Fantasy Baseball Advice

Now’s the time when we put all of our 2012 baseball predictions in one place.  Then in October we can look back at this and laugh.  Oh, and we will laugh.  Big, bellowing, seat of your pants laughs. Hindsight is indeed 20/20.  But where’s the harm in setting ourselves to look like jackasses?  We run a fantasy baseball blog, after all.  Grey’s picks in RED. Rudy’s picks in BLUE. (For what it’s Wuertz, last year Grey was two games away from predicting the World Series and he did predict the AL Rookie of the Year, NL Cy Young and NL MVP.  Take my man to Vegas!)  Anyway, here’s our predictions for baseball’s post-season awards and whatnot:

AL Pennant Winner – Los Angeles Angels of Not Really Los Angeles – I hate to go with the obvious… That’s why I’m not choosing anyone from the AL East.

AL Pennant Winner – Texas Rangers – I live 20 minutes from their AAA stadium.  Hoping this gets me free tacos for the year.

NL Pennant Winner – Cincinnati Reds – Dusty will once again face his nemesis Pujols in a series touted as, The Toothpick vs. The Hispanic Splinter.

NL Pennant Winner – Philadelphia Phillies - As long as the three aces stay healthy, I think the Phillies are the favorite even if their lineup went in the dumper.

World Series Champion – Reds – An added prediction:  Game five of the series and Mike Leake’s arm will fall off from overuse.  Only this will turn out to be a blessing because after the Reds gave Votto $200 million dollars, they’ll have no money for bats, so Votto will use Leake’s arm to bat with and homer.

World Series Champion – Texas Rangers – Free tacos!

AL ROY – Yu Darvish – I almost put Jesus Montero, but history tells us that imported pitchers do well their first year and if we ignore that we’re doomed to repeat it… But, I guess, I’m not ignoring it.  Either way, it’s a three-way fight for AL ROY this year (with Moore too).

AL ROY – Yu Darvish – It’s ridiculous that players in overseas pro leagues still qualify for this award.  Otherwise, I’d say Matt Moore.

NL ROY – Zack Cozart – This is my only prediction that I’m picking with my fantasy heart and not real baseball one.  I really want Cozart to do well.

NL ROY – Mat Gamel - Not really enamored with NL rookies this year.  I like Mesoraco and Rosario, but I don’t think they get enough playing time.  Can’t pick Cozart because it’ll only exacerbate Grey’s man crush.  Gamel’s evidently not a rookie so Yonder Alonso.  

AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez – Last year, he was better than he was in his Cy Young year without the good fortune.  Here’s to F-Her getting lucky again!

AL Cy Young – Jon Lester - Fried chicken and beer for everyone!

NL Cy Young – Zack Greinke – I’ll admit to wanting to pick Kershaw again, but there’s no fun in that.

NL Cy Young – Zack Greinke - Miffed I only got him in one league….but it’s the RCL!

AL MVP – Evan Longoria – I made this prediction back in January and I’m gonna stand by it.  Okay, sit.  It’s a long season.

AL MVP – Robinson Cano - I like Grey’s choice – particularly since he’s on a lot of our teams.  There are so many good 1Bs in the AL so it’ll be hard to pick one for MVP.

NL MVP – Joey Votto – And on a cloud made of chili in the skyline of Cincy, Marge Schott’s ghost and the ghost of Joe Morgan’s broadcasting career will be smiling down.

NL MVP – Hanley Ramirez - Guillen and Hanley will be besties this year, Hanley gets a big extension, and then regresses again.

Now put your picks in the comments and we’ll look back on this in October and mock each other.

This one goes out to the guy – one of the three TB fans that can actually be seen at a game – who was holding up the sign ‘Free Russ Canzler!’ last year.  You didn’t see that sign?  Yeah I didn’t either, mainly because it wasn’t there but since I don’t have cable I can’t verify that.  Can someone please tell me why a team that has been in the playoffs for 3 of the last 4 years doesn’t get more people at the actual ballpark without offering a Zimbear?  But back to what I had to say, Canzler was never going to see the light of day in Tampa Bay (How about I just go eat some hay. I could make things out of clay, and lay by the bay…) because he is not good at defense.  But this is a fantasy baseball blog, why should we care about defense?  Good question, hypothetical reader and the answer is simple: The Rays play real baseball against real teams…sorry, you expected more?  Oh, well Canzler has to play somewhere in order to be useful.  Their OF is full, the position he played in AAA is covered by Evan Longoria and they found their DH for the year in Luke Scott.  Also, the Rays are one of the top fielding teams in baseball.  There’s a reason a guy like Casey Kotchman got a shot to start at 1B for them last year and it wasn’t for his bat or his rapier-like wit.  They field a strong defensive ball club and Canzler was anything but a strong defender.  He racked up 13 errors at third base alone in 2011; fine numbers if he were a Milwaukee Brewer, but not for a utility role in TB.

So as the story goes, Canzler was traded to Cleveland in February for two meat pies and a 6 month subscription to Vibe magazine (every word after ‘February’ is still pending verification).  But why should we get excited about a soon to be 26 year old with only five major league plate appearances on his resume?  Sing it with me now:  Opportunity, opportunity, is knockin at your door…sorry, I started doing the jitterbug there for a second.  Russ has a healthy walk rate and has exhibited strong power numbers over the last two years, posting a .279 ISO in AA for the Cubs and a .215 last year in AAA for the Rays.  With a minor league K% rate above 20 percent, he’ll most likely saddle you in a totally non-sexual way with a .260 average.  That’s a’ight, but the ISO is what has me interested and also that I can’t tell you who is going to bat 6th in that lineup.  I can tell you Travis Hafner probably bats 5th when he’s healthy *Snickers*…the laugh, not the candy bar.  Sorry, the last time Hafner played in over 130 games was 2007.  Plus, Grady Sizemore needs a bench friend to swap funny doctor visit stories with over the course of the year.  I also can’t tell you whether Kotchman holds down the job at first all year.  I could go into extreme detail, but let’s just say his average from last year had a lot to do with his ground ball rate and how well that played on Tampa Bay turf.  He won’t be as bad as he was in Seattle but surely not as good as he was for the Rays.  With Lonnie Chisenhall looking more and more like he could use a AAA stint to start the season,  the Indians could use a little pop in their lineup.  Right now, Canzler is unowned basically everywhere — ESPN, Fleaflicker, Yahoo.  If he can get a starting job, he might land in a prime RBI slot.  With enough at-bats, 18 HRs and 90 RBIs is attainable.  Yeah, I know it’s not that exciting, but wait there’s more!  Alright, actually there’s not.  I just always wanted to say that.

On one hand, we have Evan Longoria at 7 and Yahoo has him at 13 in their O-Ranks, so we can get Longoria.  On the other hand, they have Dee Gordon at 96 in their O-Ranks and we have him at 165, so we’re not getting Gordon without reaching.  On the lesser known, third hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, what on earth is an O-Rank?  Sounds like something a teenager would say when they forgot to take their garbage out for six months.  Alas, I found the definition, “The “O-Rank” is an overall player rank based on current and prior seasons. Since it provides such a full spectrum analysis of a players abilities, the “O-Rank” is the method used for determining auto-picks in our draft for full Yahoo! Fantasy Sports games.”  A full spectrum analysis?  Who wrote this, Stephen Hawking?  I Googled “full spectrum analysis” and Google said “Do you mean gobbledygook?”  Actually, no lie, but the only other time “full spectrum analysis” was used since Al Gore invented the internet was in regards to gamma rays.  I don’t know the first thing about gamma rays, but the term “full spectrum analysis” actually makes sense to me more in regards to gamma rays than fantasy baseball rankings.  Well, whatever the case may be, we’re gonna say Yahoo’s O-Ranks are their rankings.  Key word is rank, I suppose.

“Ooh, I’m a Yahoo ‘pert and I love Michael Bourn and anyone covering Total Eclipse of the Heart.”  That’s Funston and Evans while they compile the rankings and watch The Voice.  They are just as high on Michael Bourn as every other ‘pert this and that side of the Mississippi minus Razzball.  I already went over my thoughts on Bourn’s supremacy and how everyone’s forgot his true identity:  SAGNOF!   Same goes for Curtis Granderson, who I labeled a schmohawk.  At least Yahoo didn’t put him in the top 20, that’s just common Curtis-y.  Pun point!

No one likes Jay Bruce, but me.  Honestly, I have no idea how this happened and it’s about the most puzzling thing going on this preseason.  When Bruce was first called up, the fantasy baseball community embraced him immediately, labeled him Bruuuuuuuuuuce and sold the Ohio Turnpike to the Middle East in his honor as reported by Matt Taibbi.  Now, we’re coming off a season where he finally put everything together and he’s going to be 25 years old.  This is the time to move on from him?  I nearly put Bruce in my top 20 overall (ended up just outside of it at 27) and Yahoo has him at 51.  I’ll happily go with Bruce in every league, and that’s not just the Jersey in me talking.  Though I do write with one hand and fist pump with the other.

Rather than going through all of their wonky player rankings, I’ve made a chart.  “Yo, Differences Between My Rankings and O-Ranks, you’ve been charted!”  The positive numbers mean you have a good chance of getting those players if you follow my rankings.  The negative numbers mean Yahoo’s ranked these players higher than me.  Help for this chart was provided by frequent commenters, MattTruss223 and Cheese.  Promotional consideration was provided by Wheat Thins, “Now go eat yourself thin!”

Here’s a post that’s gonna make you wanna slap ya mama and call her Frances Fisher.  The other day I told you how to draft your pitchers for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I laid it out to you nice and simple (if you have a degree in “What The Hell Is Grey Talking About?”  Not a PhD, mind you.  Just a BS.)  Today, we forget all that jabberwocky on the who-ha and get down to business old school-style (which means if you don’t comprehend, I will hit you over the head with a baseball bat signed by Joe Clark.)  What I’m hoping to lay out to you is who do you draft 2nd if you’ve drafted so and so first.  I think it might be helpful to go through pairings for your 5 outfielders, all your middle and corner infielders too.  I’m not sure I’ll have the time or patience to do them though.   We’ll see!  Or not.  Your choice.  For easy reference, the royal we will be using the top 10 2012 fantasy baseball rankings and the top 20 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5, MI, CI, 5 OF, 1 Utility, 1 Catcher league.  Anyway, here’s some pairings for the first two rounds of 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

Miguel Cabrera – I’d put him with just about anyone, but another 1st baseman.  The reality of the situation is you want to get someone that is going to give you a few steals, say, 10.  A third baseman would work, but it might be unrealistic to think you’re going to get Longoria.  That leaves you with Wright.  That doesn’t sound too shabby.  Think about how for the last five years prior to 2011 and you would’ve loved to have Wright and Miggy on the same team.  I say, live in the past and do it.  But I’d say “Do it” like Ben Stiller in the Starsky & Hutch remake.  Now it’s totally not ideal to grab Wright if you think Miggy will get 3rd base eligibility.  Right now, I put it at about 85% that he will have 3rd base eligibility within a few weeks of Opening Day, so if you wanna grab an outfielder instead, I’m not hating the game or the playa (that’s not Spanish for beach).  I say grab Andrew McCutchen or Jay Bruce.  Wanna go for a 2nd baseman?  Kinsler might be there.  Swiggy with one of those three looks real nice to me.  Your team would be balanced heading off to the third pick.  Someone like Reyes or Hanley would also work, though they might not be there.  Now, the risk with not grabbing a 3rd baseman is if Miggy starts treating grounders at third like they’re empty beer cans and starts booting them.  Then you may have punted 3rd and Miggy is sent back to first before his 3rd base eligibility kicks in.  Kicks being the operative word.  Really, as long as you avoid a 1st baseman, catcher and a starter while getting some combo of power and speed, you should be fine.  For those of you who are thinking you can grab a 1st baseman and then move Miggy to 3rd two weeks in, you’re screwed if Miggy doesn’t get 3rd base eligibility, even if that possibility is only slim.  And, yes, that’s the only time Miggy and slim will ever be used in a sentence.  In summation, don’t put unnecessary risk on the table in the first two rounds.

Albert Pujols – More or less the same deal as Miggy, obviously without the possible 3rd base eligibility caveat.  I wouldn’t worry about anything other than trying to get a 2nd pick with at least 10 steals, and no 1st baseman, catcher or starter.

Joey Votto – You could pair Votto with Yuniesky Betancourt and you’d be fine.  Votto’s that good.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a number one pick next year.  Let’s run away together, Joey!  Wait, what am I saying?  Oh, pairings, right.  Yeah, you don’t want Votto with a 1st baseman, obviously.  He’s similar to Miggy and Pujols.  You want a third baseman, but he can work with just about anything.

Jose Bautista – Hey, something other than a 1st baseman.  Yay, Joey Bats!  Anyone but a 3rd baseman would work.  You really want a 1st baseman.  (This is a common theme.  Leave the first two rounds with a 3rd baseman and a 1st baseman and you’re in better shape than the schmohawk who took Hanley and Cano.)  Also, I worry that Bautista’s average might bottom out a little (to the .265 range), so I’d avoid a guy like Kinsler or Stanton.  You don’t want to leave the 2nd round with a potential combined average of .260.  If you take Baustista and a 3rd baseman because you think Bautista can play your outfield, you’re overthinking.  Think of Bautista as a 3rd baseman.  If during the season you need to put him in the outfield because you picked up a 3rd baseman off waivers, then more power to you.  Right now you don’t put him in the outfield because then you’re only going to draft 4 outfielders and scrounge for a 3rd baseman.  Your 3rd baseman is gonna be crap and you’re gonna end up with Bautista there anyway and you’re gonna be short at outfield.  One thing you can do later on is draft a 3rd baseman at your corner infidel slot.  Then if he does well, you can move him into 3rd, Bautista into your outfield and have the flexibility to grab a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman off waivers for your corner slot.

Evan Longoria – Since Longoria’s speed is a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with a guy like Kemp, McCutchen or Reyes.  Kemp might not be realistic though considering he’s been going first in some mocks.  In my fantasy fantasy world, they’d both be there though.  Same goes for Ellsbury.  I’d even pair Longoria with Pedroia since he usually gives hella at-bats and a decent average. Someone like Kinsler or Stanton aren’t terrible, but you’re putting yourself in a potential average hole that you’ll need to dig out of later.  Just keep in mind, Longoria’s average and steals may need help.

Matt Kemp – Position-wise, he doesn’t go with many.  Stats-wise, he goes with everyone, except a pitcher.  This is probably why he’s going number one overall in mocks.  The problem with that is you draft Kemp and you have one outfielder but still need four more of those and have no infielders.  That guarantees you will leave the 2nd round missing at least two of 2nd base, 1st base or 3rd base.  In the best case scenario, you draft Kemp and Longoria or Wright, so you don’t have to worry about 3rd base.  If you get Kemp and Longoria or Wright, you’ll need to pray your Hosmer, Konerko or other 1st base pick works out.  Otherwise, it might be a long season.  Remember, Hosmer looks great right now, but if he was a sure thing, he’d be going in the first round.  If you can get Kemp and Prince Fielder, then more power to you, though that seems like a pipe dream in the mocks I’ve seen.  Kemp and Kinsler is okay, but then you have no 1st baseman or 3rd baseman and you’ll be up against teams with Miggy, Pujols, Longoria, Prince etc.  I.e., you’ll be doomed.  Kemp plus another outfielder is you throwing in the towel after the first two rounds.

Troy Tulowitzki – This isn’t about pairing, but I don’t see how I’m going to draft Tulo in any league this year.  Just going too early for my taste.  Any the hoo!  If I do, I’d give a lookie-loo to a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman, Sam I am, ma’am.  Since Tulo is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d also take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo).  You are dealing with more risk though if you go the speed route with your second pick because if Tulo craps out with another injury and you have, say, McCutchen, you may only get around 35 homers combined from your first two picks while Fielder can produce that by himself.  I’d also be wary of going with CarGo.  Not because of the team thing, but more because of the injury-prone thing. I don’t love the idea of Cano and Tulo.  You’re all middle infield.  Why don’t you just go and marry Adam Everett?  Realistically, if you have to draft Tulo in the top 5 to get him, you’re gonna be looking at Wright, Beltre or Bruce at the end of the 2nd round.  I’d take any of them, but now with Bruce, you will have no corner infidels.  It’s precarious.  (Do you see why I always try to go 1st base or 3rd base in the 1st round?)

Justin Upton – Upton is similar to Kemp.  No outfielders with him.  You really should take a corner man.  Longoria’s great if he’s still there, Fielder will work wonders and clean up after himself!

Prince Fielder – I’d take Longoria with Fielder, I’d also take Fielder with Longoria.  See how that works?  Since Fielder is power first, I’d pair him with Reyes, Hanley or McCutchen too.  He’s a similar pairing to Pujols and Miggy.  Kinsler?  Fine!  Wright?  Great!  Instead of gum, chew bacon!  It all works!

Adrian Gonzalez – He could have a bit more risk than Fielder on the average side, but for our purposes he’s nearly identical to Fielder in projections and pairing.

Robinson Cano – No Kinsler or Pedroia.  Similarly to Tulo, since Cano is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo), a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman.  I’d try to avoid Reyes or Hanley.  You don’t want to have to scrounge together an outfield and two corners leaving the 2nd round.

Jacoby Ellsbury – You don’t want an outfielder.  You can take Reyes, Hanley, Pedroia or Kinsler, but then you might only have 35-40 homers after two picks and some people are getting that with one pick.  If a 1st baseman (Votto, Fielder) is there, then you just scored.  If no one is there without reaching down to David Wright, you might have yourself a Javid Wrightsbury combo player that goes 60/60.  Or you might get a player that hurts his hamstring and complains the fences are still too far, leaving you wanting Justdrian Gonzaton.  (<–And that’s how you make an already confusing post, more confusing!)

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2012 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2012 Rays Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Jason Collette from DRaysBay.

1) I have Evan Longoria as my preseason 2012 MVP pick.  This is the year, friend.  According to me.  Live with me for a second (not literally) and give me your most optimistic line for Longoria.

Ignore the easy route and looking at his insanely low BABIP last year and look at the narrative. He strained his oblique in Game 2 of the season and missed 26 games because of it. He came back only to develop a nerve issue in his big toe on his right foot that did not allow him to properly get into baseballs like good hitters want to do. He didn’t get to 100% until somewhere around mid-June, right about the same time Matt Joyce cooled off from his rocket-fueled streak in May. Now, let’s get back to that BABIP. His plate appearance and batted ball results were nearly identical to what they were in 2010: K%, BB%, pitches per plate appearance, G/L/F splits, swing rates, etc. Yet, his BABIP fell 97 points and was only over .225 in three of the five months in which he played last season. What quietly flew under the radar during his monster close to the season was that he walked more than he struck out from August 1st throughout the rest of the season and did so without sacrificing any power as he had 26 extra base hits in just 244 plate appearances. .285 with 220 R+RBI, 40 HR, & 10 SB is not crazy to predict.

2)  Desmond Jennings and I had a baby.  It was under-reported that’s why you didn’t hear it.  Okay, so I basically love all Rays (except Hellickson, we’ll get to him).  You’re a fantasy guy yourself, so you know how much the fantasy community loves Desmond Jennings.  Will we be disappointed or will he be a 2nd round pick in 2013?

I guess he took that maternity leave for most of September then. As awesome as he was in August, major league pitchers quickly found the holes in his swing in September and he proved time and time again he couldn’t lay off that high fastball and then got him making bad contact while protecting the plate after that. Dive into small sample size hell with me for a second and revisit the 17 games Jennings had after his 2 home run performance in Toronto. He hit .174/.278/.246 after that  with just two extra base hits as pitchers gave him a steady diet of those high fastballs until he finally started laying off them toward the end of the season. Durability is always a concern with him as he has only had one blemish-free professional season. I’ve seen him go in the top 50 in some drafts but that’s a risky move – not because of the talent but because of the durability issues.

3) Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 was a mess outside of ERA.  This year his ERA catches up to his other peripherals.  True, false or I shall explain.

False. The “norm” is different in Tampa Bay. Joe Maddon employs more defensive shifts than any other manager in baseball and it is no mistake that the Rays pitching staff has had the lowest team BABIP each of the past four seasons. Sure, Longoria and Zobrist are elite defenders, but Jason Bartlett was no gem during his run here and Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman aren’t terribly rangy side to side. Positioning is everything so a .223 BABIP against a team BABIP of .280 looks a bit better. Shields’ disastrous 2010 season is the only Rays’ starting pitcher to have a BABIP over .285 during that run as well. Hellickson is flyball heavy, but 25% of his flyballs in play never leave the infield as he induces a lot of bad contact. Also understand that his K/9 was problematic because he had John Jaso “catching” him often. Jaso is to catching what Rex Grossman is to quarterbacking. Hellickson had the lowest called strike three rate in baseball last season and thanks to the work of now Houston Astros front office guru Mike Fast, we know that Jose Molina is the best framing catcher in baseball. It is pretty easy to envision a caddy situation here as Hellickson is also susceptible to basestealers in that he isn’t quick to home plate. Molina’s framing and throwing were an early Christmas present for the young kid out of Iowa.

4) How many innings do we see from Matt Moore this year?  Does he break camp with the team?  I’ve already dropped my Matt Moore fantasy.  Now yours please.

The Rays like to keep increases from season to season at 20%, but it’s with pitch counts, not innings pitched. As long as Moore isn’t turning in Scott Kazmir 2009 specials early in the season, I see no reason why he would be under any kind of restriction in September unless the team is not contending. Then again, after what happened in 2011, the Rays would probably need to be 14 games out for the front office to throw in the white flag. We are 20 days from pitchers and catchers reporting and the Rays still have six starting pitchers. Seven when you factor in the strong likelihood of Alex Cobb going to extended spring training and eight if you consider Alex Torres could pitch in the back end of most rotations in baseball right now. Putting Davis and/or Niemann in the bullpen does nothing to help their trade value, and the bullpen is already a bit crowded with guaranteed spots for Farnsworth, Peralta, Rodney, Howell, and likely McGee. Moore is already under contract so the typical model of the team sending him down past the Super Two deadline is out of the way and if the team did send him down, the fans (insert joke here) would boo louder than they boo a B.J. Upton strikeout looking. The run support should be there this year, much like Hellickson enjoyed last season so if he is up for the full season as a starter, 12+ wins, 180+ K’s is expected, not hoped for.

5) Do Tampa Bay Ray fans live in fear of the day that Andrew Friedman finds out that Jews aren’t supposed to live in Tampa until they collect Social Security?

There’s a rumor that Friedman has part ownership in the team which is why he has turned down lucrative jobs elsewhere. That tells us he is hoping to turn a profit when the team is eventually relocated to a more appreciative market so he can cash in his chips just in time to re-enter a recovering Wall Street market and make more millions to buy his own Island. As long as Gerry Hunsicker is still in the organization, the thought of Friedman leaving is easier to digest. Losing Dan Feinstein to Oakland was a tough talent bleed for the front office but adding former fantasy guru and now scout extraordinaire Jason Grey to the front office was a nice trade-off. Besides, with Jason Grey out of the way, maybe I can finally finish in the top 3 in AL Tout Wars.