Fantasy Baseball Advice

Achilles (Tennessee Mash – RCL 25) held on to the lead in the overall standings with 108 points, but things have tightened up. Big Magoo (Matthew Berry is a Tool) moved up a couple of spots to 2nd, just 1 point back. Trini (Psychic Friends Network – RCL 22) holds down 3rd with 105, while Playin’ The Field (Beef SAGNOF!) and Team Birdis (RCL 3) round out the top 5 with 104 points each. Got Heem (RCL 9) made the biggest move this week, gaining 17 points and jumping from 384th to 159th place in the standings. RCL 9 and the ECFBL have the top competitive index of 104.

There was mention this week in RCL 40 of Josh Hamilton or Adam Jones possibly being “steal of the draft.” Number 1 ranked Hamilton had an average draft position of 35.2 while Jones was at 71.8. Then there’s #2 Carlos Beltran (122.4) and #5 Edwin Encarnacion (207.4). How about Lance Lynn, who was drafted in just 6 leagues and is now ranked #7?  According to the Razzball Player Rater, Hamilton has gained over $44 in value, and is now worth $24 more than anyone else. Lynn has gained over $33, followed by Beltran ($32.4) and undrafted Fernando Rodney ($30.3). Since Lynn and Rodney were valued at $1 in the preseason, that probably makes them the top pick and pickup, respectively, so far.

Expert League: Mastersball Carey (Ryan Carey) bounced back and retook first place from RotoWire Del Don. Meanwhile Rudy and Grey went in opposite directions. Even Grey’s pitching let him down this week, finishing with just 1 win and ratios of 4.25 and 1.30. On the other hand, Rudy’s team moved up to 3rd place with 84 points and just missed earning top pitching honors, collecting 7 wins and 8 saves, with an ERA of 1.86 and 0.97 WHIP.

Trades: After last week’s 19 trades, the wheeler-dealers rested. Just 6 exchanges involving 18 players this week, highlighted by Uncle Robbies Daffiness Boys dumping the slumping Howie Kendrick in the ECFBL for the excitement of Eric Hosmer! In Ones are GOOD, right?, the Amazing Ocelots traded Felix Hernandez and Mike Adams to NYC Matthole for Brandon Morrow and Jake Peavy. Krispie Young and Yu Darvish were also among the players changing teams. You can find all the trades in the fantasy baseball forums. Look for the RCL under “Everything Else.”

Weekly Leaders

Fastballs At Ridgemont High (Schmohawk in Training) was the top hitting team this week. They hit .298 with 18 home runs and 59 RBI, 55 runs, and 14 steals. Jonathan Lucroy (.375/8 RBI/2 SB), Ryan Braun (.444/7 RBI/3 SB), Mike Trout (.444/2 HR/4 SB), and Ian Desmond (.344/2 HR/6 RBI/2 SB) all provided speed and power.

Average: .329 (Afghani Buzkashi – Fausto or Roberto?)
Runs: 61 (Thunder Muscle – Fantasy Master Lotharios)
HR: 18 (Fastballs At Ridgemont High, Big Magoo, Votto-erotic Asphyxiation, We’ve got the runs, Barking Basset Hounds, Coach McGuirk, Juicin Aint EZ- The A-Rod Story)
RBI: 59 (Sclerotic Whips – Yu Ain’t Goldschmidt, Fastballs At Ridgemont High)
SB: 20 (Super Tecmo Magic Rabbits – Myrtle’s Acres)

Urine  Sample (RCL 44) took pitching honors with an ERA of 3.39 and 1.17 WHIP with 80 Ks, 6 wins, and 13 saves. Jim Johnson (4 Saves/2.25/1.00), J.J. Putz (3 Saves/0.00/1.25), and Alfredo Aceves (2 Saves/0.00/1.07) led their relief corps, while Yovani Gallardo and Gio Gonzalez anchored the starting rotation.

Ks: 99 (Dueling Beaver Traps – RCL 44)
Wins: 9 (Rank Railheads – RCL #40)
Saves: 13 (Pliny the Elder – Myrtle’s Acres, NYC Matthole – Ones are GOOD right?, Urine  Sample – RCL 44)
ERA: 0.95 (Worldwide Suicide – Ones are GOOD right?)
WHIP: 0.89 (Worldwide Suicide – Ones are GOOD right?)

TEAM OF THE WEEK – May 14 – 20
Rank Railheads (RCL #40)
101/333 (.303) 50 R/17 HR/52 RBI/9 SB	108.2 IP 84 K/9 W/2.98/1.25/4 S
Andrew McCutchen and Martin Prado paced the Railheads’ offense this week. McCutchen hit 4 home runs and drove in 7, scored 6, and stole a base. Prado added a homer while hitting .519. Buster Posey (.381/5 RBI) and Carlos Ruiz (.476/6 Runs/1 HR/7 RBI/2 SB) made carrying 2 catchers seem like a good idea. Josh Reddick had only 4 hits, but 3 were dingers. 9 different pitchers picked up wins, with Ervin Santana putting up the best numbers: 15 strikeouts/1.32 ERA/1.10 WHIP. David Price (Win/13 K), Jason Motte (1 Win/1 Save), and Joel Hanrahan (3 Saves) were also key contributors.

David Robertson to the DL for three weeks with a left oblique strain.  2009 was the Year of the Oblique, then there was the Middle Infieluenza Outbreak of Twenty-Ten, and 2011 was a war between General Soreness and Major Discomfort.  This year is The Closepocalypse.  If you’re a closer and gonna go to the DL, at least get your make-believe plague right. (Oh no, I Can Haz Razzburger has taken over the site!!!  Guys and four girl readers, picture the earth is a lolzpop, then this is The Closepocalypse.  My apologies, but our advertisers asked if I could bring in more of the teenaged Asian girl demographic.)  So Rafael Soriano will continue to get saves.  I wouldn’t assume the Yankeensteins will just go to Robertson when he’s healthy, so it’s imperative and other serious-sounding words to grab Soriano.  Bee tee dubya, it’s crazy how much Soriano sounds like Sanrio, right?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brett Lawrie – Got two marginal-to-bad strike calls on him and went DRUNK HULK on the ump.  DRUNK HULK WISH UMP BAD THINGS LIKE HAVE TO TEACH FIELDING TO EDWIN ENCARNACION.  I hope the fact that Lawrie was right about the lousy calls gives him solace when he gets his 5-10 game suspension.

Freddie Freeman – Day-to-day with corneal abrasion.  I always thought corneal abrasion was being constipated after you ate corn.  Eh, what do I know?

Kevin Youkilis – On Wednesday, he will begin a minor league assignment.  That assignment is to re-injure himself so Middlebrooks can keep playing.  If he fails, Middlebrooks will be back in the minors in a week.

Josh Beckett – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Nothing kills the inspiration for country song writing like a start vs. the Mariners.

Alfonso Soriano – Ended his HR drought on his 116th AB.  He’s also at 1 SB.  He went from 40/40 to probably 40 in 10 years.

Bryan LaHair – 1-for-4 with his 10th homer.  *phone rings*  “This is Grey.”  “LaHair  LaHere.  Sell this!”  *dial tone*

Chris Heisey – Has now started three games in a row and is 6 for his last 7.  In mixed leagues, it’s still wait and see right now, but he’s got a nice bat if Dusty would stop chewing on his toothpick long enough to let him play.

Johnny Cueto – 4 IP, 5 ER and his ERA is still 1.89.  Ridiculous.  I wouldn’t freak out just yet, ERAs aren’t meant to be that low.  Lance Lynn, “Shh!”

Matt Carpenter – 1-for-4 with his third homer as Berkman sat out sore.  Well, at least I didn’t have to talk about Craig’s three hits.  D’oh!

Jon Jay – Onto the DL with shoulder soreness.  Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman can shift over to CF if the Cards schedule all home games in 2007.  Short of that, it’s going to be a blahtoon of Skip Schumacker and Shane “Reggie Cleveland All-Star” Robinson in CF.  If you don’t have the DL room, feel free to drop Jay in shallow leagues.

Jason Motte – 1 IP, 1 ER as he blew his 2nd save, but Dolis returned volley with a run, so Motte got the win.  With The Closepocalypse, it’s a wonder some games ever end.

Bartolo Colon – 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 12 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Oh, no, Bartolo needs another collagen injection!  FWIWuertz, there should be a DRUNK BARTOLO Twitter account.

Cliff Lee – Pitched 8 innings of one run, 10 K ball against the Astros, but he still couldn’t earn his 1st win of the year because of a blown save by Chad Qualls.  Really?  Chad Qualls?  Fine, Papelbon needs a breather now and then but that’s the 2nd best option in the Phillies’ pen?  Ruben Amaro is tugging on something and it ain’t no McGraw.

Hunter Pence – 3-for-5 with his 8th and 9th homers, raising his RBIs to 25.  You can set your watch by Pence’s stats, and right now it’s 9:25.

Vance Worley – Scratched due to a sore arm.  If it’s sore, stop scratching!

Mike Moustakas – Hit his 5th homer yesterday.  Go, go, go, go, go, go, go…  It’s Greek Lightning!

Colby Lewis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  We talk a bit about Colby later today in our podcast.  You can hardly wait.  No, you!

Scott Van Slyke – 0-for-4 as he got the start in the Dodgers’ outfield (and in the three hole), and will continue (to start in the outfield) while Kemp’s on the DL.  In Triple-A this year, he had 8 homers and a .336 average, showing solid plate discipline, but that was in the PCL.  Van Slyke looks like a ‘just okay’ grab for NL-Only leagues if you’re an outfielder down.  I will say this, he’s a much better fielder than Bobby Bonilla’s son.

Jake Peavy – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Cruised through 5 innings against the tough Tiger lineup, then got blasted for six in the 6th.  Ventura should’ve pulled him before he gave up the 3rd/4th/5th runs on a homer to Ryan friggin’ Raburn.  I think Ventura went to pull him out and Peavy’s southern drawl reminded him of Nolan Ryan and he wanted him to suffer.

Travis Ishikawa – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and 2 homers.  Eh, he’s nothing but a deep NL-Only flyer. Does that make sensei?  See, he is Sucky-san.

Jose Valverde – Left yesterday’s game with back stiffness that isn’t supposed to be serious.  Too bad, I was hoping for a reason why he’s been so terrible all year.  Octavio Dotel ended up saving the game after allowing two runs to be tacked onto Valverde’s line.  Thanks, friend!  I grabbed Benoit then dropped him immediately for Dotel.  My figuring is Dotel has a bit more closer experience.  He’s cagey!  It could easily be Benoit who sees saves too.  If anyone knows exactly which closer will be used while Valverde is on the mend, Dotel!

Max Scherzer – 4 IP, 5 ER.  You know how they’re doing that dopey MLB cave thing where they take a bunch of fans and subject them to every inning of every game like it’s Clockwork Orange?  I have a spinoff for MLB.  Tell one guy, while he’s been cooped up in the fan cave for the last two months, the entire west coast was wiped out due to an earthquake.  Then compare that heart rate with his when he owns both Scherzer and Gallardo in fantasy.

Anthony Bass – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  This comes two starts after he gave up 6 ER to Miami, so I’d grab Bass, but get ready to throw him back.

Josh Johnson – 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks with his first win, but second quality start in a row.  By Josh, I think he’s got it!  Sorry, that’s terrible.

Omar Infante – 4-for-5, 1 run and 2 RBIs.  Okay, I’d trade you Zack Cozart for Infante right now.  Can we make that happen?

Bryce Harper – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  On the bright side, ESPN’s 24 hour Harper news cycle has a 2nd highlight.

Stephen Strasburg – 4 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  The sub-par start was due to him being bothered by the ointment, Hot Stuff, in his groin area.  Now when he’s pitching well, Nats fans can yell, “It’s da bomb!” and when he’s pitching poorly, they can yell, “It’s da balm!”

Ervin Santana – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Pitchers like Ervin should have their own category.  They’re not Hodgepadres.  They’re not Marginers.  They’re mixed league starters that are must-starts against weaker offenses, then you pray in other starts.  Maybe you suggest a glossary term in the comments.

Albert Pujols – 3-for-4, 2 RBIs.  And just like that he’s hitting .212!  Yeah, that’s still not so good.

Mike Trout – 3-for-4, 3 runs and a slam (3) and legs (3).  Maybe he can have a half of a blurb on the ticker right when ESPN HARPER is going to commercial.

Adam Jones – 2-for-3, 2 runs and also a slam (11) and legs (6).  Let’s play a little game.  Who’s higher on the Razzball Player Rater?  Ryan Braun or Jones?  Bruce or Jones?

Wei-Yin Chen – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Lowered his ERA to 2.45 but unless I lowered my standards (see what I did there?) I wouldn’t pick him up in a mixed league.

Elliot Johnson – 2-for-4, I’m not going to point out again that he’s hot but I will point out that I’m not pointing out that he’s hot.

Alex Cobb – Sounds like he could take Niemann’s spot in the rotation.  He didn’t exactly shine last year in his call-up (6+ K/9, 3.90 xFIP), but in the minors he was able to push his K-rate towards 9 with decent ratios.  In AL-Only leagues, I’d grab him if you need to *pinkie to mouth* Cobble together some pitching.  And that was corny on the Cobb.  I’m on a roll!  Literally, it’s pumpernickel.

Derek Lowe – 9 IP, 0 ER, 10 baserunners, 0 Ks vs. Twins.  It was throwback day at Target Field.  Derek Lowe pitched like it was 2002, and the Twins hit like it was the Dead Ball Era.

Michael Brantley – 2-for-4 with a steal.  Now hitting around .350 in the last week with one steal.  Well, it’s better than batting .150 with nothing.  Hey, Hosmer!

Shin Soo-Choo – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 1 RBI and his 2nd homer.  He was Soo-Overdue.

A.J. Pierzynski – 5-for-5. 3 RBIs, 2 runs with 4 singles and a double.  Solid year for A.J. (.288, 24 RBIs is 4 more than Konerko) although I keep thinking he’s on Arizona.  That’s A.J. Pollock which is really close depending on how you pronounce it.

Yoenis Cespedes – Cleared for all baseball activities except hitting.  Cool, he can spit and grab himself now.

Manny Ramirez – Billy Beane knows that the Johnny Gomes show isn’t going to do too well in summer re-runs so get ready for May 30th when Manny brings his brand of zany mediocrity to Oakland’s part-time DH slot.  His show is called, “Once Too Manny” with Jerry Blevins as The Bleaver.

Hey, I’m Higgins and I’m going to be posting updates about our Fantasy Razzball leagues.  If you are not familiar with Fantasy Razzball, it is a league format where us truly masochistic fantasy baseballers try to build the worst fantasy baseball team possible. Full rules can be found here.

Now that we are over a month into the season it is time to not only look at the master standings and applaud those that have successfully been terrible, but also put on our 20/20 Hindsight Glasses and mock the bad performances in the land of bad performances.  Six leagues of ten were formed and thus far the king of the anti-champions is Pyramid Lake Cui-ui, coming out of Division 3 with 1,550 points.  Fueling his super futility is his drafting of three of the top six positions players on the player rater: Emilio Bonifacio (151 points, 1st round), Clint Barmes (148, 3rd), and Marlon Byrd (139, 15th). No slouch at being terrible on the mound either, he has milked five losses out of Ervin Santana after picking him up as a free agent and watching him become the #1 pitcher on the board with 119 points. Congratulations on your early lead and skills at assembling a terrible team, Pyramid Lake Cui-ui! If we find out you are Dayton Moore in disguise, you will be disqualified for cheating.

Looking back at draft day we can recognize some early breakthroughs and busts (other than Billy Butler’s). In 2011 Adam Dunn put up an incredible league-best 608 points, and as a result he was taken in the first round of every draft this year. Those hoping for a repeat from Big Donkey, complete with the all-important first base eligibility, have been pummeled with a net total of -1 points so far. Whoops!

Meanwhile Austin Jackson‘s 181 strikeouts and only 10 home runs in 2011 made him #3 on the board with 503 points and a favorite for 2012 Fantasy Razzball MVP as he went first overall in 4 out of the 6 drafts (and second overall in Razzball 5, where team My Sports Rumors either missed the draft or didn’t get the league memo as he took Miguel Cabrera first overall). What has Ajax rewarded those early drafters with here in 2012? Just 14 points in 118 at-bats as he hits .322 and is “only” striking out 19% of the time.  Man, he’s gotta get better at being worse!  Confused?  Me too!

And the breakthrough performances through the first month and change? Danny Espinosa leads all players with 165 points as he hits .191 and strikes out 30% of the time, but he was a top 20 player in 2011 and was drafted as early as the 2nd round. The real surprise player in the rankings is Albert Pujols, who was a top-five player until last week and comes in with 119 points in 126 at-bats. Undrafted by anyone not pulling a La Russa and falling asleep at the wheel to autodraft their team, El Hombre is racking up razz points like it’s 1909. He has been picked up by only those with the biggest cojones, as he could quickly go from 2011 Adam Dunn to 2012 Adam Dunn who I guess could go back to 2011 Adam Dunn but is being owned like he’s 2012 Adam Dunn, or unowned or…  Yeah, I’m not sure, but there you have it!

Until next time, keep an eye out for those AAA call-ups and injury replacements and anyone getting playing time with the Minnesota Twins

Welcome to our second FanDuel Freeroll of the season. And congrats to fyeabaseball who took 1st out of 337 entries and won a cool 75 toad hides. I came in 70th and am a disgrace to my family. This week’s freeroll is on Friday the 13th which means Peyton Hillis will jinx a Ricky Nolasco no-no.

Here are some possible plays for Friday’s games:

P: Ricky Nolasco: Ricky is 5-1 against the Astros with 2 complete games.

C: Ryan Hanigan: He is a pretty decent 5 for 5 against against Jordan Zimmerman. I think that is good. Let me get my calculator out.

1B: Justin Morneau: Morneau is 2 for 4 off Matt Harrison.

2B: Rickie Weeks: Jair Jurrjens has given up 3 hits in 7 at bats to Weeks.

2B: Robinson Cano: Cano has hit Ervin Santana very well in his career going 11 for 32 against him with 4 donkaruskis.

3B: Jack Hannahan: Your deep thought for today is that Hannahan is 6 for 11 off Luke Hochevar with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 5 ribbies.

3B: Chone Figgins: Bartolo Colon has allowed 5 hits in 12 at bats to Figgy Cent.

SS: Derek Jeter: He’s been hitting well early and is 17 for 38 with 3 home runs against Ervin Santana.

SS: Asdrubal Cabrera: Luke Hochevar has not pitched well against the current Cleveland roster and Cabrera has hit 7 of 19 against him.

OF: Austin Jackson: Jackson is 3 for 6 against Jake Peavy and has been hot to start the season.

OF: Cameron Maybin: Maybin is 4 for 10 off Aaron Harang with a homer and has been playing wellish. Not Welsh.

OF: Shin-Soo Choo: Choo is 13 for 23 against Hochevar with 4 doubles, 2 homers and 10 RBIs.

Now let’s take a look at some of the early bargains at each position in FanDuel so far this season. There is a balance you have to make with value versus bad assness. You’ll see that Miguel Cabrera has been dominant so far AND has the most points per $1,000 spent (for non pitchers). So there is a win/win situation, but that’s not always the case. Jeff Samardzija is a risky player who really paid off last time but Felix Hernandez who costs a whole Yugo more is safer and put up 25 FanDuel Points in his first start. In hindsight you would choose Samardzija everyday, but we aren’t always going to be that lucky. That’s what makes the game fun I guess.

Some analyses strike gold.  Some analyses are an immediate bust.  It’s the third type – the ‘fool’s gold’ type – that are the most frustrating.  After three years of middling predictions, I think my ‘risky pitcher’ analysis from a couple years ago is falling into that 3rd category.

Over the past 7 years, about 24% of pitchers coming off seasons with 2,700+ pitches fit one of the two dropoff criteria (< 2,000 pitchers or, roughly, missing 1/3 of the season or more) or have a significant drop in their skills (measured as xFIP increased by .75+).

I figured that if I could identify some commonalities among the injured pitchers in past years that it would help me predict which pitchers were more risky in upcoming years.  After 3 years of hitting the yearly average in my predictions, I’m resigned to the fact that the findings in my initial analysis were either fluky or I’m really bad at applying the findings.  (Or I need Tom Verducci’s assistance at being less self-critical.)

Below are my results from last year.  About 20% of pitchers had a dropoff season – my most notable misses are Josh Johnson (had predicted him the previous year), Jonathan Sanchez, Dallas Braden, Clayton Richard, Brian Matusz, and Brett Cecil.  (Wow, that list falls off fast, doesn’t it?).  My most impressive accomplishment was predicting Gio Gonzalez gets traded to the Nationals and being the first on record to nickname him Nat Gio.  Hopefully he keeps getting as much drop on his curveball as the breasts typically found in Nat Geo.

Despite my lack of success, I still shy away from drafting more than one pitcher with two of the following three criteria:   1) Throws a lot of sliders, 2) 700+ MLB pitch differential from previous year, and 3) Coming off first season with a full workload (2,500+ pitches).  See below for the dropoff statistics of pitchers that fall under these categories.

Here are ten otherwise solid pitchers that I’d prefer to have no more than 1 on my team if I could avoid it.  Consider my tepid performance to date before taking it too much to heart

(notes: pitch increase totals only include MLB, only includes pitchers who had close to a full season last year – obviously players who were injured most/all of last year like Santana and Peavy are risky.  Also shied away from known injury concerns like Marcum and Carpenter)

Michael Pineda (31.5% sliders, 2,688 pitches) – I’ve liked this guy the moment I first heard his name – probably because it made me think of empanadas which are delicious.  It seems like his poor 2nd half + velocity drop is scaring off a lot of drafters.  He went 136th in my 12-team ‘expert’ Razzball Commenter League.  Can’t argue with selecting him there but I had the 135th pick, planned to take Cory Luebke, and when he was gone, took a closer instead.

Madison Bumgarner (32.4% sliders, 1,500 pitch increase) – I love the Mad-Bum.   We drafted him in the 6th round of our 15 Team LABR mixed league.  Might’ve had him in a couple more leagues but the bidding got too high.  But last year was his first full year in the bigs and he throws a whopping 32% sliders – 4th highest among SPs – and it’s his most effective pitch (3rd best slider among starting pitchers with a wSL of 17.7 – i.e., his slider saved 17 runs above the average pitch).  His fastball came in about league average for effectiveness.  There are pitchers who can manage this type of pitch mix (Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia) but it’s a little more risky until they’ve proven they can do it in back-to-back seasons.  (NOTE: Commenters have noted that there is disagreement about Pitch F/X’s classification of Bumgarner’s cutter as a slider and that his true slider rate might be closer to 20%.  That doesn’t remove his risk but definitely a more sustainable usage rate.  I can’t think of another recent lefty who managed a 30+% slider rate and had a productive career except for Randy Johnson – I imagine Carlton had similar usage rates too.).

Jhoulys Chacin (18.9% sliders, +834 pitch increase) – Chacin was on my 2011 list but lived up to his draft value – delivering 11 wins and a 3.64 ERA.  But his K/rate dropped from 9.1 K/9 in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011.  The part that scares me most (and I mentioned this in 2010) is that he is highly dependent on breaking pitches for success and he’s in the worst home stadium for breaking pitches.  His fastball was the 7th worst in baseball amongst starters last year on a per-pitch basis (wFB/C) while his slider, curveball, and changeup were all above average.  His changeup might be his saving grace in 2012 as it was the only pitch of the four that improved in effectiveness between 2010 and 2011.  (Note:  We have him on our LABR team too….getting a little concerned.)

Brandon McCarthy (2% sliders, 2,499 pitch increase) – The formula for getting onto the cover of ESPN Magazine seems to be this:  one marginally successful season + good sense of humor + hot wife.  McCarthy was a prized prospect that White Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to swap for the Rangers’ John Danks (one of the few marks against otherwise awesome GM Jon Daniels).  He couldn’t manage more than 120 IP in a year (majors + minors) between 2005-2010.  When he did pitch, he had bad K and BB rates.  Then, after maybe spending a week at Dave Duncan sleepaway camp, he emerges in 2011 as a ground ball pitcher with great control (1.32 BB/9) to balance against a mediocre 6.5 K/9.  He’s a fine late round pick but I see little upside with a higher than average chance of missing significant time.  (Note:  For AL-only drafters, stock up on A’s SPs.  McCarthy and Colon will both likely miss time.  I like Tom Milone and Tyson Ross at the right price).

Tim Stauffer (0% sliders, 1,774 pitch increase) – Similar to McCarthy.  Prized prospect derailed by injuries.  Throws a lot of pitches that turn into ground balls once hit (I wanted to write ‘throws a lot of ground balls’ but that could be confusing and our blog is incomprehensible enough.).  His wife’s not bad to look at.  Maybe it’s his previous ‘prospect’ status that hides the fact he’s not particularly good.  He’s had a lot of success with his fastball the past two years but it’s hard to put much faith in a 90 MPH fastball that clearly doesn’t lead to a lot of swing-and-misses (6.2 K/9) or comes with pinpoint control (2.6 BB/9).  He’s a Hodgepadre so he’s got some value for home starts but I wouldn’t consider him any better than, say, Clayton Richard.

Jordan Zimmermann (24% sliders, 2,464 pitch increase) – The other Jay-Z came back from Tommy John surgery to post solid if not spectacular numbers in 2011.  His ERA and WHIP (1.15) were helped by low HR and BABIP rates.  His control was very good (1.73 BB/9) so he still projects to be solid at WHIP.  I’m wary of the fact he threw 24% sliders (his most effective pitch) and still had a mediocre K-rate (6.9 K/9).  He’s probably going to go higher in drafts than I like.

Ervin Santana (38.4% sliders, 108 pitch decrease) – I think I put Ervin Santana on the list every other year.  From 2006-2010, Ervin Santana was the bizarro-Saberhagen – good in the even years, bad in the odd years.  He broke the streak in 2011.  I just can’t sign up for a pitcher that is so dependent on the slider.

Dan Haren (0% sliders, 25 pitch increase) – Might as well go out on a limb for my 10th choice.  There aren’t many pitchers as consistently great as Dan Haren – 7 years straight of 215+ IP, 4 straight years of a sub-3.50 xFIP, a sub 2 BB/9 rate in 4 of the past 6 years.  So why the concern?  Much like Roy Halladay, Dan Haren has morphed from throwing a standard pitch mix (Fastball/Slider/Curve/Split-Finger) to relying heavily on a cut fastball.  After ditching the slider for a cutter in 2009, his cutter rate has gone from 23% to 27% to 48%.  In 2011, his cutter was the 3rd most effective on a per-pitch basis and by far the most valuable in aggregate (wCT of 30.5 runs above average was double everyone except for Halladay’s 19.5 and Gavin Floyd’s 15.5).  In fact, Haren’s cutter was the most valuable pitch in aggregate of ANY pitch in 2011.  Unlike Roy Halladay, though, Haren doesn’t have velocity to spare.  His fastball velocity has slowly decreased from 91.9 MPH in 2005 to 90.0 MPH in 2011.  His cutter was at 85 MPH (Halladay’s at 90 MPH), making it one of the slowest amongst starting pitchers.  He had great success with it in 2011 at this velocity – but the pitch really has nowhere to go but down in 2012 and the rest of his stuff isn’t good enough to warrant his ADP if the cutter fails him.