Fantasy Baseball Advice

Just to clear my head the other day, I threw on some bicycle shorts, jumped in my El Dorado and went for a spin.  Cause that’s how guys with a ’stache roll.  If you didn’t know, know you do.  Consider yourself informed.  As I was rocking out to some Don Henley, I was thinking back on some guys that helped me win leagues last year.  Xavier Nady –  Thanks, X-Man!  Jonathan Broxton, you da man!  All She Wants To Do Is Dance DANCE! Thanks, Jurrjens, we had some good times!  Hey, Jermaine Dye, I enjoyed your production!  Can’t feel the HEAT… Coming off the STREET… Hey, Jayson Nix– Actually, you weren’t much of a help.  Hey, someone dropped Jon Rauch, don’t mind if I do.  Why such a long face, Ubaldo Jimenez?  I’ll own you… In the non-biblical way!  She wants to party, she wants to GET DOWN! Having worked up a bit of an appetite for some meat, I pulled off the freeway in search of an Arby’s.  As I hit the side streets, I thought two things:  number one, I had no idea what waiver position I was in when I used it for any of those schmohawks.  Number two, why was I in Anaheim?

The preceding was a fancy way of saying, “USE YOUR WAIVER CLAIM!”  (Caps for emphasis and the people reading over your shoulder.)  Who gives an effin’ eff in the eff hole what waiver claim position you’re in?  While you’re holding onto your waiver claim like Cowboy Jon from The Real World: Los Angeles holds onto his virginity, your leaguemates are going to be winning your league.  Because, guess what, Maverick?  Cowboy Jon is still a virgin and he’s like 45!

You don’t want to be Cowboy Jon praying Matt Wieters comes up in June while you sit in 8th place not even needing a catcher.   Or are you holding your waiver claim because you’re afraid someone is going to drop Prince Fielder?  Who are you, John Q. Law?  This is your job, why?  Wait, even better.  If you’re in a league with a guy who wears fancy dungarees and who would drop Prince Fielder, you shouldn’t be in that league.   If you need a guy for your roster, then claim him.  While your leaguemates are waiting for someone they deem worthy of a pickup, you’ll be grabbing all kinds of other players that are immediately useful.  Remember…. Rebels been rebels since I don’t know WHEN… And all she wants to do is dance!

I put “Should I trade Frenchy?” into Google’s French translator. The translator steered me towards Kayak.com. So naturally, I flew to France. Stayed at a lovely hostel in the Arrondissement 4 right in the heart of the fabled Latin Quarter. The joie de vivre from the mix of students was intoxicating (and so was the wine!). When I asked a garçon at the local café about Francoeur, I talked in my worst French accent, but no strange, sideways looks. Locals embraced me and my American flag t-shirt. One Frenchman, who I asked about Francoeur, took me by the arm and whispered in my ear, “The answer is right under your nose.” I replied, “The only thing under my nose is your smell.” “No,” he explained, “The answer is in your heart.” I laughed and said, “Thank you, Yoda-like Frenchmen. Maybe when your daughter shaves her pits, we’ll meet again.” Arriving back in the States, I realized he was correct, the answer was right under my nose. I can’t find one single reason to not think Francoeur will turn around his early season power outage. So why can’t he? His BABIP is fine; Ks actually aren’t bad at all. Is he being more selective? Not really. But whatever, he never was. Is he still hitting doubles? Yup. Ground balls up? Well, they are literally up, as in his fly balls are okay. A compilation of expert projections has him hitting at least 22 more home runs. I think he gets 25 more. Since he currently sits at 3, that makes him a Buy guy. Like Sam Cooke said, “Change gonna come, nephew.” Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball hitters and pitchers to buy and sell:

BUY

Salomon Torres – My favorite to replace Gagne (BTW, put Gagne into French translator and it came back with, “Backne.” Weird!). Can he do the job? I’m not convinced but The Backne Situation™ could get worse before it gets better. If I were a betting man (and I am, just not on this particular situation), I’d say Backne gets 22 saves, Torres 12, Mota 3.

Dontrelle Willis – I liked him (very sorta, kinda, a little) coming into the season and soon he returns to the Tigers. There’s some value there. How much? Well, I’d drop a middle reliever for a flier on Willis, but not much more. I would not start him his first time out. Or second.

Ian Snell – I think his price has reached rock bottom by this point. I would definitely drop a marginal player on my team for him. I would also not start him the first time out. (And, yes, I do have a school girl crush on all NL starters.)

Juan Pierre – Okay, whose eyes just bugged out of their sockets? Yes, I’m telling you to buy Pierre. I think his value is way down and he’s still doing what you want from him. However, I would not give a lot.

Jermaine Dye – Someone dropped him in one of my ‘pert leagues last week. (I don’t understand it either.) So I picked him up and he’s hit three home runs in the last three days. Can Dye keep it up? Here, I’ll text you the answer: Y not?

Carlos Quentin – By this point, I don’t expect he’s available in any league, but even in shallow leagues he should be picked up.

Kevin Slowey – Yes, I like NL starters, but occasionally an AL-er sneaks through. Don’t drop anyone you’ll regret, but Slowey’s been a bit of a favorite of mine for a while. Last Triple-A season, he had a 107/18 K/BB ratio, that’s solid, ya’ll.

Ben Francisco – Has 15/15 upside, just needs the at-bats (like 500 of them), but he’s started off well, hitting seventh, second and fifth in the last three games respectively. He definitely will see at-bats against lefties, so in AL-Only leagues, he could be a platoon-mate for an outfielder.

Franklin Gutierrez – Honestly, I could put the entire Indians team, except Hafner, on the Buy list. They’re all underperforming.

Jason Giambi – He goes on streaks where he hits a few home runs and shows flashes of ‘roided Giambi.

Nick Swisher – I don’t think that highly of Swisher, but he’s not as bad as he’s been. Just keep expectations in line. Caveat emptor for those in Latin America. ¡Hola!

Ryan Howard – He will not hit .165 the rest of the season unless he gets traded to the Rockies and starts at shortstop and their Shortstop Injury Curse hits him.

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta will toil away/Until judgement day/You will be rewarded for the good things he did/Believe me every year/There is another one here/Don’t you see Iannetta used to be the new kid… (BTW, this reference was for maybe two readers. Don’t try and figure it out if you don’t get it. Just buy their new album next Tuesday. They’re much better than that crap movie, The Breakup, that they were featured in. Trust me.)

Dioner Navarro – He will never be spoken of again. Pick him up or not; it is after all your team.

Blake DeWitt – Elias Sports Bureau, in conjunction with Jayson Stark, announced that the third base situation for the Dodgers is the first time in the history of baseball that a guy (DeWitt) is blocking another guy (LaRoche) and they both have a capital letter three letters into their last names. (Actually, that’s completely fabricated by me, but it sounds like something the ESB would say. Here’s some more things recently overheard at the Elias Sports Bureau, “That is the first time in thirty years that someone has drank Tang at lunch while using a stapler.” “The parking lot has 17 empty spots for the first time since 2006.” “That is the first time Gary has ever said, ‘Excuse me,’ after burping.”  Anyway, DeWitt’s hot. You can do worse in all leagues. *cough* Longoria *cough*

SELL

Justin Verlander – See this morning’s post.

Tim Lincecum – Now, Papa Smurf, don’t comment later in the day that you traded Lincecum for Slowey, Giambi and box of Munchkin donuts. I like Munchkins as much as the next guy, but Lincecum is worth more than that. I’m only telling you to sell him because you probably could grab two top OFs with him. His BABIP actually tells us that he’s been unlucky, if you can believe that. So get what you need, but don’t sell him short. Stick to your guns with ‘cum! (That’s a line right out of “The Magnificent Semen,” a remake of the Japanese classic, “The Semen Samurai.”)

Chipper Jones – He’s having an unreal beginning to the season. But here’s what we know from past seasons, he’s still very injury-prone. If you can move him for Ryan Howard or Edwin Encarnacion and McClouth or… Well, you get the picture. When Chipper’s on the DL in a month, don’t forget you had an option to move him.

Rich Harden – Please trade him. I’m begging you. You have like a millisecond before the next injury comes.

Eric Hinske – These early season home runs are a nice story. (Actually, it’s not that nice… It’s not even really a story.) If you can drop Hinske for a worthwhile middle reliever, I would do it.

Mariano Rivera – I don’t think he starts throwing Livan Hernandez-type eephus pitches, but he’s just saves more or less. If someone in your league, thinks Ray’s Original Pizza is freakin’ awesome and tawks about their honeymoon to the Jersey Shore, then maybe you trade Mo to them.

And by breakdown I don’t mean of the crying variety with Zach Greinke suffering from an abulia. (Sorry, it was the Word of the Day.) My favorite fantasy baseball writer, Eric Karabell, did a breakdown of the Royals pitchers. (You can click that link but I think you need to be an ESPN Hindsighter™ to read it. And you thought they were for the populous. Well, they are, the paying-money populace. Don’t cha know, they’re owned by Disney. But I digress.) Within Karabell’s piece, he breaks down what he thinks of Gil Meche and Zach Greinke for this year in fantasy baseball. So what did Karabell say that sent me from scratching my head to banging it against the wall?

Karabaloney ranks Gil Meche ahead of Zach Greinke, saying this:

Meche is not off to the same start as last year, of course, when his April ERA was 2.18, and if you remove that month from his 2007 ledger, his final ERA jumps from 3.67 to 4. Maybe he is just average. Isn’t that OK? I have no problem that he is, because Meche is relatively safe at the back end of a fantasy rotation. He’s the most experienced pitcher on the Royals staff, about the only one capable of strikeouts….

Now before you argue with that, he preceded that by saying:

Look, I won’t listen to any arguments about the current statistics. It’s just too early.

Well, that squashes anything anyone could possibly say.  Anyway, what Karabaloney says about it being early is true. So that makes it surprising when he takes Greinke’s early season stats and uses them as fact.

Greinke’s problem could be strikeout rate. It wasn’t an issue a year ago…

Greinke’s strikeout rate is also after three outings?! How is okay to look at Meche and say, “Hey, it’s early. He’s gonna be just fine. I bet my ugly face on it.”

Over 1000 innings, Meche’s major league strikeout rate is 6.38. Just under 500 innings, Greinke’s K/9 is 6.41.  Sure, it’s a smaller sample size but he’s five years younger and he went caca-cuckoo for a year so there’s less miles on his arm. Last year Greinke’s rate was probably a little high because of a lot of it came in middle relief, so what’s fair to say about both of these guys? Both of their K/9 is close to 6. That means Meche is not the only pitcher capable of strikeouts.

Also, Meche will walk more hitters than Greinke. Maybe none of this means anything to Karabaloney, but Meche’s career WHIP is 1.41. Greinke is 1.37.  Now is Meche safer because of his track record? It makes him more predictable, and if we look at his track record, it makes him pretty bleh. On the other hand, Greinke has upside. Will Greinke be a top twenty pitcher at the end of 2008? No, probably not, but to say Meche is better is just stoopid. Now go get your shinebox!

Felix Hernandez looked dominant yesterday. Most impressive thing, eight strikeouts to one walk. Least impressive thing, it was against the A’s. Most reason for concern, he threw 115 pitches. He’s already complained of arm fatigue, why is he pitching the ninth inning? *cough* No bullpen. *cough* (Side note, I dropped Mark Lowe in one league for Brocail. More on Brocail later.) When Felix Hernandez got called up, people were saying he could be the best thing since naked Natalie Portman pictures, and he looked it in ‘05 at the age of 19. But then ‘06 happened and a few people fell off the bandwagon, then ‘07 happened and the bandwagon got derailed. Now it’s ‘08, (no shizz, right?) and Felix Hernandez doesn’t feel like the next big thing anymore. Well, guess what? He’s only 22. Here’s what I said in January when I placed him in my top twenty pitchers overall, “…He could shoot to the top five pitchers by as early as next year. This may be the last time you’ll be able to get him at a bargain for a decade.” And that’s me quoting me! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Jose Reyes – He loves to go on tears. Hold on, it’ll be a fun ride.

Josh Hamilton – It’s boring always being right, but I have him on a few teams too. I’m just hoping he doesn’t succumb to the allure of crack in May. Just Say No! (Or get injured.)

Rafael Furcal – 4 for 4 with a home run. He’s been looking like a great bounce back candidate since February. If someone in your league doesn’t know it, they do now.

A.J. Burnett – Yes, that was him in the 14th inning. Good idea to throw the injury-prone guy out there.

Jason Botts – I’d love to see him get some starts. Might be a good platoon mate when the Rangers are playing lefties at home. Cust kayin’.

Hank Blalock – (Lots of  Rangers news, right?) He’s day-to-day with a sore back. That means a 15-day DL stint that turns to 60-day then he gets mono from Casey Kotchman.

Jason Isringhausen – Struggled to get the save. He’d have to be injured to lose the job. Trade for him.

Jose Valverde – Later today you’ll be getting a closer report, let’s just say Brocail was picked up by me in three leagues last night. Valverde was NOT good before last year.

Carlos Gomez – If you have Miguel Cabrera at third and Helton at first and really need steals, here you are.

Carl Crawford – I believe he gets to 25 home runs this year.

Josh Fogg – What a Razztastic that start was. I jumped down 6 points in the standings. (Farkin’ Mark Redman messed up my perfect day.) Unfortunately, with the shizz Fogg threw up there, Homer Bailey (who’s been outstanding in the minors) might be getting the call soon. I know, that’s not unfortunate for a lot of you.

C.C. Sabathia – Okay, this is purely conjecture, and I welcome others thoughts on this, but ‘member how he threw something like 657 innings last year including the playoffs? I know his velocity has been fine, could there be some residual tiredness thing going on? Not sure, but feel free to CC me your thoughts.

Ok, I wasn’t going to report this until a month in, but since Rudy decided it was time, it’s time. As you can see from the league, through two weeks, I’m more ‘pert than some, and less ‘pert than two. What can we take away from my two weeks of league ‘perting? Well, I told ya’ll not to draft pitching too high and I didn’t. My top pitcher was Aaron Harang and I didn’t draft him until the 73rd pick and my second pitcher off the board was Rich Hill at 103. So you figure my pitching’s in the crapper, right? Out of a possible 75 points, I have 47.5 points. Dang, maybe you don’t need to draft pitching early. Anyway, here’s the pretty pictures of my league. I suggest you click on them and bask in my short-lived glory. The second picture is my “crappy” pitching staff. Actually, with the loss of Rich Hill recently, I shouldn’t put crappy in quotes, I may be playing with my back against the wall in these next couple of weeks. Hopefully, Shawn Hill can return shortly and pitch as well as I think he can. BTW, I must be the only one interested in Shawn Hill in my league because I picked him off waivers, then dropped him for Speier last week, only to pick Hill up again when I re-dropped Speier. As I said in the beginning of the year, don’t hold your waiver wire pick. Just use it and use it. Well, without further ado, as if there hasn’t been enough ado.