Fantasy Baseball Advice

Until we go over the top 20 closers of the 2009 fantasy baseball season, this is our last closer ranking.  Too bad, so sad.  For those in very deep leagues, I give you the name Matt Lindstrom.  Not so your friends now call you that.  No, I give it to you as an example of what can be found in September closers.  Teams who fall out of the race (Indians), or teams that can’t afford to lose a lot of games (Phils) sometimes flip the script in September.  With the Indians, for instance, they may realize watching Wood be meh isn’t as exciting as giving the ball to a potential closer of the future (Chris Perez).  Now during the daily roundups and Buy/Sells, I’m sure I’ll mention closers to watch, but keep in mind guys that don’t have the job, but may get the audition.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Mariano Rivera (+2) (Phil Hughes)
3. Jonathan Papelbon (-1) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen)
4. Jonathan Broxton (+1) (George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (-2) (Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Ryan Franklin (+4) (Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes)
7. Heath Bell (-1) (Luke Gregerson)
8. Brian Fuentes (+11) (Jason Bulger, Kevin Jepsen)
9. David Aardsma (+10) (Sean White, Mark Lowe)
10. Huston Street (+1) (Rafael Betancourt, Matt Daley)
11. Joakim Soria (-4) (Jamey Wright, John Bale)
12. Brian Wilson (+1) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
13. Jose Valverde (-4) (LaTroy Hawkins)
14. Trevor Hoffman (Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter)
15. Andrew Bailey (+8) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
16. Francisco Cordero (-8) (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset)
17. Fernando Rodney (-1) (Bobby Seay, Brandon Lyon)
18. Carlos Marmol (-3) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
19. Bobby Jenks (+8) (Matt Thornton, Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink)
20. Rafael Soriano (-3) (Mike Gonzalez, Peter Moylan)
21. J.P. Howell (-3) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Leo Nunez (+7) (Matt Lindstrom, Kiko Calero, Dan Meyer)
23. Frank Francisco (+3) (C.J. Wilson, Darren O’Day)
24. Mike MacDougal (Jason Bergmann)
25. Kerry Wood (-2) (Chris Perez, Rafael Perez, Joe Smith)
26. Jim Johnson (+4) (Danys Baez)
27. Matt Capps (-5) (Jesse Chavez)
28. Brad Lidge (-7) (Ryan Madson, Scott Eyre, Random Fan Who Wins A Contest)
29. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs (-1) (Brandon League)
30. Chad Qualls (-10) (Juan Gutierrez, Clay Zavada, Esmerling Vasquez, Daniel Schlereth, Blaine Boyer, Ken Patera.)

In this month’s closer look, let’s discuss trading for closers.  Now before people think my battleship has sunk, I’m not saying to pay top dollar for closers.  But with us heading into July, it should be pretty clear how badly you need saves.  Luckily, saves are one of the categories (steals are another) where you can make up ground quickfast.  If you’re ten or more saves behind a pack of people and can gain three or more points with an additional closer or two, then you should be thinking about trading for a couple.   I’d look to trade one player from your strengths for two closers.  Think Shields for two donkey-corns.  Or a donkey-corn and a brain freeze.  It really depends on your strengths and weaknesses.  And since saves do come in bunches, if you’re finding yourself picking up plenty of ground in saves, then in August, you can trade away a closer or two for a different piece.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Broxton (Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Cory Wade)
2. Francisco Rodriguez (Pedro Feliciano, Bobby Parnell)
3. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares)
4. Jonathan Papelbon (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

5. Heath Bell (Edward Mujica)
6. Mariano Rivera (+1) (Brian Bruney, Alfredo Aceves)
7. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
8. Francisco Cordero (David Weathers, Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset)
9. Brian Fuentes (+2) (Darren Oliver, Justin Speier)
10. Ryan Franklin (+2) (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes)
11. Andrew Bailey (+16) (Brad Ziegler, Michael Wuertz, Santiago Casilla)
12. David Aardsma (+12) (Sean White, Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
13. Brian Wilson (+2) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
14. Huston Street (+6) (Joel Peralta, Manny Corpas)
15. Kevin Gregg (-1) (Carlos Marmol)
16. Fernando Rodney (+2) (Joel Zumaya, Bobby Seay)
17. George Sherrill (+5) (Jim Johnson, Danys Baez, Chris Ray)
18. Brad Lidge (-8) (Ryan Madson)
19. Mike Gonzalez (-2) (Rafael Soriano)
20. Jose Valverde (+8) (LaTroy Hawkins, Chris Sampson)
21. Joakim Soria (+4) (Juan Cruz, Jamey Wright, Kyle Farnsworth)
22. J.P. Howell (+8) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

23. Trevor Hoffman (-1) (Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter)
24. Frank Francisco (-14) (C.J. Wilson)
25. Kerry Wood (-8) (Chris Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
26. Matt Capps (-2) (John Grabow, Jesse Chavez, Sean Burnett)
27. Jason Frasor (-8) (Scott Downs, B.J. Ryan)
28. Chad Qualls (-15) (Tony Pena, Clay Zavada, Jon Rauch)
29. Mike MacDougal (Joe Beimel, Julian Tavarez)
30. Leo Nunez (-4) (Dan Meyer, Matt Lindstrom, Kiko Calero, Waco My Airplane)

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the fantasy baseball closers.  Here at Razzball we are always evolving like Saaphyri’s alliance on I Love Money 2, so I’ve added pluses and minuses in parenthesis for the movement a closer has had since the last time I went over them.  For example, if B.J. Ryan fell twelve spots from 10 to 25, he has a parenthetical negative fifteen next to his name.  If there was no change, no parenthetical.  I also removed the team they close for, because if you don’t know that, I’m not sure how much I can help you.  More than anything else, the closer list is constantly changing.  So you kinda need to follow along to my daily roundups, but if you like to have things all in one place, here ya go.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (-1) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Bobby Jenks (+1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
9. Kerry Wood (+3) (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
10. Jose Valverde (+3) (LaTroy Hawkins)
11. Chad Qualls (+3) (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
12. Heath Bell (+4) (Mike Adams)
13. Brian Fuentes (-2) (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
14. Kevin Gregg (+1) (Carlos Marmol)
15. Frank Francisco (+6) (C.J. Wilson)
16. Matt Capps (+2) (John Grabow)
17. Francisco Cordero (-9) (David Weathers, Jared Burton)
18. Mike Gonzalez (+2) (Rafael Soriano)
19. Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine)
20. Brian Wilson (-3) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
21. Joel Hanrahan (Saul Rivera, Steven Shell)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Lindstrom (+2) (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
23. Huston Street (+6) (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
24. Troy Percival (+4) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
25. B.J. Ryan (-15) (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson)
26. Jason Motte (-1) (Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan)
27. George Sherrill (-1) (Chris Ray)
28. Brandon Morrow (+2) (Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe)
29. Carlos Villanueva (-2) (Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey, David Riske)
30. Fernando Rodney/Brandon Lyon (-6) (Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Axel Foley)

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the major league closers.  Some closer battles have not been squared away yet.  The Cubs are still holding Gregg over Marmol’s head, the Cards are still reluctant to say Perez, the A’s might split duties between Devine and Ziegler and the Mariners are looking forward to 2010.  Personally, I think the Cubs will split Marmol and Gregg 75/25, taking a little value away from Marmol and adding a lot of value to Gregg.  If Gregg gets any saves, he’s worth a spot on your roster.  I think Devine should and will be the closer for the majority of the year.   I think the Cards will go with Perez out of the gate and he’ll be the closer for the majority of the year.  Though his leash will be short, making Motte a good late flier.  Other good late fliers for the MR. B’s out there who are looking for saves are Jensen Lewis, Chris Ray, Wheeler, Balfour, C.J. Wilson and Corpas.   Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
10. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
11. Brian Fuentes, LAA (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
12. Kerry Wood, CLE (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
14. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
15. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
16. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
17. Brian Wilson, SAN (Bob Howry, Jeremy Affeldt)
18. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
19. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
20. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)
21. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Frank Francisco, TEX (C.J. Wilson)
23. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
24. Brandon Lyon, DET (Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
25. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)
27. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (David Riske, Carlos Villanueva)
28. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
29. Huston Street, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
30. Tyler Walker, SEA (Mark Lowe, Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista, Richie Zisk, the Mariners Moose)

Followers of Razzball know this site has a concise strategy when it comes to saves: SAGNOF. In short, 30 saves is 30 saves, so why pay Papelbon for the privilege of providing them, when you can get them on the cheap from Brian Wilson?

Followers of Baron Von Vulturewins know that the Baron is the greediest, horniest, dirtiest, most shameless saves-whore around. (For patented strategy, see comment under this post. How shameless? Well, if the Baron found Jensen Lewis lying dead by the side of the road, he’d shake the corpse by the ankles just to see if five saves fell out. (Last year, 13 fell out.)

In short, me love the Junky Closers.

A common objection is this: Sure, Junky Closers give you dirty, dirty saves, but just how much will Joe Borowski/Brian Wilson/C.J. Wilson/Carnie Wilson hurt my team in other categories? Won’t he poop all over my team ERA and WHIP while hurting me in Ks?

To which the Baron says: Good question. Let the numbers speak!

Let’s start with ERA. In my regular league (12 team mixed league roto), we play with a 1300 IP maximum, which is pretty standard. Last year, the winning ERA was 3.25. (Dude had Halladay.) Now, I’m no mathemagician, but in that scenario, that means the pitchers on Team X – let’s call them the Dribbling Nozzles – gave up roughly 469 runs.

Now, let’s say that the Nozzles carried a Mint Closer like Nathan all year (39 saves, 1.33 ERA), who gave up just 10 ER. Now let’s replace Nathan with a year’s worth of Junky Closer/SAGNOF favorite/obese housebound harmonizing genius Brian Wilson (41 saves, 4.25 ERA), who gave up 32 ER. Big difference, right?

Well, when we make this swap the Dribbles team ERA balloons to – wait for it! — 3.40. So the difference between Nathan (arguably the best reliever last year and a costly 5th round pick) and Wilson (lame-ass 17th round workaday schmo), is about .15 points of team ERA. Which in our league would have slipped the Dribbles from first in ERA down to, um, a tie for first. Total loss = 1/2 point — you know, like in that old karate video game.

Of course, in a tighter race, this could have meant losing a point or even two. But in that tight of a race, you’re probably not wishing you drafted Nathan instead of Wilson. You’re probably wishing you hadn’t RUN IAN SNELL OUT WEEK AFTER AGONIZING WEEK FOR, LIKE, TWO MONTHS.

But wait, you say! Wilson was actually pretty decent for a Junky Closer. Okay, then let’s swap in the most turdtastic closer in recent memory, Mr. Joe Borowski circa 2007, when he tallied 45 saves and a malodorous 5.07 ERA. If you traveled back in a time machine, drafted Blowrowski, transported him to 2008, and replaced Nathan with him – well, then your 3.25 team ERA wouldn’t swell to 3.40. It would swell to 3.43.

Keep in mind that top closers actually accumulate very few IP, usually around 70 (or about 5% of your season total). So even a bloated, ugly, horror-movie-quality ERA (like 5.07) means relatively few runs added to your total ER, and thus a small total effect on your team ERA. The gap between Nathan (10 ER) and Blowrowski (37 runs) is just a net gain of 27 ER, or roughly one bad outing by Aaron Harang in Coors.

Now onto WHIP. Our league’s WHIP leader last year (same team, surprise, surprise) was at 1.20. Swapping out Nathan for Wilson raises that to 1.22. Swapping in Borowski ‘07 raises it to 1.23.

Not exactly the final minutes of the Hindenburg.

The Nozzles did pretty badly in strikeouts, finishing 9th with 1075. If they’d had Papelbon (77 Ks), not Borowski ‘07 (58), the 19 extra Ks would have moved them up one place in the standings. But, really, is 19 Ks – i.e. one-and-a-half Lincecum starts — really going to make your break your season? What are you, made of baby-juice?

Obviously, you have to adjust this for your particular league, rules, roster-sizes, etc. But the basic point is: Grabbing Paps or Nathan early might gain you a point or two overall, assuming he doesn’t pull a Putz and blow out his elbow. But ask yourself this: How many extra points would you have gained by using that 5th round pick on a stud OF instead of Papelnuts?

The only category where closers add real value is – wait for it — saves. And Joe Borowski’s 45 saves are exactly as valuable as Jon Papelbon’s 45 saves. And a whole heck of a lot cheaper.

Now ask yourself this: If you have a time machine, why are you using it to go back in time and draft Joe Borowski and not to kill baby Hitler?

Seriously, you should have killed baby Hitler.