Fantasy Baseball Advice

Grady Sizemore had arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow back in September. It was deemed a success and here we are a little under ten weeks later and the team says he’s near 100%.  I’m not a doctor, but my first instincts are to say the team is lying.  That’s the way I like to lean.  A real skeptic.  What do you expect from someone with a mustache?  Have you ever met an optimistic mustachioed man?  Of course not, they’d shave if they were an optimist.  Crotchety, curmudgeony and other words found in a thesaurus.  Now even if the team is lying, it’s November and Sizemore is already “near 100%.”  I have to think that’s a lot better than the team lying that he’s “near 100%” in February.  Am I right or am I right-right or am I right-right-right?  Another positive thing to note, Sizemore had hernia surgery mid-September and he’s already running and working out in the Tribe’s spring complex.  So what can we expect of Grady Sizemore for 2010 fantasy baseball and is he a keeper?

After stealing 30+ bases for two straight years, Grady looked like Kendry Morales on the basepaths, stealing only 13 bases in 21 attempts.  There’s a reason for that.  He suffered the groin issue/sports hernia or groinia back in spring training of 2009, so naturally he wasn’t running like he used to.  Consider this, he still stole 13 bases with a groinia.  You wouldn’t even be able to open a jar of pickles.  With the problem corrected, he should steal at least 20 bases again.  Then consider the elbow problem he was dealing with for most of the season.  He still hit 18 homers with that.  The average was anemic at .248.  But he also dealt with some bad luck, so that should go back up to his career norms, think .270.  For 2010, I could see Sizemore giving a 110/27/80/.270/25 line with a chance for more and returning 2nd round value.  He is definitely a keeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.

Carlos Santana is getting a 2010 fantasy baseball rookie post because I know people will ask about him.  See, I’m psychic.  BTW, I wouldn’t bring in the mail today.  Just a bunch of bills and a 20% off coupon for Bed, Bath and Beyond.  Carlos Santana is the catcher prospect the Dodgers traded to the Indians for Casey Blake.  TMZ reported Jamie McCourt did the aforementioned trade because Carlos Santana looks eerily similar to Edward James Olmos, who was Frank McCourt’s reason for watching “every single, goddamn Miami Vice rerun.”  Only later did Mrs. McCourt find out that that was the wrong Carlos Santana.  At 23, Carlos Santana just finished up his best season in the minor leagues slashing .290/.413/.530 at Double-A.  Showing solid plate discipline, he walked more times than he struckout.  He knocked in 97 RBIs and hit 23 homers in 130 games and was named the 2009 Eastern League Most Valuable Player Award after winning the 2008 California League MVP.  (Scouting the Unknown went over Carlos Santana’s minor league numbers in further detail.)  So can Carlos Santana help you in 2010 fantasy baseball?

There’s no reason for the Indians to rush Santana.  His defense is shoddy with a chance of meatballs.  I don’t think we see him until June 1st at the earliest.  If he breaks camp with the team, he’ll be a quality sleeper in mixed leagues, 12 or deeper.  But really that’s only true because of his position.  If he were in the outfield, I’d tell you to ignore him in mixed leagues.  Best case scenario, 60/13/75/.280 in 400 at-bats.  Actually, now that I write that down, that seems pretty implausible.  (Sidenote:  As with most of these rookie posts, I wrote them about a month ago then reread them to make sure they’re still, ya know, gold.  Since I wrote this, Bill James’s projections have arrived.  He has Santana down for 16 homers in 500 at-bats.  Now that seems implausible.)  If Santana starts the year in the minors, he should be ignored in all leagues, except AL-Only and keeper ones.  In mixed leagues, you don’t want to hold an extra catcher for two months waiting for him to come up.  If you think you do, ask someone who drafted Matt Wieters last year.  Game, set, natch.

Last year, Brandon Allen treaded his six-two, two-hundred and thirty-five pound man-gams through Double- and Triple-A before hitting the majors in August.  And by hitting the majors, I don’t mean hitting in the majors.  As Lil Jon once said in grade school, I come correct with my prepositions, okaaaay!!!!!  In the minors in 2009, Allen slashed .298/.373/.503 with 20 homers, cutting his strikeout rate for the 2nd year in a row.  However, that didn’t carry over to the majors, whiffing 40 times in 104 at-bats.  Though, that was a small sample size… that’s what she said! (Stephen broke him down further in his Diamondbacks Prospect Review.)  For Brandon Allen to make an impact in 2010 fantasy baseball, he needs a spot to play.  Oh well, right?  Not so fast, Alex P. Keaton on speed.

What do Chad Tracy, Tony Clark, Conor Jackson, Josh Whitesell, Rusty Ryal and Chris Snyder have in common?  They suck.  They also played 1st base for the Diamondbacks at some point in 2009.  (Mark Reynolds played 28 games at 1st too, but I have it on good authority he wants to play 3rd… Actually, I don’t have it on any authority.  I’m educated-guessing here.  The Diamondbacks would be better with Reynolds at 3rd and Allen at 1st.)  So over the top rope comes the big-boned Brandon Allen.  He should get an ample opportunity in Spring Training to win the job.  If he can break camp with the Diamondbacks, he’ll be a solid sleeper for power in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper at a corner infidel spot.  In NL-Only leagues, he’ll be draftable as a sleeper 1st baseman.  He should provide power, if nothing else.  You’re looking at a 20 homer hitter with a chance for a bit more.  He’ll probably hurt you on average, but what else is new from a Diamondhack hitter?  Windmills were once used for pumping water through primitive irrigation systems.  Maybe the swings and misses are how the Diamondbacks keep the hot tub bubbling in the right field stands at Chase Field.

Last year, Desmond Jennings won the Rays Minor League Player of the Year honors.  In Double and Triple-A in 2009, Desmond Jennings had a slash line of .305/.391/.457 while chucking in 11 homers.  You might be thinking it was a slow year in the Rays organization.  Yeah, the opposite is true here, friend.  Jennings stole 52 bases.  (His minor league ups and downs were broken down further in a Scouting the Unknown in June.)  To recap, 11 homers and 52 steals.  HAVE MY CHILDREN!  Whoa, Mr. Caps Lock, get excited much?  YES!  Who are you, Desmond Jennings?  Carl Crawford?  They are both 6 ‘2″.  They both play center field.  Both have teen power and 50 steal base potential.  Yes, I have thousands of pictures of Jennings ready to go up on my bedroom walls.  So Jennings is a slam dunk for 2010 fantasy baseball, right?

The similarities are both his pluses and minuses.  If Crawford is in left field and Upton is in center, does Jennings play short center?   Few things can happen, Crawford gets moved so Jennings can do exactly the same thing in his stead.  Jennings gets held back in the minors because there’s no room right now for him.  Or the Rays go with the All-Drool outfield of Upton, Crawford and Jennings; I’m sure this is the option Rays pitchers want.  Now things don’t always work out, remember I was caca-cuckoo for Cameron Maybin in the preseason last year.  If Jennings gets the call to start in the beginning of the year, I’d own him in ten team mixed leagues.  Shoot, I’m ready to take him in NL-Only leagues for s’s and g’s.  If he gets the every day job, this won’t be the last you’ve heard of him.  He’s exactly the kind of rookie that can have an immediate impact for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Quick, somebody make Crawford glue, I have pictures to paste!

Sometime in 2009 it finally clicked in the collective Pirates brain that they needed to stop playing for now since they weren’t playing well for now anyway.  And with that kernel of “ah-ha,” the Pirates sent McLousy off the plank and ushered in Andrew McCutchen, The Dread Pirate.  The Dread Pirate proceeded to climb to the top of the sinking Pirate ship’s mast, tore a string from the Jolly Roger and swashbuckled his way into the hearts and minds of his fantasy owners and the seven Pirate season ticket holders.  Ahoy, Jonesy, drive me in after I steal this base. Gar.  And get me some mead, Ol’ Chumbucket! That’s you, Steven Pearce. You are Ol’ Chumbucket! Argh, don’t make me explain it. Yes, The Dread Pirate brought life where there wasn’t any for 2009, but what about in 2010 fantasy baseball, more of the same booty?

In 433 at-bats last year, McCutchen hit 12 homers with 22 steals while batting .286.  Below those numbers, we see a guy who consistently hits the ball on the ground more than in the air in 2009 and 2008 (in Triple-A, his GB vs. FB percentages were 49.4 vs. 32.2).  This is good for a guy who relies on his speed to get on base.  The power he showed last year may be slightly fluky.  After all, he did hit 8 homers in August, which seems extreme for him.  I.e., I wouldn’t expect a huge gain in homers in 2010.  Maybe 15 homers max.  His walk rate was a bit high last year, but he did show a good eye for when he should/should not swing.  With his speed and 15 homer power, he’s definitely a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper.  Think 80/14/65/.275/35.  For redraft leagues, The Dread Pirate can be someone who can provide more value than his draft spot, potentially taking a jump into the top 20 outfielders for 2010… Top 20 outfielders for 2010.  Aye, me parrot concurs.