Fantasy Baseball Advice

To come up with the 20 biggest draft busts — pitcher’s edition! — I used Rudy Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. Some of the schmohawkiest pitchers, like Carlos Silva, I left off. Not because he was better than expected, but because he was as expected. That’s not a bust. This is similar to Tim Gunn’s monkey house analogy that goes something like this, “If you visit the monkey house, it smells like crap. If you live in the monkey house, it no longer smells like crap.” In each entry of the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, you’ll find the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Forget the Plunger, Call the Plumber (FPCP) metric, which I made up to illustrate how badly some of these fantasy baseball pitchers shat your proverbial house. Anyway, here’s the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, the pitchers:

20. Daniel Cabrera - No, this is the year for the breakout! No, wait… I mean, next year!… Or 2010! Yes, definitely by 2010. ADP, 329 — FPCP, 1.3

19. Matt Cain - His numbers are actually close to what I was worried Lincecum would do. Good Ks, decent ERA but an 8-14 record. ADP, 131 — FPCP, 2.1

18. Jeremy Bonderman - Frankly, I don’t know anyone that drafted him, so maybe he doesn’t deserve to be on this list. Then again, he has an average draft position of 169 so someone drafted him. Hmm… Maybe fantasy baseball is really popular in Michigan and these numbers are skewed by Tigers fans. I’ll need a statistician with lots of free time to figure this out. Email me at totallyeffinbored [at] razzball.com. ADP, 169 — FPCP, 2.5

17. Josh Beckett - Not really an awful year, but you wanted more than a 12-10 record. This is the problem with Wins. “When I say no rhyme, you say no reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 44 — FPCP, 3.7

16. Carlos Zambrano - 130 Ks in almost 190 innings is a major problem. Another problem, never knowing if you were going to get “Thanks for the no-hitter, Big Z!” or “Z just soiled my team’s linens.” ADP, 66 — FPCP, 4.9

15. Johnny Cueto - Hey, it’s the wunderkind! Hey, wunderkind, how are ya doing? Say hello to ya mother for me. Undrafted according to Mock Draft Central, but you know you drafted him. FPCP, 5.5

14. John Maine - I had high (big) apple pie in the sky hopes for this schmohawk. He gave you some stretches where he was decent. Other times, he gave you stretch marks on your ulcer. ADP, 133 — FPCP, 6.2

13. Jeff Francis - Luckily for fantasy baseballers (<–that sounds like something my Mom would say), Jeff Francis pitches at Coors so it makes dropping him feel much easier. ADP, 152 — FPCP, 6.9

12. J.J. Putz/Chad Cordero - This was supposed to be for just starters, but, well, these closers busted. Why did I put them at 12? Cause it’s my list. ADP, High — FPCP, 7.4

11. Francisco Liriano - What, you drafted him in March for six solid starts in August? Yeah, a’ight. ADP, 112 — FPCP, 9.1

10. Pedro Martinez - Watching Pedro this year, Nelson de la Rosa rolled over in his shoe box. ADP, 160 — FPCP, 9.5

9. Yovani Gallardo - At least he had the decency to go down early in the year. It still hurt watching him grab his knee like he was just put in the Figure Four Leg Lock. ADP, 135 — FPCP, 10.1

8. Ian Snell - He was supposed to be a hidden gem at the end of the draft. Instead, he was the backwash at the end of a draft beer. ADP, 154 — FPCP, 10.3

7. Chien-Ming Wang - If you drafted Wang, his injury was a blow. And that’s the only time it’s upsetting to see “blow” and “Wang” in the same sentence. ADP, 146 — FPCP, 11.2

6. Rich Hill - Right now Rich Hill is reenacting spring training using vegetables, and whenever Sweet Lou Potato tells him he’s going to the minors, he mashes him. Or not! ADP, 113 — FPCP, 12.1

5. John Smoltz - Sadly, this might be the last we see of him. Hey, I just got schmaltzy for Smoltzy. (<–alliteration in lieu of wit) ADP, 82 — FPCP, 13.9

4. Fausto Carmona - When Sabathia stood up from the Indians seesaw, Carmona fell and never recovered. ADP, 106 — FPCP, 15.6

3. Erik Bedard - It could’ve been worse. He could’ve been healthy and terrible. BTW, I picked Bedard to win the AL Cy Young. See Verlander, Justin. ADP, 39 — FPCP, 17.1

2. Aaron Harang - Instead of 184.1 innings of a 4.78 ERA with a 6-17 record, Harang should’ve put a sweaty glass down on my Reggie Jackson rookie card while recording a sex tape with my girlfriend. ADP, 72 — FPCP, 19.5

1. Justin Verlander - 200 innings of suck?! For crimey’s sake, man. Help a brother out — get injured! Take a knee! Something! BTW II, Rudy picked Verlander to win the AL Cy Young. Ladies and gentlemen, your Razzball ‘perts! ADP, 62 — FPCP, 19.7

Did Longoria outproduce Alex Gordon? Yeppers. Ryan Braun? Nopers. Somewhere in the middle’s not a bad place to be, ask Malcolm and Monie Love. Three home runs last night gave Longoria 25 on the year in only 111 games. What’s really nice to see is he hit these three after sustaining a broken wrist. He should be safe for the last week-plus of the season, but I have to think the Rays are going to rest him a bit during next week’s games because the franchise’s first playoff series means a bit more. So keep that in mind going forward. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard - Has a torn labrum and it could mean… Well, it could mean nothing for Bedard for a while, if ever again. The Mariners lost Adam Jones, George Sherrill and three prospects for Nadir Bupkus. “Bad trades are a part of baseball; I mean who can forget Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson for gosh sakes.”

Shaun Marcum - Marcum down for done.

Cameron Maybin - 4-for-4 yesterday. Right now, I’m not that excited for this year, but he might get a legit shot next year.

Ben Sheets - In a followup to his sore arm, the GM said today, “He’s got pain, and he sometimes can pitch with it, and he sometimes can’t.” Ringing endorsement! I went over why dropping Sheets was probably the way to go.

Troy Percival - Pitched for the first time in a week, throwing a scoreless eighth, only to watch Wheeler blow the save. Percival will now be back in the closer’s role as long as he stays healthy.

Chris Perez - More than likely not in the closer’s role anymore as he tried to give away last night’s game. Jason Motte figures to see any saves in the last week plus.

Rickie Weeks - First at-bat in 5 days. Every time Ned Yost started Weeks you know Sveum was cringing, muttering that if he were manager he would never start Weeks.

Zach Greinke - 8 IP, 2 hits. I think at this point I’ve been Greinke’d.

Justin Duchscherer - From the files of, “Dur.” His bullpen session was cut short because of pain. Surprise, surprise. He’s done for the year.

Tim Lincecum - Bit of a scary moment for Lincecum in yesterday’s game. The 118 pitches? Nah, he usually does that by the seventh. The scary moment came in the second when Lincecum tried to bunt a Randy Johnson fastball and it smashed his fingers into the bat. He came back with taped fingers and continued on like nothing happened. Later on, Lincecum won a between-innings chili cook-off, taught some youngsters how to use radiometric dating to disapprove The DaVinci Code and then saved Dunn out in the kiddie pool. Wear floaties, big man!

James ‘Dr. Freeze’ Andrews - bah!  Not when Canada’s finest caribou and shoulder surgeon can do it on the Canadian dime (worth $.09). Erik Bedard will go under the knife for what they are calling exploratory surgery. How appropriate for a pitcher that shares his name with a Viking. Hopefully, it turns out as well as Carlos Silva’s trip to the doctor when his rectal bleeding was diagnosed as his body repelling the massive amounts of salsa he’s eaten throughout the season. Stay tuned, this surgery could effect Bedard’s 2009. The USS Mariner has already sunk, and now they have to start worrying about next year being lost to sea. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Volstad - 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER. The Astros quadrupled their hit total of the last two games. Zoinks!

Asdrubal Cabrera - HR yesterday. Since I told you to pickup Asdrubal, he continues to be productive.

Josh Beckett - Red State Jeter threw eight innings of three hit baseball against the Rays. Encouraging sign going forward or he just likes facing the Rays? You make the call!

Shaun Marcum - Left the start with forearm numbness. Drop him. He’s done.

Fernando Tatis - Done for the year with a separated shoulder. Right now his mom must be a praying Tatis — oofa!

Ryan Shealy - Don’t skim past this name. HR yesterday and… I see you skimming. Stop! He has five home runs in the last four games. Ride the hot streak.

CC Sabathia/Prince Fielder - CC finally got his first loss.  Fielder finally is on a roll again hitting 2 HRs.  Can’t you see - it’s a see-saw.  Only one can be high at a time.

Fernando Rodney - Blew a 2 run-lead in the 9th without registering an out.  It’s become so commonplace for him to blow saves that we call Kazaam whenever he comes in.  Because if he’s pitching, it’s automatically going to be a non-save situation for the Tigers.

Todd Jones - We miss you.

Dan Haren - Nothing like pitching against SF to right the ship.  9 IP, 0 ER, 12 Ks.  The Giant offense is the equivalent of a rebound fuck….

Matt Cain - 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER. After struggling for a little over a month, just needed to face the Diamondbacks to look decent. Still wouldn’t trust him going forward.

James Parr - 4 1/3 innings, 4 earned runs and 10 hits as Parr hit a bogey.

Brandon Morrow - 4 IP, 6 ER. What frustrates me further, I told everyone not to go near him when he returned. Then he threw a great game against the Yankees and seemed to be properly stretched out. Surprise, he’s not.

Derek Lowe - Since an awful May, he’s been amazing.  127 IP, 11 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.02 WHIP.  With his sinker working so well, Torre was tempted to call him White Wang, but that name’s already taken by someone in nearby San Fernando Valley.

A young Damaso Marte worked for his father, Ojos De Serpiente, a world renown gambler, in the Colón district of the Dominican Republic. As he polished his father’s trick die, Damaso would dream of one day closing for his favorite team, the Pittsburgh Pirates. He told reporters recently, “I’d sleep with John Candelaria’s baseball card under my pillow. I would pluck my mustache so it would look thin like his. Every night I would make three pupusas for family, then I’d make an extra one for John Candelaria. I love John Candelaria.” So when you’re thinking about how great it would be for Marte to be traded from the Pirates, don’t forget these are real people with real emotions. With that said, Marte should be on the first train out of Steel City.  Everyone’s talking about Fuentes leaving the Rox, but Marte should be traded. The Pirates have shit their house for almost fifteen years. As the great Lawrence Taylor once said, “My life is in the toilet and no one’s flushing.” The same can be said of the Pirates. They need to get something for their current closer. I think John Grabow takes over for Marte, instead of Tyler Yates, even if Grabow is a lefty. Marte’s also a lefty, so whatevs. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Dan Wheeler/Grant Balfour - You could be reading this today or you could be reading this in a month and this will still hold true, Percival just hurt himself. And again. And there goes the hip. (Actually, I could see the Rays getting Street. You heard it here first. Unless you’re reading this after you heard it.)

Leo Nunez - Baby Got Back! (Not as in possesses a large ass, but rather “Got Back” as in has returned.)

Santiago Casilla - Could be the closer by August. Aw, sookie, that’s soon.

Francisco Liriano - I know I told you about a month ago that Liriano would be called up any day now. Well, technically it still is any day now. In Liriano’s past five starts, he’s K’d 42 in 35 IP and has a .26 ERA. Liriano’s agent, Sammy Glick, is not happy and thinks the Twins are stalling to avoid paying Liriano. Judge Joe Brown, we’ve got a grievance!

Gio Gonzalez - You don’t need to rotate Scott Rolen in for a short schedule day that bad. Just hold Gonzalez for now and chillax.

Juan Pierre - If you need steals, he’s about to return. I’d write more but I’m currently singing, “I kissed a girl and I liked it…” I can’t get this stupid song out of my head. I hope it’s now stuck in your head, sucka! It felt so wrong… It felt so right… I feel like this is the new, “I Touch Myself” by the Divinyls. That is by no means an endorsement. Note to self: I gotta stop dating girls that chew Bubble Yum and have never heard of Sublime.

Fausto Carmona - Actually, I just picked him up in a ten team league. He shouldn’t be on waivers anywhere and if he is, you’re a fat-cist.

Chris Young - Back from a long DL-stint after taking a Pujols liner off his noggin. Word in the Gas Lamp is Young should start next week for the Padres. As with any Padres pitcher, at Petco they will look like Warren Spahn. On a side note, I wonder if Young wakes up sweaty in the middle of the night yelling Pujols and his girlfriend says, “I’m not in the mood.”

Casey Kotchman - Maybe it’s because his name sounds like Crotchman. Maybe it’s the way he was laid up with mono for a one and a half years. Maybe I just have a thing for Caseys. In deep leagues, I’m buying.

Chase Utley - Could people be down on Utes because he hasn’t done much in the last month and a half? Well, sell them Dustin Pedroia and Dook-sheer and get Utley. Recognize!

Adam Wainwright - A source says that Wainwright might return as the closer. The source? Some guy that goes by BigFatHippo. That’s about as credible as it gets. I wouldn’t have wrote about it, if it didn’t make so much sense. Wainwright’s been on the shelf for a while now. He should be able to get up to speed to be a closer a lot quicker than to start games. He has closed well before. The Cards need a closer. LaRussa’s certifiably crazy. It adds up to me. BigFatHippo + unsubstaniated rumor = Wainwright returns as the closer.

SELL

Huston Street - Beane may be a brilliant baseball mind, but I almost got a 1000 on my SATs. So, Beane, if you’re reading, trade Street. There’s no benefit to keep him around, as they say in the mafia. (Bee tee dubya, Street may end up the closer on his new team, as well. So don’t sell him super low.)

Erik Bedard - You, with the hair on your head, Bedard’s not coming back and if he does, what do you get? Four starts? Feh!

Roy Oswalt - He returns from the DL next week. If you got any juice in that coconut of yours, you’ll trade him quick-fast. This year, he wasn’t that good when he was healthy. It’s a lost year for R.O. Let it go. Don’t make me call a T.O.

Shaun Marcum - Was putting together a season to rival just about any starters’, then returned looking like Sandy Duncan’s left eye.

Yunel Escobar - He’s 6/2. That’s not his height. He has six home runs (yes, that’s the same as Alexis Rios) and 2 steals. Some players who have been as valuable this year, Ray Durham, Mark Ellis and Akinori Iwamura. Yu-smell.

Monday night as I wrote the roundup, I was looking around my waiver wire for possible saves. I saw Taylor Buchholz and I began to think about how likely it would be for Fuentes to get traded. The Rockies are in a division that may only need a .500 record to win it. Why are they sellers? Holliday, Fuentes? I guess it could happen, but I don’t see it. Then I came across the crapfecta of Ayala, Hanrahan and Saul Rivera. Why couldn’t Rauch be traded? Because Chad Cordero was never traded those years the Nats floundered? Didn’t seem like enough of a reason. So I turned on my giant brain and decided Luis Ayala was going to be the next Nats closer. (Maybe you remember the last time I turned on my giant brain I killed Sydney Pollack.) Well, wouldn’t you know it, Rauch was traded and Ayala became the new closer– Zoinks! Okay, Ayala may not be the closer, but here’s my reasoning why he will be the guy. (Since I deduced this using my giant brain, you may not understand my logic. Feel free to skip ahead. Those with a heart condition or pregnant women should not try and follow along.) Ayala was the setup man and Hanrahan was pitching a few innings at a time. Crazy, right?! I know! Maybe Hanrahan does move into the closer role because he’s been better of late, but clubs don’t usually make decisions that make sense (Wolf goes to the Astros!). Neither guy (or Saul Rivera) should be invested in too heavily. Rauch nailed down only 2 saves this past month and 17 saves in almost 2/3 of the season. We could be looking at 3 guys splitting up 10 saves. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Shaun Marcum - He returned from his elbow injury and gave up six earned runs in 4 2/3. The good news is, he didn’t give up seven earned runs. I’ve been saying I didn’t want him anymore when he first went on the DL.

Mark Buehrle - 7.1 IP, 1 ER. This schmohawk joins Aaron Cook as a guy that I picked up in May and that I can’t believe I still have him on a bunch of teams.

Brad Hawpe - HR. Hawpe is hawt. *cue Rosco P. Coltrane laughter*

Adam Lind - 4-for-5, HR. In deep leagues, there’s a lot worse fliers you can take than Lind.

Clayton Kershaw - Not a good game, but I’d let him start a game at home before casting him off.

Brad Ziegler - 23 2/3 straight scoreless innings streak. According to Elias Sports Bureau, “Ziegler is the first pitcher with a scoreless streak over 20 IP that has a name similar to Ian Ziering.” (Actually, the Elias Sports Bureau didn’t say that, but it sounds like it. Here’s some more things that sound like the Elias Sports Bureau might have said them. “Last Wednesday was the first time in three years that five Elias Sports Bureau employees wore the color beige,” “Seventeen Elias Sports Bureau employees sneezed today for a new all-time high,” and “There’s no one more full of shit than Stephen Baldwin.”

Ubaldo Jimenez - 1 ER, CG. If you had the Rox to start him.

Josh Willingham - I still like him, but he’s been on my bench for a week now. He needs to pretend he’s a 30/.280 guy or I’m chucking him. You’ve been warned.

Denard Span - Span’s leading off and batting .341 as CarGo hits from the nine hole. (I could see myself being a big fan of Carlos Gomez over this winter as we prepare for 2009, but right now he’s overmatched.)

Kerry Wood - May not go on the DL after all. In other news, water is… not wet?

Freddy Sanchez - If you’re suffering through Ty Wiggington or some other schmohawk at MI, Freddy Sanchez is starting to get hot. Steals? Nah. Home runs? Not many, but he could hit .330 for a month.

Joe Blanton - What, you thought he’d be good in the NL? Wait until you see how well he is when pitching in his new home.

Nick Markakis - I am Sparkakis!

Rick VandenHurk - 5 IP, no hits and he still was pulled, what does that tell you about his control? He gave up 5 walks against 7 Ks. VandenHurk and Volstad sounds like a law firm of vampires.

Eric Byrnes - Transferred from the 15-day DL to the I’m-Not-Coming-Back-This-Year-But-I’m-Going-To-Pretend-I-Will List.

Alexis Rios - Hit his 6th HR. Man, what a busted season. If you don’t have him, you may not understand what a bullet you dodged. He has comparable numbers to Victorino, and The Flying Hawaiian was on the DL earlier in the year and he lost playing time to Werth. Incredible.

Duaner Sanchez - 3 ER without recording an out as Duaner made a strong case to never get the ball in the ninth.  I think Heilman gets the ball tomorrow if the Mets have the lead. Or the Mets put some of that numbing spray shizz on Wagner’s shoulder and send him out there.

Chris Davis - HR. Okay, maybe he doesn’t need to be benched when the Rangers aren’t in Arlington.

Randy Wolf - With this trade, I see no way the Astros don’t overtake the Reds and finish in fourth. Unless the Reds trade for Barry Zito. Then the race will be on!

Erik Bedard - After tossing the ball on Sunday, he landed on the MRI table-thingie. Guess what, ya’ll? Not a good sign. Or maybe the Mariners just want an excuse to shut him down for the year and they rigged a VW Bug to look like an MRI machine and they hired some extras to play the part of doctors. In a grand Shakespearan accent, “I did Uncle Vanya in the Park and I was the dog walker in “How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days.’”