Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jason Heyward sat again yesterday in favor of Jose Constanza.  I don’t want to shout fire in the theater of Razzball, but this isn’t good.  Constanza is making Heyward look like the best seller at the jerk store.  Actually, Heyward was kinda doing it to himself.  This year he has 12 homers and a .222 average.  Laynce Nix called and said he’s doing better.  I think Heyward’s still dealing with shoulder issues and “You got on the wrong side of Glass Chipper” issues.  Heyward can still be a star as soon as next year, but, for this year in redraft leagues, you need to start thinking like Big Boi and back up the back up plans.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Huston Street – Street’s closed, Rockies used alternative route to save the game with Rafael Betancourt.  Street’s soreness isn’t said to be serious enough for a DL stint, but Street’s been known to laugh in the face of ‘not serious enough for a DL stint.’  Since Lindstrom is out too, I’d grab Betancourt for potential vulturing.  If you need a dinette set, go with Rex Brothers.

Angel Pagan – Now has back-to-back games with a homer as he hits leadoff in Reyes’s stead.  Dan Brown’s newest book, Angel & Pagans, tracking Mr. Met to the Vatican may start to gain some believers.

Kyle Blanks – 2-for-4 yesterday and has two hits in each of the last five games, including two homers.  That all coincides with the Padres being on the road.  Hey, Ray Kroc Jr. Jr., when a 375 lbs. power hitter is intimidated by your home park, it’s time to move in the fences.

Jesus Guzman – 2-for-4 as Jesus continues to do everything but walk on water.  Though it’s only Wednesday.

Orlando Hudson – Left the game with a strained left groin.  Hehe, he has two groins.

J.D. Martinez – Hit his 4th homer in his last six games.  Legally I’m required to tell you I don’t think he’ll keep it up, but now it’s time to give J.D. his trial run.

Adam Dunn – Says he will alter his offseason training for next year.  This obviously means he’ll limit his axe swinging, so rejoice tree huggers!

Justin Morneau – Should return next Monday, which will forever be known as Mornday.

Carlos Beltran – Out a few days with a sprained wrist.  If he had a strained groin with his sprained wrist, I wouldn’t shake his hand.

Madison Bumgarner – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks, moving his record to 7-11.  Oh, thank heaven!

Dee Gordon – Left yesterday’s game with a sore right shoulder.  Here’s hoping his middle initial isn’t L.

Justin Smoak – Out with a jammed thumb.  He’s hitting .179 since the All-Star break.  Smoak’s cooking with liquid nitrogen!

Michael Pineda – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks as he faced Alexi Ogando (2 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners) which was billed by ESPN as The Battle of the Tiring Young Pitcher.  Mark Prior threw out the first pitch.  Well, he rolled the ball to the plate and then shrugged.

Endy Chavez – Hit his 5th homer yesterday or the same amount as Aaron Hill, who has turned my middle infield spot into a Dead Endy.

James Shields – 9 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Since his Oakland A’s start of 4 IP, 10 ER, he seems to have eaten a few power-up pellets and regained his Shields power.

Desmond Jennings – 1-for-3 with his 8th steal.  That’s in 17 games.  Conservatively, I’ll say he’s stealing two hundred next year.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka - 1-for-3, hitting .216.  He looks like Kaz Matsui 2.0.

Francisco Liriano – 6 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners (7 BBs), 4 Ks.  For those who can’t pick up on the context clues, 7 walks in 6 innings is not good.  Some would say it’s bad.  Johnny Cochran would’ve said it’s egregious.

Hanley Ramirez- Has been out since August 2nd as he nurses his shoulder.  He has a nipple on his shoulder?! Five dollars of imaginary money says Hanley will be DL’d in the next day or so.  As Jack McKeon said, “He wants to play, but if it bothers him and he can’t reach for the ball, what good is it?  Can I leave now?  You’re making me miss the early bird.”

John Buck – Has two straight games with a homer.  Or to misquote M.I.A., Bucky Gone Gone.

Brandon Beachy – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Constantly amazed at how many people started asking if they should drop Beachy after his bad game in Coors and haven’t stopped asking.  He’s been that bad?  Not rhetorical!

Dan Uggla – His hitting streak is up to 30 games.  In other news, water is dry.

Zack Cozart – Sounds like he’s headed for season-ending surgery.  Dr. James Andrews, “Not ’til I say so.  Muahahahahaha…”

Dontrelle Willis – 8 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Well, hello there!  Wow.  Where you been hidin’, Willis?  I wouldn’t add him in all leagues, but in some deeper ones or where you need to gamble, I’d look at him.

Esmil Rogers – 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks and his third decent start in a row. Rogers works with a mid-90′s fastball, slider, changeup– Wait, who am, Stephen?  Rogers should have a mid to high 7 K-rate and be in the rotation for the rest of the season as long as he doesn’t Mr. Bungle things.  Esmil, “Holy chicken mole, this is enormous pressure!”  In deep mixed leagues and NL-Only leagues, I’d grab Rogers to see if you can ride the lightning in a bottle or whatever that cliche is.

Josh Willingham – Hit his 2nd homer in as many games.  Willingham, that’s just not kosher.  Hasn’t cooled off since I labeled him a Buy on Friday.

Rich Harden – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Has more Ks than innings and finally looked impressive, like the old Harden.  Well, actually, the old Harden would’ve thrown out his back after a teammate high-fived him.

Bobby Abreu – 2-for-5 with two homers.  Abreu has been a good August hitter in the past, but his past goes back.  For instance, you might hear him say things like, “I remember when baseball’s weren’t hit with bats but with steroids.”

Eduardo Nunez – 2-for-3 with his 17th and 18th steals to go along with his 4 homers.  A-Rod has 13 homers and 4 steals.  So Nunez is definitely no flop, but A-Rod’s hole cards of 52 RBIs and 53 runs are obviously better.

Chien-Ming Wang – 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners (1 Hit), 1 K.  He’s trying to get you to fall for the old-banana-in-the-tailpipe.  Don’t do it.

Corey Hart – Returned to the lineup (hand) and picked up right where he left off (homer) and hopes to continue (wearing sunglasses at night).

Kyle Gibson – Partial tear of his right elbow.  All those years his dad made him emulate his World Series trot couldn’t have helped.

This will be my first week playing fantasy baseball without my hero, Hightower from Police Academy. God speed, big man. So the deadline came and went. Pretty unexciting stuff from a fantasy prospective. The fake baseball trade deadline is approaching by week’s end, time to analyze that roster of yours and ask “Can I make a run and if so where and with what guys?” It’s also important to think of next year for keeper leagues, take a chance on a guy who someone may value less for next year than you may. Gambles in fantasy are what pay the bills, folks. So good luck on getting your roster ready for playoff battle. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/10
Erik Bedard @ Min – Blackburn
Mark Buehrle @ Bal – Hunter
Mike Leake vs. Col – Nicasio

8/11
Cory Luebke @ NYM – Niese
Joe Saunders vs. Hou – Myers
Jeff Niemann vs. KC – Duffy

8/12
Dillon Gee @ Ari – Kennedy
Chris Narveson vs. Pit – Maholm
Brandon McCarthy vs. Tex – Wilson

Jason Marquis (Hou vs. Lyles, NYM vs. Capuano) First impressions are everything, 7 ER against the team you’re trying to catch. I do like him slightly better in Arizona, weaker hitting division, better ROS schedule.

Brett Cecil (Oak vs. Harden , Ana vs. Haren) Since his return from Disgraceful List, 3-3, 3.38 ERA and 41 K’s in 8 starts. Shows glimpses of fantasy goodness, is a next year fave for me (I said that preseason this year also) even if it’s through rose-colored glasses.

Doug Fister (@Cle vs. Masterson, @Bal vs. Britton) Should be owned! I can sit here and throw numbers at you, but I don’t want to hold your hand. Holding hands is weird for strangers. Fister is the centerfold for Sabermetric Monthly for August.

Philip Humber (@Bal vs. Britton, KC vs. Francis) Ever wonder what it really feels like to hit the fantasy wall? Well, Phil is waiting to take your calls. May get you wins this week but at the expense of 5+ ERA.

Charlie Morton (@SF vs. Vogelsong, @Mil vs. Marcum) The Pirates’ ship is sinking.  Man the life rafts!  Is a WHIP disaster and, like his team, seems to be running on fumes. Is the Hydrox to Doc’s Oreo.

Esmil Rogers (@Cin vs. Willis, @Stl vs. Jackson) Needs to build some quality innings, but potential for a back end starter could be there. Any youngin’ needs to work on control so be leery of the WHIP abuse. Remember that love Nicasio got for like a day.  Yeah, they may be fantasy clones.

Chris Capuano (SD vs. LeBlanc, @Ari vs. Marquis) ERA is a little high for everyday use, but I like this guy. He has grit or moxy or groxy. Hey, Dr. Seuss made a living making up words. Though drugs were a lot stronger back then.

Homer Bailey (Col vs. Hammel, SD vs. Stauffer) Some people like him, others come to his defense in the comments. See start on 7/28/11. Any questions? If you could ever just be whelmed, Homer would take you there.

Mike Pelfrey (SD vs. Stauffer, @Ari vs. Hudson) You ever get in a groove while listening to Pandora? Then all of a sudden they sneak a Brian Adams song in there. Well Pelfrey to me is that song.  Skip and then listen to an ad from Pauly D.

Dontrelle Willis (Col vs. Rogers, SD vs. LeBlanc) I wish fun was a fantasy category, D-Train would go first overall. Will never really be a fantasy asset, which makes me sad. Dispelling all rumors that I was the Gooch.

Another week has come and gone my friends, well, I’m assuming we are friends. Hopefully fake baseball is still enjoyable to you, even if your team is in the crapper. It’s not too late, in fact it’s still way early. Trust in the pitcher is the biggest thing that makes a start a must start. Listen, I can’t put it to you any simpler than this. Pitchers are held to a different standard than hitters. They can get a hitter out 7 times out of 10 and they look terrible. But if they get them out 8 out of 10, we salute them, throw a parade and erect sandcastles in there honor. It’s a fine line between being great and being crappy. I have said this before and I still use it for “entertainment value” when determining if I am going to start a guy on a certain day. Go to your trusty odds maker, whether it be the newspaper, website or Uncle Geno. The people who have the most to lose on this know what they’re doing. That’s why there are no casinos named after charitable organizations. So, in times of despair, don’t fret, you are surrounded by information that will guide you in the right direction. Unfortunately, when the pitcher sucks and should have been great, there is nothing we can do but take it on the chin. Enjoy another week of fantasy double dipping and streaming. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups may change.)

ONE START OPTIONS

5/3
Sam Lecure vs. Hou – Figueroa
5/4
Clayton Richard vs. Pit – Correia
Jake Arrieta @ KC – Davies
Fausto Carmona @ Oak – Cahill
5/5
Bruce Chen vs. Bal – Tillman
Joel Pineiro @ Bos – Lackey
5/6
Ian Kennedy @ SD – Stauffer
Philip Humber @ Sea – Fister
Jason Hammel @ SF – Cain
5/7
Charlie Morton vs. Hou – Norris
Jon Garland @ NYM – Young

TWO START OPTIONS

Josh Tomlin (@Oak vs. Ross, @Ana vs. Haren) Finally getting use out of that magic trick game he got as a kid. BAA is tiny .186, there is always a but though, a low K/9 and is second in LOB%. I believe Napoleon Dynamite said it best, “Lucky.”

Brandon McCarthy (Tex vs. Holland, @KC vs. Hochevar) Already a 1 WAR pitcher, there are only 15 in all of baseball. Numbers are saying that he should be even better than he has already shown. Best showing for a McCarthy since Weekend at Bernie’s.

Mike Leake (Hou vs. Happ, @CHC vs. Russell) Five-fingered Mike. Cueto’s return is coming most likely in the Cubs series. Homer not too long after. Tough decisions for Dusty. I rank ‘em Wood, Leake and then Bailey, until he proves he can’t get hurt walking and chewing gum at same time.

Erik Bedard (Tex vs. Ogando, CHW vs. Buehrle) I’m not a buyer here. Some K potential but injuries and Seattle’s offensive woes make me wonder when the last time an Erik actually did something good, not so fast there Poncherello.

Chris Volstad (@StL vs. Lohse, Was vs. Gorzellany) Don’t know why I like him, maybe it’s the height thing. Gets me easily confused with Josh. Medium K potential, but based on match-ups this week me likey a little extra.

Tyson Ross (Cle vs. Tomlin, @KC vs. Francis) A’s pitchers are hot commodities this week. Decent numbers in minors for K’s. Control will be a problem. Just getting stretched out, 2-3 more starts will put him in the “Why didn’t I add him before he took off?” category.

Livan Hernandez (Phi vs. Oswalt, @Fla vs. Sanchez) The epitome of fishing for wins. Offers zero K’s but keeps trucking along giving you 6 innings of 3 run ball. About as cool for fantasy rosters as Jorts.

Esmil Rogers (@Ari vs. Saunders, @SF vs. Vogelsong) Looked up his family bio and has a brother named Egrimac. Walks make me unhappy, looking to avenge only bad start of the season against SF. Compare his numbers to Ubaldo, yeah, he isn’t that bad now.

Jeremy Guthrie (@CHW vs. Buehrle, TB vs. Shields) Hard luck guy, Dustin Moseley even feels bad. Take away the start vs. Cle and he has allowed 3 runs in 27 innings. Always liked Stanford alums, maybe it’s because of the LSJUMB.

Wade Davis (Tor vs. Reyes, @Bal vs. Bergesen) Poor K/BB ratio, still sporting an ERA in the high 2’s. Seems to be pitching better than ancillary numbers would suggest. Is still way under owned and looked at, first it was Hellickson and his boyish charm and now it’s Shields who likes to do everything by himself.

We’re going streaming! No? Okay, it’s just me then. As I was doing the research for this week, two things happened. One, I threw up at the possibility of adding any of these lower end guys. Secondly, I kept thinking that maybe I am losing touch with the fantasy world. Has one week really shifted to a baseball tangent of have-nots having relevant value. I’m befuddled at the lack of value for this week’s streaming party. With all the lower end pitching that is out there we get 2 start games from possibly the worst 4 teams in baseball (with their respective options for fantasy goodies). I am upset and demand a pamphlet or at least a seminar on how this happened. This week may be a decent week for you to string along 2 or 3 separate one start pitchers instead. I have included a small list of them as well for your viewing enjoyment. So as you read this, approach with caution and just be confident of the fact that better times are coming for two start pitchers. Good luck. (Please be aware that pitchers and match ups change)

One Start options:
Phil Coke – @Sea vs. Fister 4/19
Esmil Rogers – SF vs. Sanchez4/19
R.A. Dickey – Hou vs. Norris 4/20
Jon Garland – Atl vs. Lowe 4/20
Charlie Morton – @Fla vs. Nolasco 4/20
Josh Tomlin – @KC vs. O’Sullivan 4/21
Kyle Lohse – Was vs. Gorzellany 4/21
Derek Holland – KC vs. Francis 4/22
Clayton Richard – Phi vs. Blanton 4/22

Kevin Correia (@Cin-Wood, Was- Hernandez) – Looked good for 5 innings in last start, unfortunately it isn‘t tee-ball. Lack of K’s is unappealing. Staff aces on mediocre teams get no love.

Jake Westbrook (Was-Lannan, Cin-Lecure) – By name he looks awesome this week. By performance, one would think Duncan hates his guts. Let’s be honest he is a lunch pail ground ball pitcher — no more, no less.

Sam LeCure (Ari-Galarraga, @STL-Westbrook) – 2nd start may be in question with DL returnees Bailey and Cueto. Does a really great Robert Smith impression for his Quebec-based cover band. Seems destined to be in and out of rotation all year.

John Lannan (@STL-Westbrook, @Pit-Maholm) – Decent career numbers against the ‘Lou. Better match-ups this week than the last 2, Nats need to start hitting, starting to be referenced with the Mariners.

Brandon Beachy (@LA-Kuroda, @SF-Lincecum) – Ugh and yuck. Doesn’t seem to be getting any easier for the sleeper. 2 rough road starts.

Jason Vargas (Det-Scherzer, Oak-Anderson) – One bad start in between 2 decent. Can’t trust a team that doesn’t score, plain and simple.

Dustin Moseley (@CHC-TBD, Phi-Lee) – Only given up 4 ER all year in 3 decent starts. Hodgepadre indeed.

Bruce Chen (Cle-Carrasco, @Tex-Holland) – Last 10 starts dating back to last year, 7-1 with a 3.45 ERA. I can’t make stuff up like that.

Fausto Carmona (@KC-Davies, @Min-Liriano) – Unreliable, best word I can think of. Based on match-ups though it makes sense. Minny has 3, count them 3 HR’s all year. The Indians are getting it done though, don’t have the talent to sustain but will be a headache for awhile.

Jonathon Niese (Hou-Rodriquez, Ari-Galarraga) – Last 2 starts not so hot, next 2 pale in comparison by offensive measures. Two starts at Metco, a resounding… maybe. The Wandwagon has lost its wheels and is now a sled and ‘Almost Perfect’ has been anything but.

Holy hell was week 1 long… though it’s always good when your ace goes three times in the first week. Hopefully, everyone has remained calm and not added Alex Avila and Willie Bloomquist to anchor anything not named a boat. It’s way too early to get all ‘Jerry McGuire’ and say, “The fish are coming with me.” This fantasy is a relationship — not a one night stand! Assuming that you drafted well and injuries or appendices don’t get in your way, your team should be built to last. To me, there is nothing sweeter than streaming. It makes your opponent think two things, “Hey, this guy is paying attention” and, “Damn, this guy wants to not only beat me but destroy me.” That is what it’s all about folks. Treat every week like you do the last week of the season and I guarantee those last few weeks will actually mean something. So here are your week 2, less owned, two start fantasy baseball hurlers. Good luck. (Pitchers and match ups may change so please be aware)

Kyle McClellan (@Ari-Enright, @LAD Kershaw) – Duncan is the Rumpelstiltskin of pitching. For now, I’m sold and will be until he hits that wall at 120 innings or so.

Joe Blanton (@Was- Lannan, Fla-Volstad) – Mentally it must suck to be known as the other guy.  No respect? No worries!  Thornton Melon’s got your back… Just stop giving up 7 run leads.

Michael Pineda (Tor-Romero, @KC Francis) – Good stuff, bad offense. Any start for a Seattle pitcher will be a crap shoot for a Win. They just don’t have the ‘O’ to go anywhere but last place.

Jason Hammel (@NYM-Pelfrey, CHC-Coleman) – Colorado’s offense versus a chronic hand licker and a guy who sounds like an female Irish bar keep? Yeah, it depends on the bar.

Brian Duensing (KC-Francis, @TB-Price) – Still SP/RP sexy. Rays are scuffling and Price isn’t as good as some ‘perts are sayin’. None here, of course.

Alexei Ogando (@Det-Verlander, @NYY-Burnett) – Rough match up week for the kid. Wait is 27 years old still a kid? Anyhoo, career high in innings is 41, which includes the minors.

Jesse Litsch (@Sea-Hernandez, @Bos-Matsuzaka) – Tough week for the road warrior pick. I went over Seattle above in a nut shell. Boston is the kid who falls asleep drunk and everyone draws on his face. Until he wakes up and kicks everyone’s ass.

Esmil Rogers (@ NYM- Niese, CHC- Dempster) – Gangly is the best word for him. Looks like an 8 foot octopus wearing a baseball hat. Deceptive delivery, plus lack of video equals fantasy gold until they figure him out.

Kevin Correia (Mil-Marcum, @Cin-Volquez) – Olympics, Kim Jong-il land the pitcher.  The three things we know about Korea.  Somewhere, James Taiwan is yearning for attention. Hard to be the ace of a bad team, usually a match up disaster.

Jeff Francis (@Min-Duensing, Sea -Pineda) – Rule of 2’s for shoulder surgery guys.  Hop on the KC bandwagon now… it’ll prolly run out of gas by June.