Fantasy Baseball Advice

To protest a trade or not? Hmmm… How about, do you have a vagina or not? I keed. I’ve protested trades in the past, but I’m a convert. Now I believe everyone is entitled to manage their teams any way they’d like. If someone wants to trade Prince Fielder for Nomar, that should be protested, but only because the Fielder owner is obviously a drunk and needs a Dylan McKay-like intervention. But 99% of trades should be allowed with protests simply used to protect the integrity of a league. When someone makes a trade you don’t agree with, you can bitch and moan, but it’s their team. What else are you going to do? Tell them to drop Matt Morris for Scherzer? Tell them Cristian Guzman may not be the best utility guy? You can’t manage their team for them, so why should you be allowed to tell them who to trade?

I’ve never traded Asdrubal Cabrera for Matt Holliday to a foreign exchange student who thought fantasy baseball in some way involved girls. Yet I’ve been on the veto side of quite a few trades. It sucks, especially when you know you’re getting vetoed simply because you’re in first place and you’ve just made your team better with a completely fair trade. Last year when I got Reyes for Vlad, protest flags flew immediately. Was the trade in my favor? Well, I try not to do too many trades that aren’t, so, yeah. Was it completely lopsided and shouldn’t have been allowed? The guy needed an OF and I needed steals. When I traded Vlad, he had 11 home runs, 46 RBIs and was batting .355 through two months. Unfortunately (for the other guy), Vlad ended up hitting just 16 home runs the rest of the way, but that’s not my fault. That’s my good fortune. The trade went through and I won the league partly because of it.

In related news in the life of Grey (cuz you care!), there was a trade in my ‘pert league that sent Johan Santana to a team for Granderson and Ervin Santana. I was the first person to post a message on the board. I wrote, “Seriously? No… Wait. Seriously?” My “Seriously” soliloquy sparked a controversy, or I was simply the first person to see the trade and comment. Either way, the ‘perts came out blazing. I don’t think it’s my place to list the parties involved or what was said exactly, but I’ll give you the gist:

“This is collusion!”
“How dare you, sir? Collusion would take me actually knowing someone else in this league!”
“Collusion – delusion. It shouldn’t be allowed.”
“My good man, I made the trade and I think it’s fair.”
I chimed in again, “I just thought it was a bad trade on (the team owner who gave away Johan)’s part, but I never thought collusion. Honestly, I don’t even think there should be a protest option. If someone wants to do trade, they should be allowed.”
“Yeah, the trade sucks. But I guess there was no collusion.”
“Yeah, no collusion. Just a bad trade.”
“I still think the trade should be overruled because the trade sucks.”
This last part I will post directly what was written because it made me laugh, but I won’t mention the owner (but he’s free to chime in the comments). “I will weigh in a say that the trade is lopsided, but every deal is. Hey, if (the owner who got Johan) thinks he got a good deal and is happy with that crap for Johan Santana, then (the other owner) needs to be a car salesman! I’ll go on record right now and say Ervin Santana and Curtis Granderson are not going to be the answer (the new Granderson owner) is looking for. And, when it is all over, he will have traded the top pitcher in all of baseball for a SP with a 3-year average of a 4.84 ERA and a .263 OPP BA and a hitter that nets you about a .280/.344/.496 line with 35 steals. Hardly worth it! Oh, just because your child wants to walk into on coming traffic, doesn’t mean you let him for the betterment of society. Trades have a veto button for a reason. Most of the time people need to be protected from themselves more than they want to believe.”

So there’s the gist and a decent argument in favor of the protest button. I disagree with most protests (this crappy trade included), but there ya go. You can accuse us ‘perts of a lot of things, but dispassionate should not be one of them.

Brian Bannister sports a .86 ERA, a miniscule WHIP and three wins AND beat Francisco Liriano. Can this continue? His strikeout rate is pretty poor, but in one of the ten team mixed leagues I’m in, I picked up Bannister today. It’s a league of owners that are better friends than they are fantasy players. I don’t assume Bannister is still out there in many leagues, but for a few of those leagues where players aren’t quick to the waiver wire or with team owners who don’t pick up Royals because of what they have meant in the past, Bannister might be out there, I’d pick him up even in those shallow leagues. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Nick Markakis – I’ve been walking around my house screaming, “I am Markakis! No, I am Markakis!” for the last two weeks trying to spur him on to greatness. (My girlfriend has been thrilled.) Finally, he went yard. I hope this is the sparkakis he needs to go on a hot streak. He’s a notorious slow starter so if he can start hot this year, we could be in for a nice ride.

Francisco Liriano – Ah, the aforementioned Liriano. As I said on Friday, you should’ve traded him on Saturday.

Alex Gordon – I hope he reaches the 20/20 season I predicted because I have him in just about every league except for my NL-only ones (and don’t think I didn’t try and sneak him through).

Cliff Lee – I think he’s on Rudy’s list of players who should be Asian given their name. Anyway, pitched a great game against the woeful A’s. He has the Twins, Royals and Mariners up next. Two out of three on the woeful scale isn’t bad.

Jon Rauch – He’s great for K, Whip and ERA help so I wouldn’t drop him just because Cordero is back. (Because, frankly, I don’t know how long Cordero is going to be back.)

Joe Crede – Do I think Crede finishes the season with 184 homers and 377 RBIs? Maybe not, but he could hit three more homers this week then reverts to the Crede we know and hate. I’d pick him up until he reverts if you have room. You gotta ride hot streaks.

Wandy Rodriguez – I played the Wandy start at home/sit on the road game last year. It worked out well for me.

Burke Badenhop – I watched him play before I put in my claim. Saying he’s a poor man’s Derek Lowe, is an insult to poor men everywhere.

Shane Victorino – While I didn’t get him in any leagues this year, because he ended up going much higher than I would’ve paid for him, I still love The Flying Hawaiian™ and I hope he gets well soon. Meantime, put him on your DL. I hope Victorino doesn’t prove to be injury-prone his entire career because he’s beginning to seem that way.

Javier Vazquez – Man, the ’08 Tigers and ’27 Yankees comparisons ended real quick.

Franklin Gutierrez – No idea if he’ll ever get a chance to play again regularly after starting so slow, but if he does, I might go back for more pain. He’s talented and is only 25. As of right now, I’m done with anyone who regularly gets benched for Jason Michaels.

Johnny Cueto – Well, we all knew there would be some speed bumps, but Jason Bay? C’mon, your farkin’ initials are JC. Honestly, he walked one guy and had some balls up in the strike zone. I’ll take my chances if every pitcher on my staff gives up one walk against six strikeouts in six innings.

On each Friday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go.

Hey,

I’m in a 12 team 5×5 Roto League. I’d appreciate any advice you have on possible lineup moves to make to improve my team.

C- McCann
1B- Hafner
2B/OF- Upton
SS-Reyes
3B/OF-Braun
OF/1B-Berkman
OF- D.Young
OF- Victorino
OF-Dye
3B- Blaylock

SP-
Harang
Shields
Burnett
McGowan
Cueto
Greinke
Lilly

RP
Papelbon
Lyons
T.Pena
C.Cordero
Moylan

Also, surprisingly Matt Kemp was dropped in my league and i’ll put a claim in on him. who should I drop? (I was thinking Lilly)

Thanks. I love your site and look forward to your insight.

P.S. If I traded Papelbon give me a list of 5 hitters who would be great to get for him.

GREY’S ANSWER

Thanks for writing in and frequenting the site. You rock. First off, drop Lilly for Kemp, you’re going to need him for a few of these potential trades work. Okay, now your team looks solid. The only trouble areas I see are Blalock (CI), potentially D.Young and your closers after Papelbon aren’t great. With the setup men on your team, I’m going to assume you’re quick to get to the waiver wire. This will be key if you trade away Papelbon. You have lots of position flexibility so there’s lots of trades you can do, which is good.

First possible trade — Blalock is by far your weakest piece, move Berkman to corner and trade Blalock and Papelbon for a top outfielder. I’d target Carlos Lee or Adam Dunn packaged with a third tier closer (Soria, Capps or Isringhausen, etc). Don’t settle for less. Don’t go after Crawford. Your team already has enough speed.

Second possible trade — Trade Papelbon and Blalock for a top third basemen or first basemen. I’d shoot for Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Derrek Lee, Mark Teixeira, Aramis Ramirez or Garrett Atkins, in that order.  Don’t settle for anyone less than Atkins.

Third possible trade — Trade Papelbon, D. Young and Blalock for Matt Holliday and try to get a third tier closer thrown in (again Soria, Capps or Isringhausen, etc).

The options where you don’t get a third tier closer in return are the riskiest. If you don’t get that next setup man to become a closer, you might be scrambling for saves. But no risk, no reward. My favorite option that I’ve suggested is the third because it nets you the best player I’ve suggested. If you can get Holliday, move Berkman to corner, snag Kemp and hopefully get a Soria throw-in, your team will be golden.

On each friday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go.

Hey,
I got a huge trade offer. Someone offered me Utley, Oliver Perez and Aaron Rowand for Crawford, Isringhausen, and Sherrill. What should I do? Here is my roster.

Geovany Soto
(ChC – C)
Garrett Atkins
(Col – 1B,3B)
Ian Kinsler
(Tex – 2B)
Edwin Encarnación
(Cin – 3B)
Jimmy Rollins
(Phi – SS)
Álex Ríos
(Tor – OF)
Nick Markakis
(Bal – OF)
Corey Hart
(Mil – OF)
Carl Crawford (in UTIL slot)
(TB – OF)
Bobby Abreu (in UTIL slot)
(NYY – OF)
Chris Young
(SD – SP)
Tim Lincecum
(SF – SP)
James Shields
(TB – SP)
Jason Isringhausen
(StL – RP)
Joakim Soria
(KC – RP)
Heath Bell
(SD – RP)

Bench

George Sherrill
(Bal – RP)
Brian Wilson
(SF – RP)
Rafael Betancourt
(Cle – RP)
Ted Lilly
(ChC – SP)
Jair Jurrjens
(Atl – SP)
Huston Street
(Oak – RP)
Randy Wolf
(SD – SP)
Edison Vólquez
(Cin – SP)
Andy Sonnanstine
(TB – SP)
Wandy Rodríguez
(Hou – SP)
Ervin Santana
(LAA – SP)
Dana Eveland
(Oak – P)
Manny Parra
(Mil – RP)
Yovani Gallardo
(Mil – SP)

Rudy’s answer:
I’m assuming this is a 5×5 league w/ 8 to 10 teams.

Based on that, I see this as a two for three trade b/c Rowand is just a bench player. Utley‘s biggest plus is that he plays 2B but you’ve got Kinsler there and no MI slot in your league. You’ve got more than enough closers for the 3 spots so the relievers aren’t that important but you’ve got three starters better than Oliver Perez as well.

I’d say make the trade b/c your team looks stronger on SB vs. HR/RBI and Utley is an upgrade over Crawford. You’ve got a 4th OF in Abreu so you’re fine on OF depth. Oliver Perez is better than some of your bench starters and might pay off at some point (more than Sherrill will anyway…)

Hope this helps.

Grey’s answer:

Your team look pretty stacked as it is, but why not try and make it better, right? So, first off, Utley and Crawford are the top two dogs in the trade. From the looks of your team, you’ll be simply switching them out, since you don’t need a 2nd basemen or an outfielder. I really like Crawford this year. I think those people who are saying he’ll never see 25 home runs are neglecting he’s still only going to be 27 in 2008. There is a possibility he hits 25 home runs, and it could be this year. As for, Utley — Well, he’s better. He has hit 25 home runs already and will again. His projections are 120/32/115/.325/12. You will lose at least thirty steals going from Crawford to Utley, but you have a solid, well-rounded foundation. You can afford to take the hit in steals.

Then there’s Oliver Perez and the other schmohawk for Izzy (kinda crap) and Sherrill (extreme crap). Oliver Perez is the next best player in this trade, so you’re getting the top two players in this trade and you’re asking me if you should do it? I know, you’re worried you’re trading too many saves away. Well, Sherrill is good for nothing. I watched the Orioles the other day. They’re not winning 70 games. Sherrill will be lucky to get 25 saves and he’s never closed before, so he’s far from a sure thing. You’re not trading away Valverde at the beginning of last year here. Sherrill’s not going to come out of nowhere and save 45 games. As for Izzy, he’s a reliable closer who will probably chuck in 30-35 saves. So you lost about 55 saves in this trade, big whoop. You have a few closers and I think you’ll manage fine. If you need saves in July, you trade someone for a reliable closer. Oh, and drop Rowand and pick up Mota or Turnbow or Riske, one of them will be closing soon.

Hope this helps.

Hey,

Your fantasy baseball site is by far the best I’ve found on the web. Reading your blog posts over the past few months, I went from a college football fanatic who keeps an eye on the MLB and March Madness to a hopeless sports addict–now that I’m so into fantasy I have no offseason.

So as I’m sorta new to this, I have one question if you have the time. I’m in a 9-team Yahoo! money league with AVG, H, R, HR, RBI, SB, TB, XBH / W, L, K, SV, ERA, WHIP, CG, K/BB. I didn’t draft a pitcher until round 9. I’ll try to recall the rounds I got these guys, but I’m honestly very worried about my pitching. Would you recommend trading one of my higher round batters for a starter?

C Geovany Soto (18)
1B Mark Teixeira (3)
2B Chase Utley (2)
3B Aramis Ramirez (5)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (6)
OF Carlos Lee (4)
OF Matt Holliday (1)
OF Nick Markakis (7)
OF Adam Dunn (8) — wasn’t planned, just had to pick him up in 8
BN Matt Kemp (16)
BN Michael Bourn (19)
BN Alex Gordon (14)
BN Eugenio Velez (W)

SP Javier Vázquez (11)
SP James Shields (13)
SP Adam Wainwright (16)
SP Manny Parra (20)
SP Edison Vólquez (W)
RP Joe Nathan (9)
RP Francisco Cordero (15)
RP Chad Cordero (17)
DL John Lackey (10)
DL Yovani Gallardo (12)
DL Chris Carpenter (W)

Now that I write it out, it does look like I have a lot of pitchers, but 3 on the DL still makes ya frown. What’s the verdict?

Rudy’s answer:

Thanks for the kind words and frequenting our site.

The first thing we need to consider is your league – 9 team MLB with only 4 OF + no CI, MI, or UTIL. And 8 categories instead of the basic 5.

Having only 9 teams + less offensive slots means you can’t fool around with subpar performers. Factoring in that two of your three categories (TB, XBH) favor power hitters, the value of SB-dependent players like Michael Bourn drops greatly. I’d suggest a virtual punting of SB at this point and concentrate on the other 7 stats.

Your pitching has some promise – particularly the bullpen where you’ve got three of the potentially top 15 closers. Even in a 9 team league that’s good. As for your starters, if every team needs to have 5 starters, you’re talking about 45 starters in play. You’ve got 4 starters I’d put in the top 45 (add Gallardo to your top three) AND you don’t have a top 10 starter. You do have some promise in the young arms (Parra/Volquez) but young starters usually don’t pan out. (Note: I didn’t count Lackey as you have to assume right now he’s going to be out for the year – despite what the Angels are saying.

The players I’d look to trade are Dunn, Kemp, Bourn, Volquez, and Chad Cordero. I’d be targeting a top 12 starter. Here’s the top 12 based on our Point Shares projections:

Santana
Peavy
Webb
Beckett
Sabathia
Bedard
Smoltz
Hamels
Kazmir
Haren
Verlander
Harang

Look for the teams with 2-3 of these pitchers and try to grab one. I think an offer of Kemp/Dunn + Volquez would be tough to turn down. Dunn alone might be enough. If you’re getting misty about Volquez, note that he might strike out a lot but he walks a lot too so he’ll hurt your WHIP and K/BB ratios. Given the K/BB ratio, I’d also consider making a run for Ben Sheets who has awesome K/BB stats.

Hope this helps.