Fantasy Baseball Advice

With the the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball, we’ve finished our recap of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is our final look back.  This is still a look back.  It is not how I’d rank them for 2010 aka next year.  As with the other rankings, the final rankings come from ESPN’s Player Rater.  I did this so I could objectively critique MY preseason rankings to THEIR end season ones.  Their rankings for closers weigh wins and Ks very heavily, but whatevs.  At least it’s unbiased.  There’s a theme in the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball we need to address.  There’s more unranked players in this post than any of the previous ones.  With 8 of 20 closers being unranked.  This is why you never pay for closers.  They’re unpredictable.  The ones that you think will do good disappoint (K-Rod) or flat-out suck (Lidge).  Then there’s the ones that just come out of nowhere.  It all comes back to SAGNOF!  Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Joe Nathan – Has an unprecedented streak of 24 consecutive months being a $12 salad.  As soon as he gives me his address, I’ll send him the green, leafy ribbon.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  2-3/1.90/1.00/75, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  2-2/2.10/.93/89, 47 saves

2. Jonathan Broxton – Didn’t lead the league in saves, wasn’t that dominant with ERA, but 114 Ks for a reliever will get them ranked pretty high.  Throw in 7 vulture wins and you have the number two ranked closer.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.15/80, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  7-2/2.61/.96/114, 36 saves

3. Mariano Rivera – Some year he will not live up to his standard.  When that year will be is anyone’s guess. Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  3-3/1.76/.90/72, 44 saves

4. Andrew Bailey – If you take the best middle reliever year and throw in 26 saves, you have Bailey.  Definitely one of those guys that you were probably waiting for the bottom to fall out at any moment and it never happened.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-3/1.84/.88/91, 26 saves

5. Heath Bell – I owned Bell in quite a few leagues since people seem to shun guys who had never closed before even though pitchers have shown over and over again closer experience usually means little.  Had his best save and worst ERA month in September with 9 saves and a 5.14 ERA.  Preseason Rank #16 2009 Projections:  4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves, Final Numbers:  6-4/2.71/1.12/79, 42 saves

6. Brian Wilson – Because I’m on the West Coast, I always find myself watching the tail end of Giants games.  What I (think) I notice is Wilson is rarely a guy that seems like a sure thing.  I say (think) because it might just be the games I watch.  So this sent me looking at all of the games he closed in 2009.  What I found is my (thought) was correct.  He only recorded 11 three up, three down saves out of 38.  To give you some perspective, Franklin had 14.  Though Wilson was flat-out dominate in the 2nd half (1.64 ERA).  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves, Final Numbers:  5-6/2.74/1.20/83, 38 saves

7. Trevor Hoffman – Old is as old continues to do.  Next year, he’ll be entering to the Hells Belles Comedy Cabaret album. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-2/2.10/.93/89, 47 saves

8. David Aardsma – Bailey’s probably the epitome of SAGNOF, so what’s right under epitome?  Example of?  Embodiment?  “Eh, same thing?”  That was Aardsma.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  3-6/2.52/1.16/80, 38 saves

9. Huston Street – In the preseason, I said, “Yes, he’s injury prone. Yes, he lost the A’s closer job last year.  If he’s the Rox closer, none of that should matter to you.  As I’ve repeatedly repeated… If someone’s getting saves, you should be drafting him.”  Yup.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  1-4/3.75/1.10/17 saves, Final Numbers:  4-1/3.06/.91/70, 35 saves

10. Jonathan Papelbon – Here’s a place their Player Rater fails big time.  Papelbon is this low because he recorded only one vulture win.  It’s nice, but you can’t really rely on closers to get vulture wins.  The rest of his numbers are fine for a closer.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  6-2/1.75/.95/80, 45 saves, Final Numbers:  1-1/1.85/1.15/76, 38 saves

11. Ryan Franklin – I’m pretty sure La Russa and Duncan could make Brendan Ryan a serviceable closer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  4-3/1.92/1.20/44, 38 saves

12. Francisco Cordero – By taking the last letters of his first name and the first letters of his last name, he has one of my favorite nicknames, CoCo.  Who’s some other players this would work with?  Ben Zobrist with EnZo…  Zobrist sounds Jewish and he gets an Italian nickname?  What’s he, a pizza bagel?  Doesn’t work.  How about Ryan Howard?  AnHo?  Eh..  Wait, I got one!  Miguel Montero.  Now we just need Daron Sutton to say something like, “The Count’s in Elmo’s favor…”  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  2-6/2.16/1.32/58, 39 saves

13. Rafael Soriano – See what I said regarding Bailey.  Go ahead, scan your eyes up a little.  There ya go!  Soriano did basically the same thing.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  1-6/2.97/1.06/102, 27 saves

14. Joakim Soria – Soria dealt with some injury issues this year and still put together a good season.  Soria blamed the WBC; I blamed Selig.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  3-4/2.00/.95/60, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/2.21/1.13/69, 30 saves

15. Brian Fuentes – Knock on the door.  *opening door*  A red flag stands there.  What’s up, red flag? Fuentes had more saves than Ks.  Red Flag out.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  1-5/3.93/1.40/46, 48 saves

16. Francisco Rodriguez – Wasn’t a great season, but you were foolish if you thought he was going to save another 62 games.  Actually, wasn’t as bad when you consider he gave up 5 runs in his next to last appearance.  Right before that, he had a 3.09 ERA.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.30/80, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  3-6/3.71/1.31/73, 35 saves

17. Jose Valverde – Hopefully you were able to grab LaTroy Hawkins when he filled in for Valverde, so your JoTroy Valkins got you 36 saves.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  4-2/2.33/1.13/56, 25 saves

18. George Sherrill – From Donkeycorn to a middle man but still retained his value, especially for MR. B’s, as Sherrill only gave up 2 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings in LaLa Land.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  1-1/1.70/1.12/61, 21 saves

19. Michael Wuertz – Wuertz comes in as our first and last true middle reliever to make the top 20 closer list.  If you owned, say, James Shields (11-12/4.14/1.32/167) and Wuertz the entire season, your combined numbers would’ve been 17-13/3.74/1.23/269; that looks like vintage Nolan Ryan.  In other words, you could’ve done *pinkie to mouth* Wuertz.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-1/2.63/.95/102, 4 saves

20. J.P. Howell – Whatever Beane is feeding his bullpen up in Oakland, Tampa could use some of it as Howell was a whole lot better before he started closing.  Thurston and Lovey expected more.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-5/2.84/1.20/79, 17 saves

I’d like to dedicate this opening paragraph to one of our 2008 faves Mark ‘Mini-Donkey’ Reynolds as he reached 200 Ks and is poised to shatter the previous record of 205 Ks set by the very same Mark Reynolds last year.  (Luckily, he’s also shattering his record for Runs, HRs, RBIs, and SBs too.)  We are tempted to call up MLB to ask how much it would cost to sponsor a Razzball Windmill of the Year Award.  It’s got to be hard to fail that much and still have the overall success that Reynolds is having this year.  It’s like that guy in the bar who comes onto 10 girls out of his league and then scores with the 11th.  You have to be impressed with his triumph but the 10 failures are, in their own way, more impressive.  Anyway, kudos to the Grand Diamondhack and onto the rest of what’s going on…

Derek Lowe - D-Lowe forfeited a favorable start tonight when he left after two innings (and 3 ER) with a blister on his ring finger.  Luckily the blister isn’t on his little finger or his thumb or he’d really be in dire straits.

Gavin Floyd – He saw D-Lowe’s 2 inning start and saw him one inning better before leaving with a bad hip.  A 4th inning might’ve qualified him for a Win…..if you used the Joba Rules.  Decent chance he’s toast for the season so don’t waver to waiver.

Hideki Matsui - Hit his 25th HR of the season as part of a Yankee win.  I would’ve thought Matsui would’ve needed to move back to one of those glorified Little League stadiums they have in Japan to ever clear 25 HR again.  Luckily the Yanks built one instead.

Ian Stewart - Returned after missing most of the last week with a bad back to hit a 2-run HR.  He’s now 7-for-30 in September with 5 HRs and 14 Ks.  He’d be a 50 HR threat if they ever triple the size of the ball or the bat barrel.

Jonny Gomes - Hit his 20th HR of the season in 254 ABs.  Incidentally, that’s 2 more than Jay Bruce, 18 more than Chris Dickerson, and 19 more than Willy Taveras.   Hitters moving from the AL to the NL must feel like that kid whose birthday fell a day after the Little League cutoff and got to play an extra year.

Francisco Rodriguez & Brian Fuentes – The former and current Angel closers continue to bedevil fantasy owners with blown saves last night – adding to their already 5.00+ ERAs in the second half.  Like a bunch of Latin Lidges.  If they are still available in your league, lock in their backups – Kevin Jepsen for the Angels and…um…uh…never mind on the Mets.

Franklin Morales – Closing the circle of blown saves, the interim closer of Fuentes’ former employer gave up 3 ER in the final inning of a 4-0 game.  Kazaam!

Roy Oswalt – Being shut down for the season due to lingering back issues.  Half price sale on Astros.com for “Roy & Wandy then starve our chances of winning like Ghandi” T-Shirts!

Braden Looper - Improved his record to 13-6 for the Brew Crew despite a near 5.00 ERA.  Manny Parra is 10-10 with a 6.42 ERA.  Parra is obviously just about 1 1/2 earned runs per game from being a dominant pitcher.

Bartolo Colon – Cleansed from the ChiSox roster today.  If I was Vince McMahon, I’d sign him and Sidney Ponson as a tag team christened as the Piñatas.

Daisuke Matsuzaka returned from his bout of Terriblitis to pitch effectively vs. the Angels. 6 IP, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. He almost looked as good as when he won the MVP of the World Baseball Classic.   Ah, yes, Selig, it’s a brilliant idea.  We’re a global game now.  Next time I’m in Italy, my paisans and I will talk all about baseball over our Chianti.  I’m not a huge fan of Dice-K (the walks), but he was solid in his rehab stint and he does get the Orioles next.  That’s not a terrible match up.  I wouldn’t own him, but we can still get along if you do.  One love!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jake Peavy – The on again, on again, then off again, then briefly on, then briefly off, then on again comeback is on again for Saturday vs. the Royals.

Victor Martinez – Here’s an SAT question for you.  Martinez left the club for “personal reasons.”  Grey knows what it means when his girlfriend takes off a day from work for “personal reasons.” So this means that Martinez left the club because of what?

Michael Young – He kept saying he would return on Friday.  Then he returned yesterday.  Then he was lifted for a pinch hitter after one at-bat.  See what happens to liars.  He now says he really will be back this Friday.  Mmm-hmm.

Andy Pettitte – Will miss a start with a sore shoulder.  I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the Yankee team has a “sore shoulder” on and off for the next few weeks as they gear up for the playoffs.

Carlos Marmol – Piniella calls Marmol the closer for 2010.  With the amount of walks Marmol gives up, I don’t think Piniella should cancel the Milk of Magnesia bulk order just yet.

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks and his 10th Win.  He has a 2.65 ERA on the year with nearly a K/IP.  He far exceeded my expectations for him or, really, any rookie pitcher.

Adam LaRoche – 4-for-4, 2 HRs yesterday.  Maybe if LaRoche starts playing in Venezuela in the winter, then by April he’ll think it’s the All-Star Break.

Matt Wieters – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer yesterday.  For everyone’s sake, hope he doesn’t have a great final three weeks, so people partially forget about him next year.

Geovany Soto – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and a homer.  Speaking of catchers who drove you mad this year, Soto’s been hot in September, hitting over .350.

Yovani Gallardo - 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 12 baserunners.  YoGa, why do you stress me?  I would’ve totally accepted him getting scratched before this game rather than this start.

Robinson Tejada – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  He was highlighted in yesterday’s post about borderline starters.  You scroll down.  Also, it’s Ta-HEY-duh not Tay-HA-duh, but both are from Baní, Dominican Republic.  You think in Baní there’s a lot of people saying, “Is it hey or ha?”

Miguel Olivo – Hit his 20th homer yesterday.  He gets so incredibly hot when he’s actually hitting the ball and not striking out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Olivo hits 5 more homers in the next two weeks.

Magglio Ordonez – Went 0-for-3 with a strikeout, but the 3 at-bats will mean he’ll make $18 million next year.  Just in case you wanted a reason to run into traffic.

Travis Snider – 2 HRs yesterday.  See about 4 1/2 inches above under Wieters for why we don’t want Snider to get too hot.  Unless, I guess, if you own him.  But that’s just selfish.  Think about us!

Nick Swisher – 6 for his last 13 with a homer as he hits over .300 in September.

Cliff Lee – The Adverb threw a shutout with 9 Ks vs. the Nationals.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  I don’t own him, so, honestly, I don’t pay too much attention to how poor Ortiz is hitting on a day-to-day basis.  But, with that said, he’s batting .233.  When he bats, the opposing team should move the left side of the infield into the dugout.

Roy Oswalt – 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 Ks vs. the Reds.  Charlie Hough wearing a Wolverine Mechanical Claw from Toys R Us could strike out 3 Reds.

Kaz Matsui – HR yesterday and has 4 steals in the last week.  I’m guessing here, but I betcha he’s going to be in Friday’s Buy/Sell.

Heath Bell – 1 IP, 2 ER and the Bell has tolled every time in his last three appearances, giving up 7 runs.  Meanwhile, Grey notices Luke Gregerson has 15 consecutive scoreless innings dating back a month.

Barry Zito – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  He gets the Diamondbacks next.  Not a terrible start, but he’ll be facing Haren.

Chipper Jones – Guess what?  Glass Chipper’s out for a few more days, might be longer.  Punt!

Carlos Beltran – 5-for-20, 1 homer, 2 RBIs, 0 steals and he’s sat out three games since his return.  Cust kayin’.

Francisco Rodriguez – Left the club to be with his wife as she gave birth.  This would’ve been so much easier if he would’ve just knocked up Aaron Hill’s wife.

It’s good to be past the trading deadline.  The closers that kept their job feel woobie-safe.  Pull down the Murphy bed, Qualls is here to stay! You might be right, random italicized voice.  Don’t forget, closers still find a way to lose their job.  In the past week, Downs is down, Jenks looks jenky, Frank-Frank is a baby sneeze away from another stint on the DL, I fully expect Lindstrom to get back in the closer picture within two weeks and Nathan seems about as safe as they come and yet, he’s still just a closer.  Look at the ground with your forward facing eyes and put some drops in the eyes in the back of your head.  In other words, don’t settle in.  Sleep is the cousin of death.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (+2) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (-1) (Pedro Feliciano, Bobby Parnell)
4. Mariano Rivera (+2) (Phil Hughes)
5. Jonathan Broxton (-4) (Ramon Troncoso, George Sherrill)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Heath Bell (-1) (Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams)
7. Joakim Soria (+14) (Juan Cruz, Jamey Wright)
8. Francisco Cordero (David Weathers, Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset)
9. Jose Valverde (+11) (Chris Sampson, Alberto Arias, LaTroy Hawkins)
10. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes)
11. Huston Street (+2) (Rafael Betancourt, Matt Daley)
12. David Aardsma (Sean White, Mark Lowe)
13. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
14. Trevor Hoffman (+9) (Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter)
15. Kevin Gregg (Carlos Marmol)
16. Fernando Rodney (Bobby Seay, Brandon Lyon)
17. Rafael Soriano (+2) (Mike Gonzalez, Peter Moylan)
18. J.P. Howell (+4) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson)
19. Brian Fuentes (-10) (Jason Bulger, Darren Oliver, Justin Speier)
20. Chad Qualls (+8) (Jon Rauch)
21. Brad Lidge (-3) (Ryan Madson)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Capps (+4) (Jesse Chavez)
23. Kerry Wood (+2) (Chris Perez, Joe Smith)
24. Mike MacDougal (+5) (Sean Burnett, Jason Bergmann)
25. Andrew Bailey (-12) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
26. Frank Francisco/C.J. Wilson (-2) (Darren O’Day)
27. Bobby Jenks (-10) (Matt Thornton, Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink)
28. Jason Frasor (-2) (Scott Downs, Brandon League)
29. Leo Nunez (Matt Lindstrom, Kiko Calero, Dan Meyer)
30. Jim Johnson (-11) (Danys Baez, Chris Ray, Billy Ray Valentine)

In this month’s closer look, let’s discuss trading for closers.  Now before people think my battleship has sunk, I’m not saying to pay top dollar for closers.  But with us heading into July, it should be pretty clear how badly you need saves.  Luckily, saves are one of the categories (steals are another) where you can make up ground quickfast.  If you’re ten or more saves behind a pack of people and can gain three or more points with an additional closer or two, then you should be thinking about trading for a couple.   I’d look to trade one player from your strengths for two closers.  Think Shields for two donkey-corns.  Or a donkey-corn and a brain freeze.  It really depends on your strengths and weaknesses.  And since saves do come in bunches, if you’re finding yourself picking up plenty of ground in saves, then in August, you can trade away a closer or two for a different piece.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Broxton (Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Cory Wade)
2. Francisco Rodriguez (Pedro Feliciano, Bobby Parnell)
3. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares)
4. Jonathan Papelbon (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

5. Heath Bell (Edward Mujica)
6. Mariano Rivera (+1) (Brian Bruney, Alfredo Aceves)
7. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
8. Francisco Cordero (David Weathers, Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset)
9. Brian Fuentes (+2) (Darren Oliver, Justin Speier)
10. Ryan Franklin (+2) (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes)
11. Andrew Bailey (+16) (Brad Ziegler, Michael Wuertz, Santiago Casilla)
12. David Aardsma (+12) (Sean White, Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
13. Brian Wilson (+2) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
14. Huston Street (+6) (Joel Peralta, Manny Corpas)
15. Kevin Gregg (-1) (Carlos Marmol)
16. Fernando Rodney (+2) (Joel Zumaya, Bobby Seay)
17. George Sherrill (+5) (Jim Johnson, Danys Baez, Chris Ray)
18. Brad Lidge (-8) (Ryan Madson)
19. Mike Gonzalez (-2) (Rafael Soriano)
20. Jose Valverde (+8) (LaTroy Hawkins, Chris Sampson)
21. Joakim Soria (+4) (Juan Cruz, Jamey Wright, Kyle Farnsworth)
22. J.P. Howell (+8) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

23. Trevor Hoffman (-1) (Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter)
24. Frank Francisco (-14) (C.J. Wilson)
25. Kerry Wood (-8) (Chris Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
26. Matt Capps (-2) (John Grabow, Jesse Chavez, Sean Burnett)
27. Jason Frasor (-8) (Scott Downs, B.J. Ryan)
28. Chad Qualls (-15) (Tony Pena, Clay Zavada, Jon Rauch)
29. Mike MacDougal (Joe Beimel, Julian Tavarez)
30. Leo Nunez (-4) (Dan Meyer, Matt Lindstrom, Kiko Calero, Waco My Airplane)