Fantasy Baseball Advice

Just to clear my head the other day, I threw on some bicycle shorts, jumped in my El Dorado and went for a spin.  Cause that’s how guys with a ‘stache roll.  If you didn’t know, now you do.  Consider yourself informed.  As I was rocking out to some Don Henley, I was thinking back on some guys that helped me win leagues last year.  Ryan Madson –  Thanks, Mad-Man!  Morse, you dot-dot-dashing hunk!  All She Wants To Do Is Dance DANCE!  Thanks, Hardy, we had some good times solving the mysteries of fantasy baseball!  Hey, Motte, how’s dem apples?!  Can’t feel the HEAT… Coming off the STREET… Hey, Brandon Allen– Actually, you weren’t much of a help.  Having worked up a bit of an appetite for some roast beef, I pulled off the freeway in search of an Arby’s.  As I hit the side streets, I thought two things:  number one, I had no idea what waiver position I was in when I used it for any of those schmohawks.  Number two, why was I in Anaheim?

The preceding was a fancy way of saying, “USE YOUR WAIVER CLAIM!”  (Caps for emphasis and the people reading over your shoulder.)  Who gives an effin’ eff in the eff hole what waiver claim position you’re in?  While you’re holding onto your waiver claim like Cowboy Jon from The Real World: Los Angeles holds onto his virginity, your leaguemates are going to be winning your league.  Because, guess what, Maverick?  Cowboy Jon is still a virgin and he’s like 58 years old!

Hey, someone dropped Henry Rodriguez, don’t mind if I do!  Why such a long face, Chris Perez?  I’ll own you… In the non-biblical way!  She wants to party, she wants to GET DOWN!

You don’t want to be Cowboy Jon praying Mike Trout comes up in June while you sit in 8th place not even needing an outfielder.   Or are you holding your waiver claim because you’re afraid someone is going to drop Prince Fielder?  Who are you, John Q. Law?  This is your job why?  Wait, even better.  If you’re in a league with a guy who wears fancy dungarees and who would drop Prince Fielder, you shouldn’t be in that league.   If you need a guy for your roster, then claim him.  While your leaguemates are waiting for someone they deem worthy of a pickup, you’ll be grabbing all kinds of other players that are immediately useful.  Remember…. Rebels been rebels since I don’t know WHEN… And all she wants to do is dance!

I’m going to talk about seemingly the most derisive topic since we had to choose a side on ‘great taste’ or ‘less filling’ for Miller Lite.  I’m gonna speak about average, or ‘how many hits a player gets divided by their true at-bats which excludes their walks, sac flies, sac bunts, and HBP’ for all of you who need things spelled out.  So let’s get one thing clear: your entire team does not need to hit .300 unless you’re playing in a 1 team league.  Looking over at this Razzball link, we can see that your team needs to hit anywhere between .265 and .270 to be successful for the year.  For all you guys and 4 girl readers out there, that equates to about 26.5/27 hits per 100 ABs.  We’re not talking large numbers here, but if you want to, we could by adding a couple of zeros on the end.  It doesn’t really change the topic, but feel free to.  For a little experiment on how this works, I’m going to review my deep league thoughts columns (search Razzball for them by ‘Deep League Thoughts’ if you’d like to read them.  Yeah, I just whored myself a bit) and my perfect team in which I have to start 2 at every position.  When I’m non-specific about a target – such as in the 1B post – I’ll take the lowest average estimated player to further prove my point.  Don’t hate me if I’m right and all you see is the inside of my nose as I look down on you; it’s only because I’m quite tall.  Now since I have to pick one source for my numbers, I’ll be using Bill James’ 2012 projections.  Though my league also includes two UTIL slots, I didn’t include it in my series seeing as it can be filled with any position so I won’t include them in the stats.  If I had, I might’ve filled them with guys who hit for high average just to make you happy.  I’m just that giving!  See you in about 18 cell rows:

The best team in a standard 12 team ESPN league – which is about as close to the league I’m describing is going to come – is hitting one point higher than me.  Or at least I thought they were until I noticed the part where Grey says ‘These are all for one catcher leagues.  If you have two catcher leagues, the counting stats go up a little bit and down a little on average.’  And that’s me quoting Grey, mimicking his ‘that’s me quoting me’ quoting style with bold italics for emphasis!  To keep with the Q theme, it looks like our average met our quota.  In fact, when you consider this team essentially rosters 2 more hitters than a standard ESPN league, this team might be ahead of the curve at this point.  If you’re wondering about the counting stats and how they line up because you REALLY don’t like that this crazy idea just might work, I’ll save you the math trouble.  Based on projections, this team is going to be at or above league average in runs (1191 vs 1045), RBIs (1195 vs 1008) and HRs (360 vs 261).  The only category we’re lacking in is stolen bases as we estimate to get about 145 vs the need for 186.  Considering the leg up we have on the other categories, we get to trade from strength or be ready for when SAGNOF is coming to town.

Just to make sure you don’t think of me as some crazy, calculating genius who sits down and does this before I draft, realize I just did the math this morning as I typed this article.  I’m not saying that because I’m flippant about who and what I post about.  I did it since I knew the title of this article was ‘It All AVGs Out’ and guess what…it usually does and it did!  The moral of this story is don’t read a fantasy baseball blog if you’re looking for a story with morals…wait, that’s not it!  It should be ‘Don’t let your team become average just to avoid having a bad one.’

First off, you can thank Keanu Reeves for the idea of this post.  I somehow watched the entirety of Little Buddha a long time ago and one line truly comes back to me from that movie over and over again when I begin ranking players for myself or trying to find value in drafts or in trade targets: The path is in the middle way.  The line can be seen at about the 3:00 mark here in all it’s hairy, emaciated Keanu glory.  It’s a reminder that baseball, much like life, takes a long time to play out.  A player isn’t proven bad or good by a week, a month, or even a year of play.  Underlying skill sets can be reached or breached to the over or under but it still does not change the underlying player themselves.  Now snatch these pebbles from my hand, young grasshopper and we’ll begin the article…no I said from my hand, grasshopper.  Unless of course I’ve somehow stumbled into the doctor’s office and need to turn my head and cough.  If so, my insurance better cover this.  Cue abrupt and awkward segue!

To delve into this philosophy, let’s look at a career .258 hitter in Dan Uggla.  Despite hitting 31 HRs in 2009, he only hit .243 which had a drastic effect on his 2010 draft position.  Uggla was actually going outside of the top 100 on ESPN’s player rater and ranking 12th among second baseman behind such 2B studs as Asdrubal Cabrera (before he’d ever hit more than 10 HRs in a season) and Aaron Hill (who has pretty much done nothing since his 2009 explosion).    Uggla went on to post a career high in average at .287 to go with 33 HRs and 105 RBIs in 2010.  You can guess what that did to his rankings.  He was going in the 3rd round and was being ranked higher than Ian Kinsler.  Uggla went on to have the lowest BA of his career in 2011.  <sidebar> It was extremely hard to dig up that old info and I usually had to pull it from other websites referencing their rankings.  It’s like ESPN doesn’t want you to know how badly they rank guys season to season.  Meanwhile, Grey’s rankings are out there for the world to see from year to year.  Funny that. <sidebar/end>

The whole point of that blast from fantasy baseball years past was to point out Uggla is who he is and has always been, regardless of what the numbers tell you.  Guess what his average has been since the start of 2009?  No, it hasn’t been .258, that just would’ve been so creepily perfect to the point that it was a lie.  It’s been about .254, in line with his career average.  He’s going in the 5th round or close to Brandon Phillips at this point.  It still leaves him underrated for 2012 in my book, but is a lot more reasonable than taking him ahead of Kinsler or outside the top 100.  If people had chosen the path of the middle way, there wouldn’t be a slice of unbridled enthusiasm for a good average to go between two pieces of pandemonium over a bad average and I wouldn’t be serving you this extremely messy allegory sandwich (with a hint of Wyld Stallyns).  Holding this in mind stops you from buying into ‘Joe Mauer in the first round’ hype in 2010 or sleeping on Matt Kemp in 2011.  Aiming for the middle way makes it easier to know a true value play when you see it, whether it’s via trade or in the draft and keeps you from going all Dennis Green on yourself.  Most times, a player is who you thought they were.  Draft and trade accordingly.  Or crown your ass.  Your choice.

Sure, you can draft Paul Konerko, A-Rod and C.J. Wilson with your 4th through 6th picks in your fantasy baseball draft.  Nothing wrong with that.  Don’t furrow your brow.  There’s no reason to, concerned Razzball reader.  We’re friends, you don’t have to hide the last of the milk because you don’t want me to finish it.  I will save you some.  You can even draft Michael Cuddyer.  It’s all good in the ‘hood.  I won’t even mock you for making a Sh*t People Somewhere Say video.  You’re a Youtuber, which is not related to a potato.  That’s cool.  Or s’cool, if you’re in a rush.  What I’m here to tell you is there’s nothing wrong with reaching for a sexy name.  It’s an often accidental draft strategy that I haven’t seen verbalized on virtual paper before.  Who do I mean by a sexy name?  You know them.  Everyone knows them.  Everyone wants one.  A Desmond Jennings, Brett Lawrie, Starlin Castro or Strasburg, for instance.  Or 4 instance, if you’re a 14-year-old girl texting.  These players are the earth’s answer to pollution.  Congress recently passed a bill calling for every household that earned less than $50,000 to get their very own Brett Lawrie.  Why is this a fantasy baseball strategy at all?  What an excellent question to clumsily move into the 2nd paragraph!

The answer is hidden in the lede.  Everyone wants one.  That’s all you need to know.  Why follow the herds in this case?  Easy, your team may end up deficient in one way or another.  If you have Konerko, A-Rod and C.J. Wilson, you may be just fine, but once you leave the draft, no one’s going to be clamoring for any of them.  Now if you put Strasburg on the market, you’ll be able to acquire more than his value.  Same goes for other sexy names.  Right now, Michael Young is being drafted right before Pablo Sandoval.  Who’s sexier?  Sandoval, with or without a training bra.  Mike Stanton or Matt Holliday?  Typing Stanton’s name nearly gives me a semi that’s how sexy he is.  Doesn’t only go for top guys.  I like Vernon Wells this year, but him or Colby Rasmus?  It’s not even close who’s sexier.  Derek Holland is gaining traction to be sexy.  There’s even sexy names amongst relievers.  Kenley Jansen is a lot sexier than Chris Perez, even though they have virtually the same ADP and one is guaranteed saves and one is battling Mattingly’s common sense to get saves. (If Mattingly still had his mustache, Jansen would’ve been named the closer while Mattingly slept off a hangover.)  Jesus Montero’s sexy for Jews and gentiles.  What your team needs may not always be what you draft.  If you feel you’re power light, you may draft a flyer in Kenley just because you know his trade value will be higher if he sneaks into saves, than just grabbing a 6th starter in, say, John Danks.  Keep in the back of your mind how a sexy name can gloss over your opponents’ eyes in later negotiations.  It reminds me of the Beautiful Girls quote, “A beautiful girl can make you dizzy, like you’ve been drinking Jack and Coke all morning. She can make you feel high full of the single greatest commodity known to man – promise. Promise of a better day. Promise of a greater hope. Promise of a new tomorrow. This particular aura can be found in the gait of a beautiful girl. In her smile, in her soul, the way she makes every rotten little thing about life seem like it’s going to be okay. The supermodels, Willy? That’s all they are. Bottled promise. Scenes from a brand new day. Hope dancing in stiletto heels.”  Desmond Jennings is hope dancing in stiletto heels.

Yes, that’s a fantastic neck curtain I’m rockin’. Besides the point. Don’t stare. What this IS is (who you callin’ stutterer?) an attempt to translate some nerd speak into some useful fantasy baseball draft strategy.

More statistically-inclined minds than my own (mainly a guy with the handle “matthan” at DRaysBay) have figured out a pretty reliable way to calculate expected Ks from pitchers. “Tell us something we don’t know, Dick Anderson.” Okay, how about the coefficient of determination for this particular model is over 90%? *crickets* Considering most number crunchers take 70% and like it, 90% is like jumping-a-dead-battery-with-aspirin-and-chocolate useful. Oh, and it’s reliable like that down to 30 IP. That’s door-breaching-charge-out-of-steel-wool-and-a-fountain-pen exciting!

Here’s the formula: eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

So why aren’t we reading about this magical formula all over the place? Well, it’s a trip to the dentist to compile the holey data and it uses wisps of cotton-candy-fuzzy math. Regardless, it’s fairly reliable if you floss through it and definitely useful despite the caveats. Having said that, I now say it’s crazy talk to produce something this potentially powerful, then shelve it. That’s like developing an armor-piercing laser, but scrapping it because it’s a smidgen inaccurate and only works a good chunk of the time. There’s still potential for making some big holes in stuff here!

I admit, I do possess some nerd genes and I’ve read through the boring stuff. That doesn’t mean YOU (yeah, you too, I suppose) should have to though, loyal Razzball readers. So what do we do with it then? For one, we can look at actual Ks from pitchers in 2011 vs. their expected Ks based on this formula. That ought to help tell us, in part, who was sandbaggin’ and who was overachievin’. I’ve arranged the numbers so positive is positive and negative is negative (fancy that). I’ve cherry picked players I wanted to highlight and to avoid some of the stat goofs. If you want to check out any others, you can sift through all the source data like I did. I’ve shown my work on a separate sheet, just like in math class.

This part is obligatory, really boring stuff. If you just want to get to the the T & A, skip this section. Just don’t ask questions that are answered here, because then you’ll be “that guy”.

A few players showed up one one set of source data and not the other, or repeated exactly within the same source data, so I’ve eliminated those.
Lists only include players who had 30+ IP for one specific team, not over several teams combined.
A few SP show up on the list multiple times due to having 30+ IP for multiple teams.
Data is split between SP and RP, so players should only be credited with stats for one role or the other per each list, respectively.
Some of the data is skewed by differences in pitch counts, spot starts by RP, relief appearances by SP, trades, and/or other statistical errors between sources.
References:
FanGraphs
Stat Corner
DRaysBay

If you’d like to peruse the data for your favorite players, check out the full document here and comment below with questions. Thanks for reading!

SP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Randall Delgado – 18.0 / 12.2 / 5.8
He represents the biggest difference, postive or negative. Control remained an issue and he was pretty lucky with a .220 BABIP and 86.5 LOB%. However, if he can manage to tack down more first pitch strikes and harness some BBs, he could rein in even more upside. He and everybody else… If he ends up in the majors over Minor/Teheran, I certainly wouldn’t expect a Beachy-like season. I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Minor’s-minors-like season either.

Guillermo Moscoso – 17.9 / 13.9 / 4.0
He should have had enough Ks to place him slightly below the league average 7.13 K/9. However, he was fortunate hitters made enough bad contact (79.1 O-Contact%) to get themselves out when his control lapsed. There’s enough downside to spoil any upside, and the move to Coors won’t help. In the interest of manipulating time and space, let’s just pretend most of these schmohawks are invisible. Collmenter to Vargas: “Hey, can you believe that sh…”

Phil Hughes – 17.8 / 14.2 / 3.6
If you’re reading this (skimming counts), chances are you’ve been burned by Hughes at some point in your fantasy career. He dealt with injury and “hittability” last year, but showed flickers of that sweet, sweet flame. Sure there’s reason for concern, but he’s only 25 and here’s one more reason for optimism. There’s reasoning for ya. If he’s traded or somehow ends up Yanked back into the rotation despite the acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda, keep the fire burning.

Shaun Marcum – 21.9 / 19.2 / 2.7
2.7% doesn’t sound like a whole lot, does it? However, at 200 IP and 823 batters faced, “U” should’ve been looking at about +20 K and +1 K/9. Yeah, Grey probably had good reason to like him so much. There isn’t much NOT to like about his numbers, so Marcum down for improvement.

Doug Fister – 17.4 / 14.8 / 2.6 (SEA), 20.8 / 20.9 / -0.1 (DET)
And here you thought Fister was fun to mention before? It looks like he had potential to get more guys to swing & miss, it just took the move to Detroit for him to capitalize more, and then some more on top of that. He’s likely to regress a little and his 17.2% slider usage might land him at the bottom fringe of Rudy’s Top 20 Risky Pitchers For 2012 list, but some of his stuff is legit. Welcome, fister+bottom+stuff Googlers!

Edinson Volquez – 23.8 / 21.3 / 2.5
Yes, he strikes dudes out. Yes, he walks them too. Yes, his consistent velocity and plate discipline, absurd 20.7 HR/FB%, and 1st inning ineptitude tell me some of his struggles were fluky. Yes, he will get less run support in SD. Yes, PETCO should help. Yes, he could pull a post-Dusty Harang-ment. Yes, I’m telling you to keep at least a lazy eye on him.

Jake Peavy – 21.6 / 19.3 / 2.3
Though some of his metrics looked like imperials and vice versa, there appears to be a millibigass (that’s a thousandth of a bigass) light at the end of the tunnel. But… and that’s a badonkadonkeykong-sized but… he needs to stay healthy long enough to get his conversion tables sorted out. Sometimes you don’t need standardized OR fanciful measurements to tell you what you should already know.

Jeremy Hellickson – 17.3 / 15.1 / 2.2
Bad news is, his K/9 was only 5.57. Good news is, it should have been about 6.4. “Wait, that’s good news?” Bad news is, his ERA/WHIP were artificially low. Good news is, the extra Ks should balance those out somewhat. “Some what?” Bad news is, he fits the risky pitcher bill. Bad news is, he’ll cost too much come draft time, regardless. “But…”. Yeah, I know good news was supposed to come next.

Danny Duffy – 20.6 / 18.4 / 2.2
On the other hand, I’m hoping this dude eventually ends up back in the rotation since he’s poised for a rebound. He’d been blowing everyone away up until his MLB debut (say that five times fast), and I don’t envision Duffman totally switching from blow to suck. Duff just didn’t trust his stuff. Know who else has had issues with nerves? His name rhymes with slinky… “Ohhh, yeahhh!”

Dan Haren – 22.0 / 20.1 / 1.9
Hairy Dan’s ratios got a little trim from a lower than normal HR/FB rate and BABIP, but his Ks should have been a little fuller. Ironically, his increased cutter use (+20.5% vs. 2010!) seems to be working, as his O-Swing% and O-Contact% go up as his Zone% goes down. All in all, y’all, he ought to retain comparable value. Did I get that “y’all” right, y’all?

Scott Baker – 24.2 / 22.3 / 1.9
Similarly, Baker’s Ks should’ve continued to rise while his ratios collapsed to an extent. Yep, even past his career high 8.22 K/9. It’s hard to put a finger on what exactly his secret ingredient was, but the measurements support it. He’s someone I would not sleep on in 2012, lest you get burned… or accused of assault. Don’t stand so close to me, space invader.

John Danks – 20.2 / 18.5 / 1.7
Danks refined his cutter to a lesser extent than Haren, but he also got more aggressive at pounding the zone and was actually a bit unlucky. There’s every reason to expect him to see both a bump in Ks AND a reduction in his ratios. It could have been more than a little if he’d been dealt, but Danks don’t stank.

There we have it, a Scott Baker dozen. There are about three times as many SP Sandbaggers than Overachievers (nope, no idea why and not too worried about it), so it’s time to move on before we get too bogged down in this shizzpile.

SP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Clayton Kershaw – 24.7 / 27.2 / -2.7
Here I figured the opposite of Marcum was Mucram… CK won the CY, and deservedly so, but would he have won it with 23 less Ks and .9 less K/9? Probably. Just consider this gap, a smidgen of good fortune and his 25.5% slider use before you start wearing his cologne and get all reachy, reachy for him.

Zack Greinke – 26.1 / 28.1 / -2.0
Knocking his K/9 down to 9.8 from 10.5 isn’t a big deal in the context of a 7.96 career rate. He’s suffered bad luck from various sources the last two seasons, so there’s a chance his ratios rebound some too. However, his F-Strike% and Zone% dropped 2% and 7.5% during that time and a move to the NL. His stuff has bumped his O-Swing 5.1% to compensate, but reading between the percent signs, it might be more than nerves. My gut tells me not to invest too heavily for 2012. If you hear my gut too, hand me the Cracker Jack, will ya?

Ubaldo Jimenez -  – 20.3 / 22.2 / -1.9 (COL), 19.8 / 21.4 / -1.6 (CLE)
He was a bit less than fortunate both in COL and CLE, so his ratios should trend up. However, his velocity went down along with his GB%, F-Strike% and SwStr%. In short, I’m not expecting massive regrowth. Count on Big Jim too much and you could very well end up spending 2012 pulling out your hair, wondering “Why, Ubaldo?!”

Cliff Lee – 24.5 / 25.9 / -1.4
It’s like a freakin’ barbershop with all these cutters cropping up… er… down. The Adverb still would have bested his previous career high K/9 rate with about 10 less Ks and he’s capable of producing similar, though probab-Lee slight-Lee less spectacular numbers again. Of course, investing too much into last years numbers could easi-Lee end like another crusade for eternal youth; poor-Lee.

Next time, I’ll go over the relievers that should see an increase or decrease in Ks.  Until then, I will comb my mullet.