Here at Razzball, besides doling out fantasy baseball advice, we also host a contest to field the worst fantasy baseball team. The worst fantasy baseball league signups are just about at capacity, but if you’re finding us late in the preseason, you might still be able to get in, or not. I really have no idea. That’s Rudy’s department. But I’m in one of these leagues, so I thought I’d share with you my fantasy baseball worst top 20 list. When I did my worst fantasy baseball rankings, it took far longer than for my other leagues. You literally have to change every single default ranking (except Howie Kendrick who was about 150 regularly and turned out to be about the same after reranking– there’s always one, I tell ya!). Just a few words about these schmohawks, catchers are all bad, excluding about 5 guys, so there’s no reason to grab a catcher early. But, even with that said, I couldn’t lower Kendall past 10th overall. He’s just too awfully good. Also, there were no pitchers in my top 75. Again, there are so many terribly terrific pitchers, it was hard to move Carlos Silva up. Though, I really wanted to. Finally, just because someone is in my best worst fantasy baseball top 20, it doesn’t mean I absolutely hate them. Steals aren’t counted, so Bourn, Taveras, etc. are invaluably bad. Anyway, here’s my fantasy baseball worst top 20:
While we at Razzball are content toiling within the modest confines of fantasy baseball blogdom, we occasionally like to flex our journalistic muscles and take on a challenging interview.
Our interview subject is Matthew Berry - the Director of Fantasy Sports at ESPN. His career has taken him from stand-up comedy to Hollywood where he paid his dues with writing gigs like Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles which was up for a 2001 Razzie (unaffiliated to Razzball) as Worst Remake or Sequel but lost to Planet of the Apes. He followed his passion of fantasy baseball and wrote for Rotoworld before starting his own fantasy blog TalentedMrRoto.com that was purchased by ESPN in 2007.
Last note – unlike our interviews to date (see Spike Lee, Sarah Palin, and Rickey Henderson), this interview was real. ESPN is pimping their Fantasy Baseball folks on a PR junket and asked us to conduct this interview….the site that brought you Hater Bell….. When we asked Matthew Berry towards the end of the interview why us? He seemed as puzzled as anyone….go figure.
GREY:First off, thanks for A’ing our Q’s, mucho appreciado Senor Fruitazi. You’re a good sport since a lot of the time, like a blogger Luke Skywalker would say, You Are My Fodder. I started Razzball when I was laid off during the WGA strike and I know you’re also a screenwriter or were or whatever, so I just want to say thanks for paving the way for me to go from an underappreciated, society misfit to an underpaid, society misfit. You’re the wind beneath my wings!
Okay, brownnosing aside, I know how hard it is to do fantasy baseball rankings. You really can’t please everybody all the time. With that said, WHAT WERE YOU THINKING, MAN?! I put Dustin Pedroia, Josh Hamilton and Cliff Lee in our 2009 Fantasy overrated category. But your rankings have a vibe of “What was good last year is a tasty nugget to covet this year.” Defend these three or quit your post at ESPN and move to Cape Horn.
MATTHEW BERRY: Cliff Lee developed a new pitch last year so I don’t think he’s necessarily in for a regression to ‘before last year.’ Hamilton stayed healthy and…he’s in Texas. This makes Hamilton valuable. Pedroia’s my biggest question mark. Is his power for real? If it is, then he could be very valuable.
GREY: When anyone mentions closers on Razzball, I point them to our Fantasy Baseball Glossary entry for SAGNOF — Saves Ain’t Got No Face. Double negative aside, you know you want to agree with me. So… Go ahead.
MATTHEW BERRY: I’ve said forever that you don’t pay for saves. So… Um… Yes, I agree with that. There’s very few closers out that I think are rock solid this year. I count 8 coming into the season where you’re like, “Okay, that’s clearly the guy” and there’s no risk. And that was before questions about Brad Lidge showed up. So I think you’re down to seven.
GREY: What top 20 pick are you most excited about? Least excited about?
MATTHEW BERRY: Most excited about Miguel Cabrera. He’s do for a monster, monster year. Most people look at last year as a disappointment, but he actually had a huge 2nd half. Once he adjusted to the new position and to the new league. He’s still going towards the end of the 1st round, but I think he’s a guy you can look up at the end of the year and be the number one fantasy player overall.
GREY: Agreed.
MATTHEW BERRY: Certainly top three. So that’s the guy I’m most excited about and least excited about A-Rod. There’s so many variables. He’s so crazy. I believe we have not heard the end of the A-Rod story. This is based on nothing more than my gut. I don’t want anyone thinking I have insider information from ESPN. This is based on nothing more than my gut. I think there’s more to the story. I think it’s going to come out that he used more than what he’s said. I think the story is going to continue throughout the summer. I think if the Yankees don’t have an amazing year he’s going to be left holding the bag. I mean… I just don’t like him. I’ve been very open about that.
GREY: A fantasy baseballer’s (<– my Mom’s term) job is to unearth late round bargains. Who is this year’s Ryan Ludwick? Tell my readers now. They thank you.
MATTHEW BERRY: Shin-Soo Choo.
GREY: I like him too.Our 20 risky pitcher for 2009 post points out a few candidates to avoid at your draft. You probably disagree with Ricky Nolasco’s inclusion there like I disagree with MILF’s nickname on VH-1’s I Love Money 2. Go ahead, make a case for Nolasco.
MATTHEW BERRY: The case for Nolasco is (to) look at what he did last year. Right? I mean, over the 2nd half of last year after the All-Star Break, Nolasco 4th in MLB in strikeouts. Had a ridiculous 98 to 12 K/BB ratio… I’m doing this off the top of my head so it’s 96 to 12 or 98 to 12. (It’s 98.) He hasn’t shown any sign of being injury-prone or…um… He’s still young. So, I mean, I think overuse at this point is a bit premature.
GREY: You are admirably outspoken on your fantasy strategies – e.g., don’t pay for saves, draft speed… Do you get a lot of hate mail–
MATTHEW BERRY: (jumps in) It’s more than just that. Those are just two of them.
GREY: Okay, those are two. Do you get a lot of hate mail from people bemoaning their crappy closers and their Carl Crawford-led offense?
MATTHEW BERRY: I would say my hate mail is pretty evenly spread out among all subjects.
GREY: Let’s say we’re close friends –
MATTHEW BERRY: I find this hard to believe already. But go ahead…
GREY: What, no rapport? Is it my breath? Should I return to the brownnosing?
MATTHEW BERRY: It’s quite all right. Just go ahead.
GREY: Okay, so I’m about to join a random ESPN league. Given that your core strategies are read by many of the participants on the site, would you suggest I follow your strategy or move closer to the opposite since there will be more bargains (i.e., top closers go later)?
MATTHEW BERRY: Well, I appreciate, as my pretend close friend, that everyone is going along with my strategy. I don’t think that’s the case. Fantasy sports more than anything else is a place where everyone thinks they know more than everyone else. That’s one of the points of it. You want to prove you know more than everyone else. So I think my strategies work, I think every league is different, obviously every rule is different, every fantasy player has different tendencies. My recommendation would be, in a vacuum, that you don’t abandon a strategy just because everyone else is doing it.
With that said, there’s definitely something to zigging where everyone else is zagging. Where I wouldn’t pay for closers maybe I would go for starting pitching more, because I tend to say wait on starting pitching. I might try to lock up a scarce position like I might draft three 2nd basemen. Give myself depth somewhere to trade if there was suddenly a run on something. As opposed to chasing a lower end guy at one position. Suddenly, a bunch of 3rd basemen are going off the board, so instead of going early on a so-so third baseman just to have someone, I might load up on another position. “Okay, I’m going to make sure I have a bunch of good 2nd basemen and trade them.”
GREY: The amount of league data you have at ESPN must be staggering. Have you given thought to summarizing this data and publishing it? For example, what players were on the highest percentage of teams that lost? Do teams that have invest in say a 2B/SS combination in the first two rounds or pick a starter in the 1st round fare better/average/worse than the average team? That type of information would really add some credence.
MATTHEW BERRY: It’s been suggested. It’s a matter of resources. It’s actually not that easy to pull that data as you might think. So… It’s been suggested. It’s up to the people that run our technology group and the people who run our fantasy content and I do neither. So I’m not the right guy to answer that question. I am ESPN’s lead fantasy analyst.
[Rudy's Editor Note: C'mon Worldwide Leader! You have a treasure trove of data to actually validate (or invalidate) fantasy baseball theories. Allow us at the data and we'll reduce our ESPN-razzing by 40%!]
GREY: If Baseball Tonight anchors and alumni participated in a fantasy baseball league, who do you think would win? Who will finish 2nd to last in front of Eric Young?
MATTHEW BERRY: Steve Phillips would win. Steve Phillips plays fantasy. He knows it really well. In fact, Steve Phillips won an internal Baseball Tonight league last year against a bunch of researchers and producers and people that really play. So Steve Phillips is the guy who I think would win. The guy that I think would lose is…um… The guy I would say would lose…. Um… The guy who would finish last is Kruk. (He’s) been very open about his disdain. He’s never played fantasy so like anything I think it takes a learning curve. John Kruk has publicly said that if he played he wouldn’t do a lot of the moves. So I could see him getting bored with it.
GREY: Has anyone mentioned to you that your on-screen presence is reminiscent of Crazy Eddie – the 80’s electronics store where the prices were innnnnnnnsane? Note, you do publish manifestos, a crazy man’s journal…
MATTHEW BERRY: No, I’ve never heard that one. I’ve heard the gamut. But I’ve never heard that one.
GREY: Ever thought of being known as Wild Berry?
MATTHEW BERRY: No, I have not. I try to avoid obvious puns on my own last name.
GREY: Your lack of canoodle time with the ladies is worldwide leader renown. Can anyone have a meaningful relationship and be good in fantasy sports?
MATTHEW BERRY: It’s good fodder. Although it’s changing recently… Since being at ESPN, it hasn’t been a priority. I date women that are wrong for me. And I’m probably wrong for women that date me. I don’t blame any of it on fantasy sports. Nate, who I do the podcast with, he’s very happily married.
GREY: Could you say our tagline for us? Razzball — Something to read between masturbation sessions.
MATTHEW BERRY: No.I have no problem with the phrase itself, but I’m not sure I agree with it.
These top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball will be yawnstipating compared to the top 20 1st basemen or even top 20 shortstops, but you have to start somewhere, right? (That was rhetorical.) You can check out our other top 20 lists for 2009 fantasy baseball under 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. I usually don’t draft a top catcher, instead I hold off until the later rounds and grab one of the late rounders. That doesn’t mean I’m going to start the top 20 catcher list at number twenty-one (Varitek? Oy vey.), cause some of youse like to gamble on a top catcher. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them draft Chris Snyder. Listed along with these catchers are my 2009 projections for each player. Feel free to also look at our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater. Anyway, here’s the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball:
1. Brian McCann – This is the first tier of catchers. This tier goes from here to Doumit. I call this tier, “I won’t own one, but I hear they’re good.” This was the one top catcher I owned in 2008 and that was only because he seemed to be discounted compared to Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez. So my fantasy team with McCann must’ve have been the top performing offensive team I had, right? Nopers. The top catcher, McCann, still only gave you 68/23/87/.301. If he did that at 3rd base, you’d call him Melvin Mora. Zoinks! 2009 Projections: 75/25/95/.295
2. Geovany Soto – I have a personal bias against Mauer, but I’ll get to him. (9 HRs and 1 steal in 2008!?! Are you effin’ kidding me?) Seems to me that the current climate (outside of Chicago) about Soto is he was great in 2008, but that’s about all we can expect from him. He’s going to be 26 on opening day. He can’t get better? Actually, he can. 2009 Projections: 70/26/100/.280
3. Joe Mauer – Somewhere someone once wrote, “9 HRs and 1 steal in 2008!?! Are you effin’ kidding me?” I forget where I read that, but it’s eloquent, profound and other razzy words for eloquent and profound. Why are people drafting this dooode so early? For a .330 average? Shoot, lay off the Mark Reynolds-trans fat and you don’t need the Joe Mauer tasting-like-dust protein shake. 2009 Projections: 95/12/80/.320/3
4. Victor Martinez - I’m not drafting Victor Martinez on any teams, unless… Once again, and in caps — UNLESS he falls really far in a draft. He’s only going to be thirty-years-old during the 2009 season; I don’t think he’s done just yet. 2009 Projections: 65/18/95/.300
5. Russell Martin – Martin is featured in our Razzball glossary for the term, “Teabagger,” but otherwise Razzball doesn’t have much love for The Backstop Who Plays Near Eagle Rock. I don’t want to have anything to do with a catcher who gives you value because of some schmohawkian steals. You’d be surprised at how fast a 13/18 catcher can become a 12/7 catcher. You really want to draft Placido Polanco in the fourth round as your catcher? 2009 Projections: 95/15/70/.285/10
6. Ryan Doumit – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to Biggie Molina. I call this tier, “The first catchers I could draft in any league.” I originally had Iannetta at number six then put Doumit here, then Iannetta then Shoppach then… Well, you get the idea. The next three catchers are all very close. Doumit is injury-prone, but so what? If he hits 17 home runs in 110 games and you can plug in someone else the other 50 games, you’re actually better off than having a subpar catcher for 160 games. Doumit’s injury history is actually how he ended up in front of Iannetta and Shoppach. It’s a plus in my mind. 2009 Projections: 60/17/70/.295/2
7. Chris Iannetta – Could easily finish 2009 in the top 3 of this top 20 list, which makes him so enticing. He would’ve been ranked a bit higher on this list if not for Yorvit Torrealba’s deal with the devil to lessen Iannetta’s fantasy value. 2009 Projections: 55/19/70/.265
8. Kelly Shoppach – The Indians have to play Martinez at 1st or DH, right? I think they do, but they might not. Here’s a scenario, V-Mart starts off slow and says he needs to be behind the plate to get going offensively. The Indians appease Martinez four times a week and Shoppach sits in 75% of the games. This may sound like death for Shoppach’s value, but I still think he could put up 15 home runs in that scenario. Remember, Shoppach was once a decent prospect. Hopefully, he gets even more at-bats. 2009 Projections: 50/18/60/.260
9. Mike Napoli – Bill James has Napoli hitting 31 home runs if he gets 449 at-bats. Well, that’s the catch, ain’t it? (Speaking of catch, has anyone ever seen Fishing with John? It’s one of the best TV shows ever. The episode where he goes ice fishing with Willem Dafoe is brilliant. But I digress.) Last year in 227 at-bats, Napoli’s numbers were 39/20/49/.273/7. With full-time catcher duties, he’s the number one catcher, right? No. His average isn’t going to be over .270 in 2009 and he’s not a full-time catcher. Also, if he were a full-time catcher in 2009, his average would really suffer. 2009 Projections: 55/23/65/.245/7
10. Bengie Molina – And onto the next tier of catchers. I like to call this tier, “Just punt and go with an upside pick like Salty, Teagarden or Flores.” 2009 Projections: 50/15/70/.275
11. Ramon Hernandez – Every time I convince myself Ramon Hernandez has one more big season left in him, my common sense steps in and talks about what a bloody moron I am. I’d consider grabbing Ramon Hernandez in some leagues, but the better move is grabbing a younger upside pick real late cough Clement cough 2009 Projections: 55/17/75/.260
12. Jorge Posada – Posada has the name attached to him that says 20 home runs and 85 runs. But he has a shoulder (barely) attached to him that says 12 home runs and a DL stint. Don’t get nostalgic. Posada’s not worth being drafted in ten team mixed leagues. If you’re drafting a catcher this far down the list, do yourself a favor, grab Salty or even Laird. 2009 Projections: 55/12/65/.270
13. Pablo Sandoval - And another tier begins. Let’s call this tier, “Guys that I wouldn’t mind having on my team. After all, it is just a catcher. Take a flier.” You get an extra catcher, because Sandoval might not be eligible at catcher in your league. If he is, you’re in luck because there’s going to be a 2009 Fantasy Baseball sleeper post about Sandoval shortly. 2009 Projections: 60/14/65/.300
14. Chris Snyder – A poor man’s Napoli. 2009 Projections: 55/18/70/.245
15. Jeff Clement – Huge 2009 fantasy sleeper right here. I may even devote a whole post to this guy. Maybe a few posts. Okay, maybe just this half of a paragraph. Last year in Triple-A, he went 40/14/43/.335 in only 173 at-bats. 173 at-bats! Okay, so he was abysmal when he was called up to the majors, but so what? He’s only 25 and he has catcher eligibility. I need to say more? 2009 Projections: 60/17/70/.250
16. Jarrod Saltamacchia – May not have the starting job in 2009, and he could still see 350 at-bats. He’ll probably be in a timeshare with Teagarden and he’ll steal at-bats from Blalock (or Blalock will pull a Kotchman and be out indefintely). Salty only feels like a guy who is a perennial bust. He’ll only be 24 for the majority of the 2009 season. 2009 Projections: 65/16/75/.265
17. Dioner Navarro – I think Navarro and Sandoval must workout together. They have the softball build without the upper body strength to tap the keg. 2009 Projections: 50/10/60/.285
18. Jesus Flores – If Snyder was a poor man’s Napoli, Flores is a poor man’s Snyder. What? Not impressed with that comparison? Okay, what if I called him a homeless man’s McCann? 2009 Projections: 50/14/65/.245
19. Yadier Molina – And here’s a new player tier made up of two schmohawks. This tier I call, “Guys who I would never have on my team.” Maybe I’m drunk on stupid, but I don’t buy the .300 average from Molina last year. Though he’s not quite the guy who hit .216 one year either. He is the guy that can’t break double figures in home runs. As The Count from Sesame Street would say, “Bleh!” 2009 Projections: 35/7/50/.270
20. A.J. Pierzynski - I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. If you’re drafting a catcher this late and you’re taking Pierzynski, you’re not trying hard enough. 2009 Projections: Yuck/Blah/I Feel Sick/.280
After the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but three stand out:
Matt Wieters -Well, la di da. If it isn’t the pre-preseason AL Rookie of the Year candidate, Matt Wieters, who’s now under the shadow of The Almighty Zaun. I already went over Wieters 2009 fantasy outlook. With the addition of Zaun, Wieters is only worth a look in deep AL-Only leagues and keepers. In one year leagues, don’t bother or wait until Spring Training to see if Zaun is being used instead of Wieters or simply as a mentor. If Zaun’s his mentor and Wieters is the starter, then Wieters moves back up this list. Just don’t reach too far for him. For every Geovany Soto, there’s six grande Salty-Mochachinos. 2009 Projections: 50/17/60/.290 or the Minors
Gerald Laird – He’s actually more valuable than Yadier Molina. That’s right; I said it. I placed him at the back end of the catcher tier though to highlight him and because, similarly to Teagarden, there’s more risk involved with Laird. Yes, he’s the cream of the crap. 2009 Projections: 60/13/65/.270
Taylor Teagarden – I already went over a 2009 Teagarden fantasy outlook. Before you write off Teagarden for being behind Salty, remember these three things. 1) Salty could move to 1st, when Davis is filling in for a DL’d DH. 2) Teagarden has already impressed Rangers’ management, unlike Salty. 3) There’s no number three. If Teagarden leaves spring with the job, he moves up this list. So stay tuned! Or not! It’s your call really. 2009 Projections: 50/18/65/.265
Things change in fantasy baseball. Daily. I could put Hanley Ramirez number one on the top 100 list for the second half of 2008 and he could get injured tomorrow. Or Alex Rodriguez could announce he’s skipping out on all August games to join Madonna on tour for the remake of the Madonna: Truth or Dare movie with Arod playing the part of Warren Beatty. This list may not be relevant two weeks for now. Or it may be completely correct in two months and you’ll want to join the Church of Grey. There’s no membership fees. Sin all you want. Just don’t trade for Ryan Zimmerman. This list is NOT (Caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) where I see guys ending up if you were to take the first half and combine it with the 2nd half of their season. This is simply a list of the top hundred fantasy baseball players if you were to pick them up on the first day of the 2nd half. So while Kouzmanoff did not have a solid first half, he will appear on this list because I like him more for the 2nd half. Anyway, here’s the top 100 for fantasy baseball for the 2nd half. (Also, download Rudy Gamble’s 2nd half fantasy baseball projections for 2008.)
1. Alex Rodriguez – I’d trade my left nut for Arod. In fact, to prove a point, I just did. Are you happy? I’m one-nutted now. You’re welcome. 2. Hanley Ramirez – And there goes my right nut. Now I’m a woman. 3. Jose Reyes – To answer the Bee Gees, my love goes deep, especially for Reyes. He’s on pace for 135/18/70/.300/60. I think he exceeds those steals numbers, which means he does better in the 2nd half. 4. Chase Utley – My only regret this season is not having him on one team. I thought he should go 7th in the beginning of the year and I just never had the right pick. 5. David Wright – His average usually picks up in the 2nd half and he fills every category. 6. Matt Holliday – Think he can chip in ten steals while hitting twenty home runs in the 2nd half. Oh, and a .330 average. 7. Albert Pujols – I’m starting to feel like he’s overrated. .340/17/45 is solid for the 2nd half, but he’s that much better than Teixiera? 8. Lance Berkman – I think he slows down a bit as the season wears on and when he realizes he’s doing it all for nothing. Making the season count out of nothing at all… 9. Johan Santana – No reason why he can’t win 12 games in the second half, even though he only won 8 in the first. Recognize! 10. Ryan Braun – 17/10 in the 2nd half as the Hebrew Hammer does work at the plate on every day but Yom Kippur (<—-forced!). 11. Ryan Howard – Gets to 50/150. You take that with a .250 average and you like it. 12. Prince Fielder – Hey, why do my Tofutti Cuties taste like hamburger? *Yost smiles devilishly* 13. Miguel Cabrera – As I have said before, he’ll have the same numbers at the end of the year he always has. 14. Mark Teixeira – PABST, Post-All-Star Break Stud Teixeira. 15. Grady Sizemore – 15/15/.270 Tastes like Rollins with more power. 16. Jimmy Rollins – Tastes like Sizemore with more steals. 17. Josh Hamilton – First one I don’t feel completely comfortable with, but after his first half I couldn’t drop him any further. 18. Carl Crawford – Strong 2nd half last year. A force in steals, runs and average. 19. Jake Peavy – If the DL-stint this year didn’t worry me, he’d be sitting in first class with Santana. 20. Brandon Webb – His 2nd half last year was insane. I wouldn’t bank on any player to be the same this year as they were last year. It’s not how things work, but I still think he can be excellent. 21. Carlos Lee – Lisa Gray, who’s funny for a broad, calls him Clank Lee. (A funny girl who knows baseball? You schmohawks should be combing your hair just reading that.) 22. Ichiro Suzuki – I don’t know why I can’t get behind Ichiro. I love sushi. Love! I once dated a Japanese girl, which turned out miserably, but other than my current girlfriend, they all end badly, right? I mean, at some point in every relationship you gotta say, “The sound of your breathing irritates me. Let’s breakup.” 23. Ian Kinsler – He can actually build on his 1st half power, but his average will probably come down. 24. Nick Markakis – On the last day of the season, when Markakis reaches 110/30/110/.315/20, there will be a party at my house called, “My Girlfriend Gets Me Back On The Final Day Of The Season If I Still Have A Girlfriend By Then” Party. Hopefully she gets us a stripper. 25. Brandon Phillips – Every single time I rank him, I always want to drop him further, except if I’m ranking overrated players. For some reason, Phillips always makes me feel like this reporter.
26. CC Sabathia – I almost moved him above Peavy, that’s how much I like him in the 2nd half. 27. Vladimir Guerrero – Almost 40 points below his career average, I think he gets much closer to it, which would make for a very hot 2nd half. 28. Carlos Beltran – My placement of so many Mets in the top 30 shows I obviously think they’re going to continue their winning ways. I’m not exactly a fan of Willie Randolph, but it’s a shame that Manual will get credit for the Mets’ resurgence. They are just playing how they should’ve been the whole time, which, in this case, is very good. 29. Aramis Ramirez - I’m still a fan even though I feel like the first half of the year he was giving his owners a dutch pantry. (The first entry, of course. BTW, why is Dutch an adjective that equals kinky shizz dealing with farts? Or you “can go Dutch?” Which is splitting a check. Don’t try and figure this out. You’ll just waste precious man hours.) 30. Justin Morneau – I just went over why I like Morneau. 31. Garrett Atkins – The last two seasons’ second halves have been tremendous. I kinda wanted to push him into the top 30, but his HRs just haven’t been high enough. 32. Chipper Jones – What’s left on the Braves’s season? 67 games. Chipper makes a run at 40 of them, but not a run at .400. 33. Derrek Lee – Mostly a yawn after April. Swapping him for Howard would’ve been the move. But you didn’t do that, did you? 34. B.J. Upton – And, unlike Brandon Phillips, I always wanna move Upton, um, up. Maybe because his initials are BJ. I gotta call my shrink and tell her I’m making progress! 35. Nate McLouth – Tastes like Sizemore but much riskier. 36. Alfonso Soriano – I hope this is the year of the Cubs just so I don’t have to hear how this is the year for the Cubs every year. BTW, Soriano is this low because he has an injured hand. I wouldn’t want to mortgage the farm on a hitter with an injured hand. But he has shown great resiliency in the past so he could be a bargain. 37. Robinson Cano – I’m drunk on my love for Cano. Leave me alone. 38. Adrian Gonzalez – I don’t think he gets above 35 HRs. He’s at 22 HRs. You do the math! 39. Jacoby Ellsbury – 5/30 with a kagillion runs is great. Hopefully his average doesn’t continue to dip. 40. Corey Hart – Just a bit off of Sizemore in terms of production and “getting ladies,” which I guess could be consider production, as well. 41. Josh Beckett – Only a few pitchers moved up in the top 100 from where they appeared in the March top 100. 42. Curtis Granderson – He’s one of the few players that I disliked in March that I actually like more now. Primarily because of his ‘07 post-All-Star Break numbers. 43. Cole Hamels – Few pitchers give you 8 Ks even when they have an off game. 44. Bobby Abreu – 10/10 with a chance for a pile of runs and RBIs. 45. Matt Kemp – Power has come on, his Ks are a bit worrisome, but I’m finally buying. 46. Carlos Pena – For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one. I actually like Pena more now than in the beginning of the season. Partly because he can’t have a much worse half than his 1st. 47. Adam Dunn – Here’s another post-All-Star Break twenty home run possibility. 48. Manny Ramirez – The season is long and Manny’s attention span is short. This is the time of year I don’t want Manny. 49. Dan Uggla – If he only hits 10 HRs in the 2nd half with a .240 average, you’ll wish you had Yunel. 50. Roy Halladay – Halladay looks like he’s everything he used to be, but hadn’t been for the past two years. If that makes sense. 51. Jason Bay – I wanted to drop him even further, but when someone’s on pace for 36/10 with respectable peripherals you just can’t do it. 52. Torii Hunter – He’s one hot streak away from a 17/10 2nd half. 53. Carlos Zambrano – One of the few pitchers that’s at even odds for ten wins after the Break. 54. Brian Roberts – Bad three year Post-All-Star Break average and he slows down in the 2nd half. 55. Magglio Ordonez – I don’t feel good about his placement in the rankings because of the injury, but he should be back right after the All-Star Break. 56. Carlos Quentin – I’m worried the average keeps falling, that’s why he’s ranked this low. If you, ya know, were wondering. 57. Michael Young – Two shots of solid, one shot of steady and absolutely no excitement. 58. Shane Victorino – I feel like The Flying Hawaiian is not getting his due. His pace 110/9/55/.280/40. To think some people dropped him in the beginning of the season. Or traded him to Rudy for Matt Capps. 59. John Lackey – Yes, I’m a fetishist for NL pitchers, but I likey Lackey. The problem is the injury in the beginning of the year and his last two starts. 60. Dan Haren – His 2nd half troubles last year are well-documented, I won’t tack on more of the same. 61. Pat Burrell – One of the few players who I would double their stats to this point and say that’s close to what you’re going to get on the season. 62. Brian McCann – Putting up Victor Martinez numbers while V-Mart puts up Jason Kendall numbers. Weird! 63. Geovany Soto – For the search term “Geovany,” this guy used to be on the first page of Google. Nice hat! 64. Justin Verlander – As we said the other day, “Since June 1, 8 starts, 5 Wins, 55 IP, 52 Ks, ERA/WHIP in the 2.70/1.10 area.” And that’s me quoting us! 65. Joe Nathan – Current number one closer in my book. But my book is titled, “I’d Never Draft A Number One Closer.” 66. Jonathan Papelbon – Should be trading these closers sooner rather than later, if you have holes elsewhere. 67. Francisco Rodriguez -Just because he closed 38 games in the 1st half doesn’t mean he reaches 55. 68. Mariano Rivera – And the closer run ends. 69. Tim Lincecum – Innings will begin to pileup and the Giants (if they have any sense in their collective heads) will limit Lincecum in the 2nd half. 70. Kevin Kouzmanoff – So far he’s hit .293 in July. Last year in the 2nd half, he hit .317 with 11 HRs. Maybe this is his thing. 71. Brad Lidge – His Ks can actually make a difference. 72. Chone Figgins – There’s very few players on this list that can impact one category like a healthy Figgins. 73. Derek Jeter – If Jeter starts dating Arod’s ex-wife, I’ll draft him in the first round next year, until that time… 74. Ervin Santana – A decent bet to get to 20 wins and possibly 200 Ks. He’s only ranked this low because he’s never done any of this before. 75. Adrian Beltre – In past years, even when he wasn’t good in the 1st half, he’s been solid in the 2nd half. 76. Mike Jacobs – See no reason why he can’t go .260/15/40 which could be better than Adrian Gonzalez. Cust kayin’. 77. Evan Longoria – Hey, Alex Gordon, this is how you don’t let people down. 78. Chris B. Young – I tried to do these rankings for the most part without looking at my top 100 from March. But I peeked in at where I ranked Krispie. In the 90s. So not only did Krispie have an awful 1st half, but he jumped 12 spots up. He’s failing upwards! Well, this is another sign that these rankings are really trying to look forward instead of look back. I don’t like a lot about Krispie, but his splits last year leaned towards the 2nd half of the year and really all we care about is the 2nd half. 79. Alexis Rios – I hope he finishes strong just so I can stop the hate mail over the winter. 80. Troy Tulowitzki – There’s really nothing that points to Tulo being placed this high. He started off miserably, got hurt, came back with limited results then hurt himself again. So why is he ranked here for the 2nd half? Because if I had to choose between Carlos Guillen and a healthy Tulo, I’d try my hand at Tulo. 81. Carlos Guillen – I’m not a huge fan of Guillen to begin with and his 2nd half last season wasn’t good. 82. Jhonny Peralta – Second to only Hanley and Michael Young for shortstop HRs and RBIs respectively. 83. Chad Billingsley – I believesley. 84. Ben Sheets – I kinda wanted to drop him off the list because of injury history and last year’s 2nd half. 85. Russell Martin – I suppose a catcher going 7/7 excites some. 86. David Ortiz – Papi will hold his best for the playoffs and the Sox will be fine with it. 87. Milton Bradley – It’s just a matter of keeping the injuries in check. The talent was always there. 88. James Shields – Notice who he’s ranked just in front of. The significance is deafening. 89. Scott Kazmir – I put him right after Shields to magnify who I like better. Shields. Dur. 90. Jason Giambi – Stumbled a bit into the All-Star Break, but he can have a ten home run month and pile on the RBIs 91. Paul Konerko – Three year post-All-Star Break average is 16/44/.297. 92. Jeff Francoeur – What, you can root for Hamilton to turn his life around, but you can’t root for Frenchy to turn around his season? 93. Alex Gordon – If he can turn it on this 2nd half like he did last year, he’s worth this spot. If he doesn’t, he further infuriates me. You’ve been warned, Gordon! 94. Hunter Pence – Can be a 15/10 guy in the 2nd half. (I’m not sure I believe that myself, but he can go 15/10. Nope, still don’t believe it.) 95. Miguel Tejada – I considered leaving him off and he seems like he won’t be anything but a higher profile name putting up Kelly Johnson-type numbers. 96. Rickie Weeks – Throw him in Krispie’s sidecar as someone who doesn’t deserve to be on the list, but what he can do makes him impossible to leave off. Actually, I could’ve left him off but I didn’t. 97. Mike Lowell – He’s Puerto Rican and only 34. I always find that curious. Anyway, carry on. 98. Kevin Youkilis – I know he has a history of 2nd half swooning, but he wasn’t even good in June and July last year and he has been this year. I’m going to go out on a wild limb here and say he wins the AL MVP with numbers like 115/30/125/.320/5. 99. Edinson Volquez – When rookie pitchers start to accumulate too many innings, struggles turn to rotation spots being skipped. Then again, Management, “Dusty, you need to limit Edinson’s innings.” Cut to: Dusty’s blank stare. 100. Joey Votto – More valuable than Bruce. 101. Erik Bedard – Because no top 100 list is complete without a 101. Liked Bedard coming into the season. Do not like him at all in the 2nd half. His return is a question mark and he may be shutdown come September. He’s on this list because I wanted to say how much I didn’t like him. “Yo, Point, where you going?” “Home.” “Jump in, I’ll drive you.” 102. Cliff Lee – I didn’t forget him. I just wanted to. 103. Carlos Gomez/Willy Taveras/SAGNOF – If you need steals, you overpay for them. Why? Because it’s now or never. 104. Jonathan Broxton/Damaso Marte/SAGNOF – If you need saves, you… See right above. 105. Whatever Player Gets You The Championship – It’s now or never, people. I cannot stress this enough. Actually, I can and will post about this tomorrow.
Back in the preseason, we launched a new method for rating players called Point Shares. The objective was to create a methodology that converts player’s projected or real stats into a metric that would allow for easy comparisons across players. The metric we settled on is deceptively powerful – Roto points.
Assuming you have a completely average team (55 points in a 5×5 10 team league), each player’s point shares reflect how many points they would add/subtract from your team’s totals if they replaced the average stat projections at that position. For example, if you swapped out an average team’s 1B (Mark Teixeira, David Ortiz) with Lance Berkman, they would increase from 55 points to an estimated 67.5 points. Point Shares also allow for basic trade comparisons (add the points of each side) and assessing your team vs. others (just add up the points and add to 55).
Seeing that we’re 2 months into the season, we thought it was a good time to update our Point Shares rankings – in this case, it is based solely on actual stats through June 8, 2008. So this is more comparable to the ESPN Player Rater vs. ESPN’s player rankings or Yahoo’s Big Board. Except better. (Not saying there aren’t flaws in ours but, c’mon, Ichiro is #17 among all players with a .290/43/3/17/26? At OF?)
