Fantasy Baseball Advice

The duality of man:

It’s all Peaches and Herb when you can get the best out of both worlds. Well, fantasy baseball wise that’s either “Martin Prado” good or “Jerry Hairston” awkward. For fantasy pitching, a guy doesn’t necessarily become more draftable based on dual position, but I’m here to “learn” you something about spot starting from the RP spot. I once heard that relief pitching is an art form. It looks easy, but hey, not everyone can paint. Hell, I color way outside the lines.  Here is a list of strapping young lads that can contribute from the depths of your roster by chucking the ball and having both SP/RP eligibility:

Robinson Tejada – ( 29 relief appearances/ 6 sp)
No joke — I heard his dad’s name is actually Miguel Cano. Here is a guy that intrigues me to no end. High K rate, low HR’s allowed (4 in 73 innings). KC may stretch him out to be a number 5. Beware of a high walk rate and a big jump in innings but he can contribute. Proj: 8 wins 4.05 era 125 K’s in 120 innings

Brett Myers – ( 8rp/10 sp)
Huge risk/reward with his change of battery mates…wink. Will only be 30 by year’s end, playing for a multi-yr deal, definite rotation spot. To me, he has all the opportunity sitting in front of him. Decent in-season fill or late round flyer. Proj: 10 wins 4.2 era 145 K’s

Kenshin Kawakami – ( 7 rp/ 25 sp)
Was cruising along and then Hudson went all Moscow and came back from the DL. Should enter the spring with a rotation spot. Otherwise, it’s to the pen to form the dynamic Asian dance team, Ken-N-Tak. Not a huge K potential and low ERA promise. You could do worse for a 5th starter. Proj: 10 wins 3.89 era 125 K’s

Justin Masterson – (26rp/16sp)
Former Sox spec goes to the head of the class — Too bad it’s in remedial English. Huge K potential (think a K/inning), reminds me a lot of a RH Jonathan Sanchez. Legitimate stuff — has potential to be a future number 3. Innings shouldn’t be a worry. Will have every chance to fail for a 90 loss team. End of draft sleeper. Grey’s Projections at top 80 starters for 2010 post.

Clayton Richard – ( 12rp/ 26sp)
He is another top spec that goes into the fire of a losing organization. Great potential to pitch for a budding rotation. Not a huge K guy and he will walk his share. Plays in an ERA friendly environment and has been getting a pretty good ride in the pre-draft hype machine. I‘d buy that for a dollar. Great match up guy for home starts. Proj: 7 wins 3.90 era 100 K’s

Aaron Laffey – ( 6rp/13sp)
Personally, I love this guy. Same b-day as me and same last name as the navy ship my grandfather was on in WWII. But anywho — to me, he is the “Clayton Richard” of the AL and has a chance to shine… but for a bad team. Not a huge peripheral help guy, walks a ton, no K’s. Could be a sneaky source of wins for Cleveland. Just needs to stop walking the ballpark. Proj: 9 wins 4.30 era 110 k’s

Derek Holland – (12rp/21sp)
Texas has a potent offense: this, we know. Here is a guy to do the opposite of Richard: start on the road. Has a great arsenal of pitches, got worn down by year’s end. ERA should drop from above 6 (or I would hope). Decent K/9 and needs to work on his third pitch. If the team is away, Holland should play. Proj: 9 wins 4.35 era 125 K’s

Brian Duensing – ( 15rp/9sp)
Great spot guy late last year. If he misses a rotation spot, he joins (in my opinion) the best bullpen in baseball. Not a huge K threat, but misses bats. A long relief candidate who can snipe a few victories. Expect great peripherals, low ERA. Proj: 9 wins 3.75 era 90 K’s

Brandon Morrow – ( 16rp/10sp)
Holy potential! I have been waiting for him for 2 years to do something. He now gets a chance in a very young rotation in Toronto, albeit in the toughest division in baseball. Health and stamina are an issue (diabetic). Has huge K and low ERA potential. A must grab for last round fodder or for “cause I told you so” bragging rights. Grey’s Projections at top 80 starters for 2010 post.

Francisco Liriano – (5rp/24sp)
This guy was awful a year removed from TJ surgery and I think he actually pitched with Tommy John’s arm. Another year may do him good. He will struggle with command and is spotty when runners are on base. Consistent arm angle a must. I’m avoiding him at all costs unless I can get him late — like on the waiver wire after the draft. Buyer beware but great K potential from the once most hyped SP since Tim Leary. Projections found at Grey’s Liriano Sleeper post.

Others to think about that qualify: Jamie Moyer(5rp/25sp), Bobby Parnell(60rp/8sp), Tom Gorzellany(15rp/7sp)

We all know Chone Figgins loves stealing 2nd base, but he might be starting early this year. After a brisk calisthenic session, Don Wakamatsu decided to try Figgy at 2nd base with Jose Lopez shifting to 3rd base.  The Mariners haven’t had this amount of speed at 2nd base since they faced David Eckstein and Ichiro moved up 50 steps.  Suddenly, Figgins’s Sparky Anklebiter power and top tier speed looks much better.  It would catapult him to the top 7 of the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010.  I’d rank him right after Cano and in a promising tier.  Going for steals at 2nd base wouldn’t hurt nearly as much at 3rd base.  But he’s not there yet and, frankly, I don’t think the move to 2nd is going to happen, barring an injury to Jose Lopez.  When you have players comfortable at their position, you don’t mess with it for s’s and g’s.  But since we’re going down this road, it helps Jose Lopez’s value too.  Not as much though. Or maybe Lopez will replace Kotchko at 1st.  Ah, rumors, surrounding me every day.  Anyway, here’s what else is happening in fantasy baseball:

Russell Branyan – Landed with the Indians.  Yippee.  He’s covered in the top 20 1st basemen post that is actually the top 24 1st basemen post.  Now tough actin’ Manny Acta is saying Branyan’s going to play 1st base, LaPorta is going to play left field and Michael Brantley… Well, Brantley’s shizz out of luck.  Brantley’s value obviously plummets if he starts the season in the minors.  It’s still early so things can happen.  Doesn’t look good right now.  My real question is how did Manny Acta get another job managing a Major League team?  Did he really impress that many people in Washington?  A career .385% managerial winning percentage sparked interest?  For some reason this made me think of my grocery shopping.  Expectations are super low when I go grocery shopping.  I buy frozen fried chicken and toilet paper.  That covers everything.  Literally.  But no one’s hiring me to do their grocery shopping.  This is Manny Acta.  He’s a manager that buys easy-to-prepare fried chicken and toilet paper.

Eric Gagne – The Canadian ex-Dodger admitted to using HGH.  He should’ve blamed it on socialized medicine.

Felipe Lopez – Looks headed to the Cards.  Does nothing to his value, which is already mentioned in the top 20 2nd basemen.

Brandon Lyon/Matt Lindstrom – The Astros know they’re going to win 70 games, they’re just not sure who’s going to close them.  My guess is Lyon will get the majority of the saves.  Ed Wade said, “I know there have been a lot of successful teams over the last dozen years or so who have used more than one closer to get to the finish line.” Look at Ed checking his facts or so!  As of right now, I’d draft both of them.  If you draft Lyon, you should try and get Lindstrom too.  In fantasy baseball and S&M, they call this handcuffing.  If you play with people like me, your leaguemates will immediately draft Lindstrom right after you draft Lyon.  Miserable cork-soakers!

Cameron Maybin – He’s excited to hit 2nd this year.  That makes two of us, friend.

Francisco Liriano – Francisco Liriano reported he’s healthy and eager to take the mound.  Only problem is Liriano reported that in January of 2008.  I only point this out as a reminder to keep health reports, positive and negative, in perspective during Spring Training.  Every year the Royals are a contender in February, Boof Bonser’s lost weight, Milton Bradley’s turned over a new leaf, Manny’s going to retire and Jesus Colome reminds a reporter it’s Hay-Zeus.

A guy craps the bed and I get excited.  Hmm… Maybe I should work at a convalescent home.  Last year, Francisco Liriano had a line of 5-13/5.80/1.55/122 in 136 2/3 innings.  That makes Jason Marquis shudder.  Did Dr. Freeze operate on the wrong arm? To paraphrase Dirt Nasty, what a shame, never thought Liriano would turn out this way… Reverse alas, that was last year. It’s a brand new day, Sting.  According to St. Paul Pioneer Press, Liriano was heating it up in the Winter Leagues as he prepped for the 2010 season.  The Pioneer Press also had a two page editorial on the opening of Duluth’s third Pizza Hut, so let’s take hometown fervor with a grain of salt.  But still Francisco Liriano is a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper, so what say you, 2nd paragraph?

Last year, Liriano was not only coming back from Tommy John surgery but he was also battling health setbacks every step of the way.  His walks went up from a pre-op 2.38 BB/9 to 4.28 last year, but pitchers have known to have initial control problems when returning from TJ surgery. (That’s not Tijuana surgery, which was beautifully captured in that Felicity Huffman movie that always manages to come on TV right when you, your father and grandfather sit down with a few beers.  Grey, see what else is on. All right, Pop… Here’s The World According to Garp… Hey, it’s the guy from Third Rock. *awkward two hour silence*  That was good, but don’t tell your Mom we watched it.)  Pre-op his fastball regularly sat around 94 MPH.  Last year, Liriano was hitting 91, which was up from the 90 MPH he threw in 2008 when he first returned.  Now in the Dominican he’s being clocked at 92-94.  That’s a good trend.  In Liriano’s final two starts of the year in the DR, he threw 10 scoreless with only two walks and 10 Ks.  Finally, his sleeperosity is as much about Liriano as it’s about the schmohawks Kevin Jepsen, Barry Zito, Joe Saunders… Otherwise known as guys being drafted around the same time as Liriano.  (BTW, I just wasted 15 minutes of my life that I’ll never get back trying to figure out why people are drafting Jepsen.  Rodney will step in if Fuentes proves incapable.)  As I write this… and this… and this… and this… and (well, you get the point), Liriano isn’t even guaranteed a starting spot, but I think he gets the starting spot and posts a low 4 ERA with good Ks, making him a solid 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.  Think 2010 projections of 12-9/4.05/1.34/155.

We have now posted the 2009 Point Shares for 12-team MLB leagues.

For those unfamiliar, Point Shares are our home-grown methodology (inspired by Bill James’ Win Shares) for rating fantasy players. They represent the estimated difference in an average fantasy team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position. For example, Albert Pujols’ 9.19 Point Shares mean he was worth 9.19 points more to the average team than an average 1B (closest player to ‘average 1B’ was Jorge Cantu). Point Shares are estimated for each statistical category – Pujols’ points are broken out as: 2.2 Runs, 2.1 HRs, 2.3 RBI, 1.0 SB, and 1.6 AVG.

2009 – Top 20 Point Shares

Our top 20 ended up with an even split of pitchers (9 SP/1 RP) and hitters with Zack Greinke taking top honors. You’ll see some similarities between the ESPN Player Rater and our Point Shares but we’ll point out two notable differences:

1) ESPN loves speedy players (is that why they employed Eric Young for more than a second?) – it generously credits SBs and doesn’t penalize weak HR/RBI. Where Crawford and Ellsbury are 5th and 6th overall and almost even with Braun in ESPN they are 17th and 21st in ours and over 2.5 points or $10 less valuable than Braun. I like SBs as much as the next fantasy player but Braun’s 113/32/114/20/.320 is going to help the average team a lot more than Crawford’s 96/15/68/60/.305. Take ESPN ranking of guys with high SBs with a grain of salt.

2) ESPN Puts Less Stock on Position Scarcity – Joe Mauer is #6 in our ranking vs. #17 in ESPN. Do you realize who the 4th most valuable catcher was in fantasy? Kurt Suzuki! Mauer’s stats for an OF would’ve qualified him for #17. As a Catcher, his stats were an easy top 10 value.

2009 – Top 20 Draft Values

In what should amount to no surprise to anyone who followed baseball in 2009, our Point Shares have Mark Reynolds as the #1 best value (using ESPN Average Draft Position). He wasn’t even drafted in many leagues yet ended up as the 15th most valuable fantasy player in the majors (according to Point Shares). 13 of the 20 best values are pitchers (9 SP, 4 RP) lending credence to the claim that pitchers are more unpredictable and more bargains may be available later in the draft.

Some Nostradamus awards go out to:
1) Sean Smith – the man behind CHONE. Let’s just say I was dubious when Javier Vazquez came up #2 using CHONE’s 2009. He ends up #7. Impressive.

2) Matthew Berry – It might’ve been an awkward interview we had with him last year but we asked for the best undervalued OF and he nailed it with Shin Soo-Choo.

3) Razzball. In my NL Blogger draft, I managed to snag 4 of the 11 NLers in the top 20 in value: Razzball 2009 crush / #1 value Mark Reynolds, #15 Huston Street, #18 Ryan Franklin, #20 Randy Wolf. The relievers were complete and utter luck but still…

2009 – Bottom 20 Draft Values

Interestingly, only 5 of the top 20 worst values are pitchers. (Note: If a hitter/pitcher missed the majority of the year, we capped their negative Point Shares as the lowest drafted slot – #260). This is a mix of tough breaks (Beltran, Reyes, Webb, Manny) with a few guys that we warned were being overvalued in drafts (Chris Davis, Francisco Liriano, Josh Hamilton). I don’t feel like giving out some anti-Nostradamus (Ignoramus?) awards but I will admit to drafting Geovany Soto AND Russ Martin in my NL Blogger Draft.

Last note: 2010 Point Shares based on CHONE data will be posted in the next week!

Welcome to the year end Razzball Awards!  Unlike the ESPYs, you won’t have to wear a tux or listen to Derek Jeter try to be funny.  Speaking of Viagra — Vlad’s got one good leg and he’s not wearing a shoe on it. Nope, for these awards, all you need to do is read.  How novel!  Anyway, here’s The 2009 Razzball Year End Awards:

Fantasy AL Most Valuable Player – There’s two hitters from the AL in the top ten on the ESPN Player Rater.  Crawford at 4 and Ellsbury at 6.  The next AL hitter is Derek Jeter.  Can we punt the AL hitters award this year?  Wait, I know!  Let’s give it to a pitcher!  Zack Greinke, you’re the Razzball AL Fantasy MVP, how does it feel?  “If I don’t find out who the mother is on How I Met Your Mother by next spring training, I’m going to lose my shizz.”  Thanks for coming, Zack!  You’re the belle of the Razzballies!

Fantasy NL Most Valuable Player – If a no-brainer is my specialty, this one’s easy.  Albert Pujols.

Fantasy AL Cy Young – If Kansas City were a major market, we’d be getting an ESPN movie of the week this winter about Zack Greinke starring Macaulay Culkin.

Fantasy NL Cy Young – Tim Lincecum, but this is pretty close with Javier Vazquez, Dan Haren, Wainwright and Carpenter.  Crazy that those last four guys could’ve been had in any league.  That would’ve made for a nice team if you had all four.  Well, Lincecum gets the nod because he’s 145 lbs.  Those things matter for the Razzballies.

Fantasy AL Least Valuable Player – Grady Sizemore really wanted this award.  He even sat out September in his bid to suck.  But Josh Hamilton started sucking in April.  That’s a tough act to follow, mostly because of the stench.

Fantasy NL Least Valuable Player – The winner is Jose Reyes.  Unfortunately, he couldn’t make it to the awards ceremony because he’s getting in “game shape.”

Special Lifetime Achievement Award That Is Only A Reflection Of This Season And Not Of A Lifetime – Mark Reynolds, because he needed his own award.  Thank you, Mini Donkey.  You made everyone else look like Mini Jackasses.

Fantasy Hitter You Most Likely Dropped and Picked Up A Dozen Times – And the Razzballie goes to Clint Barmes.  He’s starting, but not hitting, I’m dropping him.  He’s starting and hitting, I’m picking him up.  He’s hitting but not playing, I’m dropping him.  He’s hitting and playing… Do I drop him or pick him up?   Forget it, I’m dropping him.  Wait, he’s not even on my team.  Ugh!

Player You Had Forever and Most Wanted to Drop – Felipe Lopez.  Every time I came close to cutting the Fe-Lopezian tubes, he went 1-for-3 with a Run.  If I see one more 1-for-3 with a Run, I’m going to vomit.

Player On The Top Of Your Waivers That You Just Couldn’t Bring Yourself to Pick Up – Michael Cuddyer.  Cuddyer’s boring!  I’ll stick with the rotating Bowden Fluffer turnstile of Delmon Young, Milledge, Dukes and Cameron Maybin.

Pitcher You Streamed So Much You Ended Up Owning Him – Bronson Arroyo.  Now don’t get any pine tar on your award!   A close runner-up was Joe Blanton.

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From, But Thankfully It Never Did – Matt Cain.  If regressing to the norm is a 3.50 2nd half ERA, I’ll take it any day of the week and twice on Muesday.

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From and It Ended Up Kicking You in the Groin – Johnny Cueto.  Regressing doesn’t have to mean a flippin’ 8 ERA!

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From and When It Did You Were Okay With It – Ben Zobrist.  Sure, his 2nd half wasn’t as good as his 1st half, but you weren’t actually embarrassed to own Ben Zobrist.  Tell me you saw that coming in February and I have a column for you to write called, “I’m a lying sack of shizz.”

Player You Traded Away That You Most Regretted – Grey seems like a good guy, but there’s no way Mark Reynolds is going to keep this up.

Player You Traded For That You Most Regretted – I just traded a poor-April Verlander and Mark Reynolds for David Wright!  I’m so money and you snitches are so green!

Best Roofie Pitcher – Three way tie with J.A. Happ, Randy Wells and Brett Anderson.

Best Jockular Sphincteritis – Adrian Beltre with his cracked nuts.

Top Cuddle Boy – Ryan Madson.  Our closer is terrible, yet we can’t reliably turn to our set-up man.

Top SAGNOF – Michael Bourn/Andrew Bailey (tie)

Player Who “Pulled A Kotchman“ – Carlos Beltran.  How long can someone nurse an injury that’s “not that serious?”

Remember That Feeling You Had When You Walked In On Your Parents Having Sex, This Pitcher Gave You That Feeling Every Fifth Day – Francisco Liriano