Fantasy Baseball Advice

There’s so much to love about Fred Lewis. Let’s see… Power — check! Speed — check! A name that sounds like an 80s sitcom character — check! I’ll take Fred Lewis in the center square for the win. Alas, Fred Lewis is about to undergo season-ending surgery on a foot bunion. (The operating podiatrist hopes his patented Toe, Hairy and Curly procedure will one day be as recognized as Tommy John surgery.) I still like Lewis for next year, but this is this year, fool! So now it’s up to German Pantyhose to cover for Lewis’s bunions. Schierholtz had a sexy minor league OBP and power. NL-Only leagues and deep mixed leagues should be looking at Schierholtz, especially keeper leagues. There’s no reason why he can’t excel and there’s even less reason why the Giants don’t play him next year. Unless, of course, they sign Aurilla and Vizquel to four-year deals. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tom Gorzelanny - Left the game with an irritation in his middle finger. Pirates fans will happily give him their middle finger.

Scott Lewis - The Lewis without bunions threw 8 innings of shutout ball. He pitched well in the minors this year and I would take a flier in deep leagues. He gets the Twins next time out.

Eugenio Velez - 2-for-5, 4 RBIs, including the 2nd day in a row that he knocked in the game-winning runs. He’s a 2nd baseman with speed that might now get a majority of the starts over Ochoa.

Brian Wilson - 2nd blown save in a row (that I predicted in the comments yesterday and the day before). He’s not going anywhere as the closer unless he’s hiding an injury, which I doubt.

Joel Hanrahan - Kazaam!

Brandon Lyon - In a sign of solidarity with his fellow Diamondbacks pitchers, he blew his own win. He did manage to lower his post All-Star break ERA to 10.91.

Taylor Teagarden - HR yesterday for his 4th in 24 at-bats. Right now, the Rangers seem like the Rockies of the late 90s. They could plug in Luis Castillo and get 30/100. Yet still suck. Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, Teagarden, they all homered yesterday and they all could homer tomorrow (or K three times). Recognize!

Kelly Shoppach - 2 HRs yesterday. I have Shoppach, Dioner and Doumit on three separate teams. One was an All-Star, one was hyped up and one backed up V-Mart. Guess which one is doing the best. Fantasy Baseball, this shizz is predictably unpredictable. Ya gotta love it.

Manny Ramirez - Nearly .400 while chipping in 14 HRs and 40 RBIs in 129 at-bats since joining the Dodgers. Good thing the Sawx got that albatross off from around their necks.

Ted Lilly - 8 IP, 1 ER. Wholly inconsistent and I wouldn’t want my fantasy baseball championship decided by this schmohawk, but you do what you do. He gets the Brewers next.

Kevin Slowey - 7 IP, 1 ER. Here’s a schmohawk I can get behind. He gets the Indians next.

James Parr - 6 IP, 0 ER and no relation to Jamie Farr. So far he’s thrown 12 innings of shutout ball. Maybe he’s just got hitters baffled because they haven’t seen him before. Deep leagues should be looking at him just in case he can keep it going. I have my doubts though.

Troy Percival - Left the game with back spasms. The Rays should just have Wheeler play 2nd when Percival pitches to save everyone time by doing a double switch. By his own admission, Percival will be out for a few days. I don’t think he said it in third person like Suede from Project Runway.

Felix Pie - Will see time down the stretch. Weird, cause I really thought Edmonds and Fukudome were doing a spot-on job.

Adam LaRoche - HR yesterday. He’s not only due, but he’s hot. Hot and due (yes, that does sound like a weird preggers porn) is a great combo to have in mid-September.

Kelly Johnson - 2 HRs yesterday. Against righties, he should be started on all teams. When he gets hot, he can put up very nice stats in a short period of time. He’s already hitting .486 in September. Get on that Johnson! (Um, huh?)

Cristian Guzman - 2 HRs yesterday. In other news, smoking is a healthy alternative to “just breathing.”

I don’t like Brandon Webb. Why, Grey? Why the hard feelings? Did he have sex with your sister and then make you smell his fingers? No, you sick bastard. In 2004, I owned Brandon Webb in a league that counted Ks minus BBs and Webb had 119 walks that year, which is about twice his usual amount. I left that season vowing never to draft him again. So what did he do since my vow? He went on to become one of the top pitchers in the game. Did he become great as a personal vow of vengeance against me? Probably. Now just because Brandon Webb wants to be petty doesn’t mean I have to be, too. So while he has sucked dog balls over the last month, am I celebrating his struggles during Mojito Night at Case de Grey? No, it’s not necessary. A 6.05 ERA in June is bad. He knows. I don’t need to point out the obvious. Only 14 strikeouts in 22 IP is dreadful. In his last two games his ERA is 9.58. That’s 11 ER in 10.1 IP. Ugh and ugly. So this is great news for me because I get to see Webb struggle, but even better news for all of you that don’t own him. Not simply for the schadenfreude glee you get from seeing your friends miserable. (But that helps!) No, his recent struggles opens up a buying opportunity. Last year his Pre-All Star break ERA was 3.37; Post-All Star was 2.56.  His three year average against is .256 before the break and .239 after. I’m not a huge fan of trading for pitchers, especially not top ones, but while Webb struggles, there might be a chance to get him cheaper than usual. So if you need to get a pitcher, Webb should get better. Anyway, here’s some other players to buy and sell in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Chris Davis - Mentioned this morning. How’s that for timeliness?

Fred Lewis - On one hand, he has a name that sounds like he should be an 80s sitcom character, on the other he has 6 HRs and 13 steals. Consider him a weak man’s 30/30. Say 10/30?

Steven Pearce - Starting to hit everything he sees out of the park. Pirates prospect should get a look soon once the Pirates realize they should be playing for next year. (Yes, they should’ve been playing for next year in March. That’s cute. Did you think up that one on your own?)

Vladimir Guerrero - He already made one Buy list. Guess what? I’m still buying. Not because I think he’ going to go 40/40 after the break, but I do think he will be better than he has been and his price tag is extremely low right now.

Jim Thome - I noticed he was on waivers in one of my ten team leagues. Hmm… Once interleague is over, I’m picking him up. As a utility guy, he’s that bad? (That was rhetorical!)

Wandy Rodriguez - Well you came and you gave without taking, but I sent you away, oh Wandy… Where else do you go to get your fantasy baseball and Barry Manilow fill in one place? (That’s not rhetorical.)

Ryan Church - He should be back this weekend from his concussion. (On a side note, I was hit by a truck in college, knocking me into a coma. Long story short, I was back within the week getting drunk on Lansdowne. The truck was bigger than Marlon Anderson. Seriously, Willie might have made a misstep chucking Church back in there the next day, but now Church’s moving close to pulling a Kotchman.)

Gary Sheffield - Sheffield hates you. He just does. There’s no rhyme or reason. He especially hates those who think he can’t play anymore. To prove your stupid face wrong, he will continue to hit and prove his worth. But Sheff has the distinction of being both a Buy and a Sell. See below why he’s a “Sell.” (Talk about hedging my bets!)

SELL

Gary Sheffield - He’s old and steroids are now banned. Nagging injuries become DL stints and “Sheff needs a day off.” It’s hard for me to hate on Sheff too much; Sheff talks about himself in third person. Grey likes that, but Grey also is not picking Sheff up in any league.

Carlos Pena - If Pena was dropped in any league while he was injured, he’s worth grabbing to see if he can get hot. But, like Chief Jay Strongbow, I have my reservations. Then again, I used to think George Michael was straight, so I’ve been wrong in the past. Wait, this sounds like a Buy. Yeah, it is sorta (Grey’s hedging again!), but I also think Pena will be a season long bust and if Pena gets hot I think he should be sold immediately before he gives you a .220 average.

Francisco Liriano - He might be a Buy again next week, but for now, I’m dropping him. He’s looked bad in his last two minor league starts.

Kurt Suzuki - He had two home runs in the last two weeks and now he’s a hot add. An arm wrestling match between Suzuki vs. Kendall would last for three hours with one of them quitting because of a broken nail.

Eric Stults - I loved him as Rocky Dennis. Is he some kind of wonderful? Eh.

J.D. Drew - He will break your heart, just ask Philly.

Milton Bradley - He hates you more than Sheff. Larry King seems to think Milton Bradley should add “Fun For All Ages” at the end of his name. I think Milton Bradley would Chacon the air from your lungs if he heard you say that.

Chien Ming Wang is out at least 6-10 weeks with a foot sprain.  (Yes, Wang limp until September.) Drop Wang.  Drop him now.  Definitely a blow for the Yanks. (Yes, usually Wang takes blow, not dealt one.)  If you were counting on him to pitch you to the fantasy pennant, you’ve got bigger issues. (Yes, your Wang problems are “big” issues.) Who are the Yankees turning to? Dan Giese. The new Yankee starter is a 31 year old phenom who has pitched for the Phillies and Giants affiliates the past two years.  Did we say phenom?  We meant journeyman.  But he had been a reliever who was known to have good stuff.  The Yanks made him a starter and his AAA numbers this year were fantastic - 59 IP, 1.98 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 51/14 K/BB.  Maybe he’s the next Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon?  Or at least another Darrell Rasner. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball:

Fernando Rodney - He’s been activated and he gave up 3 ER in a third of an inning. Welcome back!

Marcus Thames - 7HR in 9 Games. A frequent commenter RT added him 6 games ago. That’s awesome (for him)! But this got me thinking, we should divvy up all of the streakiest hitters and everyone should take one. So whenever your guy goes off, you tell everyone else. Not sure how to implement this, seems like a thing for the forums.

Justin Verlander - So he should’ve got the win, but, and I know it’s of little consolation, at least he was up for a win.

Curtis Granderson - 3 steals on the year. Pudge has 6. That’s awesome. I’m so bummed I didn’t get Grandy in any league. He’s bonafide!

Fred Lewis - .326 and 2 HRs in June, but only two steals. He can steal five in a week if he gets the urge.

Ryan Howard - Made his case for the heavyweight championship with 2 HR and a triple against the Sawx.  Howard’s been hot of late with 4 HR and 12 RBI in his last four games while cutting down his Ks to once every 4 AB.   The gauntlet has been set Mr. Fielder - do you accept the challenge?

JD Drew - Everyone on the Sawx seems to be getting hurt except Drew.  Now he’s on a streak - 7 HR in 17 G.  I bet the HR in Philly so pissed off the locals.  Who’s next on the Sawx to get hot?  Sean Casey?  Julio Lugo?

Andrew Miller - 7 IP, 1 ER. The Marlins are the last team to ever play in Seattle. Marlins pitchers now understand what everyone was talking about.

Bill Bavasi - We have a guy from Seattle in our cash league that always ends up with Mariners and even he admits Bill Bavasi is god awful.  Let’s count the ways.  Sexson to a monster contract.  A rotation that includes Washburn, Batista, and a $10MM/per Carlos Silva.  Paying off Adrian Beltre after a career year.  Jose Vidro at DH.  Extension for a Japanese catcher that his pitchers don’t like throwing to.  I’d let Bill Bavasi into any of my cash leagues next year…except for a Razzball one…he’s a natural.

That’s right. It’s awful. Just as I wanted it. Why? Because this team is for the inaugural Fantasy Razzball League. The idea is to have a team that sucks. Draft the worst possible team and watch them flail/fail. Is it an exercise in futility? You bet. My co-conspirators in this were:

RotoProfessor.com
Greener on the Other Side
Mop Up Duty
Herb Urban
Cards in the Attic
Lou Poulas (Fantasy Insider Online, Sweet Lou’s Baseball Lab, Razzball.com)
Fantasy Baseball Generals
Josh, the Non-Blogger
Razzball.com (Rudy Gamble)
Razzball.com (Grey Albright)

Come with me as I take out the trash:

1. (10) Akinori Iwamura 3B
2. (11) José Vidro 1B,2B
3. (30) César Izturis 3B,SS
4. (31) Chone Figgins 2B,3B,OF
5. (50) Shawn Chacón P
6. (51) Rajai Davis OF
7. (70) Chris Denorfia OF
8. (71) Brian Giles OF
9. (90) Carlos Silva P
10. (91) Juan Pierre OF
11. (110) Miguel Olivo C
12. (111) Josh Fogg P
13. (130) Mark Redman P
14. (131) Kip Wells P
15. (150) Félix Pié OF
16. (151) Willy Aybar 3B
17. (170) Lenny DiNardo P
18. (171) Joel Piñeiro P
19. (190) Kyle Davies P
20. (191) Wily Mo Peña OF
21. (210) Willie Harris OF
22. (211) J.P. Howell P
23. (230) Mark Reynolds 3B
24. (231) Tony Gwynn OF
25. (250) Ronny Cedeño SS
26. (251) Geoff Blum 2B,3B,SS
27. (270) Jon Leicester P

Random thoughts about various rounds of the draft:

1. I picked tenth and grabbed Iwamura. He might have second base eligibility soon, but I’ll be playing him at the hot corner. A few picks that went before that I thought were dreadful, which is to say I liked, were Aurilla (who’ll inexplicably get at-bats at first) and Taveras (remember steals don’t count in this league). Best, which is to say worst, pick of the first round? Lou took Alex Rodriguez. I thought he heard something of an Arod/Wilson Betemit platoon, but it turned out Lou arrived three minutes late to the draft. Not the kind of league you want Y! autodrafting for you.

3. The Treanor/Rabelo blah-toon jumped off the board this round to two different teams. Sorta like when you draft Borowski then the next guy grabs Betancourt. It’s just not right, but it’s the smart move. Be interesting to see who gets to suck for the majority of the playing time behind the plate in Florida. I was happy to grab Cesar Izurtis at 30. LaRussa gave Aaron Miles, Eckstein and Adam Kennedy, like, 3000 at-bats last year. He’ll think he upgraded with Izurtis. Steal of the third round: Adam Everett; full-time job and he’ll make Twins fans miss Punto. (Interesting side note: Both Cesar and Maicer Izturis went in this round. They’re sorta like the Aaron brothers if Hank didn’t exist.)

4. I almost went Livan Hernandez, but I figured he’d last until the fifth round. I underestimated how hyped he was going into the draft and Herb scooped him at 32 right after I took Chone Figgins. Figgins’s at-bats/lack of HRs was too much to pass up, but I hope this doesn’t come back to haunt me. Who knows, maybe I can work out a deal to send Carlos Silva and Joel Pinero for Livan? We’ll see.

11. You’re probably wondering why I waited so long to grab a catcher. Simply, there’s a deep pool of crappy catchers. Lots of great names already jumped off the board: Kendall (1), Paulino (1), the blah-toon of Rabelo/Treanor (3) and Brian Schneider (8, great inverse value, btw). So I went with Miguel Olivo. Here’s hoping for a speedy (partial) recovery from his injury so he comes back with lingering pain and swinging at everything. (I think there’s a good chance he’s going to be even worse this year without Miguel Cabrera around to hug him every couple of innings.)

20. Wily Mo Pena was a bit of a reach on my part, but I’m hoping his oblique never fully recovers and he’s simply a K’ing machine. Another pick I love in this round, Mike Mussina. From potential HOF’er to Fantasy Razzball draft steal in two years. Don’t cha love baseball?

26. Geoff Blum will help serve my Fantasy Razzball strategy (Basically, punt runs, load up on top of the order/speedy types and then substitute Blum, Cedeno, Harris in when I can afford it with the at-bats limit.) In this round, loved Mop Up Duty’s (appropriate site name, don’t ya think?) Brad Ausmus pick. JR Towles might be billed as a future All-Star, but rarely do catchers succeed in their rookie year. Ausmus is just too lacking to pass up on. Also, great flier by Fantasy Baseball Generals with Brian Burress. Here’s hoping he snags that fifth spot in the Orioles rotation then proceeds to pitch a mediocre 150 innings, doing just enough to neither succeed or be demoted.

Overall thoughts: My team is designed how I hoped it would: high at-bats, low home runs, middling average. The juggling to lessen my runs will be the difficulty. But it’s only appropriate that I should be juggling with a team filled with clowns.

Friends are going to spring training in Arizona this year and I was invited. Intrasquad games and closers coming in for the third inning? I took a pass. The only thing exciting about spring training is its conclusion. Nevertheless, there are some things to keep an eye out for while continuing to catch every episode of the RR/RW Challenge: The Gauntlet. (BTW, The show is an hour now, but I almost wish it were only a half hour so there would be twice as many episodes. Talk about bittersweet. Loved how Danny was happy his wife, Melinda, got a concussion so she wouldn’t be vulnerable for elimination. That’s love!)

Felipe Lopez – It’s official; Felipe Lopez slept with Manny Acta’s wife. Last year, he refused to play small ball and it cost Felipe Lopez (as Gollum would say) precious steals. This year, Acta announced Ronnie Belliard would be the 2nd baseman and Cristian Guzman would be the shortstop, leaving Lopez on the bench. I don’t think highly of Felipe Lopez, but saying Cristian Guzman is a poor man’s Felipe Lopez is an insult to poor men everywhere. Watch to see if Felipe can get off the bench and in the lineup somewhere because he could be a bargain if he’s taken in the final rounds. Cristian Guzman’s going to suck and stink, but he won’t stick.

Cubs Closer – Marmol, Howry or Wood? Wood, Marmol or Howry? Hell if I know. My guess is Howry because Piniella’s got a thing for the proven and Howry’s the closest thing to proven. If you had ESPN Deportes, you saw Marmol be lights out in the Caribbean Series for his DR team. Wood can be lights out. Whichever way this goes, you need to know.

Dave Roberts – You’re rooting for him to perform badly in spring training so Fred Lewis (potential steals) or Nate Schierholtz (potential power) get a chance. If it makes you feel any better rooting for the end to Roberts, keep telling yourself he had a nice career. (Sure, it would be a lie, but whatever. If you can’t lie to yourself, who can you lie to?)

Colby Rasmus – In his Double A debut, .275/.381/.551 with 29 home runs, 37 doubles and 18 stolen bases. Could he unseat Ryan Ludwick in rightfield? I think sooner rather than later, but it may not be as early as this spring training. He will probably take over sometime this year though, so keeper owners need to have Rasmus on the brain at draft time.

The entire Oakland A’s lineup – You need to see who is batting and where, especially in AL-only leagues. If Cust is cleanup and Chavez is batting third, then they need to be drafted in mixed leagues. Barton batting second? Might not be bad to take a flier. Chris Denorfia is going to be entering that magical 27 year-old year. (And, yes, that is the only time magical and Chris Denorfia will ever be in the same sentence.) He’s considered to be the frontrunner for centerfield and could potentially give you 10/20 numbers with a .280 in a full season of at-bats. “Could” is the key word.

Tomorrow, I’ll look at some more spring training battles.