Fantasy Baseball Advice

ESPN fantasy baseball rankings are the same old shizz, different effin’ year.  We’ll get to them in a second.  I gotta build up my anger.  Right now, I’m feeling downright jovial because I just watched the coup de grâce of unintentional comedy — ESPN’s Rankings Roundtables.  If you have a few minutes, watch a part of one.  You don’t need to watch the whole thing, unless you’re into Gitmo’ing yourself.  A few things I noticed from watching a minute of one:  1) Cockcroft looks like he wants to stab Berry in the eye with Stephania Bell’s injury reports.  2) The general air surrounding the proceedings is everyone in the room knows what a bad idea the roundtables are because then people will get to see the methodology behind their rankings is Berry whining, “But guys!”  3) Brendan Roberts sits with his hands folded, trying not to get called on.  But what the casual viewer is missing is Brendan’s also mumbling to Cockcroft to nudge him if he falls asleep.  4) They are in a bare room, but sitting in what appears to be Louis Vuitton chairs.  5) Brendan Roberts gelled his hair for this.  6) I wish they sat Karabell and Cockcroft together so it would look like an Office Space reunion with Michael Bolton and Milton.

I don’t bring these videos up simply because there’s a lack of unintentional comedy since Kim Jong-il passed and can no longer look at things.  I think it gives you an eye into the belly of the beast.  There’s no methodology.  There’s no rhyme or reason.  If you held ESPN’s rankings in any regard before this, now you see their rankings come from a room of guys trying not to upset the head bozo.  So when you see ESPN ranks Michael Bourn 35th overall, you say to yourself, “Yeah, well, the head bozo must’ve wanted him early.”  Then when you see ESPN gives Desmond Jennings the projections of 82/16/51/.256/37, you think that’s great projections, but why is he ranked way down at 104th overall?  There’s no reason!  That’s the take away.  (Side note:  I Googled to see if take away was one word or two.  Didn’t really find a definitive answer, but I found this sentence as an example for take away, “The death of her mother removed the last obstacle to their marriage.”  Huh?  That doesn’t even use take away and the mother dying is the last obstacle for their marriage is the best example they can come up with?  I wonder if Free Dictionary dot com has definition roundtables.  Any hoo…)

There’s some players that stand out with a huge difference between me and ESPN.  One guy I’m going to happily own in multiple leagues is Howie Kendrick.  His ranking on most ‘pert sheets is as puzzling to me as Jay Bruce (which you’ll hear more of if you listen to the podcast that is coming later today.  You can hardly wait.  No, you.  The Razzball Podcast:  Where I sound as sharp as Brendan Roberts’s hair!).  People loved Kendrick for a bunch of years and he disappointed, then he has his best year, is 28 years old, gets Pujols into his lineup and NOW (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) everyone is down on him.  Hey, Talking Heads, stop making sense.

Next guy that stands out is David Ortiz.  They ranked him 67th overall.  About 120 picks before me.  Then they ranked Adam Lind about 70 spots after Ortiz while giving them nearly the same projections.  Sure, Ortiz is 8 years older so, I guess, he’s got experience.  What he doesn’t have is position eligibility.  I guess it’s better to take a 36-year-old utility man in the 6th round and wait on a 28-year-old 1st baseman.  Yeah, I have no idea either.  My head is starting to hurt, so I’m gonna move on.

Boy, everyone hates Mark Reynolds.  I know, he doesn’t hit for average, but are we all playing in one category leagues?  If so, let a brother know and say brother like Hulk Hogan.  That would help explain Reynolds and Bourn’s rankings.  According to their own stupid Player Rater, Reynolds was more valuable than Wright, Zimmerman and A-Rod last year.  He was nearly as valuable as Longoria, according to them.  Sure, those other 3rd basemen had off years, but you know what Reynolds didn’t have?  An off year.  In fact, in his five year career, if you assume anything .220 or higher is fine for Reynolds, then he’s only had one off year.  I think Ryan Zimmerman has only had one ‘on’ year.  Reynolds ranks 156th overall at ESPN right after… Wait for it… Here it comes… Shoot, I think I left it in the other room… Hold on one second… Okay, here it is… Reynolds is ranked after Carlos Lee!  Wait, huh?!  Next year for their roundtables, they should bring in the real wizard behind the rankings:  The homeless person they bought lunch for at Benihana while they picked his brain.

Below is a rough and tumble charts of where some of the bigger discrepancies were between ESPN and me.  The first chart is where I’m higher on someone, which is 95% (no math done for that number) young guys who I see getting better.  The second chart is where I’m lower on players, which is 95% (still no math!) older guys or guys coming off career years that I don’t have much faith in.  The chart was provided by Fantasy Pros.  I’ll warn you; if you go to that site you might find yourself losing three hours of your life while your loved one threatens divorce.

Player	Position	Grey’s Rank	ESPN’s Rank	Difference
Peter Bourjos	OF	95	239	144
Jose Tabata	OF	149	280	131
Yoenis Cespedes	OF	117	242	125
Trevor Cahill	SP	158	269	111
Ike Davis	1B	98	208	110
Ryan Howard	1B	87	196	109
Danny Valencia	3B	167	268	101
Colby Rasmus	OF	115	206	91
Austin Jackson	OF	169	257	88
Danny Espinosa	2B	102	189	87
Emilio Bonifacio	SS	126	213	87
Alex Rios	OF	114	197	83
Delmon Young	OF	170	252	82
Carlos Quentin	OF	147	224	77
Jhoulys Chacin	SP	157	232	75
Howie Kendrick	2B	46	118	72
Mark Reynolds	3B	84	156	72
Alcides Escobar	SS	186	258	72
Derek Holland	SP	174	244	70
Ian Desmond	SS	166	235	69
Jair Jurrjens	SP	187	256	69
Brennan Boesch	OF	194	261	67
Justin Morneau	1B	205	270	65
Mike Leake	SP	238	300	62
Aaron Hill	2B	151	211	60
Logan Morrison	OF	94	153	59
Mike Moustakas	3B	135	190	55
Dexter Fowler	OF	195	247	52
Adam Lind	1B	85	135	50
Mat Gamel	3B	214	264	50
Jesus Montero	C	139	188	49
Jake Peavy	SP	234	282	48
Kendrys Morales	1B	203	249	46
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	C	247	293	46
Buster Posey	C	82	127	45
Gio Gonzalez	SP	88	132	44
Mark Trumbo	1B	182	226	44
Kevin Youkilis	3B	56	99	43
Vance Worley	SP	209	250	41
Salvador Perez	C	246	287	41
Carlos Marmol	CL	143	183	40
Jonathan Lucroy	C	250	290	40
Michael Young	3B	58	97	39
Drew Stubbs	OF	73	112	39
Brandon Morrow	SP	132	170	38
Kenley Jansen	CL	176	214	38
Anibal Sanchez	SP	101	137	36
Alejandro De Aza	OF	258	294	36
Desmond Jennings	OF	70	104	34
Jason Heyward	OF	75	109	34
Russell Martin	C	249	283	34
Krispie Young	OF	74	107	33
Brandon Belt	1B	202	234	32
Matt Thornton	CL	221	253	32
Madison Bumgarner	SP	50	80	30
Jemile Weeks	2B	172	202	30

 

Player	Position	Grey’s Rank	ESPN’s Rank	Difference
Carlos Beltran	OF	145	115	-30
Jose Altuve	2B	267	237	-30
Mariano Rivera	CL	104	73	-31
Tyler Clippard	MR	282	251	-31
Dee Gordon	SS	165	133	-32
Andrew Bailey	CL	190	158	-32
Jim Johnson	CL	274	241	-33
Sean Rodriguez	2B	278	245	-33
Jered Weaver	SP	65	31	-34
Mike Napoli	C	81	47	-34
David Freese	3B	228	194	-34
Mitch Moreland	OF	261	227	-34
Brandon League	CL	226	191	-35
Chris Perez	CL	273	238	-35
Jason Bartlett	SS	289	254	-35
Ian Kennedy	SP	108	72	-36
Doug Fister	SP	180	144	-36
Ryan Dempster	SP	239	203	-36
Bud Norris	SP	237	198	-39
Tim Hudson	SP	179	139	-40
Jason Motte	CL	177	136	-41
Joel Hanrahan	CL	162	119	-43
Gaby Sanchez	1B	206	162	-44
Neil Walker	2B	211	167	-44
Ben Zobrist	2B	96	51	-45
Kyle Farnsworth	CL	218	172	-46
Matt Moore	SP	121	74	-47
Wandy Rodriguez	SP	213	166	-47
Melky Cabrera	OF	197	149	-48
James Shields	SP	113	64	-49
Alexei Ramirez	SS	136	87	-49
Daniel Murphy	2B	285	236	-49
Tim Stauffer	SP	231	181	-50
Brandon McCarthy	SP	230	179	-51
J.J. Hardy	SS	164	111	-53
Jordan Walden	CL	217	163	-54
Adam Wainwright	SP	155	98	-57
Ichiro Suzuki	OF	148	89	-59
Martin Prado	3B	229	168	-61
Carlos Pena	1B	253	192	-61
Michael Pineda	SP	154	91	-63
Ryan Madson	CL	163	100	-63
Chris Carpenter	SP	142	78	-64
Ted Lilly	SP	232	164	-68
Matt Capps	CL	275	205	-70
Javy Guerra	MR	280	210	-70
Scott Baker	SP	233	157	-76
Jhonny Peralta	SS	204	126	-78
Angel Pagan	OF	262	178	-84
Freddie Freeman	1B	207	120	-87
Daniel Bard	SP	272	185	-87
Yunel Escobar	SS	288	200	-88
Michael Bourn	OF	125	35	-90
John Danks	SP	301	209	-92
Chris Sale	SP	271	177	-94
Jeremy Hellickson	SP	189	93	-96
Jason Kubel	OF	295	199	-96
Josh Willingham	OF	286	184	-102
Rafael Betancourt	CL	220	114	-106
David Ortiz	U	184	66	-118
Stephen Drew	SS	293	160	-133
Carlos Lee	OF	298	155	-143
Hiroki Kuroda	SP	300	147	-153

While we at Razzball are content toiling within the modest confines of fantasy baseball blogdom, we occasionally like to flex our journalistic muscles and take on a challenging interview.

Our interview subject is Matthew Berry -  the Director of Fantasy Sports at ESPN.  His career has taken him from stand-up comedy to Hollywood where he paid his dues with writing gigs like Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles which was up for a 2001 Razzie (unaffiliated to Razzball) as Worst Remake or Sequel but lost to Planet of the Apes.  He followed his passion of fantasy baseball and wrote for Rotoworld before starting his own fantasy blog TalentedMrRoto.com that was purchased by ESPN in 2007.

Last note – unlike our interviews to date (see Spike Lee, Sarah Palin, and Rickey Henderson), this interview was real.  ESPN is pimping their Fantasy Baseball folks on a PR junket and asked us to conduct this interview….the site that brought you Hater Bell….. When we asked Matthew Berry towards the end of the interview why us?  He seemed as puzzled as anyone….go figure.

GREY: First off, thanks for A’ing our Q’s, mucho appreciado Senor Fruitazi.  You’re a good sport since a lot of the time, like a blogger Luke Skywalker would say, You Are My Fodder.  I started Razzball when I was laid off during the WGA strike and I know you’re also a screenwriter or were or whatever, so I just want to say thanks for paving the way for me to go from an underappreciated, society misfit to an underpaid, society misfit.  You’re the wind beneath my wings!

Okay, brownnosing aside, I know how hard it is to do fantasy baseball rankings.  You really can’t please everybody all the time.  With that said, WHAT WERE YOU THINKING, MAN?!  I put Dustin Pedroia, Josh Hamilton and Cliff Lee in our 2009 Fantasy overrated category.   But your rankings have a vibe of “What was good last year is a tasty nugget to covet this year.”  Defend these three or quit your post at ESPN and move to Cape Horn.

MATTHEW BERRY: Cliff Lee developed a new pitch last year so I don’t think he’s necessarily in for a regression to ‘before last year.’  Hamilton stayed healthy and…he’s in Texas.  This makes Hamilton valuable.  Pedroia’s my biggest question mark.  Is his power for real?  If it is, then he could be very valuable.

GREY: When anyone mentions closers on Razzball, I point them to our Fantasy Baseball Glossary entry for SAGNOF — Saves Ain’t Got No Face.  Double negative aside, you know you want to agree with me.  So… Go ahead.

MATTHEW BERRY: I’ve said forever that you don’t pay for saves.  So… Um… Yes, I agree with that.  There’s very few closers out that I think are rock solid this year.  I count 8 coming into the season where you’re like, “Okay, that’s clearly the guy” and there’s no risk.  And that was before questions about Brad Lidge showed up.  So I think you’re down to seven.

GREY: What top 20 pick are you most excited about?  Least excited about?

MATTHEW BERRY: Most excited about Miguel Cabrera. He’s do for a monster, monster year.  Most people look at last year as a disappointment, but he actually had a huge 2nd half.  Once he adjusted to the new position and to the new league.  He’s still going towards the end of the 1st round, but I think he’s a guy you can look up at the end of the year and be the number one fantasy player overall.

GREY: Agreed.

MATTHEW BERRY: Certainly top three.   So that’s the guy I’m most excited about and least excited about A-Rod.  There’s so many variables.  He’s so crazy.  I believe we have not heard the end of the A-Rod story.  This is based on nothing more than my gut.  I don’t want anyone thinking I have insider information from ESPN.  This is based on nothing more than my gut.  I think there’s more to the story.  I think it’s going to come out that he used more than what he’s said.  I think the story is going to continue throughout the summer.  I think if the Yankees don’t have an amazing year he’s going to be left holding the bag.  I mean… I just don’t like him.  I’ve been very open about that.

GREY: A fantasy baseballer’s (<– my Mom’s term) job is to unearth late round bargains.  Who is this year’s Ryan Ludwick?  Tell my readers now.  They thank you.

MATTHEW BERRY: Shin-Soo Choo.

GREY: I like him too. Our 20 risky pitcher for 2009 post points out a few candidates to avoid at your draft.  You probably disagree with Ricky Nolasco’s inclusion there like I disagree with MILF’s nickname on VH-1′s I Love Money 2.  Go ahead, make a case for Nolasco.

MATTHEW BERRY: The case for Nolasco is (to) look at what he did last year.  Right?  I mean, over the 2nd half of last year after the All-Star Break, Nolasco 4th in MLB in strikeouts.  Had a ridiculous 98 to 12 K/BB ratio… I’m doing this off the top of my head so it’s 96 to 12 or 98 to 12. (It’s 98.)  He hasn’t shown any sign of being injury-prone or…um… He’s still young.  So, I mean, I think overuse at this point is a bit premature.

GREY: You are admirably outspoken on your fantasy strategies – e.g., don’t pay for saves, draft speed…  Do you get a lot of hate mail–

MATTHEW BERRY: (jumps in) It’s more than just that.  Those are just two of them.

GREY: Okay, those are two.  Do you get a lot of hate mail from people bemoaning their crappy closers and their Carl Crawford-led offense?

MATTHEW BERRY: I would say my hate mail is pretty evenly spread out among all subjects.

GREY: Let’s say we’re close friends –

MATTHEW BERRY: I find this hard to believe already.  But go ahead…

GREY: What, no rapport?  Is it my breath?  Should I return to the brownnosing?

MATTHEW BERRY: It’s quite all right.  Just go ahead.

GREY: Okay, so I’m about to join a random ESPN league.  Given that your core strategies are read by many of the participants on the site, would you suggest I follow your strategy or move closer to the opposite since there will be more bargains (i.e., top closers go later)?

MATTHEW BERRY: Well, I appreciate, as my pretend close friend, that everyone is going along with my strategy.  I don’t think that’s the case.   Fantasy sports more than anything else is a place where everyone thinks they know more than everyone else.  That’s one of the points of it.  You want to prove you know more than everyone else.  So I think my strategies work, I think every league is different, obviously every rule is different, every fantasy player has different tendencies. My recommendation would be, in a vacuum, that you don’t abandon a strategy just because everyone else is doing it.

With that said, there’s definitely something to zigging where everyone else is zagging.  Where I wouldn’t pay for closers maybe I would go for starting pitching more, because I tend to say wait on starting pitching.  I might try to lock up a scarce position like I might draft three 2nd basemen.  Give myself depth somewhere to trade if there was suddenly a run on something.  As opposed to chasing a lower end guy at one position.  Suddenly, a bunch of 3rd basemen are going off the board, so instead of going early on a so-so third baseman just to have someone, I might load up on another position.  “Okay, I’m going to make sure I have a bunch of good 2nd basemen and trade them.”

GREY: The amount of league data you have at ESPN must be staggering.  Have you given thought to summarizing this data and publishing it?  For example, what players were on the highest percentage of teams that lost?  Do teams that have invest in say a 2B/SS combination in the first two rounds or pick a starter in the 1st round fare better/average/worse than the average team?  That type of information would really add some credence.

MATTHEW BERRY: It’s been suggested.  It’s a matter of resources.  It’s actually not that easy to pull that data as you might think.  So… It’s been suggested.  It’s up to the people that run our technology group and the people who run our fantasy content and I do neither.  So I’m not the right guy to answer that question.  I am ESPN’s lead fantasy analyst.

[Rudy's Editor Note:  C'mon Worldwide Leader!  You have a treasure trove of data to actually validate (or invalidate) fantasy baseball theories.  Allow us at the data and we'll reduce our ESPN-razzing by 40%!]

GREY: If Baseball Tonight anchors and alumni participated in a fantasy baseball league, who do you think would win?  Who will finish 2nd to last in front of Eric Young?

MATTHEW BERRY: Steve Phillips would win.  Steve Phillips plays fantasy.  He knows it really well.  In fact, Steve Phillips won an internal Baseball Tonight league last year against a bunch of researchers and producers and people that really play.  So Steve Phillips is the guy who I think would win. The guy that I think would lose is…um… The guy I would say would lose…. Um… The guy who would finish last is Kruk. (He’s) been very open about his disdain.  He’s never played fantasy so like anything I think it takes a learning curve.  John Kruk has publicly said that if he played he wouldn’t do a lot of the moves.  So I could see him getting bored with it.

GREY: Has anyone mentioned to you that your on-screen presence is reminiscent of Crazy Eddie – the 80′s electronics store where the prices were innnnnnnnsane?  Note, you do publish manifestos, a crazy man’s journal…

MATTHEW BERRY: No, I’ve never heard that one.  I’ve heard the gamut.  But I’ve never heard that one.

GREY: Ever thought of being known as Wild Berry?

MATTHEW BERRY: No, I have not.  I try to avoid obvious puns on my own last name.

GREY: Your lack of canoodle time with the ladies is worldwide leader renown.  Can anyone have a meaningful relationship and be good in fantasy sports?

MATTHEW BERRY: It’s good fodder.  Although it’s changing recently… Since being at ESPN, it hasn’t been a priority.  I date women that are wrong for me.  And I’m probably wrong for women that date me.  I don’t blame any of it on fantasy sports.  Nate, who I do the podcast with, he’s very happily married.

GREY: Could you say our tagline for us? Razzball — Something to read between masturbation sessions.

MATTHEW BERRY: No. I have no problem with the phrase itself, but I’m not sure I agree with it.

Okay, we’re going to put behind us the absurd notion that absolutely everything has changed in a little over a month of a six month season. I’m not going to point out regression to the mean, skill sets or anything else in regards to players doing what they should do over the marathon-like baseball season. We’re going to assume ESPN knows better than us. That their rankings a month ago made sense and today their new rankings also make sense. We’re not going to say, “How could Brandon Webb be ranked tenth overall on Berry’s ranking yet Harang is ranked 70th?” We’re not going to say, they kinda have the same numbers, except for wins. We’re going to assume Webb will go 30-0 and Harang will go 3-27. We’re going to do all of that because we’re all brainwashed. We won’t second guess Karabell ranking Webb first overall. That’s right. We’re going to take our medicine, because that’s what we do — day in and day out. What choice do we have? You get all of this tremendous information at ESPN Hindsighter™; they know better than us because they broadcast games. And they’re owned by Disney. And Disney stockholders must know better than me. And… Fuck that! Is Hater Bell the only one that’s irate? You’re not frustrated with the status quo?

You need to start listening to some ’80s PE, and stop watching Flavor of Love. You need to get angry, quickfast. Put down the wine cooler and pick up a four-oh of OE. Stop holding your girlfriend’s pocketbook while she’s in the bathroom. Take her cash out of her wallet, drop the purse in the garbage and take the eighteen-year-old Wetzel’s Pretzels girl home and do her like Karabell’s been doing to his readers for the last seven years. You’re all to blame. Karabell et al is the meter maid who gave you a ticket while you ran into the store to get change. Karabell’s your eighth grade crush who asked your best friend to the Sadie Hawkins dance. Karabell’s your insecurity and that shizz is eating you alive. /rant