Fantasy Baseball Advice

Finally, we come to the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Can we start games already?)  A little birdie told me we’re opening up our commenter fantasy leagues on Monday.  Giddy to the up.  Okay, you know that I like Lucas Duda more than Melky Cabrera in the top 60 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  You know I like Zack Cozart better than Jhonny Peralta as seen at the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.  But you don’t know how I feel about where these guys fall in the bigger picture.  Is Zack Cozart above Lucas Duda?  Yup.  So to show you where I think players fall in relation to each other in 2012 fantasy baseball drafts, I’m putting together a top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This still needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  If you have a shortstop already and Zack Cozart is still on the board in the 17th round, you don’t draft him if you see Lucas Duda and you need an outfielder, even though Lucas Duda is below Zack Cozart on this list.  So I might take someone at 200 over someone at 180?  Yes, every draft is different.  With the top 10, there’s almost no latitude.  With the top 100, there’s a decent amount of latitude.  With a top 300, there’s lots of latitude.  You taking someone at 185 is more or less the same as someone else taking someone at 235.  So if you see someone who’s ranked at 250th, but want them at 200, then do what you do.  Because of the length of the top 300, there’s no pithy comments with each name, but you kinda do need to know what I’m thinking for each name, so I advise you go over each position in the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  The top 100 and top 300 is what I would have at my drafts, along with the Point Shares (for auction values; they are coming shortly; Rudy is just waiting on the final projections) and the top 20 rankings posts.  I already went over a top 100 for 2012 fantasy baseball, so I’m not going to cover them again.  This top 300 will go from 101 to 300.  Finally, see our list of all players with multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball:

101. Danny Espinosa – 2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.240/19
102. Drew Storen – 2012 Projections:  4-3/2.50/1.04/75, 38 saves
103. Mariano Rivera - 2012 Projections:  2-3/2.40/0.95/55, 40 saves
104. Alex Avila – 2012 Projections:  60/19/75/.280/3
105. Joe Mauer – 2012 Projections: 80/10/85/.310/3
106. Josh Johnson – 2012 Projections:  10-3/2.75/1.05/100 in 110 IP
107. Ian Kennedy – 2012 Projections:  15-10/3.50/1.12/180
108. Yu Darvish – 2012 Projections: 14-7/3.60/1.10/190
109. Josh Beckett – 2012 Projections:  14-9/3.60/1.20/185
110. Ricky Romero – 2012 Projections:  13-12/3.75/1.20/170
111. Jonathon Papelbon – 2012 Projections:  4-3/2.65/1.00/80, 37 saves
112. James Shields – 2012 Projections:  13-11/3.70/1.25/190
113. Alex Rios – 2012 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/22
114. Colby Rasmus – 2012 Projections:  85/22/70/.265/10
115. Corey Hart – 2012 Projections:  75/24/70/.265/8
116. Nick Markakis – 2012 Projections:  80/18/85/.295/10
117. Andre Ethier – 2012 Projections:  70/22/85/.295
118. Ryan Braun – 2012 Projections:  55/20/70/.280/12
119. Tommy Hanson – 2012 Projections:  9-7/3.75/1.20/130 in 120 IP
120. Matt Moore – 2012 Projections:  10-7/3.15/1.20/160 in 150 innings
121. Jose Valverde – 2012 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.22/65, 35 saves
122. Brian Wilson – 2012 Projections:  5-3/2.90/1.32/70, 35 saves
123. J.J. Putz – 2012 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 32 saves
124. Michael Bourn – 2012 Projections:  90/2/40/.280/50
125. Emilio Bonifacio – 2012 Projections:  70/2/40/.260/30
126. Derek Jeter – 2012 Projections:  90/10/60/.275/15
127. Max Scherzer – 2012 Projections:  14-8/3.70/1.30/195
128. Ubaldo Jimenez – 2012 Projections:  13-10/3.65/1.27/190
129. Shaun Marcum – 2012 Projections:  12-8/3.60/1.17/160
130. Brandon Beachy – 2012 Projections:  12-7/3.45/1.18/190 in 170 innings
131. Brandon Morrow – 2012 Projections:  13-9/3.85/1.28/210
132. Cory Luebke – 2012 Projections:  9-8/3.25/1.09/170
133. Heath Bell – 2012 Projections:  4-3/3.25/1.18/50, 37 saves
134. Mike Moustakas – 2012 Projections:   60/20/80/.270/4
135. Alexei Ramirez – 2012 Projections:  75/17/80/.270/10
136. Erick Aybar – 2012 Projections:  80/6/50/.280/24
137. Miguel Montero – 2012 Projections:  60/17/75/.270
138. Jesus Montero – 2012 Projections: 55/17/70/.285
139. Torii Hunter – 2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.270/7
140. Vernon Wells – 2012 Projections:  75/25/85/.260/8
141. Chris Carpenter – 2012 Projections:  13-10/3.65/1.25/165
142. Carlos Marmol – 2012 Projections:  5-3/3.50/1.35/100, 25 saves
143. Coco Crisp – 2012 Projections:  65/7/50/.260/35
144. Carlos Beltran – 2012 Projections:  65/18/80/.275/7
145. Nick Swisher – 2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.270
146. Carlos Quentin – 2012 Projections:  60/22/75/.250/3
147. Ichiro Suzuki – 2012 Projections:  80/6/40/.310/30
148. Jose Tabata – 2012 Projections:  90/7/50/.285/30
149. Ryan Roberts – 2012 Projections:  55/13/65/.245/15
150. Aaron Hill – 2012 Projections:  70/18/80/.265/15
151. Kelly Johnson – 2012 Projections:  80/20/70/.265/14
152. Johnny Cueto – 2012 Projections:  11-6/3.80/1.25/130
153. Michael Pineda – 2012 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.15/180
154. Adam Wainwright – 2012 Projections:  12-7/3.75/1.28/140 in 160 innings
155. Roy Oswalt – 2012 Projections:  14-10/3.65/1.22/140
156. Jhoulys Chacin – 2012 Projections:  12-10/3.60/1.26/175
157. Trevor Cahill – 2012 Projections: 12-10/3.60/1.35/160
158. Jaime Garcia – 2012 Projections:  11-9/3.65/1.30/160
159. Neftali Feliz – 2012 Projections:  10-6/3.55/1.20/95 in 120 innings
160. Joakim Soria – 2012Projections:  3-2/3.35/1.25/65, 35 saves
161. Joel Hanrahan – 2012 Projections:  2-4/3.35/1.20/65, 34 saves
162. Ryan Madson – 2012 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.22/60, 32 saves
163. J.J. Hardy – 2012 Projections:  60/19/75/.255
164. Dee Gordon – 2012 Projections:  80/0/30/.265/45
165. Ian Desmond – 2012 Projections:  70/10/65/.250/22
166. Danny Valencia – 2012 Projections:  75/18/85/.265/3
167. Jason Kipnis – 2012 Projections:  80/14/60/.255/12
168. Austin Jackson – 2012 Projections:  100/9/50/.260/27
169. Delmon Young – 2012 Projections:  70/17/80/.285/3
170. Cameron Maybin – 2012 Projections:  75/7/35/.255/30
171. Jemile Weeks – 2012 Projections:  90/3/50/.265/30
172. Colby Lewis – 2012 Projections:  14-11/4.00/1.20/180
173. Derek Holland – 2012 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.32/180
174. Justin Masterson – 2012 Projections:  10-10/3.85/1.32/160
175. Kenley Jansen – 2012 Projections:  1-3/2.25/1.00/85, 25 saves
176. Jason Motte – 2012 Projections:  3-4/2.50/1.10/65, 27 saves
177. Huston Street – 2012 Projections:  2-4/3.00/1.10/50, 30 saves
178. Tim Hudson – 2012 Projections:  11-9/3.65/1.18/120
179. Doug Fister – 2012 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.18/140
180. Ervin Santana – 2012 Projections:  12-12/4.00/1.30/170
181. Mark Trumbo – 2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)
182. Paul Goldschmidt – 2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.245/7
183. David Ortiz – 2012 Projections:  75/27/90/.270
184. Zack Cozart – 2012 Projections:  55/14/70/.245/20
185. Alcides Escobar – 2012 Projections:  75/5/50/.250/30
186. Jair Jurrjens – 2012 Projections:  11-9/4.15/1.35/100
187. Clay Buchholz – 2012 Projections:  10-6/4.25/1.30/125
188. Jeremy Hellickson – 2012 Projections:  10-9/4.30/1.25/130
189. Andrew Bailey – 2012 Projections:  3-1/3.30/1.10/50, 34 saves
190. Dustin Ackley – 2012 Projections:  80/12/55/.265/12
191. Lorenzo Cain – 2012 Projections:  80/8/50/.280/25
192. Lucas Duda – 2012 Projections:  75/20/85/.280/3
193. Brennan Boesch – 2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.270/7
194. Dexter Fowler – 2012 Projections:  90/7/50/.270/20
195. Jeff Francoeur – 2012 Projections:  70/22/80/.260/7
196. Melky Cabrera – 2012 Projections:  75/14/65/.270/15
197. Matt Joyce – 2012 Projections: 55/17/65/.265/10
198. Eric Thames – 2012 Projections:  70/20/75/.255/5
199. Nolan Reimold – 2012 Projections:  65/24/80/.250/10
200. Roger Bernadina – 2012 Projections:  55/10/65/.260/20
201. Brandon Belt – 2012 Projections:  70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)
202. Kendrys Morales – 2012 Projections:  65/22/75/.290
203. Jhonny Peralta – 2012 Projections:  60/17/75/.250
204. Justin Morneau – 2012 Projections:  60/17/75/.285
205. Gaby Sanchez – 2012 Projections:  65/20/85/.265/3
206. Freddie Freeman – 2012 Projections:  60/19/75/.280/3
207. Jonathan Sanchez – 2012 Projections:  12-11/3.95/1.35/185
208. Vance Worley – 2012 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.27/130
209. Mike Minor – 2012 Projections:  10-8/3.65/1.28/170
210. Neil Walker – 2012 Projections:  70/12/80/.270/7
211. Gordon Beckham – 2012 Projections:  55/14/70/.260/5
212. Wandy Rodriguez – 2012 Projections:  10-10/3.65/1.30/170
213. Mat Gamel – 2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.290
214. Sergio Santos – 2012 Projections:  3-5/3.70/1.24/80, 25 saves
215. Alex Presley – 2012 Projections:  80/10/60/.270/20
216. Jordan Walden – 2012 Projections:  4-2/3.35/1.26/65, 35 saves
217. Kyle Farnsworth – 2012 Projections: 4-1/3.40/1.15/50, 25 saves
218. Frank Francisco – 2012 Projections: 3-4/3.50/1.28/60, 30 saves
219. Rafael Betancourt – 2012 Projections:  4-2/3.50/1.10/65, 25 saves
220. Matt Thornton – 2012 Projections:  5-4/3.75/1.22/65, 20 saves
221. Joe Nathan – 2012 Projections:  3-4/3.75/1.18/45, 30 saves
222. Mike Carp – 2012 Projections:  55/21/70/.260/3
223. Chris Heisey – 2012 Projections:  50/17/65/.250/10
224. Nyjer Morgan – 2012 Projections:  65/3/30/.270/27
225. Brandon League – 2012 Projections:   1-4/3.50/1.20/65, 30 saves
226. Ian Stewart – 2012 Projections:  60/24/75/.245/7
227. David Freese – 2012 Projections:  55/15/65/.290
228. Martin Prado – 2012 Projections:  80/12/70/.300/5
229. Brandon McCarthy – 2012 Projections:  8-11/3.50/1.17/140
230. Tim Stauffer – 2012 Projections:  8-10/3.80/1.24/135
231. Ted Lilly – 2012 Projections:  11-8/3.85/1.18/160
232. Scott Baker – 2012 Projections:  11-7/3.65/1.19/160
233. Jake Peavy – 2012 Projections:  10-8/3.75/1.21/130
234. Ryan Vogelsong – 2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.26/140
235. Jonathon Niese – 2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.32/160
236. Bud Norris – 2012 Projections:  7-9/3.80/1.32/190
237. Mike Leake – 2012 Projections:  13-8/3.75/1.22/135
238. Ryan Dempster – 2012 Projections:  12-8/3.90/1.33/190
239. Edwin Jackson – 2012 Projections:  11-10/3.80/1.35/160
240. Geovany Soto – 2012 Projections:  60/18/75/.260
241. Wilson Ramos – 2012 Projections:  55/18/70/.270
242. Chris Iannetta – 2012 Projections:  55/16/65/.245/5
243. J.P. Arencibia – 2012 Projections:  50/21/70/.235
244. Devin Mesoraco – 2012 Projections:  55/18/65/.280
245. Salvador Perez – 2012 Projections:  50/10/65/.280
246. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 2012 Projections:  45/15/60/.220
247. Ryan Doumit – 2012 Projections:  45/14/55/.260
248. Russell Martin – 2012 Projections:  50/10/60/.240/9
249. Jonathan Lucroy – 2012 Projections:  50/13/60/.260/3
250. Yonder Alonso – 2012 Projections:  55/16/70/.280
251. Justin Smoak – 2012 Projections:  55/18/65/.245
252. Carlos Pena – 2012 Projections:  55/25/75/.210
253. Dayan Viciedo – 2012 Projections:  60/15/70/.260/3
254. Michael Brantley – 2012 Projections:  60/6/50/.275/20
255. Josh Reddick – 2012 Projections: 75/15/85/.260/10
256. Jon Jay – 2012 Projections:  50/12/40/.280/10
257. Alejandro De Aza – 2012 Projections:  60/7/30/.270/20
258. John Mayberry – 2012 Projections:  40/18/55/.250/10 in 400 ABs
259. Jordan Schafer – 2012 Projections:  75/5/35/.245/25
260. Mitch Moreland – 2012 Projections:  60/15/70/.275/3
261. Angel Pagan – 2012 Projections:  75/6/40/.280/27
262. Andres Torres – 2012 Projections:  70/5/40/.265/24
263. Seth Smith – 2012 Projections:  55/15/70/.275/10
264. Ryan Raburn – 2012 Projections:  40/12/50/.275/3
265. Brian Roberts – 2012 Projections:  65/5/35/.260/12
266. Jose Altuve – 2012 Projections:  80/12/40/.265/24
267. Homer Bailey – 2012 Projections:  12-9/3.70/1.28/130
268. Brad Peacock – 2012 Projections:  9-8/3.60/1.30/170
269. Edinson Volquez – 2012 Projections:  8-12/3.75/1.33/200
270. Chris Sale – 2012 Projections:  8-8/3.50/1.24/130
271. Daniel Bard – 2012 Projections:  9-7/3.70/1.22/160
272. Chris Perez – 2012 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/45, 25 saves
273. Jim Johnson – 2012 Projections: 4-5/4.00/1.30/60, 20 saves
274. Matt Capps – 2012 Projections: 3-5/3.90/1.28/45, 25 saves
275. Brian Fuentes – 2012 Projections: 2-5/3.60/1.20/45, 20 saves
276. Juan Abreu – 2012 Projections:  1-4/2.70/1.28/70, 20 saves
277. Sean Rodriguez – 2012 Projections:  55/14/65/.230/10
278. Aroldis Chapman – 2012 Projections:  7-2/3.00/1.26/90, 22 Holds, 5 saves
279. Javy Guerra – 2012 Projections:  2-3/3.50/1.25/55, 20 Holds, 12 saves
280. Jon Rauch – 2012 Projections:  4-5/3.55/1.30/40, 20 Holds, 10 saves
281. Tyler Clippard – 2012 Projections:  5-3/2.65/1.15/90, 20 Holds, 5 saves
282. Mark Melancon – 2012 Projections:  6-2/3.25/1.25/65, 22 Holds, 5 saves
283. Jonny Venters – 2012 Projections:  7-2/2.75/1.15//70, 24 Holds, 3 saves
284. Daniel Murphy – 2012 Projections:  75/12/60/.275/5
285. Josh Willingham – 2012 Projections:  65/22/80/.250/3
286. Francisco Rodriguez – 2012 Projections:  6-4/2.75/1.26/80, 18 Holds, 3 saves
287. Yunel Escobar – 2012 Projections:  70/12/45/.280/3
288. Jason Bartlett – 2012 Projections:  50/3/35/.255/20
289. Rafael Furcal – 2012 Projections:  60/7/35/.245/12
290. Tyler Pastornicky – 2012 Projections:  55/7/65/.250/17
291. Jed Lowrie – 2012 Projections:  60/12/65/.260/3
292. Stephen Drew – 2012 Projections:  60/12/55/.270/5
293. Juan Pierre – 2012 Projections:  85/1/40/.285/30
294. Jason Kubel – 2012 Projections:  60/20/75/.260
295. Ben Revere – 2012 Projections:  70/1/35/.280/30
296. Denard Span – 2012 Projections:  65/4/55/.280/25
297. Carlos Lee – 2012 Projections:  60/20/80/.265/3
298. Grady Sizemore – 2012 Projections:  75/17/60/.245/5
299. Hiroki Kuroda – 2012 Projections:  12-9/3.90/1.24/150
300. John Danks – 2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.28/150

The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings have reached the next to next to next to last stop with the top 20 closers for 2012 fantasy baseball.  These top 20 closers are different than all of the other rankings.  The closers on the top of this list you should not draft and there are closers that aren’t on this list that you should be targeting.  Shortly, there will be a list of every team’s closer and setup man.  I’m thinking this afternoon.  Monday funday!  The projections are also a bit wonky since you can’t predict saves.  It’s a fool’s errand.  If fool’s errand means what I think it does.  Some well-known projectionists (not the pimply kid unspooling Albert Nobbs) don’t even attempt to predict saves.  Saves come down to opportunity.  This is yet another reason why you shouldn’t draft the top guys.  Nevertheless, my projections are listed along with where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Craig Kimbrel – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Storen.  I call this tier, “Young, dumb and full of speed gun.”  To illustrate further why you shouldn’t draft a top guy, the top three closers when rankings came out last year were Carlos Marmol, Neftali and Soria.  I wasn’t bonkers with a side of delusional when I put those three at the top.  It just shows you the fickliosity (Made Up Word of the Day!) of the closers.  The good news is the guys I told you to target later are now on the top of the rankings.  Sure, I’d love to get Kimbrel.  Like I’m Samuel Gerard.  Just don’t think it’s happening.  2012 Projections:  5-2/2.20/1.08/110, 40 saves

2. John Axford – I love the fact that he accepted K-Rod coming to the Brewers, took a dump in his locker* and kept on saving games.  (*Unsubstantiated claim that K-Rod assumed was his father-in-law.  K-Rod and his father-in-law are now thick as thieves and have decided to settle all arguments with a round of laser tag.)  2012 Projections:  5-1/2.40/1.16/90, 38 saves

3. Drew Storen – You want a donkeycorn?!  You can’t handle a donkeycorn!  Cause they’re wild, bucking animals.  You should get a lamb.  They’re peaceful.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.50/1.04/75, 38 saves

4. Mariano Rivera – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Putz.  I call this tier, “Not young, not dumb, but will get the job done.”  These guys are not flashy names anymore.  Well, maybe Mo a little, but for the most part there’s no shine on these guys.  Whatever, you just want saves.  Stop being so greedy.  2012 Projections:  2-3/2.40/0.95/55, 40 saves

5. Jonathon Papelbon – Whatever junk Papelbon was smoking in 2010 when his ERA was 3.90, he stopped smoking it in 2011 when his K-rate was 12+ and his ERA was 2.94.  Or maybe he wasn’t smoking in 2010 and was smoking in 2011.  Or maybe he wasn’t smoking either year, but standing near Terry Francona when he was smoking.  Either way, Papelbon now faces the NL and not the Yankees for 18 games a year, 17 of which are televised.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.65/1.00/80, 37 saves

6. Jose Valverde – Everyone is picking the Tigers for the World Series, so naturally Valverde is going to be five kinds of wonderful with a side of “This is better than sex!”  Then again, the Cards and Rangers’ closers weren’t so good last year, so, yeah, it makes little difference.  Not to say I don’t like Valverde, just putting shizz into perspective.  2012 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.22/65, 35 saves

7. Brian Wilson – He had a bit of a junky season last year.  Yet, he still had 36 saves and a 3.11 ERA.  You could’ve done worse *cough* Soria *cough* 2012 Projections:  5-3/2.90/1.32/70, 35 saves

8. J.J. Putz – I struggled with whether to put Putz (almost stutterer!) in the next tier of guys that I’m wary of or if I should say he’ll be fine in this tier.  After battling with myself over this Putz for about fifteen minutes, I worried I might go blind and just ranked him here.  He is a bit of a one man MASH unit, which makes sense since his full name is Jamie Jfarr Putz.  2012 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 32 saves

9. Heath Bell -  This is a new tier.  This tier goes to Hanrahan.  I call this tier, “High ranked closers that I’m a bit wary of.  Not enough to kick out of bed, but enough to wonder why I’m in bed with them.”  The factory underneath Petco that produces middle men that become all-world closers released a report after Bell signed with Miami.  “Miami has a team?  Oh, Florida!  We’re sorry to see Heath Bell leave our organization.  He was a valued member of our bullpen.  But, really, anyone can close games in Petco.  Have you seen our fences?  Trick question.  You haven’t seen the fences because they’re three miles from home plate.  Good luck in Miami!”  2012 Projections:  4-3/3.25/1.18/50, 37 saves

10. Carlos Marmol – I usually tell you to ignore potential trades and that other foolishness, but Epstein is dead set on shaking up the Cubs and putting his stamp on the club, so I could see Marmol setting things up for a playoff contender by mid-summer.  I know if I was headed to the playoffs I’d love to have Marmol in the 8th inning.  2012 Projections:  5-3/3.50/1.35/100, 25 saves

11. Joakim Soria -  Could totally bounce back, but why am I risking it if he doesn’t?  There’s no other closers?  Of course there is.  If I can avoid risk with a fairly high ranked closer, I am.  2012 Projections:  3-2/3.35/1.25/65, 35 saves

12. Joel Hanrahan – Hanrahananananan is a bit of wild card.  I think he can save 40 games again with a 9 K/9 and a sub-2 ERA or he can save 25 games and a high-3 ERA.  Plus, drafting him is a bit like OD’ing on tryptophananananananan.  Snooooooooze.  (BTW, after this blurb, my spellchecker quit on me.  Just got up and walked out of the room.)  2012 Projections:  2-4/3.35/1.20/65, 34 saves

13. Ryan Madson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Street.  I call this tier, “I’ll probably own these guys on multiple teams; this tier name doesn’t rhyme and isn’t pithy.” You want guys that can become the top four for (stutterer!) next year.  Here’s your tier, snitches!  Assuming Madson doesn’t stumble for any extended period of time, he’ll be more valuable than this ranking.  The only big issue is Dusty waking up with his toothpick on the wrong side of his mouth and deciding Madson’s no longer his closer.  2012 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.22/60, 32 saves

14. Kenley Jansen – I have a bit of a soft spot for high upside mid-tier closers.  Or is that a hard spot?  It’s why I ended up with Kimbrel and Axford on multiple teams last year and will be eying Jansen this year.  As of right now, he’s not officially the closer, but I think it happens.  If you want him, you’re gonna have to draft him around here.  I say do it.  2012 Projections:  1-3/2.25/1.00/85, 25 saves

15. Jason Motte – I’m hoping with La Russa’s Feathered Hair moving on to grayer pastures that the Cards bullpen will be a lot more stable.  If I had Madson, Jansen and Motte on every team as my only closers, I’d be so happy I’d cancel all future shrink appointments, except the ones on Tuesday because I stepped on a sidewalk crack last week.  2012 Projections:  3-4/2.50/1.10/65, 27 saves

16. Huston Street – If you hold what I said about Heath Bell in the mirror, that’s what I have to say about Street and why I like him this year.  Of course, he can’t stay healthy without the help of magical potion or whatever it was that Ryan Braun took.  2012 Projections:  2-4/3.00/1.10/50, 30 saves

17. Andrew Bailey – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Thornton.  I call this tier, “Closers that I’m probably going to miss out on, but SAGNOF tells us saves are saves are saves so I could draft one of these guys.”  A few things separate Huston Street from Andrew Bailey.  1.) Tougher home park.  2.) Tougher league. 3.) There’s no 3.  4.) Bailey’s going much higher in drafts than Street.  2012 Projections:  3-1/3.30/1.10/50, 34 saves

18. Sergio Santos – If someone said they were a time traveler and they just returned from 2013 and Santos is now the top closer, I wouldn’t be surprised though I would wonder why they used their time traveling ability for something so trivial.  My problem with Santos is his walks and he has a capable closer behind him.  A few screw ups and he’s out.  I did flip-flop on Santos since the last time I wrote about him.  A girl and Grey have a right to change their mind.  I do know what I was thinking with that post.  Ks, Ks, Ks… And more Ks.  Now, I’m getting cold feet.  Stupid poor circulation!  2012 Projections:  3-5/3.70/1.24/80, 25 saves

19. Rafael Betancourt – Maybe once and for all he can shake the Cuddle Boy label.  Maybe I don’t want to risk it on my team to find out.  Fairly wellesley, Dame Betancourt!  2012 Projections:  4-2/3.50/1.10/65, 25 saves

20. Matt Thornton – He’s 35 years old and he has 20 career saves.  By season end, Hawk says about Thornton, “He gone!” and the White Sox try out Addison Reed or Jesse Crain.  2012 Projections:  5-4/3.75/1.22/65, 20 saves

After the top 20 closers, there’s a lot of names you should draft and I’ll go over all of them.  Here’s three that stand out:

Chris Perez – Coming off a season with a 5.88 K/9 and a 3.92 BB/9.  That’s the new blech.  Again, I would take any closer that had a job, but don’t let Perez’s 36 saves last year cause you to overpay.  2012 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/45, 25 saves

Joe Nathan – When he went to the Rangers, I wrote my Joe Nathan fantasy.  If you hold it up to a mirror, it’s very difficult to read.  2012 Projections:  3-4/3.75/1.18/45, 30 saves

Juan Abreu -  Who?  Did I mean to type Joan Abreu, Bobby’s loving Momsie?  I think I might’ve.  And I think Bobby’s Momsie is the favorite to get saves in Houston.  Whatever!  SAGNOF!  If someone’s getting saves, draft them!  2012 Projections:  1-4/2.70/1.28/70, 20 saves

We continue our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings with the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  There’s no 2nd baseman in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  At least by my calculation.  Some ‘perts are putting Cano in the top 10, but I see him just outside of the top 10, but then again 2nd base is packed to the rafters with production.  It looks deeper than the 1st basemen pool and I’m only being half-facetious.  It’s like all 2nd basemen slept at a Holiday Inn last night.  There’s 15 guys I would take and if I had a middle infield spot on my roster, I’d definitely look to put a 2nd baseman in there.  As with the previous ranking lists, tiers and my projections are noted.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Robinson Cano – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Robinson Cano’s projections.

2. Ian Kinsler – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Ian Kinsler’s projections.

3. Dustin Pedroia – See the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Dustin Pedroia’s projections.

4. Dan Uggla – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Utley (or Cuddyer, if he has eligibility).  I call this tier, “I see good value.  Draft one.”  This tier name sounds like I’m a handicapper for horse races.  Gambler’s Ruin is great on mud, put all your money on him!   Member when Dan Uggla was hitting, like, .180 and it was July and you were like, “Screw this, homie!  I’m going gangster on my team and trading Uggla for an Obama Chia.”  Then your neighbor saw that getting dropped off at your doorstep, stole it and Uggla went on to hit in like 40 games straight.  Nothing ever works out for you, huh?  Now I’m Worried you left on the oven after drying your pantyhose.  (That Twitter feed is a friend’s.  You follow now, thank you.)  Uggla wasn’t quite the hitter we saw during his hitting streak (no kidding!) but he isn’t a sub-.200 hitter either.  Or is it eyether?  Let’s call this whole thing off!  Wait, he is a 35 homer hitter.  I’ll take that and a box of Ding Dongs!  And, no, box of Ding Dongs isn’t a new Timberlake/Samberg song.  (Yes, that’s two days and two ding dong jokes.  My cup runneth over with ding dong jokes.  I am the ding dongiest!)  2012 Projections:  90/35/105/.250/3

5. Howie Kendrick – Sometimes when you go out on a limb, the limb breaks and you fall on your ass.  That might happen with Kendrick in 2012, but I’m going all in.  From 2010 to 2011 in 18 less games, he went from 10 homers to 18 homers and struck out more.  His HR/FB rate was high and he’s injury-prone.  It points to flukey.  I see a guy with 15 homer power, 15 steal speed, 100 runs and 75 RBIs potential that should hit around .290.  It’s okay, but what puts me over on him is he’s in the prime of his career so he should max out his power and look like Pedroia at a cheaper cost.  Oh, and one thing that’s been criminally under-reported, the Angels added Pujols.  You think someone would’ve talked about that.  2012 Projections:  100/18/70/.290/15

6. Brandon Phillips – Joey Votto’s gonna win the MVP and Brandon Phillips is going to be hoisted onto Jay Bruce’s shoulders next October with the team dedicating their World Series victory to their former pitching coach, Dick Pole.  Just so they can see people on Twitter snicker at his mention.  That’s how I see things playing out.  Phillips won’t be their regular season hero; he’ll be a piece.  The wily vet that plays 150 games a year and gets all those counting stats and has some power and speed that people credit more for their clubhouse leadership.  Whatever, B.P. is still greasing up some decent stats for his position.  2012 Projections:  90/20/85/.275/17

7. Chase Utley – Nah, he’s not winning the MVP again.  Well, I guess anything’s possible if he’s wearing one of Ryan Braun’s Ed Hardy t-shirts, but it seems like the best is behind him like J. Lo.  Then throw in you have no idea how long Ryan Howard is going to be out, then throw in Utley’s inability to stay healthy, then throw in his pomade, then throw in a leprechaun’s toenail and the steam that rises from the brew you threw all that in reads, “Utley should be avoided.”  Now what if I said I didn’t agree?  He’s never had a season of 120+ games where he’s been useless.  Granted, getting to 120 games has been an issue, but we knew going into last year he wasn’t going to be right.  When he did come back, his speed was fine.  Like he was never hurt.  His power was off, but so was his homers per fly ball.  His average was off, but so was his luck.  He’s going to get you 2nd to 3rd round numbers at a much cheaper price than he usually is.  BTW, if he’s bad this year, his career’s in trouble.  I think he knows that too.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.280/15

7 1/4. Michael Young – Only has 14 games at 2nd so he may not have eligibility in all leagues.  To see Young’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

7 1/2. Michael Cuddyer – Only has 17 games at 2nd base, so he gets a half ranking.  To see Cuddyer’s projections go to the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

8. Ben Zobrist – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Weeks.  I call this tier, “Others are taking these guys before me.”  I really don’t like Zobrist.  His stats are just too flaky for my tastes.  One year he hits .297 then .238 then .269.  Then he hits 27 homers then 10 then 20.  “Hey, fella, how about you just hit 17 homers and stop confusing Grey?!”  That’s you in the first row behind the Rays’ dugout because you’re protecting my honor.  Thx, btw!  (Don’t you love when someone abbreviates thanks as thx?  Gee, thanks so much for showing me your appreciation by almost writing a WHOLE SIX LETTER WORD!)  I’m ranking Zobrist later than most ‘perts because I don’t want him, but if he fell to me I would take him because he seems like he’s capable of a 15/15 season.  Plus or minus 15 homers and steals.  Yeah, he’s all over the map.  2012 Projections:  75/17/90/.255/17

9. Rickie Weeks – Stop me if you’ve heard this before– Stop!  I haven’t said anything yet, Random Italicized Voice.  I’ve heard, “Stop me if you’ve heard this before” before.  Here’s the games played for Weeks over his career — 96, 95, 118, 129, 37, 160, 118.  Throw out 37 and 160 and on average he plays in 118 games.  Or maybe that’s the median.  Or the mean.  I don’t know.  What I do know is he can’t stay healthy.  He can repeat his power output from last year and chuck in about 10 steals if he’s healthy, but that “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom.  2012 Projections:  65/18/50/.260/10

10. Danny Espinosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Kelly Johnson.  I call this tier, “Shine’s off these guys, but I like them.  Even if they might hit .240 collectively.”  At 24 years old, Espinosa hit 21 homers and stole 17 bases.  That’s the good news.  The very good news is he can hit more homers and steal more bases.  The so-so news is it might not be much more of either.  The bad news is he hit .236.  The not good or not bad news is his luck was neutral.  The “Is this really even news anymore?” news is Espinosa won’t ever hit for much of an average without luck.  The last bit of news is I’m not wearing pants.  2012 Projections:  80/24/90/.240/19

11. Aaron Hill – Here’s what I said towards the end of last year, “Hill looked to be an average issue hitter that could at least give you power.  Not this year.  His power completely evaporated.  Oddly enough, he doubled his line drive rate from 2010 and lowered his K-rate.  In short (which I only say after going long), Hill’s season made no sense.  Seriously, I can’t make heads or tails of it.  Yes, even in hindsight it’s not 20/20.  It will take some brass ones to go all in on Hill again next year, but I’m leaning that way right now.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Now, looking at Hill, I’m still no cyclops with a monocle.  What we do know is he hit .315 in Arizona in the 33 games after he was traded.  It’s something!  I don’t get where those 21 steals came from last year, but if it was some kind of deal with the devil, he forgot to specify to leave his power alone and the devil duped him.  You duping devil!  2012 Projections:  70/18/80/.265/15

12. Kelly Johnson – After a trade that sent Hill to the D-Backs and Johnson to the Jays, these two will be forever linked.  Or just for right now in the rankings.  Either way, let’s pretend we’re in the first semester of our junior year of high school and we’re taking the SATs.  The final question will send you to either Brown or nowhere because you refuse to have a safety school.  Question:  In 2008, Kelly Johnson hit .287.  In 2009, he hit .224.  In 2010, he hit .284.  In 2011, he hit .222.  What will he hit in 2012?  You know the answer; Brown’s within reach!  You say he’ll hit around .280 and… You’re wrong.  You then go on a 15-month bender that finds you waiting tables on an over-60 cruise ship and making out with grandmothers.  His good/bad alternating averages don’t mean anything, except it does tell us it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Johnson to hit something respectable.  2012 Projections:  80/20/70/.265/14

13. Jason Kipnis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ackley.  I call this tier, “Sleepers or guys that are overdrafted depending on how smart your leaguemates think they are.”  What I mean by the tier name is in leagues with people who prep the day before and just fly by the seat of their pants, this tier probably won’t be that known unless you’re in Cleveland, Seattle or Oakland.  In leagues where owners started prepping last November, there’s giant flashing lights on this tier’s players to the point where people will probably reach for them way too early.  As for Jason Kipnis, I already went over my Kipnis 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it enclosed with a giant heart on a bathroom stall.  2012 Projections:  80/14/60/.255/12

14. Jemile Weeks – Member when 2nd base was a speed position?  Was before Bret Boone started frosting his hair.  All of these 2nd basemen that are on the scene today probably idolized Boone and his frosted tips.  They probably even went as far to emulate him and frosted their hair too.  When Jemile frosted his hair, his classmates probably called him Sisqo, which is downright embarrassing, so he decided to rebel against the power 2nd baseman and work on his speed.  Or not.  Simply a theory.  Weeks reminds me a bit of Luis Castillo.  That takes some air out of your Jemile Weeks balloon, huh?  Hey, Castillo had some good years.  2012 Projections:  90/3/50/.265/30

15. Dustin Ackley – I’m having a real hard time understanding the hype on Ackley.  To the point where I’m not drafting him unless he falls pretty far.  He’s never hit more than 9 homers at any level of professional ball or stole more than 8 bases.  Granted, these were abbreviated seasons, but he’s also going to be playing his home games in a terrible hitting park.  I’m gonna let someone else take the chance that he shows his ceiling of 15 homers and 15 steals while expecting he shows something closer to… 2012 Projections:  80/12/55/.265/12

16. Ryan Roberts – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Beckham.  I call this tier, “Post-hype and no hype guys.  I guess I’ll draft them, but they’d have to be super cheap.”  Ryan Roberts reads to me like a Ryan Ludwick/Casey McGehee-type.  Never considered much of anything, then they explode on the scene at a late age, then they return to Back To Wherever You Came From-ville (which has higher real estate prices than I’m So Outta Here-ville cause of the influx of has-beens).  There should be a glossary term for these type of no hype players that only have one good year.  Suggest in the comments.  2012 Projections:  55/13/65/.245/15

17. Neil Walker – This guy isn’t far off from Ryan Roberts.  They’re pretty much flip-floppable (Made Up Word of the Day!).  But since Roberts just came off a better season, I put them in this order.  Could see Walker outperforming him in 2012, but not by much since Walker doesn’t have huge power or speed.  Not that Roberts does either… Whatever, I don’t like either, stop arguing with me!  2012 Projections:  70/12/80/.270/7

18. Gordon Beckham – Something that hasn’t been reported (or at least by me) is:  Could Ozzie leaving town have a positive impact on some White Sox players?  You know, the guys that he used to ball-bust.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Beckham comes around as a post-hype sleeper just to prove Ozzie wrong.  Am I betting a whole lot that that (stutterer!) is gonna happen?  Oh, hells no!  Beckham just came off a season where 21% of all of his fly balls were infield pop-ups.  That’s terrible.  In my opinion (and, really, if you don’t want my opinion, you’re probably reading the wrong site), a hitter can’t make worst contact than an infield pop.  By drafting Beckham, you’re basically saying that his last two years were a fluke and he’s going to fix everything.  Put the chances of that happening in one hand and the chances of it not happening in the other hand and you have two empty hands.  Can’t really weigh chances.  Maybe you shouldn’t have quit college to become a scale.  2012 Projections:  55/14/70/.260/5

19. Ryan Raburn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on you again.  I’m good at displacing blame.”  Bill James still believes.  He has Raburn’s 2012 projections down for 18/4.  Last year was the chance for Raburn to become relevant.  He’s going to be 31 years old for the majority of the 2012 season.  I got better things to do than draft a 31-year-old player who has never shown much of anything.  Not to mention, there’s been talk of him blahtooning with Ramon Santiago.  That’s nice, have fun!  2012 Projections:  40/12/50/.275/3

20. Brian Roberts – I’m sure Brian Roberts never thought he’d be passed on the rankings by a name that people used to mistakenly call him.  Here’s the world’s smallest violin.  Here’s me putting the world’s smallest violin on eBay.  Here’s someone Buying It Now for one cent and playing it just for Brian Roberts.  2012 Projections:  65/5/35/.260/12

After the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but these stand out, for better or worse:

Daniel Murphy – I left him off the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball and that top 20 went to, like, 30.  Honestly, seriously, Cliff Lee, I can’t imagine drafting Murphy anywhere.  If he hits in the beginning of the year, you can pick him off waivers in most leagues as a hot schmotato.  2012 Projections:  75/12/60/.275/5

Sean Rodriguez – I almost feel the same way about Sean-Rod as I do with Raburn.  Go reread Raburn’s blurb in the passive voice.  The one positive on Sean-Rod that Raburn lacks is age.  Sean-Rod will only be 27 this April.  If there’s no one left on the board, I’d take the flyer and hope Sean-Rod does something.  His K-rate tells me he probably won’t.  2012 Projections:  55/14/65/.230/10

Jose Altuve – I haven’t written a Jose Altuve sleeper post yet, but my Magic Eight Ball says, “There’s a chance you write a sleeper post on Jose Altuve.”  When I bought this Magic Eight Ball in 1989, I never understood why it kept saying that.  In the minors, Altuve showed he could get to double digit power and low 20′s steal-speed.  I’ve seen worse.  You feel me?!  If you do, could you stop?  I hate looking at Astros hitters for anything other than which pitchers to stream against them, but Altuve looks like he could have some sneaky value.  Now to figure out why my Magic Eight Ball keeps telling me to write a sleeper post for Ken Griffey Jr. Jr. Jr.  2012 Projections:  80/12/40/.265/24 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)

On Dancer!  On Prancer!  On Comet!  On–Oh, I didn’t hear you come in.  Welcome, reader!  Grab some egg nog and brandy it up to the fire.  The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings are not far away.  Right now, January Grey is throwing darts at a board to figure out where to place Matt Joyce.  Exciting!  In the meantime, let’s look at the players who have multiple position eligibility for this upcoming 2012 fantasy baseball season.  This took me far longer than it probably should’ve.  Can’t someone write me a program that sorts all the players by games played at a position?   Why do I need to go through every player on every roster?  It totally harshes my buzz.  I did this list of multi-position eligible players because I figured it would help for your 2012 fantasy baseball drafts.  I’m a giver, snitches!  I only listed players that have multiple position eligibility of ten games or more played outside of their primary position.  So this should cover Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, et al (not the Israeli airline).  Yes, Christmas came early this year.  (Or you actually got a (C)Hanuk(k)ah present this year, if you get your Jew on.)  Players with multiple position eligibility are listed once alphabetically under their primary position.  On a different post, I’ll make some comments about some of the players. In the mean’s while, you make comments in the comments.  Say that fast 117 times!  Anyway, here’s all the players with multiple position eligibility for the 2012 fantasy baseball season and the positions they are eligible at:

CATCHERS

Joe Mauer C (52), 1B (18)
Mike Napoli C (61), 1B (35)
Carlos Santana C (95), 1B (66)

1ST BASEMEN

Jeff Baker 1B (19), 2B (18), 3B (11), OF (11)
Jorge Cantu 1B (26), 3B (10)
Mike Carp 1B (34), OF (28)
Chris Davis 1B (31), 3B (26)
Aubrey Huff 1B (120), OF (16)
Conor Jackson 1B (53), OF (52)
Adam Kennedy 1B (36), 2B (34), 3B (27)
Mitch Moreland 1B (99), OF (34)
Michael Morse 1B (85), OF (55)
Daniel Murphy 1B (52), 3B (28), 2B (24)
Xavier Nady 1B (52), OF (10)
Steve Pearce 1B (16), OF (10)
Mark Trumbo 1B (149), OF (11)

2ND BASEMEN

Robert Andino 2B (94), SS (30), 3B (22)
Jamey Carroll 2B (81), SS (66)
Alexi Casilla 2B (56), SS (36)
Craig Counsell 2B (25), SS (23), 3B (14)
Brian Dinkelman 2B (11), OF (10)
Jason Donald 2B (19), SS (16)
Matt Downs 2B (27), 3B (19), 1B (13)
Tyler Greene 2B (25), SS (20), OF (10)
Alberto Gonzalez 2B (41), SS (30), 3B (21)
Jonathan Herrera 2B (62), SS (21)
Luke Hughes 2B (37), 1B (36), 3B (13)
Maicer Izturis 2B (49), 3B (37), SS (16)
Howie Kendrick 2B (108), OF (23), 1B (17)
DJ LeMahieu 2B (15), 3B (11)
Aaron Miles 2B (72), 3B (61)
Chris Nelson 2B (29), 3B (24)
Ramon Santiago 2B (75), SS (27)
Skip Schumaker 2B (95), OF (40)
Ruben Tejada 2B (55), SS (41)
Matt Tolbert 2B (36), SS (31)
Justin Turner 2B (78), 3B (36)
Wilson Valdez 2B (45), SS (25), 3B (24)
Jack Wilson 2B (45), SS (13)
Danny Worth 2B (15), 3B (13)
Ben Zobrist 2B (131), OF (38)

SHORTSTOPS

Emilio Bonifacio SS (67), OF (60), 3B (36)
Willie Bloomquist SS (59), OF (25)
Chase D’Arnaud SS (29), 3B (12)
Mike Fontenot SS (37), 2B (23)
Jed Lowrie SS (49), 3B (33)
Mike McCoy SS (26), OF (20), 3B (16), 2B (10)
Donnie Murphy SS (18), 3B (15)
Eduardo Nunez SS (50), 3B (40), 2B (16)
Trevor Plouffe SS (45), 2B (17), OF (13)
Luis Rodriguez SS (23), 3B (11)
Sean Rodriguez SS (60), 2B (48), 3B (30)
Angel Sanchez SS (46), 2B (19), 3B (10)
Justin Sellers SS (19), 2B (12)
Eric Sogard SS (14), 3B (10)
Ryan Theriot SS (91), 2B (35)

3RD BASEMEN

Mike Aviles 3B (46), 2B (27), SS (14)
Miguel Cairo 3B (58), 2B (13)
Alex Cora 3B (31), SS (16)
Daniel Descalso 3B (117), 2B (18), SS (13)
Mark DeRosa 3B (16), 1B (10)
Edwin Encarnacion 3B (36), 1B (25)
Logan Forsythe 3B (26), 2B (23)
Jerry Hairston Jr. 3B (49), OF (42), 2B (30)
Jose Lopez 3B (39), 2B (20)
Michael Martinez 3B (26), 2B (19), OF (14), SS (13)
Mark Reynolds 3B (114), 1B (44)
Ryan Roberts 3B (107), 2B (28)
Kyle Seager 3B (42), SS (10)
Scott Sizemore 3B (91), 2B (18)
Mark Teahen 3B (32), 1B (18), OF (15)
Miguel Tejada 3B (44), SS (42)
Juan Uribe (59), 2B (18)
Omar Vizquel 3B (29), 2B (16)
Ty Wigginton 3B (68), 1B (36), OF (27)
Josh Wilson 3B (13), SS (11), 2B (10)
Brandon Wood 3B (61), SS (19)
Michael Young 3B (40), 1B (36), 2B (14)

OUTFIELDERS

Jose Bautista OF (116), 3B (25)
Brandon Belt OF (32), 1B (31)
Lance Berkman OF (126), 1B (21)
Brian Bixler OF (34), 3B (14)
Kyle Blanks OF (37), 1B (13)
Michael Cuddyer OF (77), 1B (46), 2B (17)
Blake DeWitt OF (23), 2B (18), 3B (14)
Lucas Duda OF (46), 1B (43)
Willie Harris OF (44), 2B (10)
Eric Hinske OF (46), 1B (13)
Garrett Jones OF (90), 1B (34)
Don Kelly OF (58), 3B (45), 1B (15)
Mark Kotsay OF (54), 1B (11)
Carlos Lee OF (80), 1B (79)
Brent Lillibridge OF (59), 1B (22)
John Mayberry OF (61), 1B (18)
Eric Patterson OF (16), 2B (10)
Martin Prado OF (100), 3B (41)
Ryan Raburn OF (72), 2B (56)
Juan Rivera OF (73), 1B (38)
Luke Scott OF (45), 1B (12)
Nick Swisher OF (141), 1B (11)

One recurring question regarding my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings is why do I have so and so above so and so if I say I like the second so and so better than the first so and so?  Okay, so I’ve never received that exact question, because that’s massively confusing.   Here’s a variation of the so and so question that you might actually recognize.  If you look at my top 60 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball post, I have Ricky Romero below Brett Myers.  But I also say in that post how I wouldn’t own Myers.   So I’d take Romero before Myers? Yes and no.  I’d wait until Myers was drafted, then I’d draft Romero.  Why exactly?  That late in a draft I’m going with upside over the predictable.  Then why not just put Romero above Myers?  A few reasons:  1) If I only ranked players I’d own, there would be maybe a 100 total guys across all rankings.  2) Myers does have value because he has less risk, but, as previously mentioned, I don’t want less risk that late.   Some drafters may.  3) Romero may not even have the value I’m giving him there.  I’m being optimistic with his projections.  He’s a risky upside pick.   I’m putting flashing lights around a player’s name in the player blurb.

There was more I wanted to say on point 3, but I was beaten by Ron Shandler. And, hey, when you’re beaten by Shandler, you take your noogies. This article he wrote two years ago has so many great points I suggest you read it yourself, but I’m going to highlight a quote that I think pertains:

“…when our projection says $27, it is intended solely to make you say $22 when the bidding stops at $21 (assuming the context of normal market conditions). If we had published a projection of $23 or $24, that’s not enough of a psychological push for you to take that last leap of faith.”

This is what I’m doing with certain projections.  I’m attempting to push you towards certain players.  It’s why you see my Edinson Volquez projections are way above any other ‘perts.  I might be wrong on Volquez, but I’m pushing you towards him. But then Ricky Nolasco is above Volquez in the rankings? Yeah, random italicized voice, but he’s in a tier called, “Some ‘perts are drafting these guys.  I’m not.”  My commentary is as important as the actual rankings.  So do you want boring or risk and upside and maybe downside?  These are decisions you have to make for your own team.  (Oh, and you’ll see Volquez’s actually above Nolasco in the top 300.  How’s that for further confusion?)

It’s why I have Danny Espinosa ranked below Martin Prado but his projections say he’ll be better.  I think Espinosa will be better, but he has more risk.  It’s a limb.  You need to know how many limbs you’re going out on.  A few per team is fine. If every player on your team is a limb, your team is tipping over.

As said in the rankings post, there’s latitude amongst the rankings.  I’d say the top 20 have a latitude of around a +/- 2.  The top 50 around a +/- 10; the top 100 around a +/- 20, the top 150 with a +/- 40.  And so on.  The most important part of the rankings is my commentary.  If I like a guy, I’d reach for him in certain circumstances.  If I need an outfielder who gives me a 10/30 year, then I’m taking Peter Bourjos.  I would draft him 180th overall even though I have him at 229th. Each team is different.  The rankings are meant to be a jumping off point with my commentary and projections telling you where I stand.

Lots of people may not want to hear this, but there are no rankings on the planet that will tell exactly how to draft.  As soon as you draft your first player, you’re now drafting for your own team and every team is different.  If you draft Tulo and Carl Crawford with your first two picks, you shouldn’t draft Jacoby Ellsbury or Reyes unless they drop 100 picks and you plan on trading them for half their value.