Fantasy Baseball Advice

This was a fantasy baseball league put together by the FSWA, Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  (Grey is in the FSWA and Rudy is unlicensed.  Hopefully they don’t kick out Grey for hiring non-union labor.) We drafted this league together, which made for some disagreements in our two styles of drafting.  That was quickly mended when we realized it was only a 12 team league and we could get a stacked team no matter how many top chefs were cooking in this quickfire challenge.

C:  Mike Napoli
C:  Brandon Inge
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Jose Lopez
3B: Chipper Jones
SS: Ryan Theriot
MI: Felipe Lopez
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Carlos Beltran
OF: Carlos Quentin
OF: Adam Dunn
OF: Cameron Maybin
OF: Ryan Spilborghs
UT: Fred Lewis
Bench: Colby Rasmus

P: Jonathan Papelbon
P: Felix Hernandez
P: Scott Kazmir
P: Jonathan Broxton
P: Erik Bedard
P: Troy Percival
P: Wandy Rodriguez
P: Randy Wolf
P: Fernando Rodney
Bench: Kenshin Kawakami, Joey Devine, Chad Cordero, David Aardsma
DL: Max Scherzer

OVERALL THOUGHTS:

First off, this league is 5×5 with SLG and OBP instead of HRs and Average.  We put up a bit of a fight to have that changed, but our protests fell on deaf ears.  With those two category changes, it makes our Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn selections even purdier.  Put them up to the light; they shine!  It doesn’t help the Inge selection that much, but a bit.

We selected eleventh overall and Miguel Cabrera almost made it to us in the first round after Manny Ramirez was taken 4th and Jimmy Rollins was taken 6th.  As confusing as Manny was in the 4 slot, it wasn’t as confusing as Rollins over Howard, Miggy, Braun, Utley and Sizemore.

Pitchers flew off the board in this league.  To give you an idea, Nolasco, Beckett, Billingsley and Lackey all went in the 6th round.  (This was after Lackey’s injury had surfaced.)  We decided to go with the upside of Kazmir and F-Her.  (Note:  We drafted Devine prior to the injury announcement.)

All told, we drafted 5 Mariners.  Sucky guys on sucky teams is the new black!  Luckily, Endy Chavez was not one of the drafted Mariners.  (When Don Wakamatsu named Brandon Morrow the closer, we dropped two of our Mariners.  Betcha you can guess which two.)

Our team is well-balanced with power and speed.  And we have Felipe Lopez, what’s not to love?  Our pitching is riskier than either of us would’ve preferred, but neither of us wanted to get caught up in a run with pitchers flying off the shelves that early.  In a 12 team league, we should be able to fix potential pitching holes with waiver wire pickups.

Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Roto Arcade invited Razzball into their 16-team mixed league that they are christening a ‘Pro-Am’ since 9 of the players are fantasy bloggers and 7 are avid players from Fantasy Baseball Cafe boards and Y! Roto Arcade commenters.

Andy posted all the rosters as well as some Q&A over in this post.  It’s a good read.  Some post-draft thoughts:

• 16-team drafts take FOREVER if you’re picking on one of the ends.  We were 14th.  Luckily, Grey and I tag-teamed it and kept ourselves entertained with a running commentary on the picks.
• You either have to be a little more flexible in 16 team leagues or be willing to accept bad value.  We ended up following our BRAN Strategy but had to improvise when Peavy and Webb failed to reach us with the 46th pick (3rd round).  We ended up mirroring my FantasyPros911 NL-only draft from a week ago and going Catcher crazy.  McCann was at the top of both our catcher lists and we liked him better than settling for Haren.  We ended up snagging Pablo Sandoval (C-eligible in Y! leagues) in the 8th round as we were incredulous that he was still available (guys like Napoli were coming off the board by the 10th round).
• These guys were middle infielder crazy:  Furcal in the 4th.  Figgins, Tulo, and Uggla in the 5th.  Cano, Jeter, and Michael Young in the 6th.  You get the idea.  Never thought twice about waiting it out.  Like Kelly Johnson in the 9th round (122nd pick).  Freddy Sanchez (19th round) and Elvis Andrus (20th round) should chip in for AVG and SB respectively.
• Outfield dries up quick in a league this big.  You know it’s bad when you’re forced to draft Frenchy in the 17th round.  But Beltran/McLouth/Maybin/Lewis are a solid first four and felt Rasmus in round 22 (something like pick #340) is a nice upside play.
• Not loving our pitching staff.  I like our Shields/Cain/Cueto troika less than my 12-team NL of Volquez/Cain/Scherzer.  I hope Carmona doesn’t make me look bad for championing him in the 16th round.  At least our relief situation is solid with Lidge, Francisco, and Devine (edit: doh!).

We’re in the final days of fantasy baseball draft season and I’m taking a breather this weekend to survey my squads. This season’s drafts have been a lot more fun than last year’s as I’ve left the comfortable womb of undergrad 10-12 MLB drafts to graduate school formats like 12-team single league and 16-team mixed leagues. Going that deep in drafts makes you contemplate such unsavory questions as “Should I draft a Nationals pitcher?” and “Who will be Larussa’s go-to utility guy?”

I’ll cover the FantasyPros911 12-Team NL Blogger League in this post and cover the Yahoo! Roto Arcade 16-team mixed league in a separate one.

For those unfamiliar with FantasyPros911, they are running two expert leagues but relegated us to the ‘2nd division’ as revenge for being good friends with Chuck D who has been (unfairly) critical of their site.  Anyway, we were delighted to have the opportunity to test our fantasy baseballin’ skillz  with the other fine fantasy bloggers in this league.  (Complete draft results here)

It was the traditional auction style draft where you have $260 for your roster and 7 reserve picks (we’re still trying to finish up the last 2 rounds).  While I think my player values were right on (especially after comparing against the NL LABR Draft), I had a few missteps on draft strategy and execution.  I went in with a strategy of getting players at or below my estimated value and avoid big buck players in favor of a balanced squad.  My fellow bloggers helped me avoid any temptations to draft a top player by overbidding just about every top player.  Hanley went for a ridunkulous $54 (my valuation $39).  Albert Pujols for $49 (my valuation $36).  David Wright went for $48 (my valuation $41).  Jose Reyes for $45 (my valuation $38).  You get the idea.  This left me on the sidelines in the beginning except when it came to drafting catchers.  I don’t particularly like investing $ or high draft choices on catchers because they get more time off, have greater injury risk, and tend to slow down in the 2nd half.  But you have to mix things up a bit when 24 catchers are slotted to be drafted and I only had 13 at 300+ ABs.  After I got outbid for Brian McCann ($27), I snagged Russ Martin and Geovanny Soto for a combined $40 (I valued them at a combined $60).

After the first wave of great players, the bidding got more tentative and I started spending my dollars pretty quickly.  My biggest mistake was failing to realize you can’t move players down to your Reserve.  I survived clogging my 1B slot with a $3 Nick Johnson by snagging Cantu for my 1B/3B slot.  I lucked out after stupidly clogging my SS spot with Aaron Miles (I started and ended the bidding at $1) by snagging Alex Gonzalez in the reserve draft.  My early giddiness at getting Maybin for $13 might have led to risky OF bids on Colby Rasmus ($8) and Andrew McCutchen ($3).  Of course these guys could earn their value (they got drafted at the same $ in NL LABR) but I exposed myself to too much risk and could’ve used a safer, higher AVG guy to balance off Uggla and Reynolds.  I minimized some of that risk by snagging Seth Smith in COL with the first reserve pick but if these guys end up spending the 1st half either in the minors or on the bench, I’m in trouble.

As for pitching, I’m very happy with my starting staff.  I would’ve loved to anchor the staff with a Santana, Peavy, or Webb but I got two potential aces in Volquez and Cain for the price of one of those guys.  I’ll be lucky to get 150 IP out of Scherzer ($11) but I like him better than Cueto and Parra (both who went for $9).  I overpaid for Maine as it was later in the draft but had the money at the time.  Liking my depth at SP with Randy Wolf, Phillie prospect J.A. Happ and a Petco Park pitcher in Baek.  Not psyched about my relief crew of Francisco Cordero, Huston Street, and the two ugly options in STL (Franklin, McClellan) but hopefully I can get a couple points out of them.

I’ll write a couple posts throughout the year with updates from this league.  If I win, I get to move up to the ‘pert division in 2010.  I’m all a-tingle!

This was, as they say in Italy, an Experto Callaspo AL-Only draft.  What AL-Only means to me? Thanks for asking, random italicized voice.  It means I probably won’t have one pitcher that I would usually have in a mixed league.  I contemplated about how I wanted to go about this draft.  It’s good to have a game plan, ya know?  So I decided, since I don’t really like AL pitchers, I would get solid pitchers anyway.  Zoinks!  I figured that solid pitchers would be at a premium and if I got my share, I’d be in good shape.  Also, from my knowledge of other ‘pert drafts, no one drafts starters early, so while they’re zigging, I decided to zag.  “Knowing your opponents’ weaknesses is half the duel,” Aaron Burr.  When you see my pitchers, you’ll see I didn’t really get that many great ones, but for AL-Only I have a top three pitching staff going into the season.  Then there’s the strategy I employed for hitters.  I decided to punt catchers, of course, and up the middle.  Punting the MIs was because I knew who I wanted late and I knew guys like Alexei Ramirez would go way early (He went in the 2nd round.)  Okay, before I get to my thoughts I jotted down during the AL-Only draft, here’s my co-conspirators:

Fantasy Baseball Dugout
The Fantasy Man
Fantasy Sports Commissioner Training Institute
Rotohelp
Sporting News
ProFantasy Baseball
Roto Central
Advanced Fantasy Baseball
Fantasy Sports R Us
Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Fanball

Here’s my team:

C:  Taylor Teagarden (19)
1B: Carlos Pena (3)
2B: Asdrubal Cabrera (15)
SS: Jed Lowrie (11)
3B: Brandon Wood (12)
MI: Wilson Betemit (23)
CI:  Jason Giambi (10)
OF: Carlos Quentin (1)
OF: Carl Crawford (2)
OF: Vernon Wells (5)
OF: Franklin Gutierrez (14)
OF: Brett Gardner (16)
UT: DeWayne Wise (25)
P:  James Shields (4)
P:  Joba Chamberlain (6)
P:  John Danks (7)
P:  Brad Ziegler (8)
P:  Brandon Lyon (9)
P:  Anthony Reyes (13)
P:  Dan Wheeler (17)
P:  Kevin Millwood (18)
P:  Rafael Betancourt (22)
Bench: Melky Cabrera (20), Wladimir Balentien (21), Matt Thornton (24), Jeremy Sowers (26), Damaso Marte (27)

Notes I jotted down during the draft:

ROUND 1 & 2 – I get Carlos N Carl with my first two picks.  Yuck.  Seriously, I hate AL-Only.  I have no idea where all the good players have gone, but I think it’s into the NL. (To make matters worst, I drafted the first five rounds, then we needed to do it over because something was wrong with the draft room. (I once loved you, CBS!  Nevermore.)  Then, to make matters even worse, our do over was supposed to be a shot by shot remake of the original, but someone decided to make it an adaptation.  At one point, one of the ‘perts asked another ‘pert if they could see they were giving them the middle finger.  Fun times!)

ROUND 3 – I wanted lots of power from my corners.  That became a pipe dream when Aubrey Huff was drafted ahead of me in the 3rd (!) round.  Drafting Carlos Pena in the third round is a tragic-comedy.

ROUND 4 – James Shields. It was between him and Liriano.  And I got to draft both at one point, but that was the first AL-Only ‘pert draft that we will never speak of again.  Actually, I’m pleased with Shields.

ROUND 5 – Vernon Wells.  This is barely an endorsement of Wells, but he was the last outfielder that’s halfway reliable and he’s supposed to be healthy by April.  Of course, that will turn into June any day now.

ROUND 6 – Joba Chamberlain.  This is really all I needed for my AL-Only staff and the next guy is gluttony at its worst.

ROUND 7 – John Danks.  Hey, Gluttony, good to see you.  Okay, before you call me out for this. Here’s the guys that were taken after him that I could’ve had:

Kevin Slowey – I want Danks over him.  You do too.
Nick Swisher – Okay, but doesn’t have a secure job and will bat .240.
Mike Jacobs – I already drafted the Latin Jacobs.
Orlando Cabrera – Eh.
Denard Span – Blah.
Frank Francisco – Solid pick.
Scott Baker – On the risky pitcher list.
Troy Percival – Too early for him.
Fausto Carmona – Danks is twice the pitcher of Carmona.
Carlos Gomez – Great pick, but because of Crawford I couldn’t have made it.
Gavin Floyd then Joe Saunders then Crapolanco… You get my point.

ROUND 10 – Jason Giambi.  Carlos Pena’s baby daddy.

ROUND 11 & 12 – Jed Lowrie and Brandon Wood.  A) They have the superfecta of eligibility, which is crucial for a single league.  B) They have upside.  C) Would you really have wanted Crapolanco and Orlando Cabrera over these two?  D) As T.J. Lavin would say, “They are both killing it in spring training.”  (Speaking of T.J. Lavin, The Challenge is back in two weeks.  I can’t wait.)

ROUND 13 – Anthony Reyes. This could be the steal of the draft.  Or a guy I drop by May.  Stay tuned!

ROUND 14 – The Big FraGu.  At this point in the draft, there wasn’t even a lot of guys who had starting jobs let alone one that could go 15/15.  Granted, my average is in the dumpster at this point.

ROUND 15 – As…DRUBAL!  I almost took him in the 10th round, but I quickly saw where everyone else’s team stood with middle infielders and I realized I could wait.  This is Grey.  This is Grey on his toes.  (BTW, it’s really sad when you get this excited about Asdrubal Cabrera.  It’s AL-Only.  Small victories.)

ROUND 19 – Taylor Teagarden.  Honestly, I don’t know what his playing time will be like, but if he hits 10 HRs, I win with this pick.  Not to mention, he’s a better defender, so he could see 250+ ABs.  Think Napoli last year.

ROUND 21 – We like to Wladdy… We like to Wladdy…

ROUND 23 – Wilson Betemit.  I think he hits 15 HRs in a super-utility role.  Or flat-out takes over for Josh Fields.  Or I drop him and fill-in my MI spot with someone else.  At this point, Punto, Bobby Crosby and Zobrist were being drafted so this pick is really no harm, no foul.

ROUND 26 – Jeremy Sowers.  For this late in the draft to get a starter on a good team– Oh, who am I kidding?  I’ll probably drop him by April 7th.

Hey, I’m drafting my fantasy baseball team on March 4th and I got the first pick!  Woo-Hoo!  I got A-Rod! Sorry, random italicized voice, you’re going to need to rethink some things.  There’s some injury news.  The 2009 fantasy baseball rankings have been updated.  A-Rod is no longer your number one fantasy baseball pick for 2009.  Hanley Ramirez is currently wearing the laurels and being fitted for the toga.  A-Rod’s hip surgery will have him out until May.  So what does this do for A-Rod for 2009 fantasy baseball?

Now A-Rod goes from a precarious number one overall to a tentative 2nd rounder and a very confident 3rd rounder.  Think about the replacement 3rd baseman you can have for a month and then fill-in A-Rod in May.  Say Sandoval at 3rd base for April, move Sandoval to catcher (if eligible) in May and then slot in A-Rod the rest of the way.  You’re getting 5/6 A-Rod, 1/6 Sandoval.  It’s early-March.  The season is looooooong — yes, seven oh’s.  A-Rod will be out until May/June.  He’s not someone to avoid completely, but he does need to be discounted.  This WILL (caps for emphasis and the people reading over your shoulder) hurt his steals a bit.  Hip surgery can’t be a good thing for speed.  It is a tough pick.  Like Pujols last year.  Or trading for Manny sometime in June last year when he looked washed-up.  Pujols won the MVP and Manny nearly did in two and a half months.  Think of A-Rod as Longoria last year or Braun two years ago, only you know more what to expect from A-Rod.

UPDATE:  The more I thought about this, and the more that came out about A-Rod, I realized I wouldn’t draft him until at least the 40th pick.  There’s just too much speculation about when he’ll be healthy again.  A-Rod is now 40th on the top 100 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  The top 10 has also been updated.