Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve added two new data grids to our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater to help you identify streaking hitters/pitchers (streaking in the non-Ferrellian sense):

• Hot Hitters:  This has hitting stats for the past 20 days of all hitters with 1+ AB.  Besides your typical 5×5 stats, it includes BABIP, OBP, OPS, SLG, and K%.  Players are ranked in descending order of their ‘Heat Index’ which is calculated using a mix of Hits, Runs, HRs, RBI, SBs, and ABs.  Each player is indexed against the 156th most valuable hitter for the period (156 hitters are active on a given day in a 12-team league).  While it isn’t possible for us to know if he’s available or not in your league, we provide pre-season and in-season $ estimates (based on 12 team 5×5 ESPN rosters) – the higher those values, the more likely a player is already owned.
• Hot Pitchers:  This has pitching stats for the past 20 days of all pitchers with 0.3 IP.  Besides your typical 5×5 stats, this includes FIP, Blown Saves, Holds, K/BB, K/9, and Quality Starts.  Players are ranked in descending order of their ‘Heat Index’ which is calculated using a mix of Wins, Saves, Earned Runs, Hits, Walks, Innings, and Holds.  Each pitcher is indexed against the 108th most valuable pitcher for the period (108 pitchers are active on a given day in a 12-team league).  Pre-season and in-season $ estimates (based on 12 team 5×5 ESPN rosters) are provided for each player to help identify players more likely to be free agents in your league.

The inaugural #1 hot hitters/pitchers are Carlos Gonzalez (edging out Josh Hamilton) and Johnny Cueto (edging out CC Sabathia).

As with our other Player Raters, the grids are sortable and you can filter based on position (including SP vs. RP).  The data should update every weekday by around 10AM EST – the last column will indicate the last day’s worth of games that are included.

If you see a player missing or set at the wrong position, please mention it in the comments section of the latest post.  Please note that players just called up may take a week or so to be added.

With great pride and bland post titling, I’d like to announce a Beta release of our fantasy baseball in-season player rater as well as two charts that highlight the differences between pitcher FIP vs. ERA and batter BABIP vs. AVG.

The player rater work is an adaptation of the Point Shares methodology I’ve used the last couple of years for pre-season and post-season player estimates.  Here is a link to a favorable test I did earlier this year vs. ESPN’s player rater methodology.  After some trial and error plus assistance from a variety of folks (Eric K at my favorite fantasy baseball escort service – EliteFantasyPlayers.com - and Doug at Dougstats.com among others), we now have a fairly automated system for updating in-season player rankings on a daily basis.

The Razzball Player rater is at –> Fantasy Baseball Player Rater and covers the following 5×5 league formats:

• ESPN Roster format (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team / 14 Team / 15 Team / 16 Team MLB
• Yahoo! Roster format (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/3 OF/2 UTIL/2 SP/2 RP/4 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team / 14 Team / 15 Team / 16 Team MLB
• AL-Only (2 C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team
• NL-Only (2 C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team

The table is ranked based on a players’ projected Point Shares (a player’s value in standings points vs. the average player with some factoring in of position).  Dollar estimates are provided both for in-season as well as comparisons vs. pre-season estimates.  Take the dollar estimates with a grain of salt for now – they should become more stable as the season goes on.  You can filter by position (P for all pitchers, -P for all hitters) and sort by any of the columns (1 click ascending, two clicks descending).

There are two pages focused on popular hitter/pitcher stats outside of 5×5 (popularity based on our pre-season poll results).  These tables are filterable/sortable as well.

• Hitting – OBP, SLG, OPS, Hits, Total Bases
• Pitching – Quality Starts, Holds, Losses

Lastly, there are two tables that highlight differences between pitcher FIP vs. ERA and hitter BABIP vs AVG.

• The pitcher table is sorted based on the ‘luckiest’ pitchers – i.e. pitchers ranked in descending order based on the difference between their FIP and their ERA.  For those wondering why I chose FIP vs. xFIP, I do not have access to the league-average fly ball to home run ratio nor pitcher HR:FB ratio.  You may also find that my FIP estimates are slightly off from other sources – this is mainly because I cannot currently separate out intentional from non-intentional walks but it can also be due to how the ‘constant’ is applied to bring the league average FIP in the 3.20 range.
• The hitter table is sorted based on the ‘luckiest’ hitters - i.e. hitters ranked in descending order based on the difference between their current AVG and their expected AVG.  A hitter’s expected AVG is calculated by applying a hitter’s 3-year BABIP to their in-season performance.  3-year BABIP was used as this stat does vary per hitter based on various factors (line drive rate, their speed, GB to FB ratio, etc.) but a hitter’s BABIP tends to be steady in the long run.  Hitters with less than 100 AB in the previous 3 years are given the league average BABIP of .300.

I’ll do my best to keep these tables updated daily (generally by 10 AM EST).  The last column of each chart reflects the last games included so it will be transparent when it has not been updated for a couple days.  While I will do my best to keep on top of the moving pieces, please do not hesitate to provide the following information in the comments section of Grey and/or my posts:

• Any missing players from the tables (for now, I’m including any hitter/pitcher with 1+ AB or 0.1+ IP.  That minimum threshold will likely increase as the year goes on.
• Any position eligibility changes based on 10 game in-season eligibility (I know Yahoo! is 5 games but prefer to make one change across both).  For hitters where position eligibility seems imminent (e.g., Jesus Montero at catcher), I include the additional position and add an asterisk at the end of it.
• Any wonky data or functionality

Other potential FAQ:

• Will you ever have a ‘rest of season’ player rater?
• Maybe.  Would be dependent on a respected projection source providing an uploadable file that is 1) updated on a regular basis, 2) accounts for expected playing time, and 3) is free.
• Will you create a dynamic player rater to reflect any conceivable league format?
• Not planning on it.
• Was your wife turned on by this accomplishment?
• Nope.  She prefers it when I go Don Draper and fix shit around the house in a white t-shirt.

During the offseason, I wrote several posts criticizing the ESPN Player Rater and went as far as create my own to critique it.

Below are the links to these posts. Interesting reading if you’re a fantasy baseball or stat junkie. Much less interesting than smack if you are just a junkie.

Part 1: How Valid Is The ESPN Player Rater?

Part 2: Are Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Correctly Valued By Player Raters?

Part 3: How Do You Value Fantasy Baseball Hitters?

The whole journey to prove/disprove the ESPN Player Rater eventually led me to the Point Shares concept that is the foundation of my 2008 drafting and player valuation.

Anyway, I checked in on the ESPN Player Rater in 2008 and it looks like they listened to good ol’ Rudy. Some of the improvement I’m seeing:

• Negative values (particularly in AVG, ERA, WHIP) – Where 2007′s version would have a floor at 0, the current rater penalizes very bad performance. CC Sabathia currently sports -3.31 points in ERA and -2.64 in WHIP.
• No arbitrary cap at 5 points per category – I’m seeing some category leaders at 3 and Michael Bourn at a 7.64 for SB.

It’s too early to do a full assessment of the methodology. I figure I’ll do a Point Shares update at the All-Star Break and compare it then. But given the shit I gave ESPN during the offseason, it’s only fair that I give them credit for coming to their senses (and listening to me).

Has anyone in Razzball Nation been using ESPN for their fantasy league? If so, post your feedback! Grey and I went cold turkey on ESPN FLB after last year’s debacle (first two weeks of stats were fried – I had to calculate the data offline and make year-end adjustments). But I thought their new platform was pretty good. Interesting to hear what the rest of y’all think.

Oh, and just in case the worldwide leader is listening, add smart people to Baseball Tonight. Replace Eric ‘The Emmitt Smith of ESPN Baseball” Young and John Kruk with guys from ESPN.com like Keith Law and Rob Neyer. If you must pander to the masses, go with some tail like Erin Andrews.