Fantasy Baseball Advice

On each Sunday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go. Please ask the minor questions i.e. Should I drop Eric Hinske for Johnny Cueto? (yes, you should) in the comment section. It’ll be a quicker answer there from Grey or I (or even a regular commenter). Thanks, we really do appreciate your support and feedback. (But if you try to hug me, it might get weird.)

QUESTION:

Love the site, and wanted to ask you another trade question if possible.  12 team, daily transaction, mixed keeper (five) league.  There is a 1500 innings limit, hence my large number of setup guys.  Currently, I am rolling, big time, but looking down the road I was offered a trade today that I am considering, but would like some feedback.  Here’s my current lineup:

Webb, Brandon (P)
Jenks, Bobby (P)
Lincecum, Tim (P)
Guardado, Eddie (P)-Yeah, I know he’s gotta go soon…..
Franklin, Ryan (P)
Saunders, Joe (P)
Scherzer, Max (P)
Maine, John (P)
Cain, Matt (P)
Buchholz, Taylor (P)
McGowan, Dustin (P)

Soto, Geovany (C)
Napoli, Mike (C)
Jackson, Conor (1B)
Hudson, Orlando (2B)
Cantu, Jorge (3B)
Rollins-ss
Guillen-CI
Pedroia-MI
CLee-OF
Berkman-OF
Matsui-OF
Bay-OF
Werth-OF
Stairs-OF
Crede-Bench
D.DeJesus-Bench
C.Ianetta-Bench
Figgins-DL
Keppinger-DL

Currently, I am in the top four in everything ‘cept saves. I originally offered dude Matt Cain for Brian Wilson.  He comes back with Cain and Berkman for ARod, Brian Wilson, Delmon Young, and Brian Bannister. I’m thinking that I can swap out Bannister for Billingsley. Here’s dude’s roster:

P      Bannister, Brian (KC)
P     Wilson, Brian (SF)
P     Chamberlain, Joba (NYA)
P     Weaver, Jered (LAA)
P     Billingsley, Chad (LAD)
P     Myers, Brett (PHI)
P     Saito, Takashi (LAD)
P     Rivera, Mariano (NYA)
P     Rodriguez, Francisco (LAA)
C     Martin, Russell (LAD)
C     Towles, J.R. (HOU)
1B     Garko, Ryan (CLE)
2B     Phillips, Brandon (CIN)
3B     Mora, Melvin (BAL)
SS     Young, Michael (TEX)
CI     Hinske, Eric (TB)
MI     Iwamura, Akinori (TB)
OF     Bowker, John (SF)
OF     Young, Delmon (MIN)
OF     Patterson, Corey (CIN)
OF     Upton, Justin (ARI)
OF     Ethier, Andre (LAD)
Util     Giambi, Jason (NYA)
Bn     Headley, Chase (SD)
Bn     Gonzalez, Gio (OAK)
Bn     Bruce, Jay (CIN)
Bn     Gomes, Jonny (TB)
DL     Rodriguez, Alex DL (NYA)

Whaddya think?  Berkman certainly can’t keep up this pace, but damn is he good this year…..Thanks in advance and keep up the good work.  Your blog has been a must read for me

ANSWER:

Thanks for reading the blog and writing into us!

It’s good you’re looking down the road as it’s easy to stand pat after a big start.  I like your team but, obviously, some of your team’s success is from fast (and probably unsustainable) stars by Webb, Lincecum, Maine, Berkman, and your Soto/Napoli catcher tandem.

I’m going to go with the assumption that he won’t swap Bannister for Billingsley (who is on par with Cain – so what’s the point?).  I’d say Bannister and D. Young (at this point) are barely above the value of free agents so I don’t factor them in.  You’re looking at Cain/Berkman for B-Wilson/A-Rod.

I’d go for it.  A-Rod is a big upgrade over Cantu or Figgins and should be back soon.  If you’re in a Yahoo! league, you can move Figgins to 2B or MI when he gets back.  Cain/Wilson is close to a wash given how much you can gain from more Saves.  And, who knows, maybe Delmon Young comes around…he does have 20/20 potential.  Adding Billingsley makes it that much bettter of a trade…

Hurts to give up Berkman but I feel like you’re selling high.

Good luck!

On each Sunday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go. Please ask the minor questions i.e. Should I drop Chad Cordero for Santiago Casilla? (yes, you should) in the comment section. It’ll be a quicker answer there from Grey or I (or even a regular commenter). Thanks, we really do appreciate your support and feedback. (But if you try to hug me, it might get weird.)

QUESTION:

Thanks to Rudy for your advice in the comments on Sunday; this query’s a bit bigger, thought I’d submit it to Ask the ‘Perts. Any thoughts appreciated, sorry I tend to go on a bit.

I’ve got a pretty simple question, but it’s a like a Russian doll that keeps opening up more questions: What do you think of Jimmy Rollins’s speed value coming back?

If you think he’ll be fine, you can stop reading.

If not….

I’ve built my offense for balance, with Weeks, Rollins, and Markakis providing regular steals, Berkman(!) and Hermida chipping in occasionally, and Ellsbury & Pierre giving me options if I’m in a tight spot. Is it worth trying to maintain that balance when one of my biggest SB-threats may be reduced to a power-hitting SS?

I can probably still flip Markakis + Weeks for David Ortiz and Robinson Cano (and maybe a SP upgrade, say DiceK to Felix), use Ellsbury as a chip to upgrade power or  pitching as necessary, and try to own HR/RBI/XBH (plus maybe AVG + R if I’m lucky).

In terms of pitching, depending on how many good starts I’ve got, I’m currently flipping between trying for L/ERA/WHIP, and (if that doesn’t work) throwing everything I’ve got against the wall and hoping W’s, SV’s and K’s stick. I figure if I can upgrade to one more top-tier starter and another closer, I can own L/ERA/WHIP, with saves a little better than a coin-flip (This league uses 3 pitchers/day, no differentiation between SP/RP, 25 inning minimum). One advantage to getting rid of my speed-options on the bench is having more space for speculative RPers, and space to stream should my elite starters shit the bed, or if I’m facing the team that starts Peavy/Beckett/Halladay.

So, what are your thoughts on focusing on dominating certain categories (plus a little roster flexibility) vs. overall strength (but no flexibility)? It seems easy on paper to take 6 categories each week and hope for at least one tie, but it’s a pretty damn slim margin of error.

Full details:
12 team daily mixed league, 20 player roster, 25 innings minimum/week, no limit on player moves; 1 player/position on offense plus Util; 3 Pitchers (SP or RP).

R/HR/RBI/AVG/SB/XBH
W/L/ERA/SV/WHIP/K

Current ‘Balanced’ roster:
C Victor Martinez
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Rickie Weeks
SS Felipe Lopez
3B R. Zimmerman
OF L. Berkman
OF N. Markakis
OF J. Hermida
Util Conor Jackson

Bench
J. Dye
J. Ellsbury
J. Pierre
[J. Rollins DL]

D. Matsuzaka
C. Zambrano
Javier Vazquez
C. Buchholz
J. Weaver
R. Betancourt
B. Wilson
S. Casilla

Proposed Lineup:
Victor Martinez
David Ortiz
Robinson Cano
Zimmerman
JRoll
L. Berkman
J. Hermida
J. Dye/upgrade
C. Jackson/Adrian Gonzalez (whoever isn’t traded)
Backup power bat (Votto, M. Bradley, M. Alou currently available)

C. Zambrano
F. Hernandez/B. Webb/C. Hamels (via trade)
J Vazquez
Betancourt
Brian Wilson
Closer (via trade)
S. Casilla
C. Qualls (FA)
Streamer/speculative RP
Streamer

RUDY’S ANSWER:

I don’t think there’s one way to build a team.  My goal is to be competitive in all stats (too hard to win and punt a category – at least in non-H2H leagues).  So I just look for best value and, if i find enough of it, I end up w/ some flexibility.

Markakis/Weeks for Ortiz/Cano is a good trade in my book.  Tough to give up Markakis but OF are devalued in a 3 OF vs. 5 OF league more than 1B w/o a CI.  Ortiz ranks higher on my Point Shares – in draft terms, Ortiz is a high-2nd round in my book and Markakis is a 3rd/4th round pick.  Cano hasn’t looked good this year but seems to be a solid bounceback candidate.  And he’s ranked higher than Weeks.  So, yeah, I’d make that trade and move A-Gonz to UTIL (Conor Jackson is bench-worthy).

I’m not sure I mentioned it in my first reply/post to you, but I wouldn’t worry too much on SB.  You just need enough to stay competitive in it.  With the addition of XBH, it makes an SB-specialist that much more debilitating.  I’d definitely pick up Votto if he’s available (probably not anymore) as he could play OF and has 15 SB potential.

While it wouldn’t hurt to pick up another starter, it isn’t imperative.  I don’t think you have much else to offer if you trade Markakis.  I’d stick w/ that move and then play the FA wire.  You don’t need both Ellsbury and Pierre.  Dump or trade one for a usable arm.  Dump Weaver too – there should be better options out there.

Hope this helps…

On each Sunday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go. Please ask the minor questions i.e. Should I drop Chad Cordero for Santiago Casilla? (yes, you should) in the comment section. It’ll be a quicker answer there from Grey or I (or even a regular commenter). Thanks, we really do appreciate your support and feedback. (But if you try to hug me, it might get weird.)

QUESTION:

Now, I am not going to say which side of the deal I am on but here is a trade that went down in my league yesterday:

Team A agreed to deal Yovani Gallardo to Team B for Nick Markakis yesterday morning.  Unfortunately, we play in a league that votes on trades (I know…whole other topic there).  The commissioner announced the deal prior to the Brewers game.  Four votes trickled in before the news broke today regarding Gallardo being out for the year.

My question is this:

Should league owners be voting on this trade based on when the deal was agreed upon or based on circumstances that have occurred since then.

ANSWER:

Your league owners SHOULD be reviewing this trade without factoring in the injury news as that was the status of Gallardo when the trade was made.  Same as if Gallardo went out there and threw a no-hitter or gave up 8 runs in the first.

Whether they will or not is another matter.

I think there’s a fair argument that Markakis is worth more than Gallardo in any case.  Not enough that I would veto (Razzball is anti-veto) but the case could be made by a veto-friendly owner.  (The tough part is knowing whether the injury pushes them over the edge.)

Let us know how it turns out.

QUESTION:

In the 9-team 8×8 roto league with L, CG, K/BB, H, TB, and XBH added to basic Yahoo! 5×5.  I’m trying to become more independent of experts and pundits and such with my analyses and player projections, and I think I’m getting the hang of it.  What I would like to know is how you get your BAO, briefly, and what your BAO lines are for 2008.  I think I found your batting lines of

C – 47 / 13 / 57 / 2 / 0.273 (Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski)
1B – 63 / 18 / 68 / 1 / 0.279 (Matt Stairs, Conor Jackson, Aubrey Huff)
2B – 79 / 11 / 61 / 9 / 0.288 (Orlando Hudson, Brendan Harris, Mark DeRosa)
SS – 72 / 11/ 60 / 11 / 0.279 (Brendan Harris, Jack Wilson)
3B – 70 / 18 / 72 / 4 / 0.279 (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Reynolds, Aubrey Huff)
OF – 67 / 14 / 65 / 6 / 0.273 (Luis Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, JD Drew)

but I do not have anything for pitchers except a reference to Carlos Silva and 3.96 / 1.32.  What are the expectations for SP and RP BAO this year?

As for my team, I’ve done tons of trades since the beginning of the season and it’s changed quite a bit.  My current roster:

C – Geovany Soto
1B – Garrett Atkins
2B – Chase Utley
3B – Aramis Ramirez
SS – Ryan Theriot
OF – Matt Holliday
OF – Alex Ríos
OF – Carl Crawford
Util – Josh Hamilton
BN – Justin Upton
BN – Conor Jackson
BN – Evan Longoria
DL – Troy Tulowitzki

SP – Cole Hamels
SP – James Shields
RP – J. J. Putz
RP – Joe Nathan
P – Matt Capps
P – Javier Vázquez
P – Santiago Casilla
BN – Max Scherzer
BN – Garrett Olson
DL – Rafael Soriano
DL – John Lackey

Now for a few specific questions about my team, if you’d be so kind.  Is Putz something to worry about?  He pitched 94 and 95 mph consistently during that blown save, just never in the strike zone.  I already made an offer of Geovany Soto for Bobby Jenks today (Dioner Navarro and Jeff Clement are FA) just in case.  Next, I kicked Brett Myers to the curb the day before Gallardo blew his ACL.  Is the long toss really his answer, or is he trash this year?  I’m personally beginning to think he punched his wife on a ‘roid rage.  My other available options besides him are Jonathan Broxton, Wandy Rodríguez, John Danks, and Shawn Hill.  With Soriano likely losing his job to Smoltz I have also had an eye on Rich Harden, who may come back for 10 to 20 minutes in the near future.  What do you think?

Also if you see any glaring weaknesses in my team (besides CG, I don’t have one yet and am one of only 3 teams with none) let me know.

RUDY’S ANSWER:

Here’s the 2007 BAO for pitchers:
Starters – 11 W, 4.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 191 IP, 132 Ks
Relievers – 4 W, 6 SV, 3.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 68 IP, 61 K

(The 3.96/1.32 is the composite of the two)

The BAO methodology is laid out HERE.

I can’t provide it for 2008 as it requires having a full year of stats and then determining the replacement level totals for each stat for each position.  I could’ve done this based on 2008 projections but I moved to the Point Shares methodology (explanation and methodology HERE.  It’s an improvement in our eyes as it ties back to Roto points.

If you’re trying to do something based on BAO, I’d just work off the same totals as last year.  It’s too early to assume any major shifts between the two years.

I don’t see why you’d trade Soto for Jenks as you seem set on closers.  Too early to bail on Putz.  Nathan and Capps are solid.  I’d think Smoltz would close if he relieves, so Soriano would be out.  If you can get anything for him, go ahead.  Otherwise, he’s probably useless in your league.   Hamels, Shields, and Vazquez are a solid starting three.  Lackey is due back on May 14th.  Nice you got Scherzer.  Not sure why you have Olson – is he a friend of the family?  I don’t see any FA out there that would replace your pitching lineup so it’s not a big deal.

Tough break with Tulo.  Theriot is your weakest link but he’s been hot. Assuming no one is stashing SS on their bench, you should be able to rotate SS for a while.

Brian Bannister sports a .86 ERA, a miniscule WHIP and three wins AND beat Francisco Liriano. Can this continue? His strikeout rate is pretty poor, but in one of the ten team mixed leagues I’m in, I picked up Bannister today. It’s a league of owners that are better friends than they are fantasy players. I don’t assume Bannister is still out there in many leagues, but for a few of those leagues where players aren’t quick to the waiver wire or with team owners who don’t pick up Royals because of what they have meant in the past, Bannister might be out there, I’d pick him up even in those shallow leagues. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Nick Markakis – I’ve been walking around my house screaming, “I am Markakis! No, I am Markakis!” for the last two weeks trying to spur him on to greatness. (My girlfriend has been thrilled.) Finally, he went yard. I hope this is the sparkakis he needs to go on a hot streak. He’s a notorious slow starter so if he can start hot this year, we could be in for a nice ride.

Francisco Liriano – Ah, the aforementioned Liriano. As I said on Friday, you should’ve traded him on Saturday.

Alex Gordon – I hope he reaches the 20/20 season I predicted because I have him in just about every league except for my NL-only ones (and don’t think I didn’t try and sneak him through).

Cliff Lee – I think he’s on Rudy’s list of players who should be Asian given their name. Anyway, pitched a great game against the woeful A’s. He has the Twins, Royals and Mariners up next. Two out of three on the woeful scale isn’t bad.

Jon Rauch – He’s great for K, Whip and ERA help so I wouldn’t drop him just because Cordero is back. (Because, frankly, I don’t know how long Cordero is going to be back.)

Joe Crede – Do I think Crede finishes the season with 184 homers and 377 RBIs? Maybe not, but he could hit three more homers this week then reverts to the Crede we know and hate. I’d pick him up until he reverts if you have room. You gotta ride hot streaks.

Wandy Rodriguez – I played the Wandy start at home/sit on the road game last year. It worked out well for me.

Burke Badenhop – I watched him play before I put in my claim. Saying he’s a poor man’s Derek Lowe, is an insult to poor men everywhere.

Shane Victorino – While I didn’t get him in any leagues this year, because he ended up going much higher than I would’ve paid for him, I still love The Flying Hawaiian™ and I hope he gets well soon. Meantime, put him on your DL. I hope Victorino doesn’t prove to be injury-prone his entire career because he’s beginning to seem that way.

Javier Vazquez – Man, the ‘08 Tigers and ‘27 Yankees comparisons ended real quick.

Franklin Gutierrez – No idea if he’ll ever get a chance to play again regularly after starting so slow, but if he does, I might go back for more pain. He’s talented and is only 25. As of right now, I’m done with anyone who regularly gets benched for Jason Michaels.

Johnny Cueto – Well, we all knew there would be some speed bumps, but Jason Bay? C’mon, your farkin’ initials are JC. Honestly, he walked one guy and had some balls up in the strike zone. I’ll take my chances if every pitcher on my staff gives up one walk against six strikeouts in six innings.

On each Friday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go.

Hey,

I’m in a 12 team 5×5 Roto League. I’d appreciate any advice you have on possible lineup moves to make to improve my team.

C- McCann
1B- Hafner
2B/OF- Upton
SS-Reyes
3B/OF-Braun
OF/1B-Berkman
OF- D.Young
OF- Victorino
OF-Dye
3B- Blaylock

SP-
Harang
Shields
Burnett
McGowan
Cueto
Greinke
Lilly

RP
Papelbon
Lyons
T.Pena
C.Cordero
Moylan

Also, surprisingly Matt Kemp was dropped in my league and i’ll put a claim in on him. who should I drop? (I was thinking Lilly)

Thanks. I love your site and look forward to your insight.

P.S. If I traded Papelbon give me a list of 5 hitters who would be great to get for him.

GREY’S ANSWER

Thanks for writing in and frequenting the site. You rock. First off, drop Lilly for Kemp, you’re going to need him for a few of these potential trades work. Okay, now your team looks solid. The only trouble areas I see are Blalock (CI), potentially D.Young and your closers after Papelbon aren’t great. With the setup men on your team, I’m going to assume you’re quick to get to the waiver wire. This will be key if you trade away Papelbon. You have lots of position flexibility so there’s lots of trades you can do, which is good.

First possible trade — Blalock is by far your weakest piece, move Berkman to corner and trade Blalock and Papelbon for a top outfielder. I’d target Carlos Lee or Adam Dunn packaged with a third tier closer (Soria, Capps or Isringhausen, etc). Don’t settle for less. Don’t go after Crawford. Your team already has enough speed.

Second possible trade — Trade Papelbon and Blalock for a top third basemen or first basemen. I’d shoot for Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Derrek Lee, Mark Teixeira, Aramis Ramirez or Garrett Atkins, in that order.  Don’t settle for anyone less than Atkins.

Third possible trade — Trade Papelbon, D. Young and Blalock for Matt Holliday and try to get a third tier closer thrown in (again Soria, Capps or Isringhausen, etc).

The options where you don’t get a third tier closer in return are the riskiest. If you don’t get that next setup man to become a closer, you might be scrambling for saves. But no risk, no reward. My favorite option that I’ve suggested is the third because it nets you the best player I’ve suggested. If you can get Holliday, move Berkman to corner, snag Kemp and hopefully get a Soria throw-in, your team will be golden.