Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  For those of you who spent most of college like me here’s the Cliff Notes version of the starters.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2010 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80’s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.

During our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone over so many flippin’ players I’ve lost track.  This is, I believe, the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, but you’re best to check the title to be sure.   If it is indeed the top 60 starters, then you’re in luck.  Only a few more top 20 rankings posts.  What is it, February?  March?  Why don’t I have an app for this?  Or do I want a hashtag?  App ‘n Hashtag would be a good name for a 50s style diner with wifi.  As with the other rankings posts, tiers and my projections are mentioned.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

41. Clay Buchholz – This is a continuation of the last tier on the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  This tier ends at Strasburg.  I call this tier, “Fliers that I’m willing to give a chance.”  Some might be confused by Cueto ranking before Buchholz, so let’s compare those two.  As linguists intended it, we’ll go B before C.  In 2009, K/9 — 6.65 vs. 6.93, BB/9 — 3.52 vs. 3.20, 25 years old vs. 23 years old, 190 2/3 career MLB innings vs. 345 1/3 IP.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.34/155

42. Ervin Santana – Ervin’s 2009 was similar to Scott Baker’s.  He came out of spring training with an arm injury, but, unlike Baker and Stella, Ervin never found his groove.  This late in drafts I’m willing to overlook Ervin’s Gorilla Ponson impersonation last year.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.75/1.28/185

43. Neftali Feliz – Already went over my Neftali fantasy.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.30/1.26/120 in 20 starts.

44. Jorge de la Rosa – His appearance in this tier is solely because of his Ks.  Don’t believe me?  Throw your computer out the window, there’s no talking to you.  And to think we were friends.  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.15/1.34/200

45. Brett Anderson – Brett Anderson, the future ace, is not without caveats in 2010.  Innings jump was big in 2009.  The reason why I’m willing to take a late flier on him instead of, say, Hanson is because Anderson will come much cheaper in drafts.  Second caveat, Anderson really only had two months where he looked like an ace.  Though those two months were in the 2nd half.  If Hughes is in the rotation, I would switch these two.  So, I would take a shot on Anderson late, but I’d also be aware of the risk.  2010 Projections:  10-11/3.70/1.27/165

46. Phil Hughes – Won’t know until spring training, but my guess is it will be Joba in the rotation and Phil Hughes as a top 20 middle reliever.  Even if Hughes gets the starting spot, I could see him being limited on a strict innings count.  2010 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.22/130 in 130 innings.

47. Joba Chamberlain – About time the Yankees take the ignition lock breathalyzer off the steering wheel and let Joba take his arm out for a drive.  Or put him in middle relief.  As of post time, it’s not clear yet.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.85/1.34/160

48. Stephen Strasburg – Already went over my Strasburg fantasy.  The reason why I have him after Feliz is because of the kid gloves the Nats are going to be using with him.  The reason why I have him above some known commodities is because if he somehow breaks camp with the Nats, you’ve won the draft lottery.  Right after the announcement, you’d be able to trade Strasburg for a tidy haul.  Say, Billy Butler.  Now twirl your mustache!  2010 Projections:  6-8/3.65/1.27/110

49. Edwin Jackson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Romero.  I call this tier, “Guys that I’m not drafting, but might pick up on waivers during the season if the opportunity presents itself and it probably will.”  When Edwin Jackson was traded, I said I might own him in the right circumstances.  I’m officially retracting that.  On closer inspection, I don’t want anything to do with him outside of matchups.  I was clouded by the thought of facing the Giants and Padres, but he was far too lucky last year.  I don’t think Edwin will be quite the 2nd half pitcher he was last year — 5.07 ERA — but I think that’s closer than the pitcher he was in the first half — 2.52 ERA.  Wouldn’t be shocked to see him have completely ownable stretches, but overall meh.  2010 Projections:  10-12/4.15/1.36/140

50. Joe Blanton – I owned Blanton for a good stretch last year.  Looking at my active stats, in 81 2/3 innings, Blanton gave me 6 wins, 3.31/1.18/59.  Awesome, terrific, adjective, but Blanton’s a pitcher you get off waivers.  You don’t draft Joe Blanton.  2010 Projections:  14-12/4.25/1.32/140

50 1/2. Jair Jurrjens – UPDATE:  Meesa tinks Jar-Jar having an MRI in the preseason is reason enough to ignore him.  Then throw in potential regression and it’s not worth the ulcer.  2010 Projections:  10-9/4.35/1.22/110 in 160 innings

51. Scott Kazmir – The Angels are planning on Kazmir filling in Lackey’s spot in the rotation.  Injury risk — check!  Falling K-rate — check!  Overrated for fantasy — we have a winner for the crapfecta!  2010 Projections:  14-9/4.30/1.38/145

52. Derek Lowe – The days of being able to own Lowe from start to finish look to be over.  He’ll have matchups appeal here and there, but you don’t want to draft him.  2010 Projections:  12-11/4.15/1.35/100

53. J.A. Happ – Meh K-rate, high walk rate, bad home park, lucky BABIP, insane amount of men left on base… Mr. Caps Lock says, “HAPP WAS THE LUCKIEST PITCHER IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES LAST YEAR.”  At some point it will Happen.  You don’t want to be there when it does.  2010 Projections:  12-10/4.35/1.32/155

54. Rick Porcello – A below 5 K-rate and a 45 inning bump from ‘08 secures his place in the Do Not Touch tier.  2010 Projections:  9-12/4.15/1.32/75

55. Daisuke Matsuzaka – I gave up on Dice-K after his unbelievable 2008.  And by unbelievable I mean improbable, not superb.  2010 Projections:  10-7/4.50/1.38/150

56. Joel Pineiro – I’d recommend you hire Gary Glitter as a babysitter before advising you to draft Pineiro.  2010 Projections:  11-10/4.15/1.34/90

57. Randy Wolf – One the hardest things about doing these rankings is going over guys that treated you so well last year then having to write about how you don’t want any part of them in the new season.  When Wolf was traded, I said, “In 2009, Miller Park played as a pitcher’s park, but it’s more neutral than that. It’s no Coors, but it’s also no Metco.  Either way, Wolf was fortunate to have a 3.23 ERA last year and probably shouldn’t be counted on for anything below a 3.90.  Ownable, just not terrific.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  14-12/4.05/1.20/155

58. Ricky Romero – To be totally honest, I almost put Romero in a tier with guys I would draft, but in the end, he’s not especially dominant, he’s in a tough division and he’s injury prone.  In an AL-Only league, I’d draft him, but in mixed leagues, I’d stay away.  2010 Projections:  9-13/4.50/1.48/155

59. Tim Hudson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Correia.  I call this tier, “Boring, but ownable.”  On one hand, Hudson’s a reliable vet with a mid-3 career ERA, while a little light on Ks.  On the other hand, Hudson is returning from Tommy John surgery.  That brings with it risk similar to playing with your iPasties app near Carl Monday.  Face it, there’s really no sure² thing this late.  2010 Projections:   13-5/3.55/1.32/145

60. Kevin Correia – The first HodgePadre to make the starter rankings.  This goes without saying but it’s not going to be a fun year to watch the Padres.  Depressing, actually.  They should broadcast every game with Warren Zevon’s Keep Me In Your Heart playing in the background.  2010 Projections:  10-12/3.65/1.28/135

Yesterday, Andy LaRoche made a last ditch effort for some of his parents’ love.  He went 5-for-5, with 2 homers, 4 Runs and 6 RBIs.  He had his best month of the season in September and he’ll still be 26 next year.  I might actually own Pirate players next year.  Weird!  BTW, the Pirates were playing in their final home game of the year in what has been a miserable decade season.  With this last opportunity for the Pirates to give their fans something to cheer about, the 3rd base coach put the brakes on LaRoche as he rounded 2nd heading to third on a long double.  Who cares right?  LaRoche needed a triple for the cycle!  Wait, it gets better.  Zach Duke is cruising for the entire game.  Runs into slight trouble in the 9th inning, but the Pirates have an 11-1 lead.  So what does the manager do with two outs, the never fear-inducing Blake DeWitt at-bat and Duke dealing with a very reasonable 103 pitch count?  He lifts Duke rather than let him get the complete game.  The Pirates deserve contraction.  /rant  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hiroki Kuroda – 4 IP, 10 baserunners, 3 ER and 7 runs total.  As he provided a Ticker Shock.

Garrett Jones – HR and steal yesterday as he went 2-for-5.  On the season, he’s sitting at 21 homers and 10 steals with a .305 average.  That’s in 292 at-bats.  I think Robot Jones might officially be overrated next year, unless everyone thinks he’ll be overrated which could make him underrated or just rated.  Hard to say.  If I had to guess, I think people will assume he’s a fluke and he’ll go later than he should.

Josh Beckett – Scratched from his start vs. the Jays.  I wouldn’t wait around to see if he starts again this season if you need starters.  Chances are the Sawx throw him for only a few innings as a tuneup for the playoffs, if they throw him at all.

Brett Gardner – Gardner, Melky, Hinske, Shelley “I Will High Five You So Hard Your Momma Feels It” Duncan, Miranda-Something-Or-Other, Ramiro Pena and Cervelli.  What is the Yankees lineup a day after clinching?  Yes, that’s right.  We would’ve also accepted, what the Yankees lineup would’ve l0oked like all year if they had the same injuries as the Mets?  For fantasy baseball purposes, this isn’t great that your Yanks are sitting, but I don’t think Girardi is going to want them rusty so the regulars should see at least 4 games this week.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 Ks.  With only one start left on the year, his ERA is 2.61.  Zoinks!  Of course, I’d love for him to strikeout more guys, but it’s hard to argue with his year.  Of course, he’s no Wandwagon.  But who is?

Anibal Sanchez – 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 walks and that’s why I wouldn’t ever start him.

John Danks – 9 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Every time I think I’m done with Danks (last game 6 IP, 7 ER), he pulls me back in with a start like this.  I’m warning you now, I’m going to like him again next year.

Cole Hamels – 6 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Damn you, Verducci Effect.

Miguel Tejada – 4-for-5 as he had his second 4 hit game in three days while batting over .500 in the last week.  At 13 homers, 5 steals and a .313 average, he’s been one of the biggest surprises this year for me.  Since those numbers aren’t that overwhelming, you can imagine how much I expected of him this year.

Gabe Kapler – HR yesterday.  Now that’s how you break a fast.

Grant Balfour – Got the save yesterday because when the bottle stopped spinning it was pointing at him.

Ervin Santana – 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 Ks as the Angels win the West.  Count on most of the Angels lineup sitting or phoning it in tomorrow.  That’s a slight endorsement for the Rangers starter tomorrow, Feldman.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-3, 3 Runs and a RBI when he was replaced by Millar.  No word if he left because of a serious injury or just to emphasis how scary it is that I care what happened to him.

Colby Rasmus – This video was shot exactly 500 yards from Colby Rasmus.  If you think that is bad, you should see the one for Chris Davis.  It’s just a guy singing honkytonk at a Dallas bar and striking out with every woman he tries to serenade.

The Tigers added Aubrey Huff to complement Jim Leyland’s puff.  When the Detroit Free Press hit the streets to find out what Tigers fans thought of this trade, they were met by mixed reactions.  Some fans asked for change, others shot at them. Huff should be added to the 1st base/DH mix with Carlos Guillen heading out to left field.  Huff’s value could go up a bit, but he needs to hit for him to have any value.  Best case scenario, he gets 8 homers over the next month and hits .330. Remember, that’s best, not realistic.  Marcus Thames’s value is hurt the most with the trade, but Thames is an estuary so he knows the importance of trading.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Nate McLouth – Was nursing a hamstring injury, then he started Saturday and aggravated it.  So now he heads to the DL for two weeks.  Terrific.  I’m so glad I own this schmohawk.  Can’t ya tell?  Aren’t I oozing with McLove?  He’s been a total waste for about two months now, but at least he was leading off and getting some Runs.  Now the only runs he’ll be getting are from Mexican food.  I officially hate McLousy.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday as he tied Pujols for the major league lead in homers for a millisecond until Pujols took the lead back.  Do people dare to draft Reynolds before David Wright next year?  I wouldn’t, but I’m beginning to think some will.

Max Scherzer – 5 IP, 9 runs, but only 3 were earned.  Ticker shock!

Tommy Hanson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 Ks.  I mentioned Hanson yesterday in the rookie pitchers who might get shutdown thingamaboob.

Vladimir Guerrero – 2 HRs yesterday with 5 RBIs.  A fifth of his homers in one game.  Guess that stops his owners from taking a fifth of anything.

Ervin Santana – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks.  As I said after his last start (I think it was last start, I write a lot of these), I like Ervin to a certain respect now.  He’s probably owned in your league because of his name, but if he’s not, he should be.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!

Joe Martinez – 5 IP, 1 ER.  Start everyone against the Mets!!!  Three exclamation marks for emphasis.

Justin Morneau – Left the game with dizziness.  No word on whether he’ll need a trip to the Dizzabled List.

Francisco Liriano – 2 IP, 7 ER.  Member that corner he turned last week?  Yeah, he turned the other corner and kicked your dog.

Tommy Hunter – 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  Much closer to the kind of games I expect to see from Tommy Hunter.  Still wouldn’t own him.  Maybe next year.  Later, Tommy Hunter, if that’s your real name.

Rajai Davis – You can call him Ray.  You could call him Jai.  You could him RJ.  Just say natural.  Either way, he just stole another base.  SAGNOF!

Kevin Correia – 6 IP, 0 ER and a No Decision.  I love me my HodgePadres, but this might be why I’m struggling for Wins in every league.

Ted Lilly – 6 IP, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks vs. Padres.  Was a gimme first start back, but that’s all right, they still count.

Matt Holliday – Fouled a ball off his toe in the ninth inning.  Still ran hard to first on the next swing, but then left the game.  I’m gonna guess they’re going to call this day-to-day.  (BTW, isn’t it weird how week-to-week is worse than day-to-day, but minute-to-minute is worse too?)

Stephen Strasburg – Signed with the Nats for over $15 million.  I’d pay him in pennies.  No rolls either.  Make that Viennese putz roll them himself.  I don’t think we see Strasburg this year and if we do, he’s not going to give you much of anything in one year leagues.

Ryan Doumit – 0-for-5, batting .222 on the year.  I’m all for the Ron Popeil, “Set It and Forget It” method of dealing with catchers, but Doumit’s been awful.

Garrett Jones – 2-for-4 with a HR yesterday.  We all want something beautiful.  Man, I wish Garrett Jones was beautiful, but he’s still batting .226 vs lefties.

Lastings Milledge – 2-for-4, and a steal.  I think he stole second base off the Pirates reliever, Jesus Colome, simply to clarify what he meant in his Karaoke Revolution-aided, Cristal-fueled song, “Going To Second On Jesus Colome.”

Jason Bay has been terrible.  Like Don Mattingly’s wife in a mugshot terrible.  In June, J-Bay hit .230 and 4 homers, but he was hitting the cover off the ball in June compared to July.  In July, he’s hitting .203 with 1 homer.  This month Garrett Jones has hit more homers during REM sleep.  The optimist in me says Bay will hit 15 homers and .300 the rest of the way with ten steals.  The pessimist in me thinks he’ll be benched in favor of Chris Duncan.  The realist looks at all of his splits and sees a guy that has been consistent throughout his career, minus a season (2007) when he was battling knee problems.  The surrealist in me thinks Bay will hit a line drive up the middle that will ricochet off the pitcher and shoot to the 1st baseman who will smack the ball into center, then the ball will slowly roll back towards the infield until God tilts the field and the ball rolls towards the 3rd baseman, but God tilts too far and the field freezes causing the ball to roll back towards the catcher.  In all likelihood, Bay’s 2nd half should be somewhere in the realist realm (though it would be cool if the surrealist was spot-on).  I think Bay can give you 10+ homers, .280 average and a handful of steals.  Right now, I’m actively trying to acquire him in one league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard – Back to the DL.  In related news, George Sherrill was an All-Star in 2008, Adam Jones in 2009 and Chris Tillman is about to be called up.

Ted Lilly – After he was rocked by the Phils, I said he might end up on the DL.  Lo and behold, voilà, alas, see that, told ya so, etc.  Lilly’s now on the DL.  Will miss about a month.

Kevin Millwood – Left after two innings because of tightness in his glutes.  That never bothered Richard Simmons.

Chad Gaudin/John Lannan – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners and 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, respectively, with two no decisions.  Watching the Nats and Padres really tested my love for baseball.  I don’t want to test fate for the off chance Tom Paciorek is rehired, but listening to Bob Carpenter and Dibble is like sitting next to Ted Striker on an airplane.

Ryan Zimmerman – Since May when he hit .342, he’s hitting .238 with 5 homers and nary a steal.  This guy has 9 homers and is batting .260.  This guy is Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Everth Cabrera – It was about five games ago, I said I’m selling back all of my old EverCab CDs at Amoeba, now he has 4 straight games with a steal.  SAGNOF!

Kyle Blanks – HR yesterday.  Rudy’s pride and joy now has three homers in the last week (while batting about .240).

Daric Barton – 2-for-4, after he finally did something he left the game with a hamstring strain.  If he were a bigger name, he could have had the lead with the title, Barton Fink.

Dallas Braden – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER and 16 baserunners.  I sat him in The Jetstream.  I’m going to give him his next start vs. the Blue Jays at home.  If that doesn’t work out, then bye-bye Braden.

Brett Gardner – Headed to the DL with a broken left thumb.  So much for the Fonzie impersonations.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Sticking with the newly-established Brett theme, Cecil now has three solid starts in a row and gets Oakland next.

Joe Blanton – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Now has a 2.55 ERA through the last two months.  I’ve been starting him everywhere for the last three weeks in a 12 team league.  I’d own him in a 10 team league at this point.

Julio Lugo – Batting .571 since the trade to the Cards and has a homer and a steal.  Lugo wouldn’t be the first middle infielder lemon that LaRussa turned into lemonade.

John Smoltz – 5 IP, 6 ER.  I know he had a lot of great years.  But your nostalgia is hurting you like when you sneak off into your attic and look at photos of you with your one true love.  Burn the photos, man.  She’s married with kids.

Nolan Reimold – .417 and three steals since The Break.  No idea where this newfound speed is coming from, but he’s capable of a few week streak where he’s ownable in all leagues.

Kelly Johnson – 3-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  Whatever Yunel was drinking last week, Johnson seems like he’s bogarting it now.

Jason Schmidt – 3 IP, 4 ER.  Yup, sounds about right.

Russell Martin – Hit his third homer yesterday.  He would be leading the league if this were April 7th.

Anthony Swarzak – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Seth Smith – 1-for-2, 1 steal.  After being declared the starting left fielder, he didn’t get the start Friday or Saturday.  Obviously Jim Tracy put starting in quotes.

Aaron Cook – 7 IP, 2 ER and the Win.  The third starter I had going yesterday in my crapfecta of pitchers (the other two were Lannan and Gaudin).  As I’ve said (numerous times) before, there is so much pitching out there you don’t have to have the exciting names (Liriano, Ervin Santana, Smoltz, Porcello, any number of rookie pitchers) to be competitive in pitching.  Boring works too.

Justin Morneau – 2 HRs yesterday as he makes his case for MVP.  Judge Grey presiding in the case of Morneau versus the AL field.  Without the runs and A-Rod hanging with Madge, what do you got?  A sucka in a uniform callin’ his shot…

Ervin Santana – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  He’s mocking you now.  You took the flier; it didn’t work.  Let him go.  You’ll feel much better when he’s doing this to someone else’s team.

Gerardo Parra – Rico Suave’s mocking me now.  I held him for so long in a deep league.  Since I dropped him last week (4 games ago), 2 homers, 7 RBIs, 4 Runs and one steal.

Tony Pena Jr. – To go reverse Ankiel on us and become a pitcher.  If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em…