Fantasy Baseball Advice

While Grey and I are usually around (more Grey than me) to answer pre-draft and post-draft questions, we don’t have a solution just yet for inter-draft questions.

As we wait for the first prototype of our Razzball helmet that allows us to help call the plays for our readers, here are some tips that will allow you to call audibles like Peyton Manning. (Look at me, Doc, I’m makin’ football analogies!)

I’m in the middle of a draft and I’m somewhat to completely set at a position BUT I can’t believe this hitter is still available.  Should I draft him and 1) Fill CI, MI, or UTIL earlier in the draft than expected  and/or 2) Draft him to set up a pre-season trade?

Generally no on #1.  Always “No” on #2.

I’ll start with the answer to #2.  NEVER draft thinking you’ll be able to trade anyone for close to face value.  Two simple reasons:  1) Everyone is in wanderlust with their team after the draft and generally overvalue most players on their roster and 2) If they valued this player nearly as much as you, then he wouldn’t have dropped as far in the draft!

For #1, I’d only do this if the player is clearly the best hitter on the board with slight consideration for position scarcity.  If you drafted Pujols in the 1^st round and inexplicably Adrian Gonzalez still available in the 4^th round, then sure.  But I’m pretty confident that the 2B, SS, or 3B you have your eyes on isn’t by far the best hitter out there.  I’m supremely confident if you’re eying a Catcher.  But even if they are slightly better than a player at another position, I’d draft the other guy.  Why?  Better roster flexibility throughout the draft – you ALWAYS want the best values and filling up one position and being scarce in another prevents this – and if the league is undervaluing this position early (based on your valuation), then they probably will undervalue it late in the draft too.

Same as above but it’s a pitcher.

You’re not going to get good trade value from a starting pitcher and if you’ve already got a couple of top SPs, that next one will have less incremental value for you.  You obviously value pitchers more than your league mates and will have no problem drafting 5-6 SPs you like spread out throughout the draft that’ll better maximize value and draft flexibility.

Relievers are the exception to the rule.  They are the only players that have fair trade value given their scarcity.  Nothing wrong with stocking up on saves in April/May and then trading a closer when a good deal can be had.   But I can’t see any reason to draft more than 2 closers in the first 10 rounds – even if a top closer is still hanging around by the 9^th/10th.

How do I factor upside into my draft choices?

Sprinkle it in throughout the draft and take more risks later in the draft.

For those who read this blog religiously (which must suck for our Jewish readership as our content must be even more nonsensical when read right to left), you may know that Grey has a perpetual boner (RIP btw) for upside while I’m a bit more conservative.  Here’s why….

You have to realize that ‘upside’ is factored into legitimate projections (CHONE, ZiPs, PECOTA, Marcel) and that the chances of performing above these projections is about the same as performing below these projections.  So ‘upside’ is a sunny word for risk and drafting on ‘upside’ (vs. projected results which represents their ‘average’ statistical outcome) generally means you are reaching for that player.

It’s best to balance ‘upside’ players with more dependable players so you’re getting the most value out of every draft pick and minimizing risk.  I remember seeing a 2009 AL expert draft last year where someone drafted Liriano, David Price, and Chamberlain as 3 of his top 4 starters.  That was nothing more than pitcher roulette in my eyes and they obviously didn’t hit their number.

But towards the end of the draft, upside is great because the ‘dependable’ players aren’t much better than the players available on the free agent wire.  So you might as well take a shot on someone sexy in the hopes they overdeliver knowing you can fall back on a dependable player via free agency.

You play it too safe, Rudy.  Flexibility.  Manage risk.   Blech.  Screw your mutual fund approach. I want to play the stock market.  Any recommendations?

While I think maximizing draft value is the best chance of winning a league, I admire someone who’s willing to roll the dice.  Gamble is my last name.

If you want to gamble by taking a lot of young ‘upside’ picks, go ahead.  It could work but I highly doubt it.

If you think you’re great at finding pitching bargains, go right ahead and wait until the 10^th round or so to draft pitchers.  Just realize that there will definitely be at least 1-2 drafters in your league already deploying that strategy which makes it tougher to win with this gambit (because of the increased competition for early hitters/late pitchers).

My gambit of choice would be to draft 2 pitchers in the 3^rd-5^th rounds – hopefully snagging 2 of the top 5 or 6 starters before an inevitable starting pitching run occurs.  In the next 5 rounds, get 2 premium closers and another SP.  Get at least two more closers before the end of the draft and some pitchers with solid Wins and K numbers.  The intent is to finish near the top in all 5 pitching categories.

While hitters are generally valued higher than pitchers, it is tougher to find hitter values but they are there.  I’d punt Catcher since you’re paying a premium for position scarcity and you want to focus on raw numbers to balance your pitcher-heavy draft.  I’d punt both 2B and SS until at least the double-digit rounds as there are much better values to be had later in the draft.   Throughout the draft, concentrate on everyday hitters with a likely shot of hitting 1^st through 5^th in the lineup – it doesn’t matter if they are on a bad team.  The reason for focusing on lineup position is that they are solid bets for 160+ Runs and RBIs.   Since power-speed players generally come at premiums,  mix and match hitters who come undervalued because they are particularly weak in a dimension – e.g., Adam Dunn (average) and Michael Bourn (power).  As the season goes on, trade closers to improve offensive numbers.

Will this strategy work?  Yeah, some of the time.  I wouldn’t recommend it over a more balanced draft but if it was a sure thing, they wouldn’t call it gambling…

This was a fantasy baseball league put together by the FSWA, Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  (Grey is in the FSWA and Rudy is unlicensed.  Hopefully they don’t kick out Grey for hiring non-union labor.) We drafted this league together, which made for some disagreements in our two styles of drafting.  That was quickly mended when we realized it was only a 12 team league and we could get a stacked team no matter how many top chefs were cooking in this quickfire challenge.

C:  Mike Napoli
C:  Brandon Inge
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Jose Lopez
3B: Chipper Jones
SS: Ryan Theriot
MI: Felipe Lopez
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Carlos Beltran
OF: Carlos Quentin
OF: Adam Dunn
OF: Cameron Maybin
OF: Ryan Spilborghs
UT: Fred Lewis
Bench: Colby Rasmus

P: Jonathan Papelbon
P: Felix Hernandez
P: Scott Kazmir
P: Jonathan Broxton
P: Erik Bedard
P: Troy Percival
P: Wandy Rodriguez
P: Randy Wolf
P: Fernando Rodney
Bench: Kenshin Kawakami, Joey Devine, Chad Cordero, David Aardsma
DL: Max Scherzer

OVERALL THOUGHTS:

First off, this league is 5×5 with SLG and OBP instead of HRs and Average.  We put up a bit of a fight to have that changed, but our protests fell on deaf ears.  With those two category changes, it makes our Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn selections even purdier.  Put them up to the light; they shine!  It doesn’t help the Inge selection that much, but a bit.

We selected eleventh overall and Miguel Cabrera almost made it to us in the first round after Manny Ramirez was taken 4th and Jimmy Rollins was taken 6th.  As confusing as Manny was in the 4 slot, it wasn’t as confusing as Rollins over Howard, Miggy, Braun, Utley and Sizemore.

Pitchers flew off the board in this league.  To give you an idea, Nolasco, Beckett, Billingsley and Lackey all went in the 6th round.  (This was after Lackey’s injury had surfaced.)  We decided to go with the upside of Kazmir and F-Her.  (Note:  We drafted Devine prior to the injury announcement.)

All told, we drafted 5 Mariners.  Sucky guys on sucky teams is the new black!  Luckily, Endy Chavez was not one of the drafted Mariners.  (When Don Wakamatsu named Brandon Morrow the closer, we dropped two of our Mariners.  Betcha you can guess which two.)

Our team is well-balanced with power and speed.  And we have Felipe Lopez, what’s not to love?  Our pitching is riskier than either of us would’ve preferred, but neither of us wanted to get caught up in a run with pitchers flying off the shelves that early.  In a 12 team league, we should be able to fix potential pitching holes with waiver wire pickups.

Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Roto Arcade invited Razzball into their 16-team mixed league that they are christening a ‘Pro-Am’ since 9 of the players are fantasy bloggers and 7 are avid players from Fantasy Baseball Cafe boards and Y! Roto Arcade commenters.

Andy posted all the rosters as well as some Q&A over in this post.  It’s a good read.  Some post-draft thoughts:

• 16-team drafts take FOREVER if you’re picking on one of the ends.  We were 14th.  Luckily, Grey and I tag-teamed it and kept ourselves entertained with a running commentary on the picks.
• You either have to be a little more flexible in 16 team leagues or be willing to accept bad value.  We ended up following our BRAN Strategy but had to improvise when Peavy and Webb failed to reach us with the 46th pick (3rd round).  We ended up mirroring my FantasyPros911 NL-only draft from a week ago and going Catcher crazy.  McCann was at the top of both our catcher lists and we liked him better than settling for Haren.  We ended up snagging Pablo Sandoval (C-eligible in Y! leagues) in the 8th round as we were incredulous that he was still available (guys like Napoli were coming off the board by the 10th round).
• These guys were middle infielder crazy:  Furcal in the 4th.  Figgins, Tulo, and Uggla in the 5th.  Cano, Jeter, and Michael Young in the 6th.  You get the idea.  Never thought twice about waiting it out.  Like Kelly Johnson in the 9th round (122nd pick).  Freddy Sanchez (19th round) and Elvis Andrus (20th round) should chip in for AVG and SB respectively.
• Outfield dries up quick in a league this big.  You know it’s bad when you’re forced to draft Frenchy in the 17th round.  But Beltran/McLouth/Maybin/Lewis are a solid first four and felt Rasmus in round 22 (something like pick #340) is a nice upside play.
• Not loving our pitching staff.  I like our Shields/Cain/Cueto troika less than my 12-team NL of Volquez/Cain/Scherzer.  I hope Carmona doesn’t make me look bad for championing him in the 16th round.  At least our relief situation is solid with Lidge, Francisco, and Devine (edit: doh!).

We’re in the final days of fantasy baseball draft season and I’m taking a breather this weekend to survey my squads. This season’s drafts have been a lot more fun than last year’s as I’ve left the comfortable womb of undergrad 10-12 MLB drafts to graduate school formats like 12-team single league and 16-team mixed leagues. Going that deep in drafts makes you contemplate such unsavory questions as “Should I draft a Nationals pitcher?” and “Who will be Larussa’s go-to utility guy?”

I’ll cover the FantasyPros911 12-Team NL Blogger League in this post and cover the Yahoo! Roto Arcade 16-team mixed league in a separate one.

For those unfamiliar with FantasyPros911, they are running two expert leagues but relegated us to the ‘2nd division’ as revenge for being good friends with Chuck D who has been (unfairly) critical of their site.  Anyway, we were delighted to have the opportunity to test our fantasy baseballin’ skillz  with the other fine fantasy bloggers in this league.  (Complete draft results here)

It was the traditional auction style draft where you have $260 for your roster and 7 reserve picks (we’re still trying to finish up the last 2 rounds).  While I think my player values were right on (especially after comparing against the NL LABR Draft), I had a few missteps on draft strategy and execution.  I went in with a strategy of getting players at or below my estimated value and avoid big buck players in favor of a balanced squad.  My fellow bloggers helped me avoid any temptations to draft a top player by overbidding just about every top player.  Hanley went for a ridunkulous $54 (my valuation $39).  Albert Pujols for $49 (my valuation $36).  David Wright went for $48 (my valuation $41).  Jose Reyes for $45 (my valuation $38).  You get the idea.  This left me on the sidelines in the beginning except when it came to drafting catchers.  I don’t particularly like investing $ or high draft choices on catchers because they get more time off, have greater injury risk, and tend to slow down in the 2nd half.  But you have to mix things up a bit when 24 catchers are slotted to be drafted and I only had 13 at 300+ ABs.  After I got outbid for Brian McCann ($27), I snagged Russ Martin and Geovanny Soto for a combined $40 (I valued them at a combined $60).

After the first wave of great players, the bidding got more tentative and I started spending my dollars pretty quickly.  My biggest mistake was failing to realize you can’t move players down to your Reserve.  I survived clogging my 1B slot with a $3 Nick Johnson by snagging Cantu for my 1B/3B slot.  I lucked out after stupidly clogging my SS spot with Aaron Miles (I started and ended the bidding at $1) by snagging Alex Gonzalez in the reserve draft.  My early giddiness at getting Maybin for $13 might have led to risky OF bids on Colby Rasmus ($8) and Andrew McCutchen ($3).  Of course these guys could earn their value (they got drafted at the same $ in NL LABR) but I exposed myself to too much risk and could’ve used a safer, higher AVG guy to balance off Uggla and Reynolds.  I minimized some of that risk by snagging Seth Smith in COL with the first reserve pick but if these guys end up spending the 1st half either in the minors or on the bench, I’m in trouble.

As for pitching, I’m very happy with my starting staff.  I would’ve loved to anchor the staff with a Santana, Peavy, or Webb but I got two potential aces in Volquez and Cain for the price of one of those guys.  I’ll be lucky to get 150 IP out of Scherzer ($11) but I like him better than Cueto and Parra (both who went for $9).  I overpaid for Maine as it was later in the draft but had the money at the time.  Liking my depth at SP with Randy Wolf, Phillie prospect J.A. Happ and a Petco Park pitcher in Baek.  Not psyched about my relief crew of Francisco Cordero, Huston Street, and the two ugly options in STL (Franklin, McClellan) but hopefully I can get a couple points out of them.

I’ll write a couple posts throughout the year with updates from this league.  If I win, I get to move up to the ‘pert division in 2010.  I’m all a-tingle!

This was, as they say in Italy, an Experto Callaspo AL-Only draft.  What AL-Only means to me? Thanks for asking, random italicized voice.  It means I probably won’t have one pitcher that I would usually have in a mixed league.  I contemplated about how I wanted to go about this draft.  It’s good to have a game plan, ya know?  So I decided, since I don’t really like AL pitchers, I would get solid pitchers anyway.  Zoinks!  I figured that solid pitchers would be at a premium and if I got my share, I’d be in good shape.  Also, from my knowledge of other ‘pert drafts, no one drafts starters early, so while they’re zigging, I decided to zag.  “Knowing your opponents’ weaknesses is half the duel,” Aaron Burr.  When you see my pitchers, you’ll see I didn’t really get that many great ones, but for AL-Only I have a top three pitching staff going into the season.  Then there’s the strategy I employed for hitters.  I decided to punt catchers, of course, and up the middle.  Punting the MIs was because I knew who I wanted late and I knew guys like Alexei Ramirez would go way early (He went in the 2nd round.)  Okay, before I get to my thoughts I jotted down during the AL-Only draft, here’s my co-conspirators:

Fantasy Baseball Dugout
The Fantasy Man
Fantasy Sports Commissioner Training Institute
Rotohelp
Sporting News
ProFantasy Baseball
Roto Central
Advanced Fantasy Baseball
Fantasy Sports R Us
Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Fanball

Here’s my team:

C:  Taylor Teagarden (19)
1B: Carlos Pena (3)
2B: Asdrubal Cabrera (15)
SS: Jed Lowrie (11)
3B: Brandon Wood (12)
MI: Wilson Betemit (23)
CI:  Jason Giambi (10)
OF: Carlos Quentin (1)
OF: Carl Crawford (2)
OF: Vernon Wells (5)
OF: Franklin Gutierrez (14)
OF: Brett Gardner (16)
UT: DeWayne Wise (25)
P:  James Shields (4)
P:  Joba Chamberlain (6)
P:  John Danks (7)
P:  Brad Ziegler (8)
P:  Brandon Lyon (9)
P:  Anthony Reyes (13)
P:  Dan Wheeler (17)
P:  Kevin Millwood (18)
P:  Rafael Betancourt (22)
Bench: Melky Cabrera (20), Wladimir Balentien (21), Matt Thornton (24), Jeremy Sowers (26), Damaso Marte (27)

Notes I jotted down during the draft:

ROUND 1 & 2 – I get Carlos N Carl with my first two picks.  Yuck.  Seriously, I hate AL-Only.  I have no idea where all the good players have gone, but I think it’s into the NL. (To make matters worst, I drafted the first five rounds, then we needed to do it over because something was wrong with the draft room. (I once loved you, CBS!  Nevermore.)  Then, to make matters even worse, our do over was supposed to be a shot by shot remake of the original, but someone decided to make it an adaptation.  At one point, one of the ‘perts asked another ‘pert if they could see they were giving them the middle finger.  Fun times!)

ROUND 3 – I wanted lots of power from my corners.  That became a pipe dream when Aubrey Huff was drafted ahead of me in the 3rd (!) round.  Drafting Carlos Pena in the third round is a tragic-comedy.

ROUND 4 – James Shields. It was between him and Liriano.  And I got to draft both at one point, but that was the first AL-Only ‘pert draft that we will never speak of again.  Actually, I’m pleased with Shields.

ROUND 5 – Vernon Wells.  This is barely an endorsement of Wells, but he was the last outfielder that’s halfway reliable and he’s supposed to be healthy by April.  Of course, that will turn into June any day now.

ROUND 6 – Joba Chamberlain.  This is really all I needed for my AL-Only staff and the next guy is gluttony at its worst.

ROUND 7 – John Danks.  Hey, Gluttony, good to see you.  Okay, before you call me out for this. Here’s the guys that were taken after him that I could’ve had:

Kevin Slowey – I want Danks over him.  You do too.
Nick Swisher – Okay, but doesn’t have a secure job and will bat .240.
Mike Jacobs – I already drafted the Latin Jacobs.
Orlando Cabrera – Eh.
Denard Span – Blah.
Frank Francisco – Solid pick.
Scott Baker – On the risky pitcher list.
Troy Percival – Too early for him.
Fausto Carmona – Danks is twice the pitcher of Carmona.
Carlos Gomez – Great pick, but because of Crawford I couldn’t have made it.
Gavin Floyd then Joe Saunders then Crapolanco… You get my point.

ROUND 10 – Jason Giambi.  Carlos Pena’s baby daddy.

ROUND 11 & 12 – Jed Lowrie and Brandon Wood.  A) They have the superfecta of eligibility, which is crucial for a single league.  B) They have upside.  C) Would you really have wanted Crapolanco and Orlando Cabrera over these two?  D) As T.J. Lavin would say, “They are both killing it in spring training.”  (Speaking of T.J. Lavin, The Challenge is back in two weeks.  I can’t wait.)

ROUND 13 – Anthony Reyes. This could be the steal of the draft.  Or a guy I drop by May.  Stay tuned!

ROUND 14 – The Big FraGu.  At this point in the draft, there wasn’t even a lot of guys who had starting jobs let alone one that could go 15/15.  Granted, my average is in the dumpster at this point.

ROUND 15 – As…DRUBAL!  I almost took him in the 10th round, but I quickly saw where everyone else’s team stood with middle infielders and I realized I could wait.  This is Grey.  This is Grey on his toes.  (BTW, it’s really sad when you get this excited about Asdrubal Cabrera.  It’s AL-Only.  Small victories.)

ROUND 19 – Taylor Teagarden.  Honestly, I don’t know what his playing time will be like, but if he hits 10 HRs, I win with this pick.  Not to mention, he’s a better defender, so he could see 250+ ABs.  Think Napoli last year.

ROUND 21 – We like to Wladdy… We like to Wladdy…

ROUND 23 – Wilson Betemit.  I think he hits 15 HRs in a super-utility role.  Or flat-out takes over for Josh Fields.  Or I drop him and fill-in my MI spot with someone else.  At this point, Punto, Bobby Crosby and Zobrist were being drafted so this pick is really no harm, no foul.

ROUND 26 – Jeremy Sowers.  For this late in the draft to get a starter on a good team– Oh, who am I kidding?  I’ll probably drop him by April 7th.