Fantasy Baseball Advice

Guess what, fellas and two girl readers?  It ain’t last year no more — that’s a double negative and ain’t ain’t a word.  Eat it, English teachers!  So it’s with much regret that I must tell you you’re not going to get value for Mark Reynolds in 2010 if you have to draft him where he’s being drafted.  Don’t draft your 2010 fantasy baseball team thinking you’re going to right all the wrongs you made last year.  It doesn’t work that way.  You’ll just be compounding your errors.  Anyone who’s ever been in a casino knows what I’m talking about.  You watch someone make a fortune at blackjack, craps, keno, whatever and you think to yourself, “Ah, man, I should’ve sat down.”  Then you do sit down and lose.  That’s you and the gamble is Mark Reynolds.  You missed the boat.  Don’t try and make up for past mistakes.

There’s something else at work here.  Something no one wants to talk about.  Fantasy baseball ‘perts are afraid of you.  You, the reader.  Everywhere you look people are telling you Reynolds is a top third baseman.  They’re telling you he’s a top third baseman because they screwed up last year and they don’t want to screw up again.  They think there will be a mutiny if you don’t see rankings that make sense compared to everyone else.  Finally, they underestimate you.  They think you only look at last year’s stats and you want the next year’s rankings to compare favorably to them.  It’s why everyone (but me) was telling you to draft Josh Hamilton last year.  No one wanted to rock the Josh Hamilton boat.  (Actually, I like Hamilton this year, but that’s for a another post.) There’s so much “What has he done for me lately?” in fantasy baseball that you can exploit it if you’re aware of it.  People have great years all the time, doesn’t mean they will have a great year again the following year.

There was a reason I told you to draft Reynolds last year and it had as much to do with where he was being drafted as what he could do.  Mark Reynolds is not a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or really even a 4th rounder.  He’s definitely being overrated right now for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Is anyone that is drafting him early in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts actually looking at his numbers?  He struckout 223 times last year.  He hit .187 in September.  What if he hits .187 in April?  You gonna be happy about drafting him in the first four rounds of 2010?  Doode’s a bad luck year away from hitting .225.  What if he only steals 15 bases and hits 34 homers while batting .250?  Sounds terrific…for a guy you draft in the 7th round.  Not the 3rd round.  Stop the madness.  Please.

Chris Carpenter will undergo surgery on a compressed nerve in his shoulder. Word in The Bootheel is he’ll be fine for spring training. This will be something to watch in March and should be a decent-sized question mark during next year’s drafts. Will definitely be a high risk, high reward-type scenario. No Whammy, no Whammy, stop! Ooh… Further shoulder issues and the 60-day DL. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Moss – With a divot forming on his knee, he needs surgery that will sideline him for 6-8 months. Can’t they just fill his knee in with some sod? Steven Pearce should see action in his stead. Yo, watch where you’re standing! That’s my stead!

Asdrubal Cabrera – Wasn’t supposed to start his suspension until Thursday, but he started it yesterday. Drop The Dribble while he serves his three game suspension.

Ryan Shealy – HR yesterday. The Royals as a team are hot, which is to say they are one game out of last place. Rooting for the Royals is like rooting for your widowed Granny to find a male suitor. It’s nice to see her happy, but you don’t want to see her too happy because that’s just weird.

Chad Billingsley – I love this sumbitch. As Scully may have said (I didn’t watch), Billingsley might not have had his best tonight, but the Padres haven’t had their best all season. The Dodgers are looking like they’re playoff bound. This might cost Billingsley a start on Sunday.

Cliff Pennington – Did nothing yesterday, but he has speed and the A’s have been playing him at 2nd. He’s worth a flier for steals.

Wandy Rodriguez – 5 IP, 0 ER and 7 Ks. The Magic Wandy was strait-jacketed and dunked in a tank of E-9 by Wigginton, causing him to loss because of two unearned runs.

Evan Longoria – HR yesterday. The Rays pulled the ol’ Little League switcheroo yesterday in the second game of the DH. They sat some regulars then let them all pinch hit in the 8th as the Rays rallied for 6 runs. Free soft serve for everyone!

Tim Lincecum – Gave up four earned runs in only 4 and a third innings, but no fear he still threw 102 pitches. I have to think this carves Webb’s name on the Cy Young that the Giants so desperately wanted Lincecum to win more than ever make it through another healthy season.

Kenji Johjima – This KazIwadome rewarded patient owners with a 3-for-4 night and 3 RBIs. And by ‘patient owners,’ I mean owners that haven’t checked their fantasy baseball team since March when they auto-drafted Johjima.

Javier Vazquez – 4 IP, 5 ER. Guillen pulled a Mickey and asked to see Vazquez’s conjones. Vazquez showed marbles.

Scott Baker – 7 IP, 1 ER. Watch your feet, Baker’s throwing down a gauntlet.

Ryan Franklin – Grabbed the save yesterday, while Motte closed out the 7th inning and Chris Perez nailed down the 2nd out of the 8th inning.

Augie Ojeda – Batted 2nd and played 3rd base in the Diamondbacks biggest game of the season. Yost and Melvin obviously had a gentlemen’s bet of $1 to see who could get fired the latest in the season.

Cliff Lee – 7 IP, 5 ER and 12 earned over the last 21 and 1/3 innings. Comatose Indians fan, “Cliff, save some for the playoffs!”

Edinson Volquez – 7 and 1/3 innings, 1 ER and 9 Ks, but was pulled after only 98 pitches. Maybe Dusty let Paper, Rock, Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction Surgery Scissors decide.

What’s the difference between the ‘Stros and Stroh’s beer? The beer has an H.  ‘Stros couldn’t manage one. While 110 pitches is a slight stretch for Zambrano given he had missed 2 starts to injury, that was just an exhibition game’s amount of work when Dusty was coaching him. If anyone could throw an 150 pitch no-hitter like the type we used to throw in Wiffle Ball, it was Zambrano. This was the first no-hitter for the Cubs since 1972 which was also the last year that they were within 65 years of a championship. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

David Price – In a relief appearance today against the Yankees, David Price made his major league debut. He pitched 5 and 2/3 innings, gave up 2 ER (only one really, the other scored off Hammel after he left) and he looked impressive against a top-notch offense. He’s scheduled for one start on September 23rd against the Orioles. He’s worth the spot start and he might have some value as a middle reliever for AL-Only teams the rest of the year, but David Price’s real value is in keeper leagues and for next year.

Max Scherzer – 6 IP, 1 ER with 9 Ks. Scherzer took it to the Reds like he was McCarthy.

Andy LaRoche – 3-for-4, but they were all singles. It’ll be interesting to see if the Pirates give LaRoche a chance to play next spring. It’ll be even more interesting to see if Andy LaRoche can live up to his billing as the superior LaRoche brother. Our prediction is that their performance doesn’t get the Pittsburgh faithful singing “We Are Family” anytime soon.

Aaron Cook – 8 IP, 0 ER, might have some value down the stretch if you’re streaming starters. Cook’s usually a pretty reliable, just above average pitcher.

Kevin Gregg – Pulled after pitching to one batter in the ninth. Lindstrom’s still the closer, he was just overworked. Gregg’s about as likely to take over the closer role again as the Marlins are to having a Fidel Castro Bobblehead Doll Day.

Phil Hughes – Will get the start this Wednesday against the White Sox. That doesn’t mean he needs to be on your team.

Vladimir Guerrero – Will sit out three to four games this week. I told you to drop Vlad the other day.

Andre Ethier – Missed the last two games of the Rockies series because his wife is giving birth. Will return to the team on Monday. Why isn’t Juan Pierre helping Ethier’s wife with Lamaze? Or freakin’ James Loney.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis! No, I am Sparkakis!

Oscar Salazar – 2 HRs. Who? Some total schmohawk, but he also went deep on Saturday. These last two days are surely aberrations (Word of the Day), but if he puts some aberrations together to turn them into regulariocities (Made Up Word of the Day), then you might want to grab him in H2H leagues.

Radhames Liz – 8 IP, 0 ER. Not an option in any league. Unless you’re in a league where your pitchers’ first names have to sound like an expensive condom.

Nick Blackburn – 4 IP, 6 ER. His last name and strikeout totals make him sound like a Pirate. He’s not, he’s a Twin and he has excellent command, which makes him yawnstipating but effective.

Oliver Perez – 7 IP, 2 ER. So consistently inconsistent that it was only fitting that the Mets’ consistently inconsistent bullpen blew his chance at a win.

Luis Ayala – Blew a big game for the Mets. The kind of game that pundits point to as the one that got away. Obviously no one ever told pundits it’s impolite to point. The blown save and breach of etiquette caused Billy Wagner to cry again.

Cameron Maybin – Will be called up on Monday. Could be cheap steals if the Marlins play him. SAGNOF.

Matt Garza – Will start on three days rest on Wednesday. This isn’t great news. He had a nice rhythm going where he was good every other start. This move might throw off his rhythm.

Jeremy Sowers – In three innings, Sowers gave up 3 ER on 75 pitches. Or about half as many pitches Lincecum threw in a shutout on Saturday.

Justin Upton – HR yesterday that went about 450 feet to straightaway center. I’ll be getting excited about this guy in the offseason.

Shane Victorino – HR in the first game, 4-for-4 in the second game. The Flyin’ Hawaiian got his wings back.

Brett Myers – 9 IP, 1 ER and only 2 hits. Afterwards, Brett felt really bad saying he didn’t mean two-hitter.