Fantasy Baseball Advice

This is the 4th post in a series on the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot.  My first post on Jeff Bagwell covered the criteria I am using for analyzing HOF players.  The second and third posts covered Bert Blyleven and the middle infielder trio of Alan Trammell, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar.

The next player I’d have on our ballot is Edgar Martinez.

WAR Totals:  112.2 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 67.2 career WAR + 9 All-Star seasons (+45 – defined as 5.0-7.9 WAR)

Stats:  18 seasons,  3,530 Times on Base (2,247 hits, 1,283 BB), 1,219 Runs, 309 HR, 1,261 RBI, 49 SB, .312 AVG / .418 OBP / .515 SLG / 147 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  96 R /24 HR/99 RBI/4 SB

Edgar Martinez has a tougher road to a HOF nomination than most players given that he was primarily a DH, isn’t very close to the notable career totals (3,000+ hits, 500+ HRs), never played in a World Series (let alone won 1+ championships), and was not perceived at the time as one of the best players of his time (7 All-Stars but only 2 top-10 MVPs).

I’m going to start with the pro-Edgar arguments that I believe make the case for Edgar Martinez in the HOF and then address the perceived shortcomings noted above.

Reason Edgar Martinez Should Be In The Hall of Fame

1)  Career Excellence – Edgar’s 67.2 career WAR is 58th all-time amongst retired hitters (9 current players are higher).  Of the 57 above him, 49 are in the Hall of Fame, three are likely to be elected in (Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas), one is barred (Pete Rose), one is a turn of the century player (Bill Dahlen), and the other three are Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Larry Walker.  I covered the worthiness of Whitaker and Grich in a previous post.

HOF’ers below Edgar Martinez total include:  Duke Snider (67.5), Eddie Murray (66.7), Willie McCovey (65.1), Ernie Banks (64.4), Harmon Killebrew (61.1), Dave Winfield (59.7), Richie Ashburn (58), Willie Stargell (57.5), Billy Williams (57.2), Andre Dawson (57), Joe Medwick (55.8), and Jim Rice (41.5).

Edgar’s biggest contribution to winning was his phenomenal OBP.  His .418 career OBP is 22nd-time (with 3,000+ Plate Appearances) but only 7 of those ahead of him are post-WWII players are Ted Williams (.482), Barry  Bonds (.444), Albert Pujols (.426), Todd Helton (.424), Ferris Fain (.424)*, Mickey Mantle (.421), and Frank Thomas (.419).  He is one of only 5 post-WWII retired players to have a career line above the .300/.400/.500 (AVG/OBP/SLG) line – the others are Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Larry Walker, and Frank Thomas.

* Ferris Fain was a no-power 1B from 1945-1954 that won two batting titles (1951-1952) and had a .400+ OBP his first seven full years.  He hurt his knee at 33 and never really recovered.

He had 4 100+ BB seasons and only one 100+ K season.  He is one of only 11 post-WWII players to have a .500+ SLG and 8,000 Plate Appearances with more career BBs than Ks.  The last 4 players to retire before him to achieve this were Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, and Hank Aaron.

Edgar’s 147 career OPS+ (OBP+SLG adjusted for park and era) is tied for 39th of all time with Mike Schmidt, Willie Stargell, Willie McCovey, and Jim Thome.

2) Peak Excellence – Edgar Martinez never had that ‘no doubt about it’ MVP season.  His best MVP finish of 3rd (1995′s 121/29/113 with a rate line .356/.479/.628)  was actually fair given it was his best WAR season (7.7) and he did finish 3rd in the AL in WAR (although the two with higher WAR – John Valentin and Randy Johnson – finished 9th and 6th respectively as Mo Vaughn and Albert Belle finished in the top two.)

The amazing part of Edgar’s peak is how long he was a great player.  His peak was more like a plateau.  From 1990-2001, Edgar played 10 full seasons.  His WAR in those 10 were 7.7, 6.2, 6.2, 6.2, 5.9, 5.7, 5.5, 5.1, 5.0, and 4.6.  Only 19 post-WWII players managed 10 or more seasons with 4.6+ WAR.  The non-HOFers with 10+ other than Edgar Martinez are:  Barry Bonds (18), Alex Rodriguez (12), Jeff Bagwell (11), Albert Pujols (10), and Ken Griffey Jr. (10).

In terms of leaderboards, Edgar won 2 batting titles and 7 top 10s,  3 OBP titles and 11 top 10s, 6 top 10 SLG, 1 RBI title with 3 top 10s, 2 times led in doubles with 5 top 10s, and one top 10 in HRs.

Reservations For Voting Edgar Martinez To The Hall of Fame

If Edgar Martinez is elected into the Hall of Fame, he will have played far and away the highest percentage of games at DH for a member.  Martinez played 70% of his games at DH – the next 5 in order are Paul Molitor (44%), Jim Rice (26%), Reggie Jackson (23%), Eddie Murray (19%), and George Brett (19%).

Since the introduction of the DH, people have wondered what it would take for one to make the Hall of Fame.  This barely came up with Paul Molitor (44% of his games at DH) and Harold Baines (37 career WAR with zero MVP or All-Star quality years) didn’t really warrant the analysis of determining how much should one be penalized for playing DH.  This should also come up again when Frank Thomas is up for election as he played 57% of his games at DH.

Luckily, the WAR statistic penalizes DHs so I am going to review that and judge whether Edgar Martinez was appropriately penalized.

There are three primary values in WAR that pertain to a player’s position (note: for this one I’m going to shift back to Sean Smith’s terminology vs. Baseball-Reference and cut/paste his definitions):

- TZ (Total Zone) – TotalZone, a measure of defensive range based on analysis of retrosheet play by play data. For seaons before 1953, and the 1953 American League, this measure is based on a much cruder formula called JAARF (Just another adjusted range factor.) which estimates defensive ratings from assists, putouts and errors, as well as team hits allowed by lefthanded and righthanded pitchers.  (Rudy’s translation:  This is an estimate on the number of runs that a defensive player saved/cost a team compared to a replacement fielder)

- Position Adjustment – Based on how players perform at multiple positions. I have made separate position calculations by decade.  (Rudy’s Translation:  We know it’s tougher to play CF than LF, SS vs. 2B, 3B vs. 1B, etc., by watching baseball over the years.  Through analyzing the performance of those who have played multiple positions, you can credit/penalize players who play harder/easier positions.  Here is a great primer on positional adjustments by Graham at the Mariners’ blog Lookout Landing)

- Replacement Value –  The difference between a league average player and replacement level. This is normally 20 runs per season (650 PA), but varies slightly depending on the strength of the league. Currently, the American league is stronger than the National league, but 50 years ago the opposite was true.  (Rudy’s Translation:  We know from watching baseball that it is easier to replace certain positions than others.  Let’s say you are the 1990′s Texas Rangers and your two best players are Ivan Rodriguez and Juan Gonzalez.  While Juan Gone might be the better hitter, you can get much better hitting replacement OFs from the farm team or off waivers than you could a replacement catcher.  You would rather lose Juan Gone because he is easier to replace.  So if a catcher and LF provide the same offensive/defensive value, the catcher should be deemed more valuable since they are harder to replace.)

Edgar Martinez started his career as a third baseman.  His first two complete years (1990-1991) he played 3B for 247 of 251 games and had a +20 TZ.  For some perspective, that was tied for best in the AL with Gary Gaetti (and better than Robin Ventura and Wade Boggs).  He played another 103 games at 3B in 1992 and had a -5 TZ.   So let’s be safe and say he showed signs of being potentially an above-average fielder at 3B.  But then he tore his hamstring in 1993 and almost exclusively played DH from 1995 onwards.

From seeing Edgar run the bases all those years, it’s clear he couldn’t have played 3B effectively after the injury.  Third base is a demanding position – many third basemen have to switch off to first base simply because of age.  Examples include George Brett and Troy Glaus.  Then there are players that are moved from third to first base because of early injuries (Dick Allen), injury prevention  (Albert Pujols?, Mark Teixeira?) and/or because of poor 3B defense (Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, Miguel Cabrera).  We have also seen completely hobbled power hitters at 1B in the NL like Jack Clark and Mark McGwire.

So instead of judging Edgar Martinez solely as a DH, let’s assume he played 1B for most of those years (so his DH % was closer to the 19-30% of games like the other HOFers reference earlier).  How bad of an 1B would he have to be to overcome the penalties that WAR doles out for DHing?

Edgar was near exclusively a DH for 10 years (1995-2004).  Let’s say he only DH’d his last 3 years which would mean he DH’d for 17% of his games (in line with several other HOFers).  And we assume that 1) he wouldn’t have injured himself in the field as a 1B from 1995-2001 and 2) playing the field wouldn’t have hurt his hitting.

WAR penalizes Edgar Martinez with -101 runs in Position Adjustment for playing DH from 1995-2001.  Using a mix of Rafael Palmeiro and Carlos Delgado (who collectively played full-time 1B in AL during those years), I estimate he would’ve been given a -73 run adjustment for playing first base during those years with a similar Replacement Value.  So WAR, in effect, would give Martinez exactly the same value he had as DH if he played 1B and cost his team a total of 28 runs on defense (or an average of 4 runs a year).  It’s rare for a first basemen with such poor defensive skills to play seven straight years but it’s not unprecedented.  Carlos Delgado played full-time 1B from 1999-2005 and managed -35 runs below replacement.  If we use Delgado as a conservative proxy (a bit cruel since Martinez showed signs of defensive skills where Delgado defense was always indefensible), this would mean we would remove 1 run per year which amounts to 0.1 WAR/year (10 runs = 1 WAR).

Net-net, assuming Edgar Martinez could’ve stayed healthy playing below average 1B instead of DH, his WAR value be roughly the same.  I think this is an important consideration for valuing players.  Poor-fielding 1Bs like Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, or Miguel Cabrera might actually be more valuable as a DH assuming the next best hitter is an average-fielding 1B.

2) His career seemed short and his counting stats are so-so (in about 15 complete seasons, 2,247 hits, 309 HRs)

Career hits is a misleading statistic as it penalizes players who took a lot of walks.  Edgar Martinez is 43rd all-time (as of end of year 2010) in career walks.  While 44 of the top 50 in walks managed 2000+ hits, only 13 of those in the top 50 in walks managed 3,000 hits.   This includes Barry Bonds (2,935), Babe Ruth (2,873), Joe Morgan (2,517), Mickey Mantle (2,415), Mike Schmidt (2,234), and Harmon Killebrew (2,086).

Edgar’s 3,619 times on base (2,247 Hits, 1,283 Walks, 89 HBP) ranks 72nd among retired players.  Many of the Hall-of-Famers below Edgar Martinez are questionable HOF inclusions, served during wartime, or played tougher positions but some notable players below him include Andre Dawson (3,474), Ernie Banks (3,416), Willie Stargell (3,247), Jim Rice (3,186), Duke Snider (3,108), and Kirby Puckett (2,810).

His HR total is not very impressive for HOF standards – particularly given his time period.  Unlike similar high OBP peers like Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez was more of a doubles hitter.

So his counting stats make the decision harder.  It would require fantastic rate statistics (AVG/OBP/SLG) to counteract the totals which Edgar Martinez had.

3) How many future HOFers could those 1990′s Mariners have for a team that never even made the World Series?

It is amazing to think that the 1990′s Seattle Mariners had three sure-fire Hall of Famers in their relative primes (Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson), Edgar Martinez, as well as very good players in their prime including Jay Buhner and Tino Martinez yet did not manage one World Series visit.

Below is a batting vs pitching WAR comparison vs. the two other great teams of those years – the Yankees and the Indians.

Team	Year	Record	WAR batters	WAR pitchers	Team WAR
SEA	1995	79-66	25.3	14.0	39.3
SEA	1996	85-76	36.9	3.5	40.4
SEA	1997	90-72	33.8	7.5	41.3
SEA	1998	76-85	23.8	7.5	31.3
SEA	1999	79-83	15.3	15.0	30.3
NYY	1995	79-65	21.0	13.6	34.6
NYY	1996	92-70	14.7	25.7	40.4
NYY	1997	96-66	22.7	31.3	54.0
NYY	1998	114-48	42.8	21.0	63.8
NYY	1999	98-64	23.4	22.4	45.8
CLE	1995	100-44	25.6	24.2	49.8
CLE	1996	99-62	26.9	23.4	50.3
CLE	1997	86-75	25.7	10.0	35.7
CLE	1998	89-73	22.7	16.3	39.0
CLE	1999	97-65	38.0	9.1	47.1

The Mariners offense from 1995-1998 were superior to the Indians and Yankees who played in all four World Series during those years with the 1998 Yankees being an outlier.  It was the pitching that kept the Mariners back all those years.  Randy Johnson had two very strong years during that time (1995 with 7.8 WAR, 1997 with 7.7 WAR) but managed only 60 IP in 1996 and was mediocre in 1998 (9-10/4.33 ERA/1.288 WHIP) when the Mariners traded him late in the year to the Astros.  Jeff Fassero and Jamie Moyer had solid years in 1997 and 1998.  Mike Timlin was a solid arm in the bullpen but, otherwise, there was little quality depth otherwise throughout the four years.  The worst example of that is 1997 when Randy Johnson, Jeff Fassero, and Jamie Moyer were 15.8 WAR and the rest of the pitching staff accounted for -8.3 WAR!  By the time 1999 rolled around and the pitching staff got back to adequate (thanks to the spoils of the Randy Johnson trade – Freddy Garcia and John Halama), the offensive depth had deteriorated down to Griffey, A-Rod, and Edgar Martinez.  (This lack of offensive depth best exemplified by Brian L. Hunter to whom we awarded a Razzball Spotlight post thanks to his .280 OBP and 48 OPS+ from LF)

So Edgar Martinez shouldn’t be penalized for the fact that Seattle was never able to mount a credible pitching staff during their offense’s peak in 1996-1998.

Final Verdict

There are superficial reasons why one would not vote for Edgar Martinez (played DH, low counting stats) but his sustained excellence at hitting/getting on base make him worthy for the Hall of Fame.

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts

Edgar Martinez is of Puerto Rican heritage.  He was born in New York but, after his parents’ divorce, he wanted to be around less Puerto Ricans so he moved to Puerto Rico.

Unlike other baseball players, Edgar Martinez married early and was not tempted by the allures of baseball groupies.  When asked about it, Edgar replied, “I’m afraid if I play the field that I’ll injure my hamstring.”

The Mariners did not like to bat Jay Buhner in front of Edgar Martinez, fearing the hitter after Martinez would suck.  (Aw yeah, J. Edgar Hoover joke.  Add one to the Rudy Gamble file, G-Men!)

The 1995 Mariners are one of only 572 teams to have two Martinezes (Edgar and Tino) on their team.

This is the first in a series of posts reviewing players on the 2011 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot.  Here is some background on how I analyze players for the HOF:

Much like the Earth and many a good joke, the views on Hall of Fame worthiness have two poles.  The first pole is the traditional view which focuses on seasonal and career ‘baseball card’ stats like AVG/Hits/HR/RBI or Wins/ERA, factors in dominance based on MVP/Cy Young voting + reputation during one’s career, and the post-season success for that individual and their team(s).    The second pole is the sabermetric view which relies on more advanced statistics with the aim of crediting the best players based on objective criteria.

I am much, much closer to the sabermetric pole than the traditionalist pole.  My view on baseball (and life) is to question and adapt my views when presented with compelling information.  I’ve been convinced that OBP & Times on Base are superior to AVG and Hits and that the traditional view of baseball has underestimated the value of walks.  I can’t view HRs or even slugging percentage as an absolute reflection of power and look for advanced stats to adjust for era and park factors.  Runs and RBIs are clearly important – you need to score runs to win games – but it’s hard to balance these stats against lineup strength, era, park factors, etc.  The same goes for pitching:  I think ERA/WHIP needs to be adjusted per era/park factors/team defense, Wins are a questionable measure given their reliance on team strength, etc.

As advanced statistics have improved, I put less faith in MVPs/Cy Youngs/All-Star voting.  The writers (and fans for All-Star) voting for those awards over the years didn’t either have access to the advanced learnings that sabermetrics has provided and/or don’t believe it.  For instance, let’s look at the 1996 MVP voting.  Juan Gonzalez had a fantastic hitting year (.314/47/144 with a .368 OBP, below average running/defense and favorable park that led him to not even make the AL Top 10 in OPS+) but exactly how could that be considered more valuable than Ken Griffey Jr. (.303/49/140 with a .392 OBP, solid baserunning, and the most valuable defensive player in the league based on Defensive WAR) or Alex Rodriguez (.358/36/123 with a .414 OBP, positive baserunning and above-average SS defense)?  In fact, of the 21 players to get at least one AL MVP vote in 1996, Juan Gonzalez had the worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  In addition, there are also some years where a player wins the MVP/Cy Young by default because there really isn’t a player who warrants it and vice versa (see 1996 where Ken Griffey and Alex Rodriguez – as well as Chuck Knoblauch – were worthy MVP candidates).  Does that make their year any less MVP-worthy?

So here are the criteria/stats I’m using for my HOF analysis:

1) Career Excellence - I am measuring this by career WAR (Wins Above Replacement).  This statistic – which was developed by Sean Smith and is available for free on Baseball-Reference.com or Sean’s own BaseballProjection.com – calculates the value of a hitter’s offense/defense/running or a pitcher’s pitching vs. those of a replacement player (minor leaguer or waiver wire claim).  Many factors such as position, era, park, defense (for pitchers) are accounted for.  (Note:  there are slight differences in WAR calculations between Baseball-Reference and BaseballProjection.com – I use those from B-R unless otherwise noted.)

2) Peak Excellence – I think most traditional and sabermetric fans and voters agree that – everything equal – a player who had a dominant peak is more preferable to one who was just very good for a long period of time.  Rather than focus on awards, I’ve taken the B-R (and I assume Sean Smith) suggested breaks of 5.0+ WAR for an All-Star season and 8.0+ WAR for an MVP season.    For reference, between 1901 and 2010, there were 282 hitting seasons and 132 pitching seasons that surpassed 8.0.  That roughly 2.7 hitters and 1.2 pitchers per year which seems fair when you consider there are about 2x the hitters than pitchers who play enough to reach this total.

(Bit of trivia:  The year with the most 8.0+ WAR hitters is 2004 with 6:  Barry Bonds (12.4), Adrian ‘El Senator‘ Beltre (10.1), Albert Pujols (9.4), Scott Rolen (9.2), Jim Edmonds (8.4), and Ichiro (8.1).  The NL MVP vote went exactly in WAR order for the 5 NL’ers.  Vladamir Guerrero (7.4) beat Ichiro for AL MVP who finished 7th.   The year with the most pitchers 8.0+ was 1971 with 6:  Wilbur Wood (10.7), Fergie Jenkins (9.2), Tom Seaver (9.2), Vida Blue (8.8), Mickey Lolich (8.6), and Dave Roberts (8.5).  Vida Blue and Mickey Lolich finished above Wilbur Wood for AL Cy Young while Fergie Jenkins edged out Tom Seaver for NL.)

I’ve combined the above into one stat using the following formula:  Career WAR + 10 * MVP seasons (8.0+ WAR) + 5 * All-Star seasons (5.0-7.9 WAR).  I’ll call this ‘Peak-Adjusted WAR’ for the series of posts.  This is admittedly arbitrary but seems to do a fair job at rewarding those with high peaks vs. long careers.  Case in point:  Carlton Fisk has one more career WAR than Gary Carter (67.3 to 66.3) aided by playing close to 2 more seasons worth of games.  But Gary Carter had 8 seasons of All-Star value (most ever for a catcher amongst retired players as of 2005) while Carlton Fisk only had 4.  This adjustment puts Carter ahead of Fisk 106.3-87.3 (2nd and 3rd behind Johnny Bench).  Sandy Koufax has far less career WAR to Don Sutton (54.5 to 70.8) but his 3 MVP seasons (1963, 1965, 1966) and two All-Star seasons give him 40 extra points where Don Sutton’s 4 All-Star seasons give him 20.  Thus, Koufax scores higher 94.5 to 90.8.  (Click here for access to the spreadsheet on Google Docs).

In looking at the scores across all players, I’d say for me that a peak-adjusted WAR of 100 is a no-brainer selection, anything from 80-100 is in the consideration set (with more bias towards positions with less players who’ve reached that plateau, and anything under 80 isn’t a consideration except for relief pitchers or special cases (e.g., an untimely death, Negro-league players, a player lost peak time to serve in the war, etc.)

3) Hall of Fame Position Representativeness – While WAR takes position into account for single seasons, it cannot adjust for the fact that certain positions (notably Catcher and Middle Infield) are tougher to have long careers than other positions (notably corner OF/1B/DH).  My general POV is that if a player was in the top 10 at his position in the past 60 years (1945-2005), he warrants Hall of Fame consideration even if their stats look lower than average.

This brings me to the top player on my imaginary 2011 ballot – Jeff Bagwell.

WAR Totals:  139.9 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 79.9 career WAR + 3 MVP seasons (+30) and 6 All-Star seasons (+30)

Stats:  15 seasons, 2,314 hits, 1,517 Runs, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 202 SBs, .297 AVG / .408 OBP / .540 SLG / 149 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  114 R /34 HR/115 RBI/15 SB

Don’t let the 449 career HRs fool you.  Based on either career WAR or my Peak-Adjusted WAR, Jeff Bagwell was the best 1st baseman post-WWII (excluding Albert Pujols) and the 4th best ever behind Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols, and Jimmie Foxx.  Now just about everyone reading this lived through the Bagwell era (as it was known by no one outside of Houston and the Bagwell extended family).  It didn’t FEEL like he was the best 1B in the past 60 years, did it?

Here are several reasons why it might not have felt that way:

1) Bagwell played his first 9 seasons (23-31) in the hitter un-friendly Astrodome. He still put up great baseball card stats (AVG/HR/RBI) but the Astrodome maybe cost him a HR championship or two.  His OPS+ (OBP + SLG, adjusted by era and park) was top 10 in the NL for 8 of his 9 Astrodome years.  His career OPS+ is the 10th best among retired post-WWII players.  Ahead of him are (Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Mark McGwire, Stan Musial, Dick Allen, Frank Thomas, Willie Mays, and Frank Robinson).

2) He played in an era with a lot of great hitting 1Bs. Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, and Jason Giambi to name a few.

3) While his AVG was very good (career. 297), it was his ability to walk that led to his excellent .408 career OBP (14th best among post-WWII players).  As mentioned above, walking/OBP has traditionally been undervalued (and the nominations of Jim Rice and Andre Dawson confirm they are still undervalued).

4) Baserunning isn’t generally expected nor valued for 1st basemen. Bagwell is clearly the best baserunner amongst modern-day 1Bs (even Cecil Fielder!). His career baserunning (using B-R’s Rbaser) of 29 runs above average is more than double that of the next modern 1B (Albert Pujols – 14).  To give some perspective, Rafael Palmeiro is at -10 runs below replacement, Todd Helton at -11 runs, Mark McGwire at -19 runs, Frank Thomas at -26 runs, Jim Thome at -27 runs, and Carlos Delgado the worst at -30 runs.  The conversion is 10 runs per win so Bagwell’s running led an estimated 3-6 additional teams wins in his career vs. other similar slugging first basemen of his era.

5) Fielding isn’t traditionally valued very high for 1st basemen. While Bagwell falls short of the pantheon of fielding 1Bs (top modern-day 1Bs based on B-R’s Rfield (very close to TZ) – are Keith Hernandez, Albert Pujols, and John Olerud), he’s at about the 20th percentile of qualified 1Bs and that is including an AWFUL 2005 season where Bagwell’s arthritic shoulder led to him being tied for the worst defensive 1B season ever.  Take away the shoulder injury and he’d be closer to the 10th percentile.  Several of the slugging 1Bs of the era were below-average fielders including Jim Thome (-22 runs below average), Mark McGwire (-30 runs below average), Fred McGriff (-34 runs) Carlos Delgado (-43 runs), Frank Thomas (-64 runs), and Jason Giambi (-73 runs).

6) Houston is a great city to have an excellent and anonymous career. Ask Jimmy Wynn and Jose Cruz Sr.

So even though Bagwell had 3 MVP-quality seasons (1994, 1996, 1997) – which is one more than Jim Thome (1), Todd Helton (1), Frank Thomas (0), Rafael Palmeiro (0), Mark McGwire (0), and Carlos Delgado (0) combined – he doesn’t register quite the same as some of his peers.

Add all this up and Bagwell is a no-brainer selection that probably will not get in 1st ballot but will by his 2nd or 3rd ballot.

Fun (and potentially fictional) fact:

The infamous Red Sox-Astro trade of Jeff Bagwell for reliever Larry Anderson was influenced by Boston’s management’s desire for players with hard A’s in their name.  Studies at the time showed that opposing players would be distracted by the fans chanting these names.  Larry Anderson has twice the hard A’s as Jeff Bagwell.  If Bagwell’s name was Jack, he would’ve never been traded by the Sox.  This odd policy paid dividends when they drafted Nomar Garciaparra sight unseen.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

Six first basemen are enshrined today, a position that is arguably the strongest in the history of fantasy baseball.

First base is the power position of fantasy baseball.  Each spot around the diamond has had their fair share of power hitting players, but year in and year out, fantasy owners rely on first basemen more than any other for their main source of home runs. In fact, since the fantasy era, first basemen have the led fantasy leagues in the long ball each year except 1982 and 1983, when Mike Schmidt skewed the numbers enough to vault third basemen into first overall.

A few weeks ago, I ran a chart in the shortstop induction article, showing the number of times each position finished, on average, first overall.  I found a flaw however, by counting all the players at a position, and not just the ones who would have been “fantasy worthy”, I overestimated the impact of certain positions.  Re-running the data it is clear there is no argument as to which positions have been the best since 1980 – it’s either first base or outfield.    The chart below depicts the average score for “fantasy worthy” players who were eligible at these two positions:

In the first half of the 1980s both positions were relatively equal, with one season, 1981, easily going to the outfielders.  In the period of 1986 through 1991 however, the first base crew easily outpaced their counterparts in four of the five years.  Through 1995 the two positions were either equal or first base was winning handily.  This gives them a 10 year stretch were first basemen were the class of fantasy baseball.  Since 1995 the positions have been relatively equivalent, with 5 years going to the outfield, 4 to the first basemen, and three with finishes close enough to call a tie.

Finally, below is the average score of ‘fantasy worthy’ players by position, broken down by decade:

Just further proof that first base gets it done.  On to the inductees.

Albert Pujols
In his current trend, Pujols will be the only player of the fantasy era to never go below the 10 FBHOF point threshold until the downturn of his career.  Think about this for a minute.  At the end of his 2007 season, Pujols was ranked 4th among batters in overall FBHOF Score and 3rd in Peak score.  The players ahead of him are Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Rickey Henderson in terms of overall score, and just Rodriguez and Bonds in peak score.  The three of these are inner circle Hall of Famers and none of them has accomplished what Pujols has done so far, in fantasy baseball terms anyway.

Since his rookie season, Pujols has put up FBHOF worthy statistics each year.  It took Bonds five years to reach 10 FBHOF points and both Henderson and Rodriguez reached the mark in their second eligible years.  While most of this is academic in the long run (does it really matter that Rodriguez appeared in just 65 games his first two years?), it is still an amazing accomplishment.

Pujols’ best year was in 2003 when he batted .359 with 137 R, 43 HR, 124 RBI, and 5 SB.  This scored him 17.2 FBHOF Points, 6th best all time for a batter.  “King Albert” has been eligible at First Base, Third Base, and in the Outfield; and is the only player to finish as the best overall at more than two positions.

Jeff Bagwell
In 1994 Bagwell was the best player on the planet.  In 110 games (strike season) he hit 39 HR, 116 RBI, 104 R, and 15 SB.  Prorated over 162 games the numbers look like something Lou Gehrig might have put up – .368 AVG, 153 R, 57 HR, 170 RBI, 22 SB.  His 17.6 FBHOF points is 5th all time.

He also had 3 more seasons of 40+ HR, 125+ RBI, and a .300+ batting average.  Between 1999 and 2000 he scored almost 300 runs.  He was fast too – stealing at least 30 bases in 1997 & 1999.

Eddie Murray
I almost scratched my scoring system when I saw Murray come out as the 3rd best fantasy first basemen.  After all, he was a ‘compiler’ right?  How could a compiler score so high in a system that rewards peak 5 year value over everything else?

While he was a compiler, he was extraordinarily good at it.  We aren’t talking about a compiler who is routinely 20th best in the league, we’re talking about one was routinely Top 5 at their position.

Murray was fantasy worthy in 17 seasons which brings his overall score up from a solid 21st to a very good 16th.  But, he also hit a ton between 1980 and 1985, routinely finishing among the leaders each year in all fantasy categories except stolen bases.  In his peak years of 1980 and 1983-1985 Murray finished in the Top 10 fifteen times:  twice in AVG, four times in Runs, and five times in both Home runs and RBI.

Finally, let’s take a look at the number of times in their 5-year peak that each of our first basemen finished 1st or 2nd at their position:

5 – Pujols
5 – Bagwell
5 – Murray
4 – Helton
4 – Mattingly
4 – Thomas

Murray also did it twice more, besting all but Pujols who has seven right along with him.

Todd Helton
Don Mattingly
Alright, I have to be palms up about something.  I idolized Don Mattingly growing up, still do in fact.  That said, no funky business was needed to elect him to this Hall of Fame, as he is most certainly deserving.

As with all of the 1980’s players, we have to put Mattingly’s accomplishments in context of the lower offensive era.  One way to do that is to stack him up against an eerily similar player of today’s era – Todd Helton.

The scores are almost identical – Mattingly has a higher peak (he’s one of just 8 batters to have multiple 15+ point seasons), but Helton’s 3rd through 5th best seasons were slightly better thus evening out the scores.  The 7 year view is close as well, and after that, Mattingly suffered a rather quick fall to irrelevancy.

Getting back to era’s, remembering how close the scoring was, take a gander at their actual 5 year peak stats:

Helton    – .349 AVG, 125 R, 37 HR, 123 RBI, 4 SB
Mattingly – .330 AVG,  97 R, 28 HR, 119 RBI, 1 SB

Times sure have changed if these two are on the same footing.

Frank Thomas
Thomas is another case that really challenges the FBHOF scoring system.  Thomas is regarded, within some circles anyway, as the best hitter of his time.  Here is a player that hit .340 or better three times; reached 125 RBI’s four times; and had 7 seasons of 35 or more home runs.  He was simply a monster at the plate.

If this is true, how can he be rated below both Mattingly and Helton?  Two reasons – peak vs. longevity, and the late 90’s.  Whether you like it or not, Thomas simply did not have the peak that either Mattingly or Helton enjoyed.  He was markedly better over a longer period of time, but Mattingly’s two best years were better than any of Thomas’, and Helton had three better years.  If you look at an 8 year stretch instead of a peak-5 year though, Thomas easily bests the two:  94.6 Pts for Thomas vs. 86.0 for Helton and 83.8 for Mattingly.

Fantasy baseball has a “what have you done for me lately” mentality.  Even looking at the best 5 years of player is stretching the limits of how far in advance a fantasy owner thinks.  Even in the most robust of keeper leagues, rarely would a player remain on a single team for 3 years, let alone 5, and this is reflected in how the FBHOF scores.

The late 1990’s also hurt Thomas.  Looking at his statistics subjectively, one might come to the conclusion that 2000 was his best year:  .328 AVG, 115 R, 43 HR, and 143 RBI.  After all, those figures are all career highs with the exception of his batting average, which was great nonetheless.  But in 2000, this wasn’t even good enough to be the best first basemen, let alone the best overall batter.  He finished 3rd among first basemen behind Helton and Bagwell and 14th overall.  His batting average was 19th in the league, Runs were 15th, HR’s were 7th, and RBI 4th.  Of course, his 1 stolen base was also quite low, even for a first basemen.  It was 25th among his peers, and 283rd overall.

As a result of all the above, 2000 isn’t even considered part of his 5 year peak score.  Which brings us back to the first point – he was great for so many years, but never was ‘the best’.  In fact, he and Murray are the only two First Base inductees to never finish a season #1 overall among batters.

This has been a long post, and I’ll spare you some time by just mentioning a few of the near misses:

- Cecil Cooper was closest with 63 FBHOF Points.  Really an underrated player.
- Andres Galarraga had great years in 1988, 1996, and 1997 but was just ‘very good’ the rest of the time.
- Rafael Palmeiro, aka., Eddie Murray Lite.
- Which brings us to Mark McGwire.  Before complaining he’s not in the FBHOF please remember the following:  He hit .300 once.  Scored 100 runs just thrice.  And of course was possibly the slowest player in the game, amassing less than 15 stolen bases throughout his career.  Those facts aren’t kind to fantasy batters.

ESPN’s top “analyst,” Eric Karabell, lit a flame nugget under me when he decided to tout Frank Thomas as a big 2008 sleeper. That’s right, the soon-to-be 40 year-old, Toronto DH who limps around the bases. Seems to me that Karabell has been sleeping for the last ten years. You need to be an ESPN Outsider to read the entire Frank Thomas is a “big 2008 sleeper” hooey, but I’ll recycle the relevant rubbish here:

The Big Hurt isn’t young, has a limited ceiling and certainly isn’t the same player who put up Hall of Fame stats for more than a decade, but he’s hardly a bad option at this point. In fact, in one of the January drafts I had, Thomas was my 22nd-round pick, the second to last player I chose. I kept waiting and waiting and nobody wanted the guy. I was stacked on offense, and intended to use my utility spot for steals, but how could I turn down a shot at Thomas?

Utility spot filled with a diminishing-skills 40-year-old? This is mind numbing. Was Dave Roberts already off the board? How about Mike Schmidt? Greg Luzinski?

Karabaloney doesn’t say who was still on the board this late in the draft, but you absolutely have to take an upside guy (LaRoche, Kotchman, Votto, etc.) or round out your pitching with a quality middleman who might get you saves (Rodney, Broxton, Betancourt, etc.). If you take Frank Thomas, you’re just not trying hard enough or paying attention. The Big Limp is not hitting as many fly balls and his average is (updated) around .260 since 2001. Sure, he takes walks, but he should be lifted every time he gets on the basepaths. Watching him run is as painful as watching Claire Danes act. At age forty, if his career continues to decline (which there’s no reason to think it won’t), he’s lucky to go 22-80-.260 with a paltry 60 runs. As Rich Dad might say, that’s a liability not an asset. You’re welcome.