Fantasy Baseball Advice

Mocking It Rotoworld Style

February 18, 2010 By: Doc Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft 39 Comments →

I’ve been footballin’ like it’s 2010 over on the other side of Razzball and was happy to get the baseball side of my brain lubed up. You can see Rotoworld’s Drew Silva’s take on the first half of the mock here and the second half here.  And while you’re clicking random hyperlinks, click here and follow me on twitter.  I’d like to give an extra thank you to frequent commenter, Steve, for being a sounding board for my picks.  Blame him for the ones you don’t like and praise me for the ones you like. Got it?  All in all I feel like this team would be a contender if it were a real fake team. Here are my fellow mockaletes:

Eno Sarris (FanGraphs.com)
Auto-Queue (Computer, and great guy to have a beer with)
Drew Silva (Rotoworld)
Steve Gardner (USA Today)
Tim Dierkes (MLBTradeRumors)
Mike Axisa (River Ave. Blues)
Jesse Spector (New York Daily News)
Sam Miller (Orange County Register)
Chet Gresham (Razzball)
Dan Wade (Bleacher Report)
Thor Nystrom (Rotoworld)
D.J. Short (Rotoworld)

1. (9) Mark Teixeira - I feel good about getting Tex at #9.  I thought hard on Matt Kemp because I love me some multi-tool players but Tex has some nice tools himself.  Ok, enough about men’s tools and how much I like them.  In the New Yankee Donkshop, Tex is a great tool to build the rest of your team.

2. (16) David Wright – My first of many value rebound players, Wright is too good to be no good, cuz he lays wood, even in the Metco hood.  Or something.  I don’t feel that great about third basemen this year anyway, so I’m okay to take a little risk with Wright.

3. (33) Brandon Phillips – At this point in the draft I’m thinking, “Donut delivery, it’s got to be feasible, you wake up Sunday morning and want a pastry, but don’t want to get out in the cold…” And I was also thinking, shortstop is weak and Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are still on the board with four picks before me, but after them it’s a perfect shizz storm of shortstops I’d rather not have.  So as soon as the J.R.’s go, I look toward another weak position and grab the 20/20 stability that is Brando.

4. (40) Justin Morneau - As long as Morneau can stand upright he is good value with the 40th pick.  I think he will and he looks good in a UTIL spot.  Doesn’t it make you feel all warm and fuzzy when you can toss a top guy in UTIL, even if the rest of your team is full of Polancos and Zitos? Maybe it’s just me.  Went with value here.  I shop at Aldis too.

5. (57) Johan Santana – Maybe the Mets made a deal with the devil to win the ‘69 World Series and last season (and a whole lot of other seasons) was God (directed by Pat Robertson) smiting them down.  Maybe.  I’ll lean more toward some bad luck and a rebound year with Santana benefiting from Metco, a good offense, and just plain good pitching.

6. (64) B.J. Upton – I’m loving me some B.J. this year, well, all years actually.  He got off to a slow start last season with his shoulder gone wonky and then never got on track.  He’s risky, but you’re guaranteed the 40 stolen bases and I just don’t see his numbers not moving back to his norm.

7. (81) Josh Hamilton – Yes, this team is starting to look like Comeback Tour 2010, but I’m not grabbing players that have no track record of fantasy goodness.  Hamilton was overrated last season and crapped out.  So what is he now?  The 81st pick? Sure.

8. (88) Raul Ibanez – My outfield needed an old veteran who should start the season well and offset any injuries, schizophrenic episodes, or relapses by his brethren.  I needed another steady, reliable player in a offensive ballpark (looking back at Tex) and Ibanez fits the bill.

9. (105) Cole Hamels – His stuff is still there.  He misses bats.  No, he doesn’t have pet bats that he cares for at home; batters swing and miss when trying to hit his balls, which is good no matter how you look at it.

10. (112) Elvis Andrus – I was short on shortstop having missed out on the J.R.’s so I had to decide if I wanted to keep punting or go for it on fourth down with Elvis up the gut and instead he used his speed to take it all the way, because he’s got what we like to call in the business, upside! Could I have waited on him? Maybe, but I need his stolen bases and I like him, so I took him.

11. (129) Scott Baker – If we see second half Scott all season, I’ve got myself some filet mignon at Taco Bell prices.

12. (136) Carlos Marmol – I like Marmol and his K’s, but not a huge fan of his psyche.  I’m betting on his stuff.

13. (153) Jose Valverde – In a ‘perts league I usually like to grab more closers than I would in a league with my uncle who talks shizz, but is usually too drunk to pick SAGNOF off the wire in a timely manner. I won’t be owning the top closers unless they really fall so I don’t feel bad about grabbing multiple closers late.

14. (160) Geovany Soto – I’m hoping that Soto sans baby fat will have a better shot at staying healthy and not sucking.

15. (177) Francisco Cordero – Going back to my grab closers late in a ‘pert league, but in retrospect grabbing another starter might have been smarter since closers lasted a little longer than I thought they would.

16. (184) Garrett Jones – Meh, not the greatest pick of all time, but I like his value this late if he can repeat last season, but in a full season.

17. (201) Johnny Cueto – He’s got the ability, now he just needs to stay healthy and complete a full season with his best stuff.  He’s worth it as a late flier.

18. (208) Neftali Feliz – The guy is Matt Weiters and Roy Hobbs wrapped in a cheesy gordita.  That’s some yummy béisbollin! If this were a real fake team I might have to drop him for some waiver wire wonder, but he is too awesome not to take as my last pick.

Closer Look

November 30, 2008 By: Grey Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft, 2009 Keepers, Closers 19 Comments →

Before we look at all the potential closers going into the 2009 season, let me say this, “None of these schmohawks may be a closer by the time we get to May.” Sure, barring injury, some are sure things like Nathan, Lidge and Papelbon. I’m just saying that it’s very early to be looking at 2009 closers, but some people need to get their 2009 keepers in, so I figured I’d do a quick closer look. Anyway, here’s all of the guys that could be a closer in 2009:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for $10 schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, FA

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta)
7. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
8. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton)
10. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
11. Jonathan Broxton/Takashi Saito, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo)
12. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (Jeff Samardzija…. If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
13. Brian Fuentes, FA
14. Brian Wilson, SAN (Jeremy Affeldt)
15. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
16. J.J. Putz, SEA (Roy Corcoran)
17. Jose Arrendondo/Scot Shields, LAA
18. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
19. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
20. Kerry Wood, FA
21. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)
22. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going to a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

23. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
24. David Riske, MIL (Carlos Villanueva)
25. Manny Corpas/Huston Street, COL (Taylor Buchholz)
26. Trevor Hoffman, FA
27. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Joe Nelson)
28. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
29. Fernando Rodney, DET (Joel Zumaya, Kyle Farnsworth)
30. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte)
31. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)
32. C.J. Wilson/Frank Francisco, TEX
33. Jensen Lewis/Rafael Perez, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
34. Eddie Kunz/Luis Ayala/The Arepa Lady, NYM

Closer Look

September 06, 2008 By: Grey Category: Closers, September's Daily Notes 80 Comments →

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for $10 schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain, Jose Veras)
5. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez)
6. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields, Justin Speier)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
9. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Joe Beimel)
10. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
11. Salomon Torres, MIL (Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota)
12. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
13. Brian Fuentes, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
14. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
15. Frank Francisco, TEX (Joaquin Benoit)
16. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
17. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
18. Chris Perez, STL (Ryan Franklin, Chris Carpenter)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going to a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and broke Pena’s thumb with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Kerry Wood, CHI (Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Jeff Samardzija)
20. Matt Capps/John Grabow, PIT (Denny Bautista)
21. Brad Ziegler, OAK (Huston Street, Joey Devine)
22. Jensen Lewis, CLE (Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez)
23. Fernando Rodney, DET (Kyle Farnsworth)
24. J.J. Putz, SEA (Sean Green)
25. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman)
26. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)
27. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell)
28. Luis Ayala, NYM (Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Al Reyes, Duaner Sanchez)
29. Matt Lindstrom/Joe Nelson, FLA (Kevin Gregg)
30. Jamie Walker, Dennis Sarfate, Jim Palmer, Senator Clay Davis, BAL (George Sherrill)

Closer Look

August 05, 2008 By: Grey Category: Buy Low, Sell High, Closers 72 Comments →

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for $10 schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, Justin Speier)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Jose Veras, Damaso Marte)
5. Brad Lidge, PHI (Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson)
6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto, Matt Lindstrom)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton, David Weathers)
9. Salomon Torres, MIL (Eric Gagne, Guillermo Mota)
10. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
11. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
12. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
14. George Sherrill, BAL (Fernando Cabrera/Jamie Walker/Jim Johnson)
15. Brian Fuentes, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
16. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
17. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton)
18. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going to a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and C.J. Wilson– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Kinsler in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Carlos Marmol/Kerry Wood, CHI (Bob Howry, Jeff Samardzija)
20. Billy Wagner, NYM (Eddie Kunz, Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez)
21. Huston Street, OAK (Santiago Casilla, Brad Ziegler, Alan Embree, Joey Devine)
22. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, Al Reyes)
23. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman)
24. Brandon Morrow/J.J. Putz, SEA (Sean Green)
25. Fernando Rodney, DET (Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Zumaya)
26. Masa Kobayashi/Rafael Perez, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
27. Chris Perez, STL (Kyle McClellan, Ryan Franklin)
28. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Luis Ayala, Saul Rivera)
29. C.J. Wilson/Eddie Guardado, TEX (Joaquin Benoit)
30. Tyler Yates/John Grabow/Denny Bautista/Corky Thatcher, PIT

It’s Now or Never, People!

July 16, 2008 By: Grey Category: July's Daily Notes 68 Comments →

The All-Star Break is over and we’re officially trucking towards your fantasy baseball trade deadline. So what should we do? Look back, of course. Through June 10th, Chase Utley led the major leagues with 21 HRs. Berkman was second with 19. Uggla had 18. Josh Hamilton, blowing the cover off the ball and not the blow off the mirror, had 70 RBIs. Adrian Gonzalez was 2nd with 57 RBIs, then the UtBerkmanley hybrid tied with 56.  For runs, Berkman held off the competish at 61, then Kinsler and Hanley at 55 and 54 respectively. Ellsbury sped out in front with 28 steals. Then Ichiro had 26 and JuanBourn tied for 24. (BTW, JuanBourn is officially the best name for a Hispanic family’s first son.) On the pitching side of things, Edinson Volquez led with Ks at 96, then Sabathia at 87 and Beckettcum at 83. (Harang at 82!) Webb had 11 wins and Cliff Lee had 10. Finally, K-Rod blew away the rest of the closers with 26 saves. Then Sherrill 21 and the BrianWoodbon triumvirate (Word of the Day) each had 18.

Awesome, Grey, you picked a random day of the season and compiled stats. What did everyone do on August 3rd of 1983? Actually, it’s not a random day. June 10th is approximately 67 games into the season. From today until the end of the 2008 season, guess how many games are left? The blind man picked up the hammer and saw. Now to say hitters and pitchers will do the same in the last 67 games as they did in the first 67 is obviously false. Some players are/were injured; some players always hit/pitch better in the 1st/2nd half and some players will sit after their club clinches/is eliminated. But I don’t think this makes my argument false as much as it reinforces the dire circumstances we are facing as fantasy baseball team owners. It’s now or never, people!

It’s time to start making some hard choices. Albert Pujols sure does dress like a world-class hitter, but if you need steals and saves, he’s not helping you. Though Lidge and Brian Roberts might. The inverse is also true, if you have Lidge, Marte, Broxton and Gregg, trade two of them for a part that could help. Most pitchers will see about 14 to 16 starts from now until the end. Most closers will be lucky to tag 17 saves onto their totals. The best hitters will be lucky to get 40/15/45 and 15 steals.  Trade deadlines are going to be right around the corner. Once trade deadlines pass, you’ll be left with nothing, but free agent pickups. In deep leagues, this can spell doom. (Dee oh oh em, by the way.) When your trade deadline passes, how can you make up ground in saves if you don’t have the closers? Only so many new closers will comes into the league in September. Where are you getting steals from in September? Home runs? You need to make moves now. If no one will give the parts you need, you may have to overpay. It’s not a crime to trade Pujols for Krispie, Marte and Dye if it gets you the championship. It’s crime to get a ten in average and a one in Ks, if it costs you your league. Leave nothing on the table. I want everyone who is reading this to win their league. You can’t win your league because you held onto Lidge when he could’ve got you a necessary piece and the title. It’s now or never, people! Make it count.