Fantasy Baseball Advice

As of May 13th, Eric Hosmer has started his early MLB career slashing .280/.387/.600 in 25 at-bats with 2 home runs, 5 RBI and a 7:5 K:BB ratio. Granted, it’s a small sample size but his start reminds me of two recent rookies who were similarly hyped: Jay Bruce and Ryan Braun. Bruce was called up and went 15 for 29 with 3 home runs, 7 RBI with a 2:7 K:BB ratio from late May to the first two days of June. Bruce’s June slash-line: .223/.274/.340 in 103 ABs. By year end, he finished with a .254/.314/.453 slash line for the year. Braun started 6 for 27 with 1 home run, 4 RBI with a 8:0 K:BB ratio. Braun went on to hit .382/.435/.716 in 102 at-bats during June and finished with a .324/.370/.634 in 451 at-bats (2007). I wouldn’t be surprised to have him perform at a level between the beginnings of Braun and Bruce rookie years. But, and there’s always a but, keep expectations tempered and be prepared for pitchers start finding his weaknesses. Other notable prospects to watch for:

Mike Minor/Julio Teheran | ATL | SP (AAA): With Brandon Beachy straining his oblique in his Friday start, it’s speculated that Minor or Teheran fill-in while Beachy is on the DL. Either pitcher should be picked up.

Domonic Brown | PHI | RF (AAA): Sprained UCL in right thumb – same hand with broken Hamate bone. He will miss 5 to 7 days.

Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B (AAA): With 10 home runs and a slash of .377/.447/.708 in 131 at-bats. He has been slowly regressing towards the mean while staying hot. Grey made recommendation to pick up in NL-Only leagues for the time being, until he’s called up. Concur, with the addition of deep leagues. As June nears, I would start eying the possibility of picking him up.

Desmond Jennings | TB | CF (AAA): Has hit two home runs in last two games and is proving he belongs in the majors. His K:BB ratio is 28:21 in 130 at-bats. The strikeouts are uncharacteristically high for Jennings. The power potential scouts have been hoping for is starting to show with 5 home runs, not to mention eight steals in as many attempts. Expect a June call-up. He’s deserving.

Bryce Harper | WAS | RF (A): He should be promoted to High-A soon as he has 19 XBH (8 Hr) with 6 steals and a .390/.467/.686 slash line in 118 at-bats. He’s been everything everyone had expected.

Brett Jackson | CHC | CF (AA): Was placed on DL with strained ligament in left pinky caused by sliding into second base on 5/11/11. Time frame is currently unknown.

Fernando Martinez | NYM | CF (AAA): Called up for Friday’s game to fill Angel Pagan’s roster spot and hit a pinch-hit home run. Collins plans to use him as a bench player. You’d think that a solid prospect hitting .292/.361/.477 would at least get a chance to plan more than occasionally. Expect to see him sent back down when Pagan returns from the DL.

Andy Dirks | DET | OF (AAA): With Magglio Ordonez going on the DL, he received the call up after .328/.375/.527 with six home runs. A good contact hitter with gap power (12 to 15 home run ceiling). Struggles versus left-handed pitchers. Upside for career is fourth-outfielder. For more information see Detroit Tigers 2010 Minor League Review.

Brett Lawrie | TOR | 3B (AAA): Has hit 4 home runs in last 10 games as his average is regressing to the mean. Still a strong play for third when called up. Think Pedro Alvarez. (Rudy to Grey: So does that mean Lawrie will f*** our 2012 teams like Alvarez has f***ed our 2011 teams? If so, now we just need to not draft him and “the next Morneau” and we’re set!)

Trayvon Robinson | LAD | OF (AAA): Not sold on him contributing this year with 38 strikeouts in 122 at-bats with only average power and 4 SBs (Rudy: He has 7 HRs in PCL but that league is like Coors Field pre-humidor. Wily Mo Pena has 13 HRs so far this year!). Defensively has good range but a fringe-average arm. If Robinson starts to make more contact, could be a Rajai Davis or Willy Taveras type player. Don’t expect until September as his game needs more refinement.

Jesus Montero | NYY | C/DH (AAA): The smooth hitting Montero has been lacing base-hits all over the field this year hitting .325/.350/.421 in 121 at-bats. His 2 home runs, 5 doubles and 25:5 K:BB ratio are disappointing. At only 21 years old, the power should develop but at this point he’s a poor man’s Joe Mauer. With Jorge Posada showing his age (Rudy: and grumpy old manness on Saturday), Montero could provide a jolt of youth and minor pop in the near future.

Brandon Allen | ARI | 1B (AAA): Has warmed up after starting slowly. Has 2 home runs, 2 triples and 2 doubles, 10 RBI and hitting .355/.475/.742 in last 31 at-bats (10 games). Overall, hitting .313/.413/.531 in 128 at-bats with 5 home runs but with 34 strikeouts. The average wont stay this high, the strikeouts are expected, and the power is starting to come around. (Rudy: That said, the Diamondbacks still prefer Juan Miranda, Russell Branyan, Xavier Nady, and Gerardo Parra. Grrr!)

New York Mets 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking according to Baseball America (2010)
2010 (22) | 2009 (17) | 2008 (17) | 2007 (13) | 2006 (28) | 2005 (19) | 2004 (10)

Record of Major and Minor League Team(s)
MLB: [79 – 83] NL East
AAA: [76 –68] International League – Buffalo
AA: [66 – 76] Eastern League – Binghamton
A+: [62 – 76] Florida League – St. Lucie
A: [75 – 65] South Atlantic League – Savannah
A(ss): [51 – 24] New York-Pennsylvania League – Brooklyn
R: [28 – 39] Appalachian League – Kingsport
R: [31 – 25] Gulf League

The Run Down
The Mets already have a new Manager in Terry Collins, a new GM in Sandy Alderson, and a new Special Assistant to the GM in J.P. Ricciardi. It’s only the beginning of December, but the Mets at least have some early holiday cheer depending on your perspective. Having Omar Minaya off the throne should mean Fernando Martinez and Jenrry Mejia will stop getting tugged around.  The Mets had some surprisingly successful, yet unspectacular (for fantasy) rookie seasons from Ike Davis and Jon Niese. Ruben Tejada, on the other hand, he wasn’t ready for the majors, and if it wasn’t fairly clear from his Triple-A slash line of .280/.329/.344, then his major league slash line of .213/.305/.282 definitely makes the case. Of course, there was the mishandling of Jenrry Mejia that had people calling for Minaya’s head. For all the grief that the Mets received this past year, they actually had a better record in 2010 (79-82) than in 2009 when they went 70-92. A poor year from Jason Bay, an unimpressive season from Johan Santana, injury ravaged season from Carlos Beltran and Luis Castillo, and the foolish decision to run Oliver Perez out every fifth day for seven starts doesn’t help. The players coming up that are close to the majors (e.g. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Fernando Martinez, Jenrry Mejia) could help some of those troubled positions. Also, the talent in the low-to-mid minors (e.g. Wilmer Flores, Brad Holt, Reese Havens, Jeurys Familia) have plenty of upside.  The Mets have aggressively pushed their prospects through the minors (i.e. Ruben Tejada). Subsequently, it might be possible to see some of these prospects sooner than my conservative ETAs. Speaking from a fantasy perspective, the Mets have the potential with several sleepers for the 2011 season (e.g. Nieuwenhuis, Martinez, Mejia, Lucas Duda, Zach Lutz, Dillion Gee, and Tobi Stoner). I personally like Nieuwenhuis, Mejia, the deep sleeper Gee and the obvious talent of Martinez when he is healthy.

Graduating Prospects
#4 (1B) Ike Davis; #6 (LHP) Jon Niese; #8 (C) Josh Thole; #9 (SS) Ruben Tejada

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Pitchers: #16 (LHP) Robert Carson; #26 (RHP) Josh Stinson; #4 (RHP) Brad Holt; #24 (LHP) Eric Niesen; (RHP) Nick Carr
Hitters: (C) Kai Gronauer; #13 (RF) Kirk Nieuwenheis; #30 (2B/SS) Jordany Valdespin

Players of Interest
Hitters
#3 Fernando Martinez | OF | D.o.B: 10-10-88 | Stats (AAA):.253/.317/.455 | 257 AB | 28 XBH | 12 Hr | .202 ISO | 1/0 SB/CS | 65:17 K:BB | .291 BABIP
What is there to know about Martinez that most haven’t heard? A) He’s injury prone. B) He is still only 22. C) At age 20, he was the Mets number one ranked prospect. Here is what I said in the Mets 2009 Minor League Review, “Martinez struggled in his brief stint in the majors … Being so young, he is clearly still their top prospect … [Has] the tools and skills to produce at a corner outfield spot. Keep him on your radar for 2010 in case of any injury problems occur for the Mets.” Well, he re-injured himself this past year, he wasn’t the Mets top prospect, and his numbers show that he still needs work on his strike zone judgment. Beyond this, at just 22 during the 2011 season, why turn a cold shoulder to a hitter that has tremendous raw power and past hype? If he ever gets his act together, he could slash .275/.340/.475 with 25 to 30 home runs in the majors. I’d expect a Spring Training battle with him involved.

#13 Kirk Nieuwenhuis | RF | D.o.B: 8-7-87 | Stats (AA/AAA): .274/.327/.475 | 514 AB | 64 XBH | 18 Hr | .201 ISO | 13/7 SB/CS | 132:41 K:BB | BABIP (see below)
Nieuwenhuis performed well at Double-A (.289/.337/.510 in 433 plate appearance) while struggling mightily at Triple-A (.225/.295/.358 in 133 plate appearances). Can’t blame the Triple-A performance on luck either, his BABIP shows a fair amount of luck (AA BABIP: .338; AAA BABIP: .316). Baseball America states that Nieuwenhuis is a potential 20/20 candidate. Here is what I said in the Mets 2009 Minor League Review, “Possesses above-average speed … He strikes out a bit too much, walks at a good rate.” His speed was not a part of his game at Triple-A, but to be fair, he wasn’t on base often enough to produce steals. His strikeouts are still a red flag and his walks seemed to peter out at Triple-A. If he played for the Red Sox, his name would be Ryan Kalish. Expect a start at Triple-A.

Lucas Duda | 1B/LF | D.o.B: 2-3-86 | Stats (AA/AAA): .304/.398/.569 | 425 AB | 65 XBH | 23 Hr | .265 ISO | 1/0 SB/CS | 84:64 K:BB | BABIP (AA: .310; AAA: .346)
More of a fourth or fifth outfield option that has played first in the past, but due to Ike Davis, Duda has been pushed to the outfield. Duda received 92 plate appearances while slashing .202/.261/.417 with 4 home runs. Nothing special really.  He has some power, some decent plate-discipline and pinch hitter written all over him.

Pitchers
Jose De La Torre | RHP | D.o.B: 10-17-85 | Stats (AA/AAA): 10.2 K/9 | 4.2 BB/9 | 70 1/3 IP | 2.69 ERA | FIP (AA: 2.97; AAA: 3.76) | 1.22 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 6.7 H/9 | BABIP (AA: .286; AAA: .284)
De La Torre is for all of you Mr. B’s out there. 30 of those innings were at Triple-A and he pitched just as well as his stats show. Torre could help the always volatile bullpen core, or for those of you looking for holds.

#23 Dillon Gee | RHP | D.o.B: 4-28-86 | Stats (AAA): 9.2 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 161 IP | 4.96 ERA | 4.01 FIP | 1.33 WHIP | 1.3 Hr/9 | 9.7 H/9 | .342 BABIP
His stuff is considered “fringe-average,” as he has a solid changeup, a 88 to 92 MPH fastball, a cutter and a slow curveball. Could he be the Travis Wood, Randy Wells, Jhoulys Chacin of 2011? Possibly. Could also flame out. He did have five starts in September, throwing 33 innings with a 2.18 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; his rates were less than inspiring at 4.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. I’m throwing the caution flag, next March through early April will determine if the green flag is waved.

#29 Tobi Stoner | RHP | D.o.B: 12-3-84 | Stats (AAA): 6.2 K/9 | 3.2 BB/9 | 120 2/3 IP | 5.97 ERA | 4.96 FIP | 1.67 WHIP | 1.3 Hr/9 | 11.8 H/9 | .352 BABIP
I’ll let my 2009 Mets Minor League Review do the talking, “Not an exciting pitcher with a 91 to 93 MPH fastball and average off-speed pitches. He could be worth a few spot starts or decent ratios from the bullpen.” Ho-hum. Boring. He may have reached his potential. Aren’t the Pirates looking for pitching help?

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#2 Wilmer Flores | SS | D.o.B: 8-6-91 | Stats (A/A+): .289/.333/.424 | 554 AB | 50 XBH | 11 Hr | .135 ISO | 4/5 SB/CS | 77:32 K:BB | BABIP (A:.298;A+:.336)
Flores’ season was nearly evenly split between Single-A and High-A with 66 games at Single-A and 67 games at High-A. His numbers weren’t anything to scoff at or write home about. He has tremendous power potential but won’t play shortstop his entire career or even in the majors. However, I fully expect a September call up in 2011. If not, he won’t be on any fantasy player’s radar until the beginning of the 2012 season. Still waiting for the potential to be lived out in the numbers.

#7 Reese Havens | 2B | D.o.B: 10-20-86 | Stats (A+/AA):.312/.386/.592 | 125 AB | 15 XBH | 9 Hr | .280 ISO | 0/3 SB/CS | 33:14 K:BB | BABIP (A+:.361; AA: 362)
Havens has some power potential, like a poor man’s Dan Uggla, and plays good defense. However, Havens has a history of injury problems. I would expect Havens to start the season at Double-A, and if Ruben Tejada struggles again in 2011, Havens may get a chance. Nevertheless, Havens is an “Honorable Mention” due to his injury history and need to prove that his limited success in the mid-minors isn’t just BABIP induced luck enhanced by his small sample size.

#21 Zach Lutz | 3B | D.o.B: 6-3-86 | Stats (AA): .289/.389/.578 | 225 AB | 31 XBH | 17 Hr | .189 ISO | 0/2 SB/CS | 63:33 K:BB | .331 BABIP
Playing third base for the Mets means you’ll never reach the majors playing third base. Lutz has poor defense, a compact swing with gap power, and good control of the strike zone. Baseball America quoted a scout saying, “He reminded me of Ron Coomer, a stockier guy who can swing the bat, drive in runs, make the routine play … could be a role player.” ‘Nuff said.

#22 Sean Ratliff | RF | D.o.B: 2-24-87 | Stats (A+/AA): .298/.353/.505 | 503 AB | 59 XBH | 21 Hr | .207 ISO | 10/4 SB/CS | 138:40 K:BB | BABIP (A+: .368; AA: .372)
Extremely aggressive hitter with towering power. The power is nice, but may have to switch back to being a pitcher to reach the majors; he does throw a 92 MPH fastball and was a pitcher in college.

Pitchers
Mark Cohoon | LHP | D.o.B: 9-15-87 | Stats (A/AA): 7.3 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 161 1/3 IP | 2.57 ERA | FIP (A: 2.49; AA: 3.47) | 1.08 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 7.9 H/9 | BABIP (A: .269; AA: .325)
I like the control, limited home runs, and that his FIP was fairly reflective of his ERA at each level. Not much information on Cohoon, who will need to repeat his success in 2011 at Double-A and possibly Triple-A to reach the majors. Could do something similar to Travis Wood or Sam LeCure.

#5 Brad Holt | RHP | D.o.B: 10-13-86 | Stats (A+/AA): 8.2 K/9 | 7.5 BB/9 | 95 IP | 8.34 ERA | FIP (A+: 5.32; AA: 5.00) | .6 Hr/9 | 10.5 H/9 | BABIP (A+: .345; AA: .408)
Quoting myself from the 2009 Mets Minor League Review, “He throws a mid 90′s fastball that can top out at 98 MPH, with a potential plus slider, and a raw change-up. There is some questioning whether he should be a starter or a reliever as he only has two pitches he can control well.” Looks like he should be a reliever, but even then, he wasn’t able to control his pitches. Holt is like most flame throwers, just a thrower wishing he could pitch in the majors.

#15 Jeurys Familia | RHP | D.o.B: 10-10-89 | Stats (A+): 10.2 K/9 | 5.5 BB/9 | 121 IP | 5.58 ERA | 3.89 FIP | 1.58 FIP | .5 Hr/9 | 8.7 H/9 | .350 BABIP
Throws a 90 to 95 MPH fastball, a slider and a changeup. Currently, he isn’t a refined pitcher, according to pre-2010 season scouting reports. Familia kept the nice strikeout rate from 2009, but his walk rate doubled and the remaining ratio stats went to the gutter. Although he had a great 2009 season, his 2010 season shows the constantly shifting value of low-minor league talent and performance. I wouldn’t write him off yet, he is still quite young, was unlucky (.350 BABIP), and doesn’t give up many home runs (.5 Hr/9). I said he could reach the majors in 2011 during my 2009 Mets Minor League Review; it would be more accurate to state that a 2011 call up would be optimistic. I expect he gets pushed to Double-A in 2011.

New York Mets 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking according to Baseball America (2009)
2009 (17) | 2008 (17) | 2007 (13) | 2006 (28) | 2005 (19) | 2004 (10)

Record of Major and Minor League Team(s)
MLB: [70 – 92] NL East
AAA: [56 – 87] International League
AA: [54 – 84] Eastern League
A+: [66 – 88] Florida League
A: [65 – 72] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [45 – 30] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [30 – 35] Appalachian League
R: [22 – 34] Gulf League

The Run Down
An injury riddled season destroyed the Mets chances at contending in 2009. Furthermore, readers here at Razzball, and others elsewhere, have declared Citi Field, Petco of the east, aka Metco. There was definitely a few bright spots for the Mets in 2009 – Angel Pagan, Jonathon Niese, Josh Thole, and Bobby Parnell. Pagan was picked up from the Cubs prior to the 2008 season and proved valuable last year. Taking over for Beltran when he went down with a bum knee, Pagan secured at least a fourth outfielder role for 2010 and possibly even pushing Jeff Francoeur for a starting gig. Before Niese went down with a torn right hamstring (that required surgery to fix), he pitched 25 solid, yet unspectacular, innings. Although he was injured in early August, he looked poised to stay in the rotation for the remainder of the season. If his recovery goes according to plan, Jon Niese could be a nice sleeper pick in the later rounds. Thole came up in September and continued his great hitting slashing .321/.356/.396 in 56 at-bats at the major league level after slashing .328/.395/.422 in 384 minor league at-bats. Nothing powerful, but definitely adequate when combined with his average defense behind the plate. If the Mets don’t sign another catcher this offseason, Thole could be battling Omar Santos and Henry Blanco for catching duties to start the 2010 season. Lastly, Parnell. He didn’t pitch extraordinarily well but did show his versatility in starting eight games. As with any rookie, he showed his ups and downs. Even with the injuries in 2009, 2010 could prove a more interesting year with the signing of Bay and the assistance of a few young players from this past season (Parnell, Niese, Evans, Thole and maybe even Fernando Martinez).

Graduating Prospects
#5 – (RHP) Bobby Parnell; #9 – (1B/OF) Nick Evans

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Rafters
Pitchers – #7 (RHP) Jenrry Mejia, #13 (RHP) Scott Moviel, (LHP) Eric Niesen, (RHP) Josh Stinson
Hitters – #11 (1B) Ike Davis, #8 (SS) Reese Havens, #16 (SS) Ruben Tejada, #20 (OF) Lucas Duda

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Fernando Martinez | CF | AAA | 20 | .290/.337/.540 | 176 AB | 16 2B | 8 HR | .250 ISO | 33:11 K:BB | .319 BABIP | 49.3 GB% | 18.1 LD% | 32.6 FB%
Just turned 21 this offseason, Martinez struggled in his brief stint in the majors early in the season hitting just .176/.242/.275 in 91 at-bats. Being so young, he is clearly still their top prospect. His power was greater this year than in the past (.250 ISO). Not destined to the next great center fielder, however, he does have the tools and skills to produce at a corner outfield spot. Keep him on your radar for 2010 in case of any injury problems occur for the Mets. He should start the 2010 season where he left off – Triple-A.

#11 – Ike Davis | 1B | A+/AA | 22 | .298/.381/.524 | 429 AB | 31 2B | 20 HR | .216 ISO | 112:57 K:BB | .365 BABIP | 39.8 GB% | 17.3 LD% | 42.8 FB%
After hitting zero home runs in 215 at-bats in 2008, doubters began questioning his “raw power,” but failed to consider an oblique injury. Splitting time between High-A and Double-A, Davis flat out raked. Not necessarily the most polished hitter, he still has some work to do with his swing and strikeout rate but he should continue to hit for power as he keeps a decent rate of balls in the air (42.8 FB%). He’ll start 2010 where he left, Double-A, and may progress to Triple-A if all goes well.

#16 – Ruben Tejada | SS/2B | AA | 19 | .289/.351/.381 | 488 AB | 24 2B | 5 HR | .092 ISO | 19/3 SB/CS | 59:37 K:BB | .325 BABIP | 45.6 GB% | 14.4 LD% | 35.7 FB%
Extremely young, the Mets have pushed him since he signed in the winter of 2006. Not necessarily the most skilled or polished player in the infield, his defense is at least above average, but he will eventually move to second base to accommodate for Jose Reyes. He isn’t super speedy, but is smart of the base paths and has a great feel for the strike zone considering his age. He may stay at Double-A for another season in 2010 to allow his age to catch up to his level so his success can be greater. However, that wisdom was supposed to be employed in 2009 when he should have repeated High-A where he struggled. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him at Triple-A in 2010.

Pitchers
#7 – Jenrry Mejia | RHP | A+/AA | 19 | 8.7 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 94 2/3 IP | 3.14 ERA | 3.10 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | .2 HR/9 | .311 BABIP | 59.3 GB% | 9.1 LD% | 21.5 FB%
Dominating competition at both High-A (44 1/3 IP) and Double-A (50 1/3 IP) with a mid 90′s fastball, a curve and an awesome change-up. Rarely does a power pitcher produce high ground ball rates, but Mejia induced a drool worthy rate (59.3 GB%). For comparison sake, Joel Pinero had a rate of 60.5 GB% in 2009. Mejia has an extremely high ceiling, and probably is the Mets best pitching prospect. Although he struggles repeating his delivery, he is on the fast track. He should return to Double-A in 2010.

#4 – Brad Holt | RHP | A+/AA | 23 | 8.8 K/9 | 3.2 BB/9 | 101 1/3 IP | 4.88 ERA | 4.62 FIP | 1.26 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | .295 BABIP | 38 GB% | 14.1 LD% | 43.3 FB%
He struggled mightily at Double-A, but is still one of their better pitching prospects. He throws a mid 90′s fastball that can top out at 98 mph, with a potential plus slider, and a raw change-up. There is some questioning whether he should be a starter or a reliever as he only has two pitches he can control well. He started last year, but the majors may dictate otherwise.

#19 – Tobi Stoner | RHP | AA/AAA | 24 | 5.7 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 144 2/3 IP | 3.55 ERA | 4.35 FIP | 1.15 WHIP | .9 HR/9 | .247 BABIP | 39.6 GB% | 14.3 LD% | 42.3 FB%
I struggled where to place Stoner. He pitched 97 2/3 innings at Triple-A and pitched well (5.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 with a 4.25 FIP and 1.29 WHIP). Not an exciting pitcher with a 91 to 93 mph fastball and average off season pitches (Slider, Curve and Change-up), Stoner received a September call-up and threw nine innings of scrap time. Nevertheless, he may pitch well enough to play out of spring training or one of the first players to called up if there is an injury. He could be worth a few spot starts or decent ratios from the bullpen.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#2 – Wilmer Flores | SS | A | 17 | .264/.305/.332 | 488 AB | 20 2B | 3 HR | .068 ISO | 3/3 SB/CS | 72:22 K:BB | .304 BABIP | 40.9 GB% | 12.5 LD% | 46.6 FB%
Eventually Flores will be shifted to a corner infield spot as he projects to fill out his body frame. He wasn’t overmatched at Single-A while producing lackadaisical numbers. He is placed in honorable mentions because he won’t sniff the majors until 2011 at the earliest.

#8 – Reese Havens | SS | A+ | 22 | .247/.361/.422 | 360 AB | 19 2B | 14 HR | .175 ISO | 73:55 K:BB | .277 BABIP | 39.4 GB% | 13.1 LD% | 47.1 FB%
Havens turned 23 this offseason. He is a “swing for the fences” type hitter who actually has decent walk and strikeout rates (13.3% and 20.3% respectfully). Of the two hitters drafted in 2008 (Davis and Havens) Havens was projected to be on the fast track for the majors. His slash line looks sad if one ignores his low BABIP (.277), however, the power is there and the plate-discipline is good. Look for him to play at Double-A next year (with Tejada moving up to Triple-A or second at Double-A).

Kirk Nieuwenhuis | OF | A+/AA | 21 | .282/.364/.479 | 514 AB | 38 2B | 17 HR | .197 ISO | 17/5 SB/CS | 127:57 K:BB | .347 BABIP | 54 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 32.2 FB%
He played only eight games at Double-A (40 AB), and should return there in 2010. He was drafted in 2008 and played his first full season this past year. Possessing above-average speed and playing in center, Nieuwenhuis did well in nearly all parts of his game. He strikes out a bit too much, walks at a good rate, uses his speed by hitting the ball on the ground, but doesn’t hit the ball hard often (13.2 LD%) and could see his ISO falter if his fly ball or line drive rate doesn’t rise a bit (32.2 FB%). However, he injected himself into the conversation about who may play in the Mets outfield in the future. Next year at this time you may be seeing his name in the above section.

Pitchers
Jeurys Familia | RHP | A | 19 | 7.3 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 134 IP | 2.96 ERA | 3.40 FIP | 1.16 WHIP | .2 HR/9 | .279 BABIP | 48.8 GB% | 12.8 LD% | 31.3 FB%
Aided by a slightly below average BABIP, Familia rose quite a few brows this year. Possessing a 88-94 mph fastball, a curveball, and a change-up, he went from an afterthought to a prized prospect. It was just one season, but the hype is now there. If he repeats this type of performance, he could be pitching in the majors by 2011.

Kyle Allen | RHP | A | 19 | 8 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 125 1/3 IP | 3.45 ERA | 3.96 FIP | 1.28 WHIP | .6 HR/9 | .289 BABIP | 55 GB% | 15.1 LD% | 24.9 FB%
I couldn’t find much on Allen, but his ground ball rate jumps off the screen. Combined with his age and numbers, Allen may get some hype as the season wears on.

Trouble ahead, Casey Jones, if you think Matt Cain is ’08 Lincecum.  I went over why this doode was faux-Cain two weeks go when I broke down FIP.  Now everyone is saying to sell high on him.  And by everyone, I mean ESPN.  Two weeks late, guys.  Went there already.  Oh, and I’m not going to link to them, because, as Berry said, that’s what they want.  Well, I want Berry to say I told him not to draft Nolasco and then he went and said Nolasco was in store for a great year.  When Berry says, I told him so.  I’ll link to them.  Wait, what was I saying?  Oh, yeah!  Cain!  So you got your lugwrench out and you’re trying to figure out how to make Cain able again.  The discrepancy between where Cain is now and where he should be is scary like Carol Channing without makeup.  Why?  Blah blah blah Lower K rate, very high strand rate… yadda yadda yadda… I went over it two weeks ago.  Open that FIP link.  And, yes, I touted the beejesus out of Cain in the preseason and I own him on a few teams.  And, yes, I’d actually feel better if his ERA was just in the low fours like it should be.  Don’t overrate his current ERA.  You know that.  So everyone’s zigging as they try to sell Cain, what do you do?  Zag?  Do you have the alligator blood to buy him for cheap?  Maybe.  It’s hard to sell a guy when their player news is calling for a regression.  It’s like running headlong into projectile vomit.  Then again, someone will drop some Liquid Paper on his stats any day now.  Now for the good news, his last time out he dropped his FIP from 4.85 to a more manageable 4.36.  One more strong start and who knows maybe he can actually be a 4.00 pitcher.  He’s not, I repeat, not a 2.40 ERA pitcher right now, but as long as you keep that in mind, you should be all right.  So sell him if you can get a decent deal, or buy him, but know what you’re getting.  Right now, people want to sell him so bad, you may actually get a decent deal for him.  He’s not terrible, just not quite what he’s been showing.  (BTW, CBS was touting Mark Reynolds as a buy this week.  I told you to buy him in March.  ESPN told you to sell Cain and Jurrjens this week.  I told you that two weeks ago.  If I didn’t write this shizz, I’d be reading it too.  Hey, wait a minute, my ‘stache looks weird with my bigger head.)  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell for this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

J.P. Izzywheelfourson – Not sure if people are already done with the Rays and their bullpen shituation, but I’d hold for another week or two because whoever emerges will have value.  For full disclosure, I’m currently holding Wheeler on some teams.  No one else.

Jeff Clement – Honestly, I don’t know if he’s going to get called up with Johjima on the DL with a broken thumbkin, but if Clement gets the call, he’ll be worth a spot in mixed leagues for the catching deprived.  Right now, I’d own him in AL-Only leagues.  Recognize!

Jake Fox – Went over picking up Jake Fox yesterday.  Cliff Notes version:  The use of the phrase, “…like Tyra Banks would say, he can (hit) fiercely,” was an allusion to the reality show, America’s Next Top Model, where Tyra Banks, a former top model and terrible TV host, critiques aspiring models with the noted fashion photographer, Nigel Barker.  When an aspiring model performs well in a challenge, she’s said to be “fierce.”  So Grey is saying Jake Fox can hit well.

Fernando Martinez – As we continue our rookie nookie portion of our program, Martinez may only be up for a week or two.  I think he’s way too raw at this point in 12 team mixed leagues, so I haven’t grabbed him anywhere, but ya never know.

Tommy Hanson – Has to be up very soon.  Medlen’s been garbage.  We need Coach Leak to get the crowd started, “Let him play… Let him play…”

Luke Scott – He might only hit five homers in June, but they’ll probably come in the next week.

Alcides Escobar – Someone said something in the comments the other day that was funny, “If Web Gems is a category, this guy would be a 1st rounder.”  Or something like that, I’m paraphrasing and I don’t even know who said it and I didn’t feel like searching… Anyhoo, the Brewers put Escobar at 2nd base the day after Weeks went down.  Curious?  Yeah, they’re going to call him up.  Escobar probably won’t give you much offensively this year, except for steals.  SAGNOF!

J.A. Happ – Pickin’ up the Happy dugout!  What, no Ice Cube fans?  For shame.  Happ’s in a crizzappy park, but he gets the Nats and Padres in Petco next.

Russell Martin – Funny thing happened on the way to June.  Martin forgot he was a 1st half hitter. Anyone that actually wasted a draft pick on this catcher can’t be happy.  Right now, they’re thinking about how they could’ve punted the catcher spot, grabbed Varitek late and had 10 homers.  And they’re right, suckas!  Schadenfreude!  That doesn’t mean you can’t exploit their fragile sense of self.  Nietzsche!   Right now, they’d probably give you Martin for a side order of meatballs.  Great movie!  I’d prefer to have Martin than Varitek (or insert random catcher schmohawk that you own) for the rest of the year, so if you can weasel Martin out of someone’s clutches, consent granted.

SELL

Brandon Phillips – I was a big supporter of Phillips this year and still am, but only if he can prove healthy, and that but is J. Lo-sized.  I have a sneaky suspicion that Phillips is going to come back, then realize he can’t play with his hairline fracture on his thumb and go to the DL for 6 weeks.  Monitor him and field offers, so you seem like you’re, a, hip to the game.

Nick Johnson – You’ve been bamboozled.  Yes, you have.  No, he’s not going to stay healthy.  Nope.  Sorry.  Oh, and healthy Johnson has four homers.  Yawstipating.

Jorge De La Rosa – Not sure if I mentioned this when it happened, but I picked up George of the Rose the other day.  But benched him for his first start with me because I didn’t trust him.  He went three and a third innings and gave up seven runs.  Tragedy and trajectory towards the TV averted.  I dropped him the next day.

Manny Parra – You might’ve only owned him because of me so let me be the one to break it to you.  Commandment #1, Pitchers shall not issue walks.  Parra, go to hell.

Matt Wieters was finally called up by the Orioles.  We know what you’re all thinking – how could they give up on Gregg Zaun so quickly?  Don’t the Orioles brass have the intestinal fortitude to withstand the hype surrounding this ‘phenom’ when they’ve got the ultimate journeyman?  Evidently not.  So how has Wieters been spending his near two months in AAA detention?  He’s been awesome…ly average.  .285 average.  5 HRs.  30 Ks in 137 ABs.  There’s little doubt that Wieters will be an excellent hitter for years to come (see his .350+ average b/w A and AA last year) but those AAA numbers are more likely what you’ll get from him in 2009.  Think .285 with 12 HRs.  He could prove us wrong and you can do worse than bet on hitting upside at Catcher.  Just don’t overpay for it.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jason Bartlett – Another day, another injury to a Rays middle infielder.  Yesterday, it was Iwamura.  Now Bartlett goes on the DL with a sprained ankle that he hurt while practicing his dismount from the statistical stratosphere (.373 AVG!).  Reid Brignac, who has been hyped for a while, will replace him.

Jose Reyes - Has there ever been a top 5 pick whose owners were relieved when they went on the DL?  Enter Reyes.  What’s the use of Reyes if he has a bum leg (strained calf)?  Let him get healthy so he can steal some damn bases.

Fernando Martinez – Was called up yesterday.  Fernando Martinez is going to be a great one and he should be pursued in keeper leagues.  But let’s turn over the post to frequent commenter, Mr. Baseball, for a second.  He listed these names:  Travis Snider, Cameron Maybin, Dexter Fowler, Matt LaPorta, Elvis Andrus and Matt Gamel.  His point is fairly obvious.  Rookie nookie starts out like a frollicking gazelle and ends like a dead gazelle.  Martinez will hit one homer, slap some fans’ hands, and get sent down when the Church of Concussed Heads returns.  He’s a decent flier, because you never know what he may do for a week or two, but don’t drop anyone too worthwhile.

David Wright – Has three homers, but stole his 11th base yesterday.  Sympathy gains for Reyes?

Carlos Quentin – Now saying he’ll hopefully be back next Monday.  Awesome!  Maybe next week he can get in one at-bat and then miss another two weeks.  Could someone conference call Quentin with Chipper to explain the merits of the DL?

Max Scherzer – 7 IP.  Second straight 10 K game.  Just as encouraging, he’s thrown only 2 BBs in those games.  Owners enjoy the ride and keep your fingers crossed he stays healthy.

Melky Cabrera – Left the game with a sore shoulder after crashing into the outfield wall.  In a home game, Melky’s jersey would’ve caught the jetstream and he’d be somewhere in the South Bronx right now.

Coco Crisp – Left game with a sore shoulder too.  First you have Melky, now you have cereal.  Melky… Cereal, baby.  Melky… Cereal, baby.  What, you don’t listen to LL?

Brett Gardner – In place of Melky, 3 steals.  He ain’t taking no jive from no Western Union messenger!

Ryan Braun – Took a pitch from Adam Wainwright off his wrist.  Looks like he’ll be day-to-day.  Wainwright laughs manically and says, “You can call me, Painwrist.”  The Brewers tried to retaliate on Albert Pujols and he lined a double with his bicep.

Hanley Ramirez – Came out of the game with a tweaked groin.  Hanley was feeling a little less *pinkie to mouth* manly.

David Ortiz – Dropped to 6th in the order.  Solace for Ortiz owners who have seen the chances of an 0-for-5 decrease slightly.

Joey Votto - Welcome to our brand new game… Is he hitting a home run or is he dizzy?

Roy Oswalt – 6 IP, 4 ER and only has three decisions on the year to bring his record to 1-2.  Member those days when he’d win 20 games every year with crazy Win Karma?  Yeah, someone else might too, trade him to that person.

Edwin Jackson – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  I told you to pick him up after his first start of the year.  Cust kayin’.

Mark DeRosa – HR yesterday, 8 on the year.  .260/22 HRs.  What are DeRosa’s final numbers, Alex?

Zach Greinke – 9 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  We get it.  We’ve changed Greinke’d to Pwnson’d in the glossary.

Joe Blanton – 11 Ks?  Let me guess, the Marlins?

Livan Hernandez – Complete game win?  Let me guess, the Nationals?

Brad Lidge – Got his 9th save in a sticky situation.  Lidge is going to be given every opportunity to succeed, which means he may fail.  But he’ll have the chances.

Shane Victorino – 4-for-5, he’s actually been a bit light on the steals this year, but who doesn’t love The Flying Hawaiian?  Not me, friend.

Nolan Reimold – Now has 3 HRs in 46 ABs.  Could be this month’s Travis Snider.

Gary Sheffield – Hit his 5th homer.  I think he’s way too stubborn to play and not play well, but I also think he’s too old and broken down to stay healthy.  Doesn’t hurt to take a flier, just don’t drop anyone too valuable.

Jayson Nix – 2 HRs yesterday.  Whatever, can’t supplant Alexei now, sucka!

Nomar Garciaparra – Out again with a strained something-or-other.  Someone picked him up in one of my ‘pert leagues and I swear to you, I laughed out loud.

Jesus Guzman – Optioned back to beautiful, bustling Fresno.  This came just days after Bochy said he’d start over some schmohawk.  Ah, fantasy baseball… When your loved ones don’t stress you out enough.

Ian Snell – Threw a complete game!  Then again, it was rained out after 5 innings and he gave up 5 runs.

Troy Glaus – May not return this year.  No kidding?

Nick Blackburn – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Usually no Ks, no WHIP, no thank you.

Mark Reynolds – Hit his 13th homer.  Where ya at, Chris Davis?  At 12, after yesterday’s 2 homer game.  And at 61 and 67 Ks, respectively.  This race is way too close to call.

Chad Qualls – Sat in favor of Juan Gutierrez in a clear save situation after giving up runs in 3 of his last 4 outings.  We’re not reading into it, but in a way we are.  Read into that!

Andrew Bailey – Got the save about three weeks (estimate) after he was called the closer.   I’d own him, but it would sure be nice to see him again before the summer solstice. (No idea when this is, but it makes me sound smart when I say it.  Though not as smart when I point out I don’t know when it is.)

Bobby Jenks – Out with the flu as Linebrink got the save.  Can’t Matt Thornton blow his snot rockets at Bartolo Colon?

Bobby Abreu – Hit his 1st HR of the year.  Guess he shouldn’t have participated in that Winter League Home Run Derby.