would ya?

Scott Kazmir – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Sonavabench!  I fully expect him to go out and get rocked in his next game when I start him.  Kazmir, why do you hate me?

Fred Lewis – Took a real long time, but you know who’s finally hot?  Fred Lewis.  Maybe he finally figured out why I called him a sleeper in February.

Eugenio Velez – Hit a homer yesterday.  In other news, water’s dry.

CC Sabathia/Chad Billingsley – Belch.

Tommy Everidge – Was called up to replace Barton.  His minor league numbers look promising, but he’s not available anywhere until ESPN, Y! or CBS put him into their systems.  Though he’s not really worth a pickup yet, except in AL-Only leagues.

George Sherrill – People really seem to want him and it makes sense for the Orioles to trade him away if they can get anything.  As said elsewhere by me, you don’t need a closer to finish last.  The catch, and there’s always one, Baez and Johnson haven’t looked good at all recently.  It may come down to *cover your children’s eyes if they’re reading this* a committee.  I know!  Terrible.

Matt Wieters – 4-for-5, but what about Gregg Zaun?!

Kevin Correia – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks, 8 baserunners.  Perfectly acceptable game for a HodgePadre in an away game.  Unfortunately, I refuse to start him anywhere but home…

Heath Bell – Another guy that seems like he might be on the move.  And another situation that isn’t crystal clear.  Mujica’s held the 8th for the majority of the season, but he’s faltered recently.  Gregerson’s been fine, but he’s Luke Gregerson.  Mike Adams has been terrific too.  But he’s not even Luke Gregerson.  I’d hold Mujica or Gregerson, in that order.

Everth Cabrera – 3-for-4, 2 steals.  I loved EverCab when he first came up, then he did nothing for two weeks.  So I dropped him and then he did this to me (6 steals in the last week).  Yesterday in the comments, this was said by frequent commenter, Tom, “Hey remember that time you got back from church camp and destroyed all of your rebellious, edgy EverCab albums?  And remember that time 3 weeks later when you stopped dating that girl from camp, and you were really pissed that you threw them out?  Today is that day.”

Rafael Soriano – Has now given up runs in two of his last three games.  If you take nothing else away from today’s roundup, Soriano goes through stretches where he’s terrible.  You’ve been warned.

Leo Nunez – Gave up a run, Lindstrom’s due back in a week.  You’ve been warned.  Again.

Nyjer Morgan – Since I already pointed out my goof on EverCab, I’ll cop to this one too.  I bungled Nyjer.  He’s been a very decent SAGNOF source.  I even tried to trade for him in one league.  I think I was ignored.  Hey, don’t take my Garrett Jones.  It’s fine by me (please stay hot Jones, please).

Elvis Andrus – HR and steal yesterday.  No lie, in one league I literally dropped him two days ago.  Momma said there would be days like these…

Clete Thomas – I picked him up and he went 0-for-4.  I grabbed him because he’s batting third for the Tigers.  Why’s he batting third?  I don’t know.  Buy Leyland a pack of Marlboro Reds and maybe he’ll tell you.

Jhonny Peralta – This year he’s carrying the Silent H Torch for him and Khalil, and has three straight games with a homer as he bats over .400 in the last 7 games.

Scott Downs – 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  People were yelling fire in the comments yesterday that Frasor’s due to take over, they might be right.  Downs has given up runs in four of his last five games.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Downs hit the Disgraceful List.

Chien-Ming Wang – Visited Dr. Freeze and was put on ice for the season.  Imagine Dr. Andrews misunderstood, “Something’s wrong with Wang,” as something was wrong with his wang.  Ah, the yucks a bad Farrelly brothers movie could have with that.

Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 2 ER, Save.  He’s really got the save down pat where he gives up 2 runs.  It’ll be funny in the playoffs when he loses a key game and McCarver’s like, “He’s usually so reliable.”  Joe Buck *interminable pause* then, “We’ll be back here tomorrow for game five.”

Dan Haren – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners.  Now has two straight so-so starts by his 1st half of starts’ standards.  Honestly, I was pretty happy with this so-so start.  He gets the Mets in Metco next, so hopefully he can be decently so-so again.

Adam Dunn – Hit a homer out of Miller Park.  Then had his blue ox run the bases.

Mark Buehrle – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Back to life… Back to reality… and Johnny Vander Meer’s family is once again free to make plans.

Josh Fields – Being dropped from the roster for Mark Kotsay.  Fields wants a trade from the White Sox.  Maybe if you robbed a homer to seal a perfect game, you wouldn’t be getting dropped.  Think about that!

Mark Kotsay – Traded to the White Sox for Brian Anderson.  What’s the point of this trade?  Did Kenny Williams get a look at Kotsay’s wife?  This is the most irrelevant trade since Jose Lima was traded to the Kia Tigers for a bottle of kimchi.

On Sunday, Akinori Iwamura was carted off the field. (No, it wasn’t some sorta Japanese custom when a player makes an out.)  So Reid Brignac may get some short-term value if the Rays play him.  Right now, they don’t seem committed to that plan.  And, frankly, I can see why.  He hasn’t exactly been tearing it up in Triple A.  The Rays should go to Ben Zobrist aka The Best Home Run Hitter In The World With The Last Name Zobrist.  With shortstop eligibility and potentially 2nd base, Zobrist will have value getting everyday at-bats.  Much has been made of Zobrist’s out-of-the-blue power surge.  The only explanation that seems to be out there is that he worked in the offseason with Jaime Cevallos, The Swing Mechanic.  (Turns out he helped Little Jake Current too!)  Honestly, I don’t think it matters much for Ben Zobrist since he already has shortstop eligibility.  It’s worth a flier to see if the power continues.  Just don’t cut anyone too worthwhile for that flier, including Little Jake Current — he’s got power to all fields!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Troy Percival – Hit the DL and made J.P. Izzywheelfourson the closer.  I grabbed Nelson and Wheeler anywhere I could.  This could easily become Isringhausen’s… Or Balfour’s… Or Howell’s.  Unlike the Nats ‘pen, the guy who wins the Rays raffle will have value so it’s worth grabbing one and praying it ends up being your guy.  The Rays used Izzy last on Saturday like he was a closer, though it was a non-save situation.  If you don’t have room in 12 team leagues and shallower, I’d cut Percy.  The next game he may be closing is the Hall of Famers vs. Non-Hall of Famers Game, which would take place during the All-Star Game festivites, if I had my way.  Like you wouldn’t pay to see Lee Smith try to prove his case against Gary Carter.  Would have to be better than watching Kenny Mayne throw like a girl.  (I’m still holding out hope for the Fattest Guy With No Power Home Run Derby too.  C’mon, Sandoval vs. Billy Butler!  Or everyone’s (soon-to-be) favorite contest, Worst Strikeout Pitcher Faces Off Against Chris Davis!  C’mon, Joel Pineiro!)

Jesus Guzman – Word out of the Tenderloin is Ishikawa isn’t long for the every day job.  Makes sensei.  He is Sucki-san.  If Guzman somehow pulls himself into an every day job, could be huge in ESPN leagues where he’s inexplicably a shortstop.  Though Guzman did not play on Sunday.  *shakes fist* Bochy!

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 3 HRs in the last seven games.  I know, Padres hitters are yawnstipating, but the Kouz is hot.

Dexter Fowler – 7-for-15 in his 4 games and batting leadoff.  Has been as good recently as Ian Stewart’s been bad.

Brad Lidge – Hey, whaddya know?  Another blown save!  He has a 9.19 ERA on the year.  Philly says there will be no closer change.  I say yet.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER, which should’ve been one because of a misplay in the outfield.  This was a heartbreaking no decision (for me).

Matt Lindstrom – He embarrassed himself and his family on Saturday then came in on Sunday and retired two guys and walked three before being relieved by Kiko Calero.  Kiko’s pitching the best in the Marlins bullpen, but Nunez hasn’t been awful… Okay, he’s been just all right.  I think Nunez gets the first chance when Lindstrom’s replaced, but it might be Calero.  If you’re a save vulture, you should be grabbing one of them now, because Lindstrom doesn’t seem long for the closer role.

Kelly Johnson – HRs in back-to-back games.  He’s sitting at .252 on the year, he can get up to .280 within a few weeks.

Joe Mauer – Another game, another homer.  I heard Selena Roberts was seen digging through his trash.

Manny Delcarmen – Been lights out so far in middle relief.  Rumors are swirling that he might be headed to the Nats to be their closer with Nick Johnson headed to the Sawx, pushing Big Crapi to the bench.  I don’t think the Sawx have the cojones to bench Papi, they’d have to convince him to go to the Disgraceful List.  In deep leagues, Delcarmen should be owned, though some Mr. B’s probably already have him.

Daniel Murphy, Angel Pagan, Gary Sheffield, Jeremy Reed, Ramon Castro, Ramon Martinez – Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 New York Mets!

Adam Jones – Hit his 10th homer yesterday while stealing his 4th bag.  Should cruise to 25/15, then Jamaica.

Alexei Ramirez – 2 HRs this weekend.  Mazel tov!

Mark Buehrle – Only Mark Buehrle could give up only one run after surrendering 12 hits while striking out only 3.  Cust kayin’.

Joel Hanrahan – Picked up the save with a perfect inning.  Apparently, he’s the closer again.

Adam Dunn – 2 HRs, 6 RBIs.  That’s not a donkey, this is a donkey.

Emmanuel Burriss – The Giants also announced they would be putting Frandsen into a platoon with Burriss.  Burriss has speed; Frandsen offers nothing.

Pablo Sandoval – Sat out yesterday with elbow trouble and will go for tests on Monday.   I hope they test his cholesterol.

Chris Iannetta – Hit the DL with a hamstring strain.   Jessica Alba and Joe Torre hybrid, Yorvit Torrealba, will have some short-term value in deep leagues.  For catchers that could be available in some leagues, I’d go Snyder, Salty, Torrealba or Diaz, in that order.

Miguel Tejada – 4-for-4 yesterday, 3 HRs in the last 6 games.  Someone’s in the Way Back Machine.

Josh Outman – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, Zero Ks.  When you don’t strikeout one Diamondback, I’m not buying.

Jason Giambi – Second straight game with a homer.  For those in shallow leagues, he hits them in bunches.  Some would say in “cycles.”

Barry Zito – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Glad the old baked Zito showed up just as I added him.

Fred Lewis – Two games, two home runs.  I wish he’d just get to 15/15 in a month then I could drop him, but that’s not how these things work.  Except for Mark Reynolds.

Derrek Lee – Missed Sunday’s game with an undisclosed illness.  I thought it was called Suckitis.

Francisco Rodriguez – Might be the first time I’ve mentioned him in roundup.  (I tend not to mention guys that are doing what they’re supposed to be.)  K-Rod is suffering from back spasms, so the Mets are inserting Putz into their opening.  K-Rod said he’s feeling much better after being medicated.  In other news, K-Rod’s addicted to painkillers.  Sounds like he’ll be back by the end of the week at the latest.

Brandon Phillips – Hairline fracture on thumbkin.  Phillips said, “I told (the Reds) I don’t want to go on the DL.”  Um, okay.  And then you sit out yesterday’s game?  This sounds worse than the Reds are letting on.

Joey Votto – Ear infection had him benched on Sunday after hitting 2 homers on Saturday.  I totally feel for Votto.  Last time I had an ear infection, I rolled around for days crying.  Then again, I was 6 months old.

Brandon McCarthy – 9 IP, 0 ER and 6 Ks.  Solid game, but he’s way too unpredictable to pick up in mixed leagues.   As for this game, maybe McCarthy thought he was facing the Reds.

After a great first week (3 HR, 5 RBI), Troy Tulowitzki has done a whole lot of nothing. From 4/12 to 4/29, 0 HR and 0 RBI. He’s K-ing in 28% of his ABs, almost double his career rate.  He’s now sporting a .200 AVG for the year. He got ‘benched’ for a game in favor of Clint Barmes.  So what’s the silver lining?  First and foremost, Tulo is a slow starter.  Unlike Robby Cano and LaRoche Sr., he lived up to his historically poor form.  In 2007-2008, he hit .197 over 187 April ABs.  When his K goes back to his normal 15% and the BABIP pendulum swings at least a little to the middle (at .225 right now), the AVG will take care of itself.  He’s too young and Colorado is too elevated to think he can’t get 20+ HRs if he stays healthy all year.  Once the weather starts heating up, expect Tulo to heat up as well.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Lance Berkman – He’s batting .162.  I think owners might fear Berkman’s too old or it’s one of those years when he just sucks.  There’s no way his average stays that low, so we’re looking at a major correction for a career .300 hitter.  Think of a .400 June.  That’s hawt!

Brandon Phillips – Like my hair during the heyday of Vanilla Ice, Phillips is streaky (with blonde highlights!).  Phillips will go a month where he’s dreadful.  April was one of those months.  He can just as easily hit .290 in May and hit 5 HRs and get 7 steals.  Check raise to the bettor, snitches!

Phil Hughes – It’s Phil of the Future… Finally, now.  Maybe.  But it’s worth a flier to find out.

Chad Gaudin – He’s in Petco?  Yes, please.

Eric Patterson – His family originates from Patterson, NJ and when Eric was born in Holy Oak Hospital they looked out the window and saw a passing bus with a man they thought was Eric Roberts driving said bus.  It wasn’t, but they liked the name.  Oh, and Eric Patterson can steal.

Ryan Madson – Whether Lidge goes to the DL or not, Madson can be owned.  If Lidge goes to the DL, Madson should be owned.

Julian Tavarez – SAGNOF!

Joe Beimel – Only if you have room on your DL.  Don’t load up on Nats relievers, they’re bad for your complexion.

Kendry Morales – When I wrote a sleeper post two months ago about this guy I was widely ignored.  And I will probably be ignored again.  He’s kind of like Mike Jacobs with less power but a better average.  Enticing!

Andruw Jones – I really don’t trust this guy to keep the bottom from falling out, but if you get a good week or two from him, whatevs.

Adam Rosales – Who knows how long Edwin’s going to be out?  You a doctor?  Nah, me either.  Though I did help deliver Eric Patterson and that was Eric Roberts driving that bus!  Rosales should be owned in NL-Only leagues.

Brett Cecil – Okay, the newest rookie pitcher to add in leagues deeper than 10 team mixed.  Cecil may do a lot of nothing in this promotion, so I’d bench him for his first start.  Why pickup a pitcher to bench, you ponder internally.  Here’s the thing, and it’s the same reason I told you to grab Holland last week, if a rookie pitcher explodes on the scene, you want to own him.  And a lot of times a rookie pitcher will come on like a comet burning brightly for a couple of starts.  (Cueto’s first two starts last year: 13 1/3 IP, 18 Ks, 3 ER, 0 Walks)  But, like a comet, his fire will probably burn out quickly when the league catches up to him.  Then hot rookie callup pitcher will go into a correction period, lasting a few months.  Now, while the whole world’s set ablaze with him, you can flip him for a junky closer.  School’s out, Alice Cooper.

Carlos Quentin – You probably think I’m dropping ‘ludes putting Quentin on the Buy list when he’s already sitting on 8 HRs.  Could he get better?  Yeppers!  Right now, Quentin’s sporting a very low BABIP, which means he’s been unlucky.  May could be even better.

Huston Street -  The horsies go up and down as the Rockies closer carousel continues to spin.  Put on one of those faded leather seatbelts that smells like baby vomit and get on.

Matt LaPorta – It’s a renaissance for guys with a capitalized letter in the middle of their last name — LaPorta, LaRoche, LaSagna.

SELL

Matt Holliday – Sorry, but you shouldn’t have bought him to begin with.

Kosuke Fukudome – Don’t drop him, but if you think he’s going to be productive all year, you’re mistaken.  Not mistaken like, “What Adam’s Apple?”  But mistaken nevertheless.

Fred Lewis – Maybe beans do burn on the grill.  Lewis is batting near .300 with 1 RBI and 1 steal.  Those are “Grandpa” Al Lewis levels of production.

Kelly Johnson – Johnson seems to always flirt with being benched for some also-ran, this month it’s Omar Baby.  Then Johnson always seems to come back in a month or two and hit the cover off the ball.  Happens every year.  Chuck KJ for now in 12 team mixed leagues or shallower, and come back to him when he’s hot. (BTW, how cool would it be if your name was Chuck KJ?  That’s it.  No last name.  Not short for Charles.  Just Chuck KJ.  Splash on a bottle of Drakkar, hit the bar and get laid.  Why?  Cause you’re Chuck KJ!)

BABIP is Batting Average for Balls In Play.  And they do lie, sometimes.  But who can resist a title alluding to a Shakira song?  Not me!  BABIP is a quick way to know how much luck a hitter is having.  There’s more to it, but for the purposes of this, above .300 BABIP for a hitter and it means the hitter could hit a bloop single just over the pitcher’s head with a drawn in infield.  Below .200 and the hitter could hit a line drive into the Grand Canyon and it would get caught by Alice on the back of a mule.  Then there’s HR/FB%, which is a quick way to know if a hitter is hitting more home runs than what makes sense for that player’s amount of fly balls.  Then there’s LD%, which is the percentage of hits that are line drives.  Line drives are usually a sign of solid contact aka a player is hitting the ball hard.  Finally, K% or the percentage a hitter Ks.  So why all the fancy acronyms?  Well, the other day a FOR (Friend of Razzball), jsp2014 threw this nugget into the comments:

“I was curious about who’s been lucky and unlucky so far for some buy low/sell high ideas, so I did a little research on Fangraphs.  I figured this could be useful to others as well:

Min. 50 PAs

Lowest BABIP (look for the AVG to go up): Zaun, Byrnes, Berkman (.171), Rollins (.172), Encarnacion (.175), McCann (.176), Tulo (.176), Alex Gonzalez, Hardy (.178), Quentin (.184), Phillips (.184)

Highest BABIP (due to come back down to earth): F.Lewis (.543), Youk (.490), Flores, Votto (.469), Beltran (.464), B.anderson, Markakis (.441), Asdrubal, Abreu (.426), F.Sanchez, B.Roberts (.415)

Highest HR/FB (expect the HR pace to slow for most of these): Young (42%), Adrian Gonzalez (35%; career 16.5%), Quentin (32%; 21% last year), C.Davis (31%; 21% last year), Thome (31%; career 28%), Inge (30%; career 10%), Reynolds (29%; career 18%), Dye, Pena, Jeter, Overbay, Branyan, Fukudome, Uggla, Tulo

Highest LD% (unsustainable but means they’ve made a lot of solid contact): N.Johnson, Salty, Feliz, Fields, Rolen, Blum, Teahen, Fukudome, Bartlett, Asdrubal, Castillo, Dukes, Youk, Bourn, Andy LaRoche

Highest K-Rate: C.Davis (49%!), Maybin (42), Thome (38), Dickerson (38), Upton (38), Schafer (37), Salty (37), Flores (37), F.Lewis (36), Reynolds (36), Fielder (35), Fields (34), Upton (33)”

That’s a great comment right there, and I appreciate it.  Now what can we gleam from this?

Fred Lewis – With his power and speed Crapolanco-like, his average is due to regress.  Might want to get out while the gettin’ is good.

Lance Berkman – He’s been the anti-Fred Lewis.  All power, no average.  That will get better.

Kevin Youkilis – While he will continue to be solid, he won’t be this solid.

Adrian Gonzalez – He always seems to start the year on fire and cool off as the summer heats up (Maybe he needs a trade to San Francisco?  It’s cold there in the summer.).  This year probably won’t be any different.

Brandon Inge – Because he’s eligible at catcher, he’s not a straight sell candidate but the homers will eventually dry up.

Troy Tulowitzki – As a career .312 BABIP hitter, he’s due to explode at some point soon.  Buy into the correction.

Cameron Maybin – His K% shows he’s struggling.  Yeah, no kidding.

Jimmy Rollins – Maybe luck has knocked the wheels off of J-Roll in the early going.

Geovany Soto – Just missed the cutoff of 50 ABs, but he has a .161 BABIP.  Shoulder might not be the only thing holding him back.

Jesus Flores – Don’t believe his early season flash, the pan’s coming soon.