Fantasy Baseball Advice

Edwin Turns Tampa Bay Into Jacksonville

April 08, 2011 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 112 Comments →

After seeing Edwin Jackson pitch yesterday, I felt as happy as this guy on the inside.  I ran around my block yelling “Yuuuuupppp” like Dave Hester in Storage Wars.  I went to Coldstone Creamery and got a low fat sundae that had 2700 calories and I ate it (with extra jimmies)!  Yesterday, Jackson’s line was 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners and 13 Ks.  He’s now 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 20 Ks in 14 innings.  Giddy up, snitches!  Sure, like I tell my girlfriends, beware the small sample size, but I liked Jackson throughout the preseason.  Wanna see where I wrote my Edwin Jackson fantasy in sparkle dust?  Click on that link-a-ma-thingie.  Right now, Jackson is owned in 29.1% of ESPN leagues.  Even when you consider 40% of all ESPN leagues are already abandoned, it’s still too low.  BTW, if other fantasy sites tell you to pick up Edwin Jackson now, tell them to go eff themselves, Razzball told you back in January.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Lastings Milledge – White Sox designated him for assignment.  That assignment is to stop sucking.

Trevor Cahill – 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Blue Kays.  Here’s what I said in the preseason, “Makes sense that Cahill can’t even buy a K in his last name.  In 2009, Cahill’s K-rate was 4.53.  Last year, it was 5.40.  It’s a good trend but I’ll wait until 2012 when it’s actually up to something presentable.  No Ks is a than, but no thans.  He’ll probably have an ERA over 4.00 in 2011, but I’ll be generous and give him… 2011 Projections:  8-9/3.90/1.15/130″  And that’s me quoting me!  I’m still on board with all that.  His xFIP was high last year and his K-rate was atrocious.  Now the interesting thing about Cahill — and, yes, when I say interesting, I probably mean not that interesting — he had a solid K-rate in the minors.  If Cahill strikes out guys this year, I’d only rank it a 5 on a scale of surprising.  Or about as surprising as food poisoning from all you can eat sushi.

Ricky Romero – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Even though he pitches in the AL East, I’d own him because RR Cool Jay is doing it well.

Jon Lester – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  This was against the Indians, but Lester is a bona fide number one against any wahoos.

Fausto Carmona – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Carmona looked good which isn’t a compliment to him but an indictment of the Sox right now.  Somebody cover Ted Williams’ frozen head, he shouldn’t have to see the Red Sox like this.

Sam Fuld – 1-for-3, 3 steals.  To paraphrase Kanye, “Let’s have a toast for those that steal three bags…”

B.J. Upton – 2-for-4, hitting .364 on the year.  Not sure what it is, maybe he was getting cold there in Longoria’s shadow, but Upton is about the only Ray currently hitting.  (Yeah, I went from Kanye to Bette Midler in the matter of two blurbs.  You’re welcome.)

Esmil Rogers – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Member when Rockie pitchers were unownable?  That was sooooo 2009!  Rogers works with a mid-90′s fastball, slider, changeup– Wait, who am, Stephen?  Rogers should have a mid to high 7 K-rate and be in the rotation for at least a month.  If he impresses, the Rockies will leave him in the rotation.  In deep mixed leagues and NL-Only leagues, I’d grab him to see if you can ride the lightning in a bottle or whatever that cliche is.

Jon Niese – 4 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks.  His leash shouldn’t be crazy long, but this was a tough match-up.  You gotta give him a little more slack.

Wilson Valdez – 4-for-4, 3 Runs, 3 RBIs.  It’s always interesting to see how players react to the threat of everyday violence from their fan base.  So far Valdez has done okay in Citizens Flank, but I imagine that will end shortly.

John Axford – Everyone’s favorite closer to lose their job in the first week of the season now has back-to-back saves.

Shaun Marcum – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Not quite as dominant as I want to see him every time out *cough* like Edwin Jackson *cough* but this was a step in the right direction.  BTW, am I the only one who thinks it’s hilarious that the Brewers are playing Nyjer and Gomez at the same time?  Opposing teams just need to shine a flashlight onto a wall to get them to run off base.

Ian Desmond – Led off and went 2-for-5 with 2 steals.  Now 6 for his last 10.  Yeah, you probably shouldn’t have dropped him after three bad games.

Sam LeClure – 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Doesn’t it seem like terrible pitchers do well on short schedule days?  Yeah, so that got me thinking… As many of you are aware, my IQ falls somewhere between brilliant and brilliantly stupid.  The technical term is “Hit or Miss.”  I wasn’t sure if this one theory I had was hit or miss, so I contacted frequent commenter, Simply Fred, like I was Tom Cruise contacting Ving Rhames to crack a safe.  I told him my theory — Hitters do worse on travel days (Monday and Thursday).  Simply Fred then went and did the ERAs for each day of the week. Turned out this theory was a miss.  There’s no correlation.

Scott Rolen – 1-for-1 with his 2nd homer.  Last year, 17 homers pre-All-Star break.  3 homers afterwards.

Alex Avila – Hit his 2nd homer in two games.  Now let the comments commence (say that fast 117 times!) about whether you should pick up Avila.

A.J. Burnett – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  If you ask me in the comments if you should start Burnett, I’m probably going to say no because I wouldn’t own him.  Or I’m going to say yes if you own him.

Adam Moore – Torn meniscus.  Simultaneously, the Appendix, Intercostal and Oblique scream, “Get in line!”

Adam Jones – 2-for-3, 3 RBIs, HR and a steal for the always delicious slam & legs.  Yesterday, I couldn’t believe I was getting questions asking about dropping Jones or picking up a dropped Jones.  Really?  After 5 games?

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I hope this is because he had a short Spring Training.  I really hope so.  Do I think it is?  Yes, but I’m answering with my fingers crossed.

Nishioka Tsuyoshi – Fractured fibula.  No lie.

Luke Hughes – We have a new Aussie major leaguer.  Let’s hope he didn’t share a bed with this koala.  (Sorry, Snookie, that koala makes STDs look cute.)  Hughes hasn’t shown much power in the minors… or speed… or average, but he did hit well in Spring Training (6 homers).  I grabbed him in one league where I lost Nishioka.  As of right now, I would grab him in AL-Only leagues.  The inherent problem with Hughes is the Twins might just play Matt Tolbert.  And that’s The Tolbert Report.

Minor League Review, Rockies

December 16, 2009 By: Stephen Category: Fantasy Baseball Prospects 8 Comments →

Colorado Rockies 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (20) | 2008 (7) | 2007 (2) | 2006 (11) | 2005 (6) | 2004 (15)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [92 – 72] NL West – third best record in NL
AAA: [73 – 69] Pacific Coast League
AA: [74 – 66] Texas League
A+: [ 75 – 65] California League
A: [68 – 70] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [47 – 29] Northwest League
R: [28 – 46] Pioneer League

The Run Down
The Rockies have done an excellent job of developing and receiving value from their farm system.  Their starting roster is littered with internal prospects. From Tulowitzki to Helton to, Grey’s obsession, Ian Stewart to Seth Smith to Dexter Fowler to Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez.  This year was their worst in at least five seasons for prospects. However, they still maximized value once again. Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith proved that they deserved to be in the Big Show. 2010 has some potential to produce a few highlights. Look for Eric Young Jr., Jhoulys Chacin and possibly Esmil Rogers to assist the Rockies in their chase for another playoff push.

Graduating Prospects
#1 – OF – Dexter Fowler; #8 – OF – Seth Smith; P- Matt Daley

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions
Pitchers – Craig Baker, Andrew Johnson, Matt Reynolds, Chaz Roe
Hitters – (C) Wilin Rosario, (SS) Hector Gomez, (3B) Darin Holcomb

Players of Interest
Hitters
#18 – Eric Young Jr.| 2B | AAA | 24 | .299/.387/.430 | 472 AB | 21 2B | 10 3B | 7 HR | .131 ISO | 58/14 SB/CS | 79:56 K:BB | .347 BABIP | 60.9 GB% | 15.2 LD% | 22.9 FB%
The son of former major leaguer, Eric Young; and Junior can flat out run. He has stolen 303 bases in 393 attempts (568 career games), albeit, that means he has been thrown out nearly 23% of the time. He runs like a gazelle, but fields like Dan Uggla. The Rockies have tried him out in center field (only played 11 games there this year), but he’ll probably stay at second. His ground-ball rate (60.9%) this year isn’t far off from his career average (57%), thus, his BABIP is going to be naturally higher. Plus, it allows him to utilize that blazing speed. Additionally, Young may push Clint Barmes for the starting second basemen in 2010. If he doesn’t win the job out of spring training, look for a June 1st call-up. Especially if you want some cheap steals (praise SAGNOF call-ups).

#9 – Michael McKenry | C | AA | 24 | .279/.376/.455 | 358 AB | 25 2B | 12 HR | .176 ISO | 69:54 K:BB | .318 BABIP | 38.4 GB% | 22.3 LD% | 39 FB%
The Rockies second rated catcher in 2009, probably moved ahead of Wilin Rosario for ’10. With a strong arm and quick release, McKenry plays solid defense and calls a good game. His offense just started to come around in 2008 and this year he proved it wasn’t a fluke, hitting outside the friendly confines of the California League bandboxes. His line drive rate (22.3) was impressive, showing that he was hitting the ball hard, and often. He projects as a back up, but may deserve regular time if he continues to hit at Triple-A in 2010.

Pitchers
#2 – Jhoulys Chacin | RHP | AA/AAA | 21 | 7.4 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 117 2/3 IP | 3.21 ERA | @AA 4.01 FIP; @AAA 6.20 FIP | 1.24 WHIP | .267 BABIP | 54.6 GB% | 15.1 LD% | 25.2 FB% | .9 HR/9 | [career rates:59.2 GB% | 13.6 LD% | 23.5 FB% in 404 2/3 IP]
Chacin induces ground balls at mind boggling rates. His career ground ball rate (59.2) are similar to Tim Hudson (58.6%), teammate Aaron Cook (57.5%) and Chien-Ming Wang (60.1%). Even if he lost 5 to 7% of that rate in the majors, he would have similar rates as Greg Maddux (51.5%), Chris Carpenter (52.8%), and Mariano Rivera (54.2%). He did receive a call-up in September, but didn’t fare extraordinarily well. He possesses a mid-90′s fastball with tons of heavy sinking action, a stellar change-up and a so-so curve. Considered to be a middle of the rotation starter, Chacin looks eerily similar to Aaron Cook, but with a few more strikeouts. However boring in fantasy terms, the ground balls should favor him at Coors.

#3 – Christian Friedrich | LHP | A/A+ | 21 | 12 K/9 | 3.2 BB/9 | 119 2/3 IP | 2.41 ERA | @A 1.92 FIP; @A+ 2.55 FIP | 1.15 WHIP | .329 BABIP | 45.1 B% | 13.3 LD% | 35.2 FB%
Possessing a low-90′s fastball, a 12-to-6 curve, a sharp slider, and a change-up in the works, Friedrich (von Lichtenstein) is considered the Rockies top lefty prospect. In his first full year in the minors, he pitched well at both levels of play. Baseball America believes that he could bull-rush through the minors much like Jeff Francis did a few years back. He should start in Double-A and rise to Triple-A by the end of the season. von Lichtenstein isn’t part of his name. Just a fun reference to a movie, can anyone guess which one?

#7 – Esmil Rogers | RHP | AA/AAA | 23 | 7.5 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 155 IP | 4.41 ERA | @AA 2.41 FIP | @AAA 5.49 FIP | 1.41 WHIP | .331 BABIP | 45.2 GB% | 18 LD% | 32.4 FB% | .6 HR/9
A former shortstop, Rogers has developed quite rapidly since his conversion. With a low to mid-90′s fastball, an average curve, and a spotty change-up, he could make the team out of spring training. Chacin and him should be battling for the same starting spot. Other than the ground ball rates and WHIP, Rogers posted better numbers than Chacin did with a higher BABIP – more innings, lower walk rate, higher strikeout rate. If Rogers wins the battle, I’d wait until his first couple of starts to jump on his bandwagon.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#20 – Darin Holcomb | 3B | AA | 23 | .271/.348/.411 | 479 AB | 26 2B | 13 HR | .140 ISO | 50:54 K:BB | .281 BABIP | 45 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 38.2 FB%
Not overly impressive, but serviceable. He has 15 to 20 homer potential in the majors, even with Coors as his home field. One plus is that he possesses great recognition of the strike zone. Another plus, instead of hitting tons of homers, he hits a lot of balls into the gap. Think 2009 David Wright without the speed. He has a career 140:150 K:BB ratio in 1265 AB. With Ian Stewart looking like he could hold done the hot corner, Holcomb’s future may be as a role player.

#10 – Charles Blackman | CF | A+ | 22 | .307/.370/.433 | 550 AB | 34 2B | 7 3B | 7 HR | .126 ISO | 30/13 SB/CS | 83:37 K:BB | .352 BABIP | 50.8 GB% | 18 LD% | 31.1 FB%
He is the prototypical, drool inducing prospect. He has all “five-tools” and he’s playing like he is going to mature into an amazing player. Charles, or Charlie, has a strong arm, plus-plus speed, a “picture perfect” left hand swing with line drive power, according to Baseball America. Well, he will have to produce at Double-A next year before the Rockies need to make a decision about where he is going to play with Seth Smith, Fowler, Spilborghs, Hawpe and Carlos Gonzalez already vying for playing time.

Matt Miller | RF | AAA | 26 | .319/.380/.476 | 528 AB | 39 2B | 8 3B | 9 HR | .157 ISO | 78:51 K:BB | .362 BABIP | 50.8 GB% | 18.6 LD% | 30.6 FB%
There is nothing exciting about Miller. I mention him because in case of mass injuries to the Rockies outfield, Miller may be the first player called up. He has played a year and a half at Triple-A and is quite underwhelming. He hits for decent average, albeit inflated by a high BABIP, has decent plate-discipline and average skills. However, he could play adequately for a short period.

Pitchers
Ramoncito Garcia | RHP | A | 20 | 9.2 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 112 IP | 2.41 ERA | 1.19 WHIP
I couldn’t find him anywhere else besides Baseball-Reference.com, however, as a 20 year old, those are great numbers. He’ll pitch at High-A and, if those numbers continue, plausibly Double-A by midseason. Keep an eye on this youngster.