Fantasy Baseball Advice

Clayton Kershaw has more Ks than innings.  Call me a K whore all you want, but that alone is enough for me to get excited about Kershaw in 2010.  Do I need to say more?  Probably not, but I will.  He’ll be 22 in March of 2010.  A 21-year-old who threw a season of a sub-3 ERA season in 170 innings.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious, right?  Yeah, they are.  For a long time I’ve been wavering between Kershaw and Max Scherzer.  Well, I’m ready to choose one now.  They’re both young.  (Though Kershaw’s almost four years younger.)  They both strike out hitters more than a batter per inning.  (Though Kershaw’s a bit better this year.)  One sounds like a Brit, one sounds like a Nazi.  In the morning, they both go to the local mall and walk with the seniors.  Wait, I’m misreading my notes.  They walk a lot of batters, not bitties.  Kershaw’s walk rate was actually worse than Scherzer.  So why am I choosing Kershaw?  The Dodgers limited his innings towards the end of the year and the Diamondbacks abused poor Scherzer.  In 2008, Scherzer threw 109 innings between the majors and minors.  In 2009, he threw 164.  That’s a pretty significant jump.  Now I’m not saying I’d keep Kershaw over a known hitter commodity, but I would consider keeping him for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.  Definitely over Scherzer.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Psyche!  Before we get into that, I wanted to point out a scheduling adjustment.  Fridays used to be our weekly Buy/Sell.  Well, that’s gone for the offseason and keepers will now be on Friday.  As they say in Jamaica — carry on (your head)!

Matt Wieters – .362/.425/.511 in September.  Just wanted to get the hype going early.  Carry on.

Rajai Davis – Sure, steals don’t have a face.  But, if they did, they’d look a lot like Rajai Davis.  Chances are if you own him, you have him on the very cheap.  A cheap guy that could get you 50 steals in 2010?  Where do I sign up?  (I can’t wait until someone finds us who Googles:  Where do I sign up? + cheap Nazi bitties)

What Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb all have in common is obvious.  They all belong in the Pitchers Who Shouldn’t Speak At Next Year’s Fantasy Baseball Symposium For Fear Of Being Attacked category.  To a certain respect, Ricky Nolasco is right there with them.  He came out of the gate looking like a three-legged pony that wore a ribbon sponsored by Elmer’s Glue.  The reason why I point out Nolasco as a potential keeper is there’s a good chance someone dropped him in your league when he was sent to the minors, so you might have him for a free round pick or very cheap.  If that’s the case, giddy up, pony boy!  I like Nolasco’s potential for next year.  Through 147 innings, he has a 147/37 K/BB ratio, that’s outstanding.  Any time a pitcher is throwing a K an inning and keeping his walks in check, he’s worth considering for next year if you have him on the cheap.  He may just be my Wandy for next year, appearing on a majority of my teams.  Also, the reason I didn’t like him in the beginning of this year (high innings in 2008) is the reason why he’s now appealing in 2010 (low innings in 2009).  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Joey Votto – He was dealing with some shizz earlier in the year that cost him over a month of the season.  So let’s say he had his average month of 5 homers during that month off, then he’d be blowing his 2008 season out of the water and taking that natural step forward many predicted.  For a player who will only be 26 next year, don’t be thrown off by the late season tailspin this year.  He’s still very capable of being a 30 homer, 10 steal, .300 average 1st baseman.  With upside from there.

Chris Davis – I’ll be perfectly honest.  I love when guys fail after they are hyped.  This allows their value to fall and people to begin to forget them.  I’m actually kind of excited to even see if Josh Hamilton falls far enough in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts for me to have a chance at drafting him.  The same goes for Davis.  Last preseason, I talked about how Davis was overrated and ended up with Mini Donkey on all of my teams as a replacement.  That worked out okay.  With the emphasis on the imaginary “very, very” before okay.  In 2010, it might just be Davis’s turn to strikeout 200 times and give decent production.  As a keeper (I’m assuming he was dropped and you have him for cheap), Davis is looking much better for next year.

Before I cover Adam Lind (with words, not a blanket), I want to clear something up about these Thursday keeper posts.  I like Lind, but between him and, say, Hanley, it’s no contest.  I’m talking about potentially marginal keepers here.  Not slam dunks.  I could see some people worrying that Lind may not be able to repeat his 2009 season.  Contraire, Robespierre.  Adam Lind took a while to get going in the majors, but he’s always had this pedigree.  In five seasons of the minors, he had a .380 OBP and a .318 average.  In his fist full season of the majors where he’s actually seemed to be comfortable, he’s headed for a 30/95/.300 season.  Next year, he’ll be 27 and should be able to take a slight step forward.  Think 35/110/.310.  Also, he’s been batting third a lot recently.  If he can get off to a hot start next year like he did this year, he could cement his place in the three hole for the better part of the season, which will help his counting stats.  Have You Lost Your Flippin’ Mind predictions for 2010:  100/35/120/.310.  No steals, which is a shame, and no great shakes on his eligibility, but those numbers aren’t far off from 2nd round-type numbers.  (BTW, you’re reading a fantasy baseball site that alludes to Linda Ronstadt.  Don’t you feel dirty?)  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Aaron Hill – Do I smell a theme? No, that’s lunch.  I mean, the Blue Jays. Ah, yes.  They smell like rotisserie chicken. No, that really is lunch.  Hill will only be 28 at the start of the 2010 season.  As I’ve been saying just about the whole season, I don’t think the 30+ homers this year is a fluke.  At second base, you can do much worse.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate has 15 homer power and 35 steal speed.  Shane Victorino just called and said he wants his stats back.

This week we’re starting a new weekly column that will be here every Thursday, it will be all about fantasy baseball keepers. Since many fantasy baseball keeper leagues don’t decide on their keepers until the start of the new season, I figured I’d go over some fantasy baseball keepers from now until next spring. If you can remember all the way back to February, Hillary Clinton was headed for the Presidency, the Indiana Jones trilogy hadn’t yet been ruined and Cueto was better than Volquez. Well, we know what happened on the way to the Prom. In a surprise move, Volquez was asked by the Head Cheerleader and went from total geek to total chic. Meanwhile, someone shit Cueto’s house. Unfortunately, at the Prom, someone noticed Volquez was actually doing the African Anteater Dance and not some cool hip dance that he just extemporaneously (Word of the Day) came up with, while Cueto went back to mowing lawns, saved a few dorks and eventually received a slow clap from the whole league.

In the minors, Cueto averaged over a K/IP and his walk rate was sick. (That’s sick as in very healthy, not sick as in sick.) Volquez was not the better pitcher coming into the year because of his wildness. Unusable wild? No, he showed that in the beginning of this year. Now, as the year comes to a close, Edinson/Edison/Julio Reyes is taking the slow Green Mile walk to a 3.00 ERA, while Cueto has quietly strung together some quality starts. So don’t be shocked if next year Cueto has more value than Volquez next year. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for ‘09:

Andy LaRoche – Who know how JD Drew kinda made you want to draft Stephen Drew even though Stephen hasn’t shown too many signs? Well, reverse that shizz for the LaRoches. Andy’s better than his schmohawk older brother.

Jeff Franceour – I’m just not convinced it’s over for this dooode. If you’re out of it in your NL-Only keeper and you can get Frenchy for very cheap, like, one dollar cheap. I’d do it. Not a huge endorsement, but he’s still young.

Alexei Ramirez – Sometimes you have to watch a guy to fall fully in love with him. Well, I watched Alexei. He looks like premenopausal Alfonso Soriano.

Adam Lind – The dealer’s showing Pat Burrell. That’s a push.