Fantasy Baseball Advice

Hamilton Satisfies Bedside Wish For Conjoined Twins

May 09, 2012 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 315 Comments →

“Just because we share some organs doesn’t mean you can’t hit 2 two-run homers for each of us!”  Josh Hamilton had a night that makes you feel like you’re seven years old again.  You remember it.  When the birds chirped, it made you smile.  When your dad carried you on his shoulders, you were on top of the world.  When you peed the bed, no one tried to commit you to rehab.  People pinched your cheeks without you having to pay some stranger on Craigslist $75.  You’d throw a pebble into the lake without worrying if you hit someone in the head and blinded them if your insurance would cover it.  A time of joy.  Wonder.  No Splenda.  That’s what Josh Hamilton did for us last night.  And he also gave his stupid fantasy owners 4 friggin’ homers, going 5-for-5 with 4 runs and 8 RBIs.  Why don’t I have him on every team?!  I would not try and sell him high because if he stays healthy (it doesn’t have to be that remote of a chance, you cynical bastard), you have an MVP.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adrian Beltre – 2-for-5 with a homer.  Pfft, wake me when you hit three more!

Scott Downs – Angels say Downs will be ready to return by Wednesday.  The Sciosciapath still considers him their closer.  Downs goes Frieri!  Downs goes Frieri!  Yeah, worked better when he was on the Blue Jays with Frasor.

Chris Sale – Last week, Ventura anointed Sale the closer.  So…he brought him into the 8th inning yesterday.  Plausible explanation:  He wanted his best reliever in a close game.  Also, plausible:  Sale is not the closer.  Also, plausible:  After all of those Nolan Ryan noogies, Robin Ventura doesn’t know how many innings there are in a game.  Addison Reed got the save with another perfect inning.  He could easily be the closer…Or Santiago…Or Sale.  It’s basically a closerf**k.

Dale Thayer – Literally, within five minutes of me dropping Cashner and picking up Thayer, he was blowing the game.  You still don’t believe The Closepocalypse is real?  He got lucky on a foul ball by Scutaro that was nearly a homer and another ball hit a baserunner.  I’m holding Thayer for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone else closed the next Padres game.

Josh Thole – Mets placed him on the 7-day DL with a concussion.  Hey, I’m no doctor, but from what I’ve gleamed from five minutes of noodling around WebMD and watching how other players have reacted to concussions.  Are we sure the DL for concussions should be less time than the norm?

Jon Rauch – Got the save yesterday.  One small step for Rauch and one giant step for men over six-ten.  Francisco had worked the last three days, so this save for Rauch just shows the pecking order behind Francisco and some flashy neck tattoos.  “Yo, I’m gonna peacock my neck!”  That’s Rauch after reading up on pick-up artistry.

Dan Haren – 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the Twins?  This doubled the amount of runs the Twins scored in all previous games combined.  I don’t want to keep pointing out the same thing, but Rudy said in the preseason this would be the year Haren falls apart.  So far, Haren’s ERA is 4.19.

Scott Diamond – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  In the box score, it said S. Diamond and I thought Selma Diamond pitched 17 years after her death.  She had sass, but not that much, I guess.

Ryan Doumit – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer.  I believe I said in the preseason that Doumit would be more valuable than Mauer this year.  And that’s me kinda paraphrasing me!

Albert Pujols – 0-for-4 to lower his average to .190.  This isn’t just bad for Albert; this stinks for all Pujolses.

David Robertson – Got the save yesterday as if there was any doubt.  I’d put his over/under for saves at 32.  Over/under for Ks at 110.  And over/under for times A-Rod checks out his package at 17.

Raul Ibanez – 2-for-3 with his 4th and 5th homers.  Seems like the Yankees have been benching him against lefties, which will hurt his overall numbers.  And being 40-something.  That’ll hurt those numbers too.

Andy Pettitte – Will start vs. the M’s on Sunday.  He’s been anything but outstanding during his tune up.  Bernie Williams, “Did someone say they want me to tune up the guitar?”  No, Bernie.  Against the M’s is a solid matchup, but unless things are really hard for you I wouldn’t Pettitte, even though it usually works the opposite way.

Randall Delgado – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  After his last start (8 IP, 2 ER), I said I’d watch him this start.  Well, I didn’t because I was doing the podcast that is coming later today with anutter special guest.  But the box score is telling me, you should pick up Delgado in all leagues deeper than 14 team mixed and possibly even shallower, depending on your starter shituation.  He’s only 22 years old and he could have a 9+ K-rate.  Yes, I basically love all Braves young pitchers, but they’re an easy group to love.

Ryan Dempster – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  He obviously should be owned everywhere.  His ERA won’t stay at 1.02, but he does get solid Ks and can have a mid-3 ERA.

Omar Infante – Hit his 6th homer yesterday.  Dah!  Just when Stanton finally passed him.

Anibal Sanchez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks to lower his ERA to 2.01.  Are we waiting until October to thank me for pushing everyone into drafting this guy?

Aneury Rodriguez – 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 6 Ks.  His minor league numbers are pretty blehtastic and if you pick him up he may give you an aneurysm.

Will Middlebrooks – Left yesterday’s game with hamstring tightness.  As of right now, Middlebrooks looks like he might miss a day or two.  This comes just hours after the Red Sox announced they were considering using Middlebrooks in the outfield.  They’re also considering just using Youkilis as a ticket taker at Gate E.

Daniel Bard – 7 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 1 K.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I’m kinda surprised people still own him.

Yoenis Cespedes – Was a late scratch because of his wrist.  Sounds itchy!

Carlos Beltran – 2-for-4, 6 RBIs and two homers, or more homers in one game than Pujols has all year, and nearly more RBIs.  Beltran is The Great Zombino!

Ian Kennedy – 7 IP, 6 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Seriously, don’t mess with the 1927 Cardinals.

Carlos Marmol – Dale Sveum said Marmol may not get the job back.  But he has a 12+ walk rate, doesn’t that count for something?!  I could see dropping Marmol in most leagues.  He was dropped in my RCL and an NL-Only league and no one’s going near him.  I would grab Dolis or Russell, in that order.  (Or reverse order if you’re dyslexic.)

Miguel Tejada – The Orioles signed him.  It was part of a deal Dan Duquette made with the devil:  The Orioles can be in first place at the 1/6th point of the season, but then you must make transactions that make you look silly.

Yovani Gallardo – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  As I’ve been saying to people, Gallardo had a 6.23 ERA last April and you still drafted him this year as your top starter.  We’re in May now and he just threw a solid game vs. a tough hitting team.  By August, you will have forgotten he was miserable in April, and then by next April you’ll be frustrated again when he’s wretched.

Ryan Zimmerman – He returned from the DL to go 1-for-4 with a run.  Right back at, huh, Ryan?

Henry Rodriguez – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  For a guy you got off of waivers, he’s still doing okay.  Don’t pull the rip cord on him yet.

A.J. Burnett – 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 10 Ks, which comes on the heels of a 2 2/3 IP, 12 ER outing.  You know what he’s doing, right?  Here, “Ooh, I’m gonna pick up Burnett.”  BAM, awful outing!  “Eff that in the eff hole, I’m dropping his ass.”  BOOM, good outing!  He’s totally messing with you.

Andrew McCutchen – 1-for-3 with his 1st homer.  The Dread Pirate finally makes his nickname about his hair again.

Francisco Cordero – 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Move your small children and closers away from the windows!  The Closepocalypse is coming through!  Blue Jays might go to Jason Frasor for the next save chance, but, let’s just say, I didn’t run to the wire to pick him up.  Darren Oliver is another option, but, yeah, didn’t pick him up either.

Ryan Vogelsong – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 baserunners, 1 K as Vogelsong plays that sweet doctor’s office music I talked about last week.  Won’t excite you for good or bad, which is sometimes what you need.

Jarrod Parker – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks, ERA is at 1.80.  I’m being serious when I say this, but in any leagues of 12 team mixed or shallower, there’s no reason to have a team ERA over 3.50.

Josh Reddick – 1-for-3 with his 6th homer.  Think this is the first time I’ve mentioned him, or if you’re feeling punchy, it’s Reddick’s bow.  Hard for me to get fully behind A’s hitters, but he now has 4 homers in the last ten games.

J.J. Hardy – 2-for-4 with his 7th homer to raise his average to .244.  Meanwhile, Nick Markakis also homered, going 3-for-5 to raise his average to .246.  Member when Markakis was really good?  Makes you nostalgikis.

Alex Avila – Will miss at least two games with a sore patella.  My pharmacist’s name is Patella.  I don’t think they’re related.

Casey Blake – Retired yesterday.  In remembrance of Casey Blake, let’s not forget the time he painted a table to look like a soccer ball and Manny kicked it and missed a week with a sore toe.

Closer Look

May 01, 2012 By: Grey Category: Closers 405 Comments →

Well, not much has changed for closers since last month when we did a run down of all of them.  Kimbrel got a save, Axford got a save, and everyone else sucks.  Holly Robinson Peete closers are a mess!  I don’t think there’s ever been so many Brain Freezes before.  I almost feel like adding an extra category below the Brain Freezes called, “The Legend of Gloom.”  Wha’ happened?  Did someone poison the bullpen water?  Has Mariano Rivera made it so when he retires there won’t be any more closers?  There will only be starters and “Those Other Guys.”  To recap this month in closing quickly:  Valverde has been less than stellar, Putz and Street just don’t close games, Motte hasn’t been good, Brian Wilson became Casilla who Bochy pulled after one batter during one game, Joel Hanrahananananan gave fantasy owners the question, “Who’s Juan Cruz?”, Sergio Santos may start throwing at some point in the next few weeks, the Red Sox gave the job to someone who has an over 10 ERA, Frank-Frank hasn’t had a blank-blank inning in forever, Kyle Farnsworth left stage right and Rodney, who couldn’t get saves last year, entered stage “I can’t believe Rodney’s closing games,” Guerra’s been about as bad as expected, Walden blew one save and lost the job, What the H. Santiago?, What the H. Bell?, Grant Balfour might get traded, Jim Johnson gave fantasy owners the question, “Juan Cruz or Pedro Strop?  Wait, who?”, the closers on terrible teams have looked good so they’ll probably be traded or just not save games, and Brad Lidge is afraid of heights and the mound is above the field so he went to the DL which is on sea level.  Got all of that?  Yeah, I’m not sure I did either.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Huston Street (+3) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
6. Jim Johnson (+15) (Pedro Strop, Matt Lindstrom)
7. Joel Hanrahan (+4) (Juan Cruz, Jason Grilli)
8. J.J. Putz (-2) (David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw)
9. Jason Motte (-1) (Fernando Salas, Mitchell Boggs)
10. Jose Valverde (-6) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
11. Rafael Betancourt (+7) (Rex Brothers)
12. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen)
13. Fernando Rodney (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
14. Grant Balfour (+6) (Brian Fuentes, Ryan Cook)
15.
Brett Myers (+8) (David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
16. Joe Nathan (+6) (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
17. Kenley Jansen/Javy Guerra (+2) (Matt Guerrier)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

18. Sean Marshall (+3) (Aroldis Chapman, Jose Arredondo)
19.
Santiago Casilla (-10) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
20. Chris Perez
(+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
21.
Matt Capps (+6) (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
22.
Jonathan Broxton (+6) (Aaron Crow)
23. Henry Rodriguez (+6) (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
24. Frank Francisco (-8) (Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Ramon Ramirez)
25. Alfredo Aceves (-13) (Franklin Morales, Daniel Bard)
26. Carlos Marmol (-11) (Rafael Dolis, Kerry Wood)
27. Heath Bell (-19) (Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica)
28. Scott Downs (-11) (Jordan Walden, LaTroy Hawkins)
29. Matt Thornton/Hector Santiago
(-1) (Addison Reed, Jesse Crain)
30. Francisco Cordero (-15) (Casey Janssen, Luis Perez, Sergio Santos, Lloyd Moseby)

Buy Buy Buy, It’s Still Albert!

April 27, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball 748 Comments →

Can you get him for cheaper than he’s worth?  Is panic mode setting in for his owner?  Is he walking around muttering Effjols?  When you look into the eyes of your opponent who owns Albert Pujols, what do you see?  Do you see someone who is hiding tears, pretending they just came out of Subway and the godforsaken onion smell that you need to walk on the other side of the street to avoid has caused them to cry?  Or do you see someone steeled in their resolve?  If it’s the former and former is the first one, you pounce like a feral cat that you’re allergic to.  A feral, I-used-to-be-tame-but-now-I’m-gonna-scratch-your-eyes-out-and-put-them-on-a-kebab-and-serve-them-with-tabouli cat!  There’s no way Pujols just ups and leaves Fantasy Worthiness Land, unless the Angels accidentally signed Alburt Pujols, Albert’s evil, mustachioed brother who the Pujols family disowned 30 years ago and has been plotting his revenge ever since.  (Albert) Pujols has 30 homers, 100 RBIs, 100 runs, .300 average for breakfast and then says he has room for dessert.  Who has dessert with breakfast?!  Albert Pujols does.  You don’t trade that away for pennies on the dollar, but you do prey on the weak and buy that.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Tony Campana – Campana is so steals-crazy he’s like the jittery, smoking guy who asks you where the bathroom is in a bad part of town and you instinctively hold your backpocket to make sure he doesn’t rob your wallet.  That’s Tony Campana.

Luke Scott – The “Luke Scott has cooled off!” and “No, he hasn’t!” camps have moved further apart than Israel and Palestine.  Right now, I’m in the “No, he hasn’t!” camp, but if the U.S. sends in a healthy Nolan Reimold, I may be swayed to flip sides.

Gerardo Parra – Almost hate promoting Parra because it means no Krispie.  Member that fine brother who left his face in the Chase Field wall like Han Solo in carbon?  Miss you, Krispie!  Parra is a decent, not great, five category guy.

Brennan Boesch – For a while there, Boesch looked like cold soup, which is seriously nasty.  Has anyone ever had cold soup that’s tasted good?  I feel like you need to be an old Russian woman to like it.  Anyway, Boesch is in a great spot in the lineup and now hitting.

Stephen Drew – Wondering who the next guy is that you stash on your DL and then drop him once you have to activate him?  Here ya go!

Alcides Escobar – Here’s another guy I’ve be on for about two years and finally it’s looking like it might make a modicum of sense.  He has nice speed and he’s actually hitting.  Like peas and carrots, those two.

Bryan LaHair – Sure, you kinda want to call him B. Bryan LaHair, and don’t believe in love at first sight, but I believe in love at first.  Can I be with LaHair just one night?  Nah, but I could wear him outside like a suit made of cheddarwurst.  Did that rhyme?  I’m not sure it matters.

Francisco Cordero – Santos isn’t returning for at least a month with shoulder issues.  My best guess is Cordero saves more games than Santos this year.  Actually, that’s not my best guess, but my most realistic guess.  My best guess would be Lichtenstein.  But that’s my best guess for every question.  Why don’t they let me on Jeopardy?

Santiago Casilla – Not sure why he’s still owned in less than 50% of leagues (usually my cutoff), but he is.  Wilson’s out for the year; Casilla will get saves.  Don’t make me hack your fantasy account and add him!

Matt Thornton – Look up chilly in the dictionary and you find Santiago.  Pun point!  Could Reed be next?  Could be… Well, could be a few guys, but my money’s on Thornton.

Ross Detwiler – Prior to the 2007 draft, he was considered the 2nd best lefty behind only Price.  Shizz got derailed, or Detwilered.  At one point, he had a 9+ K-rate and solid control.  He might be a really late-bloomer.  I’d prefer that than a guy that has never been anything, but had one great game *cough* Humber *cough*.

Tommy Milone -  His last start was like someone playing Scramble on their iPhone.  Amazing!  Incredible!  Genius!  Wanna look behind the curtain at how I put together these Buy/Sells?  Come with me, attractive-to-your-mother friend!  I usually look at the most added and dropped players in ESPN, but I saw Milone wasn’t there, so I figured he was owned in so many leagues that he wasn’t applicable.  But then I got thinking — hey, sometimes thinking happens.  So I Googled Milone’s name to see how much he’s owned.  He’s owned in 5% of leagues.  (For reference point, Ryan Madson is owned in 12% of leagues; yes, the Ryan Madson that isn’t playing for 12 months.)  So it wasn’t that Milone was owned, it was that he wasn’t being added.  He has a 0.85 WHIP in 27 innings.  If you have a middle reliever for ratio help, the best middle reliever may not have a 0.85 WHIP through 27 innings, and it would take until June to get that many innings.  You might be saying to yourself, “Well, a lot of good this info does me now after he’s already thrown those innings.”  A) Before his first start on April 6th, I said to Buy him.  B) Going forward, I still like him for ratio help.  C) Seriously, what more do you need?  You’re bleeding me dry of fantasy baseball ‘pertness!

Jason Hammel – As mentioned the other day, he gets the Bronx jeers in his next start, but you should own him.

Trevor Bauer – He’s on his way.  Eventually.  How do I know?  I read it on Twitter along with something Ashton Kutcher’s assistant wrote anonymously.  If you have room on your team, move the mattress you saturated in cat urine to hide the weed smell and stash Bauer.

Jarrod Parker – Parker’s no poseur you indie, black-rimmed glasses kid, but if you grab him, because of his jersey, you can tell your friends you’re going green.  Even pick him up using your iPhone while driving your Prius and not paying attention to the road so you run over a pedestrian.

SELL

Ike Davis – How about those fences coming in, huh?  Good ol’ Metco!  You know when I’ll be excited by Mets hitters?  When they move the fences behind home plate.  I don’t mean the fences that are behind there already.  I mean, moving the outfield fences to the other side of home.  Bunt homers!  That’s what I’m looking for.  Davis’s own manager sold him down the river when a lefty came out of the bullpen, pinch hitting for him.  In shallower leagues, make like Tina and drop Ike.  In deeper ones, I’d probably shove him to my bench with Adam Dunn or whatever schmohawk you’re fatally attached to.

Mark Reynolds – I was trying to hold out hope for Mini Donkey but he looks like he’s headed for a Big Donkey circa 2011 season.  A slump for a guy that strikes out nine out of five times to the plate is death.  What’s that smell in here?  “Grey’s cleaning out some mold that was forming in my fridge!  I’ll be up in a second to clip your toenails!”  That’s you talking to your Mom.

Gaby Sanchez – “My Mom’s busting my chops and Yo Gaby Gaby was in the last Sell column!  Get to the good ones!”  Okay, moving on.

Derek Jeter – You know who’s smiling right now?  Minka.  Let the haters hate, right, Minka?  I hear ya, girl.  A’la Clubber Lang, “Let me know if you want a real, mustachioed man!”  I have nothing against Jeter.  Maybe he’s going all Zombino and eating the hearts of pitchers all year.  Though I seriously doubt that.  Do you remember how low he was going in drafts this year?  Do you remember why?  Because he’s been The Sexiest Man Alive That Can’t Hit 12 Homers Or Steal 20 Bases.  Is he hot garbage?  Did you just dump a fresh off a hot plate Rooty Tooty Fresh and Fruity into the trash?  No?  Then he’s not hot garbage.  He should hit around .300 and get around 10-ish homers and steals.  Yippee!  Whooooooo cares?  I’ll take Altuve and see Jeter on the other side of I still don’t care.  His name value is so much more valuable than actual value.  I wouldn’t trade him for a five DVD set of Step By Step’s third season, but I’d explore options.

Bottom of the Ninth: Introducing the BS Meter

April 26, 2012 By: Albert Lang Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball, Closers 85 Comments →

Before going through the closer upheaval rigmarole, I thought it important to set some context on blown saves. From 2009-2011 (three seasons), of pitchers with at least 10 saves, 11 relievers blew 16 or more saves. Only three of those pitchers (Matt Capps, Carlos Marmol and Jim Johnson) are still closers. Leo Nunez and Brian Wilson aren’t closing for, mostly, non-baseball-related reasons. While the other half (Kevin Gregg, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez, Chad Qualls, Brad Lidge and Kerry Wood) deservedly do not have full time closing duties. However, for these pitchers to lose their Rolaids relief roles, they had to blow, on average, 5 – 7 saves a season. That’s a lot when you think about it. And even when some of these gentlemen blew that many saves, about half were still given the ball with the game on the line.

Expanding the pool, 26 pitchers recorded at least 10 saves from 2009-2011 and blew 10 – 14 opportunities. Of the 26, roughly 15 (Bell, Papelbon, League, Soria, Hanrahan, Madson, Rivera, Francisco, Betancourt, Street, Perez, Farnsworth, Feliz, Putz and Walden) are/would be full time closers today. Of the remaining 11, two are current closers (Broxton and Rodney) and the rest have largely been middle relievers or flamed out (Ryan Franklin and Bobby Jenks). Consequently, it seems that blowing 3 – 5 saves in a season isn’t at all detrimental (in recent history at least) to maintaining a hold on the closer position.

This is by no means scientific (neither is the usage of bullpens) as many factors contribute to relief upheaval. I do think it puts in perspective how often a closer needs to fail before he’s removed from the position though. For instance, just last year Walden (10), Marmol (10), Capps (9) and Kimbrell (8) led closers in blown saves. After them, Soria blew seven leads and Farnsworth, Cordero, Feliz, Santos and Nunez blew six. Of those, only Cordero (and potentially Nunez) could not get a job closing because of ability in 2012.

Check the bottom of the column for the BS meter, which will track blown saves for relevant relievers all season long.

Chicago White Sox: Poor Robin Ventura waited until the 14th inning to get his “best” reliever into the game. The White Sox had a two-run lead when Hector Santiago took the mound. He struck out the first guy he faced, but then surrendered a single to Eric Skarsgård Sogard who was followed by the mighty Cespedes who homered to left. Seth Smith and Kurt Suzuki singled back-to-back and Kila Ka’aihue brought home the winning run. At least Santiago was around the plate (15 of his 21 pitches were strikes)? Santiago is getting killed by the long ball (30% HR/FB rate), while posting a nasty K:BB rate (9.00). In addition, every single runner Santiago has allowed on base has scored. If Rolaids spells relief, that spells regression. Meanwhile Jesse Crain was unavailable because of an oblique injury, which isn’t supposed to be serious. I have faith in Santiago’s stuff, but not Ventura’s patience. I’d put my money on Addison Reed at this point, unless Crain is healthy.

Chicago Cubs: While Carlos Marmol has been horrendous (with as many walks as K’s this year), the rest of the Chicago Cubs bullpen has been even worse. There’s no silver lining to Marmol’s stats as his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his wretched ERA. That said, it is just 5.2 IPs and the Cubs are going to keep throwing him out there to extract value and because they have no choice. At the end of Tuesday’s game, Dale Sveum said, ”He’s been pitching good. To me, that’s just a case of a 2-2 slider that one of the strongest guys in baseball hit for a home run. Did he do anything wrong or whatever? No, it was just another guy on the other side of the fence making a lot of money who does that quite often.” Marmol is and will continue to be the closer. So, basically, there’s no reason to handcuff or speculate here.

Washington Nationals: Brad Lidge has two blown saves, a 5.14 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, Henry Rodriguez has been near perfect (0.84 WHIP). However, Rodriguez has been working around a pretty ridiculous walk rate (six batters in 8.1 IPs) and has a .059 BABIP. At a certain point, the fairy tale will end. In addition, Davey Johnson keeps saying he’s going to throw Lidge out there in the ninth, vertigo and all. I’d rather own Rodriguez, he’s just better, but there’s no reason to drop Lidge yet.

Cleveland Indians: Chris Perez is awful, that is what is known as a baseball fact. Another baseball fact? Perez is the anointed closer. He has seven saves and as long as he keeps his blown saves down there’s no reason for the Indians to do anything. He’ll likely have to blow a few saves in a row or somehow get to 5-6 blown saves before the All Star Break to be in danger of losing the job. Meanwhile Vinnie Pestano is straight dirty and own-able just based on his nastiness (11 K:BB rate). However, it’s unlikely Pestano finishes with double digit saves, barring a Perez injury. If you desperately need saves, you might have to look elsewhere (Houston [Wilton Lopez], Oakland [Fautino de los Santos, Brian Fuentes]).

Baltimore Orioles: Orioles fans can breathe a sigh of relief as it appears Buck Showalter realized Pedro Strop is the second best reliever on the squad. If you own Jim Johnson and are a hand-cuffer, Strop is your man. Strop has paired impressive K-rates with high walk rates throughout his career but also gets a good bit of ground balls (a double play can mitigate a walk pretty quickly). He’s capable of a 3.85 ERA with 65+ K’s this year. Strop is, at the moment, just a handcuff as he’ll only get save chances when Johnson has the flu. Although, apparently, Johnson is still at the hospital having tests on what might be a bacterial issue, so Strop could have a few days as closer.

Boston Red Sox: While his return to the bullpen was momentary (for the time being), Daniel Bard reminded folks of how dominant he can be as a reliever (he entered the game with one out and a runner on third and didn’t allow the runner to score). Meanwhile, Alfredo Aceves is 3/5 in save opportunities and sports an astronomical 18.00 ERA and 2.75 WHIP. Andrew Bailey is on the 60-day DL and out until July. Aceves has some rope here given the rest of the bullpen is really bad. However, a couple of poor starts from Bard and an implosion or two from Aceves could get Bard in the closer seat. If you’re speculating here, grab Bard. He’s the only arm I’d be happy owning in the situation and, apparently, he was available in relief Wednesday night.

St. Louis Cardinals: From 2009-2011, Jason Motte had eight blown saves with just 11 conversions. Of course, for the majority of that time, he wasn’t actually a closer. Still, it does demonstrate the short amount of time Motte has actually been holding the role (heck, he hasn’t even been pitching that long, as he’s a converted catcher). Motte suffered his first blown save on Monday and sports an ugly 4.05 ERA. He is walking a few too many batters, but has a great K-rate and is really suffering from allowing all his HRs early in the season. There’s likely little to be worried about here even though Marc Rzepczynski started the ninth against the Chicago Cubs (he was facing a lefty) Tuesday. Rzepczynski promptly gave up a tying HR any way.

Toronto Blue Jays: With Sergio Santos on the DL, Francisco Cordero assumes a role he’s familiar with. From 2009-2011, Cordero recorded 116 saves and only blew 17. That’s the third best differential during that time frame (behind Heath Bell and Mariano Rivera). Of course, that was in the National League and Cordero has been anything but automatic this season. Cordero had a 1.91 K:BB rate last year and is sporting a 2.00 K:BB rate this year. He is being hit hard in the early going (20.8% LD rate, .360 BABIP) and will experience some bumps in the unforgiving AL East. Even if Cordero somehow turns into a lights out reliever (something he hasn’t been since 2007), Santos will get the job back once he’s healthy. The Blue Jays brought Santos in because he has the stuff to compete in the division. He’s their future at closer and they need to make it work now when the stakes aren’t very high. Cordero is a fine short-term speculation, but he’ll go back to trying to get holds when Santos is healthy. Santos will be out for about a month, even though an MRI showed no structural damage.

New York Mets: Frank Francisco has put up one ugly superficial stat line so far: 7.36 ERA, 1.77 WHIP. He has been walk happy so far (issuing 4 free passes in 7.1 IPs), but has, at least, maintained a solid K-rate. In addition, his strand rate (46.2%) and BABIP (.375) have done him no favors. Still, when healthy, Francisco is a solid reliever. He’ll rebound to put up a 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 60 K line at the end of the year. The only reason to own Jon Rauch is for potential Francisco injuries.

Kansas City Royals: Unlike Grey, I’ve been on the Jonathan Broxton bandwagon for awhile now, believing the Royals would want to do all they could to turn Broxton into a trade-able commodity. So far, Broxton has a 2.50 K:BB rate and is averaging 95.7 MPH on his fastball, a similar rate to 2010, which saw him post a 4.01 ERA, 3.01 FIP and 3.20 xFIP. Broxton’s current ratios will mirror his end of the year line. He’ll probably even strike out 60+.

Pitcher BS Pitcher BS
Scott Downs 2 Jose Valverde 1
Matt Belisle 2 Vinnie Pestano 1
Javier Lopez 2 Jonathan Broxton 1
Rex Brothers 2 David Hernandez 1
Brad Lidge 2 Jose Mijares 1
Carlos Marmol 2 Antonio Bastardo 1
Heath Bell 2 Jason Motte 1
Sergio Santos 2 Joe Nathan 1
Alfredo Aceves 2 Jon Rauch 1
Hector Santiago 2 Chris Perez 1
Matt Lindstrom 1 Casey Janssen 1
Mitchell Boggs 1 Ramon Ramirez 1
Brad Ziegler 1 Edward Mujica 1
Wilton Lopez 1 J.J. Putz 1
Darren Oliver 1 Brian Fuentes 1
Brandon League 1 Francisco Rodriguez 1
Andrew Cashner 1 Hisanori Takahashi 1
Pedro Strop 1 Glen Perkins 1
Mariano Rivera 1 Joel Peralta 1
Javy Guerra 1 Greg Holland 1
Kenley Jansen 1 Kerry Wood 1
Mark Melancon 1


Humber-uh, Humber-uh, Humber-uh

April 23, 2012 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 529 Comments →

Let Kate Upton know that Philip Humber is now allowed entrance into the Perfect Club as he retired 27 straight Mariners (here’s a tip: don’t get too close to Dallas Braden in the sauna).  That’s only the 21st perfect game in history – surprisingly, as you would’ve thought at least that many pitchers would have thrown perfect games against the Mariners last year.  Kudos to those of you who streamed, Humber.   A few of our comments on Saturday went like this, “Grabbed Humber for a stream cuz there was no one else, then dropped him before I even realized he pitched a perfect game.”  Nice Humberbrag!  Before you feel too proud of yourself for being the first to pick up Humber, just remember that the last two guys to throw a perfect game in the AL are Dallas Braden and Mark Buehrle.  The only difference between those non-dominating lefties and Humber is that Humber throws right handed and his first name is what I used to call the guy at the gas station when I was a jerky teenager.  You know, I gave him an aptronym.  Consider this perfect game less a reminder to pick up Phil Humber, but more a reminder that it’s generally a safe bet to stream a pitcher at Seattle.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Marlon Byrd – Traded to the Red Sox as the player to be named later for an old bet between Epstein and John Henry.  Teach Epstein to say, “I bet in eight years the greatest band in the world will be Hoobastank.”  Marlon Byrd is a marginal power, not great speed guy that has more real world value, like everyone who’s ever been on The Real World.  Think 12 homers, 5 steals.  If that excites you, take your meds, you’re excited too easily.

Michael Bowden – The once interesting prospect pitcher went the other way.  You can take that both ways, i.e., he’s no longer interesting and he’s headed to the Cubs (and presumably middle relief).  I wouldn’t be surprised if Epstein knows something that we don’t know (okay, probably a lot of something) in regards to Bowden, but for now there’s nothing to see here.

Tony Campana – Finally, we’re done with real world value where things matter like bill-paying and not getting annoyed when someone refills the toilet paper so it unrolls under.  Put it over so it rolls out!  *breathe, Grey, breathe*  With the trade of Byrd, Campana was recalled and started in center yesterday where he went 1-for-2.  Campana can steal 30 bases in 300 ABs.  He’s crazy fast.  He just ran into your cubicle, refilled your toner and ran out without you seeing him.

Jarrod Parker – Fat Jonah announced that Parker will be called up by the A’s for Wednesday’s game.  Last year, Parker was pretty pedestrian, but that might’ve been him still regaining his control from Tommy John surgery.  I just thought of something:  If I had something that was terminal and got to “Make a Wish,” my wish would be to have Tommy John surgery performed by Tommy John.  If Parker strikes out over 8 per nine as he’s done in the minors, gets ground balls and regains his control, he’s the best starter you’re picking up off waivers right now.  If he fails to translate his Ks and ground balls, then you have an A’s starter that could roofie you.

Jemile Weeks – 0-for-4, now batting .197.  Where’s your manners, Jemile?  If he were sucking this bad, Rickie would at least have the decency to get hurt.

Alfredo Aceves – I had this friend from high school, let’s call him Brian, cause that was his name.  Brian got a job at a hot dog place that served the best chili I’ve ever had.  So Brian got a job at this hot dog place and decided to start putting pubic hair into the chili.  Word spread pretty fast and the hot dog place that was there for 25 years was out of business within 6 months.  Alfredo Aceves is my friend Brian and that chili is the Red Sox’s closer job.

Daniel Bard – Seems slightly crazy that everyone, except the Red Sox knew Bard should be in the bullpen, but now he’s there.  He just went from K to F or M.  It might be temporary as his start was rained out, but I’d still grab him in the non-sexual way.

Roy Oswalt – Red Sox and Cards are reaching out to him to pitch for them.  Razzball got an exclusive peek at the negotiations!  “Roy, have you ever heard of my friend, Benjamin Franklin?”  The negotiator pulls out a hundred.  Oswalt shakes his head.  “Maybe you’ve heard of my friend, John Deere?”  Oswalt perks up.

Sergio Santos – To the DL with what I’m calling, “I told you not to draft him in the preseason!”  Grab Francisco Cordero immediately.  Though, I imagine unless you’re in a league with yourself and nine teams you own under different aliases, he’s gone.  Though II:  The Return of Though (that the critics dubbed:  Why do they keep making Though’s):  If you’re in a league against nine of yourself, I appreciate you still reading Razzball even if you might not need quote-unquote advice.

Francisco Cordero – Got the ugly save yesterday after giving up a run.  Hey, it’s like he’s been closing all year!

Danny Duffy – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners (5 BBs), 5 Ks vs. the Blue Jays.  Kinda felt this start coming.  Still like Duffy’s promise, but he looks about as safe to own as Filthy Sanchez and Hochevar.  Imagine the sun is made of walks and their wings are made of Ks.

Wei-Yin Chen – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Ugh, just having a real hard time advising to pick up O’s starters, especially one that had declining Ks before coming to this country.  I’d let someone else gamble.

Giancarlo Stanton – He says his knee is better.  From his mouth to God’s ears… Which I guess is him talking to himself.

Nick Swisher – Had a lovely time in Boston.  5-for-9 with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs.  Then the lemon butter dill sauce on the Dover Sole at Legal Seafood effectively masked the spit flavoring added by Chef Sully.

Mark Teixeira – M-Teix usually likes Aprils as much as Garfield likes Mondays but May seemed to come a fortnight early this year.  After hitting his 1st HR of the year on Thursday, Teixeira hit 2 HRs and a double on Saturday – including an opposite-field HR as a lefty.  Our little M-Teix is all May’d up.

Michael Pineda – Had a setback during his rehab, which Girardi deemed “not good.”  I’ll add “indeed.”

Adrian Beltre – Adrian’s rocky relationship with his hamstrings continues as he strained one on Saturday.  Beltre is headed for an MRI on Monday, and I wouldn’t be surprised if his hamstring says some wet blanket bullcrap like, “It’s suicide.  You’ve seen your leg, you know how fragile it is….you can’t run!”  Then the hamstring complains at Whole Foods when it has to pay full price for a Coppola wine.

Josh Hamilton – 3-for-3, 1 run, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs.  Can’t he party with Kinsler and some 19-year-old girls in a bathroom stall every preseason?

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 5 ER with a 11+ ERA on the year.  To rope fantasy baseballers back in, he’s due for a six unearned run, twelve walk no-hitter.

Frank Francisco – The closerousel continues as Frank Frank gets the dreaded vote of confidence.  When a manager, says someone is still their closer that gives them about five days before they’re no longer the closer.  I’d pick up Rauch, but wear back support he looks heavy.

Daniel Hudson – To the DL with a shoulder impingement, which is the worst kind of after-start ‘ment a pitcher can get.  He’s without a timetable; that’s a nice way to say, “Shizz just got real.”  The good news, the MRI revealed no structural damage, but the MRI was at 2-for-1 Ruby Tuesday’s happy hour yesterday.  Between Hudson and Collmenter, the Diamondbacks’ stalling on you-know-who just got accelerated.  If you don’t know you-know-who, hint:  he’s the next blurb.

Trevor Bauer – The Bauer countdown has officially begun.  Or said again with a whisper scream as he’s distracted because his daughter is in danger.   Scott has Bauer 9th on the top 25 fantasy baseball prospects list.  There, he compares him to Lincecum.  I think he meant that as a compliment.  In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s time to start stashing Bauer.  I think he’s up within the month, but could depend on Hudson.

Gerardo Parra – 2-for-4 with a slam & legs.  And here we thought it was Krispie.  The D-Backs’ centerfield position is an unknown location in Tibet with mystical powers.

Brennan Boesch – 1-for-5 with his 2nd homer.  I feel the tide starting to go out on Boesch in the comments.  I get it, he’s been terrible so far, but in most leagues I’d try to hold out.  He’s in such a great spot in a lineup and Leyland Ron Popeil’s his lineup about as good as anyone.

Drew Smyly – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Okay, you have to own him at this point.  He has nearly a K per inning and a 1.13 ERA.  I do think the bottom could fall out at any time.  Or at least fall relatively back to earth.

Kyle Blanks – To have season-ending surgery on his shoulder.  He didn’t blame the injury on carrying around David Eckstein in a bjorn.

Anthony Bass – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Hodgepadre!

Juan Francisco – Homered yesterday as he started at 3rd.  Too bad Glass Chipper isn’t due for a setback for another three days.

Jon Jay – Heading to St. Louis for tests on his shoulder.  No word if he’s being transported by Clydesdale, but I think that’s the only method of transportation in St. Louis, so maybe it’s implied.

Kyle Lohse – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Kinda excited for May just so I don’t have to keep talking about this schmohawk in a positive light.

Andrew McCutchen – Batting .351 in the three hole and has 2 RBIs on the year.  Guys and (4 ladies), your Pittsburgh Pirates!

Ryan Zimmerman – He was scratched on Saturday (aaah…) and then Sunday was rained out, but he expects his shoulder to be up to snuff for Tuesday.  Bob Crane would say that’s hot.

Chad Billingsley – 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the Astros.  Look in the mirror.  See that person?  They got sucked in by Billingsley.

Freddy Sanchez – Will start Monday his rehab, I said, “Whatever, whatever, whatever.”

Cliff Lee – The Adverb is off to the DL with an oblique injury following his 10 inning scoreless start.  Little known fact – Jack Morris had to ice his moustache for a solid week after that memorable 10 inning World Series start.  ObLeeque had a strained abdomen with the Mariners in 2010 that cost him a month – hopeful Lee this will be limited to missing 3 starts.

Chris Narveson – Chris Capuano 2.0 looks done for the year with a rotator cuff injury.  On the bright side, he now has more time to sell insurance to the fine folks of Punxsutawney.