Fantasy Baseball Advice

That’s a Fantasy Baseball Look at the signings or trades of Randy Wolf, Bobby Abreu, Aaron Heilman, Rich Hill, Andruw Jones and Ty Wiggington.  And, yes, I couldn’t resist the palindrome.  I’m real late to the discussion on some of these.  Not because I didn’t hear about them, but I just didn’t feel like they warranted immediate attention.  So here’s a fantasy baseball breakdown for these offseason signings and trades:

Ty Wiggington – Last year at 2nd base he was nice to have.  At 3rd base this year, he’s okay.  I’d slot him in between 21 and 25 on the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’d prefer to take a flier on someone like Gordon or Sandoval though if you’re that deep into the position.  This acquisition hurts Luke Scott’s value, but Luke Scott hurts Luke Scott’s value anyway.

Aaron Heilman -  So what do Dempster, Looper, Wainwright, Dennis Eckersley if you experience time in reverse, Lowe and Duchscherer have in common?  Guys that started as relievers and then found success as starters.  Check one for Heilman.  Quite a few of those guys weren’t that good as relievers.  A big, oversized second check for Heilman.  So for 2009 fantasy we expect the same from Heilman as we got last year from Dempster or Duchscherer?  Honestly, I wouldn’t expect the same from those guys in 2009, let alone from Heilman.  Though this whole moving a reliever to starter business does seem like an easy way to find a diamond in a ruff, at least in the short term.  I think in the long term it screws pitchers up by overextending them, making them risky pitchers.  Also, I’ve pretty much convinced myself that looking at Heilman’s reliever numbers mean very little.  Maybe some day Rudy will break down how these relievers move to the rotation with such great results.  What do I think it is?  Well, thanks for asking.  I think it’s part psychological.  They want to start and if they get the opportunity then they do everything to show they’re capable.  It’s part how few innings their arm has on it going into their inaugural season starting.  It’s part magic.  The only major drawback I see to Heilman is he battled some knee problems last year.  If he has more problems with his knee in 2009, then he might end up giving up home runs and being useless.  If he’s healthy, I like Aaron Heilman as a very late round 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Yup, I said it.  Finally.  Who knew I had so much to say about Heilman?  I sure didn’t when I started this treatise.  I should’ve done my thesis at the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston on Aaron Heilman.  Would’ve been a whole lot more productive than, “I Found My Thrill on Rich Hill.”

Rich Hill – Hey, wasn’t someone just talking about him?  You were, Grey. Ah, yes, thank you random italicized voice.  Fool me once and shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on me.  Fool me three times and I should start tattooing notes on my body.  If Hill’s in the rotation leaving Spring Training, he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues, but I wouldn’t start him against 70% of the AL teams.  So he’s risky to say the least.

Bobby Abreu – Nothing changes for Abreu with his move to the Angels, except maybe he’s now a lock for 20 steals whereas before he was a lock for 15 plus or minus 3.  I say he’s now a lock for 20 steals because the Angels love to steal.  They also don’t love to walk so it’ll be interesting to watch Abreu’s reaction on first base when Vladdy’s batting.  As Rex Hudler says, “From his head to his toes, that’s how Vladdy goes.”  Abreu should add about three minutes onto every Angels game.  Yay, more Rally Monkey.

Randy Wolf – Good K/9 rate makes him a solid late round flier in NL-Only leagues and a $1 auction buy.  Don’t expect the world, but 150 Ks and 4.50 ERA is in his wheelhouse.

Andruw Jones – In AL-Only leagues, I could see taking the flier on Andruw if he exits March with the center field job.  I would not expect a bounceback to former glory like Bret Michaels post-Rock of Love.  Andruw’s lost too much bat speed and gained too much girth.  BTW, isn’t it ironic that absolute locks for the Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones, both played center for the Braves at the height of their career?  It’s like rain on your wedding day, which is not really ironic.

If you do like moi (That’s French.  Face it, I’m cultured like yogurt.), you’ll avoid top level starters at your 2009 fantasy baseball draft and you’ll try to find value later on.  Hey, I really like Roy Oswalt! And I like Wandy Rodriguez, what’s it to ya, random italicized voice?  Last season, Wandy Rodriguez finally put together a season that hinted at his respectable minor league numbers and suggested he might be someone to look at late.  To stick with the French theme, let’s take out a scalpel and dissect this frog.  So could Wandy Rodriguez be a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

Last year, Wandy Rodriguez put up a very solid ERA of 3.54.  But, as some of us may know, you can put the value of ERA by itself as a predictor of future performance in one hand and crap in the other hand and tell me which one is heavier.  Better still Wandy’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 3.62, which was actually better than Oswalt’s.  Without sabering you to death as you try to understand what FIP means, it’s basically pitchers’ stats minus fielders.  Another great sign, Wandy’s K/9 ratios keep going up every year.   Last year, those rates were 8.58.  Also, he finally got his BB/9 below 3.  Then there’s the hitter’s park he plays his home games in that he’s completely neutralized with some serious home schooling. The one drawback on Wandy Rodriguez and why he may be falling in some drafts, he showed himself to be a bit injury prone last year as he battled a groin injury (ouch!) and an oblique injury (vague!).  But, really, that shouldn’t matter.  Wandy’s being drafted around some schmohawks as Armando Galarraga (blech!), Joe Blanton (blah!) and Jamie Moyer (barf!).  At that price, Wandy Rodriguez is a 2009 fantasy sleeper.

Could Jake Peavy really be a sleeper for 2009 fantasy baseball?  Um, kinda.  Sorry, that wasn’t normal confidence that one expects from an alumni of the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston who studied under Matthew Berry, D.F. (No, that’s not Dumb F—.)  I should be shouting from the rooftops that Peavy is a fantasy sleeper for 2009 if I really believe it.  Well, I do and I don’t.  I really believe Peavy is going to put up top starter numbers that could land him in the top five overall for fantasy value at the end of the year.  What I don’t believe is that he’s a sleeper.  How has this guy fallen to the fifth rounds of some 2009 drafts?  Is he suddenly a different pitcher in 2009 than he was going into 2008?  No.  So why is he dropping so low?

Cause people are acting like stewpid bizzlenitches.  People are jacking Tim Lincecum all over the place like he’s guaranteed to win another 18 games.  I mean, the Giants did get Renteria and all, but, seriously, WHAT THE EFF?  (Sorry for caps, but I’m slightly annoyed that I’m seeing Peavy going in the fifth round.)  This is not 2008.  We’re drafting for 2009.  Peavy can easily win 17 games in 2009 and Lincecum can win 12.  Not to mention, Lincecum’s innings were high last year.  Now, I’m not saying I’m down on Lincecum.  It’s an example, people.  Snap!  Get off my back or I will attack and you don’t want that.  You know what else could realistically happen?  Peavy gets traded to a pennant-chasing team and he gets even more opportunities for wins.  Oh, and I don’t buy that an exit from Petco will hurt his value very much at all, so don’t try to sell me on that As Seen On TV shizz, Snuggie.

Some may look at the injury Peavy dealt with in 2008 as a reason to lower him.  Let’s take a sip of the Kool-Aid from the half-filled cup, shall we?  The time Peavy missed last year allowed him to rest a bit more, saving some innings on his arm and now he can come back even stronger in 2009.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!  Jake Peavy may not be a sleeper in the traditonal sense, but he’s going lower than he should be in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts.

Dallas McPherson reminds a lot of myself, if I hit 42 home runs in my last year of Triple-A, or if I played in the minors or any sort of organized sport.  I was a city checkers champion in 6th grade. Cust kayin’.  Speaking of striking out, Dallas McPherson just struckout. And again. Whenever you’re reading this, there’s a good chance McPherson is striking out somewhere.  He’s like Mr. Furley in the Regal Beagle.  McPherson struckout 168 times last year in the minors.  That’s a lot.  I don’t know who holds the record for most strikeouts in a minor league season, because I’m too lazy to Google it, but I have to think McPherson challenged that record last year.  Remember they play less games in the minors.  168 is a lot of strikeouts.  A real lot.  He only played in 127 games.  He also walked a lot.  They call these players, Three True Outcome players, because there’s three possible outcomes when they come to bat, strikeout, walk or home run.  Okay, Alice Cooper, school’s out!  So why is Dallas McPherson is a fantasy sleeper for 2009?

Very few guys will give you the possibility of 30 home runs in the 20th round for your corner infidel.  Think about how huge this could be.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  You’re not thinking, you’re patronizing me.  Fine, I’ll continue anyway. Begrudingly.  Imagine you take Chone Figgins at 3rd — blech, I know, but bear with me — so now you have a major power outage from your 3rd baseman.  How do you make this up?  You grab McPherson real late.  Even in mixed leagues, McPherson should be drafted in the final rounds.  Some of the schmohawks that are being drafted around him are Bill “You Suck For Even Contemplating Drafting Me” Hall, Ronnie Belliard and Ty Wigginton.  None of those guys has the sweet, sweet upside of McPherson.  The Marlins GM has already said McPherson is penciled in at 3rd for 2009.  Pencils do have erasers, but unless something drastically changes, Dallas McPherson is going to be a solid fantasy sleeper for 2009.  If McPherson fails to land a full-time MLB job, he’s got a job waiting for him on one of T. Boone Pickens wind generator farms.